山西断陷带水平形变分析

对汶川地震前后山西断陷带及邻区的观测资料进行了处理,获得了2007-2008年的运动速率。此外,又以2003～2007年的运动速率为参照获得了汶川地震之后的偏离位移场,结果表明：1）运动似乎显得杂乱无章,观测误差也相对较大,这可能与观测时间段分别包含了地震前后有关;尽管如此,其运动分布仍有其特征,较明湿的为该带北段有向南的运动趋势,该段南部有向北的运动趋势,它们大致交汇于太原以南地区;2）震后的偏离位移场显现,汶川地震对山西断陷带有一定的影响,主要体现在断陷带的南部,这种影响以该段向北位移为主,量级为数毫米;而北段向西的偏移可能反映了来自于东侧的应力有所加强。总之,从危险性的角度来看,当前需密切关注的地域可能是该带的北端。     

华北中北部地壳运动与张北地震

本文利用华北GPS监测网两个时段复测资料(1992～1996～1999年)、华北北部两个时段垂直形变资料(1992～1998～2000年)和张北地震时的INSAR结果(1997年9月22日～1998年5月26日),从场和块体运动的角度分析了张北地震前后地壳运动特征,结果表明①垂直形变不显著,近10年来华北中北部地壳垂直形变基本上属于继承性,震时显著垂直形变范围仅约为15km×15km,量值约250mm;②水平形变在各单元内部也不显著;③华北中部各单元整体水平运动在震前(1992～1996年)和震后(1996～1999年)存在动态变化,具体表现为阴山构造带由相对静止变为左旋走滑,山西断陷带由以拉张运动为主变为以右旋走滑运动为主,燕山构造带的张性左旋走滑运动变为左旋走滑运动,而且震前形成的燕-冀形变过渡带消失于震后;④形变的大小与孕震区介质的物性和构造环境关系十分密切.进一步分析还表明①张北地震并不意味着华北的地震活动进入高水平;②当前地壳运动处在比较正常的状态之中;③未来本区有利于发生中强以上地震的空间位置主要是燕山构造带,尤其是该带的两端,以及山西断陷带等.     

西水准时空图像动态演化特征研究

<正>地震的孕育和发生是地壳内应力-应变能量的逐渐积累和快速释放过程,必然导致地壳内部和外表的形状变化。因此,地壳形变与地震之间应存在某种联系。观测结果表明,地震容易发生在形变高梯度带上,这种地区通常又是地壳构造比较脆弱的地段。用于监测地震地壳形变观测的短水准路线大都在这些部位布设。山西地区尤其是山西断陷带是华北地区现代构造活动较强的区域之一,也是地震灾害重点防御区之一。山西断陷带在历史上发生多次7级以上大地震,现在中等地震也时有发生。本文基于修改的MPI算法,利     

山西中北部地区地壳垂直形变时空演化特征及与强震的关系

采用山西中北部地区2006期和2015期一等精密水准测量资料,利用经典动态平差方法,对区域近期地壳垂直形变时空演化特征进行了研究。结果表明:(1)山西中北部地区近期整体表现为山地隆升,盆地下沉的特点,以继承性运动为主,但局部也存在差异性。吕梁断块和太行断块表现为隆升,活动速率分别为2～8 mm/a和2～6 mm/a;山西断陷带的系列盆地表现出相对下沉,沉降速率为-3～-10 mm/a;(2)汶川地震显著影响了区域地壳垂直运动形变场。震前区域地壳运动表现为显著拉张特点,震后张性减弱,挤压增强;(3)大同—化稍营、呼和浩特和榆次—石家庄一带存在地壳垂直形变高梯度带,中长期尺度上存在地震危险性背景。     

1997年以来巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震之间的黏弹性触发研究

本文利用考虑黏弹性地壳结构和精确震源参数的震后形变模型,计算了玛尼、昆仑山口西、汶川地震所形成的同震和震后形变场的变化过程与特征,结果显示玛尼地震的震后形变场有利于昆仑山口西地震的能量积累,玛尼地震与昆仑山口西地震的震后形变场对汶川地震的作用不明显,而这三次地震总的震后形变场在玉树断裂带附近形成了一个明显带有左旋性质的...     

华北地区断层形变异常与地震活动

根据断层形变求解的华北地区异常参数和应变累积率, 研究了华北主要断裂带的断层形变异常及其应震特征。 同一断裂带上的形变异常与该带上的地震有较好的对应性。 河套—张家口—蓬莱活动构造带上发生的强震, 北京地区的断层形变异常参数在总体上几乎都有明显的前兆性异常。 山西带北部的断层形变异常参数对山西断陷带及其延伸部位上的强震同样有较好的反映。 断层应变累积率反映了应力的积累程度, 其值相对较大时, 测点所在地区的地震较活跃, 反之亦然。     

大同—阳高地震后地震预报得失谈

根据大同－－阳高地震后１０ａ来华北北部中强地震活动和预报的实况,叙述了大同－－阳高地震后地震预报之得失。实践证明,大同－－阳高地震不是山西带将要开始地活动的重要标志,而应是华北地区进行第４个活动期等８幕的信号。预示今后数年内华北地区仍将可能发生数次中强以上地震。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震震后中国西部地壳水平位移场的变化特征

利用"中国地壳运动观测网络"基本站自1998年运行以来积累的观测资料,以2001年11月昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的所有资料计算的运动结果为基本参考,分别计算了2002年相对于2001年和以后几年相对于2002年的测站累计偏离位移变化结果,据此对昆仑山口西8.1级地震震时和震后中国西部水平运动场的变动进行了观察.结果表明:①以发震断裂为界,震时南侧的西藏地区发生了由北至东的偏离位移,数值超过10 mm,北侧的新疆地区发生了NW向的偏离位移,最大值也超过了10 mm;②震后(从2003年算起)左旋性质的偏离位移是断断续续的增加,截止到2005年,距震源最近的JB51(发震断裂南侧)和JB30(发震断裂北侧)站的地形变变化最大,相对达70 mm;③震后发震断裂以南的丙藏地区优势偏离位移向东,以北新疆地区的优势偏离位移向北北西,距震中越近偏离越大;④2006年,距震源最近的JB51和JB30站的偏离位移似乎有向反向移动的迹象,西藏地区基本上没有新的偏离,新疆地区的WNN向偏离位移似乎仍在进行.尽管地震发生距今已5年多了,但有关迹象表明,地壳水平形变场的有序调整可能尚未完全结束,也不排除震前西藏地区的运动由于孕震的缘故而略有所减慢的可能.     

基于三维粘弹性有限元研究汶川地震对川滇地区的震后影响

在考虑川滇地区地壳介质的横向分块、纵向分层特征,及汶川地震同震断层面静态位错上下盘非对称性的基础上,构建川滇地区地壳三维粘弹性有限元模型,研究了汶川地震对川滇地区的震后影响。结果表明:(1)震后10 a由于介质粘弹性松弛效应产生的远场水平变形在川滇菱形地块内部约0~20 mm,对其北部影响较大,南部较小,其产生的远场垂直变形较小,在川滇菱形地块大部分区域表现为0~4 mm的上升;(2)离发震断层较近的鲜水河断裂、东昆仑断裂,震后水平和垂直形变呈现高梯度带;(3)为了和汶川地震之后川滇地区强震活动进行对比,计算了主要块体边界活动断裂水平应力状态和库仑破裂应力变化。从同震及震后位移场空间分布特征、应力状态反映的断层活动特征及库仑破裂应力变化反映的断层面应力加卸载情况来看,与该区域强震活动分布在空间上存在一定的相关性。     

华北地区跨断层垂直形变分区特征及其对块体划分的意义

对 70年代以来的华北地区跨断层形变测量资料进行了分区研究。按构造单元将华北地区的跨断层测量台站或测点分为五组 :山西带、郯庐带、阴山 -燕山带西段、阴山 -燕山带东段和首都圈。对 80项实测资料的计算结果表明 ,华北地区断层垂直活动平均年速率为 0 335mm/a ,但各分区之间的断层活动速率值相差很大。山西断陷带的断层形变速率最高 ,是华北地区最重要的活动块体边界 ;其它构造带的断层形变速率都比较低     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.