地磁场的空间相关性及其在地震预报中的应用

本文扼要叙述了震磁关系研究的现状,阐述了“震磁效应”分析的基本原理,提出了“空间相关”和“现象相关”两种“震磁效应”分析的基本方法。作者应用我国华北地区若干台站资料,以局部地区地磁场空间相关性的分析为基础,重点讨论了“空间相关法”,给出了具体震例分析的初步结果。最后,就有关“震磁效应”分析的几个问题进一步做了简要讨论。     

我国油储地球物理学研究的现状及思考

针对国家自然科学基金委员会“八五”《陆相薄互层油储地球物理理论和方法研究》重大项目的预研准备及立项研究的基本情况,阐述对油储地球物理在我国的发展现状及“九五”期间开展研究的基本思考与建议．     

群众是真正的英雄——批判地震群测群防工作中“生而知之”“上智下愚”的反动谬论

两千四百多年前,孔老二妄图挽救行将灭亡的奴隶制,为奴隶主贵族统治永恒化制造理论依据,抛出了“生而知之”和“唯上智与下愚不移”的反动谬论,竭力吹捧奴隶主是“生而知之”的“上智”、“至贵”,而广大奴隶是天生的“下愚”、“小人”,只能俯首贴耳地听任奴隶主贵族的宰割;他还恬不知耻地把自己打扮成是“天生德于予”的“圣人”。叛徒、卖国贼林彪,为了复辟资本主义,以达到他建立林家父子法西斯王朝的罪恶目的,完全继承了孔老二的衣钵,把唯心主义的“天才论”作为他搞“克己复礼”的理论纲领。林彪,这个不读书、不看报,什么学问也没有的大党阀、大军阀,狂吠什么:“不承认天才,这不是马克思主义”,他和孔老二一样自称“天才”、自比“天马”,厚颜无耻地吹嘘自己是“脑袋长得好,和别人的不一样、特别灵。”的“超人”。反过来,他恶毒诬蔑劳动人民想的是“怎样搞钱,怎样搞米”,说的是“恭喜发财”的“愚昧无知”的“群氓”、“阿斗”。这完全是颠倒历史,混淆黑白的一派胡言乱语。     

绕月探测工程的初步科学成果

嫦娥一号是我国发射的第一个月球轨道探测器, 是中国月球探测工程“绕”、“落”、“回”发展战略的第一步. 嫦娥一号于2007年10月24日在西昌卫星发射中心成功发射, 2009年3月1日受控落月于52.36°E, 1.50°S的丰富海区域, 在轨运行495天, 比预期一年的工作寿命延长4个多月, 一共获得了1.37 TB的原始科学探测数据, 在此基础上目前已生产出约4 TB科学应用数据产品. 通过对这些科学探测数据的初步分析和应用研究, 已经获得了包括“中国首次月球探测工程全月球影像图”在内的一系列科学成果, 圆满实现了预期的各项科学目标, 为推动我国月球科学和天体化学的研究和后续月球探测工程的开展奠定了重要基础.     

走滑断裂粘滑、蠕滑作用形成的地质地貌特征

在室内航片解释的基础上，依据野外现场实测资料，应用地质地貌学方法，对走滑断裂上由蠕滑作用形成的弧形，“正”、“逆”牵引变形山脊及断错变形冲沟的４种地貌形态进行了讨论，并根据这些蠕滑标志，测量了昌马断裂带中、东段的蠕滑量。给出了粘滑与蠕滑量的比值及蠕滑量占总走滑量的比例在断裂带上的分布情况     

镜泊湖全新世火山空降碎屑剖面和喷发历史

镜泊湖全新世火山群 10余座火山分成 5个小的喷发中心位居西南和东北两区 ,每个喷发中心由 2～ 4个火山组成。西南区包括“火山口森林”、“大干泡”、“五道沟”和“迷魂阵”等 4个喷发中心 ,东北区仅“蛤蟆塘”1个喷发中心。火山喷发的产物主要包括熔岩流、溅落堆积和空降堆积 ,火口的锥体主要由溅落堆积的火山渣、火山弹、熔岩饼和薄层熔岩流组成。在“大干泡”和“蛤蟆塘”两处的空降碎屑堆积可达数米厚。镜泊湖全新世火山岩分布面积近 5 0 0km2 ,岩浆主要源自“火山口森林”的1号和 4号火口。文中通过“火山口森林”4号火口空降碎屑实测剖面及其碳化木14 C定年 ,纠正了以往的14 C定年资料 ,认为镜泊湖全新世火山的喷发活动主要在距今 5 2 0 0～ 5 5 0 0a,相继由多次喷发形成 10余座火山。研究认为 ,镜泊湖地区全新世期间不存在以千年计的 3期火山喷发活动     

岩石突发失稳序列的实验研究

根据三轴压缩条件下岩石试件变形过程中多次重复发生的粘滑失稳事件，着重研究了突发失稳序列的演变特征及其影响因素。研究表明，随着错动量的增大，突发失稳的临界差应力和应力降呈现“正坡”、“负坡”和“平缓跳动”等阶段性变化，而应力降比率则渐趋减小；其变化原因主要与错动面的密接和凹凸程度、碎屑厚度、粒度、以及试件受力和刚度约束条件的改变等因素有关。突发失稳序列的变化特征，有可能为预测后续地震强弱变化的趋势提供依据     

青藏高原东北缘主要活动断裂带GPS加密观测及结果分析

为了对青藏高原东北缘海原断裂带和香山-天景山断裂带的现今走滑及逆冲运动状况进行更加精细的观测研究,我们沿甘肃兰州至宁夏中卫一线布设了1条由12个站点构成的跨断裂GPS加密测线网。该测线网的站点在空间分布上与“中国地壳运动观测网络”的已有站点相互补充,共同构成了1条平均点距约22km的密集型GPS跨断裂剖面。在第1期观测中,考虑到测区周围存在2个“中国地壳运动观测网络”的连续观测基准站(西宁XNIN、盐池YANC),我们尝试采用了各观测组未必同步的“自由观测方式”,而在数据处理中采用了GIPSY先进的“精确单点定位”策略。结果表明,由“中国地壳运动观测网络”的连续基准网作为支撑平台,在局部区域的GPS加密监测中采用灵活的“自由观测方式”和简易的“精确单点定位”数据处理策略,能够在满足精度要求的前提下更加有效地实施     

长源距声波测井资料分析处理

本文对长源距声波测井记录的波列特征进行分析,综述时域及频域处理信号的方法.阐明首波检测法、波形相似相关法、直接相位法的特点.讨论“软”、“硬”地层的不同特点,研究相应纵波、横波、管波的特征及其提取方法.并对“软”地层中管波速度反演横渡速度的模型进行了讨论.     

瑞利波勘探中“之”形频散曲线的形成机理及反演研究

对瑞利波勘探中“之”字形频散曲线形成的物理机理进行了理论分析,研究了诸波模的传播特性及相互关系．指出在地表下存在具有水平界面的软弱夹层和地层裂缝时,瑞利波频散曲线中的“之”字形结构是低速夹层或地层裂缝中出现多模现象的结果．利用阻尼最小二乘法和遗传算法对瑞利波频散曲线反演介质参数进行了研究和分析,发现最小二乘法不适合瑞利波“之”字形反演问题研究,而用遗传算法得到了较好的结果．     

Seismic soil pressure for building walls: An updated approach

The Mononobe–Okabe (M–O) method developed in the 1920s in Japan continues to be widely used despite many criticisms and its limitations. The method was developed for gravity walls retaining cohesionless backfill materials. In design applications, however, the M–O method, or any of its derivatives, is commonly used for below ground building walls. In this regard, the M–O method is one of the most abused methods in the geotechnical practice. Recognizing the limitation of the M–O method, a simplified method was recently developed to predict lateral seismic soil pressure for building walls. The method is focused on the building walls rather than retaining walls and specifically considers the dynamic soil properties and frequency content of the design motion in its formulation.     

Evaluation of shear wave velocity profile using SPT based uphole method

The uphole method is a field seismic test which uses receivers on the ground surface and an underground source. A modified form of the uphole method is introduced in order to obtain efficiently the shear wave velocity (V_S) profile of a site. This method is called the standard penetration test (SPT)-uphole method because it uses the impact energy of the split spoon sampler in the SPT test as a source. Since the SPT-uphole method can be performed simultaneously with the SPT test it is economical and not labor intensive compared to the original uphole methods which use small explosives or a mechanical source. Field testing and interpretation procedures for the proposed method are described. To obtain reliable travel time information of the shear wave, the first peak point of the shear wave using two component geophones is recommended. Through a numerical study using the finite element method (FEM), the procedure of the proposed method was verified. Finally, the SPT-uphole method was performed at several sites, and the field applicability of the proposed method was verified by comparing the V_S profiles determined by the SPT-uphole method with the profiles determined by the downhole, the spectral analysis of surfaces waves (SASW) method and from the SPT-N values.     

Direct and indirect methods to simulate the actual evapotranspiration of an irrigated overhead table grape vineyard under Mediterranean conditions

Two methods, indirect and direct, for simulating the actual evapotranspiration (E) were applied to an irrigated overhead table grape vineyard during summer, situated in the Mediterranean region (south Italy), over two successive years. The first method, indirect but more practical, uses the crop coefficient (K_c) approach and requires determination of the reference evapotranspiration E₀ (FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) method). This method underestimated on average by 17% the daily values of the actual evapotranspiration E. The analysis in this paper shows that the values of K_c for the table grapes determined by the FAO method seem to not be valid in our experimental conditions. Similar conclusions can be found in the literature for the table grape cultivated under different experimental conditions and using different training systems. The second method, is a direct method for estimating the evapotranspiration. It requires development of a model for the overhead table grape vineyard E, following the Penman–Monteith one‐step approach, and using standard meteorological variables as inputs for the determination of the canopy resistance. This method, which needs a particularly simple calibration, provided a better simulation of the hourly and daily evapotranspiration than the indirect method. In additon, the standard error of the daily values for the direct method ( ± 0 · 41 mm) was about 50% lower than that obtained for the indirect method, also when the indirect method used a locally calibrated coefficient K_c instead of a generic K_c. Both, for practical application and theoretical issues, the advantages and disadvantages linked to the use of each tested method are discussed in detail. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple temperature method for the estimation of evapotranspiration

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in water resources management and hydrological practices. Estimation of ET in areas, where adequate meteorological data are not available, is one of the challenges faced by water resource managers. Hence, a simplified approach, which is less data intensive, is crucial. The FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith (FAO‐56 PM) is a sole global standard method, but it requires numerous weather data for the estimation of reference ET. A new simple temperature method is developed, which uses only maximum temperature data to estimate ET. Ten class I weather stations data were collected from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. This method was compared with the global standard PM method, the observed Piche evaporimeter data, and the well‐known Hargreaves (HAR) temperature method. The coefficient of determination (R²) of the new method was as high as 0.74, 0.75, and 0.91, when compared with that of PM reference evapotranspiration (ET_o), Piche evaporimeter data, and HAR methods, respectively. The annual average R² over the ten stations when compared with PM, Piche, and HAR methods were 0.65, 0.67, and 0.84, respectively. The Nash–Sutcliff efficiency of the new method compared with that of PM was as high as 0.67. The method was able to estimate daily ET with an average root mean square error and an average absolute mean error of 0.59 and 0.47 mm, respectively, from the PM ET_o method. The method was also tested in dry and wet seasons and found to perform well in both seasons. The average R² of the new method with the HAR method was 0.82 and 0.84 in dry and wet seasons, respectively. During validation, the average R² and Nash–Sutcliff values when compared with Piche evaporation were 0.67 and 0.51, respectively. The method could be used for the estimation of daily ET_o where there are insufficient data. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于高分六号数据提取太湖蓝藻方法的对比及适用性分析

以往对太湖蓝藻提取的研究中,较少将国内高分系列卫星影像作为数据源.为此本文基于2019年太湖不同蓝藻暴发时期的高分六号数据,采用随机森林（random forest,RF）法、归一化植被指数（normalized differential vegetation index,NDVI）阈值法和多光谱绿潮指数（multispectral green tide index,MGTI）阈值法对太湖蓝藻进行提取以寻求提取太湖蓝藻的最佳方法,并在此基础之上探讨了RF不同输入变量的适用性.结果表明,2019年太湖南岸和梅梁湖的蓝藻水华富营养化较为严重,NDVI阈值法明显将部分轻度蓝藻漏提,MGTI阈值法对中、重度蓝藻的识别能力不如NDVI法,而RF法能够有效地提取太湖蓝藻.其中将归一化植被指数和归一化水体指数作为输入变量的RF法提取中型暴发期的太湖蓝藻精度最高,总体分类精度和Kappa系数分别为99%和0.97.研究太湖蓝藻的提取方法对太湖的环境治理提供了技术支持,也为其他湖泊蓝藻的遥感监测提供了科学依据.     

A computational model for coupled multiphysics processes of CO2 sequestration in fractured porous media

In this paper, a computational model for the simulation of coupled hydromechanical and electrokinetic flow in fractured porous media is introduced. Particular emphasis is placed on modeling CO₂ flow in a deformed, fractured geological formation and the associated electrokinetic flow. The governing field equations are derived based on the averaging theory and the double porosity model. They are solved numerically with a mixed discretization scheme, formulated on the basis of the standard Galerkin finite element method, the extended finite element method, the level-set method and the Petrov–Galerkin method. The standard Galerkin method is utilized to discretize the equilibrium and the diffusive dominant field equations, and the extended finite element method, together with the level-set method and the Petrov–Galerkin method, are utilized to discretize the advective dominant field equations. The level-set method is employed to trace the CO₂ plume front, and the extended finite element method is employed to model the high gradient in the saturation field front. The proposed mixed discretization scheme leads to a convergent system, giving a stable and effectively mesh-independent model. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed model is evaluated by verification and numerical examples. Effects of the fracture spacing on the CO₂ flow and the streaming potential are discussed.     

2016年5月22日辽宁朝阳4.6级地震震源机制和震源深度研究

2016年5月22日17时08分,辽宁朝阳县发生M4.6地震。本文利用P波初动、TDMT、CAP等方法研究该地震的震源机制解,利用CAP、PTD、sPn-Pn等方法测定震源深度。结果表明,3种方法计算震源机制解所得结果一致,CAP、PTD、sPn-Pn等方法测定的深度结果接近。利用双差定位法对2009~2016年发生在震源区域的地震重新定位,结合模拟退火算法和高斯牛顿算法拟合得到小地震分布的走向和倾角。根据震源机制解、震源深度、小地震分布特征和震源区域的构造特征等判断,发震构造断裂走向为NEE,倾角接近垂直,主压应力方向为NNW向,震源机制为正断类型,并带有较小的左旋分量。     

GPS无线电掩星后向传播方法

在大气多路径传播条件下,讨论了两种无线电信号的反演方法:几何光学方法和后向传播方法.当大气存在多路径效应时,采用几何光学方法反演大气参数会引入较大误差.后向传播方法将无线电信号从多路径区域反推至单路径区域,减少了大气多路径效应的影响.为了比较不同的反演方法,利用多相位屏模型,数值模拟了大气多路径条件下无线电信号在大气中...     

A computationally efficient algorithm for the solution of eigenproblems for large structures with non-proportional damping using Lanczos method

In this paper, a solution method is presented to solve the eigenproblem arising in the dynamic analysis of non-proportional damping systems with symmetric matrices. The method is based on the Lanczos method to generate one pair of Krylov subspaces consisting of trial vectors, which is then used to reduce a large eigenvalue problem into a much smaller one. The method retains the n order quadratic eigenproblem, without employing the method of matrix augmentation traditionally used to cast the problem as a linear eigenproblem of order 2n. In this process, the method preserves the sparseness and symmetry of the system matrices and does not invoke complex arithmetic; thus making it very economical for use in solving large problems. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new fuzzy linear regression approach for dissolved oxygen prediction

Abstract

A new method for fuzzy linear regression is proposed to predict dissolved oxygen using abiotic factors in a riverine environment, in Calgary, Canada. The proposed method is designed to accommodate fuzzy regressors, regressand and coefficients, i.e. representing full system uncertainty. The regression equation is built to minimize the distance between fuzzy numbers, and generalizes to crisp regression when crisp parameters are used. The method is compared to two existing fuzzy linear regression techniques: the Tanaka method and the Diamond method. The proposed new method outperforms the existing methods with higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and lower RMSE, AIC and total fuzzy distance. The new method demonstrates that nonlinear membership functions are more suitable for representing uncertain environmental data than the typical triangular representations. A result of this research is that low DO prediction is improved and consequently the approach can be used for risk analysis by water resource managers.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor T. Okruszko