朝鲜地下核试验的地震学观测

自2006年至2017年,朝鲜民主主义人民共和国在中朝边界地区的试验场进行了6次地下核试验.本文综合报道根据东北亚地区的宽频带数字地震资料利用地震学方法对这六次地下核爆炸的研究.结果表明,朝鲜地下核试验在区域台网产生的地震记录具有典型浅源爆炸的特征.针对上述资料发展了处理核爆数据的方法并据此得出各次朝鲜核爆的地震学参数,包括事件识别、当量测定、以及震中相对定位等.对6次核爆和4次天然地震P/S类型谱振幅比的统计分析表明,2 Hz以上台网平均谱振幅比可以正确地将朝鲜核爆从天然地震中识别出来,从而有效监测在朝鲜半岛进行的当量大于0.5 kt的地下核试验.同时也发现,建立在体波-面波震级比之上的识别方法不适用于朝鲜核试验场.通过建立中朝边界地区基于Lg波的体波震级系统,计算了各次朝鲜核试验的体波震级m_b（Lg）,并由此估计了它们的地震学当量,其值介于0.5 kt至60 kt之间.由于缺少爆炸埋藏深度的数据,上述当量有可能被低估,因而有必要对深度影响做进一步研究.以第一次爆炸的位置为参考震中,利用Pn波相对走时数据和高精度相对定位方法获得了各次核爆在试验场中的精确定位.     

朝鲜核爆的Rayleigh波震级测量

利用1995年至2009年中国东北及邻近地区11个宽频带台站记录到的77个地震事件、3个化学爆炸和2次朝鲜核爆的区域地震资料,标定该区域台网的Rayleigh波震级.通过对8~25 s 周期的垂直分量Rayleigh波形进行分析,获取基于最大振幅的面波震级.计算82个区域事件不同周期的台基响应,经过台基校正后取最大振幅的面波震级为事件震级.2006年和2009年两次朝鲜核爆的面波震级分别为2.93±0.19和3.62±0.21.将地震和核爆事件的面波震级M_s与体波震级m_b(Lg)进行比较,发现根据该区域台网的数据利用M_s-m_b识别方法无法鉴别朝鲜地区的核爆与地震.朝鲜核爆的面波震级相对较大,使M_s-m_b识别方法失效,其原因可能是源区介质的不均匀性、由核爆炸冲击引发的深部的拉伸破坏被抑制,或者是近爆源区存在张性的构造预应力.假定核爆可能的埋藏深度范围是0.01~1.0 km,用Rayleigh波震级估计朝鲜核爆的当量,对2006年和2009年核爆当量的估值范围分别为0.42~3.17 kt和2.06~15.53 kt.     

朝鲜2009年和2013年两次核爆的地震学特征对比研究

利用布设在长白山地区临时地震台站接收到的朝鲜核爆的波形资料,对2009年5月25日和2013年2月12日两次朝鲜核试验的地震学特征进行比较.震中距范围从145km到420km.采用P/S型谱比值方法识别朝鲜核爆,通过与2009年3月20日长春地震和2013年1月23日沈阳地震事件的比较,表明在频率大于3 Hz时P/S型谱比值能够有效识别发生在中朝边境地区的地下核试验.选定参考台站,利用区域震相Pg波的振幅谱比值计算朝鲜核爆至各台站路径上的相对衰减.结合介质速度模型,在一定程度上反映了长白山地区衰减情况,为进一步研究长白山地区衰减层析成像提供初始模型.     

朝鲜半岛两次核爆的识别

2006年10月9日10点35分和2009年5月25日8点54分朝鲜先后进行了两次核试验,震级分别为ML3.5和ML4.9.利用辽宁数字地震台网和丹东区域台网记录的朝鲜两次核爆的波形事件,采用波形特征对比、多阶小波细节分析以及S波拐角频率计算方法,对核爆进行识别与判定.     

利用相对静力学强度测定1998年5月11日印度核爆的当量

核爆当量是核试验的重要参数之一. 许多地震学家对1998年5月11日在印度Pokhran地区的核试验(POK2)进行研究,给出了(12～60)kt的当量估计,近5倍的估计偏差引起了较为广泛的关注. 基于全球数字地震台网宽频带体波资料,我们通过波形反演计算等效震源模型参数,包括静力学强度ψ∞、特征频率k、以及震源深度h和P波在自由表面的反射系数rpp,并利用相对的静力学强度估算了POK2事件的当量. 我们发现Lay［1］在美国Nevada试验场(NTS)获得的相对静力学强度与当量的经验公式更适合印度核试验当量估计,并据此计算了这次试验的当量约36kt. 这一结果支持1998年5月11日印度核试验的总当量低于60kt的观点.     

东哈萨克核爆炸产生的远震P波尾波中Rg散射成P波的证据

两个地震台阵记录的Degelen和Shagan河(东哈萨克)地下核爆炸产生的远震数据的分析表明,低频振幅比P/P尾波随爆炸源深度而明显变化。这组数据包括NORSAR和EKA台阵分别记录的22次Degelen爆炸数据(包括8个已公布爆炸点深度的数据)和40次Shagan河爆炸数据。根据这些台阵数据用最小二乘反演,分离震源项和接收项,推导的结果不受记录场地效应的影响。也比较了不同深度的相邻爆炸点的P波和P尾波,得到的结果几乎与传播路径效应无关。观测到对深度依赖的可能解释是由于震源区的不均匀性,爆炸激发产生的Rg散射成P波是远震P波的主要来源。观测的P尾波持续时间表明散射可能发生在浅地壳的大区域,因此,可将尾波的稳定性当作爆炸当量的估计量。对地下核爆炸产生的远震P尾波形成的了解可以提供包括爆炸点深度在内的有用的震源信息。     

对朝鲜2006年、2009年和2013年3次地下核试验的相对定位

采用双差定位方法, 对朝鲜2006年、2009年和2013年的3次核试验进行相对定位.根据19个区域地震台和8个远震台的垂直分量波形资料, 计算了多种震相(P波、S波和LR波等)的互相关时差, 并由测量时差反演两两核爆的相对空间位置, 通过随机生成部分台站组合进行扰动实验以估算定位的不确定度.结果表明, 相对于朝鲜2009年核试验, 2013年核试验位于其南257 m、西385 m, 2006年核试验位于其南503 m、东2589 m.当扰动实验中随机选取的台站数目为20个时, 在95%置信度下, 朝鲜2013年和2006年核试验相对于2009年核试验的地表定位结果的不确定度约为150 m.      

朝鲜核试验相关地震学研究进展及其文献计量学分析

朝鲜自2006年10月9日第一次开展地下核试验以来,分别于2009年5月25日、2013年2月12日、2016年1月6日、2016年9月9日和2017年9月3日相继进行了5次规模较大的核试验.由于核爆炸和天然地震的震源机制不同,可以通过核爆炸产生的地震波来进行核试验的监测,核试验相关地震学研究一直是国内外专家关注的焦点.本文分别从事件定位、性质识别、当量和埋藏深度等几个方面总结了近些年来朝鲜核试验相关地震学的研究进展,并基于文献计量学方法对朝鲜核试验相关地震学研究现状进行分析,综合结果表明,近些年基于朝鲜核试验的相关地震学研究的主要研究方向为核试验定位、当量估算以及震源深度等.     

太原基准地震台核爆震相识别

对太原基准地震台记录的核爆及天然地震波形进行对比分析,结果显示：①与天然地震相比,核爆震相特征相对独特;②地震优势频率较窄,而核爆优势频率则较宽,即对于震中距相近、当量不同的核爆波形,太原台记录的时频变化特征相似;③对于震中距相近的天然地震与核爆波形,太原台记录的时频特征差异明显。     

sPL,一个近距离确定震源深度的震相

实际地震波形观测表明,对于大陆结构相对简单的地壳中的地震而言,有一震相出现在P 波和S波之间.一般在30~50 km附近发育得较好,其能量主要集中在径向分量,而垂向分量的振幅相对径向要小,切向分量上的振幅很弱,且波形以低频为主,通常没有P波尖锐.在利用FK方法计算合成地震图的基础上,发现该震相是由S波入射到自由地表形成水平传播的P波(文献称为surface P wave,自由地表P波)或者包括S波入射到地表后形成的多次P波或其散射震相.由于该震相是由S波和P波之间耦合而形成,本文将其定义为sPL(s coupled into P) 震相.理论波形研究表明,sPL相对直达P波的到时差对震中距离不敏感,而随着震源深度的增加几乎呈线性增加,因此可以很好的约束震源深度.本文以2005年江西九江地震为例,证实了sPL确定震源深度的可行性和可靠性.在观测到sPL震相的情况下,离震源50 km以内的一个三分量地震台站的波形就可以帮助获得可靠的震源深度,而不需要精确的震中距离.由于sPL震相出现距离较近,对于较小(三级以上)的地震也可以应用,因此在稀疏台网布局情形下sPL对于确定中小地震深度应该具有很好的应用意义.     

Seismic discrimination of the 2009 North Korean nuclear explosion based on regional source spectra

Seismic discrimination of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) based on regional waveforms in continental margins is challenging due to large variations among waveforms. The 2009 North Korean UNE test was conducted in the far eastern Eurasian plate. The UNE was recorded by densely-located regional seismic stations, and regional waveforms exhibit highly path-dependent amplitude and arrival time features due to complex crustal structures. Regional source spectra are calculated by correcting for the path effects on the waveforms. A two-step approach is proposed for stable inversion of source-spectral parameters and path parameters. Characteristic overshoot features are observed in the source spectra, particularly strong in Pn. The path parameter, Q, is determined uniquely regardless of the source-spectral model implemented, which suggests stable separation of path effects from waveform records. The estimated source spectra fit well to a theoretical UNE source-spectral model. The fitness between the estimated and theoretical source-spectral models allows us to discriminate UNEs from natural earthquakes. Also, the P/S source-spectral ratio is observed to be an effective discriminant of UNE.     

Analysis of Russian Hydroacoustic Data for CTBT Monitoring

—?As part of a collaborative research program for the purpose of monitoring the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), we are in the process of examining and analyzing hydroacoustic data from underwater explosions conducted in the former Soviet Union. We are using these data as constraints on modeling the hydroacoustic source as a function of depth below the water surface. This is of interest to the CTBT because although even small explosions at depth generate signals easily observable at large distances, the hydroacoustic source amplitude decreases as the source approaches the surface. Consequently, explosions in the ocean will be more difficult to identify if they are on or near the ocean surface. We are particularly interested in records featuring various combinations of depths of explosion, and distances and depths of recording.¶Unique historical Russian data sets have now become available from test explosions of 100-kg TNT cast spherical charges in a shallow reservoir (87?m length, 25?m to 55?m width, and 3?m depth) with a low-velocity air-saturated layer of sand on the bottom. A number of tests were conducted with varying water level and charge depths. Pressure measurements were taken at varying depths and horizontal distances in the water. The available data include measurements of peak pressures from all explosions and digitized pressure-time histories from some of them. A reduction of peak pressure by about 60–70% is observed in these measurements for half-immersed charges as compared with deeper explosions. In addition, several peak-pressure measurements are also available from a 1957 underwater nuclear explosion (yield <10?kt and depth 30?m) in the Bay of Chernaya (Novaya Zemlya).¶The 100-kg TNT data were compared with model predictions. Shockwave modeling is based on spherical wave propagation and finite element calculations, constrained by empirical data from US underwater chemical and nuclear tests. Modeling was performed for digitized pressure-time histories from two fully-immersed explosions and one explosion of a half-immersed charge, as well as for the peak-pressure measurements from all explosions carried out in the reservoir with water level at its maximum (3?m). We found that the model predictions match the Russian data well.¶Peak-pressure measurements and pressure-time histories were simulated at 10?km distance from hypothetical 1-kt and 10-kt nuclear explosions conducted at various depths in the ocean. The ocean water was characterized by a realistic sound velocity profile featuring a velocity minimum at 700?m depth. Simulated measurements at that same depth predict at least a tenfold increase in peak pressures from explosions in the SOFAR channel as compared with very shallow explosions (e.g., ～3?m depth).¶ The observations and the modeling results were also compared with predictions calculated at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory using a different modeling approach. All results suggest that although the coupling is reduced for very shallow explosions, a shallow 1-kt explosion should be detectable by the IMS hydroacoustic network.     

利用人工爆破资料研究福建一维P波速度结构和地震定位

通过人工爆破资料研究地球结构的独特优点是震源时间和位置精确知道.2010—2012年间福建省进行了一系列的爆破实验.本文利用手工拾取来自省地震台网记录的爆破地震初至Pg、Pn以及续至Pg波到时数据,采用联合反演方法构建了新的一维P波速度模型,即福建爆破模型(FJEM).与华南模型相比,FJEM模型对走时的拟合程度提高了45%,有明显改善.利用不同爆破地震数据组合得到稳定类似的福建地区一维速度模型,显示福建地区存在较简单的一维速度结构.对爆破地震的重定位显示传统使用的华南模型在福建地区具有较小的水平定位误差(平均0.52±0.45km),但存在较大深度误差(平均4.7±1.2km).FJEM模型表现出与华南模型相似的水平定位能力,但是震源深度误差更小(1.3±1.1km).对基于FJEM模型的合成天然地震目录的重定位,华南模型显示出相似的定位结果:(1)台站方位覆盖较好的福建中部地区的水平定位误差小;(2)台站方位覆盖差的福建海岸及海峡区域水平定位误差大;(3)震源深度误差则跟台站数目及方位分布没有明显的关系,而是与发震时间误差有互易关系.从中可以看出,地震水平定位误差基本上受台站方位覆盖影响,而受参考速度模型影响不大;而在深度方面,本文改进的FJEM模型不仅更加接近真实的速度结构(拟合走时更好)而且也减小了深度误差.因此建议在福建及其邻近区域的日常定位中用FJEM模型替代华南模型.     

USGS地震目录中4～5级震源深度异常地震可靠性初步研究:以南北地震带若干地震为例

在南北地震带地区,USGS全球地震目录中存在一些震源深度大于30km的地震.这些地震的震源深度是否可靠,对于研究这一地区的孕震机制、岩石圈强度和构造演化等科学问题具有重要意义.本文以南北地震带2012年发生的5个4~5级地震为例,利用区域地震台网的波形数据,基于sPL深度震相、短周期瑞利面波以及CAP等独立方法测定了其震源深度.结果表明:sPL深度震相和CAP方法给出的震源深度比较一致,差别小于2~3km,能够得到比较可靠的震源深度;短周期瑞利面波及其与P波振幅比也确定了地震震源深度较浅的特征.本文研究结果显示:宁夏会宁4.7级、云南富民4.8级和四川会东4.7级地震的震源深度约为8~12km左右,仍为发生于上地壳的地震,USGS地震目录给出的30km甚至更深的震源深度存在明显偏差;对于四川隆昌4.6和4.9级地震,本文给出的震源深度为1~2km,属于极浅源地震,USGS地震目录给出的10km和35km的震源深度结果尚需进一步改进.     

Constituents of Vertical-component Coda Waves at Long Periods

Aki (1969) first modeled coda waves of a local earthquake as a superposition of scattered surface waves. This paper attempts to clarify the constituents of surface-wave coda at long periods at very long lapse times. For a large earthquake of magnitude 7 or larger, vertical component oscillation in periods from 90 to 180 s persists for more than 20 hours from the earthquake origin time. Although the early portion of the coda envelope is successfully modeled by assuming incoherent scattered Rayleigh waves by heterogeneities distributed all over the Earth, the later potion of the observed coda envelope (roughly later than 35,000 s) has systematically larger amplitude than theoretical prediction. To clarify the cause of this discrepancy, we studied the constituents of vertical-component seismograms of three large earthquakes recorded by the F-net in Japan using the f-k power spectral analysis. We found that the direct and scattered fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves of velocity about 3.7 km/s are dominant in the earlier part of each envelope. It justifies the use of a scattering model of the fundamental Rayleigh waves for synthesizing the envelope. At lapse times later than 20,000 s–35,000 s, higher modes with phase velocities around 20 km/s become dominant. The transition time to the dominance of higher modes is found to become earlier for a deeper focus earthquake. The small coda attenuation factor from (1.90±0.23) × 10⁻³ to (2.38±0.32) × 10⁻³ estimated from later coda envelopes recorded at IRIS stations distributed worldwide also agrees with the attenuation factor of spheroidal modes according to PREM. We may interpret that higher mode waves are uniformly distributed at large lapse time due to large velocity dispersion and/or scattering and they dominate over the fundamental mode waves because of smaller attenuation in the lower mantle. The coda attenuation measurement proposed by Aki is found to be useful even for long periods and at very large lapse times.     

Calibration of the Regional Crustal Waveguide and the Retrieval of Source Parameters Using Waveform Modeling

v--vRegional crustal waveguide calibration is essential to the retrieval of source parameters and the location of smaller (M < 4.8) seismic events. This path calibration of regional seismic phases is strongly dependent on the accuracy of hypocentral locations of calibration (or master) events. This information can be difficult to obtain, especially for smaller events. Generally, explosion or quarry blast generated travel-time data with known locations and origin times are useful for developing the path calibration parameters, but in many regions such data sets are scanty or do not exist. We present a method which is useful for regional path calibration independent of such data, i.e. with earthquakes, which is applicable for events down to M_w = 4 and which has successfully been applied in India, central Asia, western Mediterranean, North Africa, Tibet and the former Soviet Union. These studies suggest that reliably determining depth is essential to establishing accurate epicentral location and origin time for events. We find that the error in source depth does not necessarily trade-off only with the origin time for events with poor azimuthal coverage, but with the horizontal location as well, thus resulting in poor epicentral locations. For example, hypocenters for some events in central Asia were found to move from their fixed-depth locations by about 20 km. Such errors in location and depth will propagate into path calibration parameters, particularly with respect to travel times. The modeling of teleseismic depth phases (pP, sP) yields accurate depths for earthquakes down to magnitude M_w = 4.7. This M_w threshold can be lowered to four if regional seismograms are used in conjunction with a calibrated velocity structure model to determine depth, with the relative amplitude of the P_nl waves to the surface waves and the interaction of regional sPmP and pPmP phases being good indicators of event depths. We also found that for deep events a seismic phase which follows an S-wave path to the surface and becomes critical, developing a head wave by S to P conversion is also indicative of depth. The detailed characteristic of this phase is controlled by the crustal waveguide. The key to calibrating regionalized crustal velocity structure is to determine depths for a set of master events by applying the above methods and then by modeling characteristic features that are recorded on the regional waveforms. The regionalization scheme can also incorporate mixed-path crustal waveguide models for cases in which seismic waves traverse two or more distinctly different crustal structures. We also demonstrate that once depths are established, we need only two-stations travel-time data to obtain reliable epicentral locations using a new adaptive grid-search technique which yields locations similar to those determined using travel-time data from local seismic networks with better azimuthal coverage.