The Solar Ultraviolet Spectrum Estimated Using the Mg <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> Index and Ca <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> K Disk Activity

As part of a program to estimate the solar spectrum back to the early twentieth century, we have generated fits to UV spectral irradiance measurements from 1 – 410 nm. The longer wavelength spectra (150 – 410 nm) were fit as a function of two solar activity proxies, the Mg ii core-to-wing ratio, or Mg ii index, and the total Ca ii K disk activity derived from ground based observations. Irradiance spectra at shorter wavelengths (1 – 150 nm) where used to generate fits to the Mg ii core-to-wing ratio alone. Two sets of spectra were used in these fitting procedures. The fits at longer wavelengths (150 to 410 nm) were derived from the high-resolution spectra taken by the Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) on the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS). Spectra measured by the Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite were used for the fits at wavelengths from 1 to 150 nm. To generate fits between solar irradiance and solar proxies, this study uses the above irradiance data, the NOAA composite Mg ii index, and daily Ca ii K disk activity determined from images measured by Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). In addition to the fitting coefficients between irradiance and solar proxies, other results from this study include an estimated relationship between the fraction of the disk with enhanced Ca ii K activity and the Mg ii index, an upper bound of the average solar UV spectral irradiance during periods where the solar disk contains only regions of the quiet Sun, as was believed to be present during the Maunder Minimum, as well as results indicating that slightly more than 60% of the total solar irradiance (TSI) variability occurs between 150 and 400 nm.     

Similarities and Dissimilarities between the Variations of CME and Other Solar Parameters at Different Heliographic Latitudes and Time Scales

From the LASCO CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) catalog, the occurrence frequencies of all CMEs (all strong and weak CMEs, irrespective of their widths) were calculated for 3-month intervals and their 12-month running means determined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2007) and were compared with those of other solar parameters. The annual values of all-CME frequency were very well correlated (+ 0.97) with sunspot numbers, but several other parameters also had similarly high correlations. Comparisons of 12-month running means indicated that the sunspot numbers were very well correlated with solar electromagnetic radiations (Lyman-α, 2800-MHz flux, coronal green line index, solar flare indices, and X-ray background); but for corpuscular radiations [proton fluxes, solar energetic particles (SEP), CMEs, interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), and stream interaction regions (SIR)] and solar open magnetic fields, the correlations were lower. A notable feature was the appearance of two peaks during 2000 – 2002, and those double peaks in different parameters matched approximately except for proton fluxes and SEP and SIR frequencies. When hemispheric intensities were considered, north – south asymmetries appeared, more in some parameters than in others. When intensities in smaller latitude belts (10°) were compared, sunspot group numbers (SGN) were found to be confined mostly to latitudes within ± 30° of the solar equator, showing two peaks in all latitude belts, and during the course of the 11-year cycle, the double peaks shifted from middle to equatorial solar latitudes, just as seen in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In contrast, CME frequency was comparable at all latitude belts (including high, near-polar latitudes), having more than two peaks in almost all latitude belts, and the peaks were almost simultaneous in all latitude belts. Thus, the matching of SGN peaks with those of CME peaks was poor. Incidentally, the CME frequency data for all events (all widths) after 2003 are not comparable to earlier data, owing to inclusion of very weak (narrow) CMEs in later years. The frequencies are comparable with earlier data only for widths exceeding about 70°.     

Temporal Variations in Solar Irradiance Since 1947

The study of variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance is important for understanding how the Sun affects the Earth’s climate. A data-driven approach is used in this article to analyze and model the temporal variation of the TSI and Mg?ii index back to 1947. In both cases, observed data in the time interval of the satellite era, 1978?–?2013, were used for neural network (NN) model-design and testing. For this particular purpose, the evolution of the solar magnetic field is assumed to be the main driver for the day-to-day irradiance variability. First, we design a model for the Mg?ii index data from F10.7 cm solar radio-flux using the NN approach in the time span of 1978 through 2013. Results of Mg?ii index model were tested using various numbers of hidden nodes. The predicted values of the hidden layer with five nodes correspond well to the composite Mg?ii values. The model reproduces 94% of the variability in the composite Mg?ii index, including the secular decline between the 1996 and 2008 solar cycle minima. Finally, the extrapolation of the Mg?ii index was performed using the developed model from F10.7 cm back to 1947. Similarly, the NN model was designed for TSI variability study over the time span of the satellite era using data from the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD) as a target, and solar activity indices as model inputs. This model was able to reproduce the daily irradiance variations with a correlation coefficient of 0.937 from sunspot and facular measurements in the time span of 1978?–?2013. Finally, the temporal variation of the TSI was analyzed using the designed NN model back to 1947 from the Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) and the extrapolated Mg?ii index. The extrapolated TSI result indicates that the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 19 and 21 are closely comparable to each other, and Solar Cycle 20 appears to be of lower irradiance during its maximum.     

Solar-Cycle Characteristics Examined in Separate Hemispheres: Phase,Gnevyshev Gap,and Length of Minimum

According to research results from solar-dynamo models, the northern and southern hemispheres may evolve separately throughout the solar cycle. The observed phase lag between the northern and southern hemispheres provides information regarding how strongly the hemispheres are coupled. Using hemispheric sunspot-area and sunspot-number data from Cycles 12 – 23, we determine how out of phase the separate hemispheres are during the rising, maximum, and declining period of each solar cycle. Hemispheric phase differences range from 0 – 11, 0 – 14, and 2 – 19 months for the rising, maximum, and declining periods, respectively. The phases appear randomly distributed between zero months (in phase) and half of the rise (or decline) time of the solar cycle. An analysis of the sunspot cycle double peak, or Gnevyshev gap, is conducted to determine if the double-peak is caused by the averaging of two hemispheres that are out of phase. We confirm previous findings that the Gnevyshev gap is a phenomenon that occurs in the separate hemispheres and is not due to a superposition of sunspot indices from hemispheres slightly out of phase. Cross hemispheric coupling could be strongest at solar minimum, when there are large quantities of magnetic flux at the Equator. We search for a correlation between the hemispheric phase difference near the end of the solar cycle and the length of solar-cycle minimum, but found none. Because magnetic flux diffusion across the Equator is a mechanism by which the hemispheres couple, we measured the magnetic flux crossing the Equator by examining Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope and SOLIS magnetograms for Solar Cycles 21 – 23. We find, on average, a surplus of northern hemisphere magnetic flux crossing during the mid-declining phase of each solar cycle. However, we find no correlation between magnitude of magnetic flux crossing the Equator, length of solar minima, and phase lag between the hemispheres.     

Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the North – South Asymmetry of Solar Activity

The north – south (N – S) asymmetry of solar activity is investigated by using the data on coronal green-line brightness and total number and total area of sunspots over the period of 1939  –  2001. Typical time variations of the N – S asymmetry are found to be consonant in these indices. Quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of solar activity are well recognizable in the N – S asymmetry of the examined indices. Moreover, the QBO are much better manifested in the N – S asymmetry of the individual indices than in the original (N plus S) indices. The time variations of relative QBO power are synchronous for the N – S asymmetry of various solar activity indices whereas such a synchronization is weaker for the indices themselves. It is revealed that the relative QBO power found in the N – S asymmetry of the studied indices has a negative correlation with the value of the N – S asymmetry itself. The findings indicate that the N – S asymmetry should be regarded as a fundamental phenomenon of solar activity similarly manifested in different activity indices. These findings should be taken into account when any dynamo theory of solar activity is constructed.     

Variability of Extended Bipolar Regions

Using NSO/Kitt Peak synoptic charts from 1975 to 2003, we group the main solar magnetic fields into two categories: one for active regions (ARs) and the other for extended bipolar regions (EBRs). Comparing them, we find that there exist three typical characteristics in the variability of EBRs: First, there exists a correlation between ARs and EBRs. The phase of EBR flux has a delay nearly two CRs. Second, we find that the EBR flux has two prominent periods at 1.79 years and 3.21 years. The 1.79-year period seems to only belong to large-scale magnetic features. Lastly, the North – South asymmetry of EBR flux is not very significant on a time scale of one solar cycle. However, during solar maxima, its dominance is found to shift from one hemisphere to the other.     

Statistical Comparison of Magnetic Clouds with Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections for Solar Cycle 23

We compare the number and characteristics of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to those of magnetic clouds (MCs) by using in-situ solar wind plasma and magnetic field observations made at 1 AU during solar cycle 23. We found that ≈ 28% of ICMEs appear to contain MCs, since 103 magnetic clouds (MCs) occurred during 1995  – 2006, and 307 ICMEs occurred during 1996 – 2006. For the period between 1996 and 2006, 85 MCs are identified as part of ICMEs, and six MCs are not associated with ICMEs, which conflicts with the idea that MCs are usually a subset of ICMEs. It was also found that solar wind conditions inside MCs and ICMEs are usually similar, but the linear correlation between geomagnetic storm intensity (Dst _min) and relevant solar wind parameters is better for MCs than for ICMEs. The differences between average event duration (Δt) and average proton plasma β (〈β〉) are two of the major differences between MCs and ICMEs: i) the average duration of ICMEs (29.6 h) is 44% longer than for MCs (20.6 hours), and ii) the average of 〈β〉 is 0.01 for MCs and 0.24 for ICMEs. The difference between the definition of a MC and that for an ICME is one of the major reasons for these average characteristics being different (i.e., listed above as items i) and ii)), and it is the reason for the frequency of their occurrences being different.     

Periodicity of Total Solar Irradiance

We investigate the periodicity in the PMOD composite of the daily total solar irradiance (TSI) from 21 September 1978 to 9 June 2009. Besides the Schwabe cycle period (10.32 years), the quasi-rotation period is found to be statistically significant in TSI, whose value is about 32 days, longer than that in sunspot activity (27 days), and it intermittently appears around the sunspot maximum times. The quasi-rotation period in TSI is inferred to be mainly caused by sunspot activity, but to be modulated by bright features as well. It was previously found that variations of TSI over a Schwabe solar cycle mainly come from the combination of the sunspots’ blocking and the intensification due to bright faculae, plages, and network elements, with a slight dominance of the bright-feature effect during the maximum of the Schwabe cycle. For the sunspot-blocking and the bright-feature effect to contribute to TSI over a Schwabe solar cycle, the former is inferred to lead the latter by 29 days at least.     

Spatial and Spectral Behaviors of Solar Flares Observed in Microwaves

The spatial and spectral behaviors of two solar flares observed by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH) on 24 August 2002 and 22 August 2005 are explored. They were observed with a single loop-top source and double footpoint sources at the beginning, then with looplike structures for the rest of the event. NoRH has high spatial and temporal resolution at the two frequencies of 17 and 34 GHz where a nonthermal radio source is often optically thin. Such capabilities give us an opportunity to study the spatial and spectral behaviors of different microwave sources. The 24 August 2002 flare displayed a soft – hard – soft (SHS) spectral pattern in the rising – peak – decay phases at 34 GHz, which was also observed for the spectral behavior of both loop-top and footpoint sources. In contrast, the 22 August 2005 flare showed a soft – hard – harder (SHH) spectral pattern for its both loop-top and footpoint sources. It is interesting that this event showed a harder spectrum in the early rising phase. We found a positive correlation between the spectral index and microwave flux in both the loop-top source and the footpoint sources in both events. The conclusions drawn from the flux index could apply to the electron index as well, because of their simple linear relationship under the assumption of nonthermal gyrosynchrotron mechanism. Such a property of spatial and spectral behaviors of microwave sources gives an observational constraint on the electron acceleration mechanism and electron propagation.     

The Solar Spectral Irradiance as a Function of the Mg <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> Index for Atmosphere and Climate Modelling

We present a new method to reconstruct the solar spectrum irradiance in the Ly α – 400 nm region, and its variability, based on the Mg ii index and neutron-monitor measurements. Measurements of the solar spectral irradiance available in the literature have been made with different instruments at different times and different spectral ranges. However, climate studies require harmonised data sets. This new approach has the advantage of being independent of the absolute calibration and aging of the instruments. First, the Mg ii index is derived using solar spectra from Ly α (121 nm) to 410 nm measured from 1978 to 2010 by several space missions. The variability of the spectra with respect to a chosen reference spectrum as a function of time and wavelength is scaled to the derived Mg ii index. The set of coefficients expressing the spectral variability can be applied to the chosen reference spectrum to reconstruct the solar spectra within a given time frame or Mg ii index values. The accuracy of this method is estimated using two approaches: direct comparison with particular cases where solar spectra are available from independent measurements, and calculating the standard deviation between the measured spectra and their reconstruction. From direct comparisons with measurements we obtain an accuracy of about 1 to 2%, which degrades towards Ly α. In a further step, we extend our solar spectral-irradiance reconstruction back to the Maunder Minimum introducing the relationship between the Mg ii index and the neutron-monitor data. Consistent measurements of the Mg ii index are not available prior to 1978. However, we remark that over the last three solar cycles, the Mg ii index shows strong correlation with the modulation potential determined from the neutron-monitor data. Assuming that this correlation can be applied to the past, we reconstruct the Mg ii index from the modulation potential back to the Maunder Minimum, and obtain the corresponding solar spectral-irradiance reconstruction back to that period. As there is no direct measurement of the spectral irradiance for this period we discuss this methodology in light of the other proposed approaches available in the literature. The use of the cosmogenic-isotope data provides a major advantage: it provides information about solar activity over several thousands years. Using technology of today, we can calibrate the solar irradiance against activity and thus reconstruct it for the times when cosmogenic-isotope data are available. This calibration can be re-assessed at any time, if necessary.     

Sharp Changes of Solar Wind Ion Flux and Density Within and Outside Current Sheets

Analysis of the Interball-1 spacecraft data (1995 – 2000) has shown that the solar wind ion flux sometimes increases or decreases abruptly by more than 20% over a time period of several seconds or minutes. Typically, the amplitude of such sharp changes in the solar wind ion flux (SCIFs) is larger than 0.5×10⁸ cm⁻² s⁻¹. These sudden changes of the ion flux were also observed by the Solar Wind Experiment (SWE), on board the Wind spacecraft, as the solar wind density increases and decreases with negligible changes in the solar wind velocity. SCIFs occur irregularly at 1 AU, when plasma flows with specific properties come to the Earth’s orbit. SCIFs are usually observed in slow, turbulent solar wind with increased density and interplanetary magnetic field strength. The number of times SCIFs occur during a day is simulated using the solar wind density, magnetic field, and their standard deviations as input parameters for a period of five years. A correlation coefficient of ∼0.7 is obtained between the modelled and the experimental data. It is found that SCIFs are not associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), corotating interaction regions (CIRs), or interplanetary shocks; however, 85% of the sector boundaries are surrounded by SCIFs. The properties of the solar wind plasma for days with five or more SCIF observations are the same as those of the solar wind plasma at the sector boundaries. One possible explanation for the occurrence of SCIFs (near sector boundaries) is magnetic reconnection at the heliospheric current sheet or local current sheets. Other probable causes of SCIFs (inside sectors) are turbulent processes in the slow solar wind and at the crossings of flux tubes.     

Manifestations of the North – South Asymmetry in the Photosphere and in the Green Line Corona

The north – south asymmetries (NSA) of three solar activity indices are derived and mutually compared over a period of more than five solar cycles (1945 – 2001). A catalogue of the hemispheric sunspot numbers, the data set of the coronal green line brightness developed by us, and the magnetic flux derived from the NSO/KP data (1975 – 2001) are treated separately within the discrete low- and mid-latitude zones (5° – 30°, 35° – 60°). The calculated autocorrelations, cross-correlations, and regressions between the long-term NSA data sets reveal regularities in the solar activity phenomenon. Namely, the appearance of a distinct quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is evident in all selected activity indices. Nevertheless, a smooth behavior of QBO is derived only when sufficient temporal averaging is performed over solar cycles. The variation in the significance and periodicity of QBO allows us to conclude that the QBO is not persistent over the whole solar cycle. A similarity in the photospheric and coronal manifestations of the NSA implies that their mutual relation will also show the QBO. A roughly two-year periodicity is actually obtained, but again only after significant averaging over solar cycles. The derived cross-correlations are in fact variable in degree of correlation as well as in changing periodicity. A clear and significant temporal shift of 1 – 2 months in the coronal manifestation of the magnetic flux asymmetry relative to the photospheric manifestation is revealed as a main property of their mutual correlation. This shift can be explained by the delayed large-scale coronal manifestation in responding to the emergence of the magnetic flux in the photosphere. The reliability of the derived results was confirmed by numerical tests performed by selecting different numerical values of the used parameters.     

Solar Cycle Variation of the Interplanetary Forward Shock Drivers Observed at 1 AU

Forecasting space weather more accurately from solar observations requires an understanding of the variations in physical properties of interplanetary (IP) shocks as solar activity changes. We examined the characteristics (occurrence rate, physical parameters, and types of shock driver) of IP shocks. During the period of 1995 – 2001, a total of 249 forward IP shocks were observed. In calculating the shock parameters, we used the solar wind data from Wind at the solar minimum period (1995 – 1997) and from ACE since 1998 including the solar maximum period (1999 – 2001). Most of IP shocks (68%) are concentrated in the solar maximum period. The values of physical quantities of IP shocks, such as the shock speed, the sonic Mach number, and the ratio of plasma density compression, are larger at solar maximum than at solar minimum. However, the ratio of IMF compression is larger at solar minimum. The IP shock drivers are classified into four groups: magnetic clouds (MCs), ejecta, high speed streams (HSSs), and unidentified drivers. The MC is the most dominant and strong shock driver and 150 out of total 249 IP shocks are driven by MCs. The MC is a principal and very effective shock driver not only at solar maximum but also at solar minimum, in contrast to results from previous studies, where the HSS is considered as the dominant IP shock driver.     

Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using Geomagnetic Precursors: Validation and Update

In the previous study (Dabas et al. in Solar Phys. 250, 171, 2008), to predict the maximum sunspot number of the current solar cycle 24 based on the geomagnetic activity of the preceding sunspot minimum, the Ap index was used which is available from the last six to seven solar cycles. Since a longer series of the aa index is available for more than the last 10 – 12 cycles, the present study utilizes aa to validate the earlier prediction. Based on the same methodology, the disturbance index (DI), which is the 12-month moving average of the number of disturbed days (aa≥50), is computed at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1,2,…,13; each of them in six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle. Then its correlation with the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle is evaluated. As in the case of Ap, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum, gives the best correlation (R=0.96) with a minimum standard error of estimation (SEE) of ± 9. As applied to cycle 24, the aa index as precursor yields the maximum sunspot number of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is within the 90% prediction interval of the earlier prediction (124±23 using Ap). Furthermore, the same method is applied to an expanded range of cycles 11 – 23, and once again variate block 9 gives the best correlation (R=0.95) with a minimum SEE of ± 13. The relation yields the modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 131±20, which is also close to our earlier prediction and is likely to occur at about 43±4 months after its minimum (December 2008), probably in July 2012 (± 4 months).     

A Preliminary Estimate of the Size of the Coming Solar Cycle 24, based on Ohl’s Precursor Method

For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles. However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min ) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min ) versus Rz(max )], using data for sunspot cycles 9 – 18 to predict the Rz(max ) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 – 19 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 – 23 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 – 2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted Rz(max ) for cycle 24 is 142±24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124±26.) This result of the precursor method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 – 200), so that whatever may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23.     

Radial Evolution of Well-Observed Slow CMEs in the Distance Range 2 – 30 <Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis><Subscript>⊙</Subscript>

We performed a detailed analysis of 27 slow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) whose heights were measured in at least 30 coronagraphic images and were characterized by a high quality index (≥4). Our primary aim was to study the radial evolution of these CMEs and their properties in the range 2 – 30 solar radii. The instantaneous speeds of CMEs were calculated by using successive height – time data pairs. The obtained speed – distance profiles [v(R)] are fitted by a power law v = a(R−b) ^c . The power-law indices are found to be in the ranges a=30 – 386, b=1.95 – 3.92, and c=0.03 – 0.79. The power-law exponent c is found to be larger for slower and narrower CMEs. With the exception of two events that had approximately constant velocity, all events were accelerating. The majority of accelerating events shows a v(R) profile very similar to the solar-wind profile deduced by Sheeley et al. (Astrophys. J. 484, 472, 1997). This indicates that the dynamics of most slow CMEs are dominated by the solar wind drag.     

Empirical Modeling of Radiative <Emphasis Type="Italic">versus</Emphasis> Magnetic Flux for the Sun-as-a-Star

We study the relationship between full-disk solar radiative flux at different wavelengths and average solar photospheric magnetic-flux density, using daily measurements from the Kitt Peak magnetograph and other instruments extending over one or more solar cycles. We use two different statistical methods to determine the underlying nature of these flux – flux relationships. First, we use statistical correlation and regression analysis and show that the relationships are not monotonic for total solar irradiance and for continuum radiation from the photosphere, but are approximately linear for chromospheric and coronal radiation. Second, we use signal theory to examine the flux – flux relationships for a temporal component. We find that a well-defined temporal component exists and accounts for some of the variance in the data. This temporal component arises because active regions with high magnetic-field strength evolve, breaking up into small-scale magnetic elements with low field strength, and radiative and magnetic fluxes are sensitive to different active-region components. We generate empirical models that relate radiative flux to magnetic flux, allowing us to predict spectral-irradiance variations from observations of disk-averaged magnetic-flux density. In most cases, the model reconstructions can account for 85 – 90% of the variability of the radiative flux from the chromosphere and corona. Our results are important for understanding the relationship between magnetic and radiative measures of solar and stellar variability.     

Correlation Function Analysis between Sunspot Cycle Amplitudes and Rise Times

The running cross-correlation coefficient between solar-cycle amplitudes and rise times at a certain cycle lag is found to vary in time, when using the smoothed monthly-mean sunspot group numbers available for 1610 – 1995. It may be negative or positive for different periods of time. The Waldmeier effect (in which the rise times decrease with amplitude) is also found to be very weak for some cycles. This result represents an observational constraint on solar-dynamo models and can help us better understand the long-term evolution of solar activity.     

The Long-term Behavior of the North – South Asymmetry of Sunspot Activity

A new index, the cumulative difference of sunspot activity in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, is proposed to describe the long-term behavior of the North – South asymmetry of sunspot activity and to show the balance (or bias) of sunspot activity in the two solar hemispheres on a long-term scale. Sunspot groups and sunspot areas from June 1874 to January 2007 are used to show the advantage of the index. The index clearly shows a long-term characteristic time scale of about 12 cycles in the North – South asymmetry of sunspot activity. Sunspot activity is found to dominate in the southern hemisphere in cycle 23, and in cycle 24 it is predicted to dominate still in the southern hemisphere. A comparison of the new index with other similar indexes is also given.     

Dynamic and Thermal Disappearance of Prominences and Their Geoeffectiveness

This paper is a qualitative study of 42 events of solar filament/prominence sudden disappearances (“disparitions brusques”; henceforth DBs) around two solar minima, 1985 – 1986 and 1994. The studied events were classified as 17 thermal and 25 dynamic disappearances. Associated events, i.e. coronal mass ejections (CMEs), type II bursts, evolution of nearby coronal holes, as well as solar wind speed, and geomagnetic disturbances are discussed. We have found that about 50% of the thermal DBs with adjacent (within 15° from the DB) coronal holes were associated with CMEs within a selected time window. All the studied thermal disappearances with adjacent coronal holes or accompanied by dynamic disappearances were associated with weak and medium geomagnetic storms. Also, nearly 64% of dynamic DBs were associated with CMEs. Ten (40%) dynamic disappearances were associated with intense geomagnetic storms, even when no CMEs was reported, six (24%) dynamic disappearances corresponded to extreme storms, and five (20%) corresponded to medium geomagnetic storms. The extreme geomagnetic storms appeared to be related to combined events, involving dynamic disappearances with adjacent coronal holes or including thermal disappearances. Furthermore, the geomagnetic activity (Dst index) increased if the source was close to the central meridian (±30°). The highest interplanetary magnetic field (B), longest duration, lowest southward direction B _z component, and lowest Dst were highly correlated for all studied events. The Sun – Earth transit time computed from the starting time of the sudden disappearance and the time its effect was measured at Earth was about 4.3 days and was mainly well correlated with the solar wind speed measured in situ (daily value).