Scatter of <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2 values as an indicator of trends in the thermospheric dynamics

The variability degree of the F ₂-layer height, hmF2, from the 1950s–1960s to the 1990s has been analyzed based on the vertical sounding data for a series of midlatitude ionospheric stations. It has been found that the scatter of the hmF2 values (standard deviation) abruptly increases from the earlier decades to the later ones. This increase is more evident in the spring period of the year and is independent of geomagnetic activity. An increase in the scatter of hmF2 apparently indicates systematic changes (trends) in the thermospheric dynamics, the existence of which was suggested in the recent publications of the authors.     

Relation between changes in foF2 and hmF2 within various time intervals

The relation between the critical frequency foF2 and F2-layer height hmF2 is considered for ten ionospheric stations in the periods before and after 1980. It is shown that in the earlier period the relation between foF2 and hmF2 is well pronounced. In the later period, a distortion of this relation is observed. The statistical characteristics of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 are spoiled. That shows that due to the cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere the height distribution of the photochemical parameters governing the equilibrium concentration in the layer maximum changes. A larger contribution to this effect is evidently provided by changes in the atom-to-molecule concentrations ratio.     

Parameters of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> layer as a source of information on trends in thermospheric dynamics

The problem of determining trends in thermospheric dynamics parameters (horizontal winds) based on analysis of trends in various combinations of ionospheric F ₂-layer parameters is formulated. The previous attempts of the authors in this direction are briefly described. It is shown that all studied parameters lead to the same result: after the “boundary date” (approximately 1980) a systematic change in these parameters (a long-term trend) is observed, this fact manifesting changes in the dynamical regime of the thermosphere because of cooling and contraction of the entire middle and upper atmosphere. The results of a search for trends in the hmF2 height for the moment (T(ss) + 2 h) are described. These trends are found higher than the hmF2 trends obtained earlier by various authors analyzing the hmF2 behavior at fixed moments of local time.     

Behavior of <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2 after sunset

The time behavior of the foF2 and hmF2 values at the time moment T(ss + 2 h) 2 h after sunset is considered. It is assumed that at this moment, the horizontal winds in the thermosphere in the strongest way influence hmF2 and, therefore, foF2. It is found that a fairly well pronounced and statistically significant change (trend) is observed for the foF2(ss + 2)/foF2(14) ratio, the sign of the change being different for different stations and even different seasons at the same station. A similar picture is obtained for the value of hmF2(ss + 2). It is shown that a positive correlation between the trends of these two values is observed. This confirms the initial concept of the paper that the foF2 and hmF2 trends are caused by long-term trends in the thermospheric dynamics.     

Behavior of parameters of the ionospheric F2 layer at the turn of the Centuries: 1. critical frequency

The available massifs of experimental data on the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer, foF2, covering the first decade of the new century, are considered. On the basis of studying these massifs, a conclusion is drawn that the scatter of foF2 values (measured by the standard deviation (SD)) relative to the dependence on solar activity has grown substantially over recent decades as compared to the period 1958–1979. The possible causes of the SD increase are considered. It is shown that the foF2 values for the period 1998–2010 decreased as compared to the period 1958–1979 by an average of 0.6 MHz which gives an estimate of the foF2 trend of ～-0.03 MHz per year. Linear trends in foF2 for some ionospheric stations are analyzed. It is obtained that, in spite of the scatter in the data, it is possible to obtain statistically significant trends for each considered situation (day and postsunset period in summer and winter). At the same time, the winter negative trends (～-0.052 MHz per year) are approximately a factor of 2 higher than the summer ones (～-0.024 MHz per year). Comparisons with the trends obtained for earlier periods show that the negative trend in foF2 increased substantially towards the first decade of our century.     

Long-term changes in the relation between <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2

The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.     

Variations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2 at the end of the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s

This article considers sparse available data on variations in the main parameters of the ionospheric F2 layer foF2(ss + 2) and hmF2(ss + 2) at the end of the 1990s and the beginning of 2000s. It is shown that the monotonous behavior of hmF2(ss + 2) obtained in earlier publications for the period after 1980 is violated. The hmF2(ss + 2) behavior obtains a more complicated nature by time with a tendency towards a decrease in hmF2(ss + 2) at the beginning of a new century. A statistically significant relationship between foF2(ss + 2) and hmF2(ss + 2) is discovered confirming the Rishbeth statement that during the first hours after sunset, the critical frequency foF2 is governed by dynamical processes via changes in the F2-layer height. It is found that at the end of the interval in question, there is a tendency towards deviations from the above-mentioned dependence. The latter could be a manifestation of the fact that changes in the aeronomical parameters caused by the general cooling and contraction of the thermosphere begin influencing the foF2 value. It is found that in the summer months, the foF2(ss + 2) value demonstrated a systematic decline tendency from the “boundary date” towards the beginning of the 2000s.     

The ionosphere of Europe and North America before the magnetic storm of October 28, 2003

The X17 solar flare occurred on October 28, 2003, and was followed by the X10 flare on October 29. These flares caused very strong geomagnetic storms (Halloween storms). The aim of the present study is to compare the variations in two main ionospheric parameters (foF2 and hmF2) at two chains of ionosondes located in Europe and North America for the period October 23–28, 2003. This interval began immediately before the storm of October 28 and includes its commencement. Another task of the work is to detect ionospheric precursors of the storm or substorm expansion phase. An analysis is based on SPIDR data. The main results are as follows. The positive peak of δfoF2 (where δ is the difference between disturbed and quiet values) is observed several hours before the magnetic storm or substorm commencement. This peak can serve as a disturbance precursor. The amplitude of δfoF2 values varies from 20 to 100% of the foF2 values. The elements of similarity in the variations in the δfoF2 values at two chains are as follows: (a) the above δfoF2 peak is as a rule observed simultaneously at two chains before the disturbance; (b) the δfoF2 variations are similar at all midlatitude (or, correspondingly, high-latitude) ionosondes of the chain. The differences in the δfoF2 values are as follows: (a) the effect of the main phase and the phase of strong storm recovery at one chain differs from such an effect at another chain; (b) the manifestation of disturbances at high-latitude stations of the chain differ from the manifestations at midlatitude stations. The δhmF2 variations are approximately opposite to the δfoF2 variations, and the δhmF2 values lie in the interval 15–25% of the hmF2 values. The performed study is useful and significant in studying the problems of the space weather, especially in a short-term prediction of ionospheric disturbances caused by magnetospheric storms or substorms.     

Trends in the F2 ionospheric layer due to long-term variations in the Earth's magnetic field

The Earth's magnetic field presents long-term variations with changes in strength and orientation. Particularly, changes in the dip angle (I) and, consequently, in the sin(I)cos(I) factor, affect the thermospheric neutral winds that move the conducting plasma of the ionosphere. In this way, a lowering or lifting of the F2-peak (hmF2) is induced together with changes in foF2, depending on season, time and location. A simple theoretical approximation, developed in a previous work, is extended to a worldwide latitude–longitude grid to assess hmF2 and foF2 trends due to Earth's magnetic field secular variations. Compared to the greenhouse gases effects over the ionosphere, the Earth's magnetic field may be able to produce stronger trends which vary with season, time and location. However, to elucidate the origin of F2-region trends, long-term variations in the three possible known mechanisms should be considered altogether—greenhouse gases, geomagnetic activity and Earth's magnetic field.     

Pearl diffuse structures on ionograms of Intercosmos-19 associated with irregularities of the low-latitude ionosphere

Unusual complex ionograms obtained by the Intercosmos-19 satellite are considered, in which four diffuse clouds with a characteristic shape are strung like pearls on the main path of the reflected signal. Ray tracing has been used to show that they are associated with 26 layers of irregularities located at altitudes from hmFs2 up to ~900 km. The sizes of the irregularities range from a few kilometers to 100 kilometers, and the intensity of δNe reaches 100%. The heights of irregular layers increase towards the equator, together with a rise of the F2 layer, and are not associated with magnetic field lines. Complex ionograms have been observed on the outer slope and at the top of the crest of the equatorial anomaly. They are probably caused by the processes occurring in the equatorial ionosphere.     

Influence of the plasma zonal E × B drift on the electron concentration in the low-latitude ionospheric F region at the minimum of solar activity near the spring equinox

The three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of the concentrations and temperatures of electrons and ions in the ionospheric F region and plasmasphere at low and middle latitudes is used to study variations in the concentration NmF2 and height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer under the action of the plasma zonal drift in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east perpendicularly to the electric E and geomagnetic B fields. The calculated and measured values of NmF2 and hmF2 for 16 ionospheric sounding stations during the quiet geomagnetic period on March 28–29, 1964 at low solar activity are compared. This comparison made it possible to correct the input parameters of the model: [O] from the NRLMSISE-00 model and the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity from the HWW90 model. It is shown that the nighttime NmF2 values decrease up to twice at low solar activity in the low-latitude ionosphere, and the hmF2 values change by up to 16 km, if the plasma zonal E×B drift is not taken into account. Under the daytime conditions, the influence of the plasma zonal E×B drift on NmF2 can be neglected.     

Anomalous variations in the structure of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> region at geomagnetic midlatitudes of the Southern and Northern hemispheres in going from summer to winter conditions at high solar activity

The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at high solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions of June 2–3, 1979, and January 5–6, 1980, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The plasma drift velocity, determined by comparing the calculated and measured heights of the F ₂ layer maximum (hmF2), and the correction of [N₂] and [O₂], found in the NRLMSISE-00 model, make it possible to coordinate the electron densities (NmF2) calculated at the hmF2 height and the measured anomalous variations in NmF2 over the Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that, if the interference of the diffusion velocities of O⁺(⁴S) and H⁺ ions is taken into account, the additional heating of plasmaspheric electrons leads to an increase in the flux of O⁺(⁴S) ions from the topside ionosphere to lower F ₂ layer altitudes, as a result of which an anomalous nighttime increase in NmF2 6, observed on January 6, 1980, over Millstone Hill station, is mainly produced. The second component of the formation of anomalous night-time NmF2 is the plasma drift along the magnetic field caused by the neutral wind, which shifts O⁺(⁴S) ions to higher altitudes where the recombination rate of O⁺(⁴S) with N₂ and O₂ is lower and slows down a decrease in NmF2 in the course of time. It has been shown that the influence of electronically excited O⁺ ions and vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ molecules on electron density (N _e ) considerably differs under winter and summer conditions. This difference forms significant part of the winter anomaly in N _e at heights of the F ₂ region and topside ionosphere over Millstone Hill station.     

Long-term changes in the Delta <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 parameter based on the data of two European ionospheric stations

Analysis of changes in the critical frequency foF2 in recent decades has been performed by determination of “Delta foF2” parameter. These values determine the mean change of foF2 values from the “etalon period” (1958–1980) to later periods. The results are compared with the determination of foF2 trends, which was performed in a series of previous publications of the authors. The data of two most reliable ionospheric stations of the European region, Slough and Juliusruh, are analyzed. The results confirm all principal conclusions obtained earlier, which were based on analysis of the trends. A systematic decrease of foF2 with time occurs (which corresponds to a negative trend), and the character of changes in the Delta values with season and local time on the whole agrees with the character of changes in the trend. It is shown that the results based on the data of both considered stations show good agreement.     

Variability of parameters of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer maximum in the quiet midlatitude ionosphere under low solar activity: 1. Statistical properties

Results of statistical analysis of the properties of variability of F2-layer maximum parameters (critical frequency foF2 and the height hmF2) in quiet midlatitude ionosphere under low solar activity in the daytime (1000–1500 LT) and nighttime (2200–0300 LT) hours are presented on the basis of Irkutsk station data for 2007–2008. It is found that the distribution density of δfoF2 could be presented as consisting of two distinctly different normal laws of this distribution, one of which corresponds to weak (|δfoF2| < 10%) fluctuations in foF2 and the other corresponds to strong (30% > |δfoF2| > 10%) fluctuations. Weak fluctuations in foF2 to a substantial degree are related to ionospheric variability at times less of than 1–3 h and determine the δfoF2 variability in the daytime hours. Strong fluctuations in foF2 are mainly related to day-to-day variability of the ionosphere at a fixed local time, the variability increasing by approximately a factor of 3 during the transition from day to night and determining the δfoF2 variability in the nighttime hours. The distribution density of ΔhmF2 is close to the normal distribution law. An interpretation of the different character of the distribution densities of δfoF2 and ΔhmF2 is given.     

Critical frequencies <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 as an indicator of trends in thermospheric dynamics

The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.     

Spectrum of quasi-wave disturbances in the topside daytime ionosphere according to the data of radiosounding onboard the Intercosmos-19 satellite

Quasi-wave disturbances in the topside daytime ionosphere, related to auroral activity, have been detected using the data of radiosounding onboard the Intercosmos-19 satellite on April 28, 1979. A disturbance was caused by an abrupt enhancement of the eastward electrojet, which was not reflected in the variations in the AE and AU indices. According to the estimates, the period of electron density disturbances was about 0.5 h, the velocity was 350 m/s, and the length along the meridian was several hundreds of kilometers, which corresponds to medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). The disturbance amplitude was only 30 km in the hmF2 variations and 0.20–0.25 MHz in the foF2 variations but increased to 0.25–0.30 MHz in the plasma frequency variations at satellite altitudes of 520–580 km with increasing altitude. It is impossible to register so weak short-period variations during ground-based sounding. The method for detecting disturbance spatial characteristics has been proposed. The disturbance spectrum including three quasiperiodic structures has been revealed using this method. The optimal estimates have been made for the trend, described by the polynomial of the third degree, and for the expansion of the residuals in terms of three harmonics.     

Effect of zonal E × B plasma drift on electron density in the low-latitude ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region at a solar activity maximum near vernal equinox

The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N _e and N _i ) and temperatures (T _e and T _i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N _e , N _i , T _e , and T _i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.     

Anomalous variations in the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript>-layer structure at geomagnetic midlatitudes of the Southern and Northern hemispheres at the transition from summer to winter conditions under low solar activity

The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at low solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions on January 15–17, 1985, and July 10–13, 1986, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The detected correction of the model input parameters makes it possible to coordinate the measured and calculated anomalous variations in the electron density NmF2 at the height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer over Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured values of NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ molecules almost do not influence the formation of the winter anomaly under the conditions of low solar activity. A difference between the influence of electronically excited O⁺ on N _e ions under winter and summer conditions forms not more than 11% of the N _e winter anomaly event in the F ₂ layer and topside ionosphere. The model without electronically excited O⁺ ions reduces the duration of the N _e winter anomaly event. It has been shown that the seasonal variations in the composition of the neutral atmosphere form mainly the NmF2 winter anomaly event over the Millstone Hill radar at low solar activity.     

Variations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 at the end of the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s according to the SPIDR system data

Variations in the critical frequency of the F2 layer at 22 ionospheric stations within the period 1990–2010 according to the SPIDR system data are considered. A confirmation of the negative trends in foF2 for seven stations considered by one of the authors earlier on the basis of median data is obtained. It is found that both negative (a decrease in foF2 with time) and positive (growth in foF2 with time) trends of the critical frequency are observed. During the later part of the considered period (after 1997), negative trends dominate. This fact manifests itself, apparently, in an increase in the role of the decrease in the thermospheric neutral temperature in the formation of foF2 trends.     

Comparative analysis of disturbances in the midlatitude ionospheric F 2 layer during strong and extreme magnetic storms in March 2001 according to the data from magnetically conjugate ground ionospheric stations

Ionospheric disturbances at heights of the F ₂ layer maximum during the strong magnetic storm (the minimum value of the Dst index was ?149 nT) and the magnetic superstorm (the minimum value of the Dst index was ?387 nT) have been compared based on the data from two pairs of magnetically conjugate midlatitude ground stations for ionospheric vertical sounding. The storms began on March 19, 2001, and March 31, 2001, respectively. It has been obtained that almost only negative ionospheric disturbances were observed in the Northern and Southern hemispheres in both cases. The maximum effect in changes in the layer critical frequency (foF2) in both hemispheres has a time delay relative to the moment of the maximum disturbance in the Dst index on the order of 3–4 h for the strong storm and about 1 h for the superstorm. The disturbed variations in the foF2 critical frequency in different hemispheres correlate well with each other in the plane of one magnetic meridian, but the correlation substantially weakens at different magnetic longitudes. An assumption is made that the revealed features of the behavior of the disturbed midlatitude ionospheric F ₂ layer are caused by the complex character of the thermospheric response to the energy release in the auroral zone during the considered magnetic storms.