THE HUMAN GEOGRAPHY OF SOUTHEAST ASIA: AN ANALYSIS OF POST-WAR DEVELOPMENTS

This paper reviews the directional shifts in human geographical research on Southeast Asia from 1945 to the present. It first begins with an overview of the identity of the region as conceived in various cultural traditions, such as the Greek, Arabic and Indian traditions. This is followed by an evaluation of regional geographies of Southeast Asia in the post-war period, highlighting the pre-eminence of the geostrategic definition of the region and the failure to come to grips with its rich cultural-historical identity. The paper then goes on to show that, arising from the changes in conceptual developments and methodologies in geography, the early regional emphasis then shifted to systematic concerns, with a movement away from ‘encyclopaedic’ to ‘adjectival’ geography (economic, urban, population, political, cultural and historical) and a greater emphasis on issues concerning national development. Since the 1980s, there have also been fewer regional works on Southeast Asia and though there are now many more indigenous geographers within the region, much of their research is based on their own national or provincial areas. However, this may shift again, given that rapid economic growth has now given the region prominence. Certainly, there is renewed multi-disciplinary interest in Southeast Asia.     

A comparison of state space and multiple regression for monthly forecasts: U.S. Fuel consumption

Monthly consumption forecasts for U.S. oil, natural gas, and coal are made using state space and multiple regression applied to the same data. These forecasts are compared with actual consumption for a test period. The forecasts made using state space are preferred to those made using multiple regression models for both expost and exante cases. The state space forecasts track data cycles better than do the regression forecasts. Average absolute forecast errors are less for the state space models than they are for the multiple regression models.     

东南亚恐怖主义的时空演进及其网络关系

以全球恐怖主义数据库（GTD）的研究数据为基础,运用地学空间统计分析方法和社会网络分析方法,对2000－2018年东南亚发生的恐怖主义事件进行时空演变特征分析及其参与组织的社会网络关联解析,得出以下结论：1）东南亚恐怖主义发展态势呈现显著的阶段性波动增长,在空间上表现为明显的集聚性,由2000－2013年的两极集聚中心转变为2014－2018年的三级集聚中心。2）东南亚恐怖主义组织众多,恐怖组织类型复杂,各恐怖组织及独狼型恐怖主义之间通过情报、资源及人员交流等方式进行联系,形成了一个巨大的跨地区恐怖组织网络;以伊斯兰祈祷团（JI）为代表的东南亚恐怖组织在上个世纪90年代利用域外组织的支持建立了一个横跨多国、分工明确的4M活动网络,并利用此活动网络进行资金筹集、人员培训、策划活动等。3）东南亚恐怖主义迅速发展有其深层次原因,既有地区内部社会文化、政治环境和经济发展的影响,又有区域外恐怖主义势力的干预。     

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Drought in the Belt and Road Area During 1998-2015 Based on TRMM Precipitation Data

Drought is a worldwide natural disaster that has long affected agricultural production as well as social and economic activities. Frequent droughts have been observed in the Belt and Road area, in which much of the agricultural land is concentrated in fragile ecological environment. Based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite (TRMM) 3B43 precipitation data, we used the Precipitation Abnormity Percentage drought model to study the monthly spatio-temporal distribution of drought in south region of N50° of the Belt and Road area. It was observed that drought during winter was mainly distributed in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, while it was mainly distributed in Central Asia and West Asia during summer. The occurrence of historical droughts indicates an obvious seasonal cycle. The regional variations in drought were analyzed using the Breaks for Additive Season and Trend tool (BFAST) in six sub-regions according to the spatial distribution of six economic corridors in the Belt and Road area. The average drought conditions over the 18 years show a slight decreasing trend in Northeast Asia, West Asia, North Africa, South Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and a slight increasing trend in Central Asia. However, it was a fluctuating pattern of first increasing and then decreasing in Southeast Asia. The results indicate that the total drought area in the Belt and Road region showed a general decreasing trend at a rate of 40,260 km2 per year from 1998 to 2015.     

Modeling tropical river runoff: A time dependent approach

Forecasting of rainfall and subsequent river runoff is important for many operational problems and applications related to hydrology. Modeling river runoff often requires rigorous mathematical analysis of vast historical data to arrive at reasonable conclusions. In this paper we have applied the stochastic method to characterize and predict river runoffofthe perennial Kulfo River in southem Ethiopia. The time series analysis based auto regressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） approach is applied to mean monthly runoff data with 10 and 20 years spans. The varying length of the input runoff data is shown to influence the forecasting efficiency of the stochastic process. Preprocessing of the runoff time series data indicated that the data do not follow a seasonal pattern. Our forecasts were made using parsimonious non seasonal ARIMA models and the results were compared to actual 10-year and 20-year mean monthly runoff data of the Kulfo River. Our results indicate that river runoff forecasts based upon the 10-year data are more accurate and efficient than the model based on the 20-year time series.     

基于百度指数的东南亚国家网络关注度区域差异

基于2010―2013年中国31个省、自治区和直辖市对东南亚10个国家网络关注度的百度指数,采用弹性系数、泰尔指数和相对网络关注度测度方法,从“信源”“信宿”和“信道”3个角度对网络关注度区域差异特征进行了分析,发现：1）中国对东南亚国家关注度普遍提高,东南沿海地区普遍高于内陆地区,长三角地区关注度增长迅速,珠三角地区关注度最高。2）泰尔指数整体下降明显,东、中、西和东北经济分区区内部关注度差异的缩小与区域间关注度差异的拉大并存。3）区域内部的差异是造成中国对东南亚国家关注度差异的主要原因,而东部省份之间的区域差异是造成区域内部差异的主要原因。4）马来西亚逐渐取代越南,与新加坡、泰国组成东南亚地区被中国关注最多国家中的前三甲,出境旅游、经济贸易往来以及金融投资与合作是拉近双边关系的重要因素。5）对东南亚国家相对关注度较高的地区向东南沿海集中,东南亚被关注国家均分布在南海周边,南海战略地位突显。上海与东南亚国家的联系逐渐弱于广东,表现出广东在对东南亚贸易方面突出的地位以及城市之间跨流域的区域贸易分工。     

Applicability evaluation of the SWIM at river basins of the black soil region in Northeast China: A case study of the upper and middle Wuyuer River basin

In this paper, we selected the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River basin in the black soil region of Northeast China as the study area. We adopted the soil and water integrated model (SWIM) and evaluated the parameter sensitivity using partial correlation coefficient. We calibrated and validated our simulation results based on the daily runoff data from Yi’an hydrological station at the outlet of the river basin and the evaporation data recorded by various weather stations from 1961 to 1997. Following evaluation of the modeling data against the observed data, we present the applicability of SWIM in the river basin of the black soil region, and discuss the resulting errors and their probable causes. Results show that in the periods of calibration and validation, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients of the monthly and daily runoffs were not less than 0.71 and 0.55, and the relative errors were less than 6.0%. Compared to daily runoffs, the simulation result of monthly runoffs was better. Additionally, the NSE coefficients of the potential monthly evaporation were not less than 0.81. Together, the results suggest that the calibrated SWIM can be utilized in various simulation analyses of runoffs on a monthly scale in the black soil region of Northeast China. On the contrary, the model had some limitations in simulating runoffs from snowmelt and frozen soil. Meanwhile, the stimulation data deviated from the measured data largely when applied to the years with spring and summer floods. The simulated annual runoffs were considerably higher than the measured data in the years with abrupt increases in annual precipitation. However, the model is capable of reproducing the changes in runoffs during flood seasons. In summary, this model can provide fundamental hydrological information for comprehensive management of the Wuyuer River basin water environment, and its application can be potentially extended to other river basins in the black soil region.     

全球集装箱航运的空间组织网络

集装箱运输网络是经济全球化背景下物质要素资源在全球进行配置的主要承载体,而航运企业是航运网络的组织者;基于航运企业的组织行为,可以考察全球航运网络的基本格局与空间体系。本文选取全球主要的24家集装箱班轮公司和530个港口为研究样本,以集装箱船月度运营表为研究对象,构筑数理评价模型,剖析全球集装箱航运组织网络的空间格局和主要港口的集装箱组织能力,探讨了全球港口的运输联系格局和主要空间系统。研究表明:东亚和东南亚为重点组织区域,以此为核心构筑全球集装箱航运网络;全球港口的航线设置和航班组织及运输联系形成东亚、东南亚、西北欧和美东四大集聚区域,航运组织尚未形成全球性空间系统,但形成许多区域性系统,区域化明显。     

南极固定翼飞机航空气象保障业务述评

中国已经开始利用固定翼飞机在南极开展科学考察和执行后勤保障任务,建立较完备的南极机场气象观测系统和航空气象预报保障系统并提供安全可靠的气象保障服务已迫在眉睫。在对国际上已开展的南极固定翼飞机航空及其气象保障业务现状调研的基础上,对影响南极固定翼飞机飞行的低云、低能见度、结冰、低空风切变等关键气象要素进行了论述。结合我国国内民用航空和空军航空气象保障的情况,讨论了在南极开展固定翼飞机航空气象保障所需的机场气象观测设备、数值天气预报资料和航空气象预报内容等问题。提出了对我国南极固定翼飞机航空气象保障工作的设想:根据极地天气气候特点,评估机场地理位置和当地历史天气事件及气候背景,建立较为完备的气象观测系统;参照民航气象预报内容,重点考虑中山站的机场预报、着陆预报和起飞预报,并加强关注可能对航空产生危险的下降风、吹雪、雪暴和低空风切变等天气现象。     

华北主要城市夏季高温气候特征及评估方法

1 Introduction The major cities of North China are located in the warm extra-tropical belt and the semi-humid continental monsoon climate zone. Geographically, the Taihang Mountain to the northwest is a shield against invasion of cold air, although it is …     

Climatic characteristics of summer high temperature and assessment methods in the large cities of North China

Based on the high temperature data of June to August in 1961-2000 in North China, the high temperature weather processes are investigated, and a more complete data set for severe high temperature processes is created. The climatic characteristics of adverse high temperature weather in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan and Taiyuan are analyzed respectively. The major features of the East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are discussed. The outcomes indicate that the influence of both East Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High on these weather events varies, by a larger margin, from one city to another over North China and they are also closely related to the relative humidity. It is found that the behaviours of East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are the major important systems that give rise to the summer high temperature weather over the region. Based on these findings, the 5-day, 10-day and monthly assessment models for such high impact events have been developed. The assessment outcomes prove to be useful in assessing severe high-temperature events in major cities of North China.     

近年来GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式预报效果检验评估

使用天气学检验方法,对中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所目前使用的GRAPES-SDM沙尘暴预报业务模式在2008-2011年春季沙尘天气预报情况进行检验评估。结果表明：①自2008年以来,GRAPES-SDM沙尘暴模式对中国北方区域沙尘天气的模拟预报能力较好,TS评分和预报效率保持较高的水平;②模式对内蒙古地区、河套地区及甘肃河西地区的预报效果最好,但常有空报或预报沙尘强度偏强的现象;模式能预报出南疆盆地的沙尘天气,但常有预报范围偏小、强度偏弱的现象;对青海地区的沙尘天气常有漏报现象;③模式对沙尘暴频发地区的预报效果较好,对沙尘天气偶发地区容易漏报,模式对新疆东部、内蒙古中西部地区空报较多;④模式对大范围沙尘天气过程的预报能力较好,对零星沙尘天气预报能力较差。通过检验,我们还提出了改进和完善GRAPES-SDM沙尘暴预报系统的一些建议。     

3 万年来亚洲降水与大气环流变化重建和模拟综述

区域性的湖泊水位能反映有效降水及气候变化,已成为重建第四纪降水和水量平衡最重要的指标。亚洲分布着几乎全球各种成因类型的湖泊,第四纪湖泊演化在全球第四纪研究中占有重要地位。多年来通过对地貌学、沉积学、生物地球化学和考古学的研究重建了各个区域的湖泊水位变化,并据此建立了湖泊演变数据库,作为研究第四纪亚洲区域气候变化的重要基础。本文介绍湖泊水位气候理论的发展历程,回顾晚第四纪亚洲湖泊水位研究的历史;分析晚第四纪亚洲从西到东不同区域湖泊水位变化历史和地域特征,并根据晚第四纪冰期和间冰期的两个特征期湖泊空间变化特征,从古气候模拟的角度探讨了气候驱动机制下湖泊水位变化的成因。     

SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性评价——以乌裕尔河中上游流域为例（英文）

In this paper, we selected the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River basin in the black soil region of Northeast China as the study area. We adopted the soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and evaluated the parameter sensitivity using partial correlation coefficient. We calibrated and validated our simulation results based on the daily runoff data from Yi'an hydrological station at the outlet of the river basin and the evaporation data recorded by various weather stations from 1961 to 1997. Following evaluation of the modeling data against the observed data, we present the applicability of SWIM in the river basin of the black soil region, and discuss the resulting errors and their probable causes. Results show that in the periods of calibration and validation, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) coefficients of the monthly and daily runoffs were not less than 0.71 and 0.55, and the relative errors were less than 6.0%. Compared to daily runoffs, the simulation result of monthly runoffs was better. Additionally, the NSE coefficients of the potential monthly evaporation were not less than 0.81. Together, the results suggest that the calibrated SWIM can be utilized in various simulation analyses of runoffs on a monthly scale in the black soil region of Northeast China. On the contrary, the model had some limitations in simulating runoffs from snowmelt and frozen soil. Meanwhile, the stimulation data deviated from the measured data largely when applied to the years with spring and summer floods. The simulated annual runoffs were considerably higher than the measured data in the years with abrupt increases in annual precipitation. However, the model is capable of reproducing the changes in runoffs during flood seasons. In summary, this model can provide fundamental hydrological information for comprehensive management of the Wuyuer River basin water environment, and its application can be potentially extended to other river basins in the black soil region.     

滇黔静止锋减弱北抬期间环流特征分析

采用2010—2021年深秋初冬时节（11—12月）ECMWF细网格2 m温度预报资料,以及实况地面气压场、综合观测资料、卫星资料与NCEP/NCAR提供的FNL再分析资料,对滇黔静止锋减弱北抬期间贵州境内84个国家观测站72 h内逐日最高温、最低温进行检验评估。结果发现,滇黔静止锋活动期间相对于平均状态,其预报准确率均显著降低而平均均方根误差明显增加,其中2014年ECMWF预报准确率不足20%,几乎丧失预报能力。为此,以2014年发生的19次滇黔静止锋减弱北抬个例进行合成分析,发现各层环流和要素场特征较平均状态均发生了明显变化。主要表现为：200 hPa上,静止锋摆动期间较平均状态急流入口有所东移,其南北界区域总体变窄,急流中心平均强度由65.0 m/s下降到60.0 m/s;500 hPa上,中高纬两槽一脊形势变得更加不明显,冷空气势力减弱,环流纬向度增大;要素场上,相对平均状态,0℃线均位于600 hPa附近,中低层气温呈现明显增温状态,700~850 hPa逆温状态变弱甚至消散,在低层风场上表现为南风增强、涡度增大。因此,当滇黔静止锋发生减弱北抬时,其环流和要素场特征相对平均状态均发生强度和位置上的变化,在预报工作中,可以此特征判断静止锋是否减弱北抬,更好地进行地方预报与服务。     

Regional differences of border geo-cities in China and the surrounding countries

As the improvement of international status and the implementation of China’s neighboring diplomacy, the development of border regions and the security of border cities, as well as their spatial structure and regional differences are gaining more attention from academic circle. Based on the interdisciplinary perspectives of urban geography, regional economics and geopolitics, this paper explores the regional differences of border geo-cities in China and the surrounding countries with the help of remote sensing information acquisition and ArcGIS spatial analysis. Three primary results are found as follows: (1) The border geo-cities in China and surrounding countries are divided into five geographical regions: geo-cities in South China Sea, geo-cities in Southeast Asia, geo-cities in South Asia, geo-cities in Central Asia and geo-cities in Northeast Asia. (2) In the spatial structure system of China’s border geo-cities, the importance of geo-cities in five major regions is fairly different. In terms of the security and economic development, the rank of priority is geo-cities in North-east Asia, geo-cities in South China Sea, geo-cities in Central Asia, geo-cities in South Asia, geo-cities in Southeast Asia. (3) Considering China’s geo-setting for the development of border geo-cities, the east region is significantly better than the west, and the north region is slightly better than the south.     

Spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road 1950–2050

This paper uses data for the period 1950–2050 compiled by the United Nations Population Division together with methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and the standard deviational ellipse, to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the 75 countries located along the routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, to identify future population growth and urbanization hotspots. The results reveal the following: First, in 2015, the majority of Belt and Road countries in Europe, South Asia and Southeast Asia had high population densities, whereas most countries in Central Asia, North Africa and West Asia, as well as Russia and Mongolia, had low population densities; the majority of countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa had rapid population growth, whereas many countries in Europe had negative population growth; and five Belt and Road countries are in the initial stage of urbanization, 44 countries are in the acceleration stage of urbanization, and 26 are in the terminal stage of urbanization. Second, in the century from 1950 to 2050, the mean center of the study area’s population is consistently located in the border region between India and China. Prior to 2000, the trajectory of the mean center was from northwest to southeast, but from 2000 it is on a southward trajectory, as the population of the study area becomes more concentrated. Future population growth hotspots are predicted to be in South Asia, West Asia and Southeast Asia, and hotspot countries for the period 2015–2030 include India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, though China will move into negative population growth after 2030. Third, the overall urban population of Belt and Road countries increased from 22% in 1950 to 49% in 2015, and it is expected to gradually catch up with the world average, reaching 64% in 2050. The different levels of urbanization in different countries display significant spatial dependency, and in the hundred-year period under consideration, this dependency increases before eventually weakening. Fourth, between 2015 and 2030, urban population hotspots will include Thailand, China, Laos and Albania, while Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar and Estonia will be urban “coldspots.” Fifth, there were 293 cities with populations over 1 million located along the Belt and Road in 2015, but that number is expected to increase to 377 by 2030. Of those, 43 will be in China, with many of the others located in India, Indonesia and the eastern Mediterranean.     

广西边境地区旅游区位与资源优势及其利用

广西边境地区背靠南西南腹地,面不南旅游热点地区,是中越边贸的主要集散地和我国与东南亚等地的重要通道,区域内具有在历史军事遗迹,壮文化风性、南亚热带滨海风光、喀斯特峰丛,峰林山水风光和森林与珍稀生物景观待特色性旅游资源,因此,本区应抓好政策与发展机遇,以资源优势为依托,积极参与区域旅游协作,发挥区位优势,加快边境跨国旅游的发展,注重旅游资源的持续利用,使旅游业稳步蓬勃发展。     

普里兹湾区域风和温度资料对比分析: 以2007 年为例

通过分析再分析资料与站点观测资料的差异评估了普里兹湾区域5 套再分析资料的风速、风向以及 温度产品。这5 套再分析资料包括欧洲中心再分析资料(ERA-I)、日本25 年再分析资料(JRA-25)、日本55 年再分析资料(JRA-55)、美国国家环境预报中心再分析资料(CFSR)和美国国家航空航天局再分析资料 (MERRA)。采用的观测资料来自两个人工观测站和三个自动气象站。月平均和季节差异分析结果表明, Mawson 站点再分析资料的风速一般小于站点风速, 其他站点再分析资料一般风速过大, 所有的站点风向与 再分析资料风向差异不大, 再分析资料的2 m 温度总体低于人工观测站的温度, 自动站和再分析资料的差 异则没有一致的差异特征。通过6 h 风速资料对比, 发现当Mawson 站点风速低于5 m·s^–1 时, 再分析资料偏 高, 当站点风速高于15 m·s^–1 时, 再分析资料偏低, 且该站点记录的极端强风次数远多于再分析资料。     

10个CMIP5模式预估中亚地区未来50 a降水时空变化特征

利用CRU月降水资料首先对参与IPCC第五次评估报告（IPCC AR5）的10个CMIP5模式对1951-2005年中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势等特征参数的模拟能力进行了系统评估,并选取具有较好模拟性能模式的未来预估试验结果作多模式集合平均预估未来50 a（2011-2060年）中亚地区在不同代表性浓度路径下降水量各特征参数的空间分布特征,结果表明：多数模式能够模拟出中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势的空间分布特征,同时发现中亚地区年降水量在过去50 a整体以轻微增加为主,趋势不显著。根据定量评估结果,从10个模式中选取4个具有较好模拟性能的模式结果做集合平均,同时利用历史回报试验数据进行检验,发现集合平均的模拟结果无论在量级还是高、低值中心的位置和范围与CRU资料非常接近。未来预估结果表明4种排放情景下4模式集合平均的中亚年降水在未来50 a增加较为明显,尤其在中国新疆南部（由低值区转变为高值区）。总体来看,未来50 a中亚降水增加趋势随着RCPs的增加而增加,且降水增加显著的区域随着RCPs的增加而明显增大。