Sensitivity in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: The model and the data

Both advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which relate to the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is recognized readily by geologists and others with a knowledge of nuclear regulatory requirements as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety. We regard basaltic volcanism as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. Direct disruption of a repository site by basaltic volcanism therefore is a possibility. In this paper, sensitivity analysis of volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site is performed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the sensitivity data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP). The second model uses a Weibull Process (WP) to estimate the instantaneous recurrence rate based on the historical data at NTS (the Nevada Test Site). The model then switches from a WP of past events to a predictive HPP. The third model assumes that the prior historical trend based on a WP would continue for future activities. Hazards (at least one disruptive event during the next 10,000 years) using both classical and Bayesian approaches are evaluated based on the data for the following two observation periods: Pliocene and younger, and Quaternary. Combinations of various counts of events at volcanic centers of controversy and inclusion (or exclusion) of the youngest date at Lathrop Wells Center (=0.01 Ma) generate 90 different data sets. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each data set and the minimum and the maximum hazards for each model are summarized. We conclude that the estimated overall probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism during the next 10,000 years is bounded between 2.02×10⁵ and 6.57×10^–3.     

Volcanic hazard assessment incorporating expert knowledge: Application to the yucca mountain region, Nevada, USA

Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. A certain amount of expert knowledge is needed to interpret the geological data used in a probabilistic data analysis. As may be the situation in science, experts disagree on crucial points. Consequently, lack of consensus in some studies is a sure outcome. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameterp is incorporated into the prior distribution, π(p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π(p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, ..., etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruptionp eventually will be averaged out by taking the expectation over π(p). We use the following priors in the analysis: (1) priors selected for mathematical convenience: Beta (r,s) for (r,s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1),(2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1);and (2) three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Our study concludes that estimated values of hazard based on the priors selected for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8, 2), yields the highest hazard (=2.97 × 10^-2 . The minimum hazard is produced by the “three-expert prior” (i.e., values of p are equally likely for p = 10^-3, 10^-2,and 10^-1 . The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 × 10^-3, which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, “hazard, ” is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years.     

Geohydrological models and earthquake effects at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

 Yucca Mountain, the proposed site for the high-level nuclear waste repository, is located just south of where the present water table begins a sharp rise in elevation. This large hydraulic gradient is a regional feature that extends for over 100 km. Yucca Mountain and its vicinity are underlain by faulted and fractured tuffs with hydraulic conductivities controlled by flow through the fractures. Close to and parallel with the region of large hydraulic gradient, and surrounding the core of the Timber Mountain Caldera, there is a 10- to 20-km-wide zone containing few faults and thus, most likely, few open fractures. Consequently, this zone should have a relatively low hydraulic conductivity, and this inference is supported by the available conductivity measurements in wells near the large hydraulic gradient. Also, slug injection tests indicate significantly higher pressures for fracture opening in wells located near the large hydraulic gradient compared to the opening pressures in wells further to the south, hence implying that lower extensional stresses prevail to the north with consequently fewer open fractures there. Analytical and numerical modeling shows that such a boundary between media of high and low conductivity can produce the observed, large hydraulic gradient, with the high conductivity medium having a lower elevation than the water table. Further, as fractures can close due to tectonic activity, the conductivity of the Yucca Mountain tuffs can be reduced to a value near that for the hydraulic barrier due to strain release by a moderate earthquake. Under these conditions, simulations show that the elevation of the steady-state water table could rise between 150 and 250 m at the repository site. This elevation rise is due to the projected shift in the location of the large hydraulic gradient to the south in response to a moderate earthquake, near magnitude 6, along one of the major normal faults adjacent to Yucca Mountain. As the proposed repository would only be 200–400 m above the present water table, this predicted rise in the water table indicates a potential hazard involving water intrusion. Received: 7 June 1996 / Accepted: 19 November 1996     

Alteration of uraninite from the Nopal I deposit,Pen˜a Blanca District,Chihuahua, Mexico,compared to degradation of spent nuclear fuel in the proposed U.S. high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain,Nevada

At the Nopal I uranium deposit, primary uraninite (nominally UO_2+x) has altered almost completely to a suite of secondary uranyl minerals. The deposit is located in a Basin and Range horst composed of welded silicic tuff; uranium mineralization presently occurs in a chemically oxidizing and hydrologically unsaturated zone of the structural block. These characteristics are similar to those of the proposed U.S. high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Petrographic analyses indicate that residual Nopal I uraninite is fine grained (5–10 μm) and has a low trace element content (average about 3 wt%). These characteristics compare well with spent nuclear fuel. The oxidation and formation of secondary minerals from the uraninite have occurred in an environment dominated by components common in host rocks of the Nopal I system (e.g. Si, Ca, K, Na and H₂O) and also common to Yucca Mountain. In contrast, secondary phases in most other uranium deposits form from elements largely absent from spent fuel and from the Yucca Mountain environment (e.g. Pb, P and V). The oxidation of Nopal I uraninite and the sequence of alteration products, their intergrowths and morphologies are remarkably similar to those observed in reported corrosion experiments using spent fuel and unirradiated UO₂ under conditions intended to approximate those anticipated for the proposed Yucca Mountain repository. The end products of these reported laboratory experiments and the natural alteration of Nopal I uraninite are dominated by uranophane [nominally Ca(UO₂)₂Si₂O₇·6H₂O] with lesser amounts of soddyite [nominally (UO₂)₂SiO₄·2H₂O] and other uranyl minerals. These similarities in reaction product occurrence developed despite the differences in time and physical—chemical environment between Yucca Mountain-approximate laboratory experiments and Yucca Mountain-approximate uraninite alteration at Nopal I, suggesting that the results may reasonably represent phases likely to form during long-term alteration of spent fuel in a Yucca Mountain repository. From this analogy, it may be concluded that the likely compositional ranges of dominant spent fuel alteration phases in the Yucca Mountain environment may be relatively limited and may be insensitive to small variations in system conditions.     

Verification of our previous definition of preferred earthquake nucleation areas in Kanto-Tokai, Japan

We have proposed that points of future initiation of rupture may be mapped, based on minima in local recurrence times, which are equivalent to local maxima in the probability for main shocks to occur. These minima are often controlled by anomalously low b-values (logN = a − bM). Of the Kanto-Tokai area, approximately 12% showed anomalously short recurrence times and was proposed as asperities, based on seismicity up to 1999. During the period 1999–2003.5, about 75% of the earthquakes with M ≥ 3.5 fell into the asperities, earlier defined (for example 19 out of 23 M ≥ 3.8 events). The probability for this to occur by chance is approximately 2 10^− 14. This supports our idea that the most likely volumes to produce main shocks may be mapped by minima in local recurrence times.     

234U/238U evidence for local recharge and patterns of ground-water flow in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain,Nevada, USA

Uranium concentrations and ²³⁴U/²³⁸U ratios in saturated-zone and perched ground water were used to investigate hydrologic flow and downgradient dilution and dispersion in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, a potential high-level radioactive waste disposal site. The U data were obtained by thermal ionization mass spectrometry on more than 280 samples from the Death Valley regional flow system. Large variations in both U concentrations (commonly 0.6–10 μg l⁻¹) and ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratios (commonly 1.5–6) are present on both local and regional scales; however, ground water with ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratios from 7 up to 8.06 is restricted largely to samples from Yucca Mountain. Data from ground water in the Tertiary volcanic and Quaternary alluvial aquifers at and adjacent to Yucca Mountain plot in 3 distinct fields of reciprocal U concentration versus ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratio correlated to different geographic areas. Ground water to the west of Yucca Mountain has large U concentrations and moderate ²³⁴U/²³⁸U whereas ground water to the east in the Fortymile flow system has similar ²³⁴U/²³⁸U, but distinctly smaller U concentrations. Ground water beneath the central part of Yucca Mountain has intermediate U concentrations but distinctive ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratios of about 7–8. Perched water from the lower part of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain has similarly large values of ²³⁴U/²³⁸U. These U data imply that the Tertiary volcanic aquifer beneath the central part of Yucca Mountain is isolated from north-south regional flow. The similarity of ²³⁴U/²³⁸U in both saturated- and unsaturated-zone ground water at Yucca Mountain further indicates that saturated-zone ground water beneath Yucca Mountain is dominated by local recharge rather than regional flow. The distinctive ²³⁴U/²³⁸U signatures also provide a natural tracer of downgradient flow. Elevated ²³⁴U/²³⁸U in ground water from two water-supply wells east of Yucca Mountain are interpreted as the result of induced flow from 40 a of ground-water withdrawal. Elevated ²³⁴U/²³⁸U in a borehole south of Yucca Mountain is interpreted as evidence that natural downgradient flow is more likely to follow southerly paths in the structurally anisotropic Tertiary volcanic aquifer where it becomes diluted by regional flow in the Fortymile system.     

Improved spatial resolution for U-series dating of opal at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA, using ion-microprobe and microdigestion methods

Two novel methods of in situ isotope analysis, ion microprobe and microdigestion, were used for ²³⁰Th/U and ²³⁴U/²³⁸U dating of finely laminated opal hemispheres formed in unsaturated felsic tuff at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, proposed site for a high-level radioactive waste repository. Both methods allow analysis of layers as many as several orders of magnitude thinner than standard methods using total hemisphere digestion that were reported previously. Average growth rates calculated from data at this improved spatial resolution verified that opal grew at extremely slow rates over the last million years. Growth rates of 0.58 and 0.69 mm/m.y. were obtained for the outer 305 and 740 μm of two opal hemispheres analyzed by ion microprobe, and 0.68 mm/m.y. for the outer 22 μm of one of these same hemispheres analyzed by sequential microdigestion. These Pleistocene growth rates are 2 to 10 times slower than those calculated for older secondary calcite and silica mineral coatings deposited over the last 5 to 10 m.y. dated by the U-Pb method and may reflect differences between Miocene and Pleistocene seepage flux. The microdigestion data also imply that opal growth rates may have varied over the last 40 k.y. These data are the first indication that growth rates and associated seepage in the proposed repository horizon may correlate with changes in late Pleistocene climate, involving faster growth during wetter, cooler climates (glacial maximum), slower growth during transition climates, and no growth during the most arid climate (modern). Data collected at this refined spatial scale may lead to a better understanding of the hydrologic variability expected within the thick unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain over the time scale of interest for radioactive waste isolation.     

Two Tephra Layers Bracketing Late Holocene Paleoecological Changes in Northern Germany

Paleoecological records from two Holocene peat bogs in northern Germany are linked by two microscopic volcanic ash layers, correlated by petrology and geochemistry to explosive volcanism on Iceland. The younger “Microlite tephra” cannot be correlated to any known eruption, while the older tephra layer is identified as a deposit of the Hekla 3 eruption. The tephra layers are dated by an age–depth regression of accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C ages that have been calibrated and combined in probability distributions. This procedure gives an age of 730–664 cal yr B.C. for the “Microlite tephra” event and 1087–1006 cal yr B.C. for the Hekla 3 event. Accordingly, the tephra layers were deposited during the late Bronze Age. At this time, human settlement slowly increased pressure on the environment, as indicated by changes in woodland pollen composition at the two bogs. The tephra-marker horizons further show that the palynologically defined transition from the Subboreal to the Subatlantic Period is synchronous in the investigated area. However, the macroscopic visible marker in peat, the change from fibrous to sapric peat, the “Schwarztorf-Weißtorf-Kontakt,” is asynchronous. Bog vegetation did not immediately react in unison to a climatic change at this pollen zone boundary; instead, the timing of vegetation change depended on the location within the bog.     

Feldspar dissolution rates in the Topopah Spring Tuff, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Two different field-based methods are used here to calculate feldspar dissolution rates in the Topopah Spring Tuff, the host rock for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The center of the tuff is a high silica rhyolite, consisting largely of alkali feldspar (60 wt%) and quartz polymorphs (35 wt%) that formed by devitrification of rhyolitic glass as the tuff cooled. First, the abundance of secondary aluminosilicates is used to estimate the cumulative amount of feldspar dissolution over the history of the tuff, and an ambient dissolution rate is calculated by using the estimated thermal history. Second, the feldspar dissolution rate is calculated by using measured Sr isotope compositions for the pore water and rock. Pore waters display systematic changes in Sr isotopic composition with depth that are caused by feldspar dissolution. The range in dissolution rates determined from secondary mineral abundances varies from 10⁻¹⁶ to 10⁻¹⁷ mol s⁻¹ kg tuff⁻¹ with the largest uncertainty being the effect of the early thermal history of the tuff. Dissolution rates based on pore water Sr isotopic data were calculated by treating percolation flux parametrically, and vary from 10⁻¹⁵ to 10⁻¹⁶ mol s⁻¹ kg tuff⁻¹ for percolation fluxes of 15 mm a⁻¹ and 1 mm a⁻¹, respectively. Reconciling the rates from the two methods requires that percolation fluxes at the sampled locations be a few mm a⁻¹ or less. The calculated feldspar dissolution rates are low relative to other measured field-based feldspar dissolution rates, possibly due to the age (12.8 Ma) of the unsaturated system at Yucca Mountain; because oxidizing and organic-poor conditions limit biological activity; and/or because elevated silica concentrations in the pore waters (50 mg L⁻¹) may inhibit feldspar dissolution.     

Geochemical and C, O, Sr, and U-series isotopic evidence for the meteoric origin of calcrete at Solitario Wash, Crater Flat, Nevada, USA

Calcite-rich soils (calcrete) in alluvium and colluvium at Solitario Wash, Crater Flat, Nevada, USA, contain pedogenic calcite and opaline silica similar to soils present elsewhere in the semi-arid southwestern United States. Nevertheless, a ground-water discharge origin for the Solitario Wash soil deposits was proposed in a series of publications proposing elevation-dependent variations of carbon and oxygen isotopes in calcrete samples. Discharge of ground water in the past would raise the possibility of future flooding in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, site of a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository. New geochemical and carbon, oxygen, strontium, and uranium-series isotopic data disprove the presence of systematic elevation-isotopic composition relations, which are the main justification given for a proposed ground-water discharge origin of the calcrete deposits at Solitario Wash. Values of δ¹³C (−4.1 to −7.8 per mil [‰]), δ¹⁸O (23.8–17.2‰), ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.71270–0.71146), and initial ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratios of about 1.6 in the new calcrete samples are within ranges previously observed in pedogenic carbonate deposits at Yucca Mountain and are incompatible with a ground-water origin for the calcrete. Variations in carbon and oxygen isotopes in Solitario Wash calcrete likely are caused by pedogenic deposition from meteoric water under varying Quaternary climatic conditions over hundreds of thousands of years.     

Chloride loading in the South Fork of the Shenandoah River,Virginia, U.S.A.

Loading trends and sources of CI^– in the South Fork of the Shenandoah River, Virginia were analyzed for the period 1929–1982. CI^– has increased from approximately 2 mg/L (2,776 tons/yr) to over 10 mg/L (14,256 tons/yr). Natural CI^– is estimated to be 1.01 mg/L (1,388 tons/yr) with precipitation providing 0.99 mg/L and rocks 0.02 mg/L. From 1929 to 1949 CI^– concentrations were relatively constant and independent of discharge, conforming to the Type II curve of Davis and Zobrist (1978), indicative of natural or relatively uncontaminated streams. Since 1952 CI^– concentrations increased exponentially as river discharge decreases conforming to the Type I curve of Davis and Zobrist for polluted streams. Since 1965 anthropogenic CI^– loading at 12,868 tons/yr has remained relatively constant. Four major sources contribute 92.2 percent (11,871 tons/yr) of the anthropogenic CI^–: (1) deicing salts—4,149 tons/yr, (2) domestic sewage—3,015 tons/yr, (3) livestock and poultry wastes—2,458 tons/yr, and (4) commercial fertilizers—2,249 tons/yr.     

The role of supergene sulphuric acid during weathering in small river catchments in low mountain ranges of Central Europe: Implications for calculating the atmospheric CO2 budget

The geochemistry of dissolved and suspended loads in river catchments of two low mountain ranges in Central Europe allows comparison of pertinent chemical weathering rates. Distinct differences in lithology, i.e. granites prevailing in the Black Forest compared to Palaeozoic sediments in the Rhenish Massif, provide the possibility to examine the influence of lithology on weathering. Here we determine the origin of river water using the stable isotope ratio δ¹⁸O_H2O and we quantify the geogenic proportions of sulphate from stable isotope ratios δ³⁴S_SO4 and δ¹⁸O_SO4. Particularly in catchments with abundant pyrite, determination of the geogenic amount of sulphate is important, since oxidation of pyrite leads to acidity, which increases weathering. Our results show that spatially averaged silicate weathering rates are higher for the river catchments Acher and Gutach in the Black Forest (10–12 t/km²/yr) compared to the river catchments of the Möhne dam and the Aabach dam in the Rhenish Massif (2–6 t/km²/yr). Correspondingly, the CO₂ consumption by silicate weathering in the Black Forest (334–395 × 10³ mol/km²/yr) is more than twice as high as in the Rhenish Massif (28–151 × 10³ mol/km²/yr). These higher rates for watersheds of the Black Forest are likely due to steeper slopes leading to higher mechanical erosion with respective higher amounts of fresh unweathered rock particulates and due to the fact that the sediments in the Rhenish Massif have already passed through at least one erosion cycle. Carbonate weathering rates vary between 12 and 38 t/km²/yr in the catchments of the Rhenish Massif. The contribution of sulphuric acid to the silicate weathering is higher in the catchments of the Rhenish Massif (9–16%) than in the catchments of the Black Forest (5–7%) due to abundant pyrite in the sediments of the Rhenish Massif. Three times higher long-term erosion rates derived from cosmogenic nuclides compared to short-term erosion rates derived from river loads in Central Europe point to three times higher CO₂ consumption during the past 10³ to 10⁴ years.     

Holocene Climate in the Northern Great Plains Inferred from Sediment Stratigraphy, Stable Isotopes, Carbonate Geochemistry, Diatoms, and Pollen at Moon Lake, North Dakota

Seismic stratigraphy, sedimentary facies, pollen stratigraphy, diatom-inferred salinity, stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C), and chemical composition (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) of authigenic carbonates from Moon Lake cores provide a congruent Holocene record of effective moisture for the eastern Northern Great Plains. Between 11,700 and 9500¹⁴C yr B.P., the climate was cool and moist. A gradual decrease in effective moisture occurred between 9500 and 7100¹⁴C yr B.P. A change at about 7100¹⁴C yr B.P. inaugurated the most arid period during the Holocene. Between 7100 and 4000¹⁴C yr B.P., three arid phases occurred at 6600–6200¹⁴C yr B.P., 5400–5200¹⁴C yr B.P., and 4800–4600¹⁴C yr B.P. Effective moisture generally increased after 4000¹⁴C yr B.P., but periods of low effective moisture occurred between 2900–2800¹⁴C yr B.P. and 1200–800¹⁴C yr B.P. The data also suggest high climatic variability during the last few centuries. Despite the overall congruence, the biological (diatom), sedimentological, isotopic, and chemical proxies were occassionally out of phase. At these times the evaporative process was not the only control of lake-water chemical and isotopic composition.     

Variability of Monsoon Climate in East Asia at the End of the Last Glaciation

High-resolution paleomonsoon proxy records from peat and eolian sand–paleosol sequences at the desert–loess transition zone in China denote a rapid oscillation from cold–dry conditions (11,200–10,600¹⁴C yr B.P.) to cool–humid conditions (10,600–10,200¹⁴C yr B.P.), followed by a return to cold–dry climate (10,200–10,000¹⁴C yr B.P.). Variations in precipitation proxies suggest that significant climatic variability occurred in monsoonal eastern Asia during the Younger Dryas interval. Late-glacial climate in the Chinese desert–loess belt that lies downwind from Europe was strongly influenced by cold air from high latitudes and from the North Atlantic via the westerlies. The inferred precipitation variations were likely caused by variations in the strength of the Siberian high, which influenced the pressure gradient between land and ocean and therefore influenced the position of the East Asian monsoon front.     

Comparison of risk from pyroclastic density current hazards to critical infrastructure in Mammoth Lakes,California, USA,from a new Inyo craters rhyolite dike eruption versus a dacitic dome eruption on Mammoth Mountain

Renewed volcanic activity near Mammoth Lakes, California, in the form of dome-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) from either a new eruption at Mammoth Mountain or the Inyo craters would pose a significant hazard to critical infrastructure there. This paper compares the risk from PDC impact hazards upon selected critical infrastructure from: (1) a 100 m tall dacite dome on Mammoth Mountain and (2) three 200 m tall rhyolite domes at the southern end of the Inyo craters. For each scenario, maximum estimated dynamic pressure and velocity from two PDC volumes (10⁶ and 10⁷ m³) are modeled with the EXPLORIS PDC software (Toyos et al. Nat Hazards 41(1):99–112, 2007). Risk to critical infrastructure from Mammoth Mountain PDCs would be much greater than the Inyo PDCs because of both location and the greater kinetic energy of the Mammoth PDC material, providing comparative insight to planners should a real eruption at one location or the other be forthcoming.     

A Spatial-Temporal/3-D Model for Volcanic Hazard Assessment: Application to the Yucca Mountain Region, Nevada

We present a 3-D Poisson model that permits identification and quantification of volcanic phenomena distributed through space and evolving in time (i.e., spatiotemporal data). Specifically, the model: (1) is volcanologically informative in solving problems of volcanic risk/hazard which depends on the location and time of future events; (2) contains model fitting computation algorithms that are efficient; and (3) is flexible enough to handle a large class of volcanic risk/hazard studies. Furthermore, we apply the model fitting techniques developed in this paper to the volcanic data from the Yucca Mountain project to demonstrate a unified volcanic hazard analysis. This study also evaluates the sensitivity of the statistical models developed by experts who have addressed the volcanic hazard/risk assessment problem near the Yucca Mountain region.     

Climate-Volcanism Feedback and the Toba Eruption of 74,000 Years Ago

A general feedback between volcanism and climate at times of transition in the Quaternary climate record is suggested, exemplified by events accompanying the Toba eruption (74,000 yr ago), the largest known late Quaternary explosive volcanic eruption. The Toba paroxysm occurred during the δ¹⁸O stage 5a-4 transition, a period of rapid ice growth and falling global sea level, which may have been a factor in creating stresses that triggered the volcanic event. Toba is estimated to have produced between 10¹⁵ and 10¹⁶ g of fine ash and sulfur gases lofted in co-ignimbrite ash clouds to heights of at least 32 ± 5 km, which may have led to dense stratospheric dust and sulfuric acid aerosol clouds. These conditions could have created a brief, dramatic cooling or "volcanic winter," followed by estimated annual Northern Hemisphere surface-temperature decreases of 3° to 5°C caused by the longer-lived aerosols. Summer temperature decreases of 10°C at high northern latitudes, adjacent to regions already covered by snow and ice, might have increased snow cover and sea-ice extent, accelerating the global cooling already in progress. Evidence for such climate-volcanic feedback, following Milankovitch periodicities, is found at several climatic transitions.     

Tectonic controls on metamorphism, partial melting, and intrusion: timing and duration of regional metamorphism and magmatism in the Ni de Massif, Turkey

Mafic high-pressure granulite, eclogite and pyroxenite xenoliths have been collected from a Mesozoic volcaniclastic diatreme in Xinyang, near south margin of the Sino-Korean Craton (SKC). The high-pressure granulite xenoliths are mainly composed of fine-grained granoblasts of Grt+Cpx+Pl+Hbl±Kfs±Q±Ilm with relict porphyritic mineral assemblage of Grt+Cpx±Pl±Rt. P–T estimation indicates that the granoblastic assemblage crystallized at 765–890 °C and 1.25–1.59 GPa, corresponding to crustal depths of ca. 41–52 km with a geotherm of 75–80 mW/m². Calculated seismic velocities (V_p) of high-pressure granulites range from 7.04 to 7.56 km/s and densities (D) from 3.05 to 3.30 g/cm³. These high-pressure granulite xenoliths have different petrographic and geochemical features from the Archean mafic granulites. Elevated geotherm and petrographic evidence imply that the lithosphere of this craton was thermally disturbed in the Mesozoic prior to eruption of the host diatreme. These samples have sub-alkaline basaltic compositions, equivalent to olivine– and quartz–tholeiite. REE patterns are flat to variably LREE-enriched (La_N/Yb_N=0.98–9.47) without Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu*=0.95–1.11). They possess 48–127 ppm Ni and 2–20 ppm Nb with Nb/U and La/Nb ratios of 13–54 and 0.93–4.75, respectively, suggesting that these high-pressure granulites may be products of mantle-derived magma underplated and contaminated at the base of the lower crust. This study also implies that up to 10 km Mesozoic lowermost crust was delaminated prior to eruption of the Cenozoic basalts on the craton.     

U-Pb ages of secondary silica at Yucca Mountain,Nevada: implications for the paleohydrology of the unsaturated zone

Uranium, Th and Pb isotopes were analyzed in layers of opal and chalcedony from individual mm- to cm-thick calcite and silica coatings at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA, a site that is being evaluated for a potential high-level nuclear waste repository. These calcite and silica coatings on fractures and in lithophysal cavities in Miocene-age tuffs in the unsaturated zone (UZ) precipitated from descending water and record a long history of percolation through the UZ. Opal and chalcedony have high concentrations of U (10 to 780 ppm) and low concentrations of common Pb as indicated by large values of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (up to 53,806), thus making them suitable for U-Pb age determinations. Interpretations of U-Pb isotope systems in opal samples at Yucca Mountain are complicated by the incorporation of excess ²³⁴U at the time of mineral formation, resulting in reverse discordance of U-Pb ages. However, the ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U ages are much less affected by deviation from initial secular equilibrium and provide reliable ages of most silica deposits between 0.6 and 9.8 Ma. For chalcedony subsamples showing normal age discordance, these ages may represent minimum times of deposition. Typically, ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U ages are consistent with the microstratigraphy in the mineral coating samples, such that the youngest ages are for subsamples from outer layers, intermediate ages are from inner layers, and oldest ages are from innermost layers. ²³⁴U and ²³⁰Th in most silica layers deeper in the coatings are in secular equilibrium with ²³⁸U, which is consistent with their old age and closed system behavior during the past ∼0.5 Ma. The ages for subsamples of silica layers from different microstratigraphic positions in individual calcite and silica coating samples collected from lithophysal cavities in the welded part of the Topopah Spring Tuff yield slow long-term average growth rates of 1 to 5 mm/Ma. These data imply that the deeper parts of the UZ at Yucca Mountain maintained long-term hydrologic stability over the past 10 Ma. despite significant climate variations. U-Pb ages for subsamples of silica layers from different microstratigraphic positions in individual calcite and silica coating samples collected from fractures in the shallower part of the UZ (welded part of the overlying Tiva Canyon Tuff) indicate larger long-term average growth rates up to 23 mm/Ma and an absence of recently deposited materials (ages of outermost layers are 3–5 Ma.). These differences between the characteristics of the coatings for samples from the shallower and deeper parts of the UZ may indicate that the nonwelded tuffs (PTn), located between the welded parts of the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring Tuffs, play an important role in moderating UZ flow.     

GISP2 Oxygen Isotope Ratios

The GISP2 oxygen isotope record, with its high-resolution detail, yields crucial information on past climate change. The glacial δ¹⁸O oscillations of the GISP2 core, with their very fast onsets, are templates of a prototype oscillation of variable duration with an amplitude of 3.9‰. The halfway mark of the cold–warm transition is reached in 2 years; the top is reached in 50 years. The δ¹⁸O–time gradient of the leading front is about 7.8‰ per 100 yr. After reaching the top, δ¹⁸O slowly declines by −0.14‰ per 100 yr. The duration of δ¹⁸O decline varies from a couple of centuries for fast oscillations to about 4000 yr for slower ones. The subsequent δ¹⁸O downturn during the warm–cold transition has a δ¹⁸O–time gradient of −3.2‰ per 100 yr and lasts about 80 yr.