Assessing the effects of the Three Gorges Dam and upstream inflow change on the downstream flow regime during different operation periods of the dam

As the largest hydroelectric dam in the world, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has raised wide concerns over the environmental and ecological impacts since its dramatic effect on the downstream flow regime of the Yangtze River. Since 2003, the TGD has progressed from the initial operation period to the full operation period, with different effects on the downstream flow regime over each period. Although the upstream inflow change (USIC) of the TGD is a possibly additional factor affecting the downstream flow regime, this has drawn little attention. This study aims to quantify the individual contributions of the TGD and the USIC to the changes of the downstream flow regime over different operation periods of the dam. Using the Muskingum routing model and the Xin'anjiang rainfall–run‐off model, we reconstruct the discharge unregulated by the TGD for the post‐TGD period from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, the effects of the TGD and the USIC on the downstream flow regime are quantitatively assessed. Benchmarked against the flow regime during the pre‐TGD period from 1955 to 2002, it is found that the TGD and the USIC play considerable and comparable roles in affecting the downstream flow regime during the whole post‐TGD period from 2003 to 2015. Furthermore, the TGD appears to have a limited effect on the downstream flow regime during the initial operation period from 2003 to 2008 relative to the USIC. In contrast, during the full operation period from 2009 to 2015, the TGD plays a dominant role in changing the downstream flow regime, although the effect of the USIC cannot be neglected. The findings of this study are helpful to understand the exact impacts of the TGD on the downstream flow regime, thereby facilitating the development of a rational strategy for operating the dam.     

Distribution of erosion intensity in the Jingjiang reach influenced by the Three Gorges Dam

Elucidation of the fluvial processes influenced by dams provides better understanding of river protection and basin management. However, less attention has been given to the erosion intensity distribution of riverbeds and its association with channel morphology and hydrological conditions. Based on hydrological and topographic data, the spatial and temporal distributions of erosion intensity (2002–2014) influenced by the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) were analyzed for the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River. The mechanisms underlying the distribution of erosion intensity in response to hydrological conditions were investigated. The results are as follows: (1) The erosion intensities of different discharges were not uniform, and moderate flow (10 000–27 000 m³/s) produced the largest erosion magnitude among all flow ranges. Owing to the hydrological changes caused by flood reduction and prolongation of moderate flow duration after the TGD began operating, up to 70% of the erosion amount was caused by moderate flows. (2) The lateral distribution of erosion intensity was extremely uneven, as the proportion of cumulative erosion of the low‐flow channel within the bankfull channel reached 88% in 2013. This caused the channel to become narrower and deeper. (3) The longitudinal distribution of erosion intensity was inhomogeneous. The erosion intensity in the wide reaches was greater than that in the narrow reaches, leading to smaller differences in channel morphology along the river. (4) Changes in hydrological conditions influenced by the TGD, significant reduction of sediment concentration along with flood abatement, and increased duration of moderate flow discharges were the main factors affecting erosion distribution in the post‐dam period. Our conclusions can be applied to the Yangtze River as a basis for riverbed change estimations, and river management strategies. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of the flow regime alterations in the middle reach of the Yangtze River associated with dam construction: potential ecological implications

Hydrological regimes strongly influence the biotic diversity of river ecosystems by structuring physical habitat within river channels and on floodplains. Modification of hydrological regimes by dam construction can have important consequences for river ecosystems. This study examines the impacts of the construction of two dams, the Gezhouba Dam and the Three Gorges Dam, on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River in China. Analysis of hydrological change before and after dam construction is investigated by evaluating changes in the medians and ranges of variability of 33 hydrological parameters. Results show that the hydrological impact of the Gezhouba Dam is relatively small, affecting mainly the medians and variability of low flows, the rate of rise, and the number of hydrological reversals. The closure of the Three Gorges Dam has substantially altered the downstream flow regime, affecting the seasonal distribution of flows, the variability of flows, the magnitude of minimum flows, low‐flow pulses, the rate of rise, and hydrological reversals. These changes in flow regime have greatly influenced the aquatic biodiversity and fish community structure within the Yangtze River. In particular, populations of migratory fish have been negatively impacted. The results help to identify the magnitudes of hydrological alteration associated with the construction of dams on this important large river and also provide useful information to guide strategies aimed at restoration of the river's ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework approach to address the trend and causes of flood stage change in a river reach downstream of a dam influenced by tributaries

The evaluation of the trend of flood stage changes in alluvial rivers downstream of dams is important for flood management. However, the flood stage associated with a given discharge generally is nonstationary in river reaches with multiple tributaries. This is not only because of the dam-induced shifting in the cross-sectional area and/or channel roughness but also because of the backwater induced by high flows from the tributaries. To determine the total trend of the flood stage and quantify the separate contributions of hydrological and geomorphic effects, the current study proposed a framework approach consisting of hydrological analysis and multiscenario numerical modeling. By this means, the trend in the flood stage could be distinguished from the stage oscillation driven by varying factors, including extreme hydrologic events. The effects of chronic changes, including channel incision and flow resistance increase, also were quantitatively separated. This framework was applied to the Chenglingji–Datong (CD) reach downstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) in the Yangtze River, China. The results indicated that the effect of the roughness increase counterbalanced the effect of channel incision when the flow discharge was beyond the bankfull level. The backwater effect induced by tributary inflow was the major cause of the flood stage rise in recent years. The method presented in the current study provides a useful tool for managers and engineers to obtain better insight into the driving mechanisms of flood stage changes in river reaches that are downstream of dams. These findings indicate that the flood stage may not decline or may even occasionally increase, although the cross-sectional area was enlarged by channel incision. Special attention should be given to the flood risk situation in the study reach after the TGD began operation.     

Bivariate frequency analysis of nonstationary low‐flow series based on the time‐varying copula

Many studies have analysed the nonstationarity in single hydrological variables due to changing environments. Yet, few researches have been done to investigate how the dependence structure between different individual hydrological variables is affected by changing environments. To investigate how the reservoirs have altered the dependence structure between river flows at different locations on the Hanjiang River, a time‐varying copula model, which takes the nonstationarity in the marginal distribution and/or the time variation in dependence structure between different hydrological series into consideration, is presented in this paper to perform a bivariate frequency analysis for the low‐flow series from two neighbouring hydrological gauges. The time‐varying moments model with either time or reservoir index as explanatory variables is applied to build the time‐varying marginal distributions of the two low‐flow series. It's found that both marginal distributions are nonstationary, and the reservoir index yields better performance than the time index in describing the nonstationarities in the marginal distributions. Then, the copula with the dependence parameter expressed as a function of either time or reservoir index is applied to model the variable dependence between the two low‐flow series. The copula with reservoir index as the explanatory variable of the dependence parameter has a better fitting performance than the copula with the constant or the time‐trend dependence parameter. Finally, the effect of the time variation in the joint distribution on three different types of joint return periods (i.e. AND, OR and Kendall) of low flows at two neighbouring hydrological gauges is presented. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A revised range of variability approach considering the periodicity of hydrological indicators

Comprehensively assessing the hydrological alteration of river flows is a prerequisite for the scientific management, protection, and restoration of rivers. The range of variability approach (RVA), which is based on indicators of hydrological alteration (IHAs), is a widely used method to evaluate hydrological alteration. However, the RVA only considers the frequency of each IHA, neglecting the equally important temporal order of these IHAs. The order of IHA event can be reflected by its periodicity. On the basis of the RVA, in this study, we propose a revised RVA that considers both the frequency and periodicity of IHAs. In the revised RVA, first, the periodic time of each IHA is identified; next, the periodicity alteration (P) of river flow is calculated by comparing the periodic times of the pre‐impact‐period and post‐impact‐period IHAs; finally, P and the frequency alteration(D) in traditional RVA are incorporated into a single index (H) to reflect the overall hydrological alteration. A case study of the Xi Dayang (XDY) Reservoir and rearranged flow suggests that the traditional RVA underestimates hydrological alterations because it neglects the alteration of periodicity. Compared with the traditional RVA and its alternatives, the revised RVA could give a more comprehensive representation of hydrological alteration caused by human and nature impacts. Thus, better protection of an ecosystem could be obtained by applying this method in the evaluation and management of water resources. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Should the Three Gorges Dam be blamed for the extremely low water levels in the middle–lower Yangtze River?

Extremely low water level events have frequently occurred in the middle–lower Yangtze River (MLYR) in recent years (2006–2011). Most of these drought events coincided with the initial operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). The TGD was therefore the focus of controversy about the causes of the hydrological droughts of the rivers and lakes of the region. We quantified the effects of the TGD's operation on water levels from 2006 to 2011 using a newly developed hydrodynamic model. The operation of the TGD significantly exacerbated the severe hydrological droughts that occurred in late September to November because of water impoundment, but it increased water levels from April to early June in the MLYR because of the drawdown of TGD water levels. Evidence suggests that the recent extremely low water levels were mainly because of the remarkable decline in inflows to the MLYR resulting from precipitation changes and possible human activities. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the effects of the TGD on downstream rivers and lakes will be intensified in the foreseeable future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of the Three Gorges Reservoir on the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang station during 2003–2011

Since the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was put into operation in June 2003, the effects of the TGR on downstream hydrology and water resources have become the focus of public attention. This article examines the effects of the TGR on the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang hydrological station during 2003–2011. The two‐parameter monthly water balance model was used to generate the monthly discharges at the Yichang station for the period of 2003–2011 to represent the unregulated flow regime and thus to provide a comparison benchmark for the observed flow series at the Yichang station after the operation of the TGR. To provide a reference series for the observed monthly discharge series of the entire study period of 1951–2011, we constructed the naturalized monthly discharge series at the Yichang station by joining the observed monthly discharge at the Yichang station for the period of 1951–2002 and the two‐parameter monthly water balance simulated monthly runoff at the Yichang station for the period of 2003–2011. For both the observed and naturalized monthly discharge series of 1951–2011, the hydrological drought index series were calculated using the standardized streamflow index method. By comparing the drought indices of these two monthly discharge series, we investigated the effects of the TGR on the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang station during 2003–2011. The results show that the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang station are slightly aggravated by the TGR's initial operation from 2003 to 2011. The river flow reduction at the Yichang station after impoundment of the TGR might account for the downstream drought aggravation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling and assessment of hydrological changes in a developing urban catchment

Urbanization strongly changes natural catchment by increasing impervious coverage and by creating a need for efficient drainage systems. Such land cover changes lead to more rapid hydrological response to storms and change distribution of peak and low flows. This study aims to explore and assess how gradual hydrological changes occur during urban development from rural area to a medium‐density residential catchment. The Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) is utilized to simulate a series of scenarios in a same developing urban catchment. Sub‐hourly hydro‐meteorological data in warm season is used to calibrate and validate the model in the fully developed catchment in 2006. The validated model is then applied to other cases in development stage and runoff management scenarios. Based on the simulations and observations, three key problems are solved: (1) how catchment hydrology changes with land cover change, (2) how urban development changes pre‐development flows, and (3) how stormwater management techniques affect catchment hydrology. The results show that the low‐frequency flow rates had remarkably increased from 2004 to 2006 along with the increase of impervious areas. Urbanization in the residential catchment expands the runoff contributing area, accelerates hydrological response, raises peak flows in an order of magnitude of over 10, and more than doubles the total runoff volume. The effects of several LID controls on runoff hydrograph were simulated, and the techniques were able to reduce flows towards the pre‐development levels. However, the partly restored flow regime was still clearly changed in comparison to the pre‐development flow conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

典型枯水年长江干流硅的分布、输送与滞留

于特枯水情年对三峡水库溶解硅和长江干流自涪陵至河口段悬浮颗粒物、溶解硅、生物硅和叶绿素a浓度等进行调查.研究表明,在平水期和汛期末,长江干流水体溶解硅和生物硅浓度和通量在其上游受大坝"滞留"效应的影响呈现沿程降低的趋势,中、下游受"两湖"和汉江等的补充作用有明显升高.在枯水年,长江干流水体生物硅浓度占活性硅(溶解硅和生物硅之和)浓度的2%~5%,显著低于平水年的比例(13%),同时也低于世界河流的平均水平(16%).三峡水库在4-12月份减少溶解硅向下游的输送通量,而在1-3月份增加溶解硅的输送通量;水库在枯水年滞留了大约3%~6%的溶解硅.三峡水库内低的初级生产水平和高的生物硅再生速率是其难以对溶解硅形成有效滞留的主要因素.大坝下游会因清水下泄产生潜在的滞留效应,不过还需要更多的数据去量化.     

Investigation of inner-basin variation: Impact of large reservoirs on water regimes of downstream water bodies

Large dams and reservoirs alter not only the natural flow regimes of streams and rivers but also their flooding cycles and flood magnitudes. Although the effect of dams and reservoirs has been reported for some vulnerable locations, the understanding of the inner-basin variation with respect to the effects remains limited. In this study, we analyse the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) built on the Changjiang mainstream (Yangtze River) to investigate the dam effect variations in the system of interconnected water bodies located downstream. We investigated the effect of flow alterations along the downstream river network using discharge time series at different gauging stations. The river–lake interactions (referring to the interactions between the Changjiang mainstream and its tributary lakes i.e. the Dongting and Poyang lakes) and their roles in modifying the TGD effect intensity were also investigated in the large-scale river–lake system. The results show that the water storage of the tributary lakes decreased after the activation of the TGD. Severe droughts occurred in the lakes, weakening their ability to recharge the Changjiang mainstream. As a consequence, the effect of the TGD on the Changjiang flow increase during the dry season diminished quickly downstream of the dam, whereas its impact on the flow decrease during the wet season gradually exacerbated along the mainstream, especially at sites located downstream of the lake outlets. Therefore, when assessing dam-induced hydrological changes, special attention should be paid to the changes in the storage of tributary lakes and the associated effects in the mainstream. This is of high importance for managing the water resource trade-offs between different water bodies in dam-affected riverine systems.     

A spatial assessment of hydrologic alteration caused by dam construction in the middle and lower Yellow River,China

The ‘range of variability approach’ (RVA) and mapping technique are used to investigate the spatial variability of hydrologic alterations (HA) due to dam construction along the middle and lower Yellow River, China, over the past five decades. The impacts of climate variability on hydrological process have been removed during wet and dry periods and the focus is on the impacts of human activities, such as dam construction, on hydrological processes. Results indicate the following: (1) The impacts of the Sanmenxia reservoir on the hydrologic alteration are relatively slight with a mean HA value of 0·48, ranking in the last place among the four large reservoirs. (2) Xiaolangdi reservoir has significantly changed the natural flow regime downstream with mean HA value of 0·56, ranking it in first place among the large reservoirs. (3) The results of ranked median degrees of 33 hydrologic alteration indicators for 10 stations in the Yellow River show that the hydrologic alteration of Huayuankou ranks the highest among 10 stream gauges. (4) Impacts of reservoirs on hydrological processes downstream of the dams are closely associated with the regulating activities of the reservoirs. At the same time, alterations of streamflow regimes resulting from climatic changes (e.g. precipitation variability) make the situation more complicated and more hydrological observations will be necessary for further analysis. The results of the current study will be greatly beneficial to the regional water resources management and restoration of eco‐environmental systems in the middle and lower Yellow River characterized by intensified dam construction under a changing environment. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-objective autocalibration of SWAT model for improved low flow performance for a small snowfed catchment

ABSTRACT

A reliable modelling framework needs to ensure that the model is simulating reality with limited uncertainty, thus enhancing its predictive ability. In the literature, hydrological model assessment using one or more metrics is reported to be inadequate when the river flow regime is required to be reproduced comprehensively. This research is aimed to: (a) calibrate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) based on the concept of multi-objective optimization by applying the Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA); (b) apply hydrological signatures as objective functions; and (c) adopt a multi-metric approach for model evaluation. The SWAT model was coupled with a relatively newer and powerful Borg MOEA. The inclusion of hydrological signatures as objective functions along with the conventional statistical functions assisted in improving the performance for low flows by 135% in terms of volume efficiency and 65% for flow time series simulation.     

Discrete principal‐monotonicity inference for hydro‐system analysis under irregular nonlinearities,data uncertainties,and multivariate dependencies. Part II: Application to streamflow simulation in the Xingshan Watershed,China

Provision of reliable scientific support to socio‐economic development and eco‐environmental conservation is challenged by complexities of irregular nonlinearities, data uncertainties, and multivariate dependencies of hydrological systems in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region, China. Among them, the irregular nonlinearities mainly represent unreliability of regular functions for robust simulation of highly complicated relationships between variables. Based on the proposed discrete principal‐monotonicity inference (DPMI) approach, streamflow generation in the Xingshan Watershed, a representative watershed in this region, is examined. Based on system characterization, predictor identification, and streamflow distribution transformation, DPMI parameters are calibrated through a two‐stage strategy. Results indicate that the modelling efficiency of DPMI is satisfactory for streamflow simulation under these complexities. The distribution transformation method and the two‐stage calibration strategy can deal with non‐normality of streamflow and temporally unstable accuracy of hydrological models, respectively. The DPMI process and results reveal that both streamflow uncertainty and its rising tendency increase with flow levels. The dominant driving forces of streamflow generation are daily lowest temperature and daily cumulative precipitation in consideration of performances in global and local scales. The temporal heterogeneity of local significances to streamflow is insignificant for meteorological conditions. There is significant nonlinearity between meteorological conditions and streamflow and dependencies among meteorological conditions. The generation mechanism of low flows is more complicated than medium flows and high flows. The DPMI approach can facilitate improving robustness of hydro‐system analysis studies in the Xingshan Watershed or the TGR region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow dynamics at the continental scale: Streamflow correlation and hydrological similarity

Streamflow variability in space and time critically affects anthropic water uses and ecosystem services. Unfortunately, spatiotemporal patterns of flow regimes are often unknown, as discharge measurements are usually recorded at a limited number of hydrometric stations unevenly distributed along river networks. Advances in understanding the physical processes that control the spatial patterns of river flows are therefore necessary to predict water availability at ungauged locations or to extrapolate pointwise streamflow observations. This work explores the use of the spatial correlation of river flows as a metric to quantify the similarity between hydrological responses of two catchments. Following a stochastic framework, 340,000 cross‐correlations between pairs of daily streamflows time series are predicted at a seasonal timescale across the contiguous United States using 413 catchments of the MOPEX dataset. Model predictions of streamflow correlation obtained in absence of run‐off information are successfully used to identify catchment outlets sharing similar discharge dynamics and flow regimes across a broad range of geomorphoclimatic conditions, without relying on calibration. The selection of reference streamgauges based on predicted streamflow correlation generally outperforms the selection based on spatial proximity, especially as the density of available gauged sections decreases. Interestingly, correlated outlets share a broad spectrum of hydrological signatures (mean discharge, flow variability, and recession properties), suggesting that catchments forced by analogous frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events might exhibit common geomorphoecological traits leading to similar hydrological responses. The proposed framework provides a physical basis to assist the regionalization of flow dynamics and to interpret the spatial variability of flow regimes along stream networks.     

The identification of hydrological indices for the characterization of macroinvertebrate community response to flow regime variability

Abstract

The importance of flow regime variability for maintaining ecological functioning and integrity of river ecosystems has been firmly established in both natural and anthropogenically modified systems. River flow regimes across lowland catchments in eastern England are examined using 47 variables, including those derived using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) software. A principal component analysis method was used to identify redundant hydrological variables and those that best characterized the hydrological series (1986–2005). A small number of variables (<6) characterized up to 95% of the statistical variability in the flow series. The hydrological processes and conditions that the variables represent were found to be significant in structuring the in-stream macroinvertebrate community Lotic-invertebrate Index for Flow Evaluation (LIFE) scores at both the family and species levels. However, hydrological variables only account for a relatively small proportion of the total ecological variability (typically <10%). The research indicates that a range of other factors, including channel morphology and anthropogenic modification of in-stream habitats, structure riverine macroinvertebrate communities in addition to hydrology. These factors need to be considered in future environmental flow studies to enable the characterization of baseline/reference conditions for management and restoration purposes.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Worrall, T.P., Dunbar, M.J., Extence, C.A., Laizé, C.L.R., Monk, W.A., and Wood, P.J., 2014. The identification of hydrological indices for the characterization of macroinvertebrate community response to flow regime variability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 645–658.     

Hydrological characterization of dammed rivers in the NW Mediterranean region

Water scarcity and climatic variability in the Mediterranean region have traditionally required the construction of dams to guarantee water supply for irrigation, industrial and urban uses and hydropower production. Reservoirs affect the hydrology of the river downstream, but the magnitude and persistence of these effects are still poorly unknown. Understanding the magnitude of these effects is the objective of this paper, in which we analyse the flow regimes of twelve rivers located in the NW Mediterranean region. Different temporal scales (daily, monthly and annual) are used for the analysis and also to estimate flow variables associated with flow magnitude, frequency, duration and variability. It is shown that dams alter the hydrological regime of most of the studied rivers, with special influence on monthly flows and flood magnitude and frequency. The most altered rivers (Muga and Siurana, NE Iberian Peninsula) experience a complete overturn in their flow regime with, for instance, flood reduction reaching up to 76% for the 2‐year flood event. Other rivers showed lower changes in hydrology (e.g. Orb and Têt). Annual runoff showed a pattern of decrease in all the studied rivers (regulated and non‐regulated) indicating that besides dams (i.e. reservoir evaporation), other factors likely affect water yield. A general recovery downstream from dams is also observed at all temporal scales, mainly because of the inflow from tributaries. Although dams have a clear impact on the hydrology of Mediterranean rivers, water withdrawals and diversions for irrigation and other consumptive uses also affected the hydrological patterns. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of Three Gorges Dam on streamflow and sediment load of the middle Yangtze River, China

Using updated hydrological datasets from three stations, including Cuntan, Yichang and Hankou, covering the period of January 1992–December 2008, the influence of Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on streamflow and sediment load of the Yangtze River was investigated. Results indicated that TGD did not seem to exert a significant influence on streamflow occurring at three stations and changes in streamflow can be mainly attributed to streamflows of tributaries. However, a sharp decrease in the sediment load after the impoundment of TGD was observed. Clear water after the impoundment caused erosion of riverbed and resulted in more sediment at the Hankou station than at the Yichang station. No distinct changes in the annual and monthly maximum sediment loads were observed before and after the impoundment. Therefore, annual and monthly maximum sediment load changes should be subjected mainly to river hydraulics. This study has practical relevance for understanding the influence of large hydraulic structures on the hydrological processes of large rivers.     

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of streamflow series of the Yangtze River basin,China

Scaling and multifractal properties of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin were explored by using a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF‐DFA) technique. Long daily mean streamflow series from Cuntan, Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analyzed. Using shuffled streamflow series, the types of multifractality of streamflow series was also studied. The results indicate that the discharge series of the Yangtze River basin are non‐stationary. Different correlation properties were identified within streamflow series of the upper, the middle and the lower Yangtze River basin. The discharge series of the upper Yangtze River basin are characterized by short memory or anti‐persistence; while the streamflow series of the lower Yangtze River basin is characterized by long memory or persistence. h(q) vs q curves indicate multifractality of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin. h(q) curves of shuffled streamflow series suggest that the multifractality of the streamflow series is mainly due to the correlation properties within the hydrological series. This study may be of practical and scientific importance in regional flood frequency analysis and water resource management in different parts of the Yangtze River basin. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of climate changes and water‐related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang river basin in arid north‐west China

The change of annual stream flow in the Shiyang river basin, a typical arid‐inland basin in north‐west China, was investigated using hydrological, meteorological and water‐related human activities' data of the past 50 years. The long‐term trends of the hydrological time series were examined by non‐parametric techniques, including the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests. Double cumulative curves and multi‐regression methods were used to separate and quantify the effects of climate changes and human activities on the stream flows. The results show that the study area has been experiencing a significant upward warming trend since 1986 and precipitation shows a decreasing trend in the mountainous region but an increasing trend in the plains region. All stream flows in the upper reach and lower reaches of the Shiyang river exhibit decreasing tendencies. Since 1970, human activities, such as irrigation, have had a significant effect on the upstream flow, and account for 60% of total flow decreases in the 1970s. However, climate changes are the main reason for the observed flow decreases in the 1980s and 1990s, with contributions to total flow decrease of 68% and 63%, respectively. Before 1975, flow decreases in the upper reaches were the main factor causing reduced flows in the lower reaches of the Shiyang river. After 1975, the effect of human activities became more pronounced, with contributions of 63%, 68% and 56% to total flow decreases in the lower reaches of the Shiyang river in the periods 1975 to 1980, 1980s and 1990s, respectively. As a result, climate change is responsible for a large proportion of the flow decreases in the upstream section of the catchment during the 1980s and 1990s, while human activities have caused flow decreases downstream during the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.