冬季亚洲中纬度极端低温事件与巴伦支—喀拉海异常增暖的关系及联系机制

利用1979～2019年NCEP-DOE再分析资料,分析了亚洲中纬度冬季极端低温事件发生频次与巴伦支—喀拉海异常增暖的联系及可能机制。研究表明:巴伦支—喀拉海异常增暖通常对应西伯利亚高压异常增强及亚洲中纬度极端低温频发。进一步分析发现,伴随巴伦支—喀拉海异常增暖,新地岛、乌拉尔山附近出现位势高度正异常,在位势高度正异常的东侧、南侧对应显著的冷平流及下沉运动异常,并在近地面出现异常辐散气流,使得西伯利亚高压增强且向东南延伸。热力学方程诊断的结果表明:西伯利亚高压异常南侧东北风导致的异常冷平流、偏东风异常经过地形造成的异常上升运动以及辐射、感热、潜热交换造成的异常非绝热冷却导致亚洲中纬度近地面温度季节循环振幅增大,有利于极端低温频发。     

近30多年中国东北地区春季寒潮的年代际变化及其可能原因

利用1979~2011年中国东北地区119站气温观测数据,对东北春季寒潮的年代际变化特征进行了分析,并在此基础上通过分析大气环流及北极海冰的变化,对寒潮年代际变化的可能原因进行了探讨。结果表明,东北地区春季寒潮的频次及强度在20世纪80年代末和21世纪初均有明显年代际转折,即20世纪90年代寒潮频次减少而强度增加,21世纪初寒潮频次有所回升但强度减弱。北极新地岛地区海冰的变化可能是造成我国东北地区寒潮活动年代际变化的原因之一。20世纪90年代新地岛附近海冰迅速减少,地表温度明显升高,而高纬海平面气压偏低,此处冷空气不易南下,同时东亚大槽偏强,冷空气强度增加。21世纪初该区海冰减少趋势减缓,冷空气频次有所回升,强度减弱。     

1990年代和2000年代华北寒潮的对比及其与北极海冰的联系

基于华北区域均一化站点气温资料、NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料、CFSR大气再分析资料以及NOAA高分辨率北极海冰密集度资料,对比研究了1990年代与2000年代华北寒潮的差异及其与秋、冬季北极海冰的联系。结果表明:影响华北的区域性寒潮事件在1990年代（2000年代）发生的频次为1957~2011年最多（少）,但寒潮平均强度偏弱（强）,冷空气大多源自格陵兰岛（新地岛）附近,取偏西（偏北）路径进入华北。秋、冬季新地岛附近以及巴芬湾附近海冰在2000年代初显著减少,导致1990年代与2000年代出现显著环流差异:1990年代（2000年代）极区位势高度存在负异常（正异常）,欧亚大陆大型槽脊波动较弱（强）,绕极区西风较强（弱）,东亚大槽较弱（强）,西伯利亚高压较弱（强）,使得华北寒潮在两段时间出现上述差异。     

Simulation of bora in Novorossiysk

The bora event observed in Novorossiysk on February 6–8, 2012 was analyzed using the WRF numerical model of regional atmospheric circulation. The main meteorological parameters are reproduced. It is demonstrated that the maximum wind speed is reached in the area of the lee slope directly over the bay. It is obtained that the bora development is accompanied by intensive waves associated with the flowing around coastal mountains whose regime changes in time. Computed and measured changes in the surface wind speed are in a good agreement.     

Numerical Simulation and Observational Analysis of the Bora of Pag’s Ribs

The severe bora case that lasted from 13 to 15 November 2004 has been selected for the analysis of the bora of Pag’s ribs, which occurs in the northern part of the eastern Adriatic coast over the Pag island area (Croatia). According to the measurements from automatic stations, the MM5 numerical model is successful in the 10-min mean wind speed prediction at 10-m height. The vertical analysis of the wind speed and potential temperature also gave satisfactory results. At the commencement of the bora the modelled wind had a magnitude of 20ms⁻¹ at 10-m height in the Pag island area, which sharply attenuated in the cross direction and to the open sea. In this way the model has proved successful in predicting the characteristics of the bora of Pag’s ribs. Potential vorticity (PV) at 600m has lower values within PV banners than during the developed bora. The consequence is a strong jet emanating from the nearest gap. The vertical cross-sections through the centre of the gap point out a permanent hydraulic-like flow. At the time of the bora of Pag’s ribs the highest modelled turbulent kinetic energy is found in the jump-like region above the inversion and within the boundary layer along the lower boundary, ranging from 6–8m² s⁻². It is concluded that the dissipation in the hydraulic jumps and the wave breaking regions are the reasons for PV generation.     

Gustiness of the Novorossiysk bora

The development of the Novorossiysk bora on February 5–6, 2010 is simulated with high spatial and temporal resolution using the regional model of atmospheric circulation. Considered are typical features of the wind speed and air temperature fields. Singled out are two regimes defining the type of the air flowing around the mountain ridge and the temporal variability (gustiness) of the surface wind speed.     

秋季喀拉海海冰对2020和2021年12月京津冀冷暖反相的影响

2020/2021和2021/2022年冬季京津冀气温呈明显相反的季节内变化特征,前者前冬气温异常偏低后冬偏高,而后者前冬气温极端偏高后冬转冷。这两年前冬冷暖反相的直接原因是亚洲冬季风环流异常。2020年12月欧亚地区为典型的经向环流,西伯利亚高压偏强,乌拉尔山高压脊亦偏强,造成京津冀上空对流层中低层气温一致性偏低,而2021年12月环流形势相反。这两年冬季均处在拉尼娜背景下,但夏秋季喀拉海海冰异常有明显差异,可能是京津冀这两年前冬气温异常相反潜在的外强迫信号。统计和个例分析结果均表明,喀拉海海冰偏多易导致前冬西伯利亚高压偏弱,青藏高原地区海平面气压和亚洲大陆中纬度地区500 hPa位势高度均为正距平,不利于冷空气活动,造成2021/2022年前冬京津冀气温偏高,反之海冰偏少造成2020/2021年前冬偏冷。     

大气环流的一个数值试验

考虑地形及加热作用,建立了一个大气环流数值试验准地转二层模式。在辐射加热中考虑了云对长短波辐射的影响,而假定云的出现与否仅依赖于垂直速度。在模式中放置了北半球实际的地形及海陆分布,而下垫面的温度由求解下垫面热传导方程得出。把方程组化成非线性常微分方程组,用Runge-Kutta方法在电子计算机上求解。 在不计扰动的情况下,在具有年周期的太阳短波辐射的作用下,逐渐建立起下垫面纬圈平均温度梯度及基本气流。下垫面温度具有很清楚的季节变化,位相落后于太阳短波辐射一个月,求得的冬夏季的下垫面温度值与实际的气候值相当。基本气流也有明显的季节变化,夏季风速减弱,急流向北移,冬季风速增强,急流向南移,位相落后于太阳短波辐射一个多月。 北半球实际的海陆分市的热力特性,在冬季能使亚洲及太平洋上空变冷,并能使大西洋及欧洲上空变暖。在非绝热加热和地形的共同作用下,在冬季出现了随时间变化着的东亚大槽和北美大槽,以及冷空气活动过程。这种冷空气活动有其偏爱地区:起源于苏联新地岛上空,并向东南方向移动。     

2015-04-28渤海海雾形成过程中的海气相互作用分析

利用FY和MTSAT卫星资料、ERA Interim再分析资料、黄渤海浮标站资料、黄渤海自动站逐小时观测资料,对发生在2015年4月28—29日的渤海海雾成因进行分析,着重探讨了海雾形成过程中的海气相互作用。结果发现,近海面处大气低层逆温层抬升,大于90%的大湿度区向上、向西扩展,对海雾形成非常有利;海雾生成前、生成发展过程中存在明显的东到东南风,有利于黄海水汽向渤海输送,海面上空有水汽通量大值区由渤海海峡向渤海中部移动,使得渤海上空水汽输送加强,提供了海雾形成所需的水汽;在海雾形成过程中渤海上空气温高于海温,风切变造成的海气界面湍流热交换为大气输送向海洋,使得冷海面上空暖湿空气降温冷却达到饱和形成海雾,是平流冷却雾。      

Impact of land surface roughness on downslope windstorm modelling in the Arctic

The article considers the reasons for the underestimation of the wind speed by the WRF-ARW model when simulating downslope windstorms in the Russian Arctic. Simulation results for the Tiksi windstorm, for which sensitivity tests were carried out, appeared to be weakly dependent on the initial and boundary conditions, topography resolution, and boundary layer parameterization. Wind speed underestimation was mostly related to improper land use and the highly overestimated roughness length, which are used in the model. Reduction of the roughness length in accordance with the observations leads not only to a quantitative change in the wind speed in the boundary layer, but to qualitative changes in the dynamics of the flow. Wind underestimation in simulations with the overestimated roughness was caused by the jet stream unrealistically jumping over the lee slope and wake formation in the station area, while jet stream stayed near the surface and propagated to the station area in simulations with the modified roughness length. Modification of land use and roughness length in Tiksi and other regions where downslope windstorms are observed (Novaya Zemlya, Pevek, Wrangel Island) led to a decrease in wind speed modelling error by more than 2.5 times.     

秋季北极海冰对EP型ENSO的非线性响应

利用1961—2015年Hadley中心逐月海表温度资料、海冰密集度资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,探讨了秋季北极海冰对于EP型ENSO事件的异常响应,并进一步研究了这种异常响应的可能原因。结果表明,秋季北极海冰对EP型ENSO的响应具有非线性,特别是喀拉海海域(60°～90°E,70°～80°N)海冰无论在EP型El Ni?o或是La Ni?a位相,均表现为显著的负异常。进一步研究发现,不同ENSO位相造成该区域海冰异常偏少的机制有明显不同。EP型El Ni?o年秋季菲律宾附近海域对流活动被抑制,所激发的经向波列在高纬地区形成异常反气旋环流,其南风分量向喀拉海输送暖平流,造成海冰异常偏少。而EP型La Ni?a年喀拉海海域则主要受到来自大西洋开放性海域西风异常的影响,合成结果和个例年均显示EP型La Ni?a年秋季北大西洋上空存在一个显著的西风急流中心,有利于北大西洋开放性海域较暖海水向下游输送,进而影响喀拉海海冰。这些结果表明,热带外地区大气环流场对EP型ENSO的非线性响应导致了喀拉海海冰对EP型ENSO事件的响应也表现出明显的非线性。     

我国近海和邻近海的海洋环境对最近全球气候变化的响应

鉴于全球气候变暖对海洋环境和海洋生态及对经济和社会可持续发展影响的严重性,作者首先利用ERA-40再分析的风场资料以及HadISST 和SODA等海洋高分辨率再分析资料,分析了近50年来全球气候变化对中国近海(包括渤海、黄海、东海和南海)和邻近海(主要是热带和副热带西太平洋)海面附近的风力、海表纬向和经向风应力和海表温度的影响.分析结果表明: 由于受全球气候变暖的影响,1976年之后中国近海和邻近海上空的冬、夏季风变弱,从而引起中国近海冬、夏季海表风应力减弱(尤其是经向风应力),而海表水温明显上升; 并且,冬、夏季海表风应力的减弱和海水温度的上升在中国东海反映尤其明显,这些为中国近海赤潮的频繁发生提供了有利的海洋环境.此外,从中国近海上空环流散度分布的变化可见,中国近海上空从1976年之后大气环流辐散增强,这不利于中国近海上升流的形成,从而会对沿岸水域营养盐的输送产生影响.     

冬季东亚副热带急流和温带急流协同变化与我国冷空气活动的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和地面台站气温观测资料,分析了冬季东亚副热带急流（EASJ）和东亚温带急流（EAPJ）强度变化特征及其与我国境内冷空气活动的关系。以（45°N～60°N, 70°E～110°E）和（27.5°N～37.5°N,130°E～160°E）区域平均的300 hPa全风速分别表征冬季EAPJ和EASJ的强度,将两支急流的强度变化分为四种情况：EAPJ和EASJ同强（SS）、同弱（WW）、以及强弱（SW）、弱强（WS）。分析四种急流强度变化情形下中国境内冷空气活动强度、路径、持续时间以及源地的不同特征,发现当EAPJ和EASJ均强时,冷空气从内蒙古中东部入侵,主要影响华北、东北和东部沿海地区,强度较弱,持续时间短,冷空气源地位于新地岛以东的洋面及陆地上;当EAPJ和EASJ均弱时,冷空气从新疆北部入侵,影响我国大部分地区,强度强,持续时间长,冷空气源地位于巴尔喀什湖西部;当EAPJ强,EASJ弱时,冷空气从我国东北入侵,主要影响我国东北部,中国南部降温不明显,冷空气强度较强,持续时间短,冷空气源地位于中、西西伯利亚地带;当EAPJ弱,EASJ强时,冷空气从内蒙古中部入侵,进而影响华北和我国东部地区,但冷空气强度较弱,冷空气源地位于贝加尔湖的西侧。进一步分析急流强度四种变化情形下的环流特征发现,EAPJ、EASJ均弱时,西伯利亚高压偏强,阿留申低压偏弱,东亚大槽偏深,中国东部的偏北风强,而EAPJ弱、EASJ强时,尽管西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压偏强,东亚大槽偏深,但中国东部的偏北风并不是很强,而另两种情况时,西伯利亚高压较弱,东亚大槽也较弱,中国东部的偏北风偏弱。     

南海北部冷涌及其环流特征

利用中国南部沿海风向、地面气温及南海北部风速的变化确定南海北部冷涌的判别标准,构建了一个冷涌发生频率指数,对南海北部冷涌的年际变化特征及其环流异常进行讨论。结果表明,南海北部冷涌频率指数能够更加全面地描述冷涌系统的特征,与全国范围的冷空气爆发关系密切。南海北部冷涌与中高纬、中低纬环流具有密切的联系,是二者共同作用的结果。当贝加尔湖以西高压脊偏强,中高纬环流经向度加大,西太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱、位置偏东时,有利于大陆上冷空气南下入海,在南海北部形成冷涌。冷涌发生时,经向Hadley环流加强,调整中纬与低纬地区的大气质量,高层向北输送的大气在科氏力作用下导致东亚副热带西风急流加强,有利于冷涌的维持和加强。     

1981—2018年中国东北地区秋冬季霾日变化及其与北极海冰的关系

利用中国东北地区1981—2018年166个地面气象观测站资料, 定义了中国东北地区秋冬季霾日指数, 分析了年际尺度上该地区霾日数与同期大气环流异常的内在关系。结果表明: 中国东北地区秋冬季霾日指数存在显著的年际变化特征, 欧亚—太平洋遥相关型(Eurasia-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern, EUP)负位相、东亚大槽偏弱等大气环流异常配置导致中国东北地区秋冬季霾的发生频次增加。巴伦支海与喀拉海北部海域是影响中国东北地区秋冬季霾日年际变化的海冰关键区, 该区域海冰面积与霾日数呈显著负相关, 北极海冰通过改变大气环流间接影响中国东北地区秋冬季霾日发生频次, 当北极海冰异常偏少时, 东亚冬季风偏弱, 近地面风速偏低, 环境湿度偏高, 中国东北地区受东北亚异常反气旋西侧的异常偏南风控制, 且受“EUP”负位相模态影响, 东亚大槽减弱, 有利于大气污染物和水汽向中国东北地区输送, 该地区秋冬季霾的发生频次增加。     

澳大利亚冷空气活动对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响

利用1980—2012年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及中国气象局的最佳台风路径资料,研究澳大利亚冷空气活动对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响。研究发现,北半球夏季925 h Pa经向风超过6 m/s的频数在澳大利亚东北部海域最高,达40 d/a。为此,确定澳大利亚冷空气侵入南北半球低纬的关键区为澳大利亚东北部所罗门海地区,并用该区域经向风风速定义了一个澳大利亚冷空气活动强度指数。该指数与越赤道气流及赤道西风都有很好的相关关系,还与同期的SOI(Southern Oscillation Index,南方涛动指数)显著相关。当SOI偏低(高)时,关键区经向风风速偏强(弱)。合成分析和相关分析结果表明,澳大利亚冷空气活动强、弱年西北太平洋热带气旋生成的位置的变化与季风槽的变化一致,西北太平洋热带气旋生成总数则无显著差异。澳大利亚冷空气活动强年季风槽偏强偏东,热带气旋生成位置偏东偏南;而弱年季风槽偏弱偏西,热带气旋生成位置偏西偏北。低层涡度场、水汽输送、风垂直切变以及低纬地区对流活动的分布表明,澳大利亚冷空气活动强年有利于热带气旋生成位置偏东、偏南;弱年偏西、偏北。     

环渤海区域强风过程的气候特征模拟分析

采用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-interim再分析资料驱动WRF模式,对环渤海区域1981—2012年123次强风过程进行了模拟,并对不同天气系统形势下环渤海区域强风过程的气候特征进行了分析,得到以下结论：1）WRF数值模式可以较好地模拟环渤海区域强风过程的发展演变特征。2）西北路冷锋过程引起的环渤海区域强风强度较其他过程偏强,强风集中在辽东半岛西部、渤海海峡和山东半岛东部。黄河气旋引起的强风过程与冷锋相比,分布特征有着明显的不同,强风主要集中在山东半岛东部及黄海海域,渤海海域的强风相对偏弱。3）强风过程存在明显的季节变化,秋冬季强风持续时间长,风速大,春季次之,夏季最弱。4）强风过程在渤海海域的最大风速呈增加趋势,而在渤海海峡以东海域和山东半岛南部呈减小趋势。     

Characteristics of Subtropical Monsoon and Rainfall over Eastern China and Western North Pacific

Using the NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's merged analysis of precipitation (CMAP)during 1981-2000, we investigated the seasonal evolution of the southwesterly wind and associated precipitation over the eastern China-subtropical western North Pacific area and its relationship with the tropical monsoon and rainfall, and analyzed the reasons responsible for the onset and development of the wind. It was found that the persistent southwesterly wind appears over southern China and the subtropical western Pacific the earliest in early spring, and then expands southwards to the tropics and advances northward to the midlatitudes. From winter to summer, the seasonal variation of surface heating over western China and the subtropical western Pacific may result in an earlier reversal of the westward tropospheric temperature gradient over the subtropics relative to the tropics, which may contribute to the earliest beginning of the subtropical southwesterly wind. Additionally, the strengthening and eastward expanding of the trough near the eastern Tibetan Plateau as well as the strengthening and westward moving of the western Pacific subtropical high also exert positive influences on the beginning and development of the subtropical southwesterly wind.In early summer,the northward expansion of the southwesterly wind over southern China is associated with a northward shift of the subtropical high, while the southward stretch of the southwesterly wind is associated with a southward stretch of the trough in the eastern side of the plateau. With the beginning and northward expansion of the subtropical southwesterly wind (namely southwest monsoon), convergences of the low-level air and water vapor and associated upward motion in front of the strongest southwesterly wind core also strengthen and move northward, leading to an increase in rainfall intensity and a northward shift of the rain belt. Accordingly, the subtropical rainy season occurs the earliest over southern China in spring, moves northward to the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley in early summer, and arrives in North China in mid summer.Compared with the subtropical rainy season, the tropical rainy season begins later and stays mainly over the tropics, not pronouncedly moving into the subtropics. Clearly, the Meiyu rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley in early summer results from a northward shift of the spring rain belt over southern China,instead of a northward shift of the tropical monsoon rain belt. Before the onset of the tropical monsoon,water vapor over the subtropical monsoon region comes mainly from the coasts of the northern Indo-China Peninsula and southern China. After the onset, one branch of the water vapor flow comes from the Bay of Bengal, entering into eastern China and the subtropical western Pacific via southwestern China and the South China Sea, and another branch comes from the tropical western North Pacific, moving northwestward along the west edge of the western Pacific subtropical high and entering into the subtropics.     

A real data simulation of the Adriatic bora and the impact of mountain height on bora trajectories

Summary This study addresses simulation of the local bora wind and its properties as reflected on typical trajectories. Trajectory calculations are implemented in the Eta Model. The Eta Model has a vertical coordinate which permits a step-like representation of mountains and quasi-horizontal coordinate surfaces, the so-called eta coordinate. A realistic real data simulation of a bora wind case in achieved using the model with a 28 km horizontal resolution and 16 layers in the vertical. Numerical experiments with different mountain heights and shapes in the bora wind region are performed. These are motivated by observational indications and theoretically based expectations that a certain intermediate mountain elevation is required for generation of downslope windstorms with bora wind properties. Three-dimensional trajectories over various mountains mimicing real mountains but differing primarily in elevation are calculated and analysed. The maximum bora wind speed is predicted as expected through three-dimensional channels in the step mountain representations. The results illustrate and are in agreement with the observational evidence that mountain barriers of the elevation of about 1000 m are a necessary requirement for the occurrence of the bora-type downslope windstorms.With 10 Figures     

A Numerical Study of Sea-Fog Formation over Cold Sea Surface Using a One-Dimensional Turbulence Model Coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The formation mechanism of a cold sea-fog case observed over the Yellow Sea near the western coastal area of the Korean Peninsula is investigated using numerical simulation with a one-dimensional turbulence model coupled with a three-dimensional regional model. The simulation was carried out using both Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches; both approaches produced sea fog in a manner consistent with observation. For the selected cold sea-fog case, the model results suggested the following: as warm and moist air flows over a cold sea surface, the lower part of the air column is modified by the turbulent exchange of heat and moisture and the diurnal variation in radiation. The modified boundary-layer structure represents a typical stable thermally internal boundary layer. Within the stable thermally internal boundary layer, the air temperature is decreased by radiative cooling and turbulent heat exchange but the moisture loss due to the downward vapour flux in the lowest part of the air column is compensated by moisture advection and therefore the dewpoint temperature does not decrease as rapidly as does the air temperature. Eventually water vapour saturation is achieved and the cold sea fog forms in the thermal internal boundary layer.