Eine neue Darstellung der Seismizität unter Berücksichtigung des Herdvolumens

Summary The projective seismicity of a single earthquake results from the local seismicity of the concerned quake. For the focal region a spherical and a cylindrical model are discussed. The volume of the focal region is identified with the focal volume. For calculation of the radius of both the sphere and the cylinder a common formula based on the Båth and Duda relation between the focal volume and the magnitude of an earthquake is used.

---

---

Mitteilung Nr. 207 aus dem Zentralinstitut Physik der Erde der DAW zu Berlin, Institutsteil Jena.     

唐山大震前的地震空区和围空地震的机理

本文通过分析区域小震活动的变异,指出:1)唐山大震前不同震级下限的围空图象,实际上是唐山附近的地震平静和外围三支小震条带活动,二者合成的结果;2)空区边缘的应力集中和地震活动增强,主要是断裂带活动的结果.最后用强度和应力分布不均匀的断层模式讨论了围空图象形成的力学过程.      

Seismic risk assessment for developing countries: Pakistan as a case study

Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region.     

Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation

In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°～120°E,29°～42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu≥8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.     

用分形理论研究海南岛的活动断裂

在编制海南岛及其邻近地区地震构造图的基础上，利用数盒子法计算了海南岛的活动断裂的分形维数，并从分形理论的角度讨论了活动断裂和地震活动性之间的关系，认为活动断裂的分形维数和地震活动性的分形维数是相等的。从活动断裂的分形维数和地震活动性的分形维数的一致性来看，区域性的地震活动可能受到该地区活动断裂空间分布的制约和作用。     

空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究

使用Frankel提出的基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法,选择华南、华北、川滇3个地区的地震记录,比较分析了高斯、幂律和地震分形分布光滑函数3种光滑函数在不同地区的适用性．结果表明,使用交叉验证法可以为高斯光滑函数选取合适的相关距离c值,光滑得到的地震活动性模型能够真实反映研究区域的地震活动特征,根据活动性模型计算得出的峰值加速度(PGA)分布也符合人们对研究区域地震危险性的认识．幂律光滑函数适用于地震活动性较强的地区,且具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．光滑程度较低的幂律光滑函数不适用于地震活动性弱的地区,在该类地区应选择光滑程度较高的高斯光滑函数．地震分形分布光滑函数不适用于地震活动较强且地震活动强度差异较大的地区,其容易过分高估高震级地震对地震危险性的影响,而忽略了低震级地震对地震危险性的贡献．但对于地震活动较弱且地震活动强度差异较小的地区,可使用地震分形分布光滑函数,且同样具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．      

大同—阳高6.1级地震活动背景

本文从较大时空范围研究了１９８９年大同－阳高６．１级地震的地震活动性背景，认为大同－阳高地震不是一次孤立的地震事件，是大同盆地历史６级以上地震活动的继续和必然。在时间进程中它们受华北地震区和山西地震带强震活动周期的制约，空间上与北三省交汇区中强地震成丛活动密切相关。大同－阳高６．１级、５．８级地震以及此期间的侯马４．９级、析州５．１级地震是山西地震带中强地震即将活跃的一个迹象，也是华北区域应力场增     

On the testing of seismicity models

Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible applications to hazard analysis. We arrive at the conclusion that model testing can be made more efficient by focusing on some integral characteristics of the seismicity distribution. This can be achieved either in the likelihood framework but with economical and physically reasonable coarsening of the phase space or by choosing a suitable measure of closeness between empirical and model seismicity rate in this space.     

Seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia Earthquake Region Between 1962 and 1998

The Vogtland/Western Bohemia region is part of the Saxothuringian Earthquake Province. It is an isolated area of active intraplate seismicity. Observations of the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 are summarized. More than 17000 earthquakes have been detected microseismically with M _L reaching from about –1.5 to 4.6. In the considered time interval, the catalogue of Vogtland events can be regarded as complete for magnitudes larger than 1.8. The region is well known for the occurrence of earthquakes clustered contemporarily in time and space. In this study, altogether 82 clusters are defined. Among them, clusters with swarm properties are distinguished from clusters with main shock accompanied by fore- and aftershocks, and from single events. 48 swarms are detected.The magnitude-frequency distribution of the maximum magnitudes of the clusters is studied. In the magnitude range 1.8  M _L  3.1, a bimodal character of the magnitude-frequency distribution is detected for both swarms and nonswarm-like events. The slope is greater for larger magnitudes than in the small-magnitude range. A gap in the magnitude-frequency distribution of clusters is observed for maximum magnitudes between 3.1 and 4.3. Furthermore, clusters themselves are characterized by the b-values of their magnitude-frequency distributions. Swarms show b-values greater than 0.7. Epicenters of swarms are confined to a few subregions. Epicenters of nonswarm-like events are distributed over a larger region than epicenters of swarms but hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like clusters may be located close to each other.The envelope of the distribution of magnitudes as a function of time is investigated. In the considered time interval, a statistically significant recurrence of strong events of about 72 months is discovered by a frequency analysis. Comparing the seismicity between 1897 and 1908 with the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 temporal variations in the recurrence become obvious. The Nový Kostel zone is discussed in more detail. The average hypocenters of swarms are located on a SW-dipping fault segment that intersects the Eger Rift in NNW-SSE direction.Discussing properties of the seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia region it is concluded that the increased seismicity may be explained by the presence of fluids on deep reaching faults. The occurrence of swarms, their variability as well as the small distances between hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like events point to strong lateral and possibly temporal changes of the properties of the fault system.     

ANALYSIS OF SEISMICITY CHANGES PRIOR TO THE 2014 YUNNAN JINGGU MS6.6 EARTHQUAKE

According to the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm,the analysis of seismicity changes prior to the 2014 Yunnan Jinggu M_S6.6 earthquake was conducted by using the earthquake catalogues about 6 and 15 years before this earthquake,respectively.When the studied period was nearly 6 years,an enhancement of seismic activity was detected around the epicenter since the beginning of 2013.The anomalies mainly distributed in the region of 22.5°~24.5°N and 99°~102°E.The range and degree of anomalies changed from small to large,and then to small chronologically.As the surface integral in respect to RTL,the physical parameter I_RTL,which could reflect the regional seismicity level,began to increase since August 2013,and then reduced after reaching the peak point.The time length from the peak point of I_RTL curve to the earthquake occurrence was 9 months.When the analyzed catalogue was nearly 15 years,the 2007 Ninger M_S6.4 occurred in the studied region.Seismicity quiescence was detected prior to the Ninger M_S6.4.Before the Jinggu M_S6.6,seismicity quiescence was detected firstly,and then enhanced activity was observed 1 year prior to the earthquake occurrence.The anomalies mainly distributed in the region of 22.5°~24.5°N and 99°~102°E.The time length from the peak point of I_RTL curve to the earthquake occurrence was 7 months.The above study showed that even the earthquakes location was near and the magnitude was close to each other,a big difference in seismic activity before the earthquakes may exist.Before the Jinggu M_S6.6,there was some difference in seismicity changes according to different beginning time of catalogues,but the distribution of anomalies and the time length from the peak point of I_RTL to the earthquake occurrence were uniform.So there was an important significance for exploring the relationship between the distribution of anomalies and the earthquake location,and the relationship between the time of the peak point of I_RTL and the earthquake occurrence time.     

1974年永善7.1级地震活动异常特征及其机理探讨

１９７４年永善７．１级地震前地震活动性在演变过程中表现出很强的异常特征：（１）围绕主震形成一个地震活动增强区，而主震处于增强区内的空区，从而形成环形分布；（２）在孕震过程中，增强区经历了一个走向由ＮＥ向变为ＮＷ向、区域由大变小的过程；（３）增强区内地震活动性呈现出很强的２０年的韵律性，而在主震前增强区形成阶段长周期（２０年）却消失，短周期（５年以内）突出。然后从连续介质力学角度，运用包体模型的力学     

Aftershock sequence simulations using synthetic earthquakes and rate-state seismicity formulation

We use an efficient earthquake simulator that incorporates rate-state constitutive properties and uses boundary element method to discretize the fault surfaces, to generate the synthetic earthquakes in the fault system. Rate-and-state seismicity equation is subsequently employed to calculate the seismicity rate in a region of interest using the Coulomb stress transfer from the main shocks in the fault system. The Coulomb stress transfer is obtained by resolving the induced stresses due to the fault patch slips onto the optimal-oriented fault planes. The example results show that immediately after a main shock the aftershocks are concentrated in the vicinity of the rupture area due to positive stress transfers and then disperse away into the surrounding region toward the background rate distribution. The number of aftershocks near the rupture region is found to decay with time as Omori aftershock decay law predicts. The example results demonstrate that the rate-and-state fault system earthquake simulator and the seismicity equations based on the rate-state friction nucleation of earthquake are well posited to characterize the aftershock distribution in regional assessments of earthquake probabilities.     

Migration of sources of small earthquakes in the Garm region and variations in velocity of the Earth’s rotation

The spatial-temporal variations in localization of the sources of earthquakes with H ≥ 14 km are reviewed for the Garm region. The uneven distribution of such earthquakes is related to the block structure: their amount is higher in the weakened zones rather than in blocks. Three weakened zones are characterized by higher activity of deepened seismicity, which varies in time and increases before the earthquakes with K ≥ 12.5. The temporal variations in distribution of earthquake sources with depth allow a suggestion of the relation of the velocity of the Earth’s rotation and activity of deepened seismicity.     

Analysis of largest earthquakes in Turkey and its vicinity by application of the Gumbel III distribution

A study of the spatial distribution of seismicity parameters is undertaken along Turkey and its vicinity, using the Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). The data set used spans of 111 years (1900–2010). The seismicity of the whole region is subdivided into equal area mesh of 1° lat. × 1° long. Various seismicity parameters examined, resulted from the application of the GIII method. The results show a quite good correlation between the seismicity parameters and the tectonic regime of the studied area. For instance high values concentrated around North Anatolian Fault. The x ²-test is applied throughout the whole process and in every stage of GIII, in order to check the accuracy of the obtained results. The spatial distribution of upper-bound (ω) formed a W-shape pattern, which shows the difference in the mechanical structure of the materials in the examined area.     

Seismic source identification and characterisation for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses conducted in the Buller–NW Nelson Region, South Island, New Zealand

A seismic source model is presented for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses to be conducted for sites within the Buller–NW Nelson region of New Zealand. The application of common probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology for sites in this region has been complicated by the long-held suspicion that the observed rates of seismic activity are high and not representative of long-term earthquake activity. However, recent analyses of geological, seismicity and geodetic data indicate that the extent of this anomaly may have been overestimated and that current rates of seismic activity within this region are likely to continue into the foreseeable future. Probable bounds for the most appropriate long-term rates of seismic activity are estimated after considering all available sources of constraint. These include geodetic analyses, plate-motion modelling, finite element modelling, structural geological considerations, paleoseismic information, tree-ring analyses, precarious rock information, observed seismicity and fundamental mechanics. A suite of fault sources is identified, and the observed seismicity is partitioned between these sources and a background source using Bayesian inference, and then analysed to obtain a magnitude–frequency distribution for each seismic source. The annual moment release rate for the region, resulting from the identified and characterised sources, is shown to be consistent with available constraints. Consequently, it is demonstrated that the observed seismicity in the Buller–NW Nelson region can be used to model future earthquake occurrence within the region and that standard PSHA may therefore be implemented within the region.     

Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogues: an application to the Italian territory

The comprehensive understanding of earthquake source-physics under real conditions requires the study not of single faults as separate entities but rather of a seismically active region as a whole, accounting for the interaction among different structures. We define “seismic sample area” the most convenient region to be used as a natural laboratory for the study of seismic source physics. This coincides with the region where the average large magnitude seismicity is the highest. To this end, time and space future distributions of large earthquakes are to be estimated. Using catalog seismicity as an input, the rate of occurrence is not constant but appears generally biased by incompleteness in some parts of the catalog and possible nonstationarities in seismic activity. We present a statistical procedure which is capable, under a few mild assumptions, of both detecting nonstationarities in seismicity and finding the incomplete parts of a seismic catalog. The procedure is based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov nonparametric statistics, and can be applied without a priori assuming the parent distribution of the events. The efficiency of this procedure allows the analysis of small data sets. An application to the Italian territory is presented, using the most recent version of the ENEL seismic catalog. Seismic activity takes place in six well defined areas but only five of them have a number of events sufficient for analysis. Barring a few exceptions, seismicity is found stationary throughout the whole catalog span 1000–1980. The eastern Alps region stands out as the best “sample area”, with the highest average probability of event occurrence per time and area unit. Final objective of this characterization is to stimulate a program of intensified research.     

Seismicity of the Indian Peninsular Shield from Regional Earthquake Data

--In this comprehensive study of seismicity and seismotectonics of the peninsular Indian shield region, seismic data of regional earthquakes spanning two decades (1978-1997), obtained at Gauribidanur seismic array (India) and integrated where necessary with data from other seismological stations in the region, have been analyzed in detail. With a slow rate of stress accumulation, the shield is found to have low to moderate seismicity that takes into account a couple of earthquakes of magnitude slightly larger than 6. The frequency-magnitude analysis of the data set gives a b value of 1.18. The spatio-temporal pattern of occurrences of the earthquakes combined with their magnitude and seismic energy distribution is consistent with the view that the peninsular seismicity is low to moderate and episodic in nature. Regions of moderate seismicity and its low-grade counterpart constituted by microearthquakes (magnitude less than 3), appear correlated to the areas traversed by known geologic faults and subfaults, shear zones, and other such tectonic features. Microearthquakes represent about two-thirds of the total regional seismic events during the past two decades.     

豫北地区地震活动性及其与区域地壳运动的关系

本根据地震地质和地震分布条带,把豫北地区从西至东分为弱,中,强三个区段。由于区域地壳深部主断裂和大震活动的牵动作用,是造成本地震活动的重要原因,因而从区域地壳块体活动背景上探讨了本区及邻近地区地震活动趋势,中还指出,豫北西部太行山区的林县－薄壁地震带,虽不具有强震构造背景,但小震年月频率多寡和震群活动,却能反映了大区域地壳应力场强弱,亦可作为判断区域性地震活动的指标。     

广西河池地区的地震活动及发震机制的岩石实验解释

本文讨论了广西河池地区地震活动的时空分布、应力场“窗口”效应和小震级高烈度等特征,並利用岩石实验的某些结果对该区地震的发震机制作了一些定性解释。该区是一个两组断裂交汇的应力敏感区,地震是在低应力条件下在极不均匀介质宁原有裂隙发生粘滑的结果,其特殊的地体环境下可能构成蕴育大震的条件,其地震活动不会对邻近的龙滩库坝区造成威胁。     

青藏块体近期地震活动特征

本文研究了青藏块体近期地震活动两个显著的现象;中强地震自印度板块北部由南向北的地震扩展迁移现象和中强震空间分布的北东向地震条带及其相关现象,探讨了其形成的物理机制,分析了它们的发展趋势,据此对本区地震活动趋势进行了预测。