疏勒河上游流域地面坡谱特征

坡谱是以某项坡面因子为自变量,其对应的地面面积为因变量所构成的统计图表或模型。坡谱用微观的地形因子反映宏观的地貌特征的空间分异。以ASTER GDEM V002作为基础数据,利用Arc GIS中数字地形分析工具,提取了疏勒河上游流域的地面坡度、坡向、坡度变率、坡向变率,并分别进行了面积统计,绘制了坡谱曲线。结果显示:研究区以陡坡、斜坡为主,二者占总面积的74.16%,陡坡主要分布在疏勒南山、托来南山,斜坡则主要分布在山脉与盆地的过渡地带。在疏勒河盆地和昌马盆地,坡度变率较小,而坡向变率则较大。疏勒河上游流域地面坡谱反映出研究区地面起伏大,地形破碎。坡度变率、坡向变率对山脊线、疏勒河沟沿线具有重要的指示作用。     

滑坡危险度评价的地形判别法

选取影响滑坡发育的坡度、坡形、坡向、坡体的相对高度和地形与地层产状的组合关系5个主要地形因素，结合三峡库区重点滑坡段(云阳-巫山)205个滑坡统计资料，利用地形判别法，对典型滑坡危险度进行评价。将各地形判别因子在区域滑坡发育上的贡献率作为评价典型滑坡危险度的评价值，利用层次分析法，建立典型滑坡危险度判别矩阵。将判别矩阵的归一化特征向量作为判别因子的权重，得到典型滑坡的危险度。通过建立典型滑坡危险度评价表，对滑坡进行有效的管理。此研究方法有效地避免了对评价因子赋值的主观性，并提出了对不同危险度等级的滑坡管理措施。     

浅论拱溃型顺层岩质滑坡

近年来才开展研究的拱溃型顺层岩质滑坡,是一类独特的滑坡。它的滑动方向总是沿层面顺坡下滑,这属推动式滑坡。滑坡所在的斜坡岩层倾向与斜坡坡向大体一致;坡脚处岩层逐层拱起,并开裂脱层,发展成抗滑段,其与沿岩层层面发育的主滑段相贯通,由此呈现崩溃与滑动。滑坡经历蠕滑→滑动→剧滑三个阶段。     

地形复杂度对坡度坡向的影响

采用三阶不带权差分算法，研究了地形复杂度与坡度坡向的关系，澄清了目前关于坡度坡向误差空间分布的矛盾观点，并分别在凹向椭球和高斯合成曲面数学模型曲面DEM上对其进行验证。通过研究得出：①坡度、坡向误差与坡度值正相关；②坡度坡向误差主要分布在平坦地区；③坡向误差较坡度误差对DEM高程数据误差敏感，较小的DEM误差引起较大的坡向误差。     

基于SINMAP模型的区域滑坡危险性定量评估及模型验证

利用稳定态水文学理论与无限斜坡稳定性模型,构建分布式斜坡稳定性定量评估模型SINMAP,以坡体滑塌十分发育的陕西省略阳县为试验区,利用Grid DEM提取坡度、流向、地形湿度指数和有效汇水面积等流域地形水文数据,将GIS专题图、遥感数据等作为模型输入数据,获得地表斜坡稳定性分级专题图,实现滑坡危险性定量评估;将模型模拟结果与目前国内最具有权威性的中国县(市)地质灾害调查结果进行对比分析,发现两者在稳定性分级标准划分、滑坡点定性评价、滑坡危险性分区等方面都具有很好的相似性和可比性,说明模型的模拟结果能够客观反映研究区地表滑坡危险性,对可能出现的滑坡具有一定的预测精度。因此,该模型的研究有望为定量分析区域滑坡与环境因子的关系、区域滑坡预测等工作奠定基础。     

基于专家知识的滑坡危险性模糊评估方法

滑坡发生的影响因素众多, 其危险性与各因素之间的关系多呈非线性关系, 同时各因素之 间也存在或强或弱的相关性, 而目前的危险性评价方法难以体现这些要求。本文提出了一种借助 滑坡专家知识并利用模糊推理理论进行滑坡危险性评价的方法。该方法通过建立了①坡度与岩 层倾角之差和坡向与岩层倾向之差、②坡度和岩性、③临空面和岩性、④坡形和岩性等四种环境 因子组合, 以此将不同环境因子之间的相关性融入各组合模型中, 并将四种组合所得的模糊危险 度进行叠加用于滑坡危险度的模糊评价。环境组合模型中的参数利用专家经验给出。将该方法应 用于三峡库区云阳- 巫山段, 得到了滑坡危险性的分级分布图。从滑坡危险性分布图上可清楚发 现, 本方法所计算出的危险性值在滑坡发生的地区明显高于未发生滑坡的地区, 该结果可以用于 城镇建设和重要基础规划设施的参考。     

黄土高原地质灾害发生规律

我国每年约有30%地质灾害发生在约占国土面积6%黄土高原地区,灾害数量多、危害严重、机理复杂,然而由于对黄土灾害的发生规律仍然不明晰,长期以来制约了区内大型工程建设、移民搬迁选址等工作。依托1:5万黄土高原区地质灾害调查数据,通过专题要素图件编制和数理统计等手段,重点分析11680处地质灾害,总结了灾害时空分布规律。结果表明,1)在区域地质构造抬升的背景下,黄土高原地形破碎,地貌沟壑纵横,具有滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害多发的特点。2)地质灾害具有明显的时空发生规律,在整个黄土高原区域尺度上,地貌演化与斜坡结构控制地质灾害空间分布和斜坡破坏模式;在流域尺度上,老年期、壮年期、幼年期等沟谷发育期控制着地质灾害变形破坏模式及危害程度;在具体斜坡点上,坡型、坡度、坡高等坡体几何形态控制地质灾害的类型和失稳概率;在时间上,降雨及冻融作用控制年内地质灾害的分布。     

起伏地形下黄河流域太阳直接辐射分布式模拟

基于数字高程模型(DEM)数据和气象站观测资料建立了起伏地形下太阳直接辐射分布式计算模型,模型充分考虑了地形因子(坡向、坡度、地形相互遮蔽)对起伏地形下太阳直接辐射空间分布的影响;以1km×1km分辨率的DEM数据作为地形的综合反映,计算了起伏地形下黄河流域1km×1km分辨率太阳直接辐射的空间分布;深入分析了起伏地形下太阳直接辐射受地理、地形因子影响的变化规律。结果表明:受地形起伏和坡向、坡度等局地地形因子的影响,山区年太阳直接辐射量的空间差异比较明显,向阳山坡(偏南坡)的年直接辐射量明显高于背阴山坡(偏北坡)     

起伏地形下黄河流域太阳直接辐射分布式模式

基于数字高程模型(DEM)数据和气象站观测资料建立了起伏地形下太阳直接辐射分布式计算模型,模型充分考虑了地形因子(坡向、坡度、地形相互遮蔽)对起伏地形下太阳直接辐射空间分布的影响;以1km×1km分辨率的DEM数据作为地形的综合反映,计算了起伏地形下黄河流域1km×1km分辨率太阳直接辐射的空间分布;深入分析了起伏地形下太阳直接辐射受地理、地形因子影响的变化规律.结果表明受地形起伏和坡向、坡度等局地地形因子的影响,山区年太阳直接辐射量的空间差异比较明显,向阳山坡(偏南坡)的年直接辐射量明显高于背阴山坡(偏北坡).     

基于信息量模型的玉树地震次生地质灾害危险性评价

2010-04-14发生在青海省玉树的Ms7.1级地震引发了大量的地质灾害.基于GIS技术和信息量模型方法,以坡度、坡向、高程、坡形、地貌类型、断层距和地层岩性为评价因子,通过空间分析计算各因子的信息量,分析地质灾害在各因子中的空间分布特征,对各评价因子图层进行空间建模,将获取的信息量图划分为高度、中度、轻度三级危险区,通过遥感解译研究区实际滑坡分布,与危险性分布图叠加表明:本次研究得出的危险等级与实际的滑坡发生情况相吻合,为灾区重建提供参考依据.     

Landslide susceptibility analysis with a heuristic approach in the Eastern Alps (Vorarlberg, Austria)

The aim of the study is landslide hazard assessment carried out on a working scale of 1:25 000. The study area within the Northern Calcareous Alps was geologically and geotechnically mapped in order to identify causes and mechanisms of active mass movements. The field surveys were digitised by a Geographical Information System and divided into data layers. The geological units were classified according to their geotechnical properties. All layers were converted into grids and spatially analysed together with a Digital Elevation Model. Comparing the layers with the inventory of active landslides, the prevailing factors leading to sliding movements were identified. Because of the complex tectonic setting and the small number of active landslides, a statistical method of hazard assessment was not applicable. Using the heuristic approach of an index method, the data layers of geotechnical class, bedding conditions, tectonic layouts, slope angles, slope orientations, vegetation and erosion were analysed. The susceptibility of each layer has been evaluated with help of bivariate statistics. The layers have been weighted with indices due to their importance iteratively and were combined into a landslide susceptibility map.     

金龙山地区斜坡滑动优势面分析

据优势面分析原理和方法,对金龙山地区斜坡各种结构面所作的优势面分析结果显示:浅层强风化岩体中顺坡向剪切裂隙,是控制浅层顺层滑坡发生发展的滑动优势面;深层弱风化岩体中粘土岩风化软弱夹层、斜坡上段拉张裂隙与斜坡下段顺坡向剪切裂隙三者相组合,是控制深层顺层滑坡发生的滑动优势面。当地受滑动优势面控制的滑坡变形破坏模式有:浅层为蠕滑—拉裂,深层为滑移—弯曲。     

On the spatial relationship between landslides and causative factors on Lantau Island, Hong Kong

This paper presents a statistical approach to study the spatial relationship between landslides and their causative factors at the regional level. The approach is based on digital databases, and incorporates such methods as statistics, spatial pattern analysis, and interactive mapping. Firstly, the authors propose an object-oriented conceptual model for describing a landslide event, and a combined database of landslides and environmental factors is constructed by integrating the various databases within such a conceptual framework. The statistical histogram, spatial overlay, and dynamic mapping methods are linked together to interactively evaluate the spatial pattern of the relationship between landslides and their causative factors. A case study of an extreme event in 1993 on Lantau Island indicates that rainfall intensity and the migration of the center of the rainstorm greatly influence the occurrence of landslides on Lantau Island. A regional difference in the relationship between landslides and topography is identified. Most of the landslides in the middle and western parts of the island occurred on slopes with slope angles of 25–35°, while in the eastern part, the corresponding range is 30–35°. Overlaying landslide data with land cover reveals that a large number of landslides occurred in the bareland and shrub-covered area, and in the transition zones between different vegetation types. The proposed approach can be used not only to analyze the general characteristics of such a relationship, but also to depict its spatial distribution and variation, thereby providing a sound basis for regional landslide prediction.     

基于随机森林的山西省柳林县黄土滑坡空间敏感性评价

基于随机森林模型,以GF-6影像和ALOS DEM数据为基本信息源,结合高程,地形起伏度及地形湿度等11项因子,对山西省柳林县进行滑坡敏感性空间区划。模型精度评价表明：随机森林模型精度为0.75,支持向量机模型精度为0.7,表明随机森林更适合柳林县的滑坡敏感性评价。指标重要性分析结果表明：高程、坡度、距道路距离以及距河流距离,是影响柳林县滑坡发育的主要因素。敏感性空间区划结果表明：高度敏感区约占柳林县总面积的28%,主要分布在三川河流域的南北边界及邻近区域内,其中贾家垣乡分布面积最广。从时间成本、训练难度、稳定度以及精确度考虑,随机森林模型更适合滑坡敏感性评价这类非线性计算问题。     

GIS支持下三峡库区秭归县滑坡灾害空间预测

基于GIS空间分析和统计模型相结合进行区域评价与空间预测是滑坡灾害研究的重要方向之一。以三峡库区秭归县为研究区,选择坡度、坡向、边坡结构、工程岩组、排水系统、土地利用和公路开挖作为评价因子。为提高模型的预测精度、可信度和推广能力,利用窗口采样规则降低训练样本之间的空间相关性。建立Logistic回归模型,对滑坡灾害与评价因子进行定量相关性分析。计算研究区滑坡灾害易发性指数,对其进行聚类分析,绘制滑坡易发性分区图,其中高、中易发区占整个研究区面积的38.9%,主要分布在人类工程活动频繁和靠近排水系统的区域。经过验证,该模型的预测精度达到77.57%。     

Predictive modelling of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal based on weights-of-evidence

Landslide hazard mapping is a fundamental tool for disaster management activities in mountainous terrains. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive power of weights-of-evidence modelling in landslide hazard assessment in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. The modelling was performed within a geographical information system (GIS), to derive a landslide hazard map of the south-western marginal hills of the Kathmandu Valley. Thematic maps representing various factors (e.g., slope, aspect, relief, flow accumulation, distance to drainage, soil depth, engineering soil type, landuse, geology, distance to road and extreme one-day rainfall) that are related to landslide activity were generated, using field data and GIS techniques, at a scale of 1:10,000. Landslide events of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to assess the Bayesian probability of landslides in each cell unit with respect to the causative factors. To assess the accuracy of the resulting landslide hazard map, it was correlated with a map of landslides triggered by the 2002 extreme rainfall events. The accuracy of the map was evaluated by various techniques, including the area under the curve, success rate and prediction rate. The resulting landslide hazard value calculated from the old landslide data showed a prediction accuracy of > 80%. The analysis suggests that geomorphological and human-related factors play significant roles in determining the probability value, while geological factors play only minor roles. Finally, after the rectification of the landslide hazard values of the new landslides using those of the old landslides, a landslide hazard map with > 88% prediction accuracy was prepared. The methodology appears to have extensive applicability to the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal, with the limitation that the model's performance is contingent on the availability of data from past landslides.     

Structural control of the morphometry of open rock basins, Kananaskis region, Canadian Rocky Mountains

The morphometry of chutes (couloirs), rock funnels, and open cirques are related to the structure of dissected rock masses in the Kananaskis region of the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Data for ten morphometric variables were derived from digital elevation models of 56 open rock basins. The basins were classified structurally according to the relative orientations of bedding planes and the rock slopes. A hypothesis of no differences in morphometry among structural classes is rejected from the results of nonparametric analysis of variance and paired comparisons of rank scores. Basins on dip and overdip slopes have a distinct size, and those on anaclinal slopes have a distinct width and shape. Variation in morphometry from low compactness and area/relief (chutes) to high compactness and low area/relief (funnels) to high compactness and area/relief (open cirques) corresponds to a change in dominant structure from orthoclinal to dip-overdip to underdip to anaclinal. The dip of bedding planes relative to the slope of rockwalls controls the mode of initial displacement of joint blocks and, thereby, the spatial distribution of the retreat of rockwalls. The angle between the rock slope and the strike of dipping strata determines whether beds of differing stability form chutes and buttresses (orthoclinal slopes), or extend across rockwalls (cataclinal and anaclinal slopes) and retreat at similar rates to form funnels and open cirques. The optimal structure for large compact rock basins is anaclinal, and the least favourable is cataclinal dip-overdip slopes. Topoclimate and other geologic structures may account for variance in morphometry not explained by differences among structural classes.     

Determining landslide susceptibility in Central Taiwan from rainfall and six site factors using the analytical hierarchy process method

This work provides a landslide susceptibility assessment model for rainfall-induced landslides in Central Taiwan based on the analytical hierarchy process method. The model considers rainfall and six site factors, including slope, geology, vegetation, soil moisture, road development and historical landslides. The rainfall factor consists of 10-day antecedent rainfall and total rainfall during a rainfall event. Landslide susceptibility values are calculated for both before and after the beginning of a rainfall event. The 175 landslide cases with detailed field surveys are used to determine a landslide-susceptibility threshold value of 9.0. When a landslide susceptibility assessment value exceeds the threshold value, slope failure is likely to occur. Three zones with different landslide susceptibility levels (below, slightly above, and far above the threshold) are identified. The 9149 landslides caused by Typhoon Toraji in Central Taiwan are utilized to validate the study's result. Approximately, 0.2%, 0.4% and 15.3% of the typhoon-caused landslides are located in the three landslide susceptibility zones, respectively. Three villages with 6.6%, 0.4% and 4.9% of the landslides respectively are used to validate the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility map and analyze the main causes of landslides. The landslide susceptibility assessment model can be used to evaluate susceptibility relative to accumulated rainfall, and is useful as an early warning and landslide monitoring tool.     

汶川地震灾区滑坡空间特征变化分析

“5.12”汶川大地震触发了大量滑坡,给人民群众生命财产和社会经济发展造成了巨大损失。基于GIS空间分析方法,结合震前和震后的滑坡编目数据,对滑坡与坡度、坡向、高程、岩土类型、道路、河流和断裂带等7个孕灾环境因素的空间分布关系进行统计分析。结果表明：滑坡与孕灾环境因素的空间分布关系受地震的影响比较大。相比于震前,震后滑坡发生的优势坡度、优势岩土类型、优势距离缓冲区等均发生了很大的变化;并且坡向、距道路距离、距河流距离等因素对滑坡有明显地趋势性影响。     

汶川地震灾区滑坡空间特征变化分析简

“5.12”汶川大地震触发了大量滑坡,给人民群众生命财产和社会经济发展造成了巨大损失。基于GIS空间分析方法,结合震前和震后的滑坡编目数据,对滑坡与坡度、坡向、高程、岩土类型、道路、河流和断裂带等7个孕灾环境因素的空间分布关系进行统计分析。结果表明：滑坡与孕灾环境因素的空间分布关系受地震的影响比较大。相比于震前,震后滑坡发生的优势坡度、优势岩土类型、优势距离缓冲区等均发生了很大的变化;并且坡向、距道路距离、距河流距离等因素对滑坡有明显地趋势性影响。