山东人工引发雷电综合观测实验及回击电流特征

山东人工引发雷电实验 （SHATLE) 自2005年开始, 六年来共成功引发负极性雷电22次, 包含大电流回击过程88次, 实验获取了包括雷电放电通道底部电流、近距离电磁场、 高速摄像等在内的高质量同步观测资料。对36次实测回击电流的统计分析表明, 回击峰值电流的几何平均值为12.1 kA, 最大值为41.6 kA, 最小值为4.4 kA。回击电流波形的半峰值宽度范围在1～68 μs之间, 电流10%～90%峰值的上升时间几何平均值为1.9 μs, 中和电荷量为0.86 C, 作用积分（action integral, 或称比能量) 为2.6 ×103A2?s。人工触发闪电峰值电流约16.5 kA的回击在30 m处产生的电场变化可达56.0 kV/m, 60 m处的磁场几何平均值为52 μT。一些强烈的M分量可以具有与回击相当的电流峰值和中和电荷量。人工引雷初始阶段上行正先导的发展速度约为0.96×105 m/s。     

人工触发闪电M分量的电流与电磁场特征

利用2008—2010年在广州从化人工触发闪电试验中观测到的闪电通道底部电流、近距离电场以及近距离磁场数据资料,对人工触发闪电M过程的电流和电磁场特征及相关性进行了分析。统计分析结果显示:M分量电场波形持续时间和10%~90%上升时间几何平均值分别为0.49 ms和0.12 ms;电流波形持续时间、10%~90%上升时间和电流变化的几何平均值分别为0.53 ms, 0.11 ms和0.34 kA;磁场波形持续时间、10%~90%上升时间和磁场变化的几何平均值分别为0.65 ms, 0.16 ms和2.76×10-5T。此外,M分量的电流、电场及磁场波形间存在一定的相互关系。相关分析结果表明:M分量的电磁场与电流资料在峰值幅度上具有较显著相关性,几何形状也较为一致,利用电磁场资料反演M分量的电流波形具有可行性。     

人工触发闪电电流及磁场变化特征对比

对2006年山东人工触发闪电实验中获取的一次传统触发闪电的电流及60 m处的磁感应强度变化波形对比分析的结果表明,Rogowski线圈和磁场测量系统记录到的波形很类似.这次闪电共包含两次回击,回击的时间间隔约为34 ms.两次回击的电流幅值很大,分别为41.6 kA和29.6 kA,在60 m处产生的磁感应强度变化分别为133μT和97μT,通过磁感应强度反演得到两次回击的电流分别为39.8 kA和29.1 kA,与Rogowski线圈的实测结果基本一致.另外,回击之前放电过程中仅出现了两个脉冲,利用所测磁感应强度反演得到两个脉冲对应的电流分别为2.11 kA和2.7 kA,与Rogowski线圈的实测结果2.1 kA和2.8 kA基本一致.     

广东野外雷电综合观测试验十年进展

雷电野外科学试验是认识雷电发生、发展物理过程及其致灾机理的重要途径,也是开展真实雷电电磁环境下雷电防护技术测试的重要方式。自2006年开始,中国气象科学研究院和广东省气象局在广州野外雷电试验基地,持续合作开展了雷电野外综合观测试验,在人工触发闪电和自然闪电物理过程及其雷电防护技术测试试验等方面取得了若干研究结果。十年期间共成功触发闪电94次,回击电流峰值最大值为42 kA,平均值为16 kA;分析给出了自然闪电预击穿过程电场变化脉冲特征类型和差异;观测发现高建筑物上行连接先导可达几百米甚至超过1 km,其发展速度可达106 m/s量级,下行先导与上行连接先导的连接呈多样性;雷电防护技术测试试验表明人工触发闪电近距离电磁场耦合在架空线路上的感应电压达到千伏量级,多回击、长连续电流和地电位抬升是造成浪涌保护器(SPD)损害的主要因素;闪电定位系统探测性能的评估结果显示粤港澳闪电定位系统的闪电和回击的探测效率分别为96%和89%,定位误差算术平均值为532 m,回击电流强度的估算值约为真实值的0.63倍。     

2006—2011年广州人工触发闪电

2006—2011年夏季在广州野外雷电试验基地开展了广东综合闪电观测试验 (GCOELD)。试验期间,针对人工触发闪电进行了近距离声、光、电、磁特征等综合测量,对自动气象站电源线和信号线上产生的感应电压特征进行了观测和分析,并对广东省地闪定位网的探测效率和定位精度与人工触发闪电进行了比对和校验。试验结果表明:人工触发闪电回击峰值电流范围为-31.93~-6.67 kA,回击电流波形的半峰宽度的范围为6.18~74.19 μs,10%—90%的上升时间范围为0.24~2.25 μs。触发闪电的上行正先导的发展速度在104~105 m/s量级;人工触发闪电的回击过程在架空电源线路 (1200 m长,2 m高) 上产生的感应过电压可达十几千伏;广东电网闪电定位系统对人工触发闪电事件的探测效率为95%,平均定位误差为759 m,闪电定位系统反演得到的电流峰值与实际测量的电流峰值平均相对偏差为16.3%。     

一次正地闪触发两个并发上行闪电的光电观测

广州高建筑物雷电观测站光电同步观测系统于2017年6月16日记录到一次峰值电流达+141 kA的单回击正地闪触发两个并发上行闪电过程。利用高速摄像、普通摄像和电场变化数据分析了触发型上行闪电的始发特征和机理。结果表明:正地闪回击后约0.8 ms内,在距正地闪接地点约3.9 km的广州塔（高600 m）和4.1 km的东塔（高530 m）分别有上行闪电始发。正地闪回击过程中和大量正电荷以及之后可能有云内负先导朝高塔方向快速伸展造成塔顶局部区域的电场发生突变是两个上行闪电激发的原因。两个上行闪电在353 ms内发生7次回击,其中6次在广州塔上,仅1次在东塔上,且广州塔回击峰值电流平均值（-21.4 kA）约为东塔回击峰值电流（-7.3 kA）的3倍,表明广州塔上行闪电通道可能比东塔上行闪电通道伸展至分布范围更广、电荷量（或电荷密度）更大的负电荷区。两个上行闪电先导的二维速率变化范围为9.4×104~1.8×106 m·s-1,平均值为6.9×105 m·s-1。     

人工触发闪电连续电流过程与M分量特征

在广州野外雷电试验基地,对2008年和2011年夏季人工触发闪电回击之后的14个连续电流过程和43个M分量的通道底部电流、电场变化和通道亮度进行了同步测量和分析。结果表明:M分量的电流、快慢电场变化和亮度变化波形均近似对称;触发闪电连续电流过程的持续时间、转移电荷量、电流平均值的几何平均值分别为22 ms,6.0 C和273 A;M分量的幅度、转移电荷量、半峰值宽度、上升时间、持续时间的几何平均值分别为409 A,205 mC,520 μs,305 μs和1.6 ms;连续电流持续时间与M分量的个数、相邻M分量之间的时间间隔均存在显著的正相关关系。     

正环境电场中闪电先导的始发和传播

为了研究中国内陆高原雷暴正极性闪电放电的特点,中日两国科学家于１９９７年７～８月在甘肃省平凉市联合进行了人工触发闪电野外实验。利用设在离触发点约３．５ｋｍ处的高速数字化摄像系统结合在闪道底部的电流测量记录,对在正环境电场中触发的两次闪电的初始先导的发生和发展特点进行了研究。资料分析表明,这两次触发闪电都是由火箭顶部始发的上行负先导传输入云而形成短暂的连续电流放电过程,整个放电持续时间分别只有１７和２６ｍｓ。先导在垂直方向的传输速度随时间而增加,平均值约为３．５×１０５ｍ／ｓ。正环境电场中的先导在向云底传输过程中可能产生多个分枝,但它们一般只存在几毫秒时间就消亡了,只有少数分枝能够发展入云。主通道的亮度综合反映了各分枝亮度的变化,而它本身又与在闪道底部测量记录到的闪电放电电流变化存在很好的对应关系。     

人工触发闪电放电过程分析：I.先导放电过程

利用人工触发闪电电场,电流和闪电通道亮度高速摄像观测资料,分析了第一次回击前衔导过程的放电特性,结果指出,对于空中触发,先导传输具有“双向”特征,由于下行先导发展,先导通道电流分布具有不均匀性,连接导线汽化都发生在上行先导阶段。人工闪电第一次回击虽然与自然闪电继后回击特性十分相似,但两者放电特征仍有差别,前者具有曾长的连续电流过程。     

空中人工引雷先导特征的统计分析

根据1998年8月22日在广州从化5次空中引发雷电远近两个观测点得到的地面电场变化资料，对主放电之前的先导传输特征进行了统计分析。结果表明：双向先导系统稳定传输阶段。近区电场为较慢的正极性电场变化土叠加负极性振荡脉冲，远区的辐射场开始为双极性脉冲，逐渐过渡到单极性脉冲，而且双极性脉冲的初始极性与单极性脉冲极性以及小回击极性相同都为正，双极性脉冲幅度逐渐减小，且初始半周期较光滑，未观测到更高频小脉冲的叠加现象。双极性脉冲整个宽度为3.8μs，方差为0.33μs；峰与峰间隔为15μs，方差为2.4μs。单极性脉冲具有上升快而大的初始峰值，慢而小的负反冲特性，且初始上升部分较光滑，未观测到高频小脉冲，其上升时间为0.23μs，方差为0.05μs；半峰值宽度为0.37μs。方差为0.1μs；脉冲间隔为12μs。方差为3.4μs。单极性脉冲峰值逐渐增大，就5次触发闪电而言，最大先导脉冲幅度与小回击之比为0.24，范围在0.2-0.3之间，小回击后，远区的单极性脉冲幅度，小，上升慢而下降快，无明显负反冲，平均间隔为20.1μs。方差为6.1μs。通过比较发现，人工触发闪电先导特征与自然闪电先导特征有很好的一致性。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.