新版地面气象测报软件应用的几个问题

针对新版地面测报软件在数据采集、报表审核、年报表统计中存在的一些问题，介绍如何查找错误及如何解决统计错误的方法。     

安徽自动站运行效能统计特征分析与诊断

从自动气象站业务运行特点出发,以ASOM监控安徽省81套国家级自动气象站运行为基础,统计评估了2010年自动站业务运行到报率、可用性的效能情况.根据基准站、基本站和一般站逐月运行效能统计特征,分析了未到报、报文格式错误和数据错误3者对可用性的影响,针对报文格式错误的个案特征,重点研究了出现报文格式错误与人机交互发报操作时间的定量关系,得到了定量化的发报阈值时间小于等于45 s.为提高自动气象站运行能力和业务质量,提出了解决报文字节格式错误的可行措施.     

关于X2检验的信度选取问题

一、问题的提出 对预报指标进行x~2检验的目的,是对预报指标是否可靠作出统计推断。统计推断会发生错误——把实际无用指标误认为有用指标,或把有用指标当成无用指标都是可能发生的。而这样的推断错误对不同的实际问题产生的影响却是不同的。比如,由于统计推断错误,把一条有用的灾害性天气预报指标当成无用指标舍弃,就比舍弃一条有用的一般性天气预报指标更可惜。又如,经常把实际无用指标当成有用指标使用,     

天气短信采编中的常见错误

统计分析广东气象短信错漏短信库2007～2008年,731d逐日收集的532条错漏短信,总结错漏短信类型,按漏字多字、日期错误、内容问题、错字、属地错误、超字以及报文错误7大类统计各类别错误率,逐类别找出易出错点,分析出错原因。     

气象学中使用统计检验的几个重要注记

在气候诊断研究和短期气候预测中广泛使用统计方法,例如相关分析和合成分析.本文对国内外文献中对统计检验显著性水平的各种描述进行了评论,指出了错误.指出了描述统计检验的结果时应该注意的问题.认为,对相关系数和合成分析等统计检验的描述,不应该称为"95%的信度","95%的显著性水平",而应该称为"5%的信度(显著性水平)",或者"95%的置信水平".还指出,统计检验或者显著性检验不应该被改称为信度检验,并分析了错误与产生混乱的原因.     

浅谈微机制作基准站报表

浅谈微机制作基准站报表田红卫（绥德县气象局绥德·７１８０００）用微机制作基准站报表有以下特点：１报表统计只要原始记录输入正确，微机可进行准确的报表统计，井能按照规范规定对缺测记录进行统计，大大减轻了报表制作的工作量，避免了统计错误对报表合格率的影响。...     

广东天气短信自动查错模型的建立

通过对2013年广东天气短信错漏情况进行统计和分析,归纳了错别字、漏字多字、内容问题、数据错误、属地错误、符号错误、超字共8种错漏类型。基于错漏类型特点,设计天气短信自动查错模型,用计算机实现与现有的广东气象短信信息管理平台整合起来,模型中具体采用了错词库文本检查、N-Gram查错方法和一些计算机函数算法。天气短信自动查错模型的建立及应用很大程度减轻人工审核工作量,也能将短信出错概率降至最低。     

相关指标未来可用性的探讨

当前制作长期天气预报主要是用天气统计的方法。但统计相关好的预报指标,不一定存在前因后果的内在联系,实际验证的准确率往往低于指标的历史拟合率。从统计角度看,可以认为:如果指标验证结果正确,表明指标的相关性持续;如果指标验证结果错误,则表明指标的相关性转移。为了解指标未来相     

高空记录预审中技术性错误的判断

台站高空预审核时,如何判断原始记录中技术性错误?现将近年来我在预审工作中遇到的各种记录疑误作一归纳分析,并试图用天气学和高空气象学原理进行阐述。所谓“技术性错误”,一般是指非计算错误,即通常所说的执行技术规定有误或对可疑、反常、漏改(测)、下沉、切变等特     

1997年AB报文编码错误原因分析

统计了广西２９个农气ＡＢ报发报站点１９９７年出现的各类编码错情,并分析了出现编码错误的原因,提出减少或避免错情出现的建议     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.