The Indus flood of 2010 in Pakistan: a perspective analysis using remote sensing data

The Indus flood in 2010 was one of the greatest river disasters in recent history, which affected more than 14 million people in Pakistan. Although excessive rainfall between July and September 2010 has been cited as the major causative factor for this disaster, the human interventions in the river system over the years made this disaster a catastrophe. Geomorphic analysis suggests that the Indus River has had a very dynamic regime in the past. However, the river has now been constrained by embankments on both sides, and several barrages have been constructed along the river. As a result, the river has been aggrading rapidly during the last few decades due to its exceptionally high sediment load particularly in reaches upstream of the barrages. This in turn has caused significant increase in cross-valley gradient leading to breaches upstream of the barrages and inundation of large areas. Our flow accumulation analysis using SRTM data not only supports this interpretation but also points out that there are several reaches along the Indus River, which are still vulnerable to such breaches and flooding. Even though the Indus flood in 2010 was characterized by exceptionally high discharges, our experience in working on Himalayan rivers and similar recent events in rivers in Nepal and India suggest that such events can occur at relatively low discharges. It is therefore of utmost importance to identify such areas and plan mitigation measures as soon as possible. We emphasize the role of geomorphology in flood analysis and management and urge the river managers to take urgent steps to incorporate the geomorphic understanding of Himalayan rivers in river management plans.     

Forecasting flood risk in the Indus River system using hydrological parameters and its damage assessment

Hydrological parameters are among the widely used parameters in assessing flood risk. On the other hand, anticipated flood damages, in case of flooding, are estimated with the help of expected losses in areas nearer to the watercourse. The major source of almost every-year flooding in Pakistan is the Indus River system that comprises the major rivers of Pakistan. We first use observed data to construct simulated data models based on various probability distributions namely normal, lognormal, Weibull, largest extreme value, gamma-3, and log-Pearson type-3 distributions and thereby compute probable maximum flood. Secondly, we perform log-Pearson type-3 analysis with and without historic adjustment on the observed data series of 17 years to forecast floods with return periods T of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. We also categorize the river structures based on the risk of flooding. Lastly, we estimate risk of flood damages in terms of expected losses based on observed data. The present study reveals that the log-Pearson type-3 distribution is relatively better for estimating probable maximum flood. We use exceedence probability to assess the risk of flooding in the various structures of the said rivers. The analysis shows that flood damages in Pakistan may be reduced by increasing the design capacity of the structures and also by giving awareness to people about the flood-generating factors.     

汉江上游晏家棚段全新世古洪水研究

通过对汉江上游详尽的野外考察,在湖北郧县晏家棚河段全新世黄土—古土壤地层中发现3层典型古洪水滞流沉积物。在沉积学的基础上,使用OSL技术断代,确定3期特大洪水事件分别在1 000~900 a BP,1 800~1 600 a BP和3 200~2 800 a BP期间发生。采用"古洪水SWD尖灭点高程法"确定这3期古洪水事件的洪峰水位介于176.20~176.73 m。运用Arc GIS耦合HEC-RAS水力模型,推求这3期古洪水事件的洪峰流量介于53 770~55 950 m3/s,并从多种角度验证了该模型计算结果的科学性和合理性。将此结果与实测洪水和历史洪水资料接续,构成万年尺度洪水水文数据序列,得到汉江上游晏家棚河段万年一遇和千年一遇洪水的流量分别为59 100和45 200m3/s。采用HEC-RAS模型对研究河段进行古洪水模拟,方法科学,结果可靠。将该河段洪水水文数据序列有效地延长到万年尺度,极大地提高了设计洪水的可靠性。     

渭河宝鸡峡全新世特大洪水水文学研究

通过深入的考察,在渭河宝鸡峡河段发现典型的全新世古洪水滞流沉积地层剖面,并进行了古洪水沉积学和水文学研究。对于采集的序列样品,进行粒度成分、磁化率、烧失量、CaCO₃含量等分析,从沉积学角度证明了剖面上覆盖在古土壤S₀顶部的沉积物为典型的古洪水滞流沉积层。根据其地层结构及其与流域内其他剖面的对比,结合其所含古文化层考古学年代和OSL断代数据等,确定渭河上游在3200～3000aB.P.发生了3次特大洪水事件。利用古水文学原理恢复其水位,并且利用水位-流量关系模型,计算出古洪水洪峰流量为22560～25960m³/s。 这个结果大大延长了洪水水文数据序列,从而能够建立渭河万年尺度洪水流量-频率关系,对于防洪减灾、水能源和水资源开发具有重要的应用价值。该成果揭示出万年尺度大暴雨洪水与气候变化的关系,丰富了全球变化的区域响应理论。     

Geo-spatial assessment of community vulnerability to flood along the Ravi River,Ravi Town,Lahore, Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Pakistan is exposed to hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Flood is one of the hydro-meteorological hazards, and so far 25 major floods have occurred in Indus River...     

梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式

利用Copula函数建立各分区洪水的联合分布,基于联合概率密度最大原则,推导得到最可能地区组成法的计算通式,并用来推求梯级水库下游断面的设计洪水。选择清江流域水布垭-隔河岩-高坝洲梯级水库为例,开展了验证和方法比较研究。结果表明:最可能地区组成法计算得到的设计洪水值位于同频率地区组成法多方案计算结果的区间之内;受清江梯级水库调洪的影响,宜都断面设计洪水的削峰率十分显著,最可能地区组成法推求100年一遇设计洪水的削峰率达到30.2%。该法具有较强的统计基础,组成方案唯一,结果合理可行,为复杂梯级水库设计洪水的计算提供了一种新途径。     

Morphotectonic analysis of the Hazara arc region of the Himalayas, north Pakistan and northwest India

In the Hazara arc region of northern Pakistan, some of the active basements structures buried below a thick, detached sedimentary layer are inferred from the distribution of lineaments and the drainage patterns, as viewed in Landsat satellite imagery and from river profiles.A prominent set of NW-trending lineaments seen on satellite imagery, coincides approximately with the southwest or updip side of the Indus—Kohistan seismic zone (IKSZ) —the most active basement structure of the region, even though this structure is buried beneath and decoupled from a 12 km thick sedimentary layer. The IKSZ has been interpreted as an extension of the Himalayan Basement Thrust, and is also associated with a prominent topographic “step”.Knickpoints on major rivers in the region lie on or north of the IKSZ. All Indus River tributaries, examined north of the IKSZ, show prominent knickpoints, while two tributaries draining south of the IKSZ have no knickpoints. These results suggest ongoing uplift above and north of the IKSZ, and are consistent with the tectonic model obtained from the seismic data.Another prominent lineament set is detected along the north—south section of the Indus River. This set is probably related to the Indus River horst—anticline and associated reentrant.One of the two highest lineament concentrations occurs at the intersection between the NW-trending IKSZ lineament and the N-trending Indus River lineament. The other is along the west bank of the Indus Valley, 25 km north of Tarbela Dam.A topographic ridge (Swabi—Nowshera ridge) appears to be forming along the west side of the Indus River, in the Peshawar Basin. The rising ridge is ponding the Kabul River upstream of Nowshera, where the drainage is braided.     

Snowmelt runoff prediction under changing climate in the Himalayan cryosphere: A case of Gilgit River Basin

There are serious concerns of rise in temperatures over snowy and glacierized Himalayan region that may eventually affect future river flows of Indus river system. It is therefore necessary to predict snow and glacier melt runoff to manage future water resource of Upper Indus Basin(UIB). The snowmelt runoff model(SRM) coupled with MODIS remote sensing data was employed in this study to predict daily discharges of Gilgit River in the Karakoram Range. The SRM was calibrated successfully and then simulation was made over four years i.e. 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 achieving coefficient of model efficiency of 0.96, 0.86, 0.9 and 0.94 respectively. The scenarios of precipitation and mean temperature developed from regional climate model PRECIS were used in SRM model to predict future flows of Gilgit River. The increase of 3 C in mean annual temperature by the end of 21 th century may result in increase of 35-40% in Gilgit River flows. The expected increase in the surface runoff from the snow and glacier melt demands better water conservation and management for irrigation and hydel-power generation in the Indus basin in future.     

陆气耦合模型在实时暴雨洪水预报中的应用

采用加拿大区域性中尺度大气模式MC2(Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community)和新安江模型单向耦合模型系统,对2005年7月4～15日发生在淮河流域的一场暴雨洪水,进行了实时预报.采用王家坝以上流域的实测降水和王家坝断面的实测洪水资料,对MC2预报降水的时空分布和陆气耦合模型预报的洪水过程进行了分析.结果表明,MC2对该场强降水过程具有很好的预报能力,陆气耦合模型有效地增长了洪水预报的预见期,具有很好的应用前景.     

Consequences of dike breaches and dike overflow in a bifurcating river system

Currently, the effect of dike breaches on downstream discharge partitioning and flood risk is not addressed in flood safety assessments. In a bifurcating river system, a dike breach may cause overland flows which can change downstream flood risk and discharge partitioning. This study examines how dike breaches and overflow affect overland flow patterns and discharges of the rivers of the Rhine delta. For extreme discharges, an increase in flood risk along the river branch with the smallest discharge capacity was found, while flood risk along the other river branches was reduced. Therefore, dike breaches and resulting overland flow patterns must be included in flood safety assessments.

     

Flashfloods, earthquakes and uplift in the Pakistan Himalayas

Catastrophic flooding of parts of the frontal plains of the Pakistan Himalayas has occured throughout the historical past. The largest recorded flood (1841) originated from an earthquaketriggered landslip from the flanks of Nanga Parbat, which blocked the Indus river for six months. The earthquake probably occurred on the Liachar thrust, which has been responsible for uplifting the amphibolite facies Nanga Parbat gneisses to the Earth's surface in the last 10 million years. These movements raise serious problems for hydroelectric engineering project in this and other active mountain belts.     

Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010

Pakistan has experienced severe floods over the past decades due to climate variability. Among all the floods, the flood of 2010 was the worst in history. This study focuses on the assessment of (1) riverine flooding in the district Jhang (where Jhelum and Chenab rivers join, and the district was severely flood affected) and (2) south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns and anomalies considering the case of 2010 flood in Pakistan. The land use/cover change has been analyzed by using Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite imageries for supervised classification, and three instances have been compared, i.e., pre-flooding, flooding, and post-flooding. The water flow accumulation, drainage density and pattern, and river catchment areas have been calculated by using Shutter Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model 90 m resolution. The standard deviation of south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns, anomalies and normal (1979–2008) has been calculated for July, August, and September by using rainfall data set of Era interim (0.75° × 0.75° resolution). El Niño Southern Oscillation has also been considered for its role in prevailing rainfall anomalies during the year 2010 over Upper Indus Basin region. Results show the considerable changing of land cover during the three instances in the Jhang district and water content in the rivers. Abnormal rainfall patterns over Upper Indus Basin region prevailed during summer monsoon months in the year 2010 and 2011. The El Niño (2009–2010) and its rapid phase transition to La Niña (2011–2012) may be the cause of severity and disturbances in rainfall patterns during the year 2010. The Geographical Information System techniques and model based simulated climate data sets have been used in this study which can be helpful in developing a monitoring tool for flood management.     

网状河流的构型、流量-宽深比关系和能耗率

网状河流作为一类新河型,已经受到研究者的关注,但对其研究还不充分.该研究基于目前已经报道过的资料及新近取得的研究成果,从河流构型、河道过水断面宽深比与流量关系及能耗率等方面对该河型展开论述,期望引起大家对该河型的兴趣.网状河流在许多方面表现出了独有的特色.从平面构型来看,它以相互连通的多河道围绕非常稳定的泛滥盆地为特征,其中泛滥盆地上植被发育、沼泽湖泊可见.从河道纵、横剖面来看,它具有非常小的河道比降和一般小于40的河道宽深比,总体上属于各类河型中最小的.从沉积体系的剖面构型来看,它以多个孤立的河道砂体"漂浮"在细粒泥质沉积物中为特征.在河道过水断面宽深比与流量的半对数图中可见,其宽深比随流量的增大而减小,并且其散点位于各类河流的最下部.由于其河道比降一般很小,多河道体系中的单个河道的流量相对于其决口前的老河道显然较小,从而其能耗率就相对很小.文中所讨论到的长江三口分流网状河道:东松滋河、西松滋河、虎渡河、藕池河、北藕池河和松澧合流,其能耗率分别为3.0 W/m2,5.5 W/m2,2.8 W/m2,6.4 W/m2,3.7 W/m2和2.7 W/m2,显然都小于10 W/m2,这与长江主河道在枝江附近的140 W/m2相比,差两个数量级.所有这些特征都预示着网状河流与以长江中下游为代表的分汊河流之间有着完全不同的特性,与其他河型更是大相径庭.     

Assessment of characteristics and distinguished hydrological periods of a river regime

This study was carried out to analyze the hydrological characteristics and assess the distinguished hydrological periods of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Rivers of Pakistan. For this purpose, statistical analysis (variation coefficient, the auto-correlation coefficient, sequential Mann–Kendall’s test) and a proposed method for distinguishing hydrological periods (described in methodology section) were applied. The results revealed that all rivers reflect moderate variability. The results of auto-correlation displayed that the river flow observed at Astore gauging station only indicated independency, while for Gilgit, Hunza and Kachura guaging at Indus River exhibited 2, 2, 4-year lag. The mutation analysis indicated that after 1980, the change point occurred at all UIB rivers. During analysis, it was also observed that river regimes have the same hydrological periods (i.e., 4), but with different dates of occurrence. The Gilgit River showed a low high-flow hydrological period compared to Astore, Hunza and Kachora (Indus). This difference may be due to the river’s own area natural conditions. The current analysis may be helpful for planning and management of water resources, designing of hydraulic structures and to make better policies in response to agricultural water requirement downstream of UIB River.     

Evaluating typical flood risks in Yangtze River Economic Belt: application of a flood risk mapping framework

The Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the three national strategies of China, while flood risk is one of the most important concerns in the development of Yangtze River Economic Belt. In order to decrease the risks caused by floods, complete flood management system and adequate pre-arranged planning are desiderated to be researched in advance. This study considers two typical situations of flood risk, in which one is sluice-control situation in flood detention area and another is dike-break situation in flood-protected area, and proposes a framework for flood risk mapping. The results show that the losses caused by flood hazards are massive both in the two typical cases when extreme floods happen. The economic losses of different indicators are of great difference in flood detention area and flood-protected area, respectively. The framework effectively handles the complex boundaries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and provides more accurate flood routing information. The evacuation plan module which has been incorporated in the framework also provides informative assistance for emergent action of evacuation under urgent condition.     

GIS支持下的小流域设计洪水过程线推求

浙江省衢州庙源溪为典型的山区河流,庙源溪雨量丰富,河流比降大,源短流急,洪水陡涨陡落,汇流速度快,洪峰流量大。基于GIS的不规则三角网和空间分析功能,实现水文特征值等值线的内插。根据GIS获取的水文特征值,计算不同历时平均点雨量,考虑点面折算系数,得到平均面雨量。通过频率分析,获得不同频率下的设计雨量。采用瞬时单位线法,进行汇流计算,推求设计洪水过程线及洪峰流量,为制作山洪风险图,建立小流域防洪避洪保障体系提供依据。     

近50 a来新疆区域与天山典型流域极端洪水变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

以年极端洪水超标率来反映区域极端洪水, 分析了新疆区域极端洪水变化; 以年最大洪峰记录分析了天山山区主要河流极端洪水变化规律, 并用14站资料分析了天山山区气候变化特征, 讨论了天山主要河流极端洪水变化对区域气候变化的响应. 结果表明: 受气候变暖影响, 1957-2006年全疆极端洪水呈区域性加重趋势, 尤其南疆区域极端洪水明显加剧, 北疆区域也有加重趋势, 但相对较缓. 全疆及北疆、 南疆在20世纪90年代中期以来都处于洪水高发阶段. 近50 a来, 在新疆区域洪水呈加重趋势的变化背景下, 发源于天山南坡的托什干河和库玛拉克河年最大洪峰流量呈显著增加趋势, 发源于天山北坡的玛纳斯河与乌鲁木齐河年最大洪峰流量虽有增加, 但是变化趋势较缓. 以年最大洪峰流量发生转折年为界, 天山典型流域托什干河、 库玛拉克河、 玛纳斯河和乌鲁木齐河在20世纪90年代(或80年代)以来与前期相比, 呈现出相似的变化特征: 年最大洪峰流量明显增大, 年际间变化更加剧烈, 洪水年更频繁. 以年最大洪峰流量发生转折年份为界, 玛纳斯河、 托什干河和乌鲁木齐河后期的年最大洪峰集中日期较前期推迟2~9 d, 库玛拉克河却提前5 d. 玛纳斯河、 乌鲁木齐河和库玛拉克河后期的集中度较前期增加0.8%~8.3%, 托什干河减小1.1%. 1961-2010年, 新疆天山山区气温明显上升, 升温率为0.34 ℃·(10a)^-1, 1997年以后明显增暖; 天山山区降水显著增加, 增加速率15.6 mm·(10a)^-1, 同时极端降水强度增大、 频数增多. 近50 a来天山主要河流极端洪水变化与区域增温以及天山山区极端降水事件增多等有密切关系.     

淮河干流洪水预报系统及其在1991年大洪水的应用

综述了淮河流域概况，淮河干流洪水预报系统物采用的预报方法。１９９１年淮河干流洪水预报采用了降雨径流预报与上，下游站相应流量预防方法相配合，并注重实时水情分析；在行洪区多，行洪后水面宽广而比降又极小的河段的汇流计算，采用了以实测洪水资料绘制的经验蓄曲线为充分发挥的湖泊洪水演算方法。     

Mesozoic deltaic system along the western margin of the Indian plate: lithofacies and depositional setting of Datta Formation,North Pakistan

Over 1 km thick Mesozoic sedimentary sequence is exposed over a wide area in the Upper Indus basin of north Pakistan along the western margin of the Indian Plate. The Mesozoic sequence is comprised of clastic facies in the lower part, while carbonate facies are dominant in the upper part. About 200 m thick mixed sequence of interbedded sandstone, siltstone, clay, and carbonaceous shale represents the lower Jurassic Datta Formation in the Salt and Trans Indus Ranges in North Pakistan. The Datta Formation constitutes important reservoir horizons in a number of oil fields in the western Himalayan foreland basins where it is encountered at a depth of about 4 km in various wells. The Datta Formation is described from different parts of the range front to understand the internal architecture of various sedimentary facies and their depositional system. The thickness and lithofacies assemblages of the Datta Formation change in different parts of the range front as well as in subsurface of the Upper Indus basin. The Datta Formation represents a coarsening upward deltaic sequence in most parts of the basin. On the basis of lithological variations and sedimentary structures, a number of depositional facies have been recognized which include channel belt facies, floodplain/abandoned channel facies, swamp facies, and lagoonal facies. Further north, in the Kalachitta and Hazara regions, the siliciclastic facies change to more complex assemblages of interbedded bauxite, silcrete, marl, and some limestone. These sediments represent deposition in a delta-plain setting of a fluvial-dominated delta with northwestward flowing channels.