Stochastic modelling of mineral deposits

Mineral deposits are characterized by certain continuity of assay values, thickness and top and bottom surfaces of ore zones etc., which are amenable to stochastic modelling with respect to spatial coordinates. The French School (Matheron, 1963) introduced rather difficult terminology of semi-variogram, kriging etc. for quantitative assessment of reserves and average grade of mining property under the assumption of second-order stationarity of first differenced (d=1) data. A more general, powerful and well-known time-domain (spatial) stochastic models (ARIMA (p, d, q); based on Box and Jenkins, 1970, 1976; Anderson, 1976) are introduced herein which include Matheron Model (d=1) as a special case.     

Malaria reinfestation on the Northern Border of Argentina

Until 1950 malaria was a major public health hazard in Argentina affecting a large number of people in the northern territory. In that year a Malaria Eradication Programme began and this initiated a dramatic fall in incidence especially in the north east in subsequent years.In 1970 there was an increase in the incidence in the north west of the country. Than, in 1989 malaria was diagnosed along the northeastern border. The earlier outbreak was associated with the growth of border traffic and increasing immigration. Ecological changes consequent upon the building of large dams in the Paraná basin have been blamed for the outbreak in 1989.The reinfestation of malaria of northern Argentina is analysed, from the point of view of the trends in incidence during the period 1937–89 and especially the increase after 1970. Control measures are also proposed.     

School vulnerability to disaster: examination of school closure,demographic, and exposure factors in Hurricane Ike’s wind swath

Damage and destruction to schools from climate-related disasters can have significant and lasting impacts on curriculum and educational programs, educational attainment, and future income-earning potential of affected students. As such, assessing the potential impact of hazards is crucial to the ability of individuals, households, and communities to respond to natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises. Yet, few studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of schools in coastal regions of the USA. Using Hurricane Ike’s tropical storm wind swath in the State of Texas as our study area, we: (1) assessed the spatial distribution patterns of school closures and (2) tested the relationship between school closure and vulnerability factors (namely physical exposure and school demographics) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The regression results show that higher probabilities of hurricane strikes, more urbanized school districts, and school districts located in coastal counties on the right side of Ike’s path have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of school closure days. Socioeconomic characteristics were not significantly associated with the number of days closed, with the exception of proportion of Hispanic youth in schools, a result which is not supported by the social vulnerability literature. At a practical level, understanding how hurricanes may adversely impact schools is important for developing appropriate preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and adaptation strategies. For example, school districts on the right side of the hurricane track can plan in advance for potential damage and destruction. The ability of a community to respond to future natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises depends in part on mitigating these adverse effects.     

Urban malaria in Africa: an environmental and socio-economic modelling approach for Yaoundé, Cameroon

Most of the existing predictive malaria risks spatial models use very broad spatial scales, and they are usually built-up for continental or national outlines. These models usually do not account for the complexity of socio-economic variables intervening into the malaria transmission process as well malaria prevention strategies. These spatial and thematic shortcomings are particularly interesting when looking at urban environments. This paper explains why a focus on urban malaria overcomes these shortcomings. A set of environmental variables derived from remotely sensed and ground climate station sources was used to build-up an ecological model. An original data collection process based on GPS measurements and retrospective interviews was introduced for the creation of various geoepidemiological and geosocial variables. Multinomial logistic models were used to predict and evaluate the contribution of various thematically separated groups of variables to malaria risk. Finally, it was possible to statistically and spatially evaluate the contribution of ecologic, socio-ecologic, socio-economic and behavioural characteristics of these groups of variables to malaria risks.     

1959-2008长江源被净初级生产力对气候变化的响应

基于长江源区1959-2008年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、降水量、风速和日照时数等气候要素资料,应用修订的Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了50a被净初级生产力,分析其年际和年代际变化特征及其对气候变化的响应.结果表明：1959-2008年间,研究区年NPP变化呈显著上升趋势,NPP变...     

多尺度气象干旱与土壤相对湿度的关系研究

通过分析我国东北、华北、西北地区东部、西南以及黄淮、江淮和江汉5个区域不同时间尺度气象干旱指数与20 cm土壤相对湿度的相关关系, 探讨了前期气象干旱对后期土壤湿度的影响, 并利用多元线性回归方法分区域、分季节建立了土壤湿度预测模型.结果表明: 春季, 东北地区土壤湿度主要受前5~6个月, 尤其是上年秋末冬初的降水的影响, 而其他4个区域土壤湿度主要受前1~2个月大气水分的影响;各区域夏季土壤湿度与前1~2个月时间尺度上的大气水分相关最密切;秋季, 东北地区20 cm土壤湿度主要受前2~4个月的气象干旱的影响, 其余区域土壤湿度仍与前1~2个月尺度的大气水分相关最密切.基于前期气象干旱指数建立的各区域、各季节的土壤湿度回归模型对当地土壤湿度具有一定的拟合能力, 平均估计偏差在10.1%~13.9%之间, 其中, 西北地区东部和华北地区春、夏季偏差较大, 2008-2011年间干旱等级拟合准确率在65%~74.9%之间;东北、西南、黄淮、江淮和江汉区域拟合较好, 拟合准确率在88%以上.     

未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究进展

概述未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究的主要进展。首先,对用于开展气候变化预估研究的不同复杂程度的气候系统及地球系统模式及其模拟能力进行了简要的介绍,指出虽然目前气候系统模式在很多方面存在着较大的不确定性,但大体说来可提供当前气候状况的可信模拟结果;进而介绍了IPCC不同的排放情景,以及不同排放情景下全球与东亚区域气候变化预估的主要结果。研究表明,尽管不同模式对不同情景下未来气候变化预估的结果存有差异,但对未来50～100年全球气候变化的模拟大体一致,即全球将持续增温、降水出现区域性增加。在此基础上,概述了全球气候模式模拟结果的区域化技术,并重点介绍了降尺度方法的分类与应用。同时对气候变化预估的不确定性进行了讨论。最后,对气候变化预估的研究前景进行了展望,并讨论了未来我国气候变化预估研究的重点发展方向。     

Combined gamma and M-test-based ANN and ARIMA models for groundwater fluctuation forecasting in semiarid regions

The shortage of surface water in arid and semiarid regions has led to the more use of the groundwater resources. In these areas, the groundwater is essential for activities such as water supply and irrigation. One of the most important stages in sustainable yield of groundwater resources is awareness of groundwater level. In this study, we have applied artificial neural networks (ANN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for groundwater level forecasting to 4 months ahead in Shiraz basin, southwestern Iran. Time series analysis was conducted according to the Box–Jenkins method. Meanwhile, gamma and M-test were considered for determining the optimal input combination and length of training and testing data in the ANN model. The results indicated that performance of multilayer perceptron neural network (4, 14, 1) and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) is satisfactory in the groundwater level forecasting for one month ahead. The performance comparison shows that the ARIMA model performs appreciably better than the ANN.     

Drinking-water treatment,climate change,and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater

This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ～1.5%, range: ?3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ～3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ～82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%).     

温湿循环作用对三峡库区岸坡粉砂质泥岩力学特性及能量演化的影响研究

三峡库区岸坡表层岩体的风化特性及其稳定性受温度和湿度等气候环境显著影响。为了研究温湿循环作用对三峡库区岸坡粉砂质泥岩的劣化效应,将其加工后的标准岩石试样进行不同循环次数的温湿循环作用,然后测试其单轴压缩力学性能,分析其应力-应变曲线、强度、变形、破裂特征及能量特征。结果表明,随着粉砂质泥岩试样受温湿循环作用的次数从0增加到5,其单轴抗压强度、弹性模量、变形模量、总能量、可释放弹性能及其占比均与温湿循环作用次数呈近似的线性负相关关系,降幅分别达到49.21%、53.11%、57.78%、42.29%、58.7%和32.45%;而消耗能及其占比与温湿循环作用次数近似呈正相关关系,增幅分别达到80.86%和215.27%。细观上,温湿循环作用使粉砂质泥岩颗粒间的黏结力降低,从而使其颗粒间发生破坏时的强度减小、脆性增加、黏性降低,其变化幅度与温湿循环次数呈正相关关系;同时,颗粒间黏结力降低幅度在岩体内不是均匀分布的,而是由表及里呈一定的梯度变化,越靠近表面,其降低幅度越大。从而使得岩石试样在单轴压缩变形破坏过程中易于产生横向膨胀的张拉型翼裂纹或斜向的张拉-剪切混合型翼裂纹,岩块破碎,宏观上表现出脆性降低,塑性增加的劣化特征。     

Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical downscaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, downscaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and downscaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the midlatitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability.     

Diagnosis of Free and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

A methodology for diagnosis of free and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) is reviewed and illustrated for Kelvin and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves. The method is based on prefiltering of the geopotential and horizontal wind, using three-dimensional normal mode functions of the adiabatic linearized equations of a resting atmosphere, followed by space–time power and cross-spectral analysis applied to the normal-mode-filtered fields and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) to identify spectral regions of coherence. The methodology is applied to geopotential and horizontal wind fields produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis and OLR data produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The same type of data simulated by two climate models that participated in the fifth phase of the climate model intercomparison project are also used. Overall, simulation of free and CCEWs was achieved by the models with moderate success. Kelvin and MRG waves were identified in the space–time spectral domains, using both observationally based and climate model datasets. Other nonequatorial waves, classified as tropical depression and extratropical storm track activity, along with the Madden–Julian oscillation were also observed. However, significant deviations were also evident in the models, which may help identification of deficiencies in the models’ simulation schemes for some physical processes. Therefore, this diagnosis method should be a useful procedure for climate model validation and model benchmarking.     

The changing malaria risk patterns in East-Central Europe and the North Balkans in the last 27 000 years

Southeast Europe has historically been at the crossroads of migration routes between Western Asia and Europe. In the Holocene, this area might have been home to malaria. However, it is questionable when malaria arrived in this area and whether it could persist continuously or not in the Holocene. To begin to answer these questions, the July potential generation number of two malaria parasites were modelled, based on the reconstructed mean July temperatures of 52 times in the last 27 000 years. The results indicate that in the late Pleistocene era (27–12 kya bp ), vivax malaria might have been present in the south-east Black Sea and Aegean Sea's coastal areas. Vivax malaria could also be present in the Pannonian Basin and the inner parts of the North Balkans at least from the mid-Greenlandian period (~10 kya bp ). Although it is questionable whether falciparum malaria could be endemic in the Pannonian Basin during the mid-Holocene climate optimum (~6 kya bp ), this malaria plausibly could be endemic from the Neolithic era (~12–6.5 kya bp ) in the major river valleys of the North Balkan region, millennia ahead of the Graeco-Roman times (8th century bce to 6th century ce ).     

压实方式影响路基湿度场演变规律相似模拟试验研究

探究路基湿度场演变规律是解决路基工程水损害的基础问题之一,为研究路基湿度场受压实方式影响所产生的变化与分布问题,在相似准则推导的基础上构建了4种具备不同压实方式的室内路基相似物理试验模型。通过分析二维入渗方式的降雨试验结果,总结了不同压实方式影响下路床湿度场扰动区扩距、前扰动区湿度分布、湿度梯度和路堤湿度值变化的主要规律,并阐述其作用机制以及提出了相关工程建议。研究结果表明：路床湿度扰动区扩距随着路床压实度的增加呈线性递减;整个湿度扰动区可划分为前、后两个区域,前扰动区湿度分布基本呈线性速降状态,湿度梯度值随着路床压实度的增加呈线性提高;路床压实度对其下的路堤湿度影响效果显著,综合效应表现为路堤湿度随路床压实度增加呈线性递减;工程中严格控制上部路基压实效果对防止下部路基水毁病害有显著作用。     

Impact du réchauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique

At the planetary scale, the models consistently simulate an intensification of the hydrological cycle in a future climate, warmer than the present-day one. However, this intensification might be accompanied by its slowing down due to an increase of the residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere. The impact of climate change on extreme events is even more difficult to evaluate, as results are dependent on methods, emission scenarios and, above all, on models. However, the increase of extreme winter precipitation over northern Europe is a common feature of these evaluations. The hydrological cycle, through the geographical distribution of continental surface humidity, seems to play a key role on the possibility to detect the warming in France. To cite this article: S. Planton et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Effects of temperature and humidity upon the transport of sedimentary particles by wind

Wind tunnel simulations of aeolian transport carried out over a range in mean temperature between 32 °C and ?9 °C suggest that cold airflows support higher mass transport rates (Q) than very warm air. The magnitude of this increase is larger than expected, so that analytical and semi‐empirical models underestimate Q. Extrapolation of the results suggests that, at ?40 °C, as for example in the dry valleys of Antarctica in winter, Q may be as much as 70% higher than for the equivalent wind speed in hot deserts at air temperatures of 40 °C. Temperature‐dependent changes in air density and turbulence contribute to this result. The decreased tension of water adsorbed onto particle surfaces at low temperatures is postulated to reduce interparticle cohesion and, thus, to increase the elasticity of particle impacts on cold beds. Definition of the roles that temperature and humidity play in aeolian transport is relevant to studies of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and extraterrestrial (or planetary) geology. Investigation of present‐day, cold climate features and of climate change effects also requires knowledge of these fundamental relations.     

Research Progress on the Impact of Urbanization on Climate Change

The world has been undergoing a remarkable process of urbanization, especially in developing countries in recent years. The urbanization process has brought about great urban development and large population agglomeration, changes in production and lifestyle, and man-made disturbances such as greenhouse gas and pollution emissions. As the global urbanization process continues to advance, its impact on climate change continues to strengthen significantly. This paper mainly reviewed and summarized relevant researches from two aspects: the influence of urbanization on climate change and the mechanism of influence of urbanization on climate change. Urbanization causes regional warming and urban heat island effect, extreme events such as high temperature, heat wave and heavy rainfall increase in frequency, and also leads to increased urban flood risk. The increase of pollutant emission in the process of urbanization is the main cause of air quality deterioration. Urbanization also has an indirect impact on air quality by changing urban climate. Urbanization has an important impact on climatic factors such as relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine and cloud cover. The impacts of urbanization on climate change are mainly realized through underlying surface changes, greenhouse gas and pollution emissions, anthropogenic heat emissions and urban high heat capacity. Urbanization not only directly affects the regional/local climate, but also indirectly affects the regional/local climate by promoting global climate change. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on climate change has a global and regional multi-scale superposition effect.     

土体-大气相互作用下土质边坡稳定性研究

土体-大气相互作用是指在多种气象要素共同驱动下,地表浅层土体与大气之间进行物质交换与能量传递的复杂过程.受全球气候变化影响,近年来极端气候事件频发.土体的工程性质在日益严峻的气候环境下发生剧烈变化,产生了大量滑坡灾害,给岩土和地质工程领域带来许多新挑战.系统总结了降雨、气温、空气湿度、风以及太阳辐射5个主要气象要素影响边坡稳定性的机制,分析了土体龟裂、地表植被和土体-大气相互作用之间的关联效应.通过介绍各因素在改变边坡稳定性过程中发挥的作用,构建了一个包括气象要素、土体龟裂以及地表植被的土体-大气相互作用分析体系.该体系为今后土体-大气相互作用下土质边坡稳定性研究确定了关键研究问题,所揭示的作用机理可为今后同类研究提供参考.针对该课题的研究现状,笔者提出了今后的研究方向和重点,包括土体-植被-大气相互作用的理论模型、气候作用下冻土坡体失稳机理、极端气候工程地质作用的生态调控措施三个方面.      

On the effect of moisture bonding forces in air-dry soils on threshold friction velocity of wind erosion

Wind erosion is a dominant geomorphological process in arid and semi-arid regions with major impacts on regional climate and desertification. The erosion process occurs when the wind speed exceeds a certain threshold value, which depends on a number of factors including surface soil moisture. The understanding and modelling of aeolian erosion requires a better understanding of the soil erodibility associated with different moisture conditions. In arid regions during the dry season, the atmospheric humidity plays an important role in determining the surface moisture content and the threshold shear velocity. By a series of wind tunnel tests and theoretical analyses, this dependence of threshold velocity on near surface air humidity is shown for three soils of different textures: sand, sandy loam, and clay loam. The results show that the threshold shear velocity decreases with increasing values of relative humidity for values of relative humidity between about 40% and 65%, while above and below this range the threshold shear velocity increases with air humidity. A theoretical framework is developed to explain these dependencies assuming an equilibrium between the surface soil moisture and the humidity of the overlying atmosphere. The conditions under which soil-atmosphere equilibrium occurs were tested experimentally in the laboratory for different soils in order to determine the effect of grain surface area and texture on the time required to reach equilibrium starting from different initial conditions.     

Minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran

One of the most important scientific concerns of the last few decades is climate change, which is the result of a great many factors like global warming. Although a number of studies have been dedicated to understand the phenomenon of climate change, more attention is required to understand the potential effects of global warming on the ecosystems as well as on human life. The present study was designed to survey the trends of minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity, and the time series of annual precipitation and 10-year moving average low-pass filter in the 13 synoptic weather stations of Iran’s arid and semi-arid regions during the last 55 years by using τ Kendall test. The analyses indicate a significantly increasing trend for the minimum and mean temperatures while a decreasing trend for the mean relative humidity in the arid and semi-arid regions, especially during the last few years up to the year 2000. Any clear increasing or decreasing trend was not found for the maximum temperature, while the precipitation did not show any increasing/decreasing trend for most of the surveyed stations. Further studies, with long-term programming, are recommended to be carried out to evaluate the climate change and its effects on such regions.