Hydrodynamic response of a fringing coral reef to a rise in mean sea level

Ningaloo Reef, located along the northwest coast of Australia, is one of the longest fringing coral reefs in the world extending ~300 km. Similar to other fringing reefs, it consists of a barrier reef ~1–6 km offshore with occasional gaps, backed by a shallow lagoon. Wave breaking on the reef generates radiation stress gradients that produces wave setup across the reef and lagoon and mean currents across the reef. A section of Ningaloo Reef at Sandy Bay was chosen as the focus of an intense 6-week field experiment and numerical simulation using the wave model SWAN coupled to the three-dimensional circulation model ROMS. The physics of nearshore processes such as wave breaking, wave setup and mean flow across the reef was investigated in detail by examining the various momentum balances established in the system. The magnitude of the terms and the distance of their peaks from reef edge in the momentum balance were sensitive to the changes in mean sea level, e.g. the wave forces decreased as the mean water depth increased (and hence, wave breaking dissipation was reduced). This led to an increase in the wave power at the shoreline, a slight shift of the surf zone to the lee side of the reef and changes in the intensity of the circulation. The predicted hydrodynamic fields were input into a Lagrangian particle tracking model to estimate the transport time scale of the reef-lagoon system. Flushing time of the lagoon with the open ocean was computed using two definitions in renewal of semi-enclosed water basins and revealed the sensitivity of such a transport time scale to methods. An increase in the lagoon exchange rate at smaller mean sea-level rise and the decrease at higher mean sea-level rise was predicted through flushing time computed using both methods.     

Pleistocene and recent deglaciation in Svalbard: implications for tide-gauge,GPS and VLBI measurements

Apart from sea-level change caused by ocean-water volume change, tide-gauge measurements are also affected by vertical movement of the earth's surface and by geoid change. To study these phenomena more closely, we consider the tide-gauge station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, where vertical movements are controlled by GPS and VLBI measurements. Whereas the tide-gauge record indicates a relative sea-level fall of about 2.6 mm a⁻¹, the GPS and VLBI measurements suggest a land uplift of about 5.6 mm a⁻¹. We predict the deglaciation-induced vertical movement and geoid change by combining the Pleistocene ice model ICE-3G with the newly developed Recent ice model SVAL. We find that, for particular deglaciation histories and earth models with an asthenosphere, the predicted land uplift matches the measured land uplift rather closely. However, for these combinations of ice and earth models, the predicted sea-level fall is consistently too large by at least 3 mm a⁻¹. Considering the uncertainties and simplifications involved in the study, the discrepancy weakly suggests a sea-level rise due to increased ocean-water volume.     

The response of coastal marshes to sea-level rise: Survival or submergence?

In order to maintain an elevation in the intertidal zone at which marsh vegetation can survive, vertical accretion of the marsh surface must take place at a rate at least equal to the rate of relative sea-level rise. Net vertical accretion of coastal marshes is a result of interactions between tidal imports, vegetation and depositional processes. All of these factors are affected, directly or indirectly, by alterations in marsh hydrology which might occur as a result of sea-level rise. The overall response of coastal marshes to relative sea-level rise depends upon the relative importance of the inorganic and organic components of the marsh soil and the impact of increased hydroperiod on net accumulation. The varied combination of factors contributing to sediment supply, and their complexity at the scale of individual marshes, means that predicting the response of suspended sediment concentration in marsh floodwater to any changes which may occur as a result of sea-level rise, at anything other than the local scale is unlikely to be accurate. The impact of sea-level rise on net below-ground production is also complex. The sensitivity of certain species to waterlogging and soil chemical changes could result in a change in species composition or the migration of vegetation zones. Consequently, predicting the net impact of sea-level rise on organic matter accumulation is fraught with difficulties and requires improved understanding of interactions between vegetation, soil and hydrologic processes.     

Application of a stochastic differential equation to the prediction of shoreline evolution

Shoreline evolution due to longshore sediment transport is one of the most important problems in coastal engineering and management. This paper describes a method to predict the probability distributions of long-term shoreline positions in which the evolution process is based on the standard one-line model recast into a stochastic differential equation. The time-dependent and spatially varying probability density function of the shoreline position leads to a Fokker–Planck equation model. The behaviour of the model is evaluated by applying it to two simple shoreline configurations: a single long jetty perpendicular to a straight shoreline and a rectangular beach nourishment case. The sensitivity of the model predictions to variations in the wave climate parameters is shown. The results indicate that the proposed model is robust and computationally efficient compared with the conventional Monte Carlo simulations.     

Rapid adjustment of shoreline behavior to changing seasonality of storms: observations and modelling at an open‐coast beach

An 8‐year time series of weekly shoreline data collected at the Gold Coast, Australia, is used to examine the temporal evolution of a beach, focusing on the frequency response of the shoreline to time‐varying wave height and period. Intriguingly, during 2005 the movement of the shoreline at this site changed from a seasonally‐dominated mode (annual cycle) to a storm‐dominated (~monthly) mode. This unexpected observation provides the opportunity to explore the drivers of the observed shoreline response. Utilizing the calibration of an equilibrium shoreline model to explore the time‐scales of underlying beach behavior, the best‐fit frequency response (days^?1) is shown to be an order of magnitude higher post‐2004, suggesting that a relatively subtle change in wave forcing can drive a significant change in shoreline response. Analysis of available wave data reveals a statistically significant change in the seasonality of storms, from predominantly occurring at the start of the year pre‐2005 to being relatively consistent throughout the year after this time. The observed change from one mode of shoreline variability to another suggests that beaches can adapt relatively quickly to subtle changes in the intra‐annual distribution of wave energy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recent shifts in coastline change and shoreline stabilization linked to storm climate change

Since cuspate coastlines are especially sensitive to changes in wave climate, they serve as potential indicators of initial responses to changing wave conditions. Previous work demonstrates that Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, North Carolina, which are largely unaffected by shoreline stabilization efforts, have become increasingly asymmetric over the past 30 years, consistent with model predictions for coastline response to increases in Atlantic Ocean summer wave heights and resulting changes in the distribution of wave‐approach angles. Historic and recent shoreline change observations for Cape Fear, North Carolina, and model simulations of coastline response to an increasingly asymmetric wave climate in the presence of beach nourishment, produce comparable differences in shoreline change rates in response to changes in wave climate. Results suggest that the effect of beach nourishment is to compensate for – and therefore to mask – natural responses to wave climate change that might otherwise be discernible in patterns of shoreline change alone. Therefore, this case study suggests that the effects of wave climate change on human‐modified coastlines may be detectable in the spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline stabilization activities. Similar analyses of cuspate features in areas where the change in wave climate is less pronounced (i.e. Fishing Point, Maryland/Virginia) and where local geology appears to exert control on coastline shape (i.e. Cape Canaveral, Florida), suggest that changes in shoreline configuration that may be arising from shifting wave climate are currently limited to sandy wave‐dominated coastlines where the change in wave climate has been most pronounced. However, if hurricane‐generated wave heights continue to increase, large‐scale shifts in patterns of erosion and accretion will likely extend beyond sensitive cuspate features as the larger‐scale coastline shape comes into equilibrium with changing wave conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of northwest Pacific guyots: General results from Ocean Drilling Program legs 143 and 144

Results of the Ocean Drilling Program legs 143 and 144, which investigated the nature and origin of seven guyots in the northwest Pacific Ocean, document a history of prolonged volcanism (128–84 Ma), followed by subsidence, accumulation of shallow-water carbonates, emersion following a sea-level fall, then continued subsidence, and drowning. Generally, the life span of a guyot is of the order of 5–20 million years. The stratigraphic sequence in each guyot consists of 3–10 m-thick, shoaling-upward cycles, which display a 100-Ka periodicity perhaps related to sea-level fluctuations. The drilling results indicate that the demise of the shallow-water carbonate platforms is related to either a temporal (110–100 Ma) event or paleolatitude location (0–10°S) involving nutrient-rich water not conducive to production of calcium carbonate by shallow-water organisms. Following emergence and erosion, re-submergence occurred during a rise of sea-level. However, the rate of sediment accumulation was unable to keep pace with the rate of sea-level rise and the guyots drowned. Subsidence continued as the lithospheric plate cooled. The majority of guyots are now at ~ 1500 m below sea-level. Plate movements over the past 100 million years have carried the guyots from ~ 14°S to their current location in the northwest Pacific. Guyots are flat-topped submerged volcanic islands capped by thick sequences of shallow-water carbonates. The flat-top morphology is constructional, not related to wave planation as originally thought and reported in most textbooks.     

Eigenanalysis of recent United States sea levels

Spatial and temporal patterns of recent sea-level rise along the United States coastline have been examined to ascertain rates of rise, and possible causes for high-frequency fluctuations in sea level. Eigenanalysis identified several distinct coastal compartments within each of which sea-level behavior is consistent. The United States east coast has three of these compartments: one north of Cape Cod, where sea-level rise increases with distance to the north; one between Cape Cod and Cape Hatteras where sea-level rise increases to the south; and the third from Cape Hatteras south to Pensacola, where sea-level rise decreases to the south. The western gulf coast represents another compartment (poorly sampled in this study), where subsidence is partly due to compaction. The final compartment is along the United States west coast, where poor spatial sampling produces a highly spatially variable sea-level record that has some temporal uniformity. Spectral analysis shows a dominant time scale of six years for sea-level variability, with different coastal compartments responding relatively in or out of phase. No evidence for increased rates of sea-level rise over the past 10 years was found. This objective statistical technique is a valuable tool for identifying spatial and temporal sea-level trends in the United States. It may later prove useful for identifying elusive world-wide trends of sea level, related to glacial melting, glacial rebound, tectonism, and volcanic activity.     

Past and future evolution in the Thames Estuary

In order to manage estuaries effectively, it is important to be able to predict how they are likely to change in the future, both to natural and anthropogenic forcing. This paper looks at historical morphological development of the Thames Estuary, taking into account the effect of human intervention, and uses the ASMITA morphological model to predict the long-term evolution of the estuary into the future, assuming either historic rates of sea-level rise or accelerated sea-level rise. The historical sediment budget for the Thames Estuary was examined and source and sink terms, including fluvial sediment supply and historical dredging rates, were included in the ASMITA model. ASMITA predictions showed good overall agreement with the historical data, highlighting the benefits of detailed historical review and the inclusion of anthropogenic effects in the model. Future ASMITA predictions for the period 2000 to 2100 suggest that, under both historical and accelerated sea-level rise scenarios, the estuary will experience accretion, but, for the accelerated sea-level rise scenario, accretion will be at a slower rate than sea level rise. With accelerated sea-level rise, intertidal profiles were predicted to be up to 0.5 m lower with respect to high water.     

Ocean tides and resonance

Tidal currents and surface amplitudes are calculated globally for the dominating diurnal and semidiurnal constituents using an established tidal model under a range of altered bathymetry. The purpose is to evaluate if the well-known amplification of the global tides during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is related to changed propagation properties for the tidal wave or to changed damping due to removal of shelf seas. The response of the tides and tidal dissipation to future sea-level rise is also discussed. The tides in the present and LGM oceans were simulated first, followed by runs where the present day bathymetry was used but the shelf seas removed by the introduction of vertical walls or where sea level is allowed to rise. Previously reported results regarding tidal amplitudes and dissipation rates are reproduced in the control runs. The runs without shelf seas show significantly enhanced tidal amplitudes in the North Atlantic, whereas sea-level rise of 5 m above present levels show a significant shift in the amphidromic points on a local and regional scale but had a limited effect on the open ocean tides. Simulations with very large sea-level rise show a significantly decreased global tidal dissipation, whereas experiments without friction in present-day shallow water display results similar to those with no shelf seas. The results all point towards changing damping properties due to the removal of shelf seas as being the mechanism behind the LGM amplification, and they imply the importance of implementing future sea-level changes properly in tidal simulations.     

Global sensitivity analysis for a numerical model of radionuclide migration from the RRC “Kurchatov Institute” radwaste disposal site

Today, in different countries, there exist sites with contaminated groundwater formed as a result of inappropriate handling or disposal of hazardous materials or wastes. Numerical modeling of such sites is an important tool for a correct prediction of contamination plume spreading and an assessment of environmental risks associated with the site. Many uncertainties are associated with a part of the parameters and the initial conditions of such environmental numerical models. Statistical techniques are useful to deal with these uncertainties. This paper describes the methods of uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis that are applied to a numerical model of radionuclide migration in a sandy aquifer in the area of the RRC “Kurchatov Institute” radwaste disposal site in Moscow, Russia. We consider 20 uncertain input parameters of the model and 20 output variables (contaminant concentration in the observation wells predicted by the model for the end of 2010). Monte Carlo simulations allow calculating uncertainty in the output values and analyzing the linearity and the monotony of the relations between input and output variables. For the non monotonic relations, sensitivity analyses are classically done with the Sobol sensitivity indices. The originality of this study is the use of modern surrogate models (called response surfaces), the boosting regression trees, constructed for each output variable, to calculate the Sobol indices by the Monte Carlo method. It is thus shown that the most influential parameters of the model are distribution coefficients and infiltration rate in the zone of strong pipe leaks on the site. Improvement of these parameters would considerably reduce the model prediction uncertainty.     

Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Sea Water Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers

Despite its purported importance, previous studies of the influence of sea-level rise on coastal aquifers have focused on specific sites, and a generalized systematic analysis of the general case of the sea water intrusion response to sea-level rise has not been reported. In this study, a simple conceptual framework is used to provide a first-order assessment of sea water intrusion changes in coastal unconfined aquifers in response to sea-level rise. Two conceptual models are tested: (1) flux-controlled systems, in which ground water discharge to the sea is persistent despite changes in sea level, and (2) head-controlled systems, whereby ground water abstractions or surface features maintain the head condition in the aquifer despite sea-level changes. The conceptualization assumes steady-state conditions, a sharp interface sea water-fresh water transition zone, homogeneous and isotropic aquifer properties, and constant recharge. In the case of constant flux conditions, the upper limit for sea water intrusion due to sea-level rise (up to 1.5 m is tested) is no greater than 50 m for typical values of recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and aquifer depth. This is in striking contrast to the constant head cases, in which the magnitude of salt water toe migration is on the order of hundreds of meters to several kilometers for the same sea-level rise. This study has highlighted the importance of inland boundary conditions on the sea-level rise impact. It identifies combinations of hydrogeologic parameters that control whether large or small salt water toe migration will occur for any given change in a hydrogeologic variable.     

Long-term sea-level variations in the central Great Barrier Reef

Low frequency sea-level variations and associated geostrophic currents in the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region near Townsville are studied using optimally-lagged multivariate regression. The analyses show that pressure-adjusted coastal sea levels and mid-shelf geostrophic currents are influenced predominantly by local along-shelf wind stress at the weather time-scale, and by climatic variables, such as atmospheric pressure and temperature, at seasonal and inter-annual time-scales. These forcing variables can specify sea levels over annual and inter-annual time-scales with a forecasting skill of 0.53 and 0.22, respectively (where 1.0 is perfect skill). Associated along-shelf geostrophic currents can be forecast with a skill of 0.57 over an annual time scale. If, instead, absolute coastal sea levels or offshore sea-level differences are used to specify the along-shelf geostrophic current, the forecasting skill is 0.75. A characteristic El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response is detected for time periods up to 25 years in monthly sea-level both at Townsville and at western Pacific island sea-level stations. This spatially coherent response varies in intensity and phase within the Coral Sea. Sea-level differences show a pattern which characterizes known features of the large-scale circulation of the Coral Sea. These very low frequency sea-level variations in the Coral Sea must be taken into account to obtain accurate predictions of along-shelf geostrophic current variations on seasonal and inter-annual time scales. Regression analysis and a diagnostic river plume model show that the influence of the major rivers can produce sea-level changes due to buoyancy of order 5 cm. The corresponding errors in geostrophic velocities estimated using pressure-adjusted Townsville sea-level data alone are of order 5 cm s⁻¹ rms.     

On the sensitivity of the sedimentary system in the East Frisian Wadden Sea to sea-level rise and wave-induced bed shear stress

The paper addresses the individual and collective contribution of different forcing factors (tides, wind waves, and sea-level rise) to the dynamics of sediment in coastal areas. The results are obtained from simulations with the General Estuarine Transport Model coupled with a sediment transport model. The wave-induced bed shear stress is formulated using a simple model based on the concept that the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) associated with wind waves is a function of orbital velocity, the latter depending on the wave height and water depth. A theory is presented explaining the controls of sediment dynamics by the TKE produced by tides and wind waves. Several scenarios were developed aiming at revealing possible trends resulting from realistic (observed or expected) changes in sea level and wave magnitude. The simulations demonstrate that these changes not only influence the concentration of sediment, which is very sensitive to the magnitude of the external forcing, but also the temporal variability patterns. The joint effect of tides and wave-induced bed shear stress revealed by the comparison between theoretical results and simulations is well pronounced. The intercomparison between different scenarios demonstrates that the spatial patterns of erosion and deposition are very sensitive to the magnitude of wind waves and sea-level rise. Under a changing climate, forcing the horizontal distribution of sediments adjusts mainly through a change in the balance of export and import of sediment from the intertidal basins. The strongest signal associated with this adjustment is simulated North of the barrier islands where the evolution of sedimentation gives an integrated picture of the processes in tidal basins.     

Sand wave migration near the southeastern corner of Martha's Vineyard,Massachusetts, USA

Sand waves of approximately 2 m in height were observed to migrate nearly 40 m with counterclockwise rotation between two bathymetric surveys performed three months apart near the southeastern corner of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. The region is characterized by strong tidal currents, intermittent energetic surface wave events, and shallow water with local depth ranging from 2 to 7 m. This study uses the process-based model, Delft3D, with a three-dimensional approach to examine the sand wave dynamics by incorporating surface waves, winds, currents, and bathymetric observations. The model successfully simulates sand wave migration in comparisons to observations. Model sensitivity analyses show that the sand wave migration reduces by 65% with the absence of the surface waves. The modeled sand wave migration speed is correlated with the tidal current Shields parameter, and sharp increases in migration speed occur when the wave-driven Shields parameter increases in response to energetic surface wave events. The combined effect of tides, surface waves, and bathymetry is the origin of the rotational aspect of the sand wave, using the Shields parameter as an indicator of tidal currents and surface wave influence on sand wave dynamics.     

Potentialities,uncertainties and complexities in the response of coral reefs to future sea-level rise

Coral islands formed of largely unconsolidated sands only a few metres above sea level are thought to be particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise consequent upon global warming. However, scenarios which predict catastrophic flooding and loss of island area need reassessment, particularly in the light of the continued downwards revision of projected rates of future sea-level rise. Revised questions concern the interactions between reef growth and sea-level change, biophysical constraints on coral growth, and the importance to reef systems of potential changes in the magnitude, frequency and location of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. It is clear that most reefs have the growth potential to meet even the highest of future sea-level rise scenarios, but too little is known about physiological and physical constraints to reef growth to adequately evaluate the importance of these two factors in constraining this potential at the present time. Future sea-level rise in the tropical oceans, and coral reef responses, will take place against a backdrop of inter-regional differences in Holocene sea levels, resulting from the varying interaction of eustatic and hydro-isostatic processes. These differences have generated varying constraints on the development of modern reefs and varying inherited topographies upon which future sea-level changes will be superimposed. These controls are particularly important in assessing differences in vulnerability to future sea-level rise for reef islands in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.     

Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inference

Predicting long‐term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) analysis to coherently admit multiple data sources and uncertainties including data inputs, parameters, and model structures to identify the potential consequences of climate change on soil moisture and streamflow at the head watersheds ranging from low to high elevations in the southern Appalachian region of the United States. We have considered climate change scenarios based on three greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Interovernmental Panel on Climate Change: A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios. Full predictive distributions based on HB models are capable of providing rich information and facilitating the summarization of prediction uncertainties. With predictive uncertainties taken into account, the most pronounced change in soil moisture and streamflow would occur under the A2 scenario at both low and high elevations, followed by the A1B scenario and then by the B1 scenario. Uncertainty in the change of soil moisture is less than that of streamflow for each season, especially at high elevations. A reduction of soil moisture in summer and fall, a reduction or slight increase of streamflow in summer, and an increase of streamflow in winter are predicted for all three scenarios at both low and high elevations. The hydrological predictions with quantified uncertainties from a HB model could aid more‐informed water resource management in developing mitigation plans and dealing with water security under climate change. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shoreline change at an infinite jetty for wave time series

Future shoreline changes on a sandy beach with a structure such as a jetty or groin can be estimated when wave time series is known (i.e. sequence of wave height, period, and direction). This paper presents an extension of an existing solution (Pelnard-Considere, 1956) for the linearized partial differential equation for shoreline change at an infinite jetty where waves are time varying and when the angle of the shoreline is small with respect to the waves breaking at the shoreline. The novel solution provided in this paper allows the previous constant wave condition solution to be extended to the case where wave properties (i.e. wave direction, wave height, and wave period) are time varying. Example usage of the method presented shows that shorelines may be of different final plan form shape for time varying wave conditions even though the sediment transport along adjacent beaches is not spatially varying (i.e. spatially constant) from time step to time step. Although this difference in shape may have been known previously using numerical models, it could not be proved analytically. Reversals of wave height, period, and direction time series are shown to provide different final shoreline shapes even though the time series consists of the same waves although in different ordered time. The solution provided will allow one line numerical shoreline models to be tested using an analytic solution.     

Does sea-level rise have an impact on saltwater intrusion?

Climate change effects are expected to substantially raise the average sea level. It is widely assumed that this raise will have a severe adverse impact on saltwater intrusion processes in coastal aquifers. In this study we hypothesize that a natural mechanism, identified here as the “lifting process,” has the potential to mitigate, or in some cases completely reverse, the adverse intrusion effects induced by sea-level rise. A detailed numerical study using the MODFLOW-family computer code SEAWAT was completed to test this hypothesis and to understand the effects of this lifting process in both confined and unconfined systems. Our conceptual simulation results show that if the ambient recharge remains constant, the sea-level rise will have no long-term impact (i.e., it will not affect the steady-state salt wedge) on confined aquifers. Our transient confined-flow simulations show a self-reversal mechanism where the wedge which will initially intrude into the formation due to the sea-level rise would be naturally driven back to the original position. In unconfined systems, the lifting process would have a lesser influence due to changes in the value of effective transmissivity. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also completed to understand the sensitivity of this self-reversal effect to various aquifer parameters.     

Reconstructing and understanding the impacts of storms and surges,southern North Sea

Coastal barriers are ubiquitous globally and provide a vital protective role to valuable landforms, habitats and communities located to landward. They are, however, vulnerable to extreme water levels and storm wave impacts. A detailed record of sub‐annual to annual; decadal; and centennial rates of shoreline retreat in frontages characterized by both high (> 3 m) and low (< 1 m) dunes is established for a barrier island on the UK east coast. For four storms (2006–2013) we match still water levels and peak significant wave heights against shoreline change at high levels of spatial densification. The results suggest that, at least in the short‐term, shoreline retreat, of typically 5–8 m, is primarily driven by individual events, separated by varying periods of barrier stasis. Over decadal timescales, significant inter‐decadal changes can be seen in both barrier onshore retreat rates and in barrier extension rates alongshore. Whilst the alongshore variability in barrier migration seen in the short‐term remains at the decadal scale, shoreline change at the centennial stage shows little alongshore variability between a region of barrier retreat (at 1.15 m a^?1) and one of barrier extension. A data‐mining approach, synchronizing all the variables that drive shoreline change (still water level, timing of high spring tides and peak significant wave heights), is an essential requirement for validating models that predict future shoreline responses under changing sea level and storminess. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.