利用Sato模型研究邢台震区尾波Q_C值特征

利用Sato单次散射模型和红山台的近场数字地震记录研究了邢台震区尾波QC值的变化特征,得到QC值随频率的变化关系:即窗长为15~30 s时QC=(42.9±20.7)f(0.98±0.13);窗长为40~60 s时QC=(103.1±27.9)f(0.85±0.08)。通过分析不同频率点随时间的变化曲线,发现2002年4月22日邢台隆尧5.0级地震前高频部分QC值出现"升高—降低—再升高—发震"的发震模式,对预测邢台地区的中强震的发生有一定的参考意义。还发现相对Aki模型而言Sato模型更适合邢台震区的尾波计算和分析。     

1993年中甸M5.8地震前后区域尾波衰减研究

以Aki,K和Chouet^[1]提出的地方震尾波散射理论为基础，利用1993年7月17日中甸MS5．8地震的前震和余震资料，研究了该次地震前后的尾波振幅衰减率β和QC^-1值的时空变化。结果表明，主震前后区域尾波振幅衰减率β和QC^-1值发生了明显的变化。主震前，区域平均β值为0．0122s^-1，相应的QC值为111；主震后，区域平均β值为0．023s^-1，相应的QC值为60。主震前后的QC值变化为1．85倍，表明在以主震为中心，半径约50km的小范围内主震前后的介质背景发生了明显变化。用释放的地震应变能ε（t)的空间分布特点分析，表明主震前高QC值地区与高应变能释放地区是相一致的。中甸地震序列的尾波振幅衰减β和QC值显示了具有前兆意义地空变化的过程，并以力学观点分析解释了产生这种变化的成因。     

2004年甘肃临泽震群序列Q_C值特征研究

采用Sato单次散射模型,利用高台地震台的近场数字地震记录,研究了临泽震群序列尾波QC值在60s流逝时间下的变化特征,得到QC值随频率的变化关系QC(f)=(27.67±2.94)f(0.9924±0.0411)。分析发现:在中等地震频发时段,QC值变化起伏较弱且偏低;研究结果与民乐—山丹地震序列接近,故认为这个结果近似了祁连山地震带中段地区的介质特性。     

2001年云南施甸Ms 5.9地震余震序列尾波Qc值研究

利用云南保山地震台记录到的2001年施甸地震数字化波形观测资料,根据尾波散射理论,测量了震源区尾波QC(f)值,结果表明,中心频率为1.5 Hz时,施甸地区尾波振幅衰减率β(f)值在-0.012～-0.02范围内,平均值为-0.017,QC值在110～140之间,平均值为124得到施甸地区尾波QC值与频率的关系为Qc(f)=77f0.75尾波波源因子A0(f)与地震震级成正比,满足关系lgA0(f)=0.899ML+0.81,与频率成反比,满足关系lgA0=-0.046×f+2.84;本文得到的一个重要结果是,施甸5.3级地震的最大强余震发生之前,QC值存在一个变化过程;QC值在均值附近±1.5倍方差线内均匀地波动→QC值逐渐下降→QC值出现低于方差线的异常点→QC值逐渐恢复到正常水平→发震;施甸地区的尾波QC值不同于构造活动较为稳定的地区,而与构造活跃、地震活动频繁的地区较为接近,属于低频低QC值地区.     

依舒断裂带北段尾波Q值特征研究

研究表明,地震波穿过构造活动相对稳定地区时,能量衰减不明显且具有高Q值;而穿过构造活动地区时,能量会发生强烈衰减且具有低Q值。本文利用Sato模型对依舒断裂带北段萝北-通河地区15个数字化地震台站记录到的266条M_L≥2.0地震尾波Q_c值进行了分析和研究,发现黑龙江萝北、通河附近地区Q_c值具有明显的复杂性和差异性,且萝北地区Q_c值远低于通河地区Q_c值,其原因一方面与区域构造活动有关,另一方面与区域地壳构造复杂、地下介质破碎、区域应力不断变化有关。本文还讨论了萝北、通河附近地区Q值随着频率变化的关系及Q_0值空间分布特征,有效地分析了该区域介质状态的变化过程,对萝北地区地震活动性的研究和预测有指导意义。     

北京及其周围地区尾波Ｑ值分布特征的研究c

使用北京遥测台网数字化记录资料，根据尾波的单次散射模型，采用在频率域里求尾波能量谱密度的方法，并且按固定时间窗分别计算Q值，处理了1989和1990年两年中20个台站69个地震的数据，研究了北京地区尾波Q值随空间、频率和延续时间的不同以及这些不同的Q值随时间的变化．结果表明，尾波Q值与时间窗的取定以及频率的变化表现出较强的依赖关系．假定QC=Q0f时，对应于15——30、30——60、60——90 s三个时间窗，Q0的平均值分别为48，115和217，的平均值分别为0.89，0.91和0.74．同时，本文为北京地区尾波Q值的日常检测提供了基础的软件．      

郯庐断裂带南段及邻区中小地震地震波衰减特征研究

利用安徽省测震台网记录的波形资料,采用单震多台拟合方法计算了郯庐断裂带南段及邻区中小地震地震波的振幅衰减系数K值和卓越频率衰减系数α值,分析研究K值和α值的时空变化特征,并讨论与华东地区中强震之间的对应关系及与QC值的相关性。研究结果对中长期地震预报和震后趋势判断有一定的现实意义。     

利用重力资料与GPS数据研究伽师及邻区近期地壳运动特征

利用重力资料和GPS数据研究伽师及邻近地区地壳运动特征,首先对2005～2009年该区域流动重力观测资料进行平差计算,绘制出以1年为尺度的重力场变化的等值线图.分析表明,伽师及邻近地区近年来重力场变化相对活跃,且有一定的规律,最大重力异常值达到150×10 -8m·s-2.其次,利用2005 ～2009年该区域GPS数据在统一框架下进行重新解算,并利用理论计算得到该地区每年的面膨胀值.研究表明,该区域地壳面压缩、面膨胀交替出现,正负交界处往往是剪应变值增大的地区,即地震易孕育区域.最后探讨了重力与GPS(面膨胀)二者在地壳形变、地球动力之间的响应关系.研究表明,震前伽师及邻区重力值主要显示正变化,震后则呈现出大面积负值区域,说明压陷(面收缩)和向北扩张(面膨胀)作用交替进行,这与GPS计算出的面膨胀结果是一致的.     

上海及邻区尾波Q值研究

选取2011年1月~2012年12月上海台网数据库中记录的37次ML≥2.0地震的数字地震波资料,利用单次散射的Aki模型,计算上海及邻区尾波Q值,拟合Q值对频率的依赖关系,结果为Q(f)=(176.2±87.26)·f0.898 4±0.290 8。与国内其他区域相比,本区域Q值偏大,对频率依赖性低。结合上海及邻区地质特征及同期小震空间分布特点,将研究区域划分为以下4个小震密集区:苏中沿海区域、南黄海区域、苏州—东海区域、宁波—舟山区域,分区进行Q值统计分析,表明尾波Q值数据能够较好地反映该区域地震活动性。     

龙滩水库地区P波、S波和尾波衰减

利用发生在龙滩水库地区的144次ML≥1.0地震资料,研究了该地区地壳介质的衰减特征,并采用尾波归一化方法分别估算了P波、S波的品质因子QP和QS,用单次反散射模型计算了尾波品质因子QC．结果表明,该地区上述3个值与频率的依赖关系分别为QP（f）=（7.43±0.78）f(1.05±0.06),QS（f）=（13.08±3.20）f(1.76±0.15),QC（f）=（50.52±2.71）f(1.13±0.03),总体呈现低QO和高η值的特点．在所研究的频带范围1—16Hz内,QS／QP比值均大于1,表明该地区体波衰减中散射可能起着较大作用．QC与QS的比较结果表明,在小于8Hz时,QS＜QC;而大于8Hz时,则QS＞QC．这可能是由于介质的多次散射作用的结果．      

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.