中国大陆中强地震复发间隔的概率分布研究

地震复发间隔的概率分布是计算地震发生概率的基础.利用我国历史地震目录资料,统计分析中国大陆中强地震归一化区域复发间隔,分析发现中国大陆中强地震活动兼具周期性和丛集性特点.采用对数正态分布与指数分布构建混合概率分布模型,通过最小二乘法拟合混合概率分布函数的最优参数.拟合结果的误差分析表明,混合概率分布模型更加符合中国大陆...     

中国大陆活动地块边界带地震活动过程及其趋势研究

通过计算前人研究所给出的中国大陆26条活动地块边界带上地震过程的变异系数, 分析了各边界带的地震活动类型, 结果表明中国大陆东部地区的边界带地震都表现为丛集过程, 西部地区大多是泊松过程或者准周期过程, 尤其是大陆板块俯冲作用强烈的边界带上地震活动主要呈现为泊松过程, 青臧高原北部和东部地区的边界带都表现为准周期过程, 并讨论了可能的物理机制。 并在以往研究的基础上, 基于对数正态分布函数, 计算了各边界带目前地震发生的累计概率以及未来五年内地震发生的条件概率, 探讨了各活动地块边界带的危险程度等。     

中国大陆活动地块边界带强震震级分布特征研究

本文利用基于广义帕累托分布的超阈值分布模型,对中国大陆活动地块边界带强震震级分布特征开展研究,给出了各活动地块边界带强震震级的广义帕累托分布参数估计。结果表明,广义帕累托分布较好地拟合了各边界带强震数据,形状参数估计均为负值,说明对应震级应有上限,因此广义帕累托分布为潜在震级上限提供了一种自然的刻画。在此基础上,估计了震级上限,并给出了分布0.99997高分位数估计,通过与历史最大震级比较发现,高分位数估计相对稳健。在地震发生过程为泊松过程假设下,推导了广义帕累托分布与广义极值分布之间的联系,揭示了一种利用强震数据推断最大震级分布的可能途径。     

板内与板间地震活动时空分布的多重分形特征研究

利用多重分形分析方法，考察了中国大陆和台湾地区以及新西兰的地震活动广义应变释放时间和空间分布的多重分形特征. 结果表明，地震活动时空分布的多重分形特征与不同地球动力学环境关系密切. 强震活动时间分布在板间地区具有比板内地区更明显的丛集性， 对中小地震这种丛集性差异较小；强震活动空间分布在板内地区具有比板间地区更强的丛集性，但对中小地震则相反.      

基于蒙特卡洛方法的地震目录模拟及相符性检验——以汾渭地震带为例

人工地震目录模拟是改进现有地震目录不完备性、弥补大地震记录稀缺,以及完善地震学相关研究的有效途径之一。本文基于地震活动的泊松分布模型、古登堡-里克特震级-频度关系,利用能较逼真描述具有随机性质事物特点及物理实验过程的蒙特卡洛方法,模拟汾渭地震带未来30、50、100年等不同时长的地震目录,并对其进行统计检验。分析表明,模拟地震目录符合设定的地震活动性参数和泊松分布假设特征。依据模拟地震目录,对未来该区域地震趋势进行了分析,以期为地震危险性分析提供参考。     

混合地震模型的建立及其科学意义

利用中国西部古地震和历史地震资料建立了特征地震模型并与分档泊松模型结合组成混合地震模型。研究了青藏高原东南缘的重要地震带鲜水河－小江断裂地区的地震危险性,并与1990年出版的中国地震区划图结果进行了比较,表明在1786年曾经发生过73／4级地震的康定地区（离浙时间为213a,地震复地周期为320a）的地震概率大于后,Ⅷ度区面积同样是前大于后。这说明地震离逝时间与地震复发周期关系对地震危险性计算是有影响的,特征地震与混合地震模型的引入解决了泊松模型无记忆性的缺陷,使计算的结果更科学、合理。     

沂沭断裂带近期地震活动性分析

本文研究了沂沭带近期(1970～1986)地震活动性指标的时序变化,设计了分布模型并进行统计检验,结合地震空间分布特点综合分析认为,该带地震活动性指标无明显异常,空间分布状态稳定,时间分布服从泊松模型。说明近期沂沭带处于稳定受力状态,地震为正常背景性活动。     

华南地区中强地震重复特征初步分析

运用时间相依的布朗过程时间模型和泊松模型,分别计算了炉霍潜源和道孚潜源7.0≤M<7.5和7.5≤M<8.0震级档未来50a的发震概率,并将其与根据中国地震动参数区划图(2001)潜在震源区划分综合方案且运用分档泊松模型所得的计算结果进行对比分析。结果表明:①应用地震矩率方法得到的各断裂段特征化地震复发间隔,无论是BPT模型或泊松模型所得到的炉霍和道孚潜源在7.0≤M<7.5震级档的发震概率计算结果,均远大于根据中国地震动参数区划图(2001)潜在震源区划分综合方案所得的计算结果;②对于使用同样的由地震矩率方法得到的各断裂段特征化地震复发间隔数据,BPT模型和泊松模型所得的计算结果也不相同。     

中国大陆7级以上地震前地震活动的非线性分析

本文旨在讨论大地震前地震活动频次的非线性增长现象。首先研究了地震活动的累计增长模型,得到在平稳状态下,小地震的发生近似服从泊松分布的规律,大地震前地震累计频次会出现非线性行为;然后使用中国地震台网中心提供的强震和弱震目录,给出了1970年以来中国大陆15次7级以上地震前地震累计次数呈现指数增长的震例,得到7级以上地震前小震累计次数存在数年尺度的非线性增长特性,部分7级以上地震前小震累计次数还存在几个月尺度的短期非线性特性,应当能够作为一种地震预测的中短期指标。     

蒙古国及其周边地区地震目录初步分析

本文以蒙古国及其周边地区M≥3.5级以上地震目录为基础数据,对该目录做了余震删除、时间完整性分析以及时间统计分布特征分析.结果表明,蒙古国M≥3.5级地震完整记录起始时间为1977年;M≥5.0级地震完整记录起始时间为1945年;M≥6.0级地震完整记录起始时间为1900年.删除余震后,蒙古国地震活动随时间变化基本平稳,时间统计分布特征符合泊松分布.并且在删除余震后,蒙古国地震活动仍有6年左右的丛集周期.     

Large Occurrence Patterns of New Zealand Deep Earthquakes: Characterization by Use of a Switching Poisson Model

The paper studies the statistical properties of deep earthquakes around North Island, New Zealand. We first evaluate the catalogue coverage and completeness of deep events according to cusum (cumulative sum) statistics and earlier literature. The epicentral, depth, and magnitude distributions of deep earthquakes are then discussed. It is worth noting that strong grouping effects are observed in the epicentral distribution of these deep earthquakes. Also, although the spatial distribution of deep earthquakes does not change, their occurrence frequencies vary from time to time, active in one period, relatively quiescent in another. The depth distribution of deep earthquakes also hardly changes except for events with focal depth less than 100 km. On the basis of spatial concentration we partition deep earthquakes into several groups—the Taupo-Bay of Plenty group, the Taranaki group, and the Cook Strait group. Second-order moment analysis via the two-point correlation function reveals only very small-scale clustering of deep earthquakes, presumably limited to some hot spots only. We also suggest that some models usually used for shallow earthquakes fit deep earthquakes unsatisfactorily. Instead, we propose a switching Poisson model for the occurrence patterns of deep earthquakes. The goodness-of-fit test suggests that the time-varying activity is well characterized by a switching Poisson model. Furthermore, detailed analysis carried out on each deep group by use of switching Poisson models reveals similar time-varying behavior in occurrence frequencies in each group.     

Mixed model for interoccurrence times of earthquakes based on the expectation-maximization algorithm

In this paper, the goodness-of-fit test based on a convex combination of Akaike and Bayesian information criteria is used to explain the features of interoccurrence times of earthquakes. By analyzing the seismic catalog of Iran for different tectonic settings, we have found that the probability distributions of time intervals between successive earthquakes can be described by the generalized normal distribution. This indicates that the sequence of successive earthquakes is not a Poisson process. It is found that by decreasing the threshold magnitude, the interoccurrence time distribution changes from the generalized normal distribution to the gamma distribution in some seismotectonic regions. As a new insight, the probability distribution of time intervals between earthquakes is described as a mixture distribution via the expectation-maximization algorithm.     

A model to consider the spatial variability of rainfall partitioning within deciduous canopy. I. Model description

In this first paper of two, a numerical simulation model capable of simulating the spatial variability of rainfall partitioning within a canopy is presented. The second paper details how the model is parameterized, and some testing of its capabilities. The first stage of the model is to derive the mature canopy structure. This is achieved through simplified individual tree structures and a random placement routine based on a modified Poisson distribution. Following this the spatial discretization for throughfall is attained as a series of layers of triangles with a tree trunk at every apex. The number of layers is derived from the leaf area index through a modified Poisson distribution. Seasonal variation in the deciduous canopy is simulated through a time vector routine. The rainfall partitioning section of the model is based upon the Rutter model which has been modified to each individual triangle layer. The main feature of this model is that it offers a method of simulating rainfall partitioning at a scale that is a function of the size of the elementary physical components (tree and leaf scale). This can be used to investigate soil moisture variations under a canopy, or to study the variations within the forest hydrological processes themselves. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall modelling using Poisson-cluster processes: a review of developments

 Over a decade ago, point rainfall models based upon Poisson cluster processes were developed by Rodriguez-Iturbe, Cox and Isham. Two types of point process models were envisaged: the Bartlett–Lewis and the Neyman–Scott rectangular pulse models. Recent developments are reviewed here, including a number of empirical studies. The parameter estimation problem is addressed for both types of Poisson-cluster based models. The multiplicity of parameters which can be obtained for a given data set using the method of moments is illustrated and two approaches to finding a best set of parameters are presented. The use of a proper fitting method will allow for the problems encountered in regionalisation to be adequately dealt with. Applications of the point process model to flood design are discussed and finally, results for a model with dependent cell depth and duration are given. Taking into account the spatial features of rainfall, three multi-site models are presented and compared. They are all governed by a master Poisson process of storm origins and have a number of cell origins associated with each storm origin. The three models differ as to the type of dependence structure between the cell characteristics at different sites. Analytical properties are presented for these models and their ability to represent the spatial structure of a set of raingauge data in the South-West of England is examined. Continuous spatial-temporal models are currently being developed and results are presented for a model in which storm centres arrive in a homogeneous Poisson process in space-time, and cells follow them in time according to a Bartlett–Lewis type cluster. Examples of simulations using this model are shown and compared with radar data from the South-West of England. The paper concludes with a summary of the main areas in which further research is required.     

Improved stress release model: Application to the study of earthquake prediction in Taiwan area

Introduction Stress release model (SRM) was proposed by Vere-Jones (1978) for statistical study of seismicity. Physically it is a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory of earthquake genesis. The classical elastic rebound model suggests that the stress has been slowly accumulating until the burst of an earthquake occurrence for stress release. This can be simulated by the jump Markov process in stochastic field, and SRM was developed on the basis of Knopoff (s Markov model (Knop…     

Spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence model for Tangshan aftershock sequence

Shallow earthquakes usually show obvious spatio-temporal clustering patterns. In this study, several spatio-temporal point process models are applied to investigate the clustering characteristics of the well-known Tangshan sequence based on classical empirical laws and a few assumptions. The relative fit of competing models is compared by Akaike Information Criterion. The spatial clustering pattern is well characterized by the model which gives the best fit to the data. A simulated aftershock sequence is generated by thinning algorithm and compared with the real seismicity.     

Synthesized Poisson and renewal model and its application in seismic hazard analysis

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Model of earthquake occurrence in the European area

Summary The time distribution of earthquake occurrence in the European area is investigated by statistical laws. The original data of shallow-focus earthquakes are taken from the European catalogue 1901–1967. Evidence is given that the process with the negative binomial entries as a model describing the occurrence of shallow-focus earthquakes is better than the Poisson process. Further, the influence of magnitude classes and magnitude threshold value on the time distribution of earthquake occurrence is examined.Communication presented at the XIII General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission in Brasov in 1972.     

Study of the anomaly of seismic fractal spectrum before strong earthquakes

3 Conclusions The research of some theoretical Contor models of multi-scale and the numerical model of seismic spatial distribution show that the physical property of anomalies in seismic fractal spectrums is due to an increment of nonuniformity in the point set (earthquakes), in another word, the complexity increases. It is exactly the general precursory that the distribution pattern becomes complex from simple or nonuiform from uniform. So seismic multi-fractal spectrums is one of the best methods or tools for describing the complexity of seismic temporal-spatial distribution patterns. According to this view of point, taking the anomalies of the seismic multi-fractal spectrum as the earthquake prediction criterion is very valuable and worth while further studying. This project is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Stochastic spatial analysis of earthquake sequence

In this paper, by means of the statistical analysis method of stochastic spatial point process, statistical analysis of spatial distribution of earthquakes in the large northern region of China is made. Emphasis is on the test and analysis of the complete spatial randomness, correlation of earthquake distribution in the different magnitude interval and random labeling. It is shown by the analysis that the spatial distribution of earthquakes in the large northern region is “clustered”, the distributions of earthquakes in different magnitude interval are positively correlated and can be modeled by a two-dimensional process. The results obtained in the paper can be used for the establishment of a reasonable spatial distribution model and have some application in the reasonable estimation of seismic hazard. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 129–135, 1993.