有关《南加州地区大地震发生与太阴—太阳潮周期的相关性》一文的三则新闻报道

月球引力引起地震赖特(Pearce Wright)根据《自然》杂志最近一期所发表的论证,月球不仅能够控制海洋潮夕规律,而且能够通过地表产生引力脉动而触发地震。由月球引力和地震产生的固体潮理论已经争论了几十年。可以表明在地震事件与月球和太阳方位之间大多数假设的相互关系是不符合逻辑的,或者是由于没有成功地应用精确的统计分析方法,所以必需满有把握地证明这种相关性。此外,当应变在隆起区释放时,和一个地     

天体运动与华东地区地震活动的关系

分析了１９０１－１９９３年内华东地区Ｍｓ≥４．５地震活动与天体运动的关系。分析结果表明，华东地区的地震活动与天体运动的关系比较密切，其中，太阳活动强弱对于该区地震的调制作用是比较明显的；月球引力的影响约占地震总数的４１％，其它天体由于距离遥远，引力微弱，难以对该区地震形成影响。     

地球潮汐与地震

正像海洋在月球影响下发生涨潮和落潮一样,地壳也是有规律地升和降,但其量值甚小。探索此种地球潮汐与地震联系的尝试,至今尚无成效。美国的威姆斯(R.Weems)对1937年以来美国东部全部地震的地点和时间的资料做了分析。结果表明,在有近6千万年来形成的地壳大断层系通过的地方,地球潮汐能促使地震活动增加。     

利用非线性摩擦有限元方法计算大凉山次级块体及其周边地区地震危险性

大部分地震是在复杂的物性条件下,应力不均匀加载作用下断层活动的结果,还受到断层结构和断层相互作用的影响,导致地震中长期预测研究中常用的"地震空区"理论出现误差。断层的摩擦行为可以体现断层的不均匀破裂过程,文中尝试将非线性摩擦有限元方法应用到区域地震危险性评价中,模拟计算了大凉山次级块体及周边地区主要断层的摩擦行为,将断层节点破裂与7级以上历史地震的时空演化进行对比。结果表明,模拟所得的断层破裂与历史地震对应较好,且在地震震级、地震破裂顺序上都有良好表现。模拟结果还显示,小江断裂和则木河断裂有可能是后续地震危险性较强的地区,在更长的时间内,大凉山断裂和安宁河断裂具有发生中等强度地震的可能,鲜水河断裂的北段可能发生较大地震。     

平行走滑断层相互作用的粘弹模型和减震作用

研究了二维粘弹性介质中平行走滑断层的相互力学作用及其地震活动性的影响。当一条断层发生滑动,将导致平行断层面上剪切应力减小,因此,可能推迟平行断层发生滑动,推迟时间在几年至几百年的范围内,这取决于发生滑动的断层与平行断层之间的距离,以及平行断层自身应力积累孕育地震过程经历的时间。     

地震学百科知识(四)——慢地震

引言慢地震是指以几小时到几个月的时间尺度缓慢地发生了有限的断层位移、但没有地震波辐射的断层慢滑动事件。由于有人将震源过程慢、但仍辐射地震波的地震(常常是与发生海啸有关的地震)称为慢地震,所以不辐射地震波的慢地震有时被称为"静地震"。     

新的地震断层模型显示“稳定”断层可能是大规模地震的关键诱因

2013年1月9日,Nature发表有关地震发生机理及断层行为的文章,文章认为:引发大规模地震最关键的因素在于"稳定"断层,而非活动断层。这一观点颠覆了"活动断层是导致地震发生的直接原因"的传统观点。在地震发生时,地面运动是断层两盘相对快速移动或滑动释放能量的结果,其相对运动的平均速度约为每秒3英尺(约0.91m)。并非所有的断层移动都如此之快,有些断层运动表现为缓慢滑移即蠕变,通常被认为是稳定的。一般认为,断层的这种蠕变是持续的,并且不利于产生快速滑动而引发地震。但新的断层运动模拟显示上述常识可能并不正确。     

1979年加州凯奥蒂湖地震序列震源机制分析:美国加州地震比中国大陆地震破裂过程简单的证据

本文详细分析了1979年美国加利福尼亚凯奥蒂湖地震序列在时间和空间之中发展的非常有序的过程.对凯奥蒂湖地震序列,在三种情况下分别做出34次地震的断层面解.分析了美国地质调查局观测报告中地震初动的可信性.论证了伯克利加利福尼亚大学的地壳模型与美国地质调查局的地壳模型对于求断层面解的等效性.与唐山地震序列相比,凯奥蒂湖地震序列表现出4个主要特点:1.震中分布呈规则的狭长条带,与断层的关系密切;2.断层面解中出现的矛盾初动少;3.断层面解之间的一致性好;4.断层面解随时间没有明显的变化.这些都表明,凯奥蒂湖地震序列比唐山地震序列特征简单,前者基本上是沿卡拉维拉斯断层发生的面破裂,而后者却是在一定震源区中发生的体破裂.唐山地震序列的特征在中国大陆是有代表性的.若凯奥蒂湖地震序列的这些特点,在加州也具有代表性,则这两个地震序列的差别,可以作为美国加州地震比中国大陆地震发生环境和发生过程都简单的一个证据.     

1979年加州凯奥蒂湖地震序列震源机制分析:美国加州地震比中国大陆地震破裂过程简单的证据

本文详细分析了1979年美国加利福尼亚凯奥蒂湖地震序列在时间和空间之中发展的非常有序的过程.对凯奥蒂湖地震序列,在三种情况下分别做出34次地震的断层面解.分析了美国地质调查局观测报告中地震初动的可信性.论证了伯克利加利福尼亚大学的地壳模型与美国地质调查局的地壳模型对于求断层面解的等效性.与唐山地震序列相比,凯奥蒂湖地震序列表现出4个主要特点:1.震中分布呈规则的狭长条带,与断层的关系密切;2.断层面解中出现的矛盾初动少;3.断层面解之间的一致性好;4.断层面解随时间没有明显的变化.这些都表明,凯奥蒂湖地震序列比唐山地震序列特征简单,前者基本上是沿卡拉维拉斯断层发生的面破裂,而后者却是在一定震源区中发生的体破裂.唐山地震序列的特征在中国大陆是有代表性的.若凯奥蒂湖地震序列的这些特点,在加州也具有代表性,则这两个地震序列的差别,可以作为美国加州地震比中国大陆地震发生环境和发生过程都简单的一个证据.     

利用Virtual Quake地震模拟器研究鲜水河断裂带地震活动性与地震复发周期

2022年9月5日四川泸定6.8级地震发生在鲜水河断裂带磨西断裂上。本文依据鲜水河断裂带的断层几何形态、断层面物理力学参数、断层滑移速率等基础资料,构建断裂带三维模型,基于Virtual Quake地震模拟器开展鲜水河断裂带准静态数值模拟。对七条分支断裂独立模拟的结果显示模拟结果与历史地震的最大震级和复发周期具有较好的一致性。结果表明模型长度影响震级大小,滑移速率影响地震复发周期。断层面几何弯曲展布使得断层面应力分布不均匀,在弯曲处出现应力积累的现象,易触发地震,并出现了地震分段破裂现象,降低了几何弯曲断层的地震频次,为强震的孕育创造了条件。联合模拟的10000年时间内,鲜水河断裂带共发生了33次M≥7.0地震,最大震级为M7.6,地震活动性呈现一定的活跃期与平静期。断层系统地震间的相互应力作用和复杂的断层几何结构影响着地震迁移的复杂性。道孚断裂上相距40年发生两次M≥7.0地震,乾宁断裂北端相距5.8年发生M≥7.0双震,此类现象与历史地震有一定的相似性。     

Erosional unloading,hillslope geometry,and the height of the Cascade Range,Washington State,USA

Peaks in the Cascade Range in northern Washington State are on average ～800 m higher than in southern Washington. The influences of differential valley excavation and variations in hillslope length and average slope on these altitudinal trends were tested using a 3‐dimensional model for isostatic rock uplift and calculations of hillslope length and slope respectively. The magnitude of isostatic peak uplift calculated by the model is highly dependent on the flexural rigidity (D) and the related effective elastic thickness (T_e) of the crust of this region. Crustal rigidity was constrained using published estimates and by estimating the depth of the seismogenic zone in the area (D > 1 × 10²³ Nm and T_e > 24 km). With these constraints, isostatic compensation due to differential erosion added < 700 m and 300 m, or < 25% overall, of height to peaks in the northern and southern Cascades, respectively. Deeper valley incision in the northern Cascades accounts for < 300 m of the 800 m difference in peak altitudes between north and south. Similarly, variation in valley spacing and slope account for < 350 m of the difference in mean altitude between northern and southern regions. Hence, at least several hundred m difference in altitude between the northern and southern regions of the Cascades in Washington must be due to tectonic, geologic, or geophysical factors rather than surficial and geomorphic effects like isostatic response to valley incision and hillslope geometry. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Volcanoes, the stratosphere, and climate

A list of volcanic eruption plumes observed to ascend into or near the stratosphere since 1883 shows that the volcanoes divide readily into two groups, one at low and one at higher latitudes. A model for the rise of a buoyant volcanic plume rise as applied to volcanic eruptions is corrected for realistic temperature profiles and for the finite vertical extent of the resultant debris clouds. The utility of the model can be questioned, however, owing to the highly uncertain and variable nature of the efficiency of use of heat energy of buoyant rise. The observed correlation of stratospheric plumes with climatic effects indicates that those plumes nearer the equator have the largest impact on surface temperatures. Analysis of the observations also suggests that injection of debris into the stratosphere is more important in determining the effect on climate than either the total volcanic explosivity of the eruption or the actual height reached within the stratosphere.     

On the theory of the axially-symmetric,time-average,state of the atmosphere

Summary A possible formal approach to a closed steady-state theory of the mean axially-symmetric variables is outlined. The approach involves alternating iterative solutions of the energy and momentum equations. In these equations the effects of transient eddy phenomena of all frequencies are assumed to be parameterized in terms of the mean symmetric variables.     

Subducted lithosphere,hotspots, and the geoid

The earth's largest positive geoid height anomalies are associated with subduction zones and hotspots. Although the correlation with subduction has been noted for many years, the correlation with hotspots is fully evident only when the subduction-related geoid highs are removed from the observed field. Using the assumption that subducted lithospheric slabs are uncompensated and are thermally re-equilibrated with the asthenosphere at the maximum depth of earthquakes, the expected geoid anomaly over subduction zones is calculated. This field provides a satis-factory fit to the observed circum-Pacific high. Subtraction of this predicted anomaly leaves a residual field which is correlated, at greater than the 99% confidence level, with the distribution of hotspots. Broad residual geoid highs occur over the central Pacific and the Africa/eastern Atlantic regions, the same areas where the hotspots are concentrated. The mass anomalies associated with hotspots and subducted slabs apparently control the location of the earth's spin axis.     

Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb in the water column and sediments of the Ob-Irtysh Rivers, Russia

Concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb were determined in filtered water, suspended particulate matter, and bottom sediments from a 2000 km section of the Ob and Irtysh Rivers. Dissolved Cd, Cr, Cu and Ni concentrations are similar to, or higher than, results from other Russian Arctic and large world river-estuaries. Concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb in suspended particulate matter are generally comparable to results from other Russian Arctic and large world rivers and estuaries. Comparison of trace metal ratios in crustal material and suspended particulate matter and bottom sediment suggests that the source of Cr, Cu and Ni is continental weathering. Particulate Cd and Pb are elevated relative to their crustal abundance, suggesting a source of these metals to the Ob-Irtysh in addition to continental weathering.     

Pore water testing and analysis: the good,the bad,and the ugly

The increasingly common practice of collecting and assessing sediment pore water as a primary measure of sediment quality is reviewed. Good features of this practice include: pore water is a key exposure route for some organisms associated with sediments; pore water testing eliminates particle size effects; pore water analyses and tests can provide useful information regarding contamination and pollution. Bad features include: pore water is not the only exposure route; pore water tests lack chemical or biological realism: their "sensitivity" relative to other tests may be meaningless due to manipulation and laboratory artifacts; many sediment and surface dwelling organisms are not directly influenced by pore water. Bad features can become ugly if: other exposure pathways are not considered (for toxicity or bioaccumulation); manipulation techniques are not appropriate; pore water tests are inappropriately linked to population-level effects. Pore water testing and analyses can be effective tools provided their limitations are well understood by researchers and managers.     

Mechanism of the June 4, 2000 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake

Introduction The June 4, 2000 southern Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake (16h28min26.2s UTC, 4.72, 102.09, 33 km, MS=8.0 [IRIS]) occurred under the Indian Ocean, near the Mentawai fault, along the well-known Sumatran subduction zone and the great Sumatran fault, all of which trend northwest-southeast. 1 800 houses were totally destroyed, 10 196 were heavily damaged, and 18 378 were slightly damaged by the earthquake. At least 97 people were killed, 1 900 were injured, and 122 000 were left…