基于强震台网观测的快速震灾评估系统的设想

通过实时地震观测数据获取能力和计算机性能的巨大提高 ,快速生成仪器观测的地面运动和地震动强度空间分布成为可能 ,利用这一成果结合地震灾害易损性研究成果和地震灾害评估模型 ,可以对破坏性地震造成的损失进行快速评估 ,为地震应急响应和决策指挥提供更可靠的信息支持。本文概述了利用强地面运动加速度观测资料进行地震灾害快速评估方法在国内外最新进展 ,提出了利用我省强震台网观测资料进行地震灾害快速评估的基本思路。     

GIS-based distributed technique for assessing economic loss from flood damage: pre-feasibility study for the Anyang Stream Basin in Korea

Large national budgets are required for flood damage reduction projects, making it critical to ensure that public money used therein be spent efficiently. Accordingly, reliable assessment of flood damage is a critical issue in analysis of the economic aspects of flood damage reduction projects. To this end, this study aims to provide a GIS (geographical information system)-based technique for distributed flood damage assessment. We consider two aspects of flood damage assessment from an engineering and economic perspective, i.e. flood inundation analysis and multi-dimensional flood damage analysis (MD-FDA). To perform this assessment, we used a GIS-based framework and data processing method to assess damages. The proposed methodology was applied to flood control channel projects for flood disaster prevention in the Anyang Stream Basin in Korea and presents detailed GIS data processing and assessment results. Findings from this study may contribute to the improvement of usability of MD-FDA and may provide research directions for integrating economic and engineering factors. This distributed technique will also assist in the decision-making process when evaluating the economic feasibility of flood damage reduction projects for structural and non-structural measures.     

积雪融雪过程中水、热、溶质耦合运移规律的研究进展

大气污染的加剧,形成大量的酸性雨,在冬季则以酸性雪的形式出现.酸性雪对土壤环境、水环境及生态环境的影响已经引起世界性的关注,而对于积雪、融雪过程中水、热、溶质耦合运移规律的研究是评价和预测这些影响的理论基础.在查阅大量中外相关文献的基础上,对该领域的研究历史、发展现状和尚待解决的问题进行了综述.     

核废料处置库选址过程中自然灾害风险性评价

自然灾害是给人类及其设施带来严重灾难的危害。本文试图在了解灾害的危害性基础上，以火山作用为例，在核废料处置库选址中，通过圈定灾害高发区、确定风险评价参数、划出高风险区及风险等级三步骤，对灾害风险性进行评价。     

Process of Housing Damage Assessment: The 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster Case

Rebuilding of victims' livelihoods was a crucial issue in the restoration process in the1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster. Housing damage assessment influencedmost of the rebuilding of the livelihood in the long term, because the Victim Certificatesissued by the local governments based on the results of the Housing damage assessmentwas required to receive most of the individual assistance measures. In the process ofHousing damage assessment, many complex problems arose, leading to extensivework on the part of the disaster responders. Consequently, a considerable number ofvictims were dissatisfied with the assessment and applied for a resurvey. Due to a floodof requests for resurvey, disaster responders had to work on damage assessment, leavingrelief activities aside.In order to facilitate Housing damage assessment, this paper discusses thefollowing five points: (1) the processes and the problems of assessments performedin the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster, (2) the changes in the nature of informationneeded by the victims, (3) the improvements over the present damage assessment, (4)the housing situation in Japan, and (5) the international situation on damage assessment.It is obvious from the results that a poor damage assessment system and the size ofthe disaster produced a very large work load. Differences in appreciation among theinvestigators also contributed to unfair assessments and led to the victims beingincreasingly dissatisfied by the survey results. Finally, a design concept for acomprehensive damage assessment system, which has been derived from theabove five points, is proposed for post-disaster management.     

Comparative Risk Assessments for the City of Cologne – Storms, Floods, Earthquakes

In this paper a methodology for a multi-risk assessment of an urban area is introduced and performed for the city of Cologne, Germany, considering the natural hazards windstorm, flooding and earthquake. Moreover, sources of the uncertainty in the analysis and future needs for research are identified. For each peril the following analyses were undertaken: hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and estimation of losses. To compare the three hazard types on a consistent basis, a common economic assessment of exposed assets was developed. This was used to calculate direct economic losses to buildings and their contents. The perils were compared by risk curves showing the exceedence probability of the estimated losses. In Cologne, most of the losses that occur frequently are due to floods and windstorms. For lower return periods (10–200 years) the risk is dominated by floods. For return periods of more than 200 years the highest damage is caused by earthquakes.     

岩石受压状态的损伤分析

以损伤力学的方法对岩石在受压状态下的破坏行为进行了分析，损伤力学（CDM）方法近年来在金属、混凝土及复合材料等工程材料的蠕变、断裂等问题的研究中得到大量应用。损伤演变是物质内部结构的不可逆变化过程，损伤变量是与塑性变形一样的内变量，文中据实验数据推导出某类岩石的损伤变量演化曲线，以及损伤与应力的变化关系，以期用损伤学方法研究岩石变形的局部化行为。     

人工神经网络在环境灾害预测中的应用进展

综述了近年来人工神经网络在环境灾害预测中的应用进展,包括对污染型环境灾害、生态环境灾害、地质环境灾害以及气象环境灾害等灾害的成灾因素分析、危险性预测以及灾情预测和动态演变规律预测,揭示了人工神经网络探索灾害隐含信息方面的优越性,并对其在环境灾害预测中的应用前景和发展趋势进行了展望。     

Probabilistic evaluation of observed earthquake damage data in Turkey

Empirical, theoretical or hybrid methods can be used for the vulnerability analysis of structures to evaluate the seismic damage data and to obtain probability damage matrices. The information on observed structural damage after earthquakes has critical importance to drive empirical vulnerability methods. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the damage distributions based on the data observed in Erzincan-1992, Dinar-1995 and Kocaeli-1999 earthquakes in Turkey utilizing two probability models—Modified Binomial Distribution (MBiD) and Modified Beta Distribution (MBeD). Based on these analyses, it was possible (a) to compare the advantages and limitations of the two probability models with respect to their capabilities in modelling the observed damage distributions; (b) to evaluate the damage assessment for reinforced concrete and masonry buildings in Turkey based on these models; (c) to model the damage distribution of different sub-groups such as buildings with different number of storeys or soil conditions according to the both models. The results indicate that (a) MBeD is more suitable than the MBiD to model the observed damage data for both reinforced concrete and masonry buildings in Turkey; (b) the sub-groups with lower number of stories are located in the lower intensity levels, while the sub-groups with higher number of stories depending on local site condition are concentrated in the higher intensity levels, thus site conditions should also be considered in the assessment of the intensity levels; (c) the detailed local models decrease the uncertainties of loss estimation since the damage distribution of sub-groups can be more accurately modelled compared to the general damage distribution models.     

Assessing hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty

Probability-based assessment of hurricane damage costs for coastal communities is vital for policy-makers and insurers. The uncertainties associated with hurricane damage costs include both the inherent uncertainty due to the random nature of hurricane process and the model uncertainty of the mathematical representation of hurricane damage (vulnerability model). The hurricane vulnerability model has traditionally been modeled as a deterministic function of hurricane wind speed in the literature, without considering the effect of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage assessment. This paper develops two methods to assess the hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty. To account for the non-stationarity in hurricane actions due to the potential impact of climate change, the hurricane occurrence process is modeled as a non-stationary Poisson process and the hurricane intensity is assumed to vary in time with time-variant statistical parameters of hurricane wind speed. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, is conducted to illustrate the proposed methods and to investigate the impact of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage costs.     

区域承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系研究

灾害所造成的后果是由致灾环境的危险性和承灾体的脆弱性决定的。承灾体的脆弱性对区域减灾有着极为重要的作用 ,而承灾体脆弱性指标体系的建立则成为区域脆弱性评价的关键。文章确定了承灾体脆弱性评估指标体系的功能及建立原则 ,在前人研究的基础上 ,综合反推法、信息量法等多种方法确定了基于灾前评判的承灾体脆弱性评估指标体系     

An overview of flood actions on buildings

This paper presents an overview of flood characteristics with respect to their applicability for estimating and analysing direct flood damage to buildings. The approach taken is to define “flood actions” as acts which a flood could directly do to a building, potentially causing damage or failure. This definition expands the traditional approach of analysing flood damage to buildings which often focuses on damage from slow-rise flood depth.

Flood actions may be energy transfers, forces, pressures, or the consequences of water or contaminant contact. This paper defines and categorises flood actions on buildings, indicating methods of quantification. The actions are classified in the following categories with respect to relative importance for flood damage assessment.

• High relevance and relatively predictable: Lateral pressure from water depth differential between the inside and outside of a building, lateral pressure from water velocity, and water contact due to slow-rise depth.

• Relevance varies and relatively predictable: Buoyancy.

• Relevance varies and difficult predictability: Capillary rise, erosion, debris, turbulence, waves, other velocity actions, other chemical actions, nuclear actions, and biological actions.

Due to the highly localised effects of some of the flood actions in the third category, coupled with their potentially significant impact, prediction of their impact on overall flood damage may be challenging. Awareness of their existence assists in developing an understanding of the uncertainties in flood damage estimation and analysis and in indicating areas which new research should tackle. In particular, work is needed in order to fully understand the physical processes by which flood damage arises and, hence, how flood damage may be prevented.     

Building damage assessment after the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Riviera del Brenta</Emphasis> tornado,northeast Italy

A tornado with severe intensity hit the municipalities of Pianiga, Dolo and Mira close to Venice, northeast Italy, causing damages on a wide number of residential and industrial buildings and destroying some historical villas. In this study, the authors show the results of the damage assessment survey performed in the first days after the occurrence of the extreme event. Limited literature deals with damage assessment of European building types due to wind actions, and the available one does not consider building vulnerability as key factor in the structural response of existing structures subject to tornado hazard. In this paper, structural damages surveyed in reinforced concrete frame structures and masonry buildings, representative of common Italian building types, are critically discussed. Additionally, this work provides a database of past tornado events in northeast Italy, evidencing how the analyzed area has been found to be quite prone to tornado hazard.     

Assessing flood hazard using flood marks and analytic hierarchy process approach: a case study for the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam,Vietnam

The production of flood hazard assessment maps is an important component of flood risk assessment. This study analyses flood hazard using flood mark data. The chosen case study is the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam, Vietnam. The impacts of this event included 17 deaths, 230 injuries, 91,739 flooded properties, 11,530 ha of submerged and damaged agricultural land, 85,080 animals killed and widespread damage to roads, canals, dykes and embankments. The flood mark data include flood depth and flood duration. Analytic hierarchy process method is used to assess the criteria and sub-criteria of the flood hazard. The weights of criteria and sub-criteria are generated based on the judgements of decision-makers using this method. This assessment is combined into a single map using weighted linear combination, integrated with GIS to produce a flood hazard map. Previous research has usually not considered flood duration in flood hazard assessment maps. This factor has a rather strong influence on the livelihood of local communities in Quang Nam, with most agricultural land within the floodplain. A more comprehensive flood hazard assessment mapping process, with the additional consideration of flood duration, can make a significant contribution to flood risk management activities in Vietnam.     

洪水管理经济评价研究进展

洪水管理经济评价是践行洪水管理治水方略必不可少的环节。从洪水管理经济评价理论、洪灾损失评估以及洪水管理成本效益评估等方面综述了洪水管理经济评价的主要研究进展,分析了目前研究存在的不足,指出现有的防洪经济理论与方法已难以满足洪水管理决策对经济评价的要求。强调建立完善的洪水管理经济评价理论体系,扩展评价内容和范围,深入开展非工程措施效益、生态环境影响和社会公平等评价方法的研究是中国今后洪水管理经济评价研究的重点。     

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Territory of Armenia and Strategy of its Mitigation

The original methods of seismic risk assessment based on the main factors, defining the high level of seismic risk in Armenia, are used in this paper. Based on the analysis carried out, an assessment is made about the fact, that the capital of Armenia, Yerevan, is the most risk exposed area. A strategy for seismic risk reduction, derived from local peculiarities and the level of seismic risk, is presented. Improving the resisting of existing buildings and constructions to seismic damage, based on the grounds of new technologies elaborated by NSSP RA, is emphasised in this strategy.     

岩体损伤力学理论进展

回顾了对损伤及岩体损伤理论的发展历史，并简要介绍了岩体损伤力学的主要内容，任务和研究它的若干假设，详细讨论了什么是损伤的表征，什么样的变量可作为损伤变量及如何用直接的或间接的，力学的或物理学的方法来测量它们，研究表明，岩体的损伤是在初始损伤的基础上累进性发展的，是不可逆的，研究材料的损伤演化时，可引进一些能反映材料内部结构变化的内变量构成损伤演变方程，损伤演变过程的研究也必是今后研究的热门。     

基于滑坡风险评价的水电站坝址比选研究

针对滑坡风险在水电工程进行坝址比选时量化评价的问题,提出了基于滑坡风险评价的坝址比选研究方法,在综合考虑滑坡危险性分析、易损性分析和破坏性评价的基础上,引入滑坡体重要性系数、工程影响系数、距离模数、滑坡体状况系数、工况发生年概率等5个指标参数,综合考虑滑坡体客观情况与人类活动影响因素,建立以年期望值为指标的水电工程滑坡灾害评价体系。用坝址安全风险指标、堵江引起发电量损失指标、河道清淤指标、库内清淤指标、涌浪破坏损失指标、人口易损性指标和自然易损性指标等指标作为标准对坝址选择进行风险综合评价,可有效避免在安全风险指标相似情况下坝址风险确定难的问题。通过对滑坡体造成的破坏损失评价,运用安全与经济性相平衡原则,得出基于风险评价的坝址比选结果。以雅砻江卡拉水电站坝址选择为计算实例,得出同一量纲下的计算分析结果,该结果更直观可靠,为坝址比选提供了依据。