The Rotation Rates of Solar Magnetic Fields During Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Employing the synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic fields from the beginning of solar cycle 21 to the end of 23, we first build up a time – longitude stackplot at each latitude between ±35°. On each stackplot there are many tilted magnetic structures clearly reflecting the rotation rates, and we adopt a cross-correlation technique to explore the rotation rates from these tilted structures. Our new method avoids artificially choosing magnetic tracers, and it is convenient for investigating the rotation rates of the positive and negative fields by omitting one kind of field on the stackplots. We have obtained the following results. i) The rotation rates of the positive and negative fields (or the leader and follower polarities, depending on the hemispheres and solar cycles) between latitudes ±35° during solar cycles 21–23 are derived. The reversal times of the leader and follower polarities are usually not consistent with the years of the solar minimum, nevertheless, at latitudes ±16°, the reversal times are almost simultaneous with them. ii) The rotation rates of the three solar cycles averaged over each cycle are calculated separately for the positive, negative and total fields. The latitude profiles of rotation of the positive and negative fields exhibit equatorial symmetries with each other, and those of the total fields lie between them. iii) The differences in rotation rates between the leader and follower polarities are obtained. They are very small near the equator, and increase as latitude increases. In the latitude range of 5° – 20°, these differences reach 0.05 deg day⁻¹, and the mean difference for solar cycle 22 is somewhat smaller than cycles 21 and 23 in these latitude regions. Then, the differences reduce again at latitudes higher than 20°.     

Gnevyshev Peaks and Gaps for Coronal Mass Ejections of Different Widths Originating in Different Solar Position Angles

The sunspot number series at the peak of sunspot activity often has two or three peaks (Gnevyshev peaks; Gnevyshev, Solar Phys. 1, 107, 1967; Solar Phys. 51, 175, 1977). The sunspot group number (SGN) data were examined for 1997 – 2003 (part of cycle 23) and compared with data for coronal mass ejection (CME) events. It was noticed that they exhibited mostly two Gnevyshev peaks in each of the four latitude belts 0° – 10°, 10° – 20°, 20 ° – 30°, and > 30°, in both N (northern) and S (southern) solar hemispheres. The SGN were confined to within latitudes ± 50° around the Equator, mostly around ± 35°, and seemed to occur later in lower latitudes, indicating possible latitudinal migration as in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In CMEs, less energetic CMEs (of widths < 71°) showed prominent Gnevyshev peaks during sunspot maximum years in almost all latitude belts, including near the poles. The CME activity lasted longer than the SGN activity. However, the CME peaks did not match the SGN peaks and were almost simultaneous at different latitudes, indicating no latitudinal migration. In energetic CMEs including halo CMEs, the Gnevyshev peaks were obscure and ill-defined. The solar polar magnetic fields show polarity reversal during sunspot maximum years, first at the North Pole and, a few months later, at the South Pole. However, the CME peaks and gaps did not match with the magnetic field reversal times, preceding them by several months, rendering any cause – effect relationship doubtful.     

The Temperature of the Low Corona During Solar Cycles 21–23

Observations of the forbidden coronal lines Fe xiv 530.3 nm and Fe x 637.4 nm obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak are used to determine the variation of coronal temperature at latitudes above 30^∘ during solar activity cycles 21–23. Features of the long-term variation of emission in the two lines are also discussed. Temperatures at latitudes below 30^∘ are not studied because the technique used to determine the coronal temperature is not applicable in active regions. The polar temperature varies cyclically from approximately 1.3 to 1.7 MK. The temperatures are similar in both hemispheres. The temperature near solar minimum decreases strongly from mid-latitudes to the poles. The temperature of the corona above 80^∘ latitude generally follows the sunspot cycle, with minima in 1985 and 1995–1996 (cf. 1986 and 1996 for the smoothed sunspot number, Rz) and maxima in 1989 and 2000 (cf. 1989 and 2000 for Rz). The temperature of the corona above 30^∘ latitude at solar maximum is nearly uniform, i.e., there is little latitude dependence. If the maximum temperatures of cycles 22 and 23 are aligned in time (superposed epochs), the average annual N + S temperature (average of the northern and southern hemisphere) in cycle 23 is hotter than that in cycle 22 at all times both above 80^∘ latitude and above 30^∘ latitude. The difference in the average annual N + S maximum temperature between cycles 23 and 22 was 56 kK near the poles and 64 kK for all latitudes above 30^∘. Cycle 23 was also hotter at mid-latitudes than cycle 22 by 60 kK. The last 3 years of cycle 21 were hotter than the last 3 years of cycle 22. The difference in average annual N + S temperatures at the end of cycles 21 and 22 was 32 kK near the poles and 23 kK for all latitudes above 30^∘. Cycle 21 was also hotter at mid-latitudes than cycle 22 by at least 90 kK. Thus, there does not seem to be a solar-cycle trend in the low-coronal temperature outside of active regions.     

The Global Solar Magnetic Field Through a Full Sunspot Cycle: Observations and Model Results

Based on 11 years of SOHO/MDI observations from the cycle minimum in 1997 to the next minimum around 2008, we compare observed and modeled axial dipole moments to better understand the large-scale transport properties of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere. The absolute value of the axial dipole moment in 2008 is less than half that in the corresponding cycle-minimum phase in early 1997, both as measured from synoptic maps and as computed from an assimilation model based only on magnetogram data equatorward of 60° in latitude. This is incompatible with the statistical fluctuations expected from flux-dispersal modeling developed in earlier work at the level of 7 – 10 σ. We show how this decreased axial dipole moment can result from an increased strength of the diverging meridional flow near the Equator, which more effectively separates the two hemispheres for dispersing magnetic flux. Based on the combination of this work with earlier long-term simulations of the solar surface field, we conclude that the flux-transport properties across the solar surface have changed from preceding cycles to the most recent one. A plausible candidate for such a change is an increase of the gradient of the meridional-flow pattern near the Equator so that the two hemispheres are more effectively separated. The required profile as a function of latitude is consistent with helioseismic and cross-correlation measurements made over the past decade.     

Similarities and Dissimilarities between the Variations of CME and Other Solar Parameters at Different Heliographic Latitudes and Time Scales

From the LASCO CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) catalog, the occurrence frequencies of all CMEs (all strong and weak CMEs, irrespective of their widths) were calculated for 3-month intervals and their 12-month running means determined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2007) and were compared with those of other solar parameters. The annual values of all-CME frequency were very well correlated (+ 0.97) with sunspot numbers, but several other parameters also had similarly high correlations. Comparisons of 12-month running means indicated that the sunspot numbers were very well correlated with solar electromagnetic radiations (Lyman-α, 2800-MHz flux, coronal green line index, solar flare indices, and X-ray background); but for corpuscular radiations [proton fluxes, solar energetic particles (SEP), CMEs, interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), and stream interaction regions (SIR)] and solar open magnetic fields, the correlations were lower. A notable feature was the appearance of two peaks during 2000 – 2002, and those double peaks in different parameters matched approximately except for proton fluxes and SEP and SIR frequencies. When hemispheric intensities were considered, north – south asymmetries appeared, more in some parameters than in others. When intensities in smaller latitude belts (10°) were compared, sunspot group numbers (SGN) were found to be confined mostly to latitudes within ± 30° of the solar equator, showing two peaks in all latitude belts, and during the course of the 11-year cycle, the double peaks shifted from middle to equatorial solar latitudes, just as seen in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In contrast, CME frequency was comparable at all latitude belts (including high, near-polar latitudes), having more than two peaks in almost all latitude belts, and the peaks were almost simultaneous in all latitude belts. Thus, the matching of SGN peaks with those of CME peaks was poor. Incidentally, the CME frequency data for all events (all widths) after 2003 are not comparable to earlier data, owing to inclusion of very weak (narrow) CMEs in later years. The frequencies are comparable with earlier data only for widths exceeding about 70°.     

Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North – South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle 24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874 – 2006, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the Sun’s northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of −1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112±13 and 74±10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that the north – south asymmetries in the aforementioned area sums have a strong ≈44-year periodicity and from this we can infer that the upcoming cycle 24 will be weaker than cycle 23. In case of (1), the north – south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103±10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north – south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87±7 for the amplitude of cycle 24, which is about 28% less than the amplitude of cycle 23. Our results also indicate that cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24. The variations in the mean meridional motions of the spot groups during odd and even numbered cycles suggest that the solar meridional flows may transport magnetic flux across the solar equator and potentially responsible for all the above relationships. The author did a major part of this work at the Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, 430 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1547, USA.     

Solar Polar Fields During Cycles 21 – 23: Correlation with Meridional Flows

We have examined polar magnetic fields for the last three solar cycles, viz. Cycles 21, 22, and 23 using NSO/Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms. In addition, we have used SOHO/MDI magnetograms to derive the polar fields during Cycle 23. Both Kitt Peak and MDI data at high latitudes (78° – 90°) in both solar hemispheres show a significant drop in the absolute value of polar fields from the late declining phase of the Solar Cycle 22 to the maximum of the Solar Cycle 23. We find that long-term changes in the absolute value of the polar field, in Cycle 23, are well correlated with changes in meridional-flow speeds that have been reported recently. We discuss the implication of this in influencing the extremely prolonged minimum experienced at the start of the current Cycle 24 and in forecasting the behavior of future solar cycles.     

The Observed Long- and Short-Term Phase Relation between the Toroidal and Poloidal Magnetic Fields in Cycle 23

The observed phase relations between the weak background solar magnetic (poloidal) field and strong magnetic field associated with sunspots (toroidal field) measured at different latitudes are presented. For measurements of the solar magnetic field (SMF) the low-resolution images obtained from Wilcox Solar Observatory are used and the sunspot magnetic field was taken from the Solar Feature Catalogues utilizing the SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms. The quasi-3D latitudinal distributions of sunspot areas and magnetic fields obtained for 30 latitudinal bands (15 in the northern hemisphere and 15 in the southern hemisphere) within fixed longitudinal strips are correlated with those of the background SMF. The sunspot areas in all latitudinal zones (averaged with a sliding one-year filter) reveal a strong positive correlation with the absolute SMF in the same zone appearing first with a zero time lag and repeating with a two- to three-year lag through the whole period of observations. The residuals of the sunspot areas averaged over one year and those over four years are also shown to have a well defined periodic structure visible in every two – three years close to one-quarter cycle with the maxima occurring at − 40° and + 40° and drifts during this period either toward the equator or the poles depending on the latitude of sunspot occurrence. This phase relation between poloidal and toroidal field throughout the whole cycle is discussed in association with both the symmetric and asymmetric components of the background SMF and relevant predictions by the solar dynamo models.     

Solar Cycle Predictions based on Solar Activity at Different Solar Latitudes

Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R _z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) with R _z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R _z(max )=129.7±16.3.     

Long-Term Variations in the Growth and Decay Rates of Sunspot Groups

Using the combined Greenwich (1874 – 1976) and Solar Optical Observatories Network (1977 – 2009) data on sunspot groups, we study the long-term variations in the mean daily rates of growth and decay of sunspot groups. We find that the minimum and the maximum values of the annually averaged daily mean growth rates are ≈ 52% day⁻¹ and ≈ 183% day⁻¹, respectively, whereas the corresponding values of the annually averaged daily mean decay rates are ≈ 21% day⁻¹ and ≈ 44% day⁻¹, respectively. The average value (over the period 1874 – 2009) of the growth rate is about 70% more than that of the decay rate. The growth and the decay rates vary by about 35% and 13%, respectively, on a 60-year time scale. From the beginning of Cycle 23 the growth rate is substantially decreased and near the end (2007 – 2008) the growth rate is lowest in the past about 100 years. In the extended part of the declining phase of this cycle, the decay rate steeply increased and it is largest in the beginning of the current Cycle 24. These unusual properties of the growth and the decay rates during Cycle 23 may be related to cause of the very long declining phase of this cycle with the unusually deep and prolonged current minimum. A ≈ 11-year periodicity in the growth and the decay rates is found to be highly latitude and time dependent and seems to exist mainly in the 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere. The strength of the known approximate 33 – 44-year modulation in the solar activity seems to be related to the north-south asymmetry in the growth rate. Decreasing and increasing trends in the growth and the decay rates indicate that the next 2 – 3 solar cycles will be relatively weak.     

Asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features over solar cycles 20–23

This paper presents the study of normalized north–south asymmetry, cumulative normalized north–south asymmetry and cumulative difference indices of sunspot areas, solar active prominences (at total, low (?40°) and high (?50°) latitudes) and Hα solar flares from 1964 to 2008 spanning the solar cycles 20–23. Three different statistical methods are used to obtain the asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features. Hemispherical distribution of activity features shows the dominance of activities in northern hemisphere for solar cycle 20 and in southern hemisphere for solar cycles 21–23 excluding solar active prominences at high latitudes. Cumulative difference index of solar activity features in each solar cycle is observed at the maximum of the respective solar cycle suggesting a cyclic behavior of approximately one solar cycle length. Asymmetric behavior of all activity features except solar active prominences at high latitudes hints at the long term periodic trend of eight solar cycles. North–south asymmetries of SAP (H) express the specific behavior of solar activity at high solar latitudes and its behavior in long-time scale is distinctly opposite to those of other activity features. Our results show that in most cases the asymmetry is statistically highly significant meaning thereby that the asymmetries are real features in the N–S distribution of solar activity features.     

Study of Distribution and Asymmetry of Solar Active Prominences during Solar Cycle 23

In this article we present the results of a study of the spatial distribution and asymmetry of solar active prominences (SAP) for the period 1996 through 2007 (solar cycle 23). For more meaningful statistical analysis we analyzed the distribution and asymmetry of SAP in two subdivisions viz. Group1 (ADF, APR, DSF, CRN, CAP) and Group2 (AFS, ASR, BSD, BSL, DSD, SPY, LPS). The North – South (N – S) latitudinal distribution shows that the SAP events are most prolific in the 21° to 30° slice in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres; the East – West (E – W) longitudinal distribution study shows that the SAP events are most prolific (best observable) in the 81° to 90° slice in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres. It was found that the SAP activity during this cycle is low compared to previous solar cycles. The present study indicates that during the rising phase of the cycle the number of SAP events are roughly equal in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. However, activity in the Southern Hemisphere has been dominant since 1999. Our statistical study shows that the N – S asymmetry is more significant then the E – W asymmetry.     

Sunspot Group Decay

We examine daily records of sunspot group areas (measured in millionths of a solar hemisphere or μHem) for the last 130 years to determine the rate of decay of sunspot group areas. We exclude observations of groups when they are more than 60° in longitude from the central meridian and only include data when at least three days of observations are available following the date of maximum area for a group’s disk passage. This leaves data for over 18 000 measurements of sunspot group decay. We find that the decay rate increases linearly from 28 μHem day⁻¹ to about 140 μHem day⁻¹ for groups with areas increasing from 35 μHem to 1000 μHem. The decay rate tends to level off for groups with areas larger than 1000 μHem. This behavior is very similar to the increase in the number of sunspots per group as the area of the group increases. Calculating the decay rate per individual sunspot gives a decay rate of about 3.65 μHem day⁻¹ with little dependence upon the area of the group. This suggests that sunspots decay by a Fickian diffusion process with a diffusion coefficient of about 10 km² s⁻¹. Although the 18 000 decay rate measurements are lognormally distributed, this can be attributed to the lognormal distribution of sunspot group areas and the linear relationship between area and decay rate for the vast majority of groups. We find weak evidence for variations in decay rates from one solar cycle to another and for different phases of each sunspot cycle. However, the strongest evidence for variations is with latitude and the variations with cycle and phase of each cycle can be attributed to this variation. High latitude spots tend to decay faster than low latitude spots.     

Cyclical behavior of solar filaments

The Carte Synoptique catalogue of solar filaments from 1919 March to 1957 July, corresponding to complete cycles 16‐18, is utilized to show the latitudinal migrations of solar filaments at low (≤50°) and high (>50°) latitudes and the latitudinal distributions of solar filaments for all solar filaments, solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are less than or equal to 70° and solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are larger than 70°. The results show the following. (1) The latitudinal migrations of all low‐latitude solar filaments and low‐latitude solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are less than or equal to 70° follow the Spörer sunspot law. However, the latitudinal migration of low‐latitude solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are larger than 70° do not follow the Spörer sunspot law: there is no equatorward and no poleward drift. The latitudinal migration of high‐latitude solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are larger than 70° is more significant than those of all high‐latitude solar filaments and high‐latitude solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are less than or equal to 70°: there is a poleward migration from the latitude of about 50° to 70° and an equatorward migration from the latitude of about 70° to 50° of all high‐latitude solar filaments and high‐latitude solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are less than or equal to 70° and there is a poleward migration from the latitude of about 50° to 80° and an equatorward migration from the latitude of about 80° to 50° of high‐latitude solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are larger than 70°. (2) The statistical characteristics of latitudinal distribution of solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are larger than 70° is different from those of all solar filaments and solar filaments whose maximum lengths during solar disk passage are less than or equal to 70° (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using Geomagnetic Precursors: Validation and Update

In the previous study (Dabas et al. in Solar Phys. 250, 171, 2008), to predict the maximum sunspot number of the current solar cycle 24 based on the geomagnetic activity of the preceding sunspot minimum, the Ap index was used which is available from the last six to seven solar cycles. Since a longer series of the aa index is available for more than the last 10 – 12 cycles, the present study utilizes aa to validate the earlier prediction. Based on the same methodology, the disturbance index (DI), which is the 12-month moving average of the number of disturbed days (aa≥50), is computed at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1,2,…,13; each of them in six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle. Then its correlation with the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle is evaluated. As in the case of Ap, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum, gives the best correlation (R=0.96) with a minimum standard error of estimation (SEE) of ± 9. As applied to cycle 24, the aa index as precursor yields the maximum sunspot number of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is within the 90% prediction interval of the earlier prediction (124±23 using Ap). Furthermore, the same method is applied to an expanded range of cycles 11 – 23, and once again variate block 9 gives the best correlation (R=0.95) with a minimum SEE of ± 13. The relation yields the modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 131±20, which is also close to our earlier prediction and is likely to occur at about 43±4 months after its minimum (December 2008), probably in July 2012 (± 4 months).     

Spectroscopic Observation of Oscillations in the Corona During the Total Solar Eclipse of 22 July 2009

We performed high resolution spectroscopy of the solar corona during the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 in two emission lines: the green line at 5303 ? due to Fe xiv and the red line at 6374 ? due to Fe x, simultaneously from Anji (latitude 30°28.1′ N; longitude 119°35.4′ E; elevation 890 m), China. A two-mirror coelostat with 100 cm focal length lens produced a 9.2 mm image of the Sun. The spectrograph using 140 cm focal length lens in Littrow mode and a grating with 600 lines per millimeter blazed at 2 μm provided a dispersion of 30 m? and 43 m? per pixel in the fourth order around the green line and third order around the red line, respectively. Two Peltier cooled 1k × 1k CCD cameras, with a pixel size of 13 μm square and 14-bit readout at 10 MHz operated in frame transfer mode, were used to obtain the time sequence spectra in two emission lines simultaneously. The duration of totality was 341 s, but we could get spectra for 270 s after a trial exposure at an interval of 5 s. We report here on the detection of intensity, velocity, and line width oscillations with periodicity in the range of 25 – 50 s. These oscillations can be interpreted in terms of the presence of fast magnetoacoustic waves or torsional Alfvén waves. The intensity ratios of green to red emission lines indicate the temperature of the corona to be 1.65 MK in the equatorial region and 1.40 MK in the polar region, relatively higher than the expected temperature during the low activity period. The width variation of the emission lines in different coronal structures suggests different physical conditions in different structures.     

A Preliminary Estimate of the Size of the Coming Solar Cycle 24, based on Ohl’s Precursor Method

For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles. However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min ) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min ) versus Rz(max )], using data for sunspot cycles 9 – 18 to predict the Rz(max ) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 – 19 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 – 23 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 – 2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted Rz(max ) for cycle 24 is 142±24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124±26.) This result of the precursor method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 – 200), so that whatever may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23.     

Differential Rotation of Strong Magnetic Flux During Solar Cycles 21 – 23

In the present investigation we measure the differential rotation of strong magnetic flux during solar cycles 21 – 23 with the method of wavelet transforms. We find that the cycle-averaged synodic rotation rate of strong magnetic flux can be written as ω=13.47−2.58sin ² θ or ω=13.45−2.06sin ² θ−1.37sin ⁴ θ, where θ is the latitude. They agree well with the results derived from sunspots. A north–south asymmetry of the rotation rate is found at high latitudes (28°<θ<40°). The strong flux in the southern hemisphere rotates faster than that in the northern hemisphere by 0.2 deg day⁻¹. The asymmetry continued for cycles 21 – 23 and may be a secular property.     

A Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using a Modified Precursor Method

Based on cycles 17 – 23, linear correlations are obtained between 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days when Ap is greater than or equal to 25, called the Disturbance Index (DI), at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1, 2,… , each of six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle and the maximum amplitude of the following sunspot cycle. In particular, variate block 9, which occurs just prior to subsequent cycle minimum, gives the best correlation (0.94) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ± 13, and hindcasting shows agreement between predicted and observed maximum amplitudes to about 10%. As applied to cycle 24, the modified precursor technique yields maximum amplitude of about 124±23 occurring about 45±4 months after its minimum amplitude occurrence, probably in mid to late 2011.     

A Comparison of the Red and Green Coronal Line Intensities at the 29 March 2006 and the 1 August 2008 Total Solar Eclipses: Considerations of the Temperature of the Solar Corona

During the total solar eclipse at Akademgorodok, Siberia, Russia, on 1 August 2008, we imaged the flash spectrum with a slitless spectrograph. We have spectroscopically determined the duration of totality, the epoch of the second and third contacts and the duration of the flash spectrum. Here we compare the 2008 flash spectra with those that we similarly obtained from the total solar eclipse of 29 March 2006, at Kastellorizo, Greece. Any changes of the intensity of the coronal emission lines, in particularly those of Fe x and Fe xiv, could give us valuable information about the temperature of the corona. The results show that the ionization state of the corona, as manifested especially by the Fe xiv emission line, was much weaker during the 2008 eclipse, indicating that following the long, inactive period during the solar minimum, there was a drop in the overall temperature of the solar corona.