Effect of forest recovery on summer streamflow in small forested watersheds,Northeastern China

The hydrological effect of forest recovery is receiving renewed interest globally because information on forest carbon–water relationship is critically needed to support carbon management through reforestation and sustainable water management. In Northeastern China, summer (June to August) streamflow accounts for about 50% of total annual streamflow and is vital to water supply and management in the region. Understanding how forest recovery may affect streamflow is important to both reforestation campaign and long‐term water sustainability. In this study, we analysed 33 years of summer hydrologic data (1970–2002) from two comparable small‐scale watersheds located in the Xiaoxing'anling, Northeastern China. Time series analysis and two graphic methods (double mass curve and flow duration curve) with statistical testing as well as long‐term data on forest cover changes and climate were used. Our results show that the significant streamflow reduction as a result of reforestation occurred when forest cover reached 70% or 10 years after planting. After forest cover reached 85%, water reduction became stabilized. The accumulative streamflow reduction in 2002 reached 8·61% of the total accumulative streamflow. Among those water reduced, high flows (from 5 to 25 percentiles) were mostly affected, demonstrating that northeastern forests have an important role in reducing high flows. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of climate change, reforestation and water resource management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seeing the climate through the trees: observing climate and forestry impacts on streamflow using a 60‐year record

Paired watershed experiments involving the removal or manipulation of forest cover in one of the watersheds have been conducted for more than a century to quantify the impact of forestry operations on streamflow. Because climate variability is expected to be large, forestry treatment effects would be undetectable without the treatment–control comparison. New understanding of climate variability provides an opportunity to examine whether climate variability interacts with forestry treatments, in a predictable manner. Here, we use data from the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA, to examine the impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on streamflow linked to forest harvesting. Our results show that the contrast between El Niño and La Niña events is so large that, whatever the state of the treated watershed in terms of regrowth of the forest canopy, extreme climatic variability related to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation remains the more dominant driver of streamflow response at this location. Improvements in forecasting interannual variation in climate might be used to minimize the impact of forestry treatments on streamflow by avoiding initial operations in La Niña years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land‐use and climate change in the Be River Catchment,Vietnam

In this study, we investigated the responses of hydrology and sediment yield with impacts of land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Be River Catchment, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a powerful tool for simulating the impact of environmental change on hydrology and sediment yield in this catchment. The hydrologic and sediment yield responses to land‐use and climate changes were simulated based on the calibrated model. The results indicated that a 16.3% decrease in forest land is likely to increase streamflow (0.2 to 0.4%), sediment load (1.8 to 3.0%), and surface runoff (SURQ) (4.8 to 10.7%) and to decrease groundwater discharge (GW_Q) (3.5 to 7.9%). Climate change in the catchment leads to decreases in streamflow (0.7 to 6.9%) and GW_Q (3.0 to 8.4%), increase in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 2.9%), and changes in SURQ (?5.3 to 2.3%) and sediment load (?5.3 to 4.4%). The combined impacts of land‐use and climate changes decrease streamflow (2.0 to 3.9%) and GW_Q (12.3 to 14.0%), increase evapotranspiration (0.7 to 2.8%), SURQ (8.2 to 12.4%), and sediment load (2.0 to 7.9%). In general, the separate impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow, sediment load, and water balance components are offset each other. However, SURQ and some component of subsurface flow are more sensitive to land‐use change than to climate change. Furthermore, the results emphasized water scarcity during the dry season and increased soil erosion during the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forest operations,tree species composition and decline in rainfall explain runoff changes in the Nacimiento experimental catchments,south central Chile

Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations.     

Modelling how vegetation cover affects climate change impacts on streamflow timing and magnitude in the snowmelt‐dominated upper Tuolumne Basin,Sierra Nevada

We investigated, through hydrologic modelling, the impact of the extent and density of canopy cover on streamflow timing and on the magnitude of peak and late summer flows in the upper Tuolumne basin (2600–4000 m) of the Sierra Nevada, California, under current and warmer temperatures. We used the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model for the hydrologic modelling of the basin, assuming four vegetation scenarios: current forest (partial cover, 80% density), all forest (uniform coverage, 80% density), all barren (no forest) and thinned forest (partial cover, 40% density) for a medium‐high emissions scenario causing a 3.9 °C warming over a 100‐year period (2001–2100). Significant advances in streamflow timing, quantified as the centre of mass (COM) of over 1 month were projected for all vegetation scenarios. However, the COM advances faster with increased forest coverage. For example, when forest covered the entire area, the COM occurred on average 12 days earlier compared with the current forest coverage, with the rate of advance higher by about 0.06 days year^?1 over 100 years and with peak and late summer flows lower by about 20% and 27%, respectively. Examination of modelled changes in energy balance components at forested and barren sites as temperatures rise indicated that increases in net longwave radiation are higher in the forest case and have a higher contribution to melting earlier in the calendar year when shortwave radiation is a smaller fraction of the energy budget. These increases contributed to increased midwinter melt under the forest at temperatures above freezing, causing decreases in total accumulation and higher winter and early spring melt rates. These results highlight the importance of carefully considering the combined impacts of changing forest cover and climate on downstream water supply and mountain ecosystems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential mechanistic causes of increased baseflow across northern Eurasia catchments underlain by permafrost

Warming in the Arctic is occurring at twice the rate of the global average, resulting in permafrost thaw and a restructuring of the Arctic hydrologic cycle as indicated by increased stream discharge during low-flow periods. In these cold regions, permafrost thaw is postulated to increase low-flow discharge, or baseflow, through either: (a) localized increases in groundwater storage and discharge to streams due to increased aquifer transmissivity from thickening of the freeze–thaw layer above permafrost known as the active layer or (b) long-term increases in regional groundwater circulation via enhancement of groundwater–surface water interactions due to extensive permafrost loss over decades. While increasing baseflow has been observed throughout northern Eurasia, the precise mechanistic causes remain elusive. In this study, we differentiate between where these two subsurface physical mechanisms of baseflow increase are occurring by performing a baseflow recession analysis using daily streamflow records from 1913 to 2003 for 139 stations in northern Eurasia underlain by varying permafrost areal extents. Results indicate that from 1913 to 2003, the majority of catchments underlain by continuous permafrost have an increasing trend in their recession flow intercepts, a proxy for increasing active layer thickness. Alternatively, the majority of catchments underlain by permafrost types that are less spatially extensive (e.g., discontinuous, sporadic, isolated, or no permafrost) have decreasing trends in their recession flow intercepts, indicating that a potential increase in active layer thickness is not the driving factor of baseflow variations in these catchments. This may indicate that in catchments underlain by continuous permafrost, active layer thickening correlates with increases in baseflow, whereas, in other catchments with less extensive permafrost, increases in baseflow may be caused by wholesale permafrost loss and vertical talik expansion that enhances regional groundwater circulation. The results of this work may inform our understanding of the subsurface mechanisms responsible for the changing Arctic hydrologic cycle.     

Influences of climate,terrain and land cover on stream salinity in southeastern Australia,and implications for management through reforestation

Reforestation of cleared land has the potential to reduce groundwater recharge, salt mobilization and streamflow. Stream salinity change is the net result of changes in stream salt load and streamflow. The net effect of these changes varies spatially as a function of climate, terrain and land cover. Successful natural resource management requires methods to map the spatial variability of reforestation impacts. We investigated salinity data from 2000 bores and streamflow and salinity measurements from 27 catchments in the Goulburn–Broken region in southeast Australia to assess the main factors determining stream salinity and opportunities for management through reforestation. For groundwater systems of similar geology, relationships were found between average annual rainfall and groundwater salinity and between groundwater salinity and low‐flow salinity. Despite its simplicity, we found that the steady‐state component of a simple conceptual coupled water–salt mass balance model (BC2C) adequately explained the spatial variation in streamflow and salinity. The model results suggest the efficiency of afforestation to reduce stream salinity could be increased by more than an order of magnitude through spatial planning. However, appreciable reductions in stream salinity in large rivers through land cover change alone would still require reforestation on an unprecedented scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of streamflow simulation in the Delaware River Basin to forecasted land‐cover change for 2030 and 2060

In order to simulate the potential effect of forecasted land‐cover change on streamflow and water availability, there has to be confidence that the hydrologic model used is sensitive to small changes in land cover (<10%) and that this land‐cover change exceeds the inherent uncertainty in forecasted conditions. To investigate this, a 26‐year streamflow record was simulated for 33 basins (54–928 km²) in the Delaware River Basin using three dates of land cover: the 2011 National Land‐Cover Dataset (Homer, Fry, & Barnes, 2012 ), 2030 land‐cover conditions representing median values from 101 equally‐likely forecasts, and 2060 land‐cover conditions corresponding to the same iterations used to represent 2030. Streamflow was simulated using a process‐based hydrologic model that includes both pervious and impervious methods as parameterized by three land‐cover‐based hydrologic response units (HRUs)—forested, agricultural, and developed land. Small, but significant differences in streamflow magnitude, variability, and seasonality were seen among the three time periods—2011, 2030, and 2060. Temporal differences were discernible from the range of conditions simulated with 101 equally likely forecasts for 2030. Development was co‐located with the most frequent landscape components, as characterized by topographic wetness index, resulting in a change in hydrology for each HRU, highlighting that knowing the location of disturbance is key to understanding potential streamflow changes. These results show that streamflow simulation using regional calibration that incorporates land‐cover‐based HRUs can be sensitive to relatively small changes in land‐cover and that temporal trends resulting from land‐cover change can be isolated in order to evaluate other changes that might affect water resources.     

Future land cover and climate may drive decreases in snow wind-scour and transpiration,increasing streamflow at a Colorado,USA headwater catchment

Understanding how land cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce disproportionate runoff relative to their land area. We coupled a land cover evolution model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model to simulate land cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 5.0 km² headwater catchment spanning the alpine–subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures both with greater air temperature (+4°C/century) and more precipitation (+15%/century, MP) or less precipitation (−15%/century, LP) from 2000 to 2100. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Surprisingly, increases in forest cover led to mean increases in annual streamflow production of 12 mm (6%) and 2 mm (1%) for MP and LP in 2050 with an annual control streamflow of 208 mm. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 91 mm (44%) and 61 mm (29%) for MP and LP. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area due to decreases in snow wind-scour and increases in drifting leeward of vegetation, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on the spatial pattern of snow scour, deposition and catchment effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land cover change is critically important due to the potential water resources impacts on downstream regions.     

Impact of antecedent conditions on simulations of a flood in a mountain headwater basin

A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km²). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (?3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detailed streamflow data for understanding hydrologic responses in the Logan River Observatory

The Logan River watershed, located in Northern Utah, USA, consists of a relatively pristine, mountainous area that drains to a lower elevation, valley area influenced by both urban development and agriculture. The Logan River Observatory has been collecting aquatic (streamflow and water quality) and climate data throughout the Logan River watershed since 2014. While streamflow measurements are commonly made at the outlets of research watersheds, the Logan River watershed consists of diverse hydrologic, topographic, and geologic settings that require a detailed understanding of streamflow variability over time at many locations. Here, we illustrate: (a) the importance of collecting streamflow time series throughout complex watersheds, and (b) how simple flow balances can provide much needed hydrologic insight into the locations and timing of gains and losses over reaches to guide future investigations.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of decadal to century scale glacio‐hydrological change for water resources of the Hood River basin,OR, USA

In glacier‐fed rivers, melting of glacier ice sustains streamflow during the driest times of the year, especially during drought years. Anthropogenic and ecologic systems that rely on this glacial buffering of low flows are vulnerable to glacier recession as temperatures rise. We demonstrate the evolution of glacier melt contribution in watershed hydrology over the course of a 184‐year period from 1916 to 2099 through the application of a coupled hydrological and glacier dynamics model to the Hood River basin in Northwest Oregon, USA. We performed continuous simulations of glaciological processes (mass accumulation and ablation, lateral flow of ice and heat conduction through supra‐glacial debris), which are directly linked with seasonal snow dynamics as well as other key hydrologic processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and subsurface flow). Our simulations show that historically, the contribution of glacier melt to basin water supply was up to 79% at upland water management locations. We also show that supraglacial debris cover on the Hood River glaciers modulates the rate of glacier recession and progression of dry season flow at upland stream locations with debris‐covered glaciers. Our model results indicate that dry season (July to September) discharge sourced from glacier melt started to decline early in the 21st century following glacier recession that started early in the 20th century. Changes in climate over the course of the current century will lead to 14–63% (18–78%) reductions in dry season discharge across the basin for IPCC emission pathway RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). The largest losses will be at upland drainage locations of water diversions that were dominated historically by glacier melt and seasonal snowmelt. The contribution of glacier melt varies greatly not only in space but also in time. It displays a strong decadal scale fluctuations that are super‐imposed on the effects of a long‐term climatic warming trend. This decadal variability results in reversals in trends in glacier melt, which underscore the importance of long‐time series of glacio‐hydrologic analyses for evaluating the hydrological response to glacier recession. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating hydrologic effects of spatial and temporal patterns of forest canopy change using numerical modelling

Although hydrologic responses to land cover changes are often studied using a paired watershed approach, it is not feasible to assess the hydrological effects of many different patterns of land cover alteration by empirical studies alone. An alternative is to use well validated, spatially explicit, physically based numerical models to estimate watershed storage and flux dynamics. The objectives of this study were to assess the sensitivity of watershed flow regimes to several spatial and temporal patterns of forest harvest and recovery in a snow‐dominated mountain watershed. The Distributed Hydrology Soil‐Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was parameterized using 1998–2007 climate data for the 28‐km² Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW), a headwater catchment in the inland Pacific Northwest. The modelling experiment indicated that clear‐cutting the entire watershed would increase runoff volume by 79% and 5^th percentile flows by 68%. Hydrologic recovery resulting from forest regeneration after clear‐cut harvesting is expected to take up to 25 years to return to baseline conditions, and 50 years to fully recover to preharvest conditions. A more realistic harvesting scenario where the watershed was gradually harvested in a series of clear‐cut blocks allowing for subsequent regeneration to occur was also assessed. This approach reduced the magnitude of hydrologic alteration. Analysis of several other scenarios, defined by aspect, elevation, and distance to the stream network, revealed that flow regime was more sensitive to the amount of alteration rather than pattern and landscape position of disturbance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrologic response to future land use change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin by the end of 21st century

This study demonstrates the spatial variation in hydrologic processes across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) by the end of 21st century, by ingesting FOREcasting Scenarios (FORE‐SCE) of Land‐use Change projections into a physics‐based hydrologic model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model is created for UMRB (440,000 km²), using the National Landcover Database of year 2001 and climate data of 1991–2010. Considering 1991–2010 as the baseline reference period, FORE‐SCE projections of year 2091 under three scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are separately assimilated into the calibrated model, whereas climate input is kept the same as in the baseline. Modeling results suggest an increase of 0.5% and 3.5% in the average annual streamflow at the basin outlet (Grafton, Illinois) during 2081–2100, respectively, for A1B and A2, whereas for B1, streamflow would decrease by 1.5%. Under the “worst case” A2 scenario, 6% and 133% increase, respectively, in agricultural and urban areas with 30% depletion of forest and grassland would result into 70% increase in surface runoff, 20% decrease in soil moisture, and 4% decrease in evapotranspiration in certain parts of the basin. Conversion of cropland, forest, or grassland to perennial hay/pasture areas would lower surface runoff by 25% especially in the central region, whereas persistent forest cover in the northern region would cause up to 7% increase in evapotranspiration. The ecosystem in the lower half of UMRB is likely to become adverse, as dictated by a composite water–energy balance indicator. Future land use change extents and resultant hydrologic responses are found significantly different under A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, which resonates the need for multi‐scenario ensemble assessments towards characterizing a probable future. The spatial variation of hydrologic processes as shown here helps to identify potential “hot spots,” giving ways to adopt more effective policy alternatives at regional level.     

Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama

Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany,Italy, using high‐resolution regional projections

This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy. A continuous hydrological model for each of the seven river basins within the study area was calibrated using historical data. The models were then driven by downscaled and bias‐corrected climate projections of an ensemble of 13 regional climate models (RCMs), under two different scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The impacts were examined at medium term (2031–2040) and long term (2051–2060) in comparison with a reference period (2003–2012); the changes in rainfall, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were investigated. A high degree of uncertainty characterized the results with a significant intermodel variability, the period being equal. For the sake of brevity, only the results for the Serchio River basin were presented in detail. According to the RCM ensemble mean and the RCP4.5, a moderate decrease in rainfall, with reference to 2003–2012, is expected at medium term (?0.6%) and long term (?2.8%). Due to the warming of the study area, the reduction in the streamflow volume is two times the precipitation decrease (?1.1% and ?6.8% at medium and long term, respectively). The groundwater recharge is mainly affected by the changes in climate with expected percolation volume variations of ?3.3% at 2031–2040 and ?8.1% at 2051–2060. The impacts on the Serchio River basin water resources are less significant under the RCP8.5 scenario. The presence of artificial structures, such as dam‐reservoir systems, can contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change on water resources through the implementation of appropriate regulation strategies.     

Impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in a sediment concentrated region in the Middle Yellow River

The Kuye River is the primary tributary located in the sediment concentrated regions in the Middle Yellow River in China. Significant decrease in streamflow has been observed in the Kuye River. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect the change in annual streamflow for the period of 1960 to 2006. Mean annual streamflow in the Kuye River was 84.9 mm from 1960 to 1979 (period I), while it decreased to 58.2 mm from 1980 to 1998 (period II) and 20.5 mm from 1999 to 2006 (period III), respectively. The climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method were individually employed to assess the impact of climate variability and human activities on the decrease in streamflow. The results showed that climate variability was responsible for 29.6 and 27.1 % of the streamflow decrease from the climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method, respectively; while human activities accounted for 70.4 and 72.9 % of the streamflow decrease in period II. In period III, climate variability contributed 40.9 and 39.3 % of the streamflow decrease from the climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method, respectively; while human activities accounted for 59.1 and 60.7 % of the streamflow decrease. Therefore, human activities were the main reason of the streamflow decrease. Soil conservation measures (planting trees, improving pastures, building terraces and sediment-trapping dams) and coal mining led to the streamflow reduction in the Kuye River.     

Fifty-eight years and counting of watershed science at the Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds in northern California

The Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds are the site of a long-term paired watershed study in the northern Coast Ranges of California. The watersheds are predominately forested with coast redwood and Douglas-fir. Old-growth forest was logged between 1860 and 1904. Two harvesting experiments have been completed since then and a third experiment is currently underway. Caspar Creek data are split into three phases corresponding to three experiments: Phase 1 (1962–1985) reports on a selection harvest (1971–1973) and initial recovery in the South Fork watershed; Phase 2 (1985–2017) includes clearcut harvesting of ~50% of the North Fork watershed (1985–1992) and recovery; and Phase 3 (2017 onward) corresponds to a second selection harvest in the South Fork watershed with a range of subwatershed harvest intensities (2017–2019) and recovery. All three experiments included harvest-related road-building and relied primarily on measurements of streamflow and sediment delivery from both treated and reference watersheds. Major findings include modest increases in post-harvest peak flows and cumulative flow volumes, post-harvest low flows that initially increased and then decreased 12 to 15 years after harvesting, and the consequences of different yarding techniques and road design on sediment yields. Some of the data for Phase 1 and Phase 2 are available in a USDA Forest Service online archive. The archived data include precipitation, streamflow, suspended sediment concentrations, turbidity, accumulated weir pond sediment volumes, bedload transport rates, water stable isotope data, and geospatial data. Archiving activities are ongoing. Phase 3 data are currently being collected and will be archived after a post-harvest monitoring period.     

Streamflow response to Pinus plantation harvesting: Canobolas State forest,southeastern Australia

Streamflows were measured in two Pinus radiata plantation catchments and one native eucalypt forest catchment in Canobolas State forest from 1999 to 2007. In 2002/2003, clearfall harvesting of 43·2 and 40·3% of two plantation catchments occurred, respectively. Water yields increased by 54 mm (52%), 71 mm (35%) and 50 mm (19%) in the first three years post‐harvest in treated catchment A and by 103 mm (118%), 157 mm (82%) and 119 mm (48%) in treated catchment B relative to the native forest control catchment. In the fourth post‐harvest water year annual rainfall was only 488 mm, which resulted in negligible run‐off in all catchments, regardless of forest cover. In both plantation catchments, monthly streamflows increased significantly (p = 0·01, p < 0·001) due to a significant increase in baseflows (p < 0·001) after harvesting. Monthly stormflows were not significantly affected by harvesting. Flow duration curve analyses indicated a variable response between the two plantation catchments. Treated catchment A was converted from an ephemeral stream flowing 42% of the time pre‐harvest to a temporary stream flowing 82% of the time post‐harvest. These changes occurred throughout all seasons of the year but were most pronounced during summer and autumn when baseflows were maintained post‐harvest but were not observed under native forest or mature pine plantations. By contrast, flow duration increased in treated catchment B from 12% of the time pre‐harvest to 38% of the time post‐harvest with the greatest changes measured during the winter and spring months when streamflow would normally occur under native forest conditions. These observations have important implications for the development of models of plantation water use to be utilized in water resource planning in Australia. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.