应用经验正交函数分析预报表层海水温度的方法——东海及外缘海域月平均表层水温预报

东海及其外缘海域表层海水温度场的热状况直接影响着我国海洋资源的开发与利用,尤其是近年来随着外海远洋渔场的不断开发,对海洋环境预报的要求日益迫切,为此开展了大面积表层海水温度预报的研究.大面积表层海水温度预报,实际上是一个温度场的预报.若用热动力学数值模式的计算方法直接求解这个多维的非线性问题,目前还是比较困难的.     

表层海水温度场的正交综合因子场分解预报方法——东海及其外缘海域月平均表层水温预报

表层海水温度预报的途径目前在我国仍以统计预报为主,数值预报和数值动力统计预报尚在探索中.表层海温统计预报一般又分为单要素时间序列预报和多要素相关预报两类.这些方法各有长处和短处,因此在预报实施中,应根据各种方法的特点,互相补充,综合发布预报.我们在应用经验正交函数分析预报表层海水温度场的基础上,也曾对表层海温场的多因子相关预报方法进行了多种试验.     

基于CCSM3气候模式的同化模拟试验

基于美国NCAR及其他科学家合作发展的共同气候系统模式CCSM3,利用nudging方法开展了把15 m到465 m的次表层海温同化到该模式的研究。1980—2000年的同化试验结果表明,经过同化得到的模拟结果与实际较为一致,较好的再现了中低纬太平洋海洋和大气的平均特征和随时间演变的规律,但仍存在如海表温度偏高、降水偏强等问题。尤其是在大洋的东边界,陆地地形比较陡峭的地区,通常出现较大的偏差。     

大亚湾大鹏澳牡蛎养殖临近海域自养微微型浮游生物种群分布特征

于2013年5月到2014年6月,在大亚湾大鹏澳牡蛎区及邻近海域开展了为期14个月的采样调查,利用高效液相色谱(HPLC)法对表层水体中微微型浮游植物(0.7—2.7μm)光合色素进行测定,并应用色素化学分类软件CHEMTAX对自养微微型浮游生物(aototrophicpicoplankton,APP)功能类群进行分析。结果表明,该海域APP中共检出了15种光合色素,其中青绿藻素(Pras)和玉米黄素(Zea)是微微型色素中浓度最高的2种特征色素,均具有明显的季节变化特征:Pras主要出现在低温季节(牡蛎养殖期),而Zea主要出现在高温季节(非牡蛎养殖期)。CHEMTAX分析表明,大鹏澳海域APP最主要的类群是硅藻、蓝藻和青绿藻,而甲藻、隐藻、定鞭金藻、绿藻和金藻生物量较低。温度和营养盐浓度是影响大鹏澳海域APP的时空分布的重要因素,青绿藻主要出现在低温季节(主要在冬季牡蛎养殖期间),且其生物量与溶解无机氮呈显著正相关;而蓝藻则主要出现在高温季节,与温度呈显著正相关。另外,贝类养殖也是能够影响APP空间分布的重要因素,在大鹏澳海域牡蛎养殖期间,青绿藻生物量在养殖区明显高于非养殖海域。     

协同克里格方法在东海表面温度场数据插值中的应用

首次将协同克里格方法引入到海洋水文插值计算中处理东海实验区2008-01—2008-03三个月抽稀后的月平均海表面温场数据。将温场数据分为趋势分量和剩余分量,最终采用两分量的估计值之和实现海表面温场数据的格网插值估计。结果表明：协同克里格方法比传统方法（趋势分析、移动平均、普通克里格插值）效果好。提出变差函数局部拟合的...     

南海南部海域海面温度异常的时空分布特征

基于1982年1月—2006年12月NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature（OISST）的逐月平均海面温度（SST）资料，采用经验正交函数分解（EOF）方法分析了南海南部海面温度异常场典型的空间分布形态及其时间变化特征。结果表明，南海南部海域海面温度异常场空间上主要表现为三种典型的分布结构，即以研究区域北部为中心的海盆尺度的单涡结构、东西反相的经向偶极子分布结构和南北反相的纬向偶极子分布结构，这三种分布结构都以2—4年的年际变化周期为主，反映了研究海域海面温度异常与ENSO现象高度相关。此外，研究海域还存在显著的半年和季节内周期变化，这种变化周期主要以南北反相的纬向偶极子分布结构（第三模态）存在，反映了大气动力强迫和热力强迫共同影响的结果。     

用TOPEX/POSEIDON高度计数据研究南极绕极流流域海面高度的低频变化

采用TOPEX/POSEIDON(T/P)卫星高度计 1 993年 1月— 2 0 0 0年 1 2月海面高度数据 ,研究包含了整个南极绕极流流系 (40°— 6 0°S)的海面高度低频变化。首先采用EOF分解方法获取南大洋时空分布的主要模态 ,前 3个EOF模态分别占总方差的 2 4 .8%、1 3 .8%和 1 0 .7%。然后采用EMD方法分别分析了各个EOF模态的时间系数曲线的组成成分 ,对南极绕极流海域的各种时间尺度变化给出了清晰的描述 ,对于不同尺度变化所占的比例得到了定量的结果。研究结果表明 ,EOF的各个模态不仅在形态上存在差异 ,而且具有相互独立的物理背景。EOF的第一模态主要体现了以太阳辐射冬夏差异形成的年周期变化 ,另一个显著的特征就是南极绕极流从 1 993— 2 0 0 0年海面的整体上升趋势。EOF的第二模态体现了陆地地形对南极绕极流的约束作用 ,同时也显示了ENSO过程对南极绕极流 ,特别是对南太平洋的海面高度变化的影响。EOF的第三模态则体现了南极绕极流对南大洋表面风场东西方向不均匀变化的响应。同时 ,本文的研究也证明了EOF与EMD方法联合使用对揭示大范围时空变化有重要的实际意义     

Seasonal Variation of Space/Time Statistics of Short-Term Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Kuroshio Region

Spatial and temporal scales of sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Kuroshio region have been investigated using a satellite-based one-year merged SST product. Targeting short-term variations with temporal scales of less than a year, decorrelation scales, which are defined as the e-folding scale of SST variability, have been derived as functions of regional positions and calendar months. We assumed that the autocorrelation function of SST has anisotropic Gaussian characteristics in the space-time domain. Resultant spatial and temporal decorrelation scales range from 1 to 3° and 2 to 3 days, respectively. They are strongly inhomogeneous, anisotropic and time-dependent. These characteristics are attributed to the oceanic and atmospheric disturbances. Spatial decorrelation scales are determined mainly by strong atmospheric forcing in the study region. In the area with dominant atmospheric forcing, the spatial scales are larger than those in the other regions. Those in the regions with dynamical oceanographic disturbances are as small as 1°. Signal-to-noise ratios are also large where the atmospheric forcing is strong, while they are small where the oceanic signals are active.     

基于高频地波雷达的多时间尺度海流研究

近海海流受多种动力过程及岸线岛屿的作用呈现空间和时间尺度上的复杂变化,而地波雷达由于其探测面积广、时间分辨率高的特点成为研究这些变化的有效手段。本文利用舟山海域多年高频地波雷达资料,通过潮流调和分析、低通滤波和相关性分析对该海域海流潮周期、极端事件、季节、年际尺度的动力过程进行了解译。研究表明,舟山海域属于正规半日潮,潮流运动形式以顺时针旋转流为主,流速大小在空间上为东北方向较大,往西南方向逐渐减小,并在近岸处得到增强。余流的年际变化并不显著,但存在着明显的季节变化,例如冬季为南向流,流速减小,空间分布上近岸较外海大,而夏季与之反向,为北向流,流速较大,空间分布较为均匀。进一步分析了风与余流之间的相关性,在大风期间,风与余流的速度相关系数在0.48～0.90之间,方向相关系数在0.55～0.68之间。极端事件发生时,速度、方向的相关系数分别高达0.92与0.91。总体而言,通过分析高频地波雷达数据能够较好地反映舟山海域海流的时空特征,为海洋灾害监测和污染物、藻华的输运研究提供依据。     

Variability of Sea Surface Circulation in the Japan Sea

Composite sea surface dynamic heights (CSSDH) are calculated from both sea surface dynamic heights that are derived from altimetric data of ERS-2 and mean sea surface that is calculated by a numerical model. The CSSDH are consistent with sea surface temperature obtained by satellite and observed water temperature. Assuming the geostrophic balance, sea surface current velocities are calculated. It is found that temporal and spatial variations of sea surface circulation are considerably strong. In order to examine the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of current pattern, EOF analysis is carried out with use of the CSSDH for 3.5 years. The spatial and temporal variations of mode 1 indicate the strength or weakness of sea surface circulation over the entire Japan Sea associated with seasonal variation of volume transport through the Tsushima Strait. The spatial and temporal variations of mode 2 mostly indicate the temporal variation of the second branch of the Tsushima Warm Current and the East Korean Warm Current. It is suggested that this variation is possibly associated with the seasonal variation of volume transport through the west channel of the Tsushima Strait. Variations of mode 3 indicate the interannual variability in the Yamato Basin.     

基于FerryBox的渤海海峡水质低成本长期自动监测

FerryBox是一套全自动、实时的水生生态监测系统,具有多参数、低维护、低成本、监测覆盖范围广、可持续性强等诸多优点。2015年10月~2016年7月,作者通过将其安装在一条频繁返于烟台-大连之间的货船上,实现了10个月的渤海海峡水质低成本长期自动监测。监测结果表明,渤海海峡水环境因子在时空分布上存在显著的南北差异,秋季海峡南部海域的表层浊度及pH均高于中部及北部海域;冬季海峡北部海域的表层温度、盐度和浊度均大于南部海域;进入春季以后海峡中南部海域为表层叶绿素a浓度高值区。季风、黄海暖流以及渤海环流等因素是造成渤海海峡水环境因子南北差异的主要原因。春、夏季渤海海峡营养盐监测结果表明,渤海海峡营养盐的时空分布具有明显的季节性和区域性特征,在时间变化上整体呈现初春和夏末较高,在空间分布上整体呈现海峡两侧高于海峡中部。海底冷水团颗粒物的分解、藻类繁殖、地表径流以及渤海环流等,是影响渤海海峡春、夏季营养盐时空分布的重要因素。春季渤海海峡浮游生物生长受硅和磷的双重限制,夏季主要受磷限制。     

基于Landsat-8数据的田湾核电站温排水分布研究

为研究潮汐变化对连云港田湾核电站邻近海域温排水时空分布与变化规律的影响,利用Landsat-8热红外数据,构建基于劈窗算法的温度反演模型,结合潮汐数据分析田湾核电站邻近海域的温排水分布规律。得出结论:基于Landsat-8数据的劈窗算法温度反演模型应用在田湾核电站邻近海域温排水的监测效果较好;潮汐运动直接影响田湾核电站温排水的时空分布与扩散方向,并呈现一定的规律性。本文的研究方法为核电站温排水常规性监测提供了一定的技术参考。     

长江口邻近海域海表温度变化特征分析

基于遥感数据,采用功率谱和相关性分析等方法,研究了长江口邻近海域海表温度(SST)的时空变化特征以及影响因素。结果表明:1982—2017年长江口邻近海域的SST 整体表现为每10 a升温约0.48 ^°C的趋势,且具有10.0,3.6,2.4和1.0 a的振荡周期。长期以来,冬、春、夏、秋四季的长江口邻近海域SST总体呈现升温趋势,其中春季的升温趋势最显著,而秋季变化趋势最不明显。研究海区的SST呈现明显西北—东南向温度递增的分布特征。此外,长江口径流量的变化对邻近海域的SST具有一定影响,从多年变化来看,径流量增大(减小),长江口邻近海域SST随之升高(降低),从月变化来看,3月、4月和9月的长江径流对SST有影响。气温对SST具有一定的强迫作用,大气温度的总体趋势是升高的,通过海气相互作用进行热传输,从而造成长江口邻近海域SST升温。     

基于综合环境因子的协同克里金法分析茎柔鱼资源丰度空间分布

茎柔鱼是我国重要的远洋捕捞对象之一,研究其资源丰度空间分布问题,有助于更好地理解茎柔鱼的生态习性,并提高我国鱿钓渔船的生产效率。本文利用上海海洋大学鱿钓技术组提供的2003-2012年6-9月秘鲁外海茎柔鱼捕捞数据,结合海表面温度（SST）,海表面高度（SSH）,海表面盐度（SSS）和叶绿素浓度（Chl a）进行协同克里金插值预测其资源丰度的空间分布。为了解决协同克里金插值中4个环境因子的权重问题,本文将4个环境因子进行归一化处理,利用主成分分析方法将其整合为单一综合环境因子,以此作为协变量。将综合环境因子与单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）进行相关性检验后进行协同克里金插值,根据平均误差（ME）,均方根误差（RMSE）和标准化均方根（RMSSE）对插值结果评价,探讨此种方法的可行性。研究结果认为:（1）主成分分析方法获得的6-9月份的综合环境因子均与CPUE具有显著相关性;（2）6-7月份ME分别为0.002 6和0.002 5,预测准确性很高,平均预测结果稍高于实际观测值;而8-9月份的ME分别为-0.007 8和-0.000 2,预测准确性较高,平均预测结果稍低于实际观测值。6月份的RMSE估值精度最高,8月份的估值精度最低。6-7月份的RMSSE值小于1,说明都高估了预测的不确定性,8-9月份的RMSSE值大于1,说明都低估了预测的不确定性,则在6-9月份中的预测精度和准确性上会有一定程度的偏差。从ME、RMSE和RMSSE三者综合来看,6-9月的预测值具有一定的可靠性。     

福建省近岸海域环境因子分布特征及富营养化评价

本研究于2019年春、夏、秋季对福建省闽西南近岸海域海水营养盐和叶绿素a等环境因子进行调查采样,分析其时空分布特征,同时应用有机污染指数法和富营养化指数法2种评价方法对该海域海水富营养化水平进行评价对比,采用主成分分析法探讨环境因子对该海域富营养化状态的影响.结果显示,有机污染指数和富营养化指数的时空分布特征基本一致,季节上表现为春季>秋季>夏季;空间上呈各河入海口向远岸海域逐渐降低的趋势,内湾附近海域污染最严重;调查海域海水富营养化的主要影响因子是总氮和无机氮,且与盐度、pH和溶解氧呈显著的负相关,说明陆源径流对该海域海水的富营养化水平起着重要的调控作用.     

Spatial and temporal distributions of water temperature in aSargassum forest

The present study examined the influence of aSargassum forest on the spatial and temporal distributions of water temperature in a small cove on a time scale of the order of hours. Water temperature and algal density were measured along a fixed transect at the cove for almost 2 days. The measurements were carried out in May 1977 during the season of luxuriant seaweed growth, and in August during the season of little growth. The average standing crop per unit volume, named the spatial algal density, was employed as a means of expressing the growth condition of the seaweed forest along the transect. Using the spatial algal density and by analyzing water temperature distribution the following facts were revealed. The diurnal fluctuation of water temperature was influenced by theSargassum forest during the season of luxuriant growth, and the seaweed forest delayed the ascent and descent of water temperature, especially under its canopy, on a time scale of the order of hours, i.e., the temperature distribution patterns were influenced by the heights and densities of theSargassum forest during its season of luxuriant growth. It is thought that these phenomena are brought about by two effects: one is the absorption by the seaweed forest of short-wave radiation passing through the sea surface, and the other is the suppression of convection by the seaweed.     

Estimating the sea surface dynamic topography from Geosat altimetry data

Optimal interpolation method is applied to Geosat altimetry data both to remove orbit error and to separate temporal mean sea surface dynamic topography (SSDT) from temporal fluctuations around the mean. Loss of long-wavelength oceanic signals at orbit error reduction procedure is smaller in this method than that in conventional collinear methods, but the areal average height over the study domain is still removed as the orbit error. The fluctuation SSDT is quantitatively evaluated by sea level data from tide gauge stations at Japanese islands. The correlation coefficient of the two sea-level variations is 0.83 when the loss of the areal average is compensated by the seasonal variation of the areal average height determined from the climatological monthly-mean SSDT. In addition, the improvement of the geoid model by combined use of Seasat altimetry data and hydrographic data is validated through the estimated temporal mean SSDT. In a local area where hydrographic data contemporary with the Seasat mission exist, the geoid model has been significantly improved so that the absolute SSDT can be determined from combination of the altimetry data and geoid model; the absolute SSDT describes the onset event of a quasi-stationary large meander of the Kuroshio south of Japan very well. Outside this local area, however, errors of several tens of centimeters still remain in the improved geoid model.     

厦门湾海水中224Ra的深度分布特征及其应用

本文采用MnO₂-纤维富集、220Rn的连续射气闪烁法测定厦门湾海水中的224Ra,利用其垂直分布求出该海域的垂直涡动扩散系数(K_z),为该海域可溶性污染物扩散、迁移和海域自净能力的估算提供理论依据.该海域224Ra的垂直分布及由此得出的K_z使我们能够洞悉研究海域水体的垂直扩散特征及其时、空变化.     

赤道太平洋温度、流场距平EOF分析及与厄尔尼诺的关系

利用EOF分析方法,讨论了最近20a赤道太平洋次表层温度、纬向流距平与厄尔尼诺的关系.结果表明:赤道太平洋海温距平EOF分析第一、二主分量占总量的近80%,其中第一主分量类似于厄尔尼诺模态,第二主分量类似于暖池模态;后一模态存在着突变和渐变两种过程,其中由冷位相变暖位相过程为渐变过程,而暖位相变冷位相过程为突变过程.厄尔尼诺事件是赤道西太平洋暖池突变过程的结果.赤道太平洋纬向流距平EOF的第二主分量代表赤道西太平洋潜流和东太平洋南赤道流的变化,这个模态存在着半年左右的振荡和与厄尔尼诺同位相的年际振荡两种频率.另外,它还存在明显的年代际变化.赤道西太平洋潜流和东太平洋南赤道流减弱是产生厄尔尼诺的必要条件.统计回归分析表明,赤道太平洋海温距平和纬向流距平EOF的第二特征向量的时间系数对厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜均有一定的预报意义.     

Satellite and ship observations of Kuroshio warm-core ring 93A off Sanriku, northwestern North Pacific, in spring 1997

Synoptic ship and satellite observations were performed of the Kuroshio warm-core ring (KWCR) 93A and its adjacent waters, off Sanriku, northwestern North Pacific, between early April and late June 1997. The temporal and spatial distribution of chlorophylla (Chl-a) and sea surface temperature in the study area were analyzed using data from ADEOS Ocean Color and Temperature Scanner (OCTS) and NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). The objective of this study was to describe the temporal and spatial variability of the spring bloom and understand its relationship with the changes in the hydrographic structure of these waters in and around KWCR 93A. The maximum value of Chl-a concentration in the ring was less than 1 mg/m³ during April. The spring bloom in the ring occurred early in May and the relatively high maximum (>1.0 mg/m³) continued from early in May to mid-June. In late June, a ship-observed surface Chl-a concentration of less than 0.4 mg/m³ suggests that the spring bloom had already declined in and around KWCR 93A. Double spiral structures of warm and cold streamers appeared from late April to mid-May, which may have an influence on the occurrence of the spring bloom in and around the ring. In this episodic event, the warm streamer can maintain the available potential energy of the ring and the strength of upwelling around the ring. The cold streamer provided water with a high Chl-a concentration to the surface layer of the ring. In order to understand the temporal and spatial variability of Chl-a distribution in the ring, the behavior of the warm and cold streamers needs to be taken into consideration.