StudyofCurieisothermalsurfaceinSichuanBasinandtheseismicareaonitswesternmar┐gin

ＳｔｕｄｙｏｆＣｕｒｉｅｉｓｏｔｈｅｒｍａｌｓｕｒｆａｃｅｉｎＳｉｃｈｕａｎＢａｓｉｎａｎｄｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｉｃａｒｅａｏｎｉｔｓｗｅｓｔｅｒｎｍａｒ┐ｇｉｎＸＩＡＮＺＨＡＮＧ（张先），ＸＩ－ＦＥＮＧＨＵ（虎喜凤），ＪＩＮＧ－ＸＩＵＳＨＥＮ（沈京秀...     

Research on inversion of average stress field by genetic algorithms

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｉｎｖｅｒｓｉｏｎｏｆａｖｅｒａｇｅｓｔｒｅｓｆｉｅｌｄｂｙｇｅｎｅｔｉｃａｌｇｏｒｉｔｈｍｓＸＩＮＧ－ＸＩＮＤＵ（杜兴信）ＨＵＩ－ＬＩＮＧＺＨＡＮＧ（张惠玲）ＸＩＵ－ＬＩＮＧＬＵ（鲁秀玲）ＣＨＵＮ－ＳＨＥＮＧＺＨＡＮＧ（张春生...     

The research on Hainan earthquake insurance system

ＴｈｅｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎＨａｉｎａｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｉｎｓｕｒａｎｃｅｓｙｓｔｅｍＦＡＮ－ＬＵＡＮＳＨＥＮ１）（沈繁銮），ＺＨＩ－ＸＩＯＮＧＬＩ１）（李志雄），ＤＩＮＧＣＨＥＮ１）（陈定），ＨＡＩ－ＨＵＡＬＩ１）（李海华），ＤＩＮＧ－ＪＩＥＷ...     

Upper mantle flow beneath the Northwest of China and its lithospheric dynamics

ＵｐｐｅｒｍａｎｔｌｅｆｌｏｗｂｅｎｅａｔｈｔｈｅＮｏｒｔｈｗｅｓｔｏｆＣｈｉｎａａｎｄｉｔｓｌｉｔｈｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃｄｙｎａｍｉｃｓＪＩＡＮ－ＨＵＡＨＵＡＮＧＩ（黄建华）；ＸＩＡ－ＨＵＡＣＨＡＮＧＩ（常筱华）ａｎｄＲＯＮＧ－ＳＨＡＮＦＵＩ傅容珊）（...     

The application of resistivity tomography to hydrogeological exploration

ＴｈｅａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆｒｅｓｉｓｔｉｖｉｔｙｔｏｍｏｇｒａｐｈｙｔｏｈｙｄｒｏｇｅｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｅｘｐｌｏｒａｔｉｏｎＲＵＩＦＥＮＧ１）（冯锐）ＸＩＡＯ－ＱＩＮＬＩ２）（李晓芹）ＹＵ－ＬＵＴＡＯ２）（陶裕录）ＣＩ－ＣＨＡＮＧＳＵＮ２）（...     

IsatypeoflowfrequencyULFmagneticdistur┐banceakindofearthquakeprecursors

ＩｓａｔｙｐｅｏｆｌｏｗｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｃｙＵＬＦｍａｇｎｅｔｉｃｄｉｓｔｕｒ┐ｂａｎｃｅａｋｉｎｄｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｃｕｒｓｏｒｓ？ＸＩＮＧ－ＣＡＩＬＩ（李兴才），ＨＵＩ－ＸＩＮＣＡＯ（曹惠馨），ＫＥ－ＸＩＮＲＥＮ（任克新）ａｎｄＣＨＵ...     

Researchonpredictionofthefolowingnotice┐ableshocksofearthquakesequences

Ｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｆｏｌｏｗｉｎｇｎｏｔｉｃｅ┐ａｂｌｅｓｈｏｃｋｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓＰＵ－ＸＩＯＮＧＬＩＵ（刘蒲雄），ＸＩＵ－ＱＩＣＨＥＮ（陈修启），ＸＩＡＯ－ＪＩＡＮＬＵ（吕晓健）ａｎｄＤ...     

The mechanism of regional gravity changes before and after the Tangshan earthquake

ＴｈｅｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｏｆｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｇｒａｖｉｔｙｃｈａｎｇｅｓｂｅｆｏｒｅａｎｄａｆｔｅｒｔｈｅＴａｎｇｓｈａｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＲＵＩ－ＨＡＯＬＩ（李瑞浩）ＪＩＡＮ－ＬＩＡＮＧＨＵＡＮＧ（黄建梁）ＨＵＩＬＩ（李辉）ＤＯＮＧ－ＳＨＥＮＧ...     

Load tide heating mechanism of oceanic hotspots

ＬｏａｄｔｉｄｅｈｅａｔｉｎｇｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｏｆｏｃｅａｎｉｃｈｏｔｓｐｏｔｓＳＨＵＮ－ＬＩＡＮＧＣＨＩ１）（池顺良），ＱＩＮ－ＷＥＮＸＩ２）（郗钦文），ＭＩＮＧ－ＪＩＮＬＵＯ３）（骆鸣津）ａｎｄＬＩＡＮＧＣＨＩ１）（池亮）１）Ｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｇ...     

Study on the characteristics of crust－mantle transition zone in Western Yunnan Province

Ｓｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｃｒｕｓｔ┐ｍａｎｔｌｅｔｒａｎｓｉｔｉｏｎｚｏｎｅｉｎＷｅｓｔｅｒｎＹｕｎｎａｎＰｒｏｖｉｎｃｅＨＯＮＧ－ＸＩＡＮＧＨＵ（胡鸿翔）ＺＨＯＮＧ－ＹＡＮＧＬＩＮ（林中洋）ＹＩＮ－ＪＵＢＩＡＮ（边银...     

青藏高原东北缘地震活动性广义帕累托模型的全域敏感性分析

基于广义帕累托分布构建地震活动性模型,因其输入参数取值难以避免不确定性,导致依据该模型所得的地震危险性估计结果具有不确定性。鉴于此,本文选取青藏高原东北缘为研究区,提出了基于全域敏感性分析的地震危险性估计的不确定性分析流程和方法。首先,利用地震活动性广义帕累托模型,进行研究区地震危险性估计;然后,选取地震记录的起始时间和震级阈值作为地震活动性模型的输入参数,采用具有全域敏感性分析功能的E-FAST方法,对上述两个参数的不确定性以及两参数之间的相互作用对地震危险性估计不确定性的影响进行定量分析。结果表明:地震危险性估计结果（不同重现期的震级重现水平、震级上限及相应的置信区间）对两个输入参数中的震级阈值更为敏感;不同重现期的地震危险性估计结果对震级阈值的敏感程度不同;对不同的重现期而言,在影响地震危险性估计结果的不确定性上,两个输入参数之间存在非线性效应,且非线性效应程度不同。本文提出的不确定性分析流程和方法,可以推广应用于基于其它类型地震活动性模型的地震危险性估计不确定性分析。      

测井数据岩石物理参数敏感性的应用研究

利用测井资料所获得的基本参数进行岩石物理参数敏感性分析,可以较大提高含烃岩石的识别能力。本文讨论了对地震属性敏感性高的参数的选择及其使用方法,以便提高流体和岩性的识别能力。为了更好的与地震数据解释相结合,我们在敏感性参数空间构造了研究区的岩石物理模板,用以指导实际地震数据定量解释。     

地震动参数在建筑物抗震设计中的应用

传统考虑后期使用年限的地震动参数研究,在建筑物抗震设计中的应用,缺乏地震危险性分析和建筑物损伤指数分析,应用性差。提出新的地震动参数在建筑物抗震设计中的应用方法,以地震危险性分析为基础,通过水平地震动加速度衰减关系方程,求得建筑场地水平向基岩峰值加速度和反应谱,以此得到地震动加速度反应谱方程,利用该方程获得地震动反应谱参数,采用变形和线性组合构建损伤指数模型,获取地震波作用下地震动参数对建筑物损伤程度。实验结果表明,利用所提方法得到的地震动反应谱最小误差为0.563,小于允许误差4.0;在50年超越概率63%的条件下地震动参数值分别为0.26、0.095,所提方法可在规定误差范围内得到地震动反应谱参数值,其进行建筑物抗震设计精度和应用性高。     

A New Methodology for Decreasing Uncertainties in the Seismic Hazard Assessment Results by Using Sensitivity Analysis. An Application to Sites in Eastern Spain

v--vIn this study a sensitivity analysis has been carried out by means of the seismic hazard results obtained using the non-zoning methodology (Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the extreme value distribution functions proposed by Gumbel (1958), via a logic tree procedure. The aim of the sensitivity analysis is to identify the input parameters that have the largest impact on assessed hazard and its uncertainty. The research findings from the study of these parameters can serve as a useful guide to facilitate further research studies on seismic hazard evaluations because it allows us to identify parameters that have little or no effect on the seismic hazard results as well as parameters that have great effects on them. In this way, using the obtained results, we have proposed objective criteria in assigning probabilities to the different logic tree branches in a more objective way. It should be noted that, although the sensitivity of the logic tree branches depends on the site, it does not always do so in the same way. Finally, re-evaluation of seismic hazard using the proposed methodology applied to eastern Spain leads to a reduction of uncertainty from 52% to 27% of the expected acceleration with 10% probability of exceedence, at the site with the highest value of seismic hazard (Site 1: Torrevieja).     

考虑地震构造背景的地震活动性参数光滑方法在地震危险性概率评价中的应用

本文选取华北地震区作为研究区域,尝试利用空间光滑活动模型进行地震危险性评估.首先对研究区域进行划分网格,依据地震构造和地震空间分布特征建立地震构造模型,确定构造区特征参数(b值、M0、Mu、断层方位角及M-L关系等).采用考虑了地震构造背景的椭圆光滑过程的地震活动参数模型,计算各网格点的地震发生率.并利用网格源的地震危险性概率评价方法,由不同输入地震目录通过综合加权得到该区域50年超越概率10％的加速度峰值区划结果.该方法充分体现了地震活动的空间非均一性,尤其适用于发震构造不甚清晰的中强地震可能造成的地震危险性,避免了常规潜在震源区的划分.且评价方法简单快捷,为地震区划以及重大工程地震安全性评价工作提供了新的技术方法.     

历史资料短缺地区估计地震活动性参数方法初探

在地震危险性分析中，历史地震资料是确定地震活动性参数的关键。鉴于我国西部地震资料记载年限短，地震活动水平高的情况，本文提出一种对中国西部地区如何使用有限资料，确定未来地震活动水平和合理估计地震活动性参数的方法。该方法是引入相对应变这一物理量，通过分析各地震带中强以上地震在时间上的相对应变释放速率，达到尽可能合理估计地震活动性参数的目的。     

Convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis of low seismicity area

Historical seismic data and seismogenic information are quite scarce for the low seismicity region, and modeling the parameters uncertainties based on probabilistic model is suspicious. The convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis approach is proposed. The uncertainties of b value, the annual occurrence rate v and the upper bound magnitude M_u are described by the envelop bound convex model and the ellipsoidal bound convex model. Convex analysis method and China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology are combined to perform a bound seismic hazard analysis for Ningbo city, China. The seismic intensity interval obtained using the bound seismic hazard analysis is compared with that calculated using China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the interval of seismic intensity is most sensitive to the annual occurrence rate v. Furthermore, the different convex models have little effect on the interval of seismic intensity.     

中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较

Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented,that is,the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then,we take central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.     

地震动强度参数相关性对地震滑坡危险性影响分析

本文基于全概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法,利用蒙特卡罗模拟研究在不同临界屈服加速度a_c、永久位移模型、场地类别和断层距情况下,地震动强度参数相关性对地震滑坡危险性结果的影响规律。主要结果表明:在进行滑坡危险性分析时,不考虑多地震动强度参数相关性会造成预测位移值偏小,滑坡风险被低估。因此,考虑地震动强度参数相关性对滑坡危险性评价很有必要,这能使预测结果反映地震动参数样本作为输入时的实际相关性特征,为合理进行滑坡防护提供理论依据和参考。     

Seismic hazard analysis for engineering sites based on the stochastic finite-fault method

Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.