大渡河猴子岩水库入库洪水过程预报-实时校正-概率预报集成

与传统确定性预报相比,洪水概率预报能够为防洪调度决策提供更为丰富的信息。以大渡河猴子岩水库以上流域为研究区,建立新安江次洪模型,并采用动态系统响应曲线进行实时洪水预报校正。在确定性预报校正基础上,建立基于水文不确定性处理器（HUP）的次洪概率预报模型,定量分析预报不确定性,实现入库洪水概率预报。结果表明：(1)利用猴子岩流域2009 2019年水文气象资料,建立的新安江次洪模型整体精度较高,率定期和验证期的洪量和洪峰相对误差均在±20%以内,平均确定性系数分别为0.69和0.72;经动态系统响应曲线校正后,洪峰和洪量误差均有降低,率定期和验证期的确定性系数分别提高0.13和0.09。(2)以2020年3场洪水未来48 h预报降雨为输入,新安江模型预报精度不高,且随着预见期增长而降低,但经动态系统响应曲线校正后,整体预报精度有所提高,洪量相对误差减小幅度超50%,确定性系数提高幅度超60%。(3)HUP次洪概率预报模型提供的分布函数中位数Q50的预报精度在一定程度上优于校正后的确定性预报;提供的90%置信区间覆盖率均在90%左右,离散度均在0.40以下,能以相对较窄的区间覆盖大部分实测值...     

Influences of retrogressive erosion of reservoir on sedimentation of its downstream river channel——A case study on Sanmenxia Reservoir and the Lower Yellow River

Retrogressive erosion, a widespread phenomenon of sediment transport in reservoirs, often impacts on both the reservoir capacity and the sedimentation in the downstream river channel. Based on field data from the Sanmenxia Reservoir and the Lower Yellow River over the past decades, three courses of ret-rogressive erosion with distinctive features were analyzed. The results indicate that retrogressive erosion, especially caused by rapid reduction in the water level till the reservoir is empty, often results in the serious siltation of the lower Yellow River and threatens the safety of the flood control in the Lower Yellow River. Unreasonable operation of the reservoir and incoming hyperconcentrated floods accom-panied by retrogressive erosion also aggravate the siltation of the main channel of the river. However, a reasonable operation mode of the reservoir so named"storing the clear (low sediment concentration) water in the non–flood season, and sluicing the muddy(high sediment concentration) water in the flood season" was found, which might mitigate the deposition in both the reservoir and the Lower Yellow River. This operation mode provides important experience for the design and operation of large reser-voirs in other large rivers carrying huge amounts of sediment.     

钱塘江双向声传播测流实验研究

2009年4月和5月在钱塘江杭州段进行了双向声传播测流实验.两个声信号发送与接收站设置在钱塘江两岸,间距为3050 m.在声传播实验期间,沿着声传播路径还进行了12次走航ADP(Acoustic Doppler Profiler)流速观测.根据双向声传播的顺逆流传播时间差计算得到沿声传播路径的平均流速,与ADP走航观测结果基本一致,两者的均方差为0.03 m/s.通过ADP走航期间双向声传播时间差的平均值和ADP走航观测所得断面流量之间的线性关系,得到了整个观测期间断面流量的时间序列.实验较好地捕捉到了因钱塘江涌潮而引起的流量变化,流量的最小值为 -3406 m³/s,最大为3509 m³/s.第一和第二实验阶段钱塘江的净流量分别为1329 m³/s和979 m³/s.以上结果表明用双向声传播测流方法可实现对河道流速和流量连续的监测.     

Turbulence and suspended sediment processes in the Garonne River tidal bore in November 2016

A tidal bore is a water discontinuity at the leading edge of a ood tide wave in estuaries with a large tidal range and funneling topography. New measurements were done in the Garonne River tidal bore on 14 15 November 2016, at a site previously investigated between 2010 and 2015. The data focused on long, continuous, high-frequency records of instantaneous velocity and suspended sediment con- centration (SSC) estimate for several hours during the late ebb, tidal bore passage and ood tide. The bore passage drastically modi ed the ow eld, with very intense turbulent and sediment mixing. This was evidenced with large and rapid uctuations of both velocity and Reynolds stress, as well as large SSCs during the ood tide. Granulometry data indicated larger grain sizes of suspended sediment in water samples compared to sediment bed material, with a broader distribution, shortly after the tidal bore. The tidal bore induced a sudden suspended sediment ux reversal and a large increase in suspended sedi- ment ux magnitude. The time-variations of turbulent velocity and suspended sediment properties indicated large uctuations throughout the entire data set. The ratio of integral time scales of SSC to velocity in the x-direction was on average TE,SSC/TE,x 0.16 during the late ebb tide, compared to TE,SSC/ TE,x 0.09 during the late ood tide. The results imply different time scales between turbulent velocities and suspended sediment concentrations.     

Fluid flow and sediment entrainment in the Garonne River bore and tidal bore collision

A detailed field study was carried out on a tidal bore to document the turbulent processes and sediment entrainment which occurred. The measured bore, within the Arcins Channel of the Garonne River (France), was undular in nature and was followed by well‐defined secondary wave motion. Due to the local river geometry a collision between the Arcins channel tidal bore and the bore which formed within the main Garonne River channel was observed about 800 m upstream of the sampling site. This bore collision generated a transient standing wave with a black water mixing zone. Following this collision the bore from the main Garonne River channel propagated ‘backward’ to the downstream end of the Arcins channel. Velocity measurements with a fine temporal resolution were complemented by measurements of the sediment concentration and river level. The instantaneous velocity data indicated large and rapid fluctuations of all velocity components during the tidal bore. Large Reynolds shear stresses were observed during and after the tidal bore passage, including during the 'backward' bore propagation. Large suspended sediment concentration estimates were recorded and the suspended sediment flux data showed some substantial sediment motion, consistent with the murky appearance of the flood tide waters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tidal waves at Mezen mouth and surge-wave formation conditions

The factors that govern the distribution and transformation of tidal waves in the macrotidal estuary of the Mezen River have been considered, including tide range in the mouth section, water discharge in the river’s lower reaches, estuary shape, and bed resistance coefficient. Data on variations of water discharge over period 1920–2008 are given. The parameters of estuary channel narrowing in horizontal and vertical sections have been considered. The effect of narrowing and bed hydraulic friction on tide wave amplitude has been evaluated. Froude number values for the tidal estuary suggest that tidal bore can form at the Mezen mouth. The conditions of the propagation of tidal waves to the mouths of different rivers and tidal bore formation in them are considered.     

Unexpected sedimentation patterns upstream and downstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir: Future risks

This paper summarizes the latest developments, future prospects, and proposed countermeasures of reservoir sedimentation and channel scour downstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on the Yangtze River in China. Three key results have been found.(1) The incoming sediment load to the TGR has been significantly lower than expected.(2) The accumulated volume of sediment deposition in the TGR is smaller than expected because the overall sediment delivery ratio is relatively low, and the deposition in the near-dam area of the TGR is still developing.(3) River bed scour in the river reaches downstream of the Gezhouba Dam is still occurring and channel scour has extended to reaches as far downstream as the Hukou reach. Significantly, sedimentation of the TGR is less problematic than expected since the start of operation of the TGR on the one hand;on the other hand, the possible increases in sediment risks from dependence on upstream sediment control, deposition in the reservoir, and scour along middle Yangtze River should be paid more attention.(1) Sediment trapped by dams built along the upper Yangtze River and billion tons of loose materials on unstable slopes produced by the Wenchuan Earthquake could be new sediment sources for the upper Yangtze River. More seriously, possible release of this sediment into the upper Yangtze River due to new earthquakes or extreme climate events could overwhelm the river system, and produce catastrophic consequences.(2) Increasing sediment deposition in the TGR is harmful to the safety and efficiency of project operation and navigation.(3) The drastic scour along the middle Yangtze River has intensified the down-cutting of the riverbed and erosion of revetment, it has already led to increasing risk to flood control structures and ecological safety. It is suggested to continue the Field Observation Program, to initiate research programs and to focus on risks of sedimentation.     

Channel sedimentation and erosion of the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River during the last 44 years

River channel sedimentation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River can be affected by both changes in sea level and changes in solid discharge from the upper river. To evaluate dynamic changes of sedimentation and erosion in the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River (about 330 km in length) from 1959 to 2003, databases were designed and constructed using a digital elevation model (DEM) of channel topography based on the Jiangsu River Relief Map for 1959, 1970, 1985, 1992, and 2003. The results indicated that the main course of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province had experienced an obvious switch from sedimentation to erosion status around 1985 because of the decreasing amount of solid load from the upper parts of the river channel after that year. The sedimentation process in the main course of the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River demonstrated the propulsive process of ‘downstream‐ward aggradations.’ Between 1985 and 2003, the erosion rate of the lower segment was greater than those of the middle and upper segments; this is probably because both channel flow and tide current had influenced the lower segment. When channel flow combines with tide current in the same direction, channel erosion can be intensified, especially if there is a solid load shortage in the channel. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

钱塘江干流夏季浮游植物群落结构特征及其对水文气象的响应

河流中浮游植物的动态变化能够较好的指示河流水质状况.为探索水文气象过程对筑坝河流浮游植物群落结构的影响,2020年夏季,以钱塘江干流为例,对包括富春江水库在内的11个河段开展了浮游植物群落结构及相关环境因子的调查分析.结果 表明:夏季在钱塘江干流共鉴定出浮游植物6门59属95种,优势属为沟链藻(Aulacoseir、菱...     

Impact of water diversion on the morphological development of the Lower Yellow River

In this paper we carry out a theoretical analysis based on the general one-dimensional morphodynamic model for rivers in order to show how the morphological equilibrium of a fiver is influenced by water and sediment diversion/supply along the river. The results of the analysis show that large scale water diversions, like those along the Lower Yellow River, can cause the development of a convex riverbed profile in the long-term. Deposition will take place along the whole reach of the river, with an increasing deposition depth from downstream to upstream. The slope of the river bed increases from upstream to downstream. Furthermore, an analysis on the morphological time scale shows that this development in the Lower Yellow River will take a time period on the order of decades to centuries. The results of the analysis have been compared with observations in the Lower Yellow River. Since the second half of the 1980＇s large scale water diversions from the Yellow River have been taking place. The observations show that this has indeed led to significant sedimentation along the river.     

Equilibrium relations for water and sediment transport in the Yellow River

The equilibrium relations for water and sediment transport refer to the relative balance of sediment transport and the relative stability of river courses formed by the automatic adjustment of riverbeds.This is the theoretical basis for the comprehensive management of sediment in the Yellow River.Based on the theories of sediment carrying capacity and the delayed response of riverbed evolution,in this study,the equilibrium relations for water and sediment transport in the Yellow River are established.These relations include the equilibrium relationships between water and sediment transport and bankfull discharge in the upper and lower Yellow River and between water and sediment transport and the Tongguan elevation in the middle Yellow River.The results reveal that for the Ningmeng reach,the Tongguan reach,and the lower Yellow River,erosion and deposition in the riverbeds are adjusted automatically,and water and sediment transport can form highly constrained equilibrium relationships.These newly established equilibrium relationships can be applied to calculate the optimal spatial allocation scheme for sediment in the Yellow River.     

Sedimentation of overbank floods in the confined complex channel–floodplain system of the Lower Yellow River,China

The channel boundary conditions along the Lower Yellow River (LYR) have been altered significantly since the 1950s with the continual reinforcement and construction of both main and secondary dykes and river training works. To evaluate how the confined complex channel–floodplain system of the LYR responds to floods, this study presents a detailed investigation of the relationship between the tempo‐spatial distribution of sedimentation/erosion and overbank floods occurred in the LYR. For large overbank floods, we found that when the sediment transport coefficient (ratio of sediment concentration of flow to flow discharge) is less than 0.034, the bankfull channel is subject to significant erosion, whereas the main and secondary floodplains both accumulate sediment. The amount of sediment deposited on the main and secondary floodplains is closely related to the ratio of peak discharge to bankfull discharge, volume of water flowing over the floodplains, and sediment concentration of overbank flow, whereas the degree of erosion in the bankfull channel is related to the amount of sediment deposited on the main and secondary floodplains, water volume, and sediment load in flood season. The significant increase in erosion in the bankfull channel is due to the construction of the main and secondary dykes and river training works, which are largely in a wide and narrow alternated pattern along the LYR such that the water flowing over wider floodplains returns to the channel downstream after it drops sediment. For small overbank floods, the bankfull channel is subject to erosion when the sediment transport coefficient is less than 0.028, whereas the amount of sediment deposited on the secondary floodplain is associated closely with the sediment concentration of flow. Over the entire length of the LYR, the situation of erosion in the bankfull channel and sediment deposition on the main and secondary floodplains occurred mainly in the upper reach of the LYR, in which a channel wandering in planform has been well developed.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF SEDIMENT TRANSPORT ALONG A RIVER REACH WITH A RESERVOIR

Based on long-term measurements at three gauging stations, Toudaoguai, Fugu and Hequ, and one meteorological station, this article discusses the features of discharge (Q) and sediment concentration (Cs) of a river reach of the Yellow River with a reservoir located in the Loess Plateau. The impacts of the local sub-watershed between Toudaoguai and Fugu gauging stations on sediment budget to the Yellow River have been analyzed. In addition, the deposition processes in the Tianqiao Reservoir have been investigated. Results show over 80% of the precipitation that falls in the local subwatershed is unable to contribute to the Yellow River runoff process. It is found that the annualmaximum sediment concentration is usually less than 30 kg/m^3 during flood seasons at Toudaoguai Gauging Station, but the sediment concentration varies dramatically at Fugu Gauging Station. About 35% of the sediment eroded in the sub-watersheds between Toudaoguai and Fugu gauging stationswas produced from the Huangfuchuan sub-watershed which has a drainage area accounting only for 10% of the drainage area between Toudaoguai and Fugu gauging stations. The Tianqiao Reservoir generally has deposition during the summer flood season, and scouring during the non-flood season.On average, over 85% of deposited sediment in the reservoir occurs in the 12 km long lower reservoir reach. The volume of annual deposition in the reservoir mainly depends on the volume of water from the local region between Hequ and Fugu gauging stations.     

Analysis of the sediment sources of flood driven erosion and deposition in the river channel of the Fu River Basin

Studying the characteristics of runoff and sediment processes and revealing the sources of sediment provide key guidance for the scientific formulation of relevant soil erosion protection measures and water conservancy development plans. In the current study, the flow and sediment data of five hydrological stations on the main stream of the Fu River Basin (FRB) from 2007 to 2018 were selected to identify flood events, explore the variation of sediment transport along the FRB, and clarify the sediment sources. The results found that the Jiangyou–Fujiangqiao section is the main source of sediment in the FRB during the flood season. The runoff volume and sediment load during flood events in the Jiangyou–Fujiangqiao section accounted for 35% and 145% respectively of that of Xiaoheba station. These results combined with the change of the sediment load before and after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (May 12) show that the sediment in this section mainly comes from the Fu River tributary–the Tongkou River watershed. The calculation results for the sediment carrying capacity of the Fu River show that the main stream was in a state of erosion in theory. However, according to the calculation results for the interval sediment yield during flood events, the sediment load at the Xiaoheba station was smaller than that at the Shehong station upstream. The analysis indicates that this was not because of sediment deposition in the river channel, but because of sand mining in the river channel and sediment interception by water conservancy projects. If heavy rainfall occurs in the FRB, the sediment accumulated upstream will move downstream with the resulting flood, and the sediment yield in the FRB may further increase. These research conclusions can provide reference information for improving the prediction and management ability of soil and water loss in the FRB and scientific regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir.     

Seasonal variation of river and tide energy in the Yangtze estuary,China

In many large estuaries there are significant variations in flow conditions due to the interaction between tide (with spring–neap changes) and river discharge (with wet–dry seasons), which is key to understanding the evolution of the morphology and the resultant equilibrium state. To explore whether there exists an equilibrium state, and what might control such a state in such a dynamic environment, both numerical and analytical methods have been used to investigate the relative importance of tide and river contributions to the work done locally and globally over a wide range of discharge conditions in the Yangtze estuary. In particular, we have quantified the contributions from the tidal flow, the river flow and the tide–river interaction in terms of energy and its dissipation under different river discharge conditions. Model results suggest that there is a state of minimum tidal work for the case representing the wet season, when river and tide are doing uniform work locally and minimum work globally, within the bi‐directional tidal reach for tide and along the whole estuary for river. We also observe that the system is not optimized for other conditions (peak discharge and low flows during the dry season), but the system would tend to do the minimum work possible given the constraints on the system (e.g. imposed forcing conditions and available sediment supply). Results, therefore, are consistent with the use of these two energetic optimization principles, and the proposed method could be applicable to other alluvial estuaries. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新安江模型在资料匮乏的长江中下游山区中小流域洪水预报应用

水文资料匮乏流域的洪水预报(PUBs)是水文科学与工程中一个尚未解决的重大挑战.中国湿润山区中小流域大多是水文资料匮乏的流域,在此地区进行洪水预报的重要手段之一就是水文模型参数的估计.对基于参数物理意义的估算方法(以下简称物理估算法)及两种区域化方法进行了研究,将其用于新安江模型参数的估算及移植.皖南山区的29个中小流域被选作水文资料丰富的测量流域,鄂西山区的3个中小流域被视为水文资料匮乏的目标流域,目的是研究目标流域与测量流域空间位置较远但物理条件相似时,区域化等方法是否可以有效估计模型参数.结果表明,即使目标流域与测量流域空间距离较远,区域化及物理估算法也能一定程度上减少参数估计导致的模型效率损失,且在研究区的最优参数估计方案为单流域物理相似法结合回归法及物理估算法.为长江中下游资料匮乏的山区中小流域提出了可行的新安江模型参数估计方案,为该地区的洪水预报提供指导.     

Regularity of sediment transport and sedimentation during floods in the lower Yellow River,China

The flood season is the main period of flow,sediment transport,and sedimentation in the lower Yellow River(LYR).Within the flood season,most of the flow,sediment transport,and sedimentation occurs during flood events.Because of the importance of floods in forming riverbeds in the LYR,the regularity of sediment transport and sedimentation during floods in the LYR was studied.Measured daily discharge and sediment transport rate data for the LYR from 1960 to 2006 were used.A total of 299 floods were selected;these floods had a complete evolution of the flood process from the Xiaolangdi to the Lijin hydrological stations.For five hydrological stations(Xiaolangdi,Huayuankou,Gaocun,Aishan,and Lijin),a correlation was first established for floods of different magnitudes between the average sediment transport rate at a given station and the average sediment concentration at the closest upstream station.The results showed that the sediment transport rate at the downstream station was strongly correlated with the inflow(upstream station) sediment concentration during a flood event.A relation then was established between sedimentation in the LYR and the average sediment concentration at the Xiaolangdi station during a flood event.From this relation,the critical sediment concentrations were obtained for absolute erosion,sedimentation equilibrium,and absolute deposition during floods of different magnitudes in the LYR.The results of the current study contri b ute to a better understanding of the mechanisms of sediment transport and the regularity of sedimentation in the LYR during floods,and provide technical support to guide the joint operation of reservoirs and the regulation of the LYR.     

1987—2022年新安江水库（千岛湖）水面面积时空变化及其与水位、蓄水量的响应关系

水面面积、水位、蓄水量是水库水资源管理的重要基础数据,遥感是湖库水体提取、水位和蓄水量估算的重要技术手段。由于不同水体提取方法的适用性差异、测高卫星数据的有限时间覆盖度和开源数据集的时空分辨率不足等原因,湖库水面面积、水位、蓄水量的长时序、高频率时空变化监测仍存在一定挑战。本研究以新安江水库为研究区,结合多源遥感、气象、水文和土地利用等数据,基于Google Earth Engine云平台,运用水体指数法,分析1987—2022年新安江水库水面面积时空变化特征,构建水位—水面面积、水位—蓄水量和水面面积—蓄水量响应关系,探究水面面积时空变化成因。结果表明:(1)Landsat 5、Landsat 8和哨兵2号数据的最佳水体提取指数分别为AWEI_sh和GNDWI,F1-score分别为91.93%、91.03%和93.14%。相比于开放数据集GSWED(32.61%)、JRC GSW(76.17%)和ReaLSAT(69.76%),基于最优水体指数的水体提取结果具有最高的F1-score(91.26%);(2)时间上,1987—2022年新安江水库水面面积呈显著上升...     

洞庭湖的调节作用对荆江径流的影响

洞庭湖对荆江径流有高效率的调节作用。根据长系列水文资料分析表明,荆江径流经调节后,年平均径流量,汛期径流量与汛枯期径流比分别减少了２６．３％、３２．９％与３２．４％,年平均径流量与汛期径流量均呈沿程递减。这些在长江干流都是独一无二的。下荆江的流量最大变化幅度系数Ｑｋ为０．８９２,在长江干流属最小。     

THE OPERATION MODE OF "STORING THE CLEAR WATER AND DISCHARGING THE MUDDY FLOW" FOR RESERVOIRS BUILT ON HEAVILY SILT-LADEN RIVERS--A CASE STUDY OF THE SANMENXIA RESERVOIR

Observation of the operation of the Sanmenxia Reservoir on the Yellow River has led to the conclusion that to preserve a certain effective storage volume for reservoirs built on heavily silt-laden rivers is feasible if the reservoir is operated according to the principle known as "storing the clear water and discharging the muddy flow". The relative stability of the bed elevation at the end of the backwater and the reservoir's erosion and deposition equilibrium depend on the compatibility of the pool level maintained in non-flood seasons with the conditions of flow and sediment load during flood seasons. Operating the reservoir to regulate the flood and sediment load during flood seasons can reduce the rate of aggradation in the Lower Yellow River. The basic condition for applying the operation mode of "storing the clear water and discharging the muddy flow" is that a sufficient amount of water should be used for discharging sediment during flood seasons. Under the condition of extremely low flow years, reservoir sedimentation cannot be avoided even if this operation mode is adopted.