Reducing systematic errors by empirically correcting model errors

A methodology for the correction of systematic errors in a simplified atmospheric general‐circulation model is proposed. First, a method for estimating initial tendency model errors is developed, based on a 4‐dimensional variational assimilation of a long‐analysed dataset of observations in a simple quasi‐geostrophic baroclinic model. Then, a time variable potential vorticity source term is added as a forcing to the same model, in order to parameterize subgrid‐scale processes and unrepresented physical phenomena. This forcing term consists in a (large‐scale) flow dependent parametrization of the initial tendency model error computed by the variational assimilation. The flow dependency is given by an analogues technique which relies on the analysis dataset. Such empirical driving causes a substantial improvement of the model climatology, reducing its systematic error and improving its high frequency variability. Low‐frequency variability is also more realistic and the model shows a better reproduction of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes. A link between the large‐scale flow and the model error is found only in the Euro‐Atlantic sector, other mechanisms being probably the origin of model error in other areas of the globe.     

Toward a phase‐space cartography of the short‐ and medium‐range predictability of weather regimes

We compare the short‐ and medium‐range predictability of weather regimes of a quasi‐geostrophic model as defined by a hierarchical cluster algorithm and a Lyapunov‐based clustering method recently introduced in the literature. Both procedures lead to weather regimes displaying very different predictability properties on the short and medium range bases. While the former does not distinguish between stable and unstable weather regimes, the latter leads to clusters which do not display a good medium range predictability. We introduce a new clustering method taking advantages of the two previous techniques. Its application in the context of the quasi‐geostrophic model gives rise to regimes possessing at the same time a good medium range skill and well separated instability properties, indicating the possibility to build a systematic cartography of the short‐term predictability of weather fields in phase space.     

Equatorially trapped Rossby waves in the presence of meridionally sheared baroclinic flow in the Pacific Ocean

TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data are analyzed for the 8.5-year period November 1992 to May 2001 to investigate the sea surface height (SSH) and geostrophic velocity signatures of quasi-annual equatorially trapped Rossby waves in the Pacific. The latitudinal structures of SSH and both components of geostrophic velocity are found to be asymmetric about the equator across the entire Pacific with larger amplitude north of the equator. The westward phase speeds are estimated by several different methods to be in the range 0.5-0.6 m s⁻¹. These observed characteristics are inconsistent with the classical theory for first vertical, first meridional mode equatorially trapped Rossby waves, which predicts a phase speed of about 0.9 m s⁻¹ with latitudinally symmetric structures of SSH and zonal velocity and antisymmetric structure of meridional velocity. The observations are even less consistent with the latitudinal structures of SSH and geostrophic velocity components for other modes of the classical theory.The latitudinal asymmetries deduced here have also been consistently observed in past analyses of subsurface thermal data and altimeter data and have been variously attributed to sampling errors in the observational data, a superposition of multiple meridional Rossby wave modes, asymmetric forcing by the wind, and forcing by cross-equatorial southerly winds in the eastern Pacific. We propose a different mechanism to account for the observed asymmetric latitudinal structure of low-frequency equatorial Rossby waves. From the free-wave solutions of a simple 1.5-layer model, it is shown that meridional shears in the mean equatorial current system significantly alter the potential vorticity gradient in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The observed asymmetric structures of sea surface height and geostrophic velocity components are found to be a natural consequence of the shear modification of the potential vorticity gradient. The mean currents also reduce the predicted westward phase speed of first meridional mode Rossby waves, improving consistency with the observations.     

Interactions of Mesoscale Eddy and Western Boundary Current: A Reduced-Gravity Numerical Model Study

A reduced-gravity primitive equation eddy resolving model is used to study the interaction of a typhoon-induced eddy and a wind-driven general circulation. A typhoon-induced eddy is characterized by a core with a relative vorticity of the same order as the local Coriolis parameter. This eddy is neutrally stable relative to a disturbance induced by the westward advection of the eddy, due to the planetary β-effect. Hence, its evolution in the open ocean is similar to the classical frontal geostrophic eddy. Within the western boundary flow regime, the eddy is entrained northward by the mean circulation. This northward eddy advection and the mean-vorticity advection due to eddy flow induce another disturbance with a north-south asymmetry into the circular eddy. Together with the zonal asymmetric disturbance, associated with the planetary β-effect, the original circular eddy becomes unstable. The nonlinear eddy-flow interactions in the eastern flank of a western boundary current causes the eddy to deform quickly into an ellipse and lose its waters and energy into the mean circulation.     

超强台风桑美(0608)在残涡卷入后突然增强的数值模拟

利用中国气象局整编的CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对2006年超强台风桑美(Saomai)在我国近海的突然增强过程进行诊断分析,结果表明:在Saomai突然增强过程中,总涡度收支在高层首先开始增加,接着中层涡度开始增加并逐渐向低层伸展,当高层涡度由增大转为减小,中低层涡度都转为增大时,Saomai趋于突然增强。在Saomai突然增强过程中,在对流层中低层,涡度平流项贡献最大,这与同期活动在西太平洋洋面上Saomai西侧的热带气旋宝霞(Bopha)有密切联系。进而利用中尺度模式WRF_ARW V 3.3进行数值模拟,结果表明:在Saomai西侧,Bopha的气旋性环流并入Saomai后,Bopha减弱而Saomai突然增强,Bopha残涡(remnant)正涡度带的卷入是Saomai在我国近海突然增强的重要原因。     

冬季黄海暖流西偏机理数值探讨

利用海洋数值模式(MITgcm)模拟了冬季黄海流场并对冬季黄海暖流西偏的机理进行了探讨。冬季黄海流场模拟试验表明,黄海暖流由济州岛以西约32.5°N,125°E附近进入黄海,然后沿着黄海深槽西侧70 m等深线附近向北偏西运动;海面高度调整对黄海暖流路径具有重要影响,沿着黄海暖流路径的海面高度梯度比周围海区大,由海面高度梯度产生的地转流引起的北向体积输运占总的北向体积输运的78%。狭长海湾地形控制试验表明,单纯的黄海地形分布不足以引起黄海暖流西偏。黄海典型断面试验与渤海、黄海、东海地形控制试验说明,黄海暖流进入黄海的地理位置对流场分布有重要影响,黄海暖流进入黄海的位置恰好位于深槽西侧地形坡度较大区域,在位涡守恒的约束下黄海暖流受地形捕获沿70 m等深线附近向北偏西运动;试验还表明,黄海暖流进入黄海的位置与东海北部环流和地形分布有关,在冬季风的作用下东海北部环流的一部分沿着地形陡坡进入黄海形成黄海暖流。由此认为,黄海、东海环流在其特殊地形的约束下对冬季风的响应和调整,是引起黄海暖流西偏的主要原因。     

An inverse modeling study in Fram Strait. Part I: dynamics and circulation

In order to reconstruct the circulation in the northern Greenland Sea, between 77°N and 81°N, and the exchanges with the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, a variational inverse model is applied to the density field observed in summer 1984 during the MIZEX 84 experiment. An estimate of the three-dimensional large-scale pressure field is obtained in which the solution is decomposed into a limited number of vertical modes and the mode amplitudes are described by piece-wise polynomials on a finite-element grid. The solution should be consistent with a frictional depth-integrated vorticity balance and with the density data. The global model parameters are tuned to ensure agreement between the retrieved geostrophic velocity and independent currentmeter data. In a companion paper (Schlichtholz and Houssais, 1999b), the same method, but without dynamical constraint, is applied to the same hydrographic dataset to perform a detailed water mass analysis and to estimate individual water mass transports.A comprehensive picture of the summer geostrophic circulation in Fram Strait is obtained in which northward recirculations in the East Greenland Current (EGC) and various recirculations from the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) to the EGC are identified. It is suggested that the branch of the WSC following the upper western slope of the Yermak Plateau turns westward beyond 81°N and recirculates southward along the lower slope, then merging with a westward recirculating branch south of 79°N. At 79°N, a southward net transport of 6.5 Sv is found in the EGC which, combined with a northward net transport of only 1.5 Sv in the WSC, results in a fairly large outflow of 5 Sv from the Arctic Ocean to the Greenland Sea.The inverse solutions show that, in summer, the local induction of vorticity by the wind stress curl or by meridional advection of planetary vorticity should be small, so that, in the EGC and in the WSC, the vorticity balance is mainly achieved between the bottom pressure torque and dissipation of vorticity through bottom friction. A substantial barotropic flow associated with along-slope potential energy gradients is indeed identified on both sides of the strait.     

Diagnosing cyclogenesis by partitioning energy and potential enstrophy in a linear quasi‐geostrophic model

Baroclinic development is studied with 2 linear, quasi‐geostrophic models. One model is the Eady model, the other uses more realistic wind, density, Coriolis, and static stability. Initial‐value solutions are diagnosed using time series of potential enstrophy ( H ), total energy ( E ), the components of H and E , and the amplitude norm. Two vertical structures for the initial condition are used for both models. One initial condition is representative of a class of initial conditions studied previously having enhanced nonmodal growth (NG). The other initial condition approximates observed conditions prior to cyclogenesis. Results are shown for the most unstable normal mode wavelength of each model. The growth rates of the components of H and E evolve quite differently for different initial states and models tested. NG in H is shown to be sensitive to the contribution of the boundary potential vorticity (BPV) of the initial state; small adjustments in eddy structure at the boundary significantly alter BPV and H growth rates. The amount of NG is related to how far BPV present initially differs from the asymptotic normal mode. The effect upon NG of each approximation present in the Eady model (but not in the other model) are considered. Using realistic mean flow shear, static stability, or compressibility can significantly reduce NG but including linearly varying Coriolis parameter did not. Two conceptual models of NG are considered. Growth by increasingly favorable superposition remains relevant. Growth by "tilting into the vertical" is shown to be incorrect.     

南海北部陆坡中尺度涡的演化及传播规律分析

The continental slope in the northern South China Sea(SCS) is rich in mesoscale eddies which play an important role in transport and retention of nutrients and biota. In this study, we investigate the statistical properties of eddy distributions and propagation in a period of 24 years between 1993 and 2016 by using the altimeter data. A total of 147 eddies are found in the continental slope region(CSR), including 70 cyclonic eddies(CEs) and 77 anticyclonic eddies(ACEs). For those eddies that appear in the CSR, the surrounding areas of Dongsha Islands(DS) and southwest of Taiwan(SWT) are considered as the primary sources, where eddies generated contribute more than 60% of the total. According to the spatial distribution of eddy relative vorticity, eddies are weakening as propagating westward. Although both CEs and ACEs roughly propagate along the slope isobaths, there are discrepancies between CEs and ACEs. The ACEs move slightly faster in the zonal direction, while the CEs tend to cross the isobaths with large bottom depth change. The ACEs generally move further into the basin areas after leaving the CSR while CEs remain around the CSR. The eddy propagation on the continental slope is likely to be associated with mean flow at a certain degree because the eddy trajectories have notable seasonal signals that are consistent with the seasonal cycle of geostrophic current. The results indicate that the eddy translation speed is statistically consistent with geostrophic velocity in both magnitude and direction.     

Surface circulation in the southwestern Japan/East Sea as observed from drifters and sea surface height

The mean circulation of the surface layer of the southwestern Japan/East Sea (JES) was examined using current measurements collected at 15 m by satellite-tracked drifters and merged sea level anomalies from satellite altimeters. The study of circulation patterns in this paper focused on the inflow passing through the western channel of the Korea Strait from the East China Sea. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of non-seasonal sea level anomalies revealed that significant energy in the circulation pattern of Ulleung Basin was controlled by the inflow conditions through the Korea Strait. Three circulation patterns were identified that depended on the initial relative vorticity of the inflow. When inflow had initially large negative vorticity, the flow gained more negative vorticity due to deepening of the bottom (stretching) and then turned right after entering the JES. The inflow then followed the path of the Tsushima Warm Current along the coast of Japan. When the inflow was strong, with a speed in excess of 55 cm/s and with a large positive vorticity, potential vorticity appeared to be conserved. In this case, the EKWC followed isobaths along the coast and then left the coast, following topographic features north of Ulleung-Do. The northward flowing jet developed inertial meandering after leaving the coast, which is a characteristic of many western boundary currents. The regular, bimonthly deployments of drifters in the western portion of the Korea Strait revealed that splitting or branching of the flow through the western channel of the Korea Strait occurred only 15% of the time. And splitting or branching rarely occurred during the fall and winter seasons, when the inflow splitting was previously reported in hydrographic surveys. The time-averaged circulation map of the EKWC and its seaward extension were considerably enhanced by using regularly sampled geostrophic velocities calculated from sea level anomalies to remove biases in the mean velocity that were caused by irregular spatial and temporal drifter observations. The East Korean Warm Current, a mean coastal current along the Korean coast, behaved like the simple model by Arruda et al. (2004) in which the generation of the Ulleung Warm Eddy and the meandering circulation pattern were well reproduced.     

Study on the currents in Lake Biwa (I)

Some numerical experiments by the barotropic nonlinear two dimensional models are performed to study the water circulations in Lake Biwa, especially to study the large anticlockwise gyre in the north basin. The wind fields used in the experiments have no rotational component. This gyre is induced by the southerly wind and is approximately on the geostrophic balance. The vorticity of this gyre is contributed from the vertical stretching of the vortex tube by the variable bottom topography and the inertia term. But the latter term does not become effective if the bottom profile of the basin is flat. Therefore the horizontal circulation in the barotropic closed basin is the “topographic gyres”. The bottom stress has a little contribution to the vorticity balance of the gyre.     

Hydrographic characteristics and its variation of the South China Sea before and after monsoon burst in 1998

The differences of temperature, salinity distribution characteristics and structure of circulation in the upper layer of the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed, based on the CTD and ADCP data from the two intensive surveyed cruises (IOP1: April 10 - May 5; IOP2: June 12 - July 6) and carried out before and after the Asian monsoon burst (May 25) during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) in 1998. The results showed that field of temperature in the upper layer of the SCS distinctly changed before and after the monsoon burst, the average surface temperature increased by 0.75℃, with its influence down to the depth of 500 m. The interaction of the local circulation in some areas resulted in the complexity and variability of the temperature and salinity structure in the upper layer, and the alternating distribution of cold and warm water regions (blocks). The high salinity subsurface water obviously intruded into the SCS from the Northwest Pacific, but only limited to the area of southwest of Taiw     

Climatic parameters of wind-field variability in the Black Sea region: Numerical reanalysis of regional atmospheric circulation

A reanalysis of atmospheric circulation in the Black Sea region is performed with a high spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km for the period from 1958 to 2001. Climatic wind speed fields are estimated, as are their spatial structure and seasonal variability. Mesoscale regions of cyclonic and anticyclonic speed vorticity, which are connected with edge effects and orography, are distinguished. To single out the monsoon mechanism in the annual votricity cycle, numerical experiments on the sensitivity that the regional atmospheric circulation has to the sea-surface temperature perturbations have been carried out. Large-scale regional peculiarities of the surface wind field are considered for different seasons. The vorticity of the surface wind speed and strength is assessed. Large annual average values of the vorticity are obtained which are comparable with the range of seasonal variability; they evidence the defining role that wind plays in the generation and seasonal variability, as well as the average cyclonic water circulation in the Black Sea.     

The Circulation in the Upper and Intermediate Layers of the South China Sea

The circulation in the basin of the South China Sea is reproduced using a four-layer numerical model. Current fields in the second (upper) and third (intermediate) layers are emphasized. Three eddies coexist in the upper layer in summer. The circulation pattern in this layer is similar to that in the first (surface) layer. In winter, a cyclonic circulation occupies the entire basin of the South China Sea in the upper layer as in the surface layer. On the other hand, the circulation pattern in the intermediate layer is fairly different from that in upper two layers especially in winter. A double-gyre pattern appears in the intermediate layer during winter. The pattern is caused by the propagation of the baroclinic Rossby wave of the second mode. This wave is excited at onset of the winter monsoon wind. Such circulation pattern well explains the observed salinity distribution in the intermediate layer. Although the double-gyre pattern in the intermediate layer is revealed even in summer in this model, it is restricted in the western part of the basin. Besides, its current speed is small compared to that in winter.     

Eddy Shedding from the Kuroshio Bend at Luzon Strait

TOPEX/POSEDIENT-ERS satellite altimeter data along with the mean state from the Parallel Ocean Climate Model result have been used to investigate the variation of Kuroshio intrusion and eddy shedding at Luzon Strait during 1992–2001. The Kuroshio penetrates into the South China Sea and forms a bend. The Kuroshio bend varies with time, periodically shedding anticyclonic eddies. Criteria of eddy shedding are identified: 1) When the shedding event occurs, there are usually two centers of high Sea Surface Height (SSH) together with negative geostrophic vorticity in the Kuroshio Bend (KB) area. 2) Between the two centers of high SSH there usually exists positive geostrophic vorticity. These criteria have been used to determine the eddy shedding times and locations. The most frequent eddy shedding intervals are 70, 80 and 90 days. In both the winter and summer monsoon period, the most frequent locations are 119.5°E and 120°E, which means that the seasonal variation of eddy shedding location is unclear.     

Circulation and transport of water masses in the Lazarev Sea, Antarctica, during summer and winter 2006

The distribution and circulation of water masses in the region between 6°W and 3°E and between the Antarctic continental shelf and 60°S are analyzed using hydrographic and shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data taken during austral summer 2005/2006 and austral winter 2006. In both seasons two gateways are apparent where Warm Deep Water (WDW) and other water masses enter the Weddell Gyre through the Lazarev Sea: (a) a probably topographically trapped westward, then southwestward circulation around the northwestern edge of Maud Rise with maximum velocities of about 20 cm s⁻¹ and (b) the Antarctic Coastal Current (AntCC), which is confined to the Antarctic continental shelf slope and is associated with maximum velocities of about 25 cm s⁻¹.Along two meridional sections that run close to the top of Maud Rise along 3°E, geostrophic velocity shears were calculated from CTD measurements and referenced to velocity profiles recorded by an ADCP in the upper 300 m. The mean accuracy of the absolute geostrophic velocity is estimated at ±2 cm s⁻¹. The net baroclinic transport across the 3°E section amounts to 20 and 17 Sv westward for the summer and winter season, respectively. The majority of the baroclinic transport, which accounts for ∼60% of the total baroclinic transport during both surveys, occurs north of Maud Rise between 65° and 60°S.However, the comparison between geostrophic estimates and direct velocity measurements shows that the circulation within the study area has a strong barotropic component, so that calculations based on the dynamic method underestimate the transport considerably. Estimation of the net absolute volume transports across 3°E suggests a westward flow of 23.9±19.9 Sv in austral summer and 93.6±20.1 Sv in austral winter. Part of this large seasonal transport variation can be explained by differences in the gyre-scale forcing through wind stress curl.     

西太平洋暖池海温异常年夏季东亚大气环流特征

利用NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料对西太平洋暖池区海表水温冷、暖异常年夏季东亚大气环流作了合成分析,与气候平均比较后发现:夏季暖池区暖异常时,在西太平洋上空的对流层低层产生一个强的反气旋偏差环流,因而不利于南海南部和赤道太平洋地区的西风发展,使热带夏季风强度减弱;在南海西部和中南半岛东部有偏差气流转向大陆,因而增强了偏南风,使副热带夏季风强度增强;在对流层中、下层副高脊线位置偏南,大约以400hPa为分界线,低层副高强度增强,高层副高强度减弱。西太平洋暖池冷异常年夏季东亚大气环流特征大致与上述情况相反,且强度或变化幅度小于暖异常年夏季。另外,与气候平均比较,暖异常年纬向Walker环流上升支大幅西移,而冷异常年该环流上升支则东移。     

孟加拉湾上层地转环流周年变化的遥感研究

应用1993～2003年TOPEX/Poseidon卫星测高数据结合历史水文资料,反演了孟加拉湾海面动力地形的平均周年变化,探讨了孟加拉湾上层环流季节特征和演变规律.结果显示,虽然孟加拉湾的大气环流受季风支配年周期波动显著,但表层环流形态的周年演变却呈3个不同的阶段.1～4月间(东北季风后期)湾内受一个海盆尺度的强大反气旋式环流的支配,湾口为西向流;5月西南季风骤起,印度季风漂流越过印度半岛南端出现在湾口,湾内反气旋环流弱化,在其南北两侧各出现一气旋式涡,构成5～9月间南北相间的三涡结构;10月东北季风再起,湾口漂流再次转向,10～12月间湾内则为海盆尺度的弱气旋式环流.受上述环流格局影响,位于西边界的印度沿岸流亦呈相应的3个阶段变化.分析表明,孟加拉湾风应力旋度的变化是造成湾内环流3个阶段演变的主要原因.本地风场和来自赤道海域的外强迫的共同驱动形成了孟加拉湾环流周年演变的独特规律.     

Toward parameterization of the eddy field near the Gulf Stream

Analysis of measurements from two long-term moored arrays in and near the Gulf Stream suggests a simple parameterization of eddy spatial covariance statistics: a parameterization that can be referred to as “quasi-homogeneous and isotropic”. Taking the normalized covariance function (i.e. the correlation function) for streamfunction to be homogeneous and isotropic and assuming motions to be horizontally nondivergent and hydrostatic permit the velocity and temperature covariances to be derived from the streamfunction covariance. Statistical tests indicate that deviations from these assumptions are indistinguishable from Gaussian random noise. The spatial correlation function used in Gaussian with a decay scale of about 140 km, which is only weakly depth dependent. A simple form is also suggested for the vertical lag dependence. This parameterization permits calculation of derived quantities such as the eddy vorticity flux divergence which is discussed in the context of the mean potential vorticity balances for the depth integrated circulation and for the subthermocline layer. The divergence of the relative vorticity flux is found capable of driving two counter-rotating gyres of strength 30–40 Sv on either side of the Stream, as are observed. The “thickness flux” dominates the lower layer eddy potential vorticity flux and is of the correct sign to make the recirculation more barotropic. The lower layer eddy forcing is weak and the gyres exist in a region of nearly uniform mean potential vorticity.