极震区烈度的ELM预测模型

为了建立地震后极震区烈度快速预测方法,收集了2013年以前多次5级以上地震案例,以震级、震源深度作为输入参数,以极震区烈度作为输出参数,建立了ELM预测模型并分析震级和震源深度的信息熵和权重,该模型与现有广义线型模型预测精度提高约20％,主要结论如下:震级和震源深度与极震区烈度分别呈正相关和负相关性关系;震级的信息熵比...     

基于Elman神经网络算法的地震经济损失快速评估研究

地震经济损失快速评估是应急救灾的重要决策依据。本文选取了震级、极震区烈度、极震区烈度和抗震设防烈度之差ΔI、人口密度、人均GDP等5个指标作为输入层节点,将地震灾害的直接经济损失作为输出层节点,通过对1996—2013年的地震灾害损失资料进行训练和仿真分析,构建了Elman神经网络地震经济损失快速估计模型。运用该模型,对近年来的7个破坏性地震的直接经济损失进行评估分析,评估结果和实际直接经济损失有较好的一致性,该方法为地震经济损失快速评估提供了一种新思路。     

基于震源深度的极震区烈度评估模型

震后极震区烈度的准确快速评估是地震应急决策与救援的基础性工作。文中首先收集整理了1966—2013年的215条震级5.0的历史震例,基于输入参数可在震后快速获得的原则,通过分析极震区烈度与不同地震参数的相关性关系,通过拟合方法构建了1种面向地震应急的,以中国地震局正式发布的地震震级、震源深度为输入参数的极震区烈度快速评估模型。然后从统计的角度分析了该模型拟合的有效性,同时对2个输入参数进行了敏感性分析,表明该方法可在震后快速有效地估算极震区烈度。目前该模型在实际地震应急中已得到了初步应用,并取得了良好的效果。     

基于主成分分析与BP神经网络相融合的云南砖木结构房屋地震破坏评估方法

针对如何选取合适的影响因素进行砖木结构房屋地震破坏合理评估的问题,提出了一种基于主成分分析与BP神经网络相融合的云南砖木结构房屋地震破坏评估方法,通过灰色关联度模型剔除对砖木结构房屋发生地震破坏影响较小的因素得到关键因子,采用主成分分析法从关键因子中提取主要成分,最后利用BP神经网络模型对处理后的主要成分进行训练,建立砖木结构房屋地震破坏比例预测模型,并利用实际震例进行验证。结果表明：本文方法相较于传统脆弱性曲线拟合方法和BP神经网络模型,其预测的砖木结构房屋地震破坏比例的预测精度更高、普适性更好。     

场地条件对溧阳地震宏观烈度的影响

本文比较了溧阳原地重复的两次中强地震烈度分布和衰减特征,并将震区划分为四种不同类型的地基土。对两次地震极震区与整个破坏区烈度线在轴向上不协调原因加以讨论,认为以淤泥质亚粘土为主的Ⅳ类地基土在震中区东部大面积分布是其主要原因。重新勾绘了极震区的烈度线,以排除场地条件对烈度分布的不均匀影响。经“归一法”处理,显示出烈度分布较严格地受发震断层控制,极震区的烈度形态与整个等烈度线形态趋于一致     

2013年芦山MS7.0地震震源参数特征 及近断层强地面运动初步估计

2013年4月20日在我国四川省雅安市芦山县发生了M_S7.0地震, 破坏最严重的宝兴、 芦山等极震区烈度达到Ⅷ—Ⅸ度. 该文针对芦山M_S7.0地震震源参数的特征, 结合相关经验关系, 对本次地震的震源特征进行了初步分析. 结果表明, 芦山M_S7.0地震为断层动态摩擦过程中的应力下调模式. 进一步应用Brune圆盘模型对芦山M_S7.0地震近场强地面运动的理论值进行估算, 并基于加速度和速度的估算结果计算极震区的最大烈度, 约为Ⅷ—X度, 与实测的极震区最大烈度Ⅸ度较为接近. 选取宝兴和芦山为特征计算点, 构建动态复合震源模型, 对近断层区域内宝兴和芦山两个特征点进行了模拟计算. 模拟结果显示, 近断层区域强地面运动呈现持续时间短、 高频成分多等特征.      

2019年6月17日四川长宁MS 6.0地震灾害损失快速评估精准性分析

地震发生时刻、震级、极震区烈度评估、烈度衰减关系模型、人员伤亡评估模型、房屋震害矩阵等是影响地震灾害损失计算的主要因素,各因素存在不确定性,导致评估结果与实际结果存在一定差距。文中对2019年6月19日四川长宁6.0级地震灾害损失快速评估精准性进行分析,探讨极震区烈度评估、地震影响场、烈度衰减关系模型、人员伤亡评估模型、房屋震害矩阵对评估结果的影响及与真实结果存在的偏差,结果表明,提高地震影响场评估、人口、房屋建筑等数据空间分布精准性,是提高地震灾害损失快速评估系统精准性的基础和前提。     

2013年巴基斯坦Mw7.7地震震源参数特征及烈度分布估计

2013年9月24日巴基斯坦中南部发生Mw7.7地震,震中位于巴基斯坦阿瓦兰县北部69 km处,发震断层为走滑断层机制,极震区烈度达到Ⅸ度以上.我们计算了巴基斯坦地震的视应力、应力降等震源参数,明确该地震为断层动态摩擦过程中的应力上调模式;进一步选取发震断层面上滑动位移的反演结果,构建有限断层模型,对近断层区域的强地面运动进行估算,并基于强地面运动模拟结果给出震区的烈度分布图.结果显示,模拟的巴基斯坦地震烈度图极震区烈度达到Ⅸ度,Ⅶ度烈度影响范围与美国地质调查局震后给出的震动图(ShakeMap)较为一致.强烈地震发生后,基于强地面运动模拟计算给出的烈度分布情况具备较好的合理性,对震区给出及时的震情判定和开展相应的救灾工作具有较高的实际价值.     

2018年河北永清MS 4.3地震震害特征

阐述河北永清M_S 4.3地震构造背景和地震活动特征,依据仪器烈度,通过对地震现场调查点评定烈度,根据极震区震感现象和分布范围,确定极震区影响烈度为Ⅴ度,并圈定地震烈度图分布范围,分析此次地震震害特征。     

强余震的灾害评估

极震区的烈度分布是由主震和大余震产生的。最重的地震灾区为余震区，其范围可由震级与地震区烈度的统计关系求得。在震级与震中烈度关系中，初期余震的烈度略高于主震，晚期强余震的烈度比主震的低。不同烈度对建筑物的损害程度可通过烈度与损失率曲线进行评估。强余震和后续强震的人口伤亡比主震轻。     

Variations of the geomagnetic field and the geomagnetic effects of three earthquakes ( M s>5.0) in Jiangsu Province, China

Since 1979 the repeated observations and experiments of geomagnetic total intensity and vertical component have been carried out for ten years in the geomagetic network which is located in Jiangsu Province, China. Three earthquakes aboveM _s 5.0 occurred during the decade, and some seismomagnetic effects were observed. The observation results show that the anomalies of the vertical geomagnetic component can’t be observed untill some months before the earthquake (M _s>5.0) in this area. In this paper it is suggested that a densely distributed network for continuous observation of geomagnetic vertical component may catch seismomagnetic anomalies and thus improve earthquake prediction in the light of the geomagnetic measurements of the mid — or — low latitude locations. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 80–87, 1991. This study is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Modeling and Prediction of Monthly Total Ozone Concentrations by Use of an Artificial Neural Network Based on Principal Component Analysis

In the work discussed in this paper we considered total ozone time series over Kolkata (22°34′10.92″N, 88°22′10.92″E), an urban area in eastern India. Using cloud cover, average temperature, and rainfall as the predictors, we developed an artificial neural network, in the form of a multilayer perceptron with sigmoid non-linearity, for prediction of monthly total ozone concentrations from values of the predictors in previous months. We also estimated total ozone from values of the predictors in the same month. Before development of the neural network model we removed multicollinearity by means of principal component analysis. On the basis of the variables extracted by principal component analysis, we developed three artificial neural network models. By rigorous statistical assessment it was found that cloud cover and rainfall can act as good predictors for monthly total ozone when they are considered as the set of input variables for the neural network model constructed in the form of a multilayer perceptron. In general, the artificial neural network has good potential for predicting and estimating monthly total ozone on the basis of the meteorological predictors. It was further observed that during pre-monsoon and winter seasons, the proposed models perform better than during and after the monsoon.     

2020年7月12日唐山MS5.1地震预警处理能力分析

2020年7月12日,河北唐山发生M_S5.1地震,河北省地震预警系统成功地处理并产出了这次地震预警各种结果数据,本文借助此次地震对河北地震预警网内震中距200km范围内台站产出质量以及地震预警前5次处理结果进行详细分析。此次地震发生在河北地震预警网内,平均台间距为10km,首台触发后3s、震后6s发布首次处理结果,与编目结果相比,震级偏差为-1.3,震中位置偏差为2.6km,盲区半径为18km。随着参与定位台站数量增多,震级与位置偏差越来越小,但震级仍整体偏小。河北地震预警网台站产出质量整体较高,其中烈度台作为地震预警最重要的组成部分,是决定预警效果的关键因素。本次地震震中距200km范围内,烈度台平均信噪比为48,震中距50km范围内平均信噪比为112,符合预警系统对信噪比的要求。本次地震预警结果表明,河北地震预警网内台站布局基本合理,波形质量较高,地震预警系统处理软件在本次地震中预警产出效果较好,已经具备了一定的地震预警能力。     

Variations of the geomagnetic field and the geomagnetic effects of three earthquakes (M s>5.0) in Jiangsu Province,China

Since 1979 the repeated observations and experiments of geomagnetic total intensity and vertical component have been carried out for ten years in the geomagetic network which is located in Jiangsu Province, China. Three earthquakes aboveM _s 5.0 occurred during the decade, and some seismomagnetic effects were observed. The observation results show that the anomalies of the vertical geomagnetic component can’t be observed untill some months before the earthquake (M _s>5.0) in this area. In this paper it is suggested that a densely distributed network for continuous observation of geomagnetic vertical component may catch seismomagnetic anomalies and thus improve earthquake prediction in the light of the geomagnetic measurements of the mid — or — low latitude locations.     

2021年青海玛多MS7.4地震前地下流体异常特征分析

地震地下流体在地震预测研究与震情跟踪方面发挥着重要作用,本文对2021年5月22日青海玛多MS7.4地震前震中附近地下流体观测资料及异常特征进行系统分析,并结合震前预测过程进行了回顾性总结。结果表明,玛多MS7.4地震震中距500km范围内存在5项异常,其中4项为短期异常,主要出现在震前2～3个月。异常在空间上分布不均匀,主要位于玛多MS7.4地震震中的东北部和西南部,整体呈现出由外围向震中收缩的迁移特征,且玛多MS7.4地震和2010年青海玉树MS7.1地震在异常特征和应力加载作用方面具有较好的相似性。研究结果为地震监测能力较低地区积累了震例资料,对于提升强震地下流体前兆异常认识及未来震情趋势判定水平具有一定的参考意义。     

A Review of the Calculation Formula for the Four-component Borehole Strainmeter and Application to Earthquake Cases

Based on the principle formula for the four-component strainmeters, we can directly obtain the specific plane strain, shear strain and azimuthal angle of the principal strain, and the maximum and minimum principal strains calculated afterwards are the indirect result. The problems of practicality of the sensitivity coefficients A and B of plane strain and shear strain are then discussed. Based on this idea, we analyzed the observation data of several four-component borehole strainmeters near the epicenter of the Yiliang M_S5.7 earthquake in 2012 and the Ludian M_S6.5 earthquake in 2014 in the Zhaotong area, Yunnan Province. The results show that the analysis based on the perspective of plane strain and shear strain has an obviously better effect than that based on the component readings, and can directly peel off the respective abnormality of the plane strain and shear strain. In addition, the correlation coefficient curves between measured data of two plane strains show significant anomalies which often occur several days before and during the earthquake.     

青海门源MS6.9地震前后甘青地区应力变化特征研究

选取甘—青地区地球物理台网钻孔应变2021年1月至2022年1月数据计算其面应变相关系数、主应变、主方位角并进行投影,以面应变相关系数和数据精度进行质量控制,以主应变、主方位角及其地图投影分析甘—青区域钻孔应变的空间分布特征和时间变化特征。分析发现2021年主应变、主方位角及其地图投影变化能清晰地映证该区域构造运动,2022年1月8日门源6.9级地震时钻孔应变主方位角、最大主应变投影同震变化与此次地震地表同震位移场、应变场变化一致。上述发现为研究区域地质构造变化,对该地区地震危险性跟踪及短临跟踪提供参考。     

基于GPS的精河M_S6.6地震前地壳变形动态特征研究

利用2013~2017年3期GPS观测资料,获得精河6.6级地震前震中附近区域水平运动速率、主应变率、面膨胀率及最大剪应变率,并结合区域构造背景分析该区域变形动态特征。结果表明:震前震中附近区域速度场速率逐渐增大,发震断裂两盘构造运动速率不均,震中附近区域GPS测点的速率和运动方向存在差异,反应了地壳应变能量积累。震中区域主压应变率变化反映出应力调整过程,沿断层走向的张压转换的形变高梯度带、最大剪应变梯度带可为地震预测提供参考。     

Evaluation of combination rules for peak response calculation in three‐component seismic analysis

The responses, r_e, given by several multicomponent combination rules used in seismic codes for determining peak responses to three ground motion components are evaluated for elastic systems and compared with the critical response r_cr; this is defined as the largest response for all possible incident angles of the seismic components and obtained by means of the CQC3‐rule when a principal seismic component is vertical, or the GCQC3‐rule when it departs from the vertical direction. The combination rules examined are the SRSS‐, 30%‐, 40%‐ and IBC‐rules, considering different alternatives for the design horizontal spectrum. Assuming that a principal seismic component is along the vertical direction, the upper and lower bounds of the ratio r_e/r_cr for each combination rule are determined as a function of the spectral intensity ratio of the horizontal seismic components and of the responses to one seismic component acting alternately along each structural axis. Underestimations and overestimations of the critical response are identified for each combination rule and each design spectrum. When a component departs from the vertical direction, the envelopes of the bounds of the ratio r_e/r_cr for each combination rule are calculated, considering all possible values of the spectral intensity ratios. It is shown that the inclination of a principal component with respect to the vertical axis can significantly reduce the values of r_e/r_cr with respect to the case when the component is vertical. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.