1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件的重建*

气候变暖背景下,极端寒冷事件仍有发生且常伴随严重的经济、社会影响,需要更为深入的研究。1929—1930年极端冷冬事件作为增暖背景下的极端冷事件,对其研究相对缺乏。通过收集并分析民国时期的气象器测资料和报刊资料,对1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件进行探讨。结果表明: (1)本次冷冬的空间范围包括华北地区、长江流域(重庆至入海口段)和北疆地区,西北地区可能存在冷冬;寒冷的核心时段为1929年12月到次年1月。(2)本次冷冬时空范围内的地区月平均气温极端性强,华北、长江流域的12月份均温都超过十年一遇的冷事件水平,长江流域、北疆地区的1月份均温均超过五十年一遇水平;但月最低气温的极端性较弱,大部分站点月的最低温达到五年一遇水平,部分站点月超过十年一遇水平。(3)本次冷冬至少经历了7次区域性或全国性的降温事件,其中有3次降温事件达到全国性寒潮事件标准,时段分别为12月1—5日、12月16—20日和1月1—5日;其中第1次和第3次是影响中国的典型中路寒潮路径,第2次降温过程的时空特征不显著。(4)综合本次冷冬前旱后涝气候特点、该时段内ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)指数的变化以及前人对ENSO和中国气候变异的关系研究,推测1920s末到1930s初期的气象灾害很大程度受影响于ENSO事件。     

Raised coastal landforms as products of modern process variations, and their relevance in eustatic sea-level studies: examples from eastern Ireland

Products of marine processes occupy a considerable vertical range, which varies along the shore. Extreme waves can both cause erosion and form depositional structures up to several metres above the high tide mark. Temporary supra-elevation of water level by surge or wave set-up shifts effects upward. The preservation potential of products of extreme storms is relatively high, when compared to those associated with more frequent events. The level to which coastal landforms develop depends upon the conditions under which they form; thus sand beach ridges which are related to fairweathcr periods have a restricted height range when compared to gravel beach ridges building up under extreme storms. The varied coastal scenery of eastern Ireland provides many examples of storm-related products (barriers. cliffs, platforms, etc.). They have been related to a latc-Holocene eustatic sea level or even a partly isostatically controlled raised late-Holoccne sea level, but both elevations and apparent tilts can be explained by longshore variations in waves, tides and surges. Such an explanation is more consistent with other studies of latc-Holocene coastal evolution around the Irish Sea basin.     

Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)

Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model were for the first time used under the pseudo-climate simulation approach, to study the parameters of an extreme storm in the Baltic Sea area. We reconstructed the met-ocean conditions during the historical storm Gudrun (which caused a record-high +275 cm surge in Pärnu Bay on 9 January 2005) and simulated the future equivalent of Gudrun by modifying the background conditions using monthly mean value differences in sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric air temperature and relative humidity from MIROC5 in accordance with the IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The simulated storm route and storm surge parameters were in good accordance with the observed ones. Despite expecting the continuation of recently observed intensification of cyclonic activity in winter months, our numerical simulations showed that intensity of the strongest storms and storm surges in the Baltic Sea might not increase by the end of twenty-first century. Unlike tropical cyclones, which derive their energy from the increasing SST, the extratropical cyclones (ETCs) harvest their primary energy from the thermal differences on the sides of the polar front, which may decrease if the Arctic warms up. For climatological generalizations on future ETCs, however, it is necessary to re-calculate a larger number of storms, including those with different tracks and in different thermal conditions.     

Storm waves in the Canadian Atlantic: A numerical simulation

The Grand Banks and the Scotian Shelf regions of the Canadian Atlantic often experience strong winds and high waves associated with the passage of intense storms during the winter months of December to March. These storm waves are identified as a major hazard to shipping, offshore exploration and other marine activities in eastern Canada.In this study, an operational spectral ocean wave model has been used to simulate sea-states associated with selected storm events in the Canadian Atlantic. The wave model operates on a grid (with grid spacing of about 111 km) which covers a major portion of the north Atlantic. A nested fine grid (with grid spacing of about 37 km) has been designed which covers the shelf regions of the Canadian Atlantic. The model employs deep-water physics over the coarse grid while over the fine grid shallow-water processes as represented by wave refraction, wave shoaling, bottom friction and wave number scaling are included. The wave model also includes, as an optional package, the third-generation source terms as represented by the nonlinear wave-wave interaction terms.For two selected storm events, the model generated sea-states are evaluated against available buoy data as well as against hand analyzed operational wave height charts over the northwest Atlantic. The evaluation shows that the various versions of the model can simulate the observed sea-states, reasonably well. The utility of the wave model in providing numerical guidance for offshore activities is briefly discussed.     

Tsunamis on the Russian Pacific coast: history and current situation

The Pacific coast, including the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kuriles, the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Bering Sea, is the main tsunami-prone area in Russia. The Far East tsunamis are much more frequent, extensive, and devastating than those in the Black, Caspian, Baltic, and White Sea coasts, as well as in major inland lakes of Baikal, Ladoga, etc. The tsunami catalog of the Russian Far East from 1737 to present lists 110 events with mainly near-field and few far-field sources (105 and 5 events, respectively). Most of the catalogued tsunamis (95 cases) were induced by earthquakes, and few events had volcanic (3), landsliding (2), meteorological (3), and unknown (2) triggers. Altogether there were eleven devastating tsunamis for the period of observations, with > 10 m heights, two of which were great events in 1737 and 1952, when the waves exceeded 20 m. The wave heights were in the range 2.5-10 m in fifteen hazardous tsunami events and within the tidal range (~ 1-2 m) in thirteen cases; the other events were small and detectable only instrumentally. Thus, the average recurrence times for tsunamis of different magnitudes in the Russian Pacific coast are 25 years for devastating events and 10-15 years for hazardous tsunamis; small tsunamis occur almost every year, according to statistics for the last sixty years collected at the regional network of tide stations. The topics discussed in the paper concern the completeness and reliability of the Far East catalog; distribution of tsunami events in space and time; correlation between the intensity of tsunami and the magnitude of the causative undersea earthquake; tsunami recurrence; tsunami warning; and long-term hazard assessment and mapping.     

Validating quantitative precipitation forecast for the Flood Meteorological Office,Patna region during 2011–2014

In order to issue an accurate warning for flood, a better or appropriate quantitative forecasting of precipitation is required. In view of this, the present study intends to validate the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) issued during southwest monsoon season for six river catchments (basin) under the flood meteorological office, Patna region. The forecast is analysed statistically by computing various skill scores of six different precipitation ranges during the years 2011–2014. The analysis of QPF validation indicates that the multi-model ensemble (MME) based forecasting is more reliable in the precipitation ranges of 1–10 and 11–25 mm. However, the reliability decreases for higher ranges of rainfall and also for the lowest range, i.e., below 1 mm. In order to testify synoptic analogue method based MME forecasting for QPF during an extreme weather event, a case study of tropical cyclone Phailin is performed. It is realized that in case of extreme events like cyclonic storms, the MME forecasting is qualitatively useful for issue of warning for the occurrence of floods, though it may not be reliable for the QPF. However, QPF may be improved using satellite and radar products.     

A comparative study on uncooperative search models in survivor search and rescue

The storm impact scale of Sallenger (J Coast Res 890–895, 2000) was tested on a partially engineered beach. This scale is supposed to provide a convenient tool for coastal managers to categorize the storm impact at the shore. It is based on the relation between the elevation of storm wave runup and the elevation of a critical geomorphic or man-made structures in the present study. Two different approaches were tested to estimate the elevation of extreme storm wave runup: (1) a parametric model based on offshore wave conditions and local beach slope and (2) the XBeach process-based model that solves implicitly the runup. The study shows comparisons between impact regimes computed with the two methods and those derived from video observations acquired during 2 weeks while the site was battered by three consecutive storms. Storms scenario including wave conditions with higher return periods and different tidal range were also investigated. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods used to compute extreme water level are then compared, and guidelines for the development of early warning system are drawn.     

Diagnosis of historical inundation events in the Marshall Islands to assist early warning systems

Inhabitants of low-lying coral atolls benefit from disaster risk reduction decision makers receiving early warnings of coastal inundation leading to heightened levels of alert and preparedness. Majuro, the capital of the Marshall Islands, is a coral atoll that experiences coastal inundation events on a near annual frequency and is likely to be exacerbated by sea-level rise, increasing the importance of early warning systems. However, current early warnings are not always provided for every inundation event. Inundation is driven by a combination of various oceanographic processes that contribute to sea level at the coastline, with the primary driver dependent on how extreme a particular process may be at the time. Incoming swell from distant storms and cyclones can trigger an inundation event, especially when coinciding with high spring tides and/or sea-level anomalies. Historical data from three directional scenarios were analysed to determine the critical values for offshore wave height, peak period, directional range, and sea level that had led to inundation in the past. Bulk wave statistics and static sea level were found to be sufficient information to identify the occurrence of an inundation event. These inundation thresholds serve as a reference to be used in conjunction with forecast models as an analogue for future events informing both the likelihood and impact. The analysis showed that inundation with a significant contributing swell factor propagates via three main routes, with approximately 50% occurring from the north-east. The two highest sea-level measurements on record both occurred during La Niña events, with both leading to inundation, suggesting that spring tides during La Niña events should exhibit a heightened level of alert for inundation at Majuro regardless of swell contribution.

     

The geology of the southeastern Baltic Sea: a review

The Baltic Sea, particularly its southeastern part, is discussed in the paper. Investigations of regional character as well as specialized studies in the area are reviewed. General historical works are mentioned briefly. Previous surveys since the 1950s are presented by the subject studied. The compilation of geological structure of the SE Baltic Sea bottom and adjacent land of Balticum (Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) is based on considerable amounts of summarized materials. The crystalline basement, sedimentary cover and Quaternary deposits are characterized in the comprehensive survey of geological structure. From a stratigraphical point of view, geological sequence of the platformal cover is comparatively complete: deposits of all geological systems (from the Archean to Cenozoic) are present in the Baltic Syneclise. Considering geotectonical cycles, the sedimentary cover of the syneclise is subdivided into four structural complexes. The thickness and distribution of Quaternary deposits are closely related to the recent bottom relief of the Baltic Sea that in turn is inherited from the Pre-Quaternary surface. Buried palaeo-valleys are characteristic of the Pre-Quaternary surface in the Baltic region and the Baltic Sea bottom. The Quaternary is characterized by layers of various geneses and by sharp changes of their thicknesses.     

Extreme cold winter events in southern China during AD 1650–2000

Zheng, J., Ding, L., Hao, Z. & Ge, Q. 2012 (January): Extreme cold winter events in southern China during AD 1650–2000. Boreas, Vol. 41, pp. 1–12. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2011.00225.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. We defined extreme cold winter events as those with occurrence probabilities lower than the 10th percentile of the probability density function, based on observed winter temperatures in southern China since 1951. Subsequently, we constructed impact severity levels using documentary evidence for those events during 1951–2000, considering three indexes for the freezing of rivers/lakes, widespread snow/ice storms, and cold damage to subtropical/tropical crops. Using these criteria we identified 50 extreme cold winters for the period AD 1650–1949 based on ～4000 pieces of comparable information extracted from local gazettes in southern China, after verification using data from three weather stations with long records. It was found that the frequencies of the extreme cold winter events since 1650 varied over time. The most frequent occurrences were found during AD 1650–1699 and in the first and second halves of the 19th century, with frequencies twice as high as in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, the frequencies of extreme winters during the 18th century were close to that in the second half of the 20th century. High frequencies of extreme cold winters in AD 1650–1720 and AD 1795–1835 occurred during the sunspot Maunder and Dalton Minima. The intensities of some historical cold events, such as those during 1653–1654, 1670, 1690, 1861, 1892 and 1929, exceeded those of the coldest winter events since 1951.     

Early Holocene history of the Baltic Sea, as reflected in coastal sediments in Blekinge, southeastern Sweden

Integrated palaeoecological studies of two fiord sediment sequences in the province of Blekinge, SE Sweden, covering the time span 11,000–5000 cal BP, reveal the timing and the environment for the Ancylus Lake/Littorina Sea transition 9800–8500 cal BP. The first ingression of saline water into the Baltic Sea through the Danish Straits occurred earlier than formerly assumed. New evidence, particularly mineral magnetic and palaeobotanical analyses, demonstrate that on the general trend of the eustatically caused Littorina transgression several minor fluctuations of the water level can be identified between 8500 and 5000 cal years BP. A distinct regression phase around 8100 cal BP is correlated with the Greenland ice-core cold event dated to 8200 ice-core years BP. This is described as a regional climatic catastrophe for the Baltic Sea region. The coastal stratigraphy is compared with the offshore stratigraphy earlier studied. A tentative shore displacement curve for Early and Middle Holocene is presented.     

Three-Dimensional Simulation of Water Circulation in the Java Sea: Influence of Wind Waves on Surface and Bottom Stresses

A one-year simulation of tide- andwind-driven circulation in the Java Sea, which is one ofthe Indonesian seas located in a tropical area, hasbeen carried out using a three-dimensionalhydrodynamic model incorporating the influence of thewind waves generated at the sea surface. This area isinfluenced by the monsoon climate (east- andwest-monsoon). Six hourly-wind fields at 10 m abovethe sea surface were used as a representative windfield. In other respects, the effect of waves on thethree-dimensional hydrodynamic model has beenrepresented by the surface and bottom stresses. Athird-generation wave model called WAM (WAMDI, 1988)was used to calculate the wave parameters and thewave dependence of the drag coefficient. Thetrajectory of water particles induced by thecalculated velocity fields in the Java Sea was then simulated.In dealing with hazardous phenomena, this modelwill be extended to predict suspended sediment fluxes,particularly those relating to catastrophic changes in seabottom topography and beach erosion. It is also animportant tool for the prediction of storm surge events.     

黑海西北部多瑙河峡谷北侧陆坡沉积特征及其与古气候的关系

【研究目的】在末次冰期，全球气候变化以千年尺度的快速、大幅度温度波动旋回为特征，这种波动变化在两极冰芯、深海沉积、中国黄土和洞穴石笋等诸多地质样品中均有记录。黑海位于北大西洋与东亚季风区过渡带，具有极有代表性的沉积记录。本文旨在通过对黑海沉积序列的研究，建立起其区域环境变化与北大西洋及东亚季风气候域气候变化的联系。【研究方法】研究对取自黑海西北部罗马尼亚陆坡区多瑙河峡谷北侧GAS-CS12钻孔的长22.0 m的岩芯样品，进行了粒度、矿物成分、主量元素、有机碳、总氮及碳氮同位素等分析。【研究结果】揭示出该段岩芯沉积于末次冰期中后期“Neoeuxine”湖相阶段，可划分为5个沉积单元，对应于北大西洋H4、H3、H1气候变化事件、末次冰盛期（LGM）及Bolling-Allerod气候变暖事件。【结论】建立起了其沉积序列及区域环境变化与北大西洋及东亚季风气候域气候变化的联系，印证了末次冰期千年尺度的气候变化事件在北大西洋、东亚季风区及两者过渡带上具有高度的一致性。创新点：建立了黑海西北沉积序列与区域环境变化的关系；补充了北大西洋与东亚季风区两者过渡带上气候波动事件的可靠时标。     

Past occurrences of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and the role of climate variability,environmental change and human impact

The hypoxic zone in the Baltic Sea has increased in area about four times since 1960 and widespread oxygen deficiency has severely reduced macro benthic communities below the halocline in the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland, which in turn has affected food chain dynamics, fish habitats and fisheries in the entire Baltic Sea. The cause of increased hypoxia is believed to be enhanced eutrophication through increased anthropogenic input of nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus. However, the spatial variability of hypoxia on long time-scales is poorly known: and so are the driving mechanisms. We review the occurrence of hypoxia in modern time (last c. 50 years), modern historical time (AD 1950–1800) and during the more distant past (the last c. 10 000 years) and explore the role of climate variability, environmental change and human impact. We present a compilation of proxy records of hypoxia (laminated sediments) based on long sediment cores from the Baltic Sea. The cumulated results show that the deeper depressions of the Baltic Sea have experienced intermittent hypoxia during most of the Holocene and that regular laminations started to form c. 8500–7800 cal. yr BP ago, in association with the formation of a permanent halocline at the transition between the Early Littorina Sea and the Littorina Sea s. str. Laminated sediments were deposited during three main periods (i.e. between c. 8000–4000, 2000–800 cal. yr BP and subsequent to AD 1800) which overlap the Holocene Thermal Maximum (c. 9000–5000 cal. yr BP), the Medieval Warm Period (c. AD 750–1200) and the modern historical period (AD 1800 to present) and coincide with intervals of high surface salinity (at least during the Littorina s. str.) and high total organic carbon content. This study implies that there may be a correlation between climate variability in the past and the state of the marine environment, where milder and dryer periods with less freshwater run-off correspond to increased salinities and higher accumulation of organic carbon resulting in amplified hypoxia and enlarged distribution of laminated sediments. We suggest that hydrology changes in the drainage area on long time-scales have, as well as the inflow of saltier North Sea waters, controlled the deep oxic conditions in the Baltic Sea and that such changes have followed the general Holocene climate development in Northwest Europe. Increased hypoxia during the Medieval Warm Period also correlates with large-scale changes in land use that occurred in much of the Baltic Sea watershed during the early-medieval expansion. We suggest that hypoxia during this period in the Baltic Sea was not only caused by climate, but increased human impact was most likely an additional trigger. Large areas of the Baltic Sea have experienced intermittent hypoxic from at least AD 1900 with laminated sediments present in the Gotland Basin in the Baltic Proper since then and up to present time. This period coincides with the industrial revolution in Northwestern Europe which started around AD 1850, when population grew, cutting of drainage ditches intensified, and agricultural and forest industry expanded extensively.     

北黄海盆地构造变形及动力学演化过程

以北黄海盆地构造几何学、运动学特征为基础,探讨了北黄海盆地的构造变形样式及动力学演化过程。研究表明,北黄海盆地的构造变形包括伸展构造变形、挤压构造变形、扭动构造变形以及反转构造变形等,北黄海盆地发育的区域动力学背景即是以区域拉伸作用为主、且叠加有水平挤压作用以及相关的扭动作用,并由此导致了北黄海盆地是以一系列地堑、半地堑式坳陷组成的拉张断陷盆地;北黄海盆地的伸展、挤压与升降作用受控于板块相互作用引起的区域引张与挤压应力场并辅以深部软流圈的微弱上拱隆起作用,其动力学演化过程包括晚侏罗世—早白垩世伸展断陷、晚白垩世—古新世热隆、始新世—渐新世裂陷、渐新世末期—新近纪早期构造反转以及新近纪热沉降等5个阶段。     

Synoptic forcing of wave states in the southeast Chukchi Sea, Alaska, at an offshore location

A bottom-mounted Recording Doppler Current Profiler was placed at an offshore location (depth of 34 m) in the southeast Chukchi Sea, Alaska, from July through December 2007 (UTC) with the objective of linking observed wave activity—wind-sea and swells—to their synoptic drivers. A total of 47 intervals of elevated wave state were recorded: 29 exceeding 1 m significant wave height (SWH), 16 exceeding 2 m SWH, and 3 m exceeded on two occasions; during one of those, a SWH of 4 m was observed. Detailed analysis of the two large events, including comparison with high-resolution reanalysis wind data (North America Regional Reanalysis), showed wave direction from the east, varied about 15° to the north (counterclockwise) from the wind direction, and current flow in the opposite direction (from the west). This is thought to be the influence of a strong “wind-sea” presence. Regarding classic wave limitations, although the SE Chukchi Sea is a large embayment bordered by land to the east, fetch limitations from the northeast and southeast did not appear to be a constraint for the wind speeds indicated by reanalysis. These two events appeared to be driven by winds associated with cyclonic systems that moved into the eastern Bering Sea and stalled. Examination of smaller waves associated with these events suggested that waves of 1.5 m SWH or less are likely part of another regime and can either be swell or wind-sea, moving in from the open Chukchi Sea to the northwest or through the Bering Strait to the south.     

Toward a standard stratigraphical classification practice for the Baltic Sea sediments: the CUAL approach

The Late Pleistocene and Holocene glacial and postglacial sediments of the Baltic Sea basin are conventionally classified into units according to the so‐called Baltic Sea stages: Baltic Ice Lake, Yoldia Sea, Ancylus Lake and Litorina Sea. The Baltic Sea stages have been identified in offshore sediment cores by fundamentally different criteria, precluding detailed comparisons of the sediment units amongst different sea areas and studies. Here, long sediment cores and reflection seismic and pinger sub‐bottom profiles were studied from an offshore area in the Gulf of Finland, northern Baltic Sea. The strata are divided on the basis of sedimentological criteria into three allostratigraphical formations with subordinate allostratigraphical members and lithostratigraphical formations, following the combined allostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical (CUAL) approach. Sedimentological features are recommended as the primary stratigraphical classification criteria because they do not require the palaeoenvironmental inferences of salinity and water level that are inherent in the conventional classification practice. The presented stratigraphical division is proposed as a flexible template for future stratigraphical work on the Baltic Sea basin, whereby lower‐rank allounits and lithounits can be included and removed locally, while the alloformations will remain at the highest hierarchical level and guarantee regional correlatability. The stratigraphical division is compatible with international guidelines, facilitating communication to the wider scientific community and comparison with other similar basins.     

Computer model of wind, waves, and longshore currents during a coastal storm

A mathematical model has been developed to forecast or hindcast wind, waves, and longshore currents during the passage of a coastal storm. Storm intensity is a function of the barometric pressure gradient which is modeled by rotating an inverted normal curve around the center of an ellipse. The length and orientation of the major and minor axes of the ellipse control the size and shape of the storm. The path of the storm is determined by a sequence of storm positions for the hindcast mode, and by interpolated positions assuming constant speed and direction for the forecast mode. The site location, shoreline orientation, and nearshore bottom slope provide input data for the shore position. The geostrophic wind speed and direction at the shore site are computed from the latitude and barometric pressure gradient. The geostrophic wind is converted into surface wind speed and direction by applying corrections for frictional effects over land and sea. The surface wind speed and direction, effective fetch, and wind duration are used to compute wave period, breaker height, and breaker angle at the shore site. The longshore current velocity is computed as a function of wave period, breaker height and angle, and nearshore slope. The model was tested by comparing observed data for several coastal locations with predicted values for wind speed, wave period and height, and longshore current velocity. Forecasts were made for actual storms and for hypothetical circular and elliptical storms.     

Seasonal Dependence of the North Pacific and North Atlantic SST Predictability and Forecast Skill

In this paper, the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean were investigated by conducting three sets of perfect model forecast experiments using a global coupled general circulation model. The results show that the annual mean SSTA in the North Pacific is less predictable on decadal time scale, with the forecast skill notably weaker than that of the North Atlantic. By analyzing the predictability and forecast skill of seasonal mean SSTA, it is found that the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the winter mean (JFM) SSTA in the central and western North Pacific are significantly higher than those of other seasons, and the magnitude is comparable with that of the North Atlantic. The predictability and forecast skill of the North Atlantic SSTA also show seasonal variations. Further analysis indicates that the seasonal dependence of the SSTA decadal predictability and forecast skill in the North Pacific is due to the winter-to-winter reemergence mechanism of SSTA in the North Pacific, which results from the seasonal variation of the mixed layer depth of the North Pacific Ocean. While the seasonal dependence of the North Atlantic SSTA predictability and forecast skill might be related to seasonal variations of other processes, such as the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation. The results of this paper suggest that for decadal climate prediction, if the forecast skill of the seasonal mean is taken into account, we might obtain higher than annual mean forecast skill for some seasons.