How many measurements are required to construct an accurate sand budget in a large river? Insights from analyses of signal and noise

Morphological change in river channels is frequently evaluated in the context of mass balance sediment budgets. In a closed sediment budget, measurements of sediment influx and efflux are coupled with measured changes in channel topography to provide both spatial and temporal resolution, and independent estimates of the mass balance. For sediment budgets constructed over long river segments (~10² channel widths or greater) and long periods (~2 years or longer), spatial and temporal accumulation of measurement uncertainty, compounded by inadequate sampling frequency or spatial coverage, may produce indeterminate results. The degree of indeterminacy may be evaluated in the context of a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), which is a function of the magnitude of the mass balance and the magnitudes of potential systematic uncertainties associated with measurements and incomplete sampling. We report on a closed sand budget consisting of measurements of flux and two morphological surveys for a 50-km segment of a large river over a 3-year period. Accurate reporting of the magnitude and sign of the change in sand storage was only possible by using state-of-the-art techniques with high temporal frequency and large spatial extent. Together, a sand flux and morphological mass balance revealed that sand evacuation was temporally concentrated (~100% of mass change occurred during 19% of the study period) and highly localized (70% of mass change occurred in 12% of the study segment). A SNR analysis revealed that uncertainty resulting from undersampling may approach or exceed that caused by measurement uncertainty and that daily sampling of suspended-sand concentration or repeat mapping of at least 50% of the river segment was required to determine the sand budget with SNR > 1. The approach used here to analyze sand budget uncertainty is especially applicable to other river systems with large temporal variability in sediment transport and large spatial variability in erosion and deposition. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Revealing the natural complexity of topographic change processes through repeat surveys and decision‐tree classification

Topographic change processes (TCPs) are the mechanisms by which a landscape is interpreted to be experiencing landform deformation, and are defined by the specific actions occurring within a contiguous, localized region that cause sediment to be either deposited or eroded. Past topographic change studies have mostly been focused at the site scale. The goal of this study was to identify and delineate spatially explicit TCP types across the valley width in a 34‐km long cobble‐gravel river at the scale of one‐tenth of the bankfull channel width over a period of seven to nine years. To accomplish this, a new procedure was developed that analyzes spatial patterns of topographic change evident from differencing two raster digital elevation models and accounting for sources of uncertainty, then identifying and classifying those changes using a decision tree framework that invokes the locations of those changes as they relate to the locations of specific geographic characteristics. Once mapped, TCP polygons were analyzed for areal patterns and volumetric rates of change. Results showed that 19 unique TCP types occurred and that they have organized but complex spatial patterns. Within this study segment, overbank storage processes occurred over the most area and displaced the most net volume of sediment, while cohesive bank retreat created the largest net change in topographic elevations. Analyses of the TCPs reveal that the regulated lower Yuba River (LYR) is not experiencing the expected combination of channel incision and floodplain deposition commonly reported below dams. Instead, the LYR is a dynamic valley that is still adjusting valley‐wide to the upstream dam with a diverse suite of processes that cause the channel and floodplains to scour and fill in concert. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphic effects of a large flood on fluvial fans

The response of 12 fluvial fans near Sydney, Australia to a large storm between 2 and 4 February 1990 was determined by repeating previously surveyed longitudinal profiles and by undertaking detailed field observations of erosion and deposition. Peak rainfall intensities occurred on 3 and 4 February when between 173 and 193·8 mm were recorded. Return periods for 24 h duration peak rainfall ranged between 5·7 and 11·0 years on the annual maximum series at six stations within the study area and return periods for 48 h peak rainfall ranged between 13·5 and 29·4 years. Of the 12 fans, seven were trenched and five untrenched. The most significant geomorphic effects of the storm were recorded on the proximal region of the fans. However, fan response was highly variable, with one fan exhibiting no detectable change, three fans localized deposition, two fans spatially disjunct erosion and deposition, two fans channel avulsions, and seven fans fanhead trench reworking. Some fans exhibited more than one type of response. A four-stage, tentative cyclical model of fanhead development was constructed from the field data. Stage 1 refers to the episodic aggradation of the fanhead by localized deposition, spatially disjunct erosion and deposition and/or channel avulsions. Stage 2 represents the initiation of a fanhead trench when progressive aggradation locally exceeds a threshold slope leading to localized erosion. This erosion initially creates one or more discontinuous flow-aligned scour pools. Over time, the scour pools widen, deepen and extend both up- and downfan. Stage 3 refers to the coalescence of discontinuous scour pools into a continuous trench by the removal of intervening log and boulder steps. Stage 4 represents the backfilling phase of the trench once it has been overwidened and/or slope reduced. Aggradation then continues as for stage one.     

Channel change,fluvial geomorphology and river engineering: The case of the Afon Trannon,Mid-Wales

The Afon Trannon, a gravel-bed river in mid-Wales with a catchment area of 72 km², has recently been the subject of an engineering flood protection scheme. Following the enlargement and grading of the channel, lateral instability has produced considerable problems of maintenance. Geomorphological investigations are described which attempt to pinpoint the lessons of the scheme. Historical studies of floodplain sediments and channel change indicate firstly, an initially rather stable channel, but secondly a considerable, early history of channelization which may still have repercussions for system stability. This early channelization has now been modified in the recent scheme. Contemporary field study by survey and sediment tracing using the magnetic technique indicates the present instability of the sediments in a meandering channel given a trapezoidal cross-section and varied banks. Low-flow adjustments are as important as flood adjustments in the lower, straightened reach. Lessons for engineering schemes include the desirability of assessing erosion risk by rapid, cheap field techniques and historical investigations, and the consideration of more ecologically acceptable channel designs.     

Uncertainty in quantitative analyses of topographic change: error propagation and the role of thresholding

Topographic surveys inevitably contain error, introducing uncertainty into estimates of volumetric or mean change based on the differencing of repeated surveys. In the geomorphic community, uncertainty has often been framed as a problem of separating out real change from apparent change due purely to error, and addressed by removing measured change considered indistinguishable from random noise from analyses (thresholding). Thresholding is important when quantifying gross changes (i.e. total erosion or total deposition), which are systematically biased by random errors in stable parts of a landscape. However, net change estimates are not substantially influenced by those same random errors, and the use of thresholds results in inherently biased, and potentially misleading, estimates of net change and uncertainty. More generally, thresholding is unrelated to the important process of propagating uncertainty in order to place uncertainty bounds around final estimates. Error propagation methods for uncorrelated, correlated, and systematic errors are presented. Those equations demonstrate that uncertainties in modern net change analyses, as well as in gross change analyses using reasonable thresholds, are likely to be dominated by low-magnitude but highly correlated or systematic errors, even after careful attempts to reduce those errors. In contrast, random errors with little to no correlation largely cancel to negligible levels when averaged or summed. Propagated uncertainty is then typically insensitive to the precision of individual measurements, and is instead defined by the relative mean error (accuracy) over the area of interest. Given that real-world mean elevation changes in many landscape settings are often similar in magnitude to potential mean errors in repeat topographic analyses, reducing highly correlated or systematic errors will be central to obtaining accurate change estimates, while placing uncertainty bounds around those results provides essential context for their interpretation. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Modelling the decadal dynamics of reach-scale river channel evolution and floodplain turnover in CAESAR-Lisflood

Sedimentary deposits provide records of environmental change quantifying erosion fluxes conditioned by natural and anthropogenic disturbances. These fluxes are lagged by internal storage, particularly within floodplains, complicating reconstruction of environmental changes. The time sediment remains in storage underpins the interpretation of sedimentary records and accurate monitoring of pollutant fluxes. Turnover time is a measure of the timeframe to erode every floodplain surface. CAESAR-Lisflood is used to simulate fluvial evolution at reach scale, providing a basis for quantifying environmental changes on the timescales of sediment storage. We evaluate the accuracy of CAESAR-Lisflood simulations of channel changes and turnover times for alluvial floodplains using historical channel changes reconstructed for 10 reaches in northern England to quantify model accuracy in replicating mean annual erosion, deposition and channel lateral migration rates, alongside planform morphology. Here, a split-sample testing approach is adopted, whereby five of the reaches were calibrated and the resulting parameter values were applied to the other reaches to evaluate the transferability of parameter settings. The lowest overall integrated error identified the best-fit simulations and showed that modelled process rates were within ~25–50% of rates from historical reconstructions, generally. Calibrated parameters for some reaches are widely transferable, producing accurate geomorphic changes for some uncalibrated sites. However, large errors along some reaches indicate that reach-specific parameterization is recommended. Turnover times are underpinned by the assumption that areas of floodplain previously unvisited by the channel are reworked. This assumption has been challenged by studies that show floodplain (re)occupation rates vary spatially. However, this limitation is less important for the short-duration simulations presented here. The simulations reconstruct floodplain turnover times estimated by mapped rates mostly successfully, demonstrating the potential applicability of calibrated parameters over much longer timescales. Errors in the form of under-predicted erosion rates propagated, resulting in over-predicted turnover times by even greater magnitudes. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Developments in monitoring and modelling small-scale river bed topography

Recent research in fluvial geomorphology has emphasized the spatially distributed feedbacks amongst river channel topography, flow hydraulics and sediment transport. Although understanding of the behaviour of dynamic river channels has been increased markedly through detailed within-channel process studies, less attention has been given to the accurate monitoring and terrain modelling of river channel form using three-dimensional measurements. However, such information is useful in two distinct senses. Firstly, it is one of the necessary boundary conditions for a physically based, deterministic modelling approach in which three-dimensional topography and river discharge drive within-channel flow hydraulics and ultimately spatial patterns of erosion and deposition and therefore channel change. Secondly, research has shown that an alternative means of estimating the medium-term bedload transport rate can be based upon monitoring spatial patterns of erosion and deposition within the river channel. This paper presents a detailed assessment of the distributed monitoring and terrain modelling of river bed topography using a technique that combines rigorous analytical photogrammetry with rapid ground survey. The availability of increasingly sophisticated terrain modelling packages developed for civil engineering application allows the representation of topographic information as a landform surface. Intercomparison of landform surfaces allows visualization and quantification of spatial patterns of erosion and deposition. A detailed assessment is undertaken of the quality of the morphological information acquired. This allow some general comments to be made concerning the use of more traditional methods to monitor and represent small-scale river channel morphology.     

Rates of planimetric change in a proglacial gravel-bed braided river: Field measurement and physical modelling

Planimetric change was measured on daily hydrographs over two meltwater seasons using time-lapse images of the proglacial, gravel, braided, Sunwapta River, Canada. Significant planimetric change occurred on 10–15 days per year. Area of planimetric change correlated with peak and total daily meltwater hydrograph discharge. A clear threshold discharge can be identified below which no planform activity occurs, an intermediate range over which change occurs conditionally, and a peak flow range at which significant change always occurs. Field conditions were reproduced in a physical model in a laboratory flume. Photogrammetric DEMs of bed morphology and measurements of bedload output were made for each hydrograph experimental run. The physical model results for planimetric change had a threshold discharge for change, and trend with discharge, similar to the field data. The model data also show that planimetric change correlates strongly with volumes of erosion/deposition measured from successive DEMs, and with bedload transport rate. The relation between planimetric change and topographic change is also apparent from previous cross-section surveys at the field site. The results highlight the planimetric dynamics of braiding rivers in relation to discharge forcing, and the relationship between planimetric change, morphological change, and bedload transport in braided rivers. This also points to the potential use of measurements of planimetric change from time-lapse imagery as a low-cost method for high-frequency monitoring for braiding dynamics and also a surrogate for bedload transport measurement. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions.     

Channel erosion along the Carmel river,Monterey county,California

Historic maps, photographs, and channel cross-sections show that the channel of the Carmel River underwent massive bank erosion, channel migration, and aggradation in a major flood in 1911, then narrowed and incised by 1939. The channel was stable until 1978 and 1980, when bank erosion affected some reaches but not others. The narrowing and incision were in response to a lack of major floods after 1914 and construction in 1921 of a dam that cut off sediment supply from the most actively eroding half of the basin. Localized erosion in 1978 and 1980 occurred during low magnitude events along reaches whose bank strength had been reduced by devegetation. These events illustrate that the stability of a fluvial system can be disrupted either by application of a large erosive force in a high magnitude event (the 1911 flood) or in a low magnitude event, by reducing the resistance to erosion (bank devegetation). The Carmel River is a potentially unstable system. Its discharge and slope characteristics place it near the threshold between meandering and braided. On the Lower Carmel, the presence of bank vegetation can make the difference between a narrow, stable meandering channel and a wide shifting channel with braided reaches.     

River channel adjustments downstream from channelization works in England and Wales

Relatively little attention has been given to river channel adjustments that occur downstream from channelization works. This study is concerned with the nature of channel adjustments downstream from a total of 46 channelization works located in low and high energy environments in England and Wales. Channel changes are identified principally by the method of field survey and by reconstructing the original positions of eroded beds and banks. Use is also made of maps, aerial photographs, and engineering drawings of different dates and the technique of space-for-time substitution is applied. Enlargement of channel cross-sections through erosion had occurred downstream from a variety of types, sizes, and dates of channelization works. The maximum increase of channel size was 153 per cent. Out of a total of 14 sites with enlarged channel cross-sections, seven had undergone a change of width only, at a further three width increased rather than depth, and at the remaining four sites depth increases were dominant. These sites all have relatively high stream powers. Factors causing spatial variation of erosion included tree roots locally binding bank sediments and the occurrence of bends. Planform change had taken place at only one site. A further three high stream power sites had downstream reaches incised into bedrock and therefore did not exhibit adjustment. Channel enlargement is explained in terms of increased flood flows downstream from channelization works causing higher stream velocities, which in turn cause erosion, thereby increasing channel width and/or depth. Examination of flow records for 35 stations revealed flood events which would formerly have spread overbank but are now confined by the channelization works and are therefore likely to alter downstream flows. At sites with downstream change it is proposed that the energy of increased flows was sufficient to exceed a threshold required for erosion of perimeter sediments. By contrast the absence of change at a majority of sites in low energy lowland areas could be a reflection of both the incompetence of increased flows to erode and resistance provided by perimeter sediments. Sites with erosion features appear not to have yet attained new equilibrium conditions.     

Geomorphic effects of large debris flows on channel morphology at North Fork Mountain,eastern West Virginia,USA

Extreme rainfall in June 1949 and November 1985 triggered numerous large debris flows on the steep slopes of North Fork Mountain, eastern West Virginia. Detailed mapping at four sites and field observations of several others indicate that the debris flows began in steep hillslope hollows, propagated downslope through the channel system, eroded channel sediment, produced complex distributions of deposits in lower gradient channels, and delivered sediment to floodwaters beyond the debris-flow termini. Based on the distribution of deposits and eroded surfaces, up to four zones were identified with each debris flow: an upper failure zone, a middle transport/erosion zone, a lower deposition zone, and a sediment-laden floodwater zone immediately downstream from the debris-flow terminus. Geomorphic effects of the debris flows in these zones are spatially variable. The initiation of debris flows in the failure zones and passage through the transport/erosion zones are characterized by degradation; 2300 to 17 000 m³ of sediment was eroded from these zones. The total volume of channel erosion in the transport/erosion zones was 1·3 to 1·5 times greater than the total volume of sediment that initially failed, indicating that the debris flows were effective erosion agents as they travelled through the transport/erosion zones. The overall response in the deposition zones was aggradation. However, up to 43 per cent of the sediment delivered to these zones was eroded by floodwaters from joining tributaries immediately after debris-flow deposition. This sediment was incorporated into floodwaters downstream from the debris-flow termini causing considerable erosion and deposition in these channels. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震岩相识别概率表征方法

储层岩相分布信息是油藏表征的重要参数,基于地震资料开展储层岩相识别通常具有较强的不确定性.传统方法仅获取唯一确定的岩相分布信息,无法解析反演结果的不确定性,增加了油藏评价的风险.本文引入基于概率统计的多步骤反演方法开展地震岩相识别,通过在其各个环节建立输入与输出参量的统计关系,然后融合各环节概率统计信息构建地震数据与储层岩相的条件概率关系以反演岩相分布概率信息.与传统方法相比,文中方法通过概率统计关系表征了地震岩相识别各个环节中地球物理响应关系的不确定性,并通过融合各环节概率信息实现了不确定性传递的数值模拟,最终反演的岩相概率信息能够客观准确地反映地震岩相识别结果的不确定性,为油藏评价及储层建模提供了重要参考信息.模型数据和实际资料应用验证了方法的有效性.     

Spatial uncertainty in bias corrected climate change projections and hydrogeological impacts

The question of which climate model bias correction methods and spatial scales for correction are optimal for both projecting future hydrological changes as well as removing initial model bias has so far received little attention. For 11 climate models (CMs), or GCM/RCM – Global/Regional Climate Model pairing, this paper analyses the relationship between complexity and robustness of three distribution‐based scaling (DBS) bias correction methods applied to daily precipitation at various spatial scales. Hydrological simulations are forced by CM inputs to assess the spatial uncertainty of groundwater head and stream discharge given the various DBS methods. A unique metric is devised, which allows for comparison of spatial variability in climate model bias and projected change in precipitation. It is found that the spatial variability in climate model bias is larger than in the climate change signals. The magnitude of spatial bias seen in precipitation inputs does not necessarily correspond to the magnitude of biases seen in hydrological outputs. Variables that integrate basin responses over time and space are more sensitive to mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. Hydrological simulations forced by the least parameterized DBS approach show the highest error in mean and maximum groundwater heads; however, the most highly parameterised DBS approach shows less robustness in future periods compared with the reference period it was trained in. For hydrological impacts studies, choice of bias correction method should depend on the spatial scale at which hydrological impacts variables are required and whether CM initial bias is spatially uniform or spatially varying. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring bluff erosion part 1: terrestrial laser scanning methods for change detection

Human activities influence watershed sediment dynamics in profound ways, often resulting in excessive loading of suspended sediment to rivers. One of the primary factors limiting our ability to effectively manage sediment at the watershed scale has been our inability to adequately measure relatively small erosion rates (on the order of millimeters to centimeters per year) over annual and sub‐annual time scales on spatially‐extensive landforms, such as river banks and bluffs. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) can be employed to address this need. TLS collects high‐resolution data allowing for more accurate monitoring of erosion rates and processes, and provides a new opportunity to make precise measurements of geomorphic change on vertical landforms like banks and bluffs, but challenges remain. This research highlights challenges and limitations of using TLS for change detection on river banks and bluffs including the presence of vegetation, natural surface crenulations, and difficulties with creating benchmarks, and provides solutions developed to overcome these limitations. Results indicate that data processing algorithms for change detection can have a significant impact on the calculated erosion rates, with different methods producing results that can vary by over 100%. The most accurate change detection technique compares a point cloud to a triangulated irregular network (TIN) along a set of vectors that accommodate bluff curvature. This paper outlines a variety of methods used to measure bluff change via TLS and explains the accompanying error analysis that supports these methods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the probability of river channel adjustment

River channels respond not only to natural external controls, and natural controls internal to individual drainage basins, but also to the influence of human activity. Although many site-specific instances of change have been documented, the complexity of the process interactions means that very little is known about the general nature of different styles of adjustment, or their relative sensitivity to drainage basin controls. Data obtained from the Thames Basin, southeast England, are used in a probabilistic approach to differentiate between four styles of river channel adjustment and a variety of drainage basin characteristics. Adopting a probabilistic approach quantifies the degree of confidence attributable to any prediction of river channel adjustment while acknowledging that certainties are difficult to obtain in studies of the natural environment. This approach could thus allow environmental planning decisions to be made with a quantified degree of uncertainty. Four multivariate logistic regression models are described which use a combination of continuous and categorical variables to associate drainage basin characteristics with four styles of river channel adjustment derived from a reconnaissance evaluation survey. In comparison, it is shown that laterally migrating river channels are the most common ‘natural’ channel type in the Thames Basin, and their probability of occurrence rises to 71 per cent in sand/gravel environments. In channels regulated by low weirs, deposition is the most likely channel activity where gradients are lower than 0·0040, whilst above this threshold the majority of channels are morphologically inactive. In urban channels, many of which are also lined by concrete, the likelihood of obtaining a stable channel is mostly in excess of 80 per cent. In channels straightened during this century, deposition is most likely in gradients below 0·0050, whereas erosional enlargement is most probable above this value. In channels which were initially channelized prior to this century, deposition gives way to stability at a threshold gradient of 0·0080.     

Historical channel narrowing along the Rio Grande near Albuquerque,New Mexico in response to peak discharge reductions and engineering: magnitude and uncertainty of change from air photo measurements

Over the last century, geomorphic processes along the Middle Rio Grande have been altered by flood control and bank stabilization projects, intensified land and water use, and climate change. In response to potential risks to infrastructure and ecological integrity, recent (1985–2008) adjustment was investigated and historic (1918–1985) changes in Rio Grande channel planform through the Albuquerque, New Mexico, area were reviewed, especially in relation to changes in annual peak discharge and river engineering measures. Using a GIS, channel characteristics were digitized from georeferenced photographs and analyzed with particular attention to quantifying potential measurement error and its propagation. Error associated with average channel widths and channel area ranged between 4 and 13%. For smaller polygons, e.g. islands, error was higher (11 to 40% for width and >200% for area) because width error is large relative to polygon width. Between 1918 and 1963, average channel widths decreased 8 m/yr, from 516 ± 67 m to 176 ± 7 m, mostly due to decreasing peak flows and the implementation of flood control and other engineering measures. From 1985 to 2008, widths decreased 0·7 m/yr, from 176 ± 23 m to 146 ± 5 m, accompanied by an increase in vegetated island area which largely coincided with low flow periods. Narrowing was concentrated at tributary inputs and in the upstream part of the reach, where bedload trapping by Cochiti Dam has caused degradation. Bank protection structures and dense vegetation limit bank erosion in the reach, but erosion is significant where expanding islands, incision, and increased meandering force water against banks. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.