基于生态条件的河源地区鹰嘴蜜桃适宜性评价

基于河源和周边地区24个国家气象站1970—2018年气象资料和地理信息数据，综合考虑气象、地形和土壤3大类影响因子中筛选出12个评价因子指标，在GIS技术的支持下，采用层次分析法和加权指数求和法，构建河源地区鹰嘴蜜桃种植生态适宜性评价指标体系，并绘制出了鹰嘴蜜桃种植适宜性的综合区划图，最后对区划结果作了进一步分析。结果显示：河源地区鹰嘴蜜桃种植的最适宜、适宜、次适宜和不适宜区面积分别占区划面积的28%、33.3%、22.2%和16.5%。适宜和最适宜区主要集中在河源地区北部大部地区以及中东部的零散区域，不适宜区主要分布在河源地区中东部、龙川县西南部、紫金县西南部区域。     

河源市油茶种植气候适宜性精细化区划

基于1970—2019年河源市及周边地区共35个国家气象站的逐日气温、降水数据和地形高程数据，依据油茶生长发育的气候条件，筛选出了河源市油茶种植气候区划指标，并利用GIS技术对河源市油茶种植气候适宜性进行了精细化区划。结果表明：河源市油茶种植气候最适宜、适宜、次适宜和不适宜区分别占区划面积的48.26%、18.25%、33.48%和0.01%;最适宜区主要集中在龙川县、和平县、连平县大部以及东源县西北部、东南部和紫金县中东部；适宜区主要分布在和平县和连平县南部，以及龙川县中部和紫金县东南部；次适宜区主要分布在东源县大部、龙川县西南部以及紫金县中西部；不适宜区主要分布在连平县黄牛石一带零星区域。区划结果与实际种植区有很好的一致性。     

河源地区茶树种植适宜性综合评价体系的构建与应用

利用河源和周边地区24个国家气象站1970—2018年气象资料和地理信息数据,选取气候、地形和土壤3方面共12个因子,构建河源地区茶树种植适宜性评价指标体系。在GIS软件支持下,运用层次分析法和综合指数法,将河源茶树种植区域分为不适宜、较适宜和适宜3个等级,并绘制出茶树综合评价图,对评价结果作了进一步分析。结果表明:河源适宜茶树种植的区域面积约占51.6%,主要分布在连平县、东源县东部、紫金县中东部、和平县西部、龙川县的中部偏东和南北两端;较适宜区约占48.3%,主要分布在和平县中东部、紫金县西部、东源县北部、龙川县中部偏南和靠近和平县的区域;不适宜区约占0.1%,主要为紫金西南部的小部分区域。     

基于GIS的贵州省黎平县油茶气候适宜性区划

利用贵州省黔东南州黎平县及黔东南州辖区内其余15个气象观测站1961-2000年气候资料,根据气候资源的小网格分析方法,建立黎平县油茶种植气候区划因子与地理信息的空间分析模型,以GIS为技术支撑,划分了黎平县油茶种植的最适宜、适宜、次适宜和不适宜气候区。区划结果表明：油茶种植适宜区和最适宜区占该县国土面积的53．8％,不适宜区仅占13．9％。区划结果对于该县油茶种植发展详细规划有重要参考意义。     

贵州省冬季错季蔬菜气候适宜性区划研究

利用贵州85个气象观测站1987—2016年逐日气温资料,根据冬季错季蔬菜种植的气候适宜性指标,应用GIS技术和气候要素空间分布回归模型对冬季错季蔬菜种植进行气候精细化区划。结果表明:适宜区主要分布在黔西南州东部、南部边缘及罗甸县、赤水市等低海拔地区;较适宜区主要分布在黔西南州东部和南部、黔南州南部的海拔1 000 m以下地区及黔东南州南部、遵义市北部的海拔600 m以下地区;其余地区均不适宜种植冬季错季蔬菜。     

贵州省旅游景区旅游气候优势分析

利用2016—2018年贵州省89个4A及5A级旅游景区与同期县级气象站气温、湿度、风、降雨等自动站观测要素,建立多元回归模型,重建景区1961—2014年逐日的温度、湿度、风等历史资料,计算了旅游气候适宜性指数,分析贵州省旅游景区的旅游适宜性,挖掘景区避暑避寒优势。结果表明：景区历史资料重建值较温度递减率计算值更接近实际观测数据,重建值有很好的实用价值;贵州省旅游景区适游期长, 4—11月是全省旅游适宜期;全省4A级以上景区旅游气候适宜性为非常适宜和适宜等级的总占比大于2/3,比较适宜等级约占1/3,全省全年无旅游气候适宜性为较差等级的景区;贵州夏季非常适宜避暑的景区主要集中在中西部地区,北部、东部和南部地区避暑条件属于适宜区,冬季避寒资源主要集中在南部边缘地区。     

册亨县早熟蔬菜种植的气候发展前景分析

通过对册亨县气象站记录的39 a观测资料,从光、热、水和气象自然灾害等多个方面进行分析,寻找出适宜册亨县早熟菜蔬种植的气候指标,充分利用册亨县的气候资源,促进其早熟蔬菜产业的发展。规划出册亨县早熟蔬菜的最佳适宜种植区域和一般性适宜种植区域。     

基于GIS的广东冬种辣椒气候适宜性区划

基于广东省86个气象站1980-2012年气候资料和1991-2010年冬季寒害灾情资料,采用冬季(12月一翌年2月)≥15℃有效积温作为冬种辣椒的气候资源指标,选取寒害过程中最低气温＜10℃的天数、日最低气温＜10.0℃积寒量构建冬种辣椒的寒害风险指标,完善了冬种辣椒的种植气候适宜性指标.构建指标的空间分析模型,采用ArcGIS的空间分析和多层复合方法,对广东冬种辣椒的气候适宜性进行了区域划分.结果表明,冬种辣椒的气候最适宜种植区主要分布在雷州半岛、茂名、阳江等地区,适宜种植区主要分布在南部沿海地区和中部偏南地区,次适宜种植区主要分布在中部偏北地区和北部偏南地区,不适宜种植区主要分布在肇庆、清远、韶关、河源及梅州等地的北部.     

基于GIS的普定县茶树种植气候适宜性区划

利用贵州省安顺市6个气象站1961—2010年资料,根据气候资源的小网格分析方法,建立普定县茶树种植气候区划因子与地理信息空间分析模型,以GIS为技术支撑,对普定县茶树种植的适宜气候条件进行区划。结果表明:普定县茶树种植的气候适宜性自东北向西南呈明显递增趋势,适宜区和最适宜区占该县国土面积的68%,覆盖该县2/3以上的土地均可种植茶树,为普定县种植茶树的合理布局与规划提供科学依据。     

苏州白沙枇杷东种西移气候适应性研究

根据安顺市引种苏州白沙枇杷试验观测资料,结合气象资料,分析研究了白沙枇杷生长发育习性、物候期、开花结果特性等对安顺的气候适应性;分析了安顺市推广种植白沙枇杷的气候风险,应用GIS技术对安顺市白沙枇杷种植适宜性进行精细化气候区划。结果表明,安顺各地均适宜苏州白沙枇杷经济栽培,其中,海拔高度≤900m的地区为最适宜白区;海拔高度900—1200m的地区为适宜区;海拔高度≥1200m的地区为较适宜区。     

中国单季稻种植北界的初步研究

确定单季稻种植北界可为调整单季稻生产布局和科学应对气候变化提供依据.基于中国单季稻种植区地理分布及其主导气候因子,结合最大熵模型,研究了雨养(水热共同作用)与灌溉(热量限制)条件下中国单季稻种植区的北界,并与已有方法确定的中国单季稻北界进行了对比验证.结果表明:雨养条件下,中国单季稻种植北界可达黑龙江漠河县北部,沿漠河—塔河—呼玛中部以西的大兴安岭地区及龙江—泰来—杜尔伯特—大庆—肇州—肇源以西的地区不适合种植水稻;灌溉条件下中国单季稻种植的北界则不存在,即在中国最北部的漠河地区仍可种植单季稻,沿漠河—塔河—呼玛中部的水稻种植界限往西略有偏移.本研究确定的中国单季稻种植北界与当前单季稻种植北界更为接近,明显优于已有方法确定的单季稻种植北界.     

基于GIS的三门峡市苹果种植气候适宜性区划

为了探明三门峡市苹果气候适应性及种植规模扩展空间,利用三门峡、灵宝、卢氏、渑池4个县级气象站点和苹果种植区及周边19个区域多要素气象站点资料,依据海拔高度将苹果种植区划分为塬区、浅山区和中山区3种区域,运用模糊隶属度评价各区气候因子,筛选出年均气温、年降水量、6—8月平均气温作为区划指标,针对不同气候要素采用克立格或反距离权重的GIS方法进行小网格插值,最终形成精细化的三门峡市苹果种植气候适宜性区划图。区划结果表明:最适宜区多位于三门峡市中部和中南部,适宜区多位于东部和北部,不适宜区为北部边缘地带。当前三门峡市苹果种植主要分布于灵宝中部、南部和陕县西南部,是苹果的主产区和优质区;其他未开展苹果种植的卢氏县北部、陕县东南部处于最适宜区域,渑池县大部分处于适宜区,是未来苹果种植面积扩展的首选地区,但尚需综合考虑土壤、地形、气候等因素对苹果品质的影响。     

鄱阳湖区棉花种植气候区划

利用鄱阳湖区1961—2005年气象资料和1:50000地理数据,对影响棉花生长和产量形成的主要气象要素进行分析,并建立鄱阳湖区棉花气候区划指标;通过GIS空间分析,将影响棉花生长的关键气候要素插值生成分布式数据,根据建立的棉花区划指标对鄱阳湖区棉花种植进行气候区划。结果表明:鄱阳湖北部区域即九江市所辖的部分县域,气候条件有利于棉花的生长和高品质的形成,是鄱阳湖区棉花生产潜力最大的地区;鄱阳湖区中部,气候条件基本能满足棉花生长发育的要求,为棉花种植的一般区;鄱阳湖区外围的东、南、西部,气候条件不利于棉花生长发育,属风险棉区。     

MIROC_Hires模式模拟我国极端降水非均匀性在CO2浓度增加下的响应

利用日本东京大学气候系统研究中心、日本环境研究所和日本地球环境研究中心联合研制的全球海气耦合气候系统模式(MIROC_Hires)输出的逐日降水资料,探讨CO2浓度增加下我国极端降水非均匀性的响应及其可能机制。结果表明:(1)就气候平均而言,CO2浓度增加后,我国南部地区极端降水事件的发生更为集中,而北方地区的极端降水事件分布较平均。(2)从年际变率来看,我国南部地区极端降水事件集中度在"A1B试验"中偏小,年际之间的差异不大,而北方地区的极端降水集中度增加,年际之间变化剧烈。(3)CO2浓度增加后,南方和北方地区在水平和垂直上的增温幅度不一致,且整层大气平均的稳定度呈现出南北反相差异。这种不均匀增暖的分布很可能是导致我国极端降水非均匀性在CO2浓度增加后变化的原因。     

Modelling the response of glaciers to a doubling in atmospheric CO2: a case study of Storglaciären, northern Sweden

To predict the evolution of glaciers in an enhanced greenhouse climate, results from a global climate model, a glacier melt/accumulation model, and a glacier flow model were combined. The method was applied to Storglaciären, a small well-studied glacier in northern Sweden. The difference between the present climate and a 2 × CO₂ climate around the year 2050 was extracted from a model experiment with the ECHAM4-T106 high resolution climate model for time slices at present and in 2050, using prescribed boundary conditions of sea surface temperature and sea-ice distribution, which are derived from a lower resolution transient run of the ECHAM4-T42/OPIC-coupled atmosphere ocean model between present and 2050. The local climatic conditions on the glacier for 2050 were obtained by adding the modelled local climate changes to the observed local present-day climate. The combination of the comprehensive models presented offers a tool to test and calibrate simplified models which are applicable to a much larger sample of glaciers. For the region of Storglaciären, the GCM projected temperature is found to increase most strongly during the winter months, but also shows a warming during the transition from spring to summer, and again between summer and fall, thus extending the melt season by three to four weeks. Precipitation, on the other hand, decreases by approximately 5% during May to September while there is a stronger increase of approximately 14% for the rest of the year. The consequent increase in winter accumulation on Storglaciären is more than compensated by the increase in ablation during the melt season. The glacier flow model predicts a 300 m retreat of the glacier terminus by the middle of the next century, and a loss of 30% of the present ice mass.     

大规模植被恢复对东亚气候的可能影响

利用动态植被模型CLM4-CNDV、区域气候模式RegCM4.6-CLM3.5和全球气候模式CAM4探究了当前气候状态下东亚区域可能的自然植被分布以及自然植被恢复对东亚区域气候产生的可能影响。结果表明,当前气候条件下,农作物区可能分布的自然植被为:蒙古高原以北、东北、华北平原和四川盆地的部分地区为裸土;东亚东南部及蒙古高原以北地区主要为林地;四川盆地及山东半岛主要为灌木;东北地区、东南沿海和长江中下游地区主要为草地。将农作物区恢复为自然植被后将对区域气候产生显著影响。其中,东亚东部大部分地区由于植被叶面积指数增加引起的蒸散发增强,使得夏季降水增加且温度降低显著;华北、四川盆地和广东中部平原地区植被叶面积指数减小,伴随区域内夏季降水显著减少且温度升高。而蒙古高原地区的气候变化不仅受区域内植被覆盖变化影响,还可能与印度地区和我国东南部植被变化引起的大气环流调整有关,使得蒙古高原西部冬季温度降低,而其东部夏季温度升高,同时夏季降水减少显著。研究所采用的试验方案是在相对理想的情况下进行的,但其结果为进一步区分不同地区植被覆盖变化的影响提供一定的参考。     

Surface temperature in NW Europe during the Younger Dryas: AGCM simulation compared with temperature reconstructions

 During the Younger Dryas (YD) the climate in NW Europe returned to near-glacial conditions. To improve our understanding of climate variability during this cold interval, we compare an AGCM simulation of this climate, performed with the ECHAM model, with temperature reconstructions for NW Europe based on geological and paleoecological records. Maps for the mean winter, summer and annual temperature are presented. The simulated winters are consistent with reconstructions in the northern part of the study area. A strong deviation is noted in Ireland and England, where the simulation is too warm by at least 10 °C. It appears that the N Atlantic was cooler than prescribed in the YD simulation, including a southward expansion of the sea-ice margin. The comparison for the summer shows a too warm continental Europe in the simulation. Supposedly, these anomalously warm conditions are caused by the AGCM’s response to the prescribed increased summer insolation. The region of maximum summer cooling is similar in both the simulation and reconstruction, i.e., S Sweden. We suggest that this is due to the local cooling effect of the Scandinavian ice sheet. Compared to the present climate a considerable increase of the annual temperature range is inferred, especially for regions close to the Atlantic Ocean. Received: 20 November 1996 / Accepted: 8 July 1997     

Climate policy at the local level: Insights from California

Local governments in the United States have been hotbeds of climate change activity. Recently, states have sought to incorporate these primarily voluntary actions into broader climate change mitigation programs. Using the example of California, a national leader in U.S. climate policy, this article examines the scope for effectiveness of local climate action and assesses factors related to adoption of local climate policies. The analysis draws on two original surveys of city and county governments, designed to learn about adoption of comprehensive policy tools (emission inventories and climate action plans) and programs in specific areas (energy, water, land use, transportation). Adoption rates are fairly high and growing; by mid 2010 roughly 70% of all jurisdictions were already engaged or planning to engage in comprehensive climate actions, up from roughly 50% in 2008. The adoption of specific programs varies with the degree of local government authority in different sectors, and is generally higher for programs targeting municipal facilities and operations than those targeting residents and businesses. Population size, household income, and strong support from local leaders and the public are all associated with higher rates of adoption, particularly for comprehensive actions. Partisan attitudes are more important for comprehensive actions than for programs in specific areas such as energy efficiency and renewable energy, mirroring the findings of state and national public opinion surveys, which find broader support for actions like clean energy than for explicit climate change-oriented actions. Qualitative analysis reveals additional keys to success, including partnering with other local governments and private organizations and leveraging cost savings and other potential co-benefits of action. As states move to incorporate local actions into broader plans, mandates will also play an increasing role in setting a floor for local efforts.     

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.     

The impact of climate change on cropland productivity: evidence from satellite based products at the river basin scale in Africa

We investigate the effect of climate change on crop productivity in Africa using satellite derived data on land use and net primary productivity (NPP) at a small river basin scale, distinguishing between the impact of local and upper-catchment weather. Regression results show that both of these are determining factors of local cropland productivity. These estimates are then combined with climate change predictions obtained from two general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) assumptions to evaluate the impact of climate change by 2100. For some scenarios significant decreases are predicted over the northern and southern parts of Africa.