Interannual Variability and Scenarios Projection of Sea Ice in Bohai Sea Part I: Variation Characteristics and Interannual Hindcast

The Bohai Sea is one of the southernmost areas for sea ice formation in the northern hemisphere.Sea ice disasters in this body of water severely affect marine activities and the safety of coastal residents.In this study,we analyze the variation characteristics of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea and establish an annual regression model based on predictable mode analysis method.The results show the following:1)From 1970 to 2018,the average ice grade is(2.6±0.8),with a maximum of 4.5 and a minimum of 1.0.Liaodong Bay(LDB)has the heaviest ice conditions in the Bohai Sea,followed by Bohai Bay(BHB)and Laizhou Bay(LZB).Interannual variation is obvious in all three bays,but the linear decreasing trend is significant only in BHB.2)Three modes are obtained from empirical orthogonal function analysis,namely,single polarity mode with the same sign of anomaly in all of the three bays and strong interannual variability(82.0%),the north–south dipole mode with BHB and LZB showing an opposite sign of anomalies to that in LDB and strong decadal variations(14.5%),and a linear trend mode(3.5%).Critical factors are analyzed and regression equations are established for all the principal components,and then an annual hindcast model is established by synthesizing the results of the three modes.This model provides an annual spatial prediction of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea for the first time,and meets the demand of operational sea ice forecasting.     

The coupled characteristics of the physical process between sea ice of two poles and Tibetan land surface

In order to discuss the characteristics of sea ice change of strong signal area on Antarctic and Arctic and the correlation between the thermal state on the land surface of Tibetan Plateau and the atmosphere circulation of North Hemisphere or the climate changes in China, and to study the feedback mechanism among “three-pole” factors, the earlier stage “three-pole” strong signal characteristics by using statistic methods such as teleconnection,which affect the regional climate changes in China and East Asia. The cross-correlation feature and coupling effect between ice caps of North and South pole and water-thermal state on Tibetan Plateau surface are discussed as well. The contribution of three-pole's earlier stage factors to China's summer climate change and the influence of its dynamic structure are compared here. The formation mechanisms of global climate change and regional climate change of China are investigated from the aspect of qualitative correlation mode of global sea-land-air-ice.     

Three Decades of Sea-Ice Variability in Jiaozhou Bay Revealed by Landsat Observations

In this study, we used Landsat images and meteorological data to examine the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of sea ice in Jiaozhou Bay(JZB) between 1986 and 2016. The results show that JZB is not always covered by sea ice in winter, but in some extreme cases, sea ice has covered more than one-third of the sea area of the bay. Sea ice in JZB has generally formed between January 1 and February 5, primarily along the coast, and gradually expanding to the central area of the bay. Both meteorological and artificial factors have played important roles in modulating the sea ice distribution. We found sea ice coverage to have been strongly correlated with the accumulated freezing-degree days nine days before the occurrence of sea ice(R2 = 0.767). North-northwest surface winds have dominated the freezing period of sea water in the JZB, and wind speed has exerted a more significant influence on the formation of sea ice when the sea ice coverage has been generally small. Additionally, artificial factors began to affect the expansion of sea ice in JZB since 2007. The construction of the Jiao-Zhou-Bay Bridge(JZBB) is believed to have retarded water flow and reduced the tidal prism, thereby leading to the formation of an ice bridge along the JZBB, which effectively prevents the southward expansion of sea ice.     

Modeling seasonal variations of ocean and sea ice circulation in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas： A model-data fusion study

A 3.8-kin Coupled Ice-Ocean Model （C1OM） was implemented to successfully reproduce many observed phenomena in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, including the Bering-inflow-originated coastal current that splits into three branches： Alaska Coastal Water （ACW） , Central Channel, and Herald Valley branches. Other modeled phenomena include the Beaufort Slope Current （BSC） , the Beaufort Gyre, the East Siberian Current （ ESC）, mesoscale eddies, seasonal landfast ice, sea ice ridging, shear, and deformation. Many of these downscaling processes can only be captured by using a high-resolution CIOM, nested in a global climate model. The seasonal cycles for sea ice concentration, thickness, velocity, and other variables are well reproduced with Solid validation by satellite measurements. The seasonal cycles for upper ocean dynamics and thermodynamics are also well reproduced, which include the formation of the cold saline layer due to the injection of salt during sea ice formation, the BSC, and the subsurface upwelling in winter that brings up warm, even more saline Atlantic Water along the shelfbreak and shelf along the Beaufort coast.     

Relationship between Antarctic sea ice and the climate in summer of China

The variations of sea ice are different in different regions in Antarctica, thus have different impacts on local atmospheric circulation and global climatic system. The relationships between the sea ice in Ross Sea and Weddell Sea regions and the synoptic climate in summer of China are investigated in this paper via diagnostic analysis methods by using global sea ice concentration gridded data covering Jan. 1968 through Dec. 2002 obtained from Hadley Center, combined with Geopotential Height on 500hPa and 100hPa over North Hemisphere and monthly precipitation and air temperatures data covering the corresponding period over 160 meteorological stations in China obtained from CMA （ China Meteorological Administration）. Results disclose that both these two regions are of indicative meanings to the climate in summer of China. The Ross Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the precipitation in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will result in less precipitation in Northeast China in the following June. Weddell Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the air temperature in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will contribute to lower air temperature in Northeast China in the following June.     

Impacts of sea level rise on coastal erosion in the Changjiang River delta and north Jiangsu coastal plain

At present, approximately 36% of coasts are experiencing net erosion in the Changjiang River delta and the north Jiangsu coastal plain. Future sea level rise will accelerate the process of coastal erosion. According to the ratio of the calculated value of coast retreat by Bruun rule to the estimated value by using measured data, the proportion affected by sea level rise in total coastal erosion has been estimated in this paper. When sea level rises by 20cm, the proportion determined by sea level rise will increase from 1.0% at present to 2.2% in the future in the coasts of abandoned Huanghe River delta and from 8.5%–9.6% to 13.5%–15.2% in the north and south banks of the Changjiang River delta. This result is lower than that from the similar research in the world, and this phenomenon is related with the special development process of the coasts in this area. The mechanism of accelerating coastal erosion by sea level rise is that sea level is will increase the intensity of tidal current, wave and storm surge and decrease the ability to reduce the force of waves on the tidal flat and coastal wetland due to the loss of their areas. Therefore, the length of erosion coasts will increase, the sedimentation rate of accretion coasts will decrease or even turn accretion into erosion, the width of tidal flat will reduce and coastal slope will increase. So the project of coastal protection of this area must be reinforced. Project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Sea Salt Sodium Record in a Shallow Ice Core from East Antarctica as a Potential Proxy of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in Southern Indian Ocean

Antarctic sea ice has experienced an increasing trend in recent decades, especially in the Ross Sea and Indian Ocean sectors. Sea ice variability affects greatly the maritime airmass transport from high latitude to Antarctic continent. Here we present a new ice core record of sea salt sodium(ssNa+) concentration at annual-resolution in the Princess Elizabeth Land spanning from 1990 to 2016, showing that this marker could be used as a potential proxy for reconstructing the sea ice extent(SIE) in the Southern Indian Ocean(SIO) given their significant correlation(R =-0.6, P 0.01) over the past 27 years. The correlation and composite analyses results show that the ssNa~+ at the 202 km inland from Zhongshan Station and the SIE changes in SIO are closely related to the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and Southern Annular Mode(SAM). The northward wind in central SIO occurs during positive IOD and the strengthened westerlies occurs during positive SAM, both of which favor increased sea ice in SIO and lead to the decreased ssNa~+ concentration at the coastal site.     

基于NSIDC海冰产品的FY北极海冰数据集优化

北极海冰对全球气候起着非常重要的调制作用,海冰范围是海冰监测的基本参数。近40年,北极地区持续变暖,北极海冰显著减少,进而引发北极自然环境恶化、北半球极端天气频发、全球海平面上升等一系列环境和气候问题。准确获取北极海冰范围及其演变趋势,确定海冰变化对全球气候系统的响应,是研究和预测全球气候变化趋势的关键之一。HasISST和OISST海冰数据集在海冰监测中应用最为广泛,可为北极地区长时间序列海冰变化研究提供基础数据,但这2套数据集空间分辨率相对较低,应用于北极关键区对中国气候响应研究方面存在很大的局限,为解决这一问题和弥补国内海冰监测微波遥感数据的空白,2011年6月27日,国家卫星气象中心（National Satellite Meteorological Center, NSMC）发布了FY（Fengyun, FY）北极海冰数据集,该数据集利用搭载在FY卫星上的微波成像仪（Microwave Radiation Imager, MWRI）数据,使用Enhance NASA Team算法制作,该算法利用前向辐射传输模型模拟北极地区4种海表类型（海水、新生冰、一年冰和多年冰）在不同大气条件下MWRI辐射亮温,进而得到每种大气条件下0~100%的海冰覆盖度查找表（海冰覆盖度每次增加1%）,通过观测值与模拟值的比对得到海冰覆盖度,由该数据集计算得到的北极海冰范围在大部分区域与实际情况相符。该产品虽已进行通道间匹配误差修正和定位精度偏差订正,但由于其搭载的微波成像仪（Microwave Radiation Imager, MWRI）天线长度有限,造成传感器探测到的地物回波信号相对较弱,难以区分海冰和近岸附近的陆地,影响了该数据集的精度和应用。为解决这一问题,本文基于美国冰雪中心（National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC）发布的海冰产品对FY海冰数据集进行优化,NSIDC产品利用判断矩阵对海岸线附近的像元进行识别,并对误差像元进行不同程度的修正,由NSIDC产品计算得到的北极海冰范围与实际情况更为符合。数据集优化大大提高了FY海冰数据集的精度,研究结果表明,优化后FY海冰数据集与NSIDC产品相关系数高达0.9997,且二者日、月、年平均最大海冰范围偏差仅为3.5%、1.9%、0.9%,且FY海冰数据集优化过程对其较好的空间分异特征无明显影响。该数据集可正确地反映北极海冰范围及其变化情况,且海岸线附近海冰的分布情况更准确,可为北极海冰变化研究提供可靠的基础数据。     

Analysis of multi-dimensional SAR for determining the thickness of thin sea ice in the Bohai Sea

Flat thin ice (<30 cm thick) is a common ice type in the Bohai Sea, China. Ice thickness detection is important to offshore exploration and marine transport in winter. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can be used to acquire sea ice data in all weather conditions, and it is a useful tool for monitoring sea ice conditions. In this paper, we combine a multi-layered sea ice electromagnetic (EM) scattering model with a sea ice thermodynamic model to assess the determination of the thickness of flat thin ice in the Bohai Sea using SAR at different frequencies, polarization, and incidence angles. Our modeling studies suggest that co-polarization backscattering coefficients and the co-polarized ratio can be used to retrieve the thickness of flat thin ice from C- and X-band SAR, while the co-polarized correlation coefficient can be used to retrieve flat thin ice thickness from L-, C-, and X-band SAR. Importantly, small or moderate incidence angles should be chosen to avoid the effect of speckle noise.     

Mechanical and numerical models for sea ice dynamics on small-meso scale

On small-meso scale, the sea ice dynamic characteristics are quite different from that on large scale. To model the sea ice dynamics on small-meso scale, a new elastic-viscous-plastic （EVP） constitutive model and a hybrid Lagrangian- Eulerian （HLE） numerical method are developed based on continuum theory. While a modified discrete element model （DEM） is introduced to model the ice cover at discrete state. With the EVP constitutive model, the numerical simulation for ice ridging in an idealized rectangular basin is carried out and the results are comparable with the analytical solution of jam theory. Adopting the HLE numerical model, the sea ice dynamic process is simulated in a vortex wind field. The furthering application of DEM is discussed in details for modeling the discrete distribution of sea ice. With this study, the mechanical and numerical models for sea ice dynamics can be improved with high precision and computational efficiency.     

Links between Arctic sea ice and extreme summer precipi- tation in China：an alternative view

Potential links between the Arctic sea-ice concentration anomalies and extreme precipitation in China are explored. Associations behind these links can be explained by physical interpretations aided by...     

Detection and monitoring of new-ice in the East Greenland Sea using the SeaWinds scatterometer

Space borne radar scatterometers are primarily designed to measure the wind vector over the world ocean; yet they also provide useful information on sea ice type and extent. In this paper, it is shown how the SeaWinds scatterometer can be used to detect new sea ice at the very beginning of its growth. Taking advantage of the very good coverage of the East Greenland Sea by SeaWinds on board the QuickSCAT satellite it has been possible to detect the early stage of formation of the sea ice peninsula, named the Odden, and to monitor its evolution during March 2001. The early sea ice detection has been validated by using RADARSAT Synthetic Aperture Radar scenes. It is also shown that microwave radiometers, such as the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), which are used as standard sensors for sea ice monitoring, do not detect the very early stage of sea ice growth and lag behind new sea ice occurrence by about twelve to twenty four hours.     

The progress in the study of Arctic pack ice ecology

The sea ice community plays an important role in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Because of the predicted environmental changes in the Arctic environment and specifically related to sea ice, the Arctic pack ice biota has received more attention in recent years using modem ice-breaking research vessels. Studies show that the Arctic pack ice contains a diverse biota and besides ice algae, the bacterial and protozoan biomasses can be high. Surprisingly high primary production values were observed in the pack ice of the central Arctic Ocean. Occasionally biomass maximum were discovered in the interior of the ice floes, a habitat that had been ignored in most Arctic studies. Many scientific questions, which deserve special attention, remained unsolved due to logistic limitations and the sea ice characteristics. Little is know about the pack ice community in the central Arctic Ocean. Almost no data exists from the pack ice zone for the winter season. Concerning the abundance of bacteria and protozoa, more studies are needed to understand the microbial network within the ice and its role in material and energy flows. The response of the sea ice biota to global change will impact the entire Arctic marine ecosystem and a long-term monitoring program is needed. The techniques, that are applied to study the sea ice biota and the sea ice ecology, should be improved.     

IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL EROSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NORTH JIANGSU COASTAL PLAINO

（季子修）（蒋自巽）ＩＭＰＡＣＴＳＯＦＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＣＯＡＳＴＡＬＥＲＯＳＩＯＮＩＮＴＨＥＣＨＡＮＧＪＩＡＮＧＲＩＶＥＲＤＥＬＴＡＡＮＤＮＯＲＴＨＪＩＡＮＧＳＵＣＯＡＳＴＡＬＰＬＡＩＮＯ￥ＪｉＺｉｘｉｕ（ＮａｎｊｉｎｇＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ...     

北极海冰范围时空变化及其与海温气温间的数值分析

本文利用美国国家冰雪中心提供的1989-2014年海冰范围资料,分析了北极海冰范围的年际变化和季节变化规律。分析发现,北极海冰范围呈减少趋势,每年减小\begin{array}{c}5.91\times {10}^4\mathit{k}{m}^2\end{array},夏季减少趋势显著,冬季减少趋势弱。北极海冰范围显现相对稳定的季节变化规律,海冰的结冰和融化主要发生在各个边缘海,夏季期间的海冰具有融化快、冻结快的特征。结合海温、气温数据,进行北极海冰范围与海温、气温间的数值分析,结果表明北极海冰范围变化通过影响北极海温变化进而影响北极气温变化。海冰范围的季节变化滞后于海温和气温的季节变化。基于北极考察走航海温气温数据,进行楚科奇海海冰范围线与海温气温间的数值分析,发现楚科奇海海冰范围线所在区域的海温、气温与纬度高低、离陆地远近有关。     

基于CryoSat-2数据反演2011～2017年波弗特海海冰厚度变化

利用CryoSat-2卫星测高数据反演波弗特海的海冰厚度,并利用2010~2013年10月份仰视声呐(ULS)和2011年冰桥计划（IceBridge）数据对结果进行精度评估。结果表明,测高反演的海冰吃水深度与ULS吃水深度差值的最大值和标准差分别为14 cm和4 cm;测高反演的海冰厚度与冰桥计划海冰厚度差值的平均值和标准差分别为2.7 cm和65.7 cm,优于Laxon(2013)研究结果（分别优化2.1 cm和6.6 cm）。在此基础上,研究2011~2017年波弗特海夏冬两季的海冰厚度变化,发现二者具有类似的分布特征,且冬季3月海冰覆盖范围更广,厚度更大;进一步分析2011~2017年3月份冬季海冰厚度年际变化,发现其呈整体下降趋势,且2012年最小,2014年最大。     

Status of the Recent Declining of Arctic Sea Ice Studies

In the past 30 years, a large-scale change occurred in the Arctic climatic system, which had never been observed before 1980s. At the same time, the Arctic sea ice experienced a special evolution with more and more rapidly dramatic declining. In this circumstance, the Arctic sea ice became a new focus of the Arctic research. The recent advancements about abrupt change of the Arctic sea ice are reviewed in this paper .The previous analyses have demonstrated the accelerated declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent in the past 30 years, based on in-situ and satellite-based observations of atmosphere, as well as the results of global and regional climate simulations. Especially in summer, the rate of decrease for the ice extents was above 10% per decade. In present paper, the evolution characteristics of the arctic sea ice and its possible cause are discussed in three aspects, i.e. the sea ice physical properties, the interaction process of sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and its response and feedback mechanism to global and arctic climate system.     

Wind energy input in coastal seas east of China

This study investigates the wind energy input, an important source of mechanical energy, in the coastal seas east of China. Using the wind field from the high-resolution sea surface meteorology dataset in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea, we studied the wind energy input through surface ageostrophic currents and surface waves. Using a simple analytical formula for the Ekman Spiral with timedependent wind, the wind energy input through ageostrophic currents was estimated at ～22 GW averaged from 1960 to 2007, and through use of an empirical formula, the wind energy input through surface waves was estimated at ～169 GW. We also examined the seasonal variation and long-term tendency of mechanical energy from wind stress, and found that the wind energy input to the East China Sea decreased before the 1980s, and then subsequently increased, which is contrary to what has been found for the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. More complicated physical processes and varying diffusivity need to be taken into account in future studies.     

Role of sea ice in air-sea exchange and its relation to sea fog

Synchronous or quasi-synchronous stereoscopic sea-ice-air comprehensive observation was conducted during the First China Arctic Expedition in summer of 1999. Based on these data, the role of sea ice in sea-air exchange was studied. The study shows that the kinds, distribution and thickness of sea ice and their variation significantly influence the air-sea heat exchange. In floating ice area, the heat momentum transferred from ocean to atmosphere is in form of latent heat; latent heat flux is closely related to floating ice concentration; if floating ice is less, the heat flux would be larger. Latent heat flux is about 21 23.6 W*m-2, which is greater than sensible heat flux. On ice field or giant floating ice, heat momentum transferred from atmosphere to sea ice or snow surface is in form of sensible heat. In the floating ice area or polynya, sea-air exchange is the most active, and also the most sensible for climate. Also this area is the most important condition for the creation of Arctic vapor fog. The heat exchange of a large-scale vapor fog process of about 500000 km2 on Aug. 21 22,1999 was calculated; the heat momentum transferred from ocean to air was about 14.8×109 kW. There are various kinds of sea fog, radiation fog, vapor fog and advection fog, forming in the Arctic Ocean in summer. One important cause is the existence of sea ice and its resultant complexity of both underlying surface and sea-air exchange.     

Abundance, biomass and composition of spring ice algal and phytoplankton communities of the Laptev Sea （Arctic）

Abundance,biomass and composition of the ice algal and phytoplank-ton communities were investigated in the southeastern Laptev Sea in spring 1999.Diatoms dominated the algal communities and pennate diatoms dominated the dia-tom population.12 dominant algal species occurred within sea ice and underlyingwater column,including Fragilariopsis oceanica,F.cylindrus,Nitzschiafrigida,N.promare,Achnanthes taeniata,Nitzschia neofrigida,Naviculapelagica,N.vanhoef fenii,N.septentrionalis,Melosira arctica,Clindrothecaclosterium and Pyrarnimonas sp.The algal abundance of bottom 10 cm sea icevaried between 14.6 and 1562.2×10~4 ceils l~(-1)with an average of 639.0×10~4cells l~(-1),and the algal biomass ranged from 7.89 to 2093.5μg C l~(-1)with an av-erage of 886.9μg C l~(-1),which were generally one order of magnitude higherthan those of sub-bottom ice and two orders of magnitude higher than those ofunderlying surface water.The integrated algal abundance and biomass of lower-most 20 cm ice column were averagely 7.7 and 12.2 times as those of upper 20 mwater column,respectively,suggesting that the ice algae might play an importantrole in maintaining the coastal marine ecosystem before the thawing of sea ice.Icealgae influenced the phytoplankton community of the underlying water column.However,the“seeding”of ice algae for phytoplankton bloom was negligible be-cause of the iow phytoplankton biomass within the underlying water column.