Modified Rayleigh Distribution of Wave Heights in Transitional Water Depths

This paper concerns the calculation of wave height exceedance probabilities for nonlinear irregular waves in transitional water depths, and a Transformed Rayleigh method is first proposed for carrying out the calculation. In the proposed Transformed Rayleigh method, the transformation model is chosen to be a monotonic exponential function, calibrated such that the first three moments of the transformed model match the moments of the true process. The proposed new method has been applied for calculating the wave height exceedance probabilities of a sea state with the surface elevation data measured at the Poseidon platform. It is demonstrated in this case that the proposed new method can offer better predictions than those by using the conventional Rayleigh wave height distribution model. The proposed new method has been further applied for calculating the total horizontal loads on a generic jacket, and its accuracy has once again been substantiated. The research findings gained from this study demonstrate that the proposed Transformed Rayleigh model can be utilized as a promising alternative to the well-established nonlinear wave height distribution models.     

Calculating nonlinear wave crest exceedance probabilities using a Transformed Rayleigh method

This paper concerns the calculation of the wave crest height exceedance probabilities in fully nonlinear mixed sea states. The exceedance probabilities have been calculated by incorporating a fully nonlinear wave model into a Transformed Rayleigh method. This is an efficient approach to the calculation of wave crest exceedance probabilities and, as all of the calculations are performed in the probability domain, avoids the need for long time-domain simulations. The nonlinear mixed sea states studied include a swell dominated sea state, two wind sea dominated sea states, and two states of mixed wind sea and swell with comparable energy. The wave steepness influence and the finite water depth effects are also considered in the study. The accuracy and efficiency of the Transformed Rayleigh method are validated by comparing the results predicted using the method with those predicted by using the Monte Carlo simulation method, the theoretical Rayleigh method and some empirical formulas.     

Nonlinear crest distribution for shallow water Stokes waves

This article concerns the calculation of nonlinear crest distribution for shallow water Stokes waves. The calculations have been carried out by incorporating a second order nonlinear wave model into an asymptotic analysis method. This is a new approach to the calculation of wave crest distribution, and, as all of the calculations are performed in the probability domain, avoids the need for long time-domain simulations. The accuracy and efficiency of this new approach for calculating the wave crest distribution are validated by comparing the results predicted using it with those predicted by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, by using a previous Transformed Rayleigh method, by using some existing wave crest distribution formulas, and by using the measured surface elevation data at the Poseidon platform in the Japan Sea.     

Prediction of Height and Period Joint Distributions for Stochastic Ocean Waves

This article proposes a new methodology to predict the wave height and period joint distributions by utilizing a transformed linear simulation method. The proposed transformed linear simulation method is based on a Hermite transformation model where the transformation is chosen to be a monotonic cubic polynomial, calibrated such that the first four moments of the transformed model match the moments of the true process. The proposed new approach is applied for calculating the wave height and period joint distributions of a sea state with the surface elevation data measured at an offshore site, and its accuracy and efficiency are favorably validated by using comparisons with the results from an empirical joint distribution model, from a linear simulation model and from a second-order nonlinear simulation model.     

Predicting Nonlinear Wave Trough Distributions Utilizing A Transformed Linear Simulation Method

This paper first proposes a new approach for predicting the nonlinear wave trough distributions by utilizing a transformed linear simulation method. The linear simulation method is transformed based on a Hermite transformation model where the transformation is chosen to be a monotonic cubic polynomial and calibrated such that the first four moments of the transformed model match the moments of the true process. The proposed new approach is applied for calculating the wave trough distributions of a nonlinear sea state with the surface elevation data measured at the coast of Yura in the Japan Sea, and its accuracy and efficiency are convincingly validated by comparisons with the results from two theoretical distribution models, from a linear simulation model and a second-order nonlinear simulation model. Finally, it is further demonstrated in this paper that the new approach can be applied to all the situations characterized by similar nondimensional spectrum.     

Computation of Long-Term Statistical Properties of Wave Agitation in Harbors

In this paper,the long-term statistical properties of wave height in an idealized square harborwith a partial opening are studied.The incident waves are propagated into the harbor numerically by the fi-nite/infinite element method using three different wave models:(1)monochromatic wave train,(2)long-crested random wave train,and(3)short-crested random wave train.This study shows that for a giv-en incident wave,the wave height in the harbor is affected by the wave model used.For long-term estima-tion of wave height exceedance probability,it is recommended that the waves be propagated into the har-bor using the random wave model,and that wave heights be computed by use of the Rayleigh probabilitydistribution.     

Distribution of nonlinear wave crests

The distribution of nonlinear wave crests is examined on the basis of a theoretical probability density previously given elsewhere (J. Eng. Mech. 120 (1994) 1009). Certain errors contained in the original theoretical density are corrected, and the corresponding exceedance distribution is derived. The resulting theoretical forms of the probability density and exceedance distribution are then slightly simplified and compared with nonlinear wave data gathered under hurricane conditions. The results indicate that the proposed theoretical forms describe the observed distributions of large wave crests better than the Rayleigh law. However, the quantitative accuracy of the predictions is somewhat poor, as is typical of approximate theories based on Gram–Charlier-type expansions.     

Statistical modelling of the barrier height fronting a coastal lagoon and the impact of sea-level rise

A temporal stochastic modelling method for predicting exceedance probabilities of the beach barrier elevations fronting intermittently closed and open coastal lagoons is developed. The method incorporates synthetic tides generated from measured tidal harmonics, and randomly sampled values relating to rainfall, beach face slope, lake opening period, and wave height, direction and period. Samples are derived from distributions of each of these parameters formed from standard long term data records. The method is applied to Tabourie Lake, on the south coast of New South Wales. This entrance is sheltered from the dominant wave climate by an island close to shore, the impact of which is separately assessed by phase averaged wave modelling. The barrier elevation is determined from the 2% run-up level arising from constructive waves. The sensitivity of results to a variety of assumptions is tested. The methodology is applied to determine the probabilistic distribution of barrier heights for both stationary and non-stationary (i.e. sea level rise (SLR)) scenarios. Such probabilities can be adopted in a risk based assessment of catchment flooding behind an enclosing barrier for present conditions, or provide management guidelines for future climate scenario, i.e. changes in rainfall, wave climate, sea level. The model can also be used to investigate different management strategies and how these alter the barrier elevation for given probabilities of exceedance.     

江苏及邻近海域深水波浪与增水联合概率分析

采用Gumbel Logistic模型对江苏及邻近海域深水极值波浪与增水进行了联合概率分析。首先对联合概率模型参数进行拟合,得到联合超越概率与经验联合超越概率比较图。在此基础上开展有效波高和增水年极值序列联合概率分析,比较了三种经验有效波高与增水重现期组合事件的联合概率,结果表明在选定的13个代表点位处,有效波高在二者的联合概率分布中处于主导地位,采用100年一遇有效波高与10年一遇增水组合事件作为100年一遇联合事件偏保守;而50年一遇有效波高与50年一遇增水以及10年一遇有效波高与100年一遇增水组合事件的联合概率则随着点位的移动而高于或低于100年一遇的水平。     

波高非线性概率分布高阶谱数值模型研究

由于波浪的调制不稳定以及非线性波-波相互作用等因素的存在,波浪的分布会偏离线性假设下瑞利分布的结果。通过使用高阶谱模型对不同初始条件下波浪数值模拟。对统计得到的波高与线性理论下的瑞利分布和考虑非线性下改进的埃奇沃思-瑞利（MER）分布和依据Gram-Charlier展开的分布（GC分布）进行对比。结果表明,深水条件下波浪传播过程中偏度值变化较小,而峰度值出现增长。在较小有效波高值的波况下波高分布符合瑞利分布,但随着有效波高值的增加,波浪的非线性增强,波高分布与考虑非线性影响下的GC和MER分布结果相符。宽谱下的波高分布偏离瑞利分布的程度小于窄谱的情况,波高分布更接近瑞利分布的结果。     

The estimation of wave height and wind speed persistence statistics from cumulative probability distributions

Results are summarized of an investigation concerned with the development and validation of a method for estimating persistence statistics from cumulative probability distributions. Primary attention has been devoted to estimations of wave height persistence and the motivation has been the requirement to provide estimates of persistence statistics as an additional output for the wave climate synthesis programme called NMIMET which can provide data on a worldwide basis. The opportunity has also been taken to adapt the methods developed for application to estimation of wind speed persistence.A method due to Graham is taken as the starting point and is modified in the light of detailed examination of a number of measured data sets. The method thus derived is shown to be more reliable and much simpler to apply than Graham's method and to give results in good agreement with a range of measured data sets for both exceedance and non exceedance. The measured data used for validation include 2 sets in areas remote from the sites in UK waters used for most of the development. A comparison is also included between persistence statistics estimated using NMIMET output of wave height probabilities from visual wave data and results from measured data.     

Statistical characteristics of long waves nearshore

The random long wave runup on a beach of constant slope is studied in the framework of the rigorous solutions of the nonlinear shallow water theory. These solutions are used for calculation of the statistical characteristics of the vertical displacement of the moving shoreline and its horizontal velocity. It is shown that probability characteristics of the runup heights and extreme values of the shoreline velocity coincide in the linear and nonlinear theory. If the incident wave is represented by a narrow-band Gaussian process, the runup height is described by a Rayleigh distribution. The significant runup height can also be found within the linear theory of long wave shoaling and runup. Wave nonlinearity nearshore does not affect the Gaussian probability distribution of the velocity of the moving shoreline. However the vertical displacement of the moving shoreline becomes non-Gaussian due to the wave nonlinearity. Its statistical moments are calculated analytically. It is shown that the mean water level increases (setup), the skewness is always positive and kurtosis is positive for weak amplitude waves and negative for strongly nonlinear waves. The probability of the wave breaking is also calculated and conditions of validity of the analytical theory are discussed. The spectral and statistical characteristics of the moving shoreline are studied in detail. It is shown that the probability of coastal floods grows with an increase in the nonlinearity. Randomness of the wave field nearshore leads to an increase in the wave spectrum width.     

A general method for calculating hydrodynamic forces

This paper presents the derivation of a general method for calculating wave forces on the cylindrical members of offshore structures. By means of the proposed method one can calculate the wave loading on cylindrical members of fixed or floating offshore structures orientated randomly in waves. This method of calculating wave forces is based on the linear Airy wave theory. Calculation procedure of wave force components is presented in great detail on the basis of wave particle kinematic properties obtained from the linear Airy wave theory. In the procedure of calculating wave forces presented, definitions of the wave reference system for propagating wave, the structure reference system for the platform and the member reference system for the tubular members of the structure are first established, and then the calculation of wave forces is given in terms of its components, which are pressure, acceleration and velocity forces, including current forces. At the end of the paper, expressions of total heave, sway and surge forces and total roll, pitch and yaw moments acting on the platform are given as a sum of these forces acting on each member of the platform. The calculation procedure derived in this paper provides a very efficient means of calculating wave forces and moments during the time-domain simulations of a floating platform experiencing large amplitude motion in intact, progressive flooding and damaged conditions. Comparisons of the predictions with the measurements which will be presented elsewhere reveal that the calculation procedure developed can predict large amplitude oscillatory and steady motion characteristics of an intact and damaged platform in waves with an acceptable degree of accuracy.     

A Comparative Study of the Statistical Distributions of Wave Heights

Distribution of wave heights and surface elevations of wind-driven waves are studied.Recordsof surface elevations obtained from both field observations and laboratory measurements are analyzed.Wave heights can be approximated by normal,two-parameter Weibull,and/or Rayleigh distribution.However,while the first two models may have almost equal probabilities to fit measured data quite satis-factorily,the Rayleigh distribution does not appear to be a good model for the majority of the cases stu-died.Surface elevations from field data are well described by the Gaussian model,but as with increasingwind speeds,water surface in a wind-wave flume deviates from normality,and the Edgeworth's form ofthe type A Gram-Charlier series is then applied.     

非线性波浪波面追踪的一种新模式

基于Laplace方程的Green积分表达式和波面BemouUi方程所建立的非线性波动数学模型,是一个时域上具有初始值的边值问题,而精确地追踪自由表面的波动位置,给出波面运动瞬时的波面高度和波面势函数,是建立时域内非线性波浪数值模式的基础。本文采用0-1混合型边界元剖分计算域边界并离散Laplace方程的Green积分表达式,采用有限元剖分自由水面并推导满足自由表面非线性边界条件的波面有限元方程,联立计算域内以节点波势函数和波面位置高度的时间增量为未知量的线性方程组,通过时步内的循环迭代,给出每个时步上的波面位置和波面势函数,从而建立了一种新的非线性波浪波面追踪模式。数值造波水槽内的波浪试验表明,其数值模拟结果具有良好的计算精度。     

Cross-shore hydrodynamics within an unsaturated surf zone

This paper concerns the hydrodynamics induced by random waves incident on a steep beach. New experimental results are presented on surface elevation and kinematic probability density functions, cross-shore variation in wave heights, the fraction of broken waves and velocity moments. The surf zone is found to be unsaturated at incident wave frequencies, with a significant proportion of the incident wave energy remaining at the shoreline in the form of bores. Wave heights in both the outer and inner surf zones are best described by a full Rayleigh distribution [Thornton, E.B., Guza, R.T., 1983. Transformation of wave height distribution. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 5925–5938], rather than a truncated Rayleigh distribution as used by Battjes and Janssen (1978) [Battjes, J.A, Janssen, J.P., 1978. Energy loss and setup due to breaking of random waves. Proc. 16th Int. Conf. Coastal Eng. ASCE, New York, pp. 569–588]. A new parametric wave transformation model is outlined which provides explicit expressions for the fraction of broken waves and the energy dissipation rate within the surf zone. On steep beaches, the model appears to offer improved predictive capabilities over the original Battjes and Janssen model. Cross-shore variations in the velocity variance and velocity moments are best described using Linear Gaussian wave theory, with less than 20% of the velocity variance in the inner surf zone due to low frequency energy.     

瑞利参数在海浪波高机器学习预测中的应用

海浪直接影响海上活动和航行安全,同时也蕴藏着巨大的可再生能源,对海浪核心参数之一波高预测至关重要。基于2015年7月～2022年6月山东小麦岛(36°N,120.6°E)站点实测的波高数据,利用反向传播神经网络(back-propagation neural network,BPNN)、长短记忆网络(long short-term memory, LSTM)和支持向量机回归(support vector regression, SVR)三种机器学习模型对波高进行预测,并分析了瑞利参数的引入对预测结果的影响。结果显示,模型输入项引入瑞利参数后,对1 h和6 h波高预测提升效果有限,预测值与测试集的相关性提升不超过0.02,均方根误差的降低不超过0.01 m;在12h和24h的预测中,BPNN和LSTM模型预测结果相关性提升0.03～0.07,均方根误差降低0.02～0.03m,而SVR模型预测结果变化不显著。说明瑞利参数有助改善BPNN和LSTM模型中长期海浪预报。此外,特征扰动方法(机器学习中特征重要性的计算方法之一)验证了瑞利参数在波高预测中的重要性,瑞利参数的引入为波高的机器学习预...     

强非线性规则波在防波堤上爬高公式研究

为了研究波浪非线性对爬高的影响,解决防波堤等工程设计的实际问题,通过对数学模型试验、物理模型试验、规范公式得到的防波堤波浪爬高对比分析,分析了非线性主要影响参数厄塞尔数、相对水深和波陡对波浪爬高的影响规律,指出规范公式计算时存在的缺陷,并对其计算公式、适用范围进行修正、拟合,得到了强非线性规则波浪爬高的计算方法,可适用于斜坡堤断面的波浪爬高计算,与物理模型试验和数学模型试验结果对比表明,新的波浪爬高计算公式具有较好的计算精度,研究结果可为防波堤等实际工程设计提供重要参考。     

Transformation model of wave height distribution on planar beaches

A new probability density function (pdf) for the transformation of depth-limited wave height distributions is presented. Assuming the bore approach for modeling the energy dissipation in the inner surf zone to be valid, an analytical expression for the transformation of wave height distribution including shoaling and breaking on a planar beach is obtained. The resulting expression for the pdf is formulated with a single function and only one shape parameter, which is calibrated as a function of the local root-mean-square (rms) wave height-to-water depth ratio and the local Iribarren number. The transformed pdf is able to reproduce the shape of field and laboratory measured wave height histograms and the sharp change in the shape of the wave height distribution in depth-limited breaking conditions for low exceedance probability. Results show that the theory is appropriate to represent wave height distribution transformation over shallow foreshores or in the surf zone. Alternatively, a combination of the new model with existing state-of-the-art wave energy propagation models allows the complete definition of the wave height distribution transformation on a planar beach.     

基于人工神经网络的台风浪高快速计算方法

采用2010—2017年南海5个浮标波高观测资料和中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径集中的热带气旋参数, 基于前馈型误差反向传播(Forward Feedback Back Propagation, FFBP)神经网络(Artificial Neural Network, ANN)方法, 分别建立了各浮标站的台风浪高快速计算模型。研究显示, 基于热带气旋中心坐标、中心最低气压、近中心最大风速、热带气旋中心与浮标之间的距离和方位4个参数建立的神经网络模型经反复训练后, 模型输出结果可以很好地拟合观测数据, 各浮标有效波高计算值与观测值的均方根误差小于0.3m, 平均相对误差为5.78%~7.23%, 相关系数大于0.9, 属高度相关。独立测试结果显示, “山竹”( 国际编号: 1822)影响期间有效波高最大值的神经网络模型预报结果与观测值基本吻合, 相对误差为-31.06%~0.98%, 但计算的最大值出现时间和观测情况不完全一致。该计算方法可应用于热带气旋影响期间的有效波高最大值计算, 因而在海洋工程领域和海洋预报领域具有应用前景。