太湖流域排污权交易优化目标模型及方案配置研究

根据江苏省太湖流域水环境与社会经济特征,建立主要污染物排污权交易优化目标模型;以重点工业污染企业为样本,对排污权交易初始方案实施的预期效果进行定量分析,提出开展排污权交易制度的政策建议.     

栅格新安江模型在天津于桥水库流域上游的应用

栅格新安江模型是在概念性新安江模型的理论基础上,以栅格为计算单元,结合地形地貌和下垫面特性构建出来的水文模型.在于桥水库流域上游的水平口流域应用栅格新安江模型,研究该地区洪水要素的空间变化以及洪水形成过程,讨论洪水模拟效果来验证模型在半湿润地区的适用性.选取水平口流域1978-2012年的洪水进行模型计算,模拟结果较好地反映了流域产流面积的时空变化,且均达到乙级以上精度.初步表明栅格新安江模型在半湿润地区有较好的适用性.     

鄱阳湖区乐安河流域营养盐负荷影响因素分析

鄱阳湖作为中国最大的淡水湖,2000年后其水系和湖体水质总体都呈下降趋势.以鄱阳湖流域内的典型流域——乐安河流域为例,初步分析了流域内面源污染的主要影响因素、主要污染成分及其对污染程度的影响.研究表明,氮比磷对水质影响更明显,氮的3种物质形态中硝态氮(NO-3-N)含量最高,对水质影响也最大.根据总氮和NO-3-N浓度差异可将流域内的水质分为4个区域,从上游到下游富营养化程度不断升高,最上游为Ⅱ类水质,而最下游的总氮浓度接近Ⅳ类水标准.3年监测期内降雨量和强度的变化导致氮、磷浓度的巨大差异,林地对面源污染物有较好的消减作用,而农田的氮、磷流失是营养物产生的主要来源,人类活动特别是农事活动对土壤氮、磷的干扰是导致氮、磷浓度年内变化的主要原因.因此,削减流域内营养盐的产生、减少入湖河流携带污染物总量是改善鄱阳湖水质的重要途径.     

长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征

在1960-2005年长江流域147气象观测站汛期4-9月逐日降水资料基础上,通过计算逐站大于95th强降水及其间隔天数、小于1.27mm/d的持续天数,分析长江流域降水极值时间序列的时空分布特征,并建立概率分布模式.研究发现,长江上游四川盆地附近及中下游鄱阳湖流域东南部是汛期强降水中心,也是长江流域强降水最集中发生的地区.汛期降水强度小于1.27mm/d的天数,在上游干流、岷沱江流域、乌江上游地区为多.但此处干旱持续天数最短,干旱形式并不严重.而在金沙江上、下游,洞庭湖流域,鄱阳湖流域东南部支流及下游干流区干旱持续天数较长.长江流域大于95th强降水的间隔天数与小于1.27mm/d的干旱持续天数服从Weibull-Ⅱ型分布.分布参数变化的模式较准确的反映降水极值时间序列的时空变化特征.     

流域水资源初始产权界定初探一以黑河流域中游为例

随着水资源短缺程度的加剧,可交易水权制度逐渐成为当今世界水资源管理制度发展的新方向.水资源初始产权是水资源管理的基础和前提.在干旱区内陆河流域,产权初始配置要在生态环境可持续的前提下,坚持公平、效益相结合的分配目标和配置原则.通过建立初始水权配置指标体系,对黑河流域进行实地问卷调查,在此基础上对用户调查结果进行专家判断修正,应用层次分析法研究了各分配指标的权重分布.以黑河流域张掖地区为例的界定结果表明,除上游的肃南县和山丹县外,其余各县市的实际用水量都超过了各自界定的初始水权,这种差别为水资源产权交易管理提供了现实依据,为开展流域上游的生态保护补偿提供了理论基础.     

[专稿]长江上游水库改变干流磷通量、效应与修复对策

磷主要随河川径流循环,是水域重要营养或污染物质,是长江及河口浮游生物限制因子.在自然与人类活动作用下,磷循环规律及变化对水生态环境具有重要作用.本文根据实测资料、理论和模型系统分析了长江磷自然循环属性、水库作用及可能的环境影响.长江磷以颗粒态为主,与泥沙关系密切,受水库影响大量沉积;颗粒磷的潜在生物有效磷(BAP)较高,总量超过人类排放;自然背景下磷与淡水系统关系较小,到河口及周边海域释放BAP是这里生态系统关键的营养资源;水库拦截使在底泥沉积并在缺氧环境释放的BAP成为河流上游潜在污染源.水库拦沙也破坏了下游河流泥沙的磷缓冲机制,增加环境脆弱性,降低污染承受能力,抬高水库下泄背景溶解磷浓度和河口碳、氮的相对程度,增加干流最下游大型水库污染和水华风险.另一方面,实测资料对比研究表明,我国河流地表水环境监测规范中的磷分析方法存在问题,采用"澄清样"方法使磷大量漏测,上下游、河湖库及汛枯期间磷通量监测口径不同、标准不一,很难适应流域一体化管理要求;依此监测的评估也会严重低估水库作用,忽视其拦磷和抬高背景溶解磷等机制,误导污染源解析,影响环境管理与决策.流域水库改变泥沙、磷及循环规律是当前长江干流环境条件的实质性改变,是长江保护生态面临的主要问题和修复重点之一,建议在大型水库持续挖泥用以功能性修复河流物质通量和消除上游潜在污染内源.     

太湖地区西苕溪流域营养盐污染负荷结构分析

污染负荷研究是实施污染物总量控制、保护水质的基础,由于非点源污染一直是水环境研究的一个难题,致使河流污染负荷估算缺乏合理的估算方法.本项研究针对太湖的富营养化问题,选取太湖上游西苕溪流域,采用GIS的流域分析方法,选取单一土地利用类型的小流域,分析流域土地类型与径流量及流域出口浓度的统计关系,获取不同土地利用类型营养盐污染的产出率,合理估算了西苕溪流域的非点源营养盐污染负荷,并根据西苕溪流域社会经济统计数据及已有的污染产出率研究成果,估算了西苕溪的点源营养盐污染负荷,在此基础上估算了西苕溪流域的营养盐污染总负荷量,分析了不同污染源在总负荷量的比例.最后通过比较估算的总负荷量与实测负荷量,计算了西苕溪流域河网体系对营养盐的降解能力.研究得出, 林地产出径流浓度总氮0.715mg/L、总磷0.039mg/L,耕地产出径流浓度总氮为2.092mg/L, 总磷0.166mg/L,西苕溪流域总氮负荷量为3143.43t/a,非点源污染负荷量为1589.52t/a;总磷负荷量为226.32t/a,非点源为108.36t/a,西苕溪流域河网体系对总氮、总磷的年降解率分别为 35.39%、21.48%.     

太湖上游流域经济发展对废水排放及入湖总磷的影响

为探索太湖流域水环境质量随经济发展的变化趋势,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型模拟1978-2012年太湖上游流域人均GDP与废水排放量、入湖总磷负荷的关系.结果表明:以1978年为计算基期,太湖上游流域人均GDP年均增速为10.3%~11.8%;1990-2012年,太湖上游流域年均工业废水排放量和废水排放总量分别为64799×104、93707×104t,与人均GDP均呈倒U型关系,从2006-2007年、2008-2009年呈下降趋势;入湖总磷负荷与太湖上游流域废水排放总量呈显著正相关,且与人均GDP呈倒U型关系,从2007-2008年呈下降趋势,在1990s以前为850~1200 t/a,1990s以后为1300~2000 t/a.该研究为从经济学角度评估太湖上游流域废水排放、入湖总磷负荷及其变化趋势提供科学依据.     

基于SWAT模型的南四湖流域非点源氮磷污染模拟

本文利用SWAT模型结合实测数据,对南四湖流域2001-2010年年均非点源氮磷污染进行模拟,分析了南四湖流域非点源氮磷负荷空间分布特征,计算各河流流域对南四湖湖区污染的贡献率,并对非点源氮磷污染严重的关键区进行识别.研究表明:(1)先模拟湖东和湖西的两个典型小流域的非点源氮磷污染,并将模型推及整个南四湖流域,该方法不仅提高了计算效率,且得到了较好的模拟结果.通过对比发现,湖东的模拟效果要好于湖西,一定程度上说明SWAT模型在起伏较大的地区能取得更高的精度.(2)南四湖流域非点源氮磷污染严重,几乎所有区域的氮负荷超标,40%以上的区域磷负荷超标严重.湖东非点源氮磷污染较湖西严重,其中洸府河流域是南四湖湖区非点源氮磷污染的主要贡献者.(3)通过对径流量、泥沙负荷、氮负荷、磷负荷的相关分析可以得出,南四湖流域非点源氮负荷以溶解态为主,随径流进入水体;非点源磷负荷以吸附态为主,随泥沙进入水体.     

太湖上游流域农业土地的氮剩余及其对湖泊富营养化的影响

太湖上游流域农业土地中氮的剩余对太湖的富营养化具有至关重要的影响．利用2002年各乡镇的农业统计资料,对上游流域农业土地中氮的剩余量进行计算．计算结果表明,上游流域农业土地中氮的剩余总量为134．8×103t/a,单位农业土地面积的剩余量为178．9 kg/(hm2·a)．从单位面积氮剩余量的空间变化看,东、西苕溪流域的剩余量较低,而其它流域的剩余量相对较高．借助典型区域氮剩余的长系列计算数据,对上游地区氮剩余的长期变化规律进行分析．并在此基础上,探讨太湖的富营养化演变趋势与氮剩余长期变化的关系．     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

北京及周边气溶胶区域影响与大雾相关特征的研究进展

针对2011年12月初北京及华北持续近一周的严重大雾天气这一热点事件,从城市群大雾过程气溶胶区域影响的视角,基于"973"项目"北京及周边地区大气-水-土环境污染机理与调控原理"的研究工作,就北京及周边地区大雾天气与大气气溶胶区域影响的关系等方面进行了讨论.研究表明,北京城市大雾前低空SO₂和NO₂浓度存在"积聚"与"突增"现象.北京及周边地区冬季雾日数和气溶胶光学厚度则呈正相关,并具有"同位相"的年际变化趋势.研究同时发现北京及其南部周边的冬季气溶胶高值区呈南北向带状分布,其与北京周边居民户数高值区有所吻合,反映了冬季北京城市气溶胶颗粒物的远距离影响源区及大尺度输送效应.统计分析指出,冬季北京气溶胶颗粒物PM₁₀、PM_2.5主要影响成分是SO₂和NO_X,且有关研究也表明,电厂、采暖和工业面源是SO₂的三大本地排放源,而机动车、电厂、工业为NO_X的三大本地排放源,上述大气PM₁₀、PM_2.5主成分污染源亦与雾水样本化学分析结果相吻合,即冬季由于燃煤在生活能源中的比例较大,北京雾水中硫元素和碳元素的含量都较高.因此,北京冬季大雾不仅与北京城区气溶胶及其污染排放影响存在相关关系,而且与北京周边天津、河北、山东等地气溶胶及大气污染物的远距离输送和气溶胶区域影响效应有着重要的联系.因此,北京雾霾天气及相关大气污染的治理工作首先要着眼于局地污染物的减排,但同时如何做好区域大气污染的协同治理也是不容忽视的问题.     

Spatial structure and scale feature of the atmospheric pollution source impact of city agglomeration

The spatial structure and multi-scale feature of the atmospheric pollution influence domain of Beijing and its peripheral areas (a rapidly developed city agglomeration) is dissected and analyzed in this paper on the basis of the atmospheric pollution dynamic-chemical process observation data of the urban building ensemble boundary layer of the Beijing City Air Pollution Observation Experiment (BECAPEX) in winter (February) and summer (August) 2003, and relevant meteorological elements and satellite retrieval aerosol optical depth (AOD), etc. comprehensive data with the dynamic-statistical integrated analysis of "point-surface" spatial structure. Results show that there existed significant difference in the contribution of winter/summer different pollution emission sources to the component character of atmospheric pollution, and the principal component analysis (PCA) results of statistical model also indicate that SO2 and NOX dominated in the component structure of winter aerosol particle; instead, CO and NOX dominated in summer. Surface layer atmospheric dynamic and thermal structures and various pollutant species at the upper boundary of building ensembles at urban different observational sites of Beijing in winter and summer showed an "in-phase" variation and its spatial scale feature of "influence domain". The power spectrum analysis (PSA) shows that the period spectrum of winter/summer particle concentration accorded with those of atmospheric wind field: the longer period was dominative in winter, but the shorter period in summer, revealing the impact of the seasonal scale feature of winter/summer atmospheric general circulation on the period of atmospheric pollution variations. It is found that from analyzing urban area thermal heterogeneity that the multiscale effect of Beijing region urban heat island (UHI) was associated with the heterogeneous expansion of tall buildings area. In urban atmospheric dynamical and thermal characteristic spatial structures, the turbulent scale feature of the urban boundary layer (UBL) of architectural complexes had important impact on the multi-scale feature of urban atmospheric pollution. The comprehensive analyses of the variational analysis field of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD-surface PM10 under the condition of clear sky and the correlation resultant wind vector field for pollution source-tracing suggest that the emission sources for winter Beijing atmospheric pollution aerosols particle might be remotely traced to the south peripheral greater-scale spatial range of Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, etc., and the spatial distribution of the high value area of AOD was associated with that of the high value area of resident family number (heating surface source). The backward trajectory feature of winter/ summer air particles exhibits analogous multi-scale feature, and depicts the difference in the scale feature of the pollution sources spatial distribution in different seasons. The peripheral source trajectory paths of urban atmospheric pollution (UAP) mainly come from the fixed industrial surface source or heating surface source in the outskirt of Beijing, and the diffusion and transport distance of peripheral sources in winter is larger than one in summer. The above conclusions depict the multi-scale spatial influence domain and seasonal features caused by UAP source influence and atmospheric dynamical structure. The high value area of the winter Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) AOD lay in the Beijing region and its south peripheral area, an S-N zonal pattern, which reflects the dynamical effect of peripheral topographic pattern on the diffusion of regional scale atmospheric pollution sources. Study suggests that the extent of winter atmospheric pollution within the "valley" megarelief in Beijing and periphery was close related with the pollution emission sources of the south peripheral area; and the significant "anti-phase" variation feature of winter AOD and sunshine duration in Beijing and its peripheral areas, and regional scale correlation of low cloud cover, fog days, and aerosols reflects the local climatic effect of aerosol influence in this region. Besides, analysis of the impacts of atmospheric dry/wet deposition distributions within a valley-scale on the regional water body of Miyun reservoir also reveals the possible influence of the multi-scale spatial structure of summer water, soil and atmospheric pollution sources on the water quality of Miyun reservoir.     

Impact on food security and rural development of transferring water out of agriculture

The competition for limited water resources between agriculture and more highly valued domestic and industrial water uses is rapidly increasing and will likely require the transfer of water out of agriculture. This paper reviews and synthesizes the available evidence of the effects of water transfers from agricultural to urban and industrial areas on local and regional rural economies; and analyzes the possible impacts of a large reallocation on global food supply and demand. It concludes with a discussion of the potential for water policy reform and demand management to minimize adverse impacts when water is reallocated from agriculture. It is argued that comprehensive reforms are required to mitigate the potentially adverse impacts of water transfers for local communities and to sustain crop yield and output growth to meet rising food demands at the global level. Key policy reforms include the establishment of secure water rights to users; the decentralization and privatization of water management functions to appropriate levels; the use of incentives including pricing reform, especially in urban contexts, and markets in tradable property rights; and the introduction of appropriate water-saving technologies.     

The long-term simulation of surface SO2 and evaluation of contributions from the different emission sources to Beijing city

With a high-resolution SO2 emission inventory categorized by industries and seasons for Beijing city and gridded meteorological data fields from NCEP, the pollution dispersion model, HYSPLIT4 (Hybrid Single Particulate Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory, version 4), is used to determine the day-to-day variation of surface SO2 in Beijing for 2000 and 2001. Furthermore,the contributions of different emission sources in and around Beijing to the surface SO2 are studied. As shown in comparison with observations, the model does well in simulating the daily variation and seasonal distribution. The model computation of the annual source contributions to Beijing surface SO2 indicates that local emissions from the city give the largest contribution and the sources from the surrounding regions contribute only about 20%. During SO2 polluted or unpolluted days, the contribution from the latter can exceed 30%, and depending upon weather conditions, the contribution may exceed 40%. If the emissions from the surrounding sources during the winter heating season are assumed to be doubled in intensity, their contribution to surface SO2 in Beijing increased from 21% to 35% and 25% to 40% in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Evaluation of 7 types of emission sources identified for Beijing for their relative contribution to the concentration of surface SO2 has shown that area emissions by industrial production and furnaces, though discharging relatively small amounts (less than 1/3 of the total), have the largest contribution to the urban surface SO2, which is the key to the mitigation of the pollutant in the city.     

Source apportionment and secondary organic aerosol estimation of PM2.5 in an urban atmosphere in China

PM2.5 is the key pollutant in atmospheric pollution in China.With new national air quality standards taking effect,PM2.5 has become a major issue for future pollution control.To effectively prevent and control PM2.5,its emission sources must be precisely and thoroughly understood.However,there are few publications reporting comprehensive and systematic results of PM2.5 source apportionment in the country.Based on PM2.5 sampling during 2009 in Shenzhen and follow-up investigation,positive matrix factorization(PMF)analysis has been carried out to understand the major sources and their temporal and spatial variations.The results show that in urban Shenzhen(University Town site),annual mean PM2.5 concentration was 42.2μg m?3,with secondary sulfate,vehicular emission,biomass burning and secondary nitrate as major sources;these contributed30.0%,26.9%,9.8%and 9.3%to total PM2.5,respectively.Other sources included high chloride,heavy oil combustion,sea salt,dust and the metallurgical industry,with contributions between 2%–4%.Spatiotemporal variations of various sources show that vehicular emission was mainly a local source,whereas secondary sulfate and biomass burning were mostly regional.Secondary nitrate had both local and regional sources.Identification of secondary organic aerosol(SOA)has always been difficult in aerosol source apportionment.In this study,the PMF model and organic carbon/elemental carbon(OC/EC)ratio method were combined to estimate SOA in PM2.5.The results show that in urban Shenzhen,annual SOA mass concentration was 7.5μg m?3,accounting for 57%of total organic matter,with precursors emitted from vehicles as the major source.This work can serve as a case study for further in-depth research on PM2.5 pollution and source apportionment in China.     

排烟方式对大空间建筑火灾空气升温的影响

为了考察烟气排放对大空间建筑火灾温度场的影响,利用FDS程序仿真模拟了火灾场景,系统分析了不同排烟系统对温度场的影响。结果表明：烟气排放对温度的影响较大,最大降温幅度可达原最高温度的50%左右;降温幅度与建筑高度有密切联系;当建筑高度小于12m时,按规范设计的自然排烟系统下的火场温度低于机械排烟的火场温度;当建筑高度达到或超过12m时,自然排烟系统下的火场温度将接近或高于机械排烟的火场温度。     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from rural household biomass burning in a typical Chinese village

Biomass energy sources are still popular in the rural areas of developing countries for cooking and space heating. Since the incomplete combustion of agricultural residues in home-made ranges might lead to both outdoor and indoor air pollution and cause potential health threat to the rural population, we monitored the ambient levels of 16 US EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at a typical rural site. Ambient particulate PAH samples (PM2.5 and PM10) were taken during both cooking and non-cooking periods. Source emission monitoring was also conducted for both improved and tra- ditional cooking stoves used in the area. Ambient PAHs had a significant increase during the cooking periods and varied from 72.1 to 554.4 ng/m3. The highest total PAH levels were found during the supper cooking time, in which five- and six-ring species accounted for a large proportion. The observed PAH levels during cooking periods at this rural site were even higher than those in urban areas. A good correlation was found between the benzo[a]pyrene level and the total PAH concentration (r=0.98), making benzo[a]pyrene a potential molecular marker for PAH pollution in the rural areas, where bio- mass burning is typical. The profiles of the particulate PAHs in both ambient air and source emissions showed a high proportion of high molecular-mass PAHs. In addition, emission factors of 16 PAHs from an improved household stove were found to be significantly lower than those from traditional stoves used in China and in other Asian countries.     

考虑区域水资源地震破坏后的信息管理模型设计

传统水资源信息管理模型采用GIS网络技术,对水资源信息进行优化配置,未对地震多发区域水资源管网进行综合规划,存在地震破坏后受污染水资源信息管理性能差的问题。设计考虑区域水资源地震破坏后污染的信息管理模型,模型包括受污染水资源信息规划设计模块、信息监测和采集模块、信息管理模块。3个模块分别实现对地震破坏后污染的水资源管网的合理规划、监测和采集以及污染信息的综合管理。实验结果表明,所设计模型对区域水资源地震破坏后污染的信息管理的平均时间达到1.38 s,且在管理过程中各项功能的评分都高于93.5分,具有较高的管理性能。     

湍流相干结构在中蒙中区一次沙尘暴起沙中的作用

起沙机制是沙尘暴天气研究中一个重要问题.本文基于中蒙中区一次沙尘暴天气过程,通过提取沙尘源地涡动相关数据中的湍流相干结构（Coherent structure,简称为CS）,研究了CS在起沙中的作用.结果发现：（1）起沙期间存在CS,其典型特征表现为上扬—下扫循环,即暖空气的辐合上升与冷空气的辐散下沉相伴;（2）起沙期间,CS具有频次高、持续时间短、间歇性适中、连发频繁、速度切变大、水平尺度远大于垂直尺度和尺度变化比较大的特点;（3）CS是重要的起沙机制,它可起动粒径在0.1~156 μm之间的各种沙粒,起动最多的是粒径低于8 μm的粉粒与粘粒,但CS不是唯一的起沙机制;（4）CS的上扬与下扫两过程均可引起起沙,区别在于前者通过暖空气的上升将沙粒向上空输送,后者则是将上空高速冷空气拖带下来引起地表沙粒的起动;（5）CS起沙分为单起式和连发配合式两种形式.单起式是单发CS产生的起沙形式,连发配合式是连发的CS产生的跃移—上扬的配合起沙形式.其中,连发配合式为主要形式;（6）下扫过程对起沙的贡献是上扬过程的1.8~15倍,上扬过程可将下扫过程中起动沙粒的1/3左右向上输送到空中;（7）一般情况下,CS对起沙具有稳定的贡献,其贡献率为51%,当临界起沙风速大于13 m·s^-1时,其贡献急剧降低.