山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析——以玉龙雪山地区为例

通过问卷调查和访谈,揭示了青藏高原东南缘玉龙雪山地区居民对当地气候变化及其影响与适应的感知认识。结果表明：居民对玉龙雪山地区气候变化的感知强度与科学研究结果总体上具有很高的一致性。居民对气候变化对农业环境影响的感知不很强烈,认为气候变化并未影响到农作物长势和产量,但对气候变化导致农作物病虫害略有增加和作物生长期延长的感知却持较高赞同度。居民对气候变化及其适应的感知强度总体上与海拔高度相关显著,而对气候变化及其影响的感知则与年龄显著相关。气候变化已促使山区居民调整产业结构,发展低耗水农业经济,并积极参与山区旅游、外出打工,以弥补微薄的农业收入。同时,居民也期望政府能够给予他们一定的经济补偿,以弥补由于干旱和倒春寒等带来的经济损失。     

Climate change in arid lands and Native American socioeconomic vulnerability: The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe

The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe exemplifies tribal vulnerabilities as a result of climate change. Preliminary socio-economic data and analysis reveal that the tribe’s vulnerability to climate change is related to cultural and economic dependence on Pyramid Lake, while external socio-economic vulnerability factors influence adaptive capacity and amplify potential impacts. Reduced water supplies as a consequence of climate change would result in a compounded reduction of inflows to Pyramid Lake, thus potentially impacting the spawning and sustenance of a cultural livelihood, the endangered cui-ui fish (Chasmistes cujus). Meanwhile, limited economic opportunities and dwindling federal support constrain tribal adaptive capacity. Factors that contribute to tribal adaptive capacity include: sustainability-based values, technical capacity for natural resource management, proactive initiatives for the control of invasive-species, strong external scientific networks, and remarkable tribal awareness of climate change.     

Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa

Multiple cropping systems provide more harvest security for farmers, allow for crop intensification and furthermore influence ground cover, soil erosion, albedo, soil chemical properties, pest infestation and the carbon sequestration potential. We identify the traditional sequential cropping systems in ten sub-Saharan African countries from a survey dataset of more than 8600 households. We find that at least one sequential cropping system is traditionally used in 35% of all administrative units in the dataset, mainly including maize or groundnuts. We compare six different management scenarios and test their susceptibility as adaptation measure to climate change using the dynamic global vegetation model for managed land LPJmL. Aggregated mean crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa decrease by 6–24% due to climate change depending on the climate scenario and the management strategy. As an exception, some traditional sequential cropping systems in Kenya and South Africa gain by at least 25%. The crop yield decrease is typically weakest in sequential cropping systems and if farmers adapt the sowing date to changing climatic conditions. Crop calorific yields in single cropping systems only reach 40–55% of crop calorific yields obtained in sequential cropping systems at the end of the 21st century. The farmers’ choice of adequate crops, cropping systems and sowing dates can be an important adaptation strategy to climate change and these management options should be considered in climate change impact studies on agriculture.     

Climate change policy responses for Canada's Inuit population: The importance of and opportunities for adaptation

We identify and examine how policy intervention can help Canada's Inuit population adapt to climate change. The policy responses are based on an understanding of the determinants of vulnerability identified in research conducted with 15 Inuit communities. A consistent approach was used in each case study where vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure-sensitivity to climatic risks and adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. This conceptualization focuses on the biophysical and human determinants of vulnerability and how they are influenced by processes and conditions operating at multiple spatial-temporal scales. Case studies involved close collaboration with community members and policy makers to identify conditions to which each community is currently vulnerable, characterize the factors that shape vulnerability and how they have changed over time, identify opportunities for adaptation policy, and examine how adaptation can be mainstreamed. Fieldwork, conducted between 2006 and 2009, included 443 semi-structured interviews, 20 focus groups/community workshops, and 65 interviews with policy makers at local, regional, and national levels. Synthesizing findings consistent across the case studies we document significant vulnerabilities, a function of socio-economic stresses and change, continuing and pervasive inequality, and magnitude of climate change. Nevertheless, adaptations are available, feasible, and Inuit have considerable adaptive capacity. Realizing this adaptive capacity and overcoming adaptation barriers requires policy intervention to: (i) support the teaching and transmission of environmental knowledge and land skills, (ii) enhance and review emergency management capability, (iii) ensure the flexibility of resource management regimes, (iv) provide economic support to facilitate adaptation for groups with limited household income, (v) increase research effort to identify short and long term risk factors and adaptive response options, (vi) protect key infrastructure, and (vii) promote awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation among policy makers.     

U.S. Agriculture and Climate Change: New Results

We examined the impacts on U.S. agriculture of transient climate change assimulated by 2 global general circulation models focusing on the decades ofthe 2030s and 2090s. We examined historical shifts in the location of cropsand trends in the variability of U.S. average crop yields, finding thatnon-climatic forces have likely dominated the north and westward movement ofcrops and the trends in yield variability. For the simulated future climateswe considered impacts on crops, grazing and pasture, livestock, pesticide use,irrigation water supply and demand, and the sensitivity to international tradeassumptions, finding that the aggregate of these effects were positive for theU.S. consumer but negative, due to declining crop prices, for producers. Weexamined the effects of potential changes in El Niño/SouthernOscillation (ENSO) and impacts on yield variability of changes in mean climateconditions. Increased losses occurred with ENSO intensity and frequencyincreases that could not be completely offset even if the events could beperfectly forecasted. Effects on yield variability of changes in meantemperatures were mixed. We also considered case study interactions ofclimate, agriculture, and the environment focusing on climate effects onnutrient loading to the Chesapeake Bay and groundwater depletion of theEdward's Aquifer that provides water for municipalities and agriculture to theSan Antonio, Texas area. While only case studies, these results suggestenvironmental targets such as pumping limits and changes in farm practices tolimit nutrient run-off would need to be tightened if current environmentalgoals were to be achieved under the climate scenarios we examined     

A Summary of Climate Change Impact Assessments from the U.S. Country Studies Program

Forty-nine countries participating in the U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP) assessed climate change impacts in one or more of eight sectors: coastal resources, agriculture, grasslands/livestock, water resources, forests, fisheries, wildlife, and health. The studies were generally limited to analysis of first order biophysical effects, e.g., coastal inundation, crop yield, and runoff changes. There were some limited studies of adaptation. We review and synthesize the results of the impact assessments conducted under the USCSP. The studies found that sea level rise could cause substantial inundation and erosion of valuable lands, but, protecting developed areas would be economically sound. The studies showed mixed results for changes in crop yields, with a tendency toward decreased yields in African and Asian countries, particularly southern Asian countries, and mixed results in European and Latin American countries. Adaptation could significantly affect yields, but it is not clear whether the adaptations are affordable or feasible. The studies tend to show a high sensitivity of runoff to climate change, which could result in increases in droughts or floods. The impacts on grasslands and livestock are mixed, but there appears to be a large capacity for adaptation. Human health problems could increase, particularly for populations in low-latitude countries with inadequate access to health care. The USCSP assessments found that the composition of forests is likely to change, while biomass could be reduced. Some wildlife species were estimated to have reduced populations. The major contribution of the USCSP was in building capacity in developing countries to assess potential climate impacts. However, many of the studies did not analyze the implications of biophysical impacts of climate change on socioeconomic conditions, cross-sectoral integration of impacts, autonomous adaptation, or proactive adaptation. Follow-on work should attempt to develop capacity in developing and transition countries to conduct more integrated studies of climate change impacts.     

Farm-scale adaptation and vulnerability to environmental stresses: Insights from winegrowing in Northern California

The wine industry is increasingly recognized as especially vulnerable to climate change due to the climate sensitivity of both winegrape yields and quality, making it an important model system for the agricultural impacts of global changes. However, agricultural production is strongly influenced by the management decisions of growers, including their practices to modify the microclimate experienced by the growing crop; these adaptations have not been studied at the vineyard level, where managers on the ground are on the front lines of responding to global change.We conducted 20 in-depth interviews with winegrowers to examine farm-scale adaptive responses to environmental stresses, to understand the views and motivations of agricultural managers, and to explore adaptive capacity in practice. We found that growers tend to respond to stresses individually rather than collectively, except when facing severe, unfamiliar pests and diseases. Responses may be reactive or anticipatory; most anticipatory strategies have been short-term, in response to imminent threats. Growers tend to rely on their own experience to guide their management decisions, which may offer poor guidance under novel climate regimes. From using a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, we find that changing exposure (vineyard location) and sensitivity (planting choices such as vine variety) have the biggest impact on reducing vulnerability, but that adaptations in growing or processing the crop in the vineyard and winery are easier to implement, much more commonly undertaken, and may also offer substantial adaptive capacity. Understanding the context of adaptations, as well as the decision-making processes motivating them, is important for understanding responses to global change.These findings highlight some innovations in adapting to global change, as well as some of the barriers, and point to the need for strategic investments to enhance agricultural resilience to climate change. In particular, strategies to enhance both effective and easy to implement farming adaptations, as well as broader-scale anticipatory, collective responses, could reduce vulnerability in the context of climate change.     

Policy support,social capital,and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China

Increasingly severe drought has not only threatened food security but also resulted in massive socio-economic losses. In the face of increasingly serious drought conditions, the question of how to mitigate its impacts through appropriate measures has received great attention. The overall goal of this study is to examine the influence of policies and social capital on farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation measures against drought. The study is based on a large-scale household and village survey conducted in six provinces nationwide. The survey results show that 86% of rural households have taken adaptive measures to protect crop production against drought, most of which are non-engineering measures. In the case of non-engineering measures, changing agricultural production inputs and adjusting seeding or harvesting dates are two popular options. A multivariate regression analysis reveals that government policy support against drought such as releasing early warning information and post-disaster services, technical assistance, financial and physical supports have significantly improved farmers’ ability to adapt to drought. However, since only 5% of villages benefited from such supports, the government in China still has significant room to implement these assistances. Moreover, having a higher level of social capital in a farm household significantly increases their adaptation capacity against drought. Therefore, the government should pay particular attention to the farming communities, and farmers within a community who have a low level of social capital. Finally, farmers’ ability to adapt to drought is also associated with the characteristics of their households and local communities. The results of this study also have implications for national adaptation plans for agriculture under climate change in other developing countries.     

Phosphorus vulnerability: A qualitative framework for assessing the vulnerability of national and regional food systems to the multi-dimensional stressors of phosphorus scarcity

The element phosphorus underpins the viability of global and national food systems, by ensuring soil fertility, maximising crop yields, supporting farmer livelihoods and ultimately nutritional security of the global population. The implications of global phosphorus scarcity therefore have serious potential consequences for future food security, yet these implications have not been be comprehensively or sufficiently assessed at the global or national scales. This paper offers a new integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of national food systems to global phosphorus scarcity—the Phosphorus Vulnerability Assessment framework. Drawing on developments in assessing climate and water vulnerability, the framework identifies and integrates 26 phosphorus-related biophysical, technical, geopolitical, socio-economic and institutional factors that can lead to food system vulnerability. The theoretical framework allows analysis of context-specific food system by examining impact due to exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The framework will also ultimately provide guidance for food and agriculture policy-makers, phosphate producers and phosphorus end-users (primarily farmers and consumers) to take action to reduce their vulnerability to this new global challenge.     

Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change

Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience to climate change at local, national and transnational level.     

Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty

Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change.     

Climate Change and Rice Yields in Diverse Agro-Environments of India. II. Effect of Uncertainties in Scenarios and Crop Models on Impact Assessment

Estimates of impact of climate change on crop production could be biased depending upon the uncertainties in climate change scenarios, region of study, crop models used for impact assessment and the level of management. This study reports the results of a study where the impact of various climate change scenarios has been assessed on grain yields of irrigated rice with two popular crop simulation models- Ceres-Rice and ORYZA1N at different levels of N management. The results showed that the direct effect of climate change on rice crops in different agroclimatic regions in India would always be positive irrespective of the various uncertainties. Rice yields increased between 1.0 and 16.8% in pessimistic scenarios of climate change depending upon the level of management and model used. These increases were between 3.5 and 33.8% in optimistic scenarios. At current as well as improved level of management, southern and western parts of India which currently have relatively lower temperatures compared to northern and eastern regions, are likely to show greater sensitivity in rice yields under climate change. The response to climate change is small at low N management compared to optimal management. The magnitude of this impact can be biased upto 32% depending on the uncertainty in climate change scenario, level of management and crop model used. These conclusions are highly dependent on the specific thresholds of phenology and photosynthesis to change in temperature used in the models. Caution is needed in using the impact assessment results made with the average simulated grain yields and mean changes in climatic parameters.     

Agricultural Impact Assessment, Vulnerability, and the Scope for Adaptation

Climate change assessments which have considered climate impacts of a 2xCO₂ climate, using models of the global agricultural system, have found small impacts on overall production, but larger regional changes. Production shifts among regions can be considered one mechanism for adaptation. Adaptation at the farm level, through changes in crops, cultivars, and production practices, is another adaptation mechanism. Existing studies differ in how important these mechanisms will be. Studies that have considered yield effects at specific sites have found very wide ranges of impacts. A useful way to evaluate the impacts of climate change, given the uncertainty about future impacts, is to consider vulnerability. Studies have defined vulnerability in terms of yield, farm profitability, regional economy, and hunger. Vulnerability and climate impacts, particularly in terms of higher order effects on profitability and sustainability, will depend on how society and the economy develop. Lower income populations and marginal agricultural regions, particularly arid or flood prone areas, are most vulnerable to climate change.     

A methodological framework for rapidly assessing the impacts of climate risk on national-level food security through a vulnerability index

This article describes an experimental Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index showing the relative vulnerability of food insecure populations to climate risks at country level, as a tool for better understanding risks to food security presented by climate change. Data from socioeconomic and environmental indicators were analysed, and the most relevant indicators were aggregated using a composite index to compare differential vulnerabilities. The paper shows the high correlation between hunger and climate risk, especially for the regions of the world most affected by food insecurity. The analysis goes beyond the impact of climate on crop yields and provides a multidimensional analysis of vulnerability, while demonstrating the critical role that adaptive capacity has in determining vulnerability. The paper also presents a method for analysing food security vulnerability to climate risks that is replicable at different scales to provide a robust planning tool for policy makers. This approach can also be used to monitor vulnerability, evaluate potential effectiveness of programmes, and/or examine plausible impacts of climate change by introducing scenarios into the vulnerability model.     

An Assessment of Integrated Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Economy of Egypt

This study used a quadratic programming sector model to assess the integrated impacts of climate change on the agricultural economy of Egypt. Results from a dynamic global food trade model were used to update the Egyptian sector model and included socio-economic trends and world market prices of agricultural goods. In addition, the impacts of climate change from three bio-physical sectors – water resources, crop yields, and land resources – were used as inputs to the economic model. The climate change scenarios generally had minor impacts on aggregated economic welfare (sum of Consumer and Producer Surplus or CPS), with the largest reduction of approximately 6 percent. In some climate change scenarios, CPS slightly improved or remained unchanged. These scenarios generally benefited consumers more than producers, as world market conditions reduced the revenue generating capacity of Egyptian agricultural exporters but decreased the costs of imports. Despite increased water availability and only moderate yield declines, several climate change scenarios showed producers being negatively affected by climate change. The analysis supported the hypothesis that smaller food importing countries are at a greater risk to climate change, and impacts could have as much to do with changes in world markets as with changes in local and regional biophysical systems and shifts in the national agricultural economy.     

East African food security as influenced by future climate change and land use change at local to regional scales

Climate change impacts food production systems, particularly in locations with large, vulnerable populations. Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as land cover/land use change (LCLUC), can influence regional climate dynamics. Biophysical factors such as topography, soil type, and seasonal rainfall can strongly affect crop yields. We used a regional climate model derived from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of projected future GHG and future LCLUC on spatial variability of crop yields in East Africa. Crop yields were estimated with a process-based simulation model. The results suggest that: (1) GHG-influenced and LCLUC-influenced yield changes are highly heterogeneous across this region; (2) LCLUC effects are significant drivers of yield change; and (3) high spatial variability in yield is indicated for several key agricultural sub-regions of East Africa. Food production risk when considered at the household scale is largely dependent on the occurrence of extremes, so mean yield in some cases may be an incomplete predictor of risk. The broad range of projected crop yields reflects enormous variability in key parameters that underlie regional food security; hence, donor institutions’ strategies and investments might benefit from considering the spatial distribution around mean impacts for a given region. Ultimately, global assessments of food security risk would benefit from including regional and local assessments of climate impacts on food production. This may be less of a consideration in other regions. This study supports the concept that LCLUC is a first-order factor in assessing food production risk.     

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g.,67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO₂ fertilization causesworld crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO₂ fertilization that are beneficial undercurrent economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO₂-fertilization scenariosin this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.     

SENSITIVITY OF THE RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE, CO2 AND TROPOSPHERIC OZONE CONCENTRATIONS AND SOIL FERTILITY

Russian agriculture sensitivity to changes in climate, soil and atmosphere chemistry were analyzed. Calculated data are presented on crop productivity of grain crops and grasses (C₃) under arid and humid scenarios of climate taking account of one-, two-, three and four-factor natural environment impacts. All four factors under studies (climatic parameters, CO₂ and tropospheric ozone concentrations, soil degradation extent) greatly impact agriculture productivity. The effect of interaction between all considered factors on agroecosystem productivity is studied. It is established that a simple additive scheme for explaining the complex effect of some factors can be much violated. In this case, not only variations in the mean crop yield levels but also variations in the degree of crop stability have been assessed in some regions, that may be more important for determining the social-economic consequences. It turned out that the recurrence of critically very low yields in steppe regions may increase two fold as a result of global warming.     

Measuring household vulnerability to climate change—Why markets matter

Climate change and climate variability affect households in developing countries both directly through their impact on crop yields and indirectly through their impact on wages, food prices and the livelihoods of the poor. Therefore, vulnerable household groups cannot be identified without considering their position in and access to markets. I illustrate the effects – transmitted through markets – that are significant in household exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change by simulating productivity shocks to maize up to 2030 due to climate change in a computable general equilibrium model of Malawi. The results show that rural households with large land holdings may benefit from the adverse impact of climate change on maize yields as a result of increased maize prices. Urban poor and small-scale farmers are vulnerable to climate change due to the large portion of their incomes spent on food. Existing vulnerability measures that do not consider equilibrium effects and characterise all farmers as vulnerable may therefore be misleading.