Where are Germany’s gains from Kyoto? Estimating the effects of global warming on agriculture

Motivated by the high abatement costs of the Kyoto Protocol for Germany, this paper is estimating the economic impact of global warming on agriculture in that country. The hedonic approach is used as theoretical background. Stating that land prices are – among others – determined by climatic factors, this approach can consequently be used to value global warming. To avoid a priori restrictions stemming from functional forms, the land price function is modeled as quadratic Box–Cox function that nests a wide range of specifications. In a second step, the estimated results are used to forecast the impact of climate change. The results indicate that German farmers will be winners of climate change in the short run, with maximum gains occurring at a temperature increase of +0.6°C against current levels. In the long run, there may be losses from global warming. However, the net present value from climate change is under the most probable scenarios positive.     

“A convenient truth”: air travel passengers’ willingness to pay to offset their CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions

Several economic reviews demonstrate the substantial costs related to climate change and consequently call for early action. These reviews, however, have been limited to measuring ‘objective’ risks and expected material damage related to climate change. The ‘subjective’ perceived risk of climate change and society’s willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid these risks are expected to provide an important additional motivation for direct action. We investigate whether and why air travel passengers—an increasingly important source of greenhouse gas emissions—are supportive of measures that increase the cost of their travel based on the polluter pays principle and compensate the damage caused by their flight. Compared to the results of the few previous studies that have elicited WTP estimates for climate policy more generally, our results appear to be at the lower end of the scale, while a comparison to estimates of the social cost of carbon shows that the average WTP estimate in this study is close to the estimated marginal damage cost. Although significant differences are found between travellers from Europe, North America, Asia and the rest of the world, we show that there exists a substantial demand for climate change mitigation action. The positive risk premium over and above the expected property damage cost assessments should be accounted for more explicitly in economic reviews as it will add to the burden of proof of direct action. Measurements of passenger WTP will help policy makers to design effective financial instruments aimed at discouraging climate-unfriendly travel activities as well as to generate funds for the measures directed at climate change mitigation and adaptation. Based on stated WTP by travellers to offset their greenhouse gas emissions, funds in the order of magnitude of €23 billion could be generated annually to finance climate change mitigation activities.     

Climate Change to the End of the Millennium

Anthropogenic climate change will continue long after anthropogenic CO₂ emissions cease. Atmospheric CO₂, global warming and ocean circulation will approach equilibrium on the millennial timescale, whereas thermal expansion of the ocean, ice sheet melt and their contributions to sea level rise are unlikely to be complete. Atmospheric CO₂ in year 3000 depends non-linearly on the total amount of CO₂ emitted and is very likely to exceed the present level of ∼380 ppmv. CO₂ is doubled for ∼2500 GtC emitted, quadrupled if all ∼5000 GtC of conventional fossil fuel resources are emitted, and increases by a factor of ∼32 if a further 20,000 GtC of exotic fossil fuel resources are emitted. Global warming in year 3000 will also depend on climate sensitivity to doubling CO₂, which is most probably ∼3 ^∘C but highly uncertain. Thermal expansion will contribute 0.5–2 m to millennial sea level rise for each doubling of CO₂. The Greenland ice sheet could melt completely within the millennium under > 8×CO₂, adding a further ∼7 m to sea level. The rate of melt depends on the magnitude of forcing above a regional warming threshold of 1–3 ^∘C. The West Antarctic ice sheet could be threatened by 4–10 ^∘C local warming, and its potential contribution to millennial sea level rise exceeds current maximum estimates of ∼1 m. The fate of the ocean thermohaline circulation may depend on the rate as well as the magnitude of forcing.     

Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

Weather services base their operational definitions of “present” climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961–1990 or 1971–2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a “delta change” method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991–2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961–1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8–9 months per year and 8–9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971–2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.     

Spring Phenophases in Recent Decades Over Eastern China and Its Possible Link to Climate Changes

In light of the observed climate changes in recent decades over eastern China, we studied the changes in spring phenophases of woody plants observed at 16-stations during 1963–1996, and explored the possible link between the spring phenophases changes and climate changes before the phenophase onset. It is found that, in the region north of 33^∘N (including Northeast, North China and the lower reaches of the Huaihe River), the phenophase advanced 1.1–4.3 days per decade for early spring and 1.4–5.4 days per decade for late spring, but in the eastern part of the southwest China it was dealyed by 2.9–6.9 days per decade in early spring and 2.4–6.2 days per decade in late spring. One outstanding feature is identified in Guangzhou in south China, where significant advance of 7.5 days per decade in early spring and delay of 4.6 days per decade in late spring were detected. Statistically siginficant correlation was found between the changes of spring phenophase and the temperatures of one or several months before the phenophase onset. The relationship between the trend of phenophase change and temperature change was highly non-linear (more sensitivity to cooling than to warming) and reached an asymptote 0.5^∘C per decade, which may have implication in the responses of the ecosystem in a future global warming scenario. In addition, we also examined the link between the spring phenophase, and length and mean temperature of the growing season, and the analyses suggested that they were highly correlated as well.     

Volcanic and solar impacts on climate since 1700

 Numerical experiments have been carried out with a two-dimensional sector averaged global climate model with a detailed radiative scheme in order to assess the possible impact of solar and volcanic activities on the Earth’s surface temperature at the secular time scale from 1700 to 1992. Our results indicate that while the general trend of the observed temperature variations on the century time scale can be generated in response to both the solar and volcanic forcings, these are clearly not sufficient to explain the observed 20th century warming and more specifically the warming trend which started at the beginning of the 1970s. However, the lack of volcanism during the period 1925–1960 could account, at least partly, for the observed warming trend in this period. Finally, while Schlesinger and Ramankutty (1994) assumed that random forcing could not be a possible source of the 65–70 year oscillation they detected in the global climate system, our results indicate that the volcanic forcing over the past 150 years could have introduced an oscillation of around 70 years in the Earth’s surface temperature. Received: 25 August 1997/Accepted: 27 November 1998     

A Lagrangian Model to Predict the Modification of Near-Surface Scalar Mixing Ratios and Air–Water Exchange Fluxes in Offshore Flow

A model was developed to predict the modification with fetch in offshore flow of mixing ratio, air–water exchange flux, and near-surface vertical gradients in mixing ratio of a scalar due to air–water exchange. The model was developed for planning and interpretation of air–water exchange flux measurements in the coastal zone. The Lagrangian model applies a mass balance over the internal boundary layer (IBL) using the integral depth scale approach, previously applied to development of the nocturnal boundary layer overland. Surface fluxes and vertical profiles in the surface layer were calculated using the NOAA COARE bulk algorithm and gas transfer model (e.g., Blomquist et al. 2006, Geophys Res Lett 33:1–4). IBL height was assumed proportional to the square root of fetch, and estimates of the IBL growth rate coefficient, α, were obtained by three methods: (1) calibration of the model to a large dataset of air temperature and humidity modification over Lake Ontario in 1973, (2) atmospheric soundings from the 2004 New England Air Quality Study and (3) solution of a simplified diffusion equation and an estimate of eddy diffusivity from Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST). Reasonable agreement was obtained between the calibrated and MOST values of α for stable, neutral, and unstable conditions, and estimates of α agreed with previously published parametrizations that were valid for the stable IBL only. The parametrization of α provides estimates of IBL height, and the model estimates modification of scalar mixing ratio, fluxes, and near-surface gradients, under conditions of coastal offshore flow (0–50 km) over a wide range in stability.     

Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate–carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?

Global warming caused by anthropogenic CO₂ emissions is expected to reduce the capability of the ocean and the land biosphere to take up carbon. This will enlarge the fraction of the CO₂ emissions remaining in the atmosphere, which in turn will reinforce future climate change. Recent model studies agree in the existence of such a positive climate–carbon cycle feedback, but the estimates of its amplitude differ by an order of magnitude, which considerably increases the uncertainty in future climate projections. Therefore we discuss, in how far a particular process or component of the carbon cycle can be identified, that potentially contributes most to the positive feedback. The discussion is based on simulations with a carbon cycle model, which is embedded in the atmosphere/ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Two simulations covering the period 1860–2100 are conducted to determine the impact of global warming on the carbon cycle. Forced by historical and future carbon dioxide emissions (following the scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), they reveal a noticeable positive climate–carbon cycle feedback, which is mainly driven by the tropical land biosphere. The oceans contribute much less to the positive feedback and the temperate/boreal terrestrial biosphere induces a minor negative feedback. The contrasting behavior of the tropical and temperate/boreal land biosphere is mostly attributed to opposite trends in their net primary productivity (NPP) under global warming conditions. As these findings depend on the model employed they are compared with results derived from other climate–carbon cycle models, which participated in the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP).

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1

In order to investigate Last Glacial Maximum and future climate, we “precalibrate” the intermediate complexity model GENIE-1 by applying a rejection sampling approach to deterministic emulations of the model. We develop ~1,000 parameter sets which reproduce the main features of modern climate, but not precise observations. This allows a wide range of large-scale feedback response strengths which generally encompass the range of GCM behaviour. We build a deterministic emulator of climate sensitivity and quantify the contributions of atmospheric (±0.93°C, 1σ) vegetation (±0.32°C), ocean (±0.24°C) and sea–ice (±0.14°C) parameterisations to the total uncertainty. We then perform an LGM-constrained Bayesian calibration, incorporating data-driven priors and formally accounting for structural error. We estimate climate sensitivity as likely (66% confidence) to lie in the range 2.6–4.4°C, with a peak probability at 3.6°C. We estimate LGM cooling likely to lie in the range 5.3–7.5°C, with a peak probability at 6.2°C. In addition to estimates of global temperature change, we apply our ensembles to derive LGM and 2xCO₂ probability distributions for land carbon storage, Atlantic overturning and sea–ice coverage. Notably, under 2xCO₂ we calculate a probability of 37% that equilibrium terrestrial carbon storage is reduced from modern values, so the land sink has become a net source of atmospheric CO₂.     

Climate changes and its impact on tundra ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Alpine ecosystems in permafrost region are extremely sensitive to climate change. The headwater regions of Yangtze River and Yellow River of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau permafrost area were selected. Spatial-temporal shifts in the extent and distribution of tundra ecosystems were investigated for the period 1967–2000 by landscape ecological method and aerial photographs for 1967, and satellite remote sensing data (the Landsat’s TM) for 1986 and 2000. The relationships were analyzed between climate change and the distribution area variation of tundra ecosystems and between the permafrost change and tundra ecosystems. The responding model of tundra ecosystem to the combined effects of climate and permafrost changes was established by using statistic regression method, and the contribution of climate changes and permafrost variation to the degradation of tundra ecosystems was estimated. The regional climate exhibited a tendency towards significant warming and desiccation with the air temperature increased by 0.4–0.67°C/10a and relative stable precipitation over the last 45 years. Owing to the climate continuous warming, the intensity of surface heat source (HI) increased at the average of 0.45 W/m² per year, the difference of surface soil temperature and air temperature (DT) increased at the range of 4.1°C–4.5°C, and the 20-cm depth soil temperature within the active layer increased at the range of 1.1°C–1.4°C. The alpine meadow and alpine swamp meadow were more sensitive to permafrost changes than alpine steppe. The area of alpine swamp meadow decreased by 13.6–28.9%, while the alpine meadow area decreased by 13.5–21.3% from 1967 to 2000. The contributions of climate change to the degradation of the alpine meadow and alpine swamp was 58–68% and 59–65% between 1967 and 2000. The synergic effects of climate change and permafrost variation were the major drivers for the observed degradation in tundra ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau.     

Underestimation of the Warming Trend over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998–2013 by Global Land Data Assimilation Systems and Atmospheric Reanalyses

Accurate surface air temperature (T2m) data are key to investigating eco-hydrological responses to global warming. Because of sparse in-situ observations, T2m datasets from atmospheric reanalysis or multi-source observation-based land data assimilation system (LDAS) are widely used in research over alpine regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). It has been found that the warming rate of T2m over the TP accelerates during the global warming slowdown period of 1998–2013, which raises the question of whether the reanalysis or LDAS datasets can capture the warming feature. By evaluating two global LDASs, five global atmospheric reanalysis datasets, and a high-resolution dynamical downscaling simulation driven by one of the global reanalysis, we demonstrate that the LDASs and reanalysis datasets underestimate the warming trend over the TP by 27%–86% during 1998–2013. This is mainly caused by the underestimations of the increasing trends of surface downward radiation and nighttime total cloud amount over the southern and northern TP, respectively. Although GLDAS2.0, ERA5, and MERRA2 reduce biases of T2m simulation from their previous versions by 12%-94%, they do not show significant improvements in capturing the warming trend. The WRF dynamical downscaling dataset driven by ERA-Interim shows a great improvement, as it corrects the cooling trend in ERA-Interim to an observation-like warming trend over the southern TP. Our results indicate that more efforts are needed to reasonably simulate the warming features over the TP during the global warming slowdown period, and the WRF dynamical downscaling dataset provides more accurate T2m estimations than its driven global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for producing LDAS products over the TP.     

过去近50年全球变暖纬向平均模

Zonal mean annual temperature trends were estimated using four reanalysis and three analysis grid datasets. The trends over land and for the entire globe were estimated from 1958-2001 and 1979-2007, respectively. Estimates of temperature trends over land from Climate Research Unit (CRU) analysis data indicate more intense warming moving northward, at a rate of about 3.5ºC per century at 65ºN, then declining further to the north. CRU estimates indicated dramatic warming over the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula, with a localized cooling trend at 45ºS. A global estimate was conducted by comparing estimates of the reanalysis datasets. Temperature distribution trends of the reanalysis data were similar to those generated by land observations but with large bias in the Polar Regions. The bias could be reduced by comparing these estimates with those from the analysis data at high latitudes. Extreme warming trends were estimated at rates of 2.9ºC-3.5ºC per century in the Arctic and 3.2ºC-4.7ºC per century in the Antarctic for 1958-2001. Surface warming was even more intense in the Northern Hemisphere for 1979-2007, with extreme arctic warming rates ranging from 8.5ºC-8.9ºC per century, as estimated by the analysis and reanalysis datasets. Trends over Antarctica for this period were contradictory, as Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reanalysis (JRA-25) indicated a cooling trend at about -7ºC per century, while other reanalysis datasets showed sharp warming over the continent.     

Observed and projected climate change in Taiwan

Summary This study examined the secular climate change characteristics in Taiwan over the past 100 years and the relationship with the global climate change. Estimates for the likelihood of future climate changes in Taiwan were made based on the projection from the IPCC climate models. In the past 100 years, Taiwan experienced an island-wide warming trend (1.0–1.4 °C/100 years). Both the annual and daily temperature ranges have also increased. The warming in Taiwan is closely connected to a large-scale circulation and SAT fluctuations, such as the “cool ocean warm land” phenomenon. The water vapor pressure has increased significantly and could have resulted in a larger temperature increase in summer. The probability for the occurrence of high temperatures has increased and the result suggests that both the mean and variance in the SAT in Taiwan have changed significantly since the beginning of the 20th century. Although, as a whole, the precipitation in Taiwan has shown a tendency to increase in northern Taiwan and to decrease in southern Taiwan in the past 100 years, it exhibits a more complicated spatial pattern. The changes occur mainly in either the dry or rainy season and result in an enhanced seasonal cycle. The changes in temperature and precipitation are consistent with the weakening of the East Asian monsoon. Under consideration of both the warming effect from greenhouse gases and the cooling effect from aerosols, all projections from climate models indicated a warmer climate near Taiwan in the future. The projected increase in the area-mean temperature near Taiwan ranged from 0.9–2.7 °C relative to the 1961–1990 averaged temperature, when the CO₂ concentration increased to 1.9 times the 1961–1990 level. These simulated temperature increases were statistically significant and can be attributed to the radiative forcing associated with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The projected changes in precipitation were within the range of natural variability for all five models. There is no evidence supporting the possibility of precipitation changes near Taiwan based on the simulations from five IPCC climate models. Received February 5, 2001 Revised July 30, 2001     

Climate Change Estimates of Summer Temperature and Precipitation in the Alpine Region

Summary Climatic changes of summer temperature and precipitation in the greater Alpine region are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971–2000 and 2071–2100, summer months only) taken from the results of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are compared with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by 3 to 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Increasing precipitation is simulated only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe. The results are compared with observed climate trends for the last decades and results of other regional climate change estimations. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends (including ours) have a number of common features. However, there are also climate change estimates of other groups which completely contradict our results. Received April 8, 1999 Revised November 16, 1999     

Coping with climate variability and climate change in La Ceiba,Honduras

La Ceiba, Honduras, a city of about 200,000 people, lies along the Caribbean Sea, nestled against a mountain range and the Rio Cangrejal. The city faces three flooding risks: routine flooding of city streets due to the lack of a stormwater drainage system; occasional major flooding of the Rio Cangrejal, which flows through the city; and flooding from heavy rainfall events and storm surges associated with tropical cyclones. In this study, we applied a method developed for the U.S. Agency for International Development and then worked with stakeholders in La Ceiba to understand climate change risks and evaluate adaptation alternatives. We estimated the impacts of climate change on the current flooding risks and on efforts to mitigate the flooding problems. The climate change scenarios, which addressed sea level rise and flooding, were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates of sea level rise (Houghton et al. 2001) and published literature linking changes in temperature to more intense precipitation (Trenberth et al., Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84:1205–1217, 2003) and hurricanes (Knutson and Tuleya, J Clim, 17:3477–3495, 2004). Using information from Trenberth et al., Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84:1205–1217, (2003) and Knutson and Tuleya, J Clim, 17:3477–3495, 2004, we scaled intense precipitation and hurricane wind speed based on projected temperature increases. We estimated the volume of precipitation in intense events to increase by 2 to 4% in 2025 and by 6 to 14% by 2050. A 13% increase in intense precipitation, the high scenario for 2050, could increase peak 5-year flood flows by about 60%. Building an enhanced urban drainage system that could cope with the estimated increased flooding would cost one-third more than building a system to handle current climate conditions, but would avoid costlier reconstruction in the future. The flow of the Rio Cangrejal would increase by one-third from more intense hurricanes. The costs of raising levees to protect the population from increased risks from climate change would be about $1 million. The coast west of downtown La Ceiba is the most vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. It is relatively undeveloped, but is projected to have rapid development. Setbacks on coastal construction in that area may limit risks. The downtown coastline is also at risk and may need to be protected with groins and sand pumping. Stakeholders in La Ceiba concluded that addressing problems of urban drainage should be a top priority. They emphasized improved management of the Rio Cangrejal watershed and improved storm warnings to cope with risks from extreme precipitation and cyclones. Adoption of risk management principles and effective land use management could also help reduce risks from current climate and climate change.     

A nonlinear impulse response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS)

 Impulse-response-function (IRF) models are designed for applications requiring a large number of climate change simulations, such as multi-scenario climate impact studies or cost-benefit integrated-assessment studies. The models apply linear response theory to reproduce the characteristics of the climate response to external forcing computed with sophisticated state-of-the-art climate models like general circulation models of the physical ocean-atmosphere system and three-dimensional oceanic-plus-terrestrial carbon cycle models. Although highly computer efficient, IRF models are nonetheless capable of reproducing the full set of climate-change information generated by the complex models against which they are calibrated. While limited in principle to the linear response regime (less than about 3 ^∘C global-mean temperature change), the applicability of the IRF model presented has been extended into the nonlinear domain through explicit treatment of the climate system's dominant nonlinearities: CO₂ chemistry in ocean water, CO₂ fertilization of land biota, and sublinear radiative forcing. The resultant nonlinear impulse-response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS) computes the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of climate change for four climate variables of particular relevance for climate impact studies: near-surface temperature, cloud cover, precipitation, and sea level. The space-time response characteristics of the model are derived from an EOF analysis of a transient 850-year greenhouse warming simulation with the Hamburg atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3-LSG and a similar response experiment with the Hamburg carbon cycle model HAMOCC. The model is applied to two long-term CO₂ emission scenarios, demonstrating that the use of all currently estimated fossil fuel resources would carry the Earth's climate far beyond the range of climate change for which reliable quantitative predictions are possible today, and that even a freezing of emissions to present-day levels would cause a major global warming in the long term. Received: 28 January 2000 / Accepted: 9 March 2001     

An assessment of the potential impact of a downward shift of tropospheric water vapor on climate sensitivity

This work uses an energy balance climate model (EBCM) with explicit infrared radiative transfer, parametrized tropospheric temperature and humidity profiles, and separate stratosphere, troposphere, and surface energy balances, to investigate claims that a downward redistribution of tropospheric water vapor in response to surface warming could serve as a strong negative feedback on climatic change. A series of sensitivity tests is carried out using: (1) a variety of relationships between total precipitable water in the troposphere and temperature; (2) feedbacks between surface temperature and the vertical distribution of tropospheric water vapor at low latitudes; and (3) feedback between surface temperature or meridional temperature gradient and lapse rate. Fixed relative humidity (RH) enhances the global mean surface temperature response to a CO₂ doubling by only 50% compared to fixed absolute humidity, giving a response of 1.8 K. When water vapor is assumed to be redistributed downward between 30°S–30°N such that a 1 K surface warming reduces total precipitable water above 600 hPa by 10%, the global mean surface air temperature response is reduced to 1.2 K. Assuming a stronger downward redistribution in relation to surface temperature change has a rapidly diminishing marginal effect on global mean and tropical surface temperature response, while slightly increasing the warming at high latitudes due to the parametrized dependence of middle-to-high latitude lapse rate on the meridional temperature gradient. A modest downward water vapor redistribution, such that absolute humidity in the upper troposphere at subtropical latitudes is constant as total precipitable water increases, can reduce the tropical temperature sensitivity to less than 1 K, while increasing the equator-to-pole amplification of the surface air temperature response from a factor of about three to a factor of four. However, it is concluded that whatever changes in future GCM response might occur as a result of new parametrizations of subgrid-scale processes, they are exceedingly unlikely to produce a climate sensitivity to a CO₂ doubling of less than 1 K even if there is a strong downward shift in the water vapor distribution as climate warms. Received: 23 February 1998 / Accepted: 1 November 1999     

Empirical estimation of the annual range of monthly-mean temperatures

Summary ?This is a sequel to a study of the empirical estimation of the annual-mean temperature at any location on land, using only geographical information – latitude, elevation, distance from the nearer ocean shore at the same latitude – and coastal sea-surface temperature. Here long-term mean station data and NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) global re-analysis data are used to describe and estimate spatial patterns of annual range of monthly-mean temperatures. The two key influences on annual range are the latitude and the distance from the upwind shore. Secondary factors include mountain barriers, shape of the local topography, elevation, and vicinity to large bodies of water. An empirical relationship is derived, based on the two key factors alone, assuming zonal winds and adjustments for the effects of mountain barriers and for the proximity to a sea to the north or south. An independent test of this relationship yields errors around 1.0 K. The range estimates yield January and July average temperatures when combined with annual-mean temperatures. Such estimates also carry an uncertainty of about 1.0 K. The procedure can be inverted, i.e. knowledge of the annual mean and range can be used to infer location. Received August 23, 2001; accepted June 17, 2002     

Climate change impact on snow and soil temperature in boreal Scots pine stands

Scenarios indicate that the air temperature will increase in high latitude regions in coming decades, causing the snow covered period to shorten, the growing season to lengthen and soil temperatures to change during the winter, spring and early summer. To evaluate how a warmer climate is likely to alter the snow cover and soil temperature in Scots pine stands of varying ages in northern Sweden, climate scenarios from the Swedish regional climate modelling programme SWECLIM were used to drive a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT)-model (COUP). Using the two CO₂ emission scenarios A and B in the Hadley centres global climate model, HadleyA and HadleyB, SWECLIM predicts that the annual mean air temperature and precipitation will increase at most 4.8°C and 315 mm, respectively, within a century in the study region. The results of this analysis indicate that a warmer climate will shorten the period of persistent snow pack by 73–93 days, increase the average soil temperature by 0.9–1.5°C at 10 cm depth, advance soil warming by 15–19 days in spring and cause more soil freeze–thaw cycles by 31–38%. The results also predict that the large current variations in snow cover due to variations in tree interception and topography will be enhanced in the coming century, resulting in increased spatial variability in soil temperatures.     

Using a global climate model to evaluate the influences of water vapor, snow cover and atmospheric aerosol on warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the twenty-first century

We examine trends in climate variables and their interrelationships over the Tibetan Plateau using global climate model simulations to elucidate the mechanisms for the pattern of warming observed over the plateau during the latter half of the twentieth century and to investigate the warming trend during the twenty-first century under the SRES A1B scenario. Our analysis suggests a 4°C warming over the plateau between 1950 and 2100. The largest warming rates occur during winter and spring. For the 1961–2000 period, the simulated warming is similar to the observed trend over the plateau. Moreover, the largest warming occurs at the highest elevation sites between 1950 and 2100. We find that increases in (1) downward longwave radiation (DLR) influenced by increases in surface specific humidity (q), and (2) absorbed solar radiation (ASR) influenced by decreases in snow cover extent are, in part, the reason for a large warming trend over the plateau, particularly during winter and spring. Furthermore, elevation-based increases in DLR (influenced by q) and ASR (influenced by snow cover and atmospheric aerosols) appear to affect the elevation dependent warming trend simulated in the model.