Relationship between social stability and climate change in the Tang Dynasty

This paper quantitatively divides the Tang Dynasty into five prosperous and chaotic social periods,and discusses the relationship between the social division and climate change. The criteria for determining prosperity and chaos is refered to a set of systematic war data. In order to verify the reasonableness of the division,we applied 1-way-ANOVA to test the differences of each variable index between prosperity and chaos periods. The results of social division are as follows: from AD 618 to AD 626,and from AD 743 to AD 784,as well as from AD 860 to AD 907 were the chaotic periods;while from AD 627 to A0 742,and from AD 785 to AD 859 were the prosperous periods. The results of 1-way-ANOVA show that,climate change,general wars,rebellions,offensive border wars,defensive border wars,agricultural harvests,and population growth rates are all significantly different between prosperity and chaos,except the general external wars. War data were used to quantitatively represent the social changes in the Tang Dynasty. In chaotic periods,the main types of wars are rebellions and defensive border wars,while the main type of wars in prosperous periods are offensive border wars. To explore the relationship between climate change and social division means to make clear the relationship between climate change and wars. The results of correlation analysis show the decrease of agricultural harvest due to lower temperature and less precipitation leads to the shortage of resources supply,so that the likelihood of rebellions increase;while during the warm periods with abundant rainfall,increasing agricultural harvest stimulates rapid population growth. Due to the limitations of technology and land resources,offensive border wars for expansion are more likely to occur.     

唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系*

将唐代定量划分为治世与乱世5个时期,探讨了唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系。治世、乱世的划分标准参考一套系统的战争数据集,并用单因素方差分析的方法验证各项数据指标在治世与乱世间的差异性,从而说明唐代治世、乱世分期的合理性。治世、乱世分期结果如下: 公元618—626年为乱世,公元627—742年为治世,公元743—784年为乱世,公元785—859年为治世,公元860—907年为乱世。方差分析的结果显示,除了总边境战争外,气候变化、总战争、反叛战争、进攻型边境战争、防御型边境战争、农业丰歉等级和人口增长率在治世与乱世之间均表现出显著差异。用战争定量体现唐代社会治世、乱世变化,探讨气候变化与社会治、乱的关系即是探讨气候变化与战争的关系,乱世的主要战争类型是反叛战争和防御型边境战争,治世的主要战争类型是进攻型边境战争。相关分析结果表明,唐代温度降低、降水减少的时期,农业收成减少导致资源供给不足,更容易发生反叛战争;温度暖期、降水充沛的时期,农业产量提高,刺激了快速增长的人口,在技术改善能力有限、土地资源一定的情况下,更易发生以对外扩张为目的的边境战争,因此气候变化是影响唐代社会治乱变化的重要原因之一。     

山西省煤矿采空塌陷形成机制浅析

煤矿采空塌陷是山西省地质灾害的主要灾种.采空塌陷的发育程度由内因、外因共同决定.自然地理地质环境背景条件为内因,人类工程活动为外因.内因决定了采空塌陷的分布区域,外因则控制它的发育程度.内因通过外因表现出来.     

延安地区明代干旱灾害与气候变化研究

通过对陕西省延安地区明代（公元1368—1644年）历史资料的搜集和整理,对该时期干旱灾害等级、时间变化及成因进行了分析。结果表明：在明代的277年中,延安地区共发生干旱灾害91次,平均每3年发生1次。轻度干旱灾害发生17次,中等干旱灾害发生30次,大干旱灾害发生29次,特大干旱灾害发生15次,分别占到干旱灾害总数的18.7%、32.9%、31.9%和16.5%。大干旱灾害与特大干旱灾害发生频次高是明代延安地区干旱灾害的突出特点,指示明代总体为干旱气候期。延安明代干旱灾害可分为4个阶段,第一阶段为公元1368—1420年,为干旱灾害少发期;第二阶段为公元1421—1520年,为干旱灾害多发期;第三阶段为公元1521—1617年,为干旱灾害少发期;第四阶段为公元1618—1644年,为干旱灾害多发期。各等级干旱灾害特别是大与特大干旱灾害显著增加,指示第二、四阶段气候显著变干,降雨量明显减少。延安地区明代出现了2个极端干旱气候亚阶段,分别在1480—1499年和1626—1641年之间,当时年均降水量比现今少200 mm左右。     

山西省左云县煤层复采引起地表变形机制浅析

采空塌陷的发育程度由内因、外因共同决定.自然地理地质环境背景条件为内因,人类工程活动为外因.内因决定了采空塌陷的分布区域,外因则控制它的发育程度.内因通过外因表现出来.     

青海省明长城濒危遗址（湟中段）土体工程性质与保护措施

明长城遗址受自然地质作用、人为活动以及环境等因素的多方面作用,破坏相当严重．以青海省湟中县明代长城遗址保护工程为依托,实地调察了遗址发育的病害,通过室内测试分析,全面掌握了遗址土体工程性质,有针对性地提出裂隙填充注浆、裂隙注浆、土坯砌补、注浆回填、锚杆锚固等加固措施．从一期工程的加固效果来看,所用方法对夯土类长城加固具...     

5000 a BP以来辽西地区环境灾害事件与人地关系演变

依据辽西地区牧场泥炭层中高分辨率的孢粉分析和炭屑含量统计资料, 并通过对辽西地区自然环境演变与人类文化变迁历史的研究, 5000 a BP来的环境恶化可分为4个灾变过程: 即5000～4400 a BP 寒冷事件、2700 a BP左右寒冷事件、辽金时代的农业开发以及明清战乱.前两个过程与全球性的气候波动同步, 并对早期文明的发展进程产生了重要影响.后两个过程主要是由人类活动因素造成的, 同时也叠加了自然因素.目前区域内的环境恶化主要是由后两个过程引起的.     

非均匀载荷和内压作用下石油套管的抗挤能力分析

油井套管往往处于管内外复杂的受力环境下,揭示和分析这些因素对套管抗挤能力的影响就显得非常重要,并可为套管强度设计提供理论依据。根据套管在受到外部非均匀载荷和内压作用下的受力特点和材料力学理论,建立了单位长度的理想圆管的环向应力的计算模型,得到了套管内外壁的环向应力分布规律。计算结果表明：套管发生破坏失效位置在圆周方向与最大水平地应力成90°角的内壁上。依据Von Mises屈服准则由失效点得到了非均匀外挤载荷和内压作用下套管屈曲时抗外挤能力的新公式。实例计算表明：在影响套管的抗挤能力的因素中,外载荷的非均匀系数对套管抗外挤能力影响最大,外载荷的非均匀系数越大,套管抗外挤能力下降得越快;在外载荷非均匀性较小的条件下,提高套管外载荷承载能力可通过增大内压和减小套管径厚比来实现。     

基于网格化模型的黑河流域中游历史时期耕地分布模拟

黑河流域悠久的农业开发史和历史文献为研究历史时期耕地空间分布格局变化提供了有利条件.根据黑河流域历史时期土地开发利用的特点,深入分析了海拔、坡度、土壤、人口等自然及人文主导因子与耕地分布的关系,遴选出对耕地分布具有明显作用且易量化的影响因子,并以此为依据设计了一套历史耕地数据网格化模型,模拟了黑河流域历史时期耕地分布趋势.采用人均耕地面积与粮食单产2种途径,估算了明代以前黑河中游耕地面积总量.基于该模型并结合古遗址、遥感影像判别的结果,重建了黑河流域中游地区明代以前耕地的空间分布.     

基于文献记录的黑河流域历史时期旱涝特征分析

流域的旱涝灾害特征及其变化规律是流域水资源演变研究的重要内容。利用历史文献资料重建了西北内陆河黑河流域公元0-1949年的旱涝灾害等级序列,结合滑动平均、小波变换处理等方法,探讨了流域历史时期旱涝等级的频数特征、旱涝变化的周期特征及其与气候冷暖和人类活动之间的关系。对公元1000年以后的旱涝灾害规律进行分析,结果表明：流域存在5个旱灾高发阶段（1230-1270年、1430-1530年、1640-1760年、1860-1890年、1900-1940年）,3个涝灾高发期（1650-1690年、1730-1790年、1830-1910年）,并呈现出旱涝灾害频发的态势;1000-1949年期间,流域旱涝灾害存在4个准周期变化,对比发现这与太阳黑子活动等环境变化周期有紧密的联系;1580年以前,气候冷暖是影响旱涝灾害发生的主要因子,但16世纪以后,旱涝灾害交替频发,很可能是人类活动加剧了该现象。所以,定量辨析自然因素和人类活动对流域旱涝灾害的影响将是未来研究的重点方向。     

论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略简

The drought is a most severe natural disaster worldwide, which leads to great risk in human being. The drought disaster and risk have more prominent because of obvious climatic warming in the last hundred years. At present, the understanding of the internal laws of the occurrence of drought and drought risk is not comprehensive, and the recognition of the characteristics of the drought and drought risk under climatic warming is obscure. In this paper, we summarized systematically the domestic and overseas research progress of the drought and drought disaster risk, introduced the principle of the drought disaster transfer process and the essential features of drought disaster, analyzed synthetically the main characteristics and interactions among the key factors of the drought disaster risk, discussed the effect of climatic warming on drought and drought disaster risk, and probed into the basic requirement of drought disaster risk management. Above all, we provide the main protective measurements of the drought disaster and the main strategy of drought disaster risk management.     

An analysis of the drought in Yunnan, China, from a perspective of society drought severity

Drought disaster management entails not only understanding meteorological drought as a natural hazard but also evaluating the adverse societal impacts related to the economy and human lives. For the purpose of quantifying the drought severity from the perspective of society drought, a drought index, namely “Society Drought Severity Index” (SDSI), was put forward to analyze the drought in Yunnan Province of China. In SDSI for Yunnan, the drought severity was represented by the weighted discrepancy between the “appropriate” water needs and the total available water resources, inspired by the established Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Technically, the trend in historical water consumption records in agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors was applied to represent the appropriate water needs; an apparent “runoff” was used to represent the available water resource in Yunnan. The SDSI of Yunnan revealed a trend toward increasing drought severity, which resulted from a combination of meteorological changes and water needs escalation. Moreover, the spatial center of the 2010 drought in Yunnan based on SDSI was different from that identified by PDSI, which exactly reflected the influence of water needs on drought severity. The SDSI was deemed to be a beneficial tool for drought disaster management and drought risk governance.     

内蒙古西部乌达矿区煤层自燃的控制因素

煤层自燃是一个复杂的物理、化学和环境作用过程,是多种内在原因和外在条件综合作用的结果.本文分析了内蒙古乌达矿区煤层自然发火的内在原因和外在条件,揭示了煤层自燃的各种控制因素.影响煤层自燃的内在原因包括煤层厚度、变质程度、灰分含量、发热量、硫含量和有机显微组分含量等;外在条件包括地质构造、气候、水文地质、地形地貌、煤层的赋存状况、大矿和小煤窑的开采情况等.最后探讨了对不同成因的煤层自燃采取不同的预防和治理方法,为今后煤火的研究和治理奠定了理论基础.     

黄土崩塌的形成因素及其影响范围的确定方法

黄土崩塌是黄土地区常见的一种地质灾害,威胁着人类生产生活的安全。通过现场调查,认为黄土崩塌形成的内因主要为黄土土性特征、节理裂隙切割程度,外因主要为降雨作用、人类工程活动及生物活动。根据黄土崩塌常见的运动形式,提出崩塌体自由飞落及滚动情况下影响范围的理论公式。实例计算表明:若坡底地面水平,无论什么运动方式,崩塌影响范围为斜坡高度的0.4～0.6倍。随着坡度的变陡,崩滑距与斜坡坡高的比值也变大。当崩塌体自由飞落时,崩塌体的影响范围和碰撞点前的坡度有关。当崩塌体在坡面滑动时,崩塌体的影响范围和斜坡的坡度有关。研究结果可作为黄土地区黄土崩塌致灾范围预测方法,为黄土崩塌的防治提供理论依据。     

大别造山带岳西县斜坡变形破坏演化模式

岳西县自然斜坡在地球内、外动力共同作用下,容易变形并遭到破坏,造成人员伤亡和财产损失,严重制约了当地的经济发展。通过系统的工程地质调查和浅表生改造理论分析,查明了岳西县斜坡变形破坏特征及其成因,并探讨了其演化模式。结果表明,岳西县不同岩组的抗风化能力和力学特性存在差异,斜坡发生地质灾害的机理也不相同。根据斜坡结构特征,岳西县滑坡分为全风化层滑坡、强风化层滑坡和顺层岩质滑坡: 全风化层滑坡的滑面位于全风化层中或全风化层与强风化层的分界线处; 强风化层滑坡的滑面主要发育于强风化层与中风化层的分界线处; 顺层岩质滑坡主要发育于片麻岩发育的顺向坡中。根据变形破坏方式,岳西县崩塌可分为滑移式崩塌、倾倒式崩塌和坠落式崩塌: 滑移式崩塌主要由一组缓倾坡外结构面和另一组陡倾(坡外或者坡内)结构面控制; 倾倒式崩塌主要由一组陡倾坡内结构面和另一组近水平发育的结构面控制; 坠落式崩塌主要由一组结构面陡倾或近直立发育的结构面控制。岳西县滑坡多发育于风化壳厚度较大、岩体较松散、结构面强度低的地区; 崩塌多发育于斜坡高陡、岩质风化程度低、结构面发育的地区。研究成果对岳西县乃至整个大别山地区地质灾害的研究及防治工作具有一定的借鉴意义。     

An evaluation of heavy metal pollution within historic cultural strata at a specialized salt production site at Zhongba in the Three Gorges Reservoir region of the Yangtze River, China

The concentrations of Hg, Cu, Pb, Cr, and Ni in soil samples collected from a specialized salt production site at Zhongba in the Three Gorges Reservoir region of the Yangtze River in China were analyzed to reconstruct the heavy metal contamination contexts of different historic periods over the last 4,500 years. The results show that the observed sequence for individual levels of heavy metal pollution was as follows: Hg > Cu > Ni > Pb ≈ Cr. Hg pollution was high during every time period except the Ming Dynasty, with peaks being observed from the Spring and Autumn period. The pollution of Cu and Ni peaked during the Xi Zhou and Xia Dynasties, respectively. The pollution level of Pb has gradually increased since the Qin Dynasty and has coincided with the use of leaded gasoline. Cr contamination was moderate in all soil strata with little indication of change. Comprehensive heavy metal contamination was high during all of these periods, except during the Ming Dynasty, with peaks being observed between the Spring and Autumn Period and throughout the Warring States Period. Enrichment factors (EFs) were used to obtain information on heavy metal sources. The EFs indicate that most of the Hg and Cu originated from human activities, whereas Pb, Cr, and Ni predominantly came from crust weathering. Several preliminary inferences regarding the development of heavy metal utilization in the area were generated. Cu usage had developed well during the Xi Zhou Dynasty and the Autumn Period. Hg usage emerged during the Xia Dynasty and matured between the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period. Ni usage conceivably started during the Xia Dynasty. Other factors, such as religious activities, technology, environmental awareness and the intensity of salt production, have also affected heavy metal pollution concentrations.     

湖南煤炭坝矿区岩溶塌陷的形成与易发性分区

根据矿区地质情况、地下水长期观测资料和各类岩土工程勘察资料,对煤炭坝矿区岩溶塌陷的成因及类型进行了研究,确定了岩溶塌陷易发性的评价指标,并对岩溶塌陷易发性进行了分区预测。结果显示:煤炭坝矿区岩溶塌陷形成的内因是茅口组灰岩岩溶发育,外因是岩溶水的大量开采和疏排;岩溶塌陷影响因素主要与岩溶发育条件、地下水条件、覆盖层条件、地形地貌和人工活动相关。经预测,煤炭坝小河、贺石桥、大成桥、洋泉湖几个地下水径流带处为极易塌区;欧家大冲、沩水、瓦寺冲、秧田冲、五亩冲水渠、白水塘、谢家祠堂几个地表水体分布处为易塌区;几个煤矿区为难塌区(或中等塌陷区);福泉山与谷塘坡为基本稳定与稳定区。勘察验证,预测结果符合实际。      

Comprehensive analysis and quantitative evaluation of the influencing factors of karst collapse in groundwater exploitation area of Shiliquan of Zaozhuang, China

Karst collapse is a type of complicated environmental and geological hazard that can be caused by many factors: natural factors, such as rainfall, and human activities, such as overpumping of groundwater. Therefore, it is important to make a comprehensive analysis and evaluation on karst collapse risks and impacts of the influencing factors of karst collapse. However, how these factors affect karst collapse is still a problem, which has not yet been well solved. Taking the karst collapse in groundwater exploitation area of Shiliquan of Zaozhuang, China, as the example, and based on the comprehensive analysis of the formation rule and mechanism of karst collapse in this area, this paper mainly employs Quantification Theory to make a quantitative analysis and evaluation of various influencing factors of karst collapse in the groundwater exploitation area of Shiliquan of Zaozhuang. It thereby determines the impact of different influencing factors on karst collapse strength, and identifies the dominant and minor factors that affect the karst collapse. It also provides some criteria for the prevention of karst collapse and protection of karst water resources and environment.     

从史料记载看中国历史时期海面波动

广泛采用文字类海面变化“代用资料”是历史时期小尺度海面波动研究的重要手段，将史籍中有关海面波动的记载与考古学和沉积地层学证据相结合进行综合分析，可以初步认定：我国历史时期2ka年来，西汉至两晋为相对高海面时期（西汉晚期为显著高海面时期）；晋末至隋末为相对低海面时期，唐至南宋为相对高海面时期，尤其是8世纪，11世纪后期至13世纪初期出现显著高海面，而其间的唐末至五代，南宋后期至元初曾出现过海面下降；元明清时期总体为相对低海面时期，但在元中后期至明初，16世纪上半叶，17世纪末至18世纪初分别出现几次相对高海面。     

南京市历史文化层中土壤重金属元素的分布规律初探

文章对南京市城区不同地点出现的多个文化层中土壤的理化特征进行了系统研究。研究结果表明,文化层中土壤的重金属元素含量比南京市非城市土壤和背景平均值有增高的趋势,局部地段有巨量增高。从剖面纵向上看(时间上),这种增高现象主要发生在近现代、明清和六朝3个历史时期,这与历史上这些时期南京相对发达有关;而从横向地域上看(空间上),重金属元素含量的分布明显可以分成两组,两个组分别代表了地域上的不同,如明故宫-大行宫-中山东路一带历史上许多时期是皇城区,而内秦淮河流域一带则可能是古代的手工业和制造业区、商贸区和普通大众的生活区,这种明显的差别揭示出南京在各历史时期上的城市功能区是各不相同的。磁化率特征研究结果表明文化层中土壤的磁化率在各历史时期分布是不同的,磁化率的高峰时期有近现代、清朝和明朝时期;频率磁化率特征研究结果表明磁性矿物主要是外源输入造成的。与此同时磁化率高峰时期基本上与重金属元素增高地段是一致的,这进一步印证了文化层中重金属元素增高主要是由于外源污染物质的输入造成的。