闪电定位仪单站使用结果及建议

利用闪电定位仪收测雷电中发现测到的频率最高的闪电强度为7000～13000 A,<1000 A的弱闪电很少观测到;观测到的闪电多在80～180 km范围内,50 km以内和210 km以外的闪电几乎无显示;观测到的正闪几率5%左右,负闪很少,负闪对强对流天气具有指示性;闪电定位资料存在30%的距离误差.     

江淮地区雷暴的闪电定位系统与人工观测的一致性分析

选取距离测站不同半径、不同闪电记录代表闪电定位系统对测站雷暴的监测,采用TS评分和KSS'评分标准,对江淮地区(111°—122°E,28°—35°N)近4年(2010年1月—2013年12月)闪电定位系统的雷暴监测与人工雷暴观测的一致性进行对比。结果表明:江淮地区南部(34°N以南)和东部(114°E以东)两种资料的一致性好于其西部(114°E以西)和北部(34°N以北)。在江淮地区选取半径13~14 km范围内大于等于2条闪电记录代表测站雷暴,二者的一致性最好,此时TS技巧评分可达55%,命中率接近80%,空报率32%~34%。若考虑雷电造成的危害较大,追求更高的命中率,则选取半径12 km范围内大于等于1条闪电记录代表测站雷暴,其命中率可达83%,但同时空报率也将提高。因此,可根据当地雷电灾害损失及其防范成本,选取适合当地的半径范围闪电定位系统的闪电记录代表测站开展雷电警报业务。     

地面电场资料在雷电预警技术中的应用

论述利用地面电场仪的探测资料对雷电预警预报的技术方法，以大气电场测量为基础，利用地面电场仪的组网，实现自动、连续、实时监测雷雨云中强雷电活动中心在地面产生的电场强度、极性以及闪电数等，提供监测范围内雷暴强电荷活动中心的发生发展演变特征和整个雷暴过程中雷电活动位置和发展信息。同时结合闪电定位系统的观测，为雷电的监测和预报提供更充分的信息。     

大气电场资料在雷电预警中应用

通过分析浙江省嵊县地区2007年6-10月12次强雷暴过程的电场观测资料,并结合该省闪电定位资料,发现当雷暴云移近电场仪测站时,在测站的防护区内（距测站10 km半径范围内）,闪电发生前的电场会出现快变抖动现象,并且快变抖动和闪电的发生具有0-1化对应关系,即当有电场的快变抖动出现并且在一定时间内电场值数次达到一定阈值时,电场值会随着时间增加而达到防护区内闪电出现的强度,很少有出现电场快变抖动而没有产生闪电的情况,利用多元回归技术提出雷电预警方法,将12次雷暴过程数据作为预报资料,得出预报方程及电场最佳预警参数。分析结果表明,当闪电集中发生在距电场仪10-15 km范围内,并达到电场仪预警条件时,为最佳预警时间,预警准确率达到73%。     

闪电定位仪单站使用结果及建议

利用闪电定位仪收测雷电中发现 :测到的频率最高的闪电强度为 70 0 0～ 130 0 0A ,<10 0 0A的弱闪电很少观测到 ;观测到的闪电多在 80～ 180km范围内 ,5 0km以内和 2 10km以外的闪电几乎无显示 ;观测到的正闪几率在 95 %左右 ,负闪很少 ,负闪对强对流天气具有指示性 ;闪电定位资料存在 30 %的距离误差。     

利用快电场变化脉冲定位进行云闪初始放电过程的研究

利用高时间精度GPS同步的雷电快天线电场变化测量仪等设备,在2004年夏季对甘肃中川地区雷暴的闪电放电特征进行了7站同步观测.在此基础上,发展了一种基于到达时间差的快天线电场变化脉冲定位方法,对8月20日一次强雷暴过程的5次云闪初始阶段产牛的快天线电场变化脉冲进行了三维定佗分析.结果表明:基于辐射源到达不同测站的时间差,能够对云闪产生的辐射源进行较好的定位,闪电的放电区域与雷暴的不同发展阶段密切相关.在雷暴发展的比较旺盛阶段,闪电的放电区域相对较高,对应的离地高度为3.3-6.4 km(此时对应的雷达回波顶高约9 km,回波强度在35 dBz以卜的回波顶高约7 km);在雷暴处于减弱和消敞阶段,闪电的放电高度降低,所分析的该阶段的其中1个云闪对应的离地高度为1.1-3.0 km(此时对应的雷达回波顶高约6 km,回波强度在35 dBz以上的回波顶高约3 km).与雷达同波的对比分析发现,云闪初始阶段的辐射脉冲源位置与强回波区具有较好的空间一致性,辐射脉冲源位置分别与25-50 dBz的回波区域相对成.这不仅在一定程度上表明了定化结果的可靠性,而且说明利用快天线电场变化测量仪组网观测对闪电进行定位跟踪有可能反映雷暴强中心的发展变化过程,同时也表明了利用快天线电场变化测量仪组网观测在强对流的监测和预臀中有一定的应用潜力.另外,定位误差的模拟试验表明,当雷电距观测网络较近时,定位误差较小,雷电距观测网络中心越远,定位误差越大.5次云闪的实际定他误差对比表明,模拟试验的定位结果在很大程度上能够有效地反映实际定位误差.这说明了该定位系统对位于探测网络上空或附近的雷电可以进行云内放电过程的较好的三维定位.     

多普勒天气雷达与雷电预警关系研究

选取湖南省长沙站的多普勒雷达资料,根据闪电定位仪数据对发生闪电和未发生闪电的雷暴单体的雷达回波资料进行对比分析验证,给出雷达回波顶高和VIL的雷电预警指标,并结合雷暴单体的速度场信息,提前0-30 min做出雷电预警,对该地区的雷电预警提供一定的技术支持。     

基于闪电监测数据的台站雷暴日统计检验及其演变特征研究

为研究雷电资料延续性及其气候演变特征,建立了基于闪电监测资料的台站雷电日计算模型。分别选取时段为1982-2013年的人工观测雷暴日和2011-2021年的闪电定位仪监测雷电日资料,结合T检验和F检验结果判断出与人工观测最优匹配的闪电定位仪监测半径范围,在此基础上,采用惩罚最大F检验(PMFT)法对福建省66个台站雷暴日资料做连续性检验且对比不同监测半径下PMFT检验值的通过率和观测与监测的均方差进而得到闪电定位仪的最优匹配监测半径。以最优匹配监测半径为基准采用EOF经验正交函数法(Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF)和9点平滑系数分析福建省1982-2021年近40年雷电日时空演变特征及影响雷暴活动因素。结果表明：(1)基于闪电监测资料的台站雷电日与人工观测雷暴日相匹配监测半径范围为12～20 km内,全省66个台站雷电日连续性检验通过率(未通过率)为80.30%(19.70%);(2)福建省近40年雷电日空间分布不均匀,呈现西南部雷暴活动强而东部沿海岸雷暴活动弱特征,EOF前三个模态的空间型分别为“全省反相位”、“东北-西南地区反相位”、“内陆沿海...     

青岛地区电场仪资料在一次雷暴天气过程中的应用分析

利用大气电场仪资料,结合天气实况、天气雷达和闪电定位仪等资料,对2013年7月1日青岛地区一次雷暴天气过程进行了综合分析。结果表明,当地面电场强度曲线在几十到几百毫秒量级内发生极性反转,变化幅度在2 kV/m以上,且完成后电场值会迅速回到极性反转前的电场值附近时,可以判断为发生了一次地闪。单站电场强度曲线可以反映出雷暴云与测站间距离的变化,闪电发生前电场强度的增加可为雷电预警提供时间。大气电场仪组网监测资料可以对雷暴云的移动路径做出判断。综合分析大气电场仪组网数据、天气雷达以及闪电定位资料等多源资料,可以更好地判断雷暴云的活动状况,提高雷电的预警准确率和时间提前量。     

闪电定位数据替代雷暴日人工观测初探

以深圳市为例,对近10 a闪电定位、人工观测雷暴日、天气雷达及探空资料进行分析,探讨闪电定位数据替代雷暴日人工观测的合理性和可行性。结果表明:(1)闪电定位数据与雷达回波具有较好的一致性,可用于替代雷暴日的人工观测。(2)基于最小二乘法,得到闪电定位数据与人工观测雷暴日最优匹配的半径范围为9. 24 km,在该半径范围内,闪电定位得到的雷电日与人工观测雷暴日的年平均误差2. 8 d,平均误差率4. 3%。通过雷暴日和闪电定位数据之间的比例关系分析,发现两种观测数据的一致性较好。(3)雷暴日和雷电日的环流形势和天气系统基本相同,两种天气条件下温、湿廓线的相关系数均为0. 99,且具有基本一致的环境物理条件。人工观测雷暴日和基于闪电定位得到的雷电日随闪电定位取值半径的变化特征及其二者关系的分析表明,闪电定位数据替代人工观测雷暴日的方法和结果具有较好的合理性。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Information for Authors

正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted