Prediction of long-period ground motions from huge subduction earthquakes in Osaka,Japan

There is a high possibility of reoccurrence of the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes along the Nankai Trough in Japan. It is very important to predict the long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 8.1 and 8.4, respectively, to mitigate their disastrous effects. In this study, long-period (>2.5 s) ground motions were predicted using an earthquake scenario proposed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion in Japan. The calculations were performed using a fourth-order finite difference method with a variable spacing staggered-grid in the frequency range 0.05–0.4 Hz. The attenuation characteristics (Q) in the finite difference simulations were assumed to be proportional to frequency (f) and S-wave velocity (V _s) represented by Q = f · V _s / 2. Such optimum attenuation characteristic for the sedimentary layers in the Osaka basin was obtained empirically by comparing the observed motions during the actual M5.5 event with the modeling results. We used the velocity structure model of the Osaka basin consisting of three sedimentary layers on bedrock. The characteristics of the predicted long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes depend significantly on the complex thickness distribution of the sediments inside the basin. The duration of the predicted long-period ground motions in the city of Osaka is more than 4 min, and the largest peak ground velocities (PGVs) exceed 80 cm/s. The predominant period is 5 to 6 s. These preliminary results indicate the possibility of earthquake damage because of future subduction earthquakes in large-scale constructions such as tall buildings, long-span bridges, and oil storage tanks in the Osaka area.     

A seismological overview of long-period ground motion

Long-period ground motion has become an increasingly important consideration because of the recent rapid increase in the number of large-scale structures, such as high-rise buildings and oil storage tanks. Large subduction-zone earthquakes and moderate to large crustal earthquakes can generate far-source long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins with the help of path effects. Near-fault long-period ground motions are generated, for the most part, by the source effects of forward rupture directivity. Far-source long-period ground motions consist primarily of surface waves with longer durations than near-fault long-period ground motions. They were first recognized in the seismograms of the 1968 Tokachi-oki and 1966 Parkfield earthquakes, and their identification has been applied to the 1964 Niigata earthquake and earlier earthquakes. Even if there is no seismogram, we can identify far-source long-period ground motions through the investigation of tank damage by liquid sloshing.     

Prediction of ground motion in the Osaka sedimentary basin associated with the hypothetical Nankai earthquake

We studied the long-period ground motions in the Osaka sedimentary basin, Japan, which contains a 1- to 3-km thickness of sediments and is the site of many buildings or construction structures with long-natural period. We simulated the broadband ground motions likely to be produced by the hypothetical Nankai earthquake: the earthquake expected to give rise to the most severe long-period ground motion within the basin. For the simulation, we constructed multiscale heterogeneous source models based on the Central Disaster Management Council of Japan (CDMC) source model and adopted a hybrid computation method in which long-period motion and short-period motion are computed using a 3-D finite difference method and the stochastic Green’s function method, respectively. In computing long-period motions, we used a 3-D structure model of the crust and the Osaka sedimentary basin. The ground motions are estimated to have peak velocities of 50–90 cm/s, prolonged durations exceeding 300 s, and long predominant periods of 5–10 s in the area with great thickness of sediments. The predominant periods are in agreement with an approximate evaluation by 4 H/V _s where H and V _s are the thickness of the sediment and the average S wave velocity, respectively.     

Influence of Rivera-Cocos Plate Boundary Geodynamics on Earthquake Intensity Patterns: the 9 October 1995 (Mw 8.0) and 21 (22) January 2003 (Mw 7.5) Earthquakes

This study examines two large thrust subduction earthquakes occurring within the Rivera-Cocos plate boundary which struck the western coast of México on 9 October 1995, Mw 8.0, and 21 (22 GMT) January 2003, Mw 7.5. The Modified Mercalli (MM) earthquake intensities observed during these earthquakes were surprising for some towns located in the Mexican coastal zone. During the smaller Mw 7.5 2003 earthquake, MM intensity VII was observed for towns of Colima, Villa de Alvarez and Ixtlahuacán, while during the larger Mw 8.0 1995 earthquake, their MM intensities were only IV?CV, V and V?CVI, respectively. We construct the macroseismic patterns for these two earthquakes and discuss the possible reasons for the significant difference in the outline of the MM VII isoseismals, such as the tectonic setting of epicentral zones and the directivity of rupture processes along and across the coastal line.     

Validation of the Deep Velocity Structure of the Tokachi Basin Based on 3-D Simulation of Long-Period Ground Motions

The construction of 3-D basin velocity structures is ongoing in many regions of Japan. The structure models are constructed mainly for the prediction of long-period ground motions from future large earthquakes. In this paper, we validate the 3-D velocity structure model of the Tokachi basin, a deep sedimentary basin located in eastern Hokkaido, Japan, based on 3-D simulation of long-period (2–20 s) ground motions from three nearby intermediate-depth earthquakes; this model was constructed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). We make comparisons between the observed and synthetic long-period ground motions for the basin-induced surface waves as well as the direct S-wave. We also try to revise the 3-D velocity structure in the western part of the Tokachi basin based on 1-D velocity structures estimated using long-period S-wave modeling and the microtremor survey method. We then perform the 3-D simulation again to validate the revised model. Based on quantitative comparisons of the long-period ground motions from these simulations with those observed, we conclude that the NIED and revised velocity structure models are generally good at the central basin sites, but that both models require modification at the basin edges to explain the details of the observed basin-induced surface waves.     

Broadband Ground Motion Reconstruction for the Kanto Basin during the 1923 Kanto Earthquake

Ground motions of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake inside the Kanto Basin are numerically simulated in a wide frequency range (0?C10?Hz) based on new knowledge of the earthquake??s source processes, the sedimentary structure of the basin, and techniques for generating broadband source models of great earthquakes. The Kanto Earthquake remains one of the most important exemplars for ground motion prediction in Japan due to its size, faulting geometry, and location beneath the densely populated Kanto sedimentary basin. We reconstruct a broadband source model of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake from inversion results by introducing small-scale heterogeneities. The corresponding ground motions are simulated using a hybrid technique comprising the following four calculations: (1) low-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a finite difference method; (2) high-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a stochastic Green??s function method; (3) total ground motion of the engineering basement (i.e. 1?+?2); and (4) ground motion at the surface in response to the total basement ground motion. We employ a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) velocity structure model of the Kanto Basin that incorporates prospecting data, microtremor observations and measurements derived from strong ground motion records. Our calculations reveal peak ground velocities (PGV) exceeding 50?cm/s in the area above the fault plane: to the south, where the fault plane is shallowest, PGV reaches 150?C200?cm/s at the engineering basement and 200?C250?cm/s at the surface. Intensity 7, the maximum value in the Japan Meteorological Agency??s intensity scale, is calculated to have occurred widely in Sagami Bay, which corresponds well with observed house-collapse rates due to the 1923 event. The modeling reveals a pronounced forward directivity effect for the area lying above the southern, shallow part of the fault plane. The high PGV and intensity seen above the southeastern corner of the fault plane and further east are largely due to this effect. Waveforms above the fault plane contain both short- and long-period components, but the short-period components are not observed further afield. Away from the fault, long-period waves (>2?s) dominate the ground motion, and in areas where the base of the third layer is relatively deep, the predominant period is >5?s. Levels of long-period ground motion in the southern part of the study area, around Sagami Bay and the southern parts of Boso Peninsula and Tokyo Bay, exceed that recorded at Tomakomai during the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, when large oil storage tanks collapsed in response to sloshing generated by strong long-period motions.     

Finite-element simulations of long-period ground motions: Japanese subduction-zone earthquakes and the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

Large earthquakes at shallow depths commonly excite long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins, thereby inflicting damage upon large-scale structures. For example, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, Japan, damaged oil tanks in the Yufutsu Basin, located 250 km from the epicenter. Similar long-range effects were also observed during the 2004 earthquake off Kii Peninsula, Japan. In this study, we present the results of simulations of these earthquakes undertaken using the finite element method (FEM) with a voxel mesh. In addition, to examine whether the 1906 San Francisco earthquake excited long-period ground motions in the Los Angeles-area basins, we performed long-period ground motion simulations of most of the California region. The FEM simulations confirmed the importance of path effects for the development of long-period ground motions.     

The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake and response of high-rise buildings under long-period ground motions

In the afternoon of March 11, 2011, the eastern Japan was severely attacked by the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (the Great East Japan earthquake). Nearly 30,000 people were killed or are still missing by that earthquake and the ensuing monster tsunami as of April 11, 2011. This paper reports some aspects of this devastating earthquake which hit an advanced country in seismic resistant design. It has been reported that long-period ground motions were induced in Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka. The properties of these long-period ground motions are discussed from the viewpoint of critical excitation and the seismic behavior of two steel buildings of 40 and 60 stories subjected to the long-period ground motion recorded at Shinjuku, Tokyo is determined and discussed. This paper also reports the effectiveness of visco-elastic dampers like high-hardness rubber dampers in the reduction of responses of super high-rise buildings subjected to such long-period ground motions. The response reduction rate is investigated in detail in addition to the maximum response reduction. In December 2010 before this earthquake, simulated long-period ground motions for earthquake resistant design of high-rise buildings were provided in three large cities in Japan (Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka) and nine areas were classified. Two 40-story steel buildings (slightly flexible and stiff) are subjected to these long-period ground motions in those nine areas for the detailed investigation of response characteristics of super high-rise buildings in various areas.     

Lessons from the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake for prediction of long-period strong ground motions and sloshing damage to oil storage tanks

The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M _w 8.0) in northern Japan generated large-amplitude long-period (4–8 s) ground motions in the Yufutsu sedimentary basin, causing severe damage to seven large oil storage tanks with floating roof structures because of severe sloshing of oil. The 30,000–40,000-m³ tanks having suffered the severe damage such as fires and sinking of floating roofs experienced the sloshing with large amplitudes exceeding 3 m in which the fundamental mode was predominant. The second mode of sloshing was also excited in the 110,000-m³ tanks in which their floating roofs sank into oil, indicating that the higher modes of sloshing as well as the fundamental mode should be considered in damage prediction. The strong ground motion recordings demonstrated the earthquake dependency of predominant periods and the substantial spatial variation of the long-period shaking observed within the Yufutsu basin, meaning the necessity of source- and site-specific prediction of long-period strong ground motions. The two-dimensional numerical modeling suggested the importance of detailed structures of soft near-surface sediments as well as deep basin structure for accurate prediction of long-period strong ground motions in deep sedimentary basins.     

The fluid-driven tectonic swarm of Aysen Fjord,Chile (2007) associated with two earthquakes (Mw=6.1 and Mw=6.2) within the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone

A seismic swarm of more than 7200 earthquakes occurred in Aysen Fjord, southern Chile, from January to June 2007. It started suddenly on 23 January 2007 with an earthquake of magnitude Mw=5.3, followed by five earthquakes with magnitudes increasing from Mw=5.2 to 6.2 within three months. Two large earthquakes of magnitudes Mw=6.1 and 6.2 occurred on 02 and 21 April 2007, respectively. The latest earthquake generated landslides that induced a tsunami within the fjord, killing 10 people. This swarm has been examined using international seismic catalogues and seismicity located with a local seismic network; in particular its double tectonic and volcanic origin has been explored. All the focal mechanisms are compatible with the long- and short-term tectonics of the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone, a major intra-arc fault system of the Patagonian fjord land. The space, time, and size distributions of these earthquakes, that occurred within an active volcanic area revealed by the presence of several Holocene monogenetic volcanoes, may be explained both by fluid-induced (magma and/or hydrothermal fluids) activity combined with tectonic activity. The co-existence of these two tectonic and volcanic phenomena is a good example of retroactive links between fluids and tectonic fractures.     

基于汶川地震远场强震动记录的厚覆盖土层对长周期地震动影响分析

利用2008年5月12日汶川8．0级地震的远场强震动记录,研究太原盆地厚覆盖土层对长周期地震动的影响,并将其结果与地震安全性评价工作中的土层反应分析结果进行比较。结果表明：厚覆盖土层对长周期地震动有很强的放大作用,覆盖层厚度越厚,峰值出现的周期越大,而相对于基岩最大放大可达9倍左右。另外,对于厚覆盖层的场地,观测结果与场地地震安全性评价计算结果在一定的长周期范围内差别相当大,相对于基岩,观测结果的放大系数至少高于场地地震安全性评价计算结果的2倍以上,最大达到近9倍。     

A site effect study of the Adapazari basin,Turkey, from strong- and weak-motion data

Approximately 4000 people were killed due to collapse of buildings in downtown Adapazari during the 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake (Mw = 7.4). The downtown is located on a deep sedimentary basin, so-called Adapazari basin. We study site effects of the Adapazari basin based on strong- and weak-motion data obtained by a temporary array observation deployed in and around the Adapazari basin after the earthquake. Four moderate-size aftershocks (M4.6–M5.8) are selected in our study. We evaluate the S-wave amplifications in the basin by using the traditional spectral ratio method. The spectral ratios show that the S waves are considerably amplified in the frequency range of 0.5 to about 5 Hz at the basin sites, but are apparently de-amplified at frequencies higher than about 10 Hz. We make a quantitative interpretation of the empirical amplifications based on the S-wave velocity structures at the stiff-soil reference site as well as at the basin sites; these structures were estimated by the microtremor array measurements. Through the interpretation, we confirm that the amplifications at low frequencies are attributed to the thick sedimentary layers in the Adapazari basin and that the apparent de-amplifications at high frequencies are partly due to the reference site response. In addition to the considerable S-wave amplifications, the basin site records show long-period (about 2 sec) later phases after the S-wave arrival; these later phases are basin-transduced surface waves that are originated from the source and transmitted into the basin. The predominant period of these waves apparently depends on the earthquake magnitude. We conclude that heavy damage in downtown Adapazari during the 1999 Izmit earthquake was caused not only by strongly amplified S-waves but also by long-period basin surface waves of long duration.     

2011年新西兰Mw6.1地震震源过程及强地面运动特征初步分析

2011年2月21日新西兰南岛发生M_w6.1地震,震中位置43.58°S,172.70°E,震源深度约5.0 km,发震断层为新西兰第三大城市克赖斯特彻奇(Christchurch)南约9 km一条近东西走向的未知隐伏断层,为逆冲断层机制.地震已经造成163人遇难,Christchurch城内多处建筑物严重损毁,距震中约1 km的Heathcote Valley Primary School (HVSC)台站强地面运动峰值加速度(PGA)高达2.0g.针对新西兰M_w6.1地震近场强地面运动偏高这一现象,利用HVSC台站的强震观测记录,计算地震震源谱参数,应用Brune圆盘模型估算其近场强地面运动的理论值,并建立动态复合震源模型进行模拟计算.研究结果表明,新西兰M_w6.1地震近断层强地面运动偏高的主要原因为复杂震源破裂过程中有效应力降(动态应力降,Δσ_d)过高造成的.未来工作中,需要加强对可能发生的、距离城市较近的中小型地震的重视,防止地震对城市的加强型破坏.     

山地与平原地形对地震动影响的对比分析

山地和平原地形在破坏性地震中对震害和地震动有很大影响,不同地形对地震动有不同的地形效应。为研究山地和平原地形对地震动的影响规律,基于集集地震后续M L6.6余震的强震观测记录,对位于不同地形且与震中位于同一直线上的四个强震台记录处理计算,从波形特征、频谱分析、加速度反应谱计算、与规范谱比较等方面进行对比分析,完成长周期地震动反应谱分布的计算。研究表明,山地地形对地震动的高频成分有地形放大效应,沉积平原对地震动的低频长周期部分有放大作用,并且长周期反应谱的峰值区域始终位于沉积平原中部。平原上强震记录产生的长周期放大系数谱已超出规范谱,沉积平原上长周期建筑的抗震设防应引起重视。     

Source study of two small earthquakes of Delhi, India, and estimation of ground motion from future moderate, local events

We study source characteristics of two small, local earthquakes which occurred in Delhi on 28 April 2001 (Mw3.4) and 18 March 2004 (Mw2.6). Both earthquakes were located in the heart of New Delhi, and were recorded in the epicentral region by digital accelerographs. The depths of the events are 15 km and 8 km, respectively. First motions and waveform modeling yield a normal-faulting mechanism with large strike-slip component. The strike of one of the nodal planes roughly agrees with NE–SW orientation of faults and lineaments mapped in the region. We use the recordings of the 2004 event as empirical Green’s functions to synthesize expected ground motions in the epicentral region of a Mw5.0 earthquake in Delhi. It is possible that such a local event may control the hazard in Delhi. Our computations show that a Mw5.0 earthquake would give rise to PGA of ~200 to 450 gal, the smaller values occurring at hard sites. The estimate of corresponding PGV is ~6 to 15 cm/s. The recommended response spectra, Sa, 5% damping, for Delhi, which falls in zone IV of the Indian seismic zoning map, may not be conservative enough at soft sites for a postulated Mw5.0 local earthquake.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

Long-period ground motions from the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake

We study characteristics of long-period ground motions from the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mj 8.0), a large interplate earthquake, based on spatial distribution maps and attenuation relationships for four kinds of peak ground velocity (PGV) value. The first kind (PGV(WB)) is obtained from a maximal value of vector sum of the three-component, wide-band velocity seismograms, and the other three kinds (PGV(BP10), PGV(BP20), and PGV(BP30)) are obtained from a maximal value of vector sum of the three-component, narrow band-pass filtered velocity seismograms (the central periods are 10, 20, and 30 s). The spatial distribution maps for all kinds of PGV value show azimuth dependence; the PGV values in Hokkaido, northern side of the epicenter are larger than those in Tohoku, southwestern side of the epicenter, when compared at a comparable distance. We find that the features result from the radiation pattern of long-period surface waves, that is, the source effect. The attenuation relationships show the following trends: The PGV(WB) values are larger than the sum of the PGV(BP10), PGV(BP20), and PGV(BP30) at distances (D) less than 200 km, while the PGV(WB) values are comparable to the sum of the PGV(BP20) and PGV(BP30) at D > 200 km. This indicates that the PGV(WB) values at D < 200 km are affected by ground motions with periods less than 10 s, while long-period surface waves mainly contribute to the PGV(WB) values at D > 200 km. The basin site effects generate a patchy pattern in the spatial distribution maps and a large scattering in the attenuation relationships for the PGV(WB) and PGV(BP10) values. Finally, we conclude that the PGV(WB) values from the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake are controlled by the radiation pattern of long-period S and surface waves and various basin site effects.     

Rejuvenated extension of the Philippine Sea plate and its effect on subduction dynamics in the Nankai Trough

The Nankai Trough, Japan, is a subduction zone characterized by the recurrence of disastrous earthquakes and tsunamis. Slow earthquakes and associated tremor also occur intermittently and locally in the Nankai Trough and the causal relationship between slow earthquakes and large earthquakes is important to understanding subduction zone dynamics. The Nankai Trough off Muroto, Shikoku Island, near the southeast margin of the rupture segment of the 1946 Nankai earthquake, is one of three regions where slow earthquakes and tremor cluster in the Nankai Trough. On the Philippine Sea plate, the rifting of the central domain of the Shikoku Basin was aborted at ~15 Ma and underthrust the Nankai forearc off Muroto. Here, the Tosa-Bae seamount and other high-relief features, which are northern extension of the Kinan Seamount chain, have collided with and indented the forearc wedge. In this study, we analyzed seismic reflection profiles around the deformation front of accretionary wedge and stratigraphically correlated them to drilling sites off Muroto. Our results show that the previously aborted horst-and-graben structures, which were formed around the spreading center of the Shikoku Basin at ~15 Ma, were rejuvenated locally at ~6 Ma and more regionally at ~3.3 Ma and have remained active since. The reactivated normal faulting has enhanced seafloor roughness and appears to affect the locations of slow earthquakes and tremors. Rejuvenated normal faulting is not limited to areas near the Nankai Trough, and extends more than 200 km into the Shikoku Basin to the south. This extension might be due to extensional forces applied to the Philippine Sea plate, which appear to be driven by slab-pull in the Ryukyu and Philippine trenches along the western margin of the Philippine Sea plate.     

Broadband ground-motion simulation of the 24 May 2014 Gokceada (North Aegean Sea) earthquake (Mw 6.9) in NW Turkey considering local soil effects

On 24 May 2014, a Mw 6.9 earthquake occurred in the west of Gokceada Island, northern Aegean Sea. The earthquake was close to Canakkale, Enez, Tekirdag cities, and damaged 300 buildings in the Marmara Region, NW Turkey. We simulated its broadband (0.1–10 Hz) ground motions including 1D deep and shallow structures soil amplification effects at the 12 strong ground motion stations in the western Marmara Region. The 1D deep velocity structures from the focal layer to the engineering bedrock with an S-wave velocity of 0.78 km/s in different azimuthal directions were tuned by comparing the observed group-velocity dispersion curves of Rayleigh and Love waves from the mainshock with theoretical ones. We also added the shallow parts from previous surveys into the 1D models. Synthetic seismograms on the engineering bedrock were generated using the discrete wave number method with a source model and the 1D deep velocity structures. Then the surface motion was generated considering shallow soil amplification. The synthetic seismograms are generally in good agreement with the observed low and high-frequency parts at most of the stations indicating an appropriateness of the source model and the 1D structural model.     

汶川8.0级地震陕西省数字强震动记录分析

本文对2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震陕西数字强震动台网27个台的地震加速度记录进行了处理和分析,包括对加速度波形数据的基线调整、滤波、加速度反应谱计算,以及速度和位移计算。结果表明：除局部场地条件的影响外,大地震的能量辐射方向和传播路径中介质的横向不均匀对PGAH衰减的离散性可能有一些影响; 对于同一烈度值,PGA/PGV较小,PGA在数值上平均只有PGV的5倍左右,反映了地震动的低频成分比较丰富; 绝大部分强震台所处地区的烈度为Ⅴ—Ⅶ度; PGAH与水平单分向加速度峰值PGA（E-W）和PGA（N-S）中较大值之间的相对偏差绝大部分小于10%; 波形的性质为面波,盆地中覆盖土层较厚的场地长周期的面波更为发育,波列持续时间较长; 局部场地的介质特性对地震动特征有相当大的影响,盆地中较厚的覆盖土层对较长周期的地震波有明显的放大作用。