青藏高原冰川对气候变化的响应及趋势预测

青藏高原是世界上中低纬度地区最大的现代冰川分布区,这里冰川末端在近百年来总的进退变化趋势是退缩,但在本世纪初至20～30年代和70～80年代间多数冰川曾出现过稳定甚至前进。对比近百年来气候变化,冰川变化虽然滞后于温度变化,但它们之间存在着很好的对应关系,多数冰川对温度变化滞后时间在10～20年间。根据80年代以来平均物质净平衡值,大致将青藏高原划分为:内部为平衡或正平衡区;向外为负平衡区;边缘为强负平衡区。以冰川对气候响应滞后关系预测,在今后10～20年间,青藏高原边缘冰川末端仍继续处于后退,而高原内部冰川末端位置变化不大。     

中国西部冰川对近期气候变暖的响应*

中国冰川主要分布在青藏高原及周边地区,在这一广大的区域内分布有冰川46377条。研究表明,中国西部变暖显著,1950年代以来平均气温上升0.2℃/10a,其中1990年代是近千年中最暖的10年;同时,1950s以来西北各省的降水量增加了约18 ％ 。为认识这一气候变化对中国西部冰川的影响,利用遥感和地理信息系统方法,获取了近50a来5000多条冰川的变化状况。结果表明,中国西部82.2 ％ 的冰川处于退缩状态,冰川面积减少了4.5 ％ ,同时也有一些冰川处于前进状态。此外,近数十年中国西部冰川变化表现出明显的区域差异,青藏高原中部和西北部地区的冰川相对稳定,而高原周边山区的冰川物质亏损严重,处于加速退缩状态。     

1964-2010年青藏高原长江源各拉丹冬地区冰川变化及其不确定性分析

利用1964年美国CORONA间谍卫星影像和1976-2010年的Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+遥感影像, 对青藏高原长江源各拉丹冬地区的冰川进行监测, 获得每10 a间隔的冰川面积数据, 并对冰川制图中的不确定性进行了评估.由于冰川表面比较洁净, 认为该地区冰川变化的不确定性主要由分辨率(Landsat)和人为操作差异造成, 误差可达1%~2%.通过对比发现: 1964-2010年间, 各拉丹冬地区冰川面积总体上减少了45.75 km², 相对变化为6.80%, 冰川年平均变化速度约为0.99 km²·a^-1, 相对变化速度为0.15%·a^-1; 该地区冰川总体退缩较为缓慢, 但部分冰川变化显著, 在138条冰川中, 有14条大冰川存在较为明显的变化.在过去的近50 a中, 该地区的冰川并不是都呈退缩状态, 先后有9条冰川出现过前进的现象, 其中有1条冰川一直处于前进状态, 长江源头冰川(姜古迪如北支冰川)先后出现过两次前进, 分别发生在1964-1977年间和2000-2010年间.     

念青唐古拉山羊八井附近古仁河口冰川的变化

利用GPS测量冰川不同时期的相关位置,结合地形图和航空照片的分析,在2004-2006年连续监测了念青唐古拉山羊八井古仁河口冰川的变化.结果表明:自小冰期以来,古仁河口冰川表现出较强的退缩状态,小冰期最盛期冰川末端海拔比现在降低100 m;小冰期后期到1970年,冰川末端退缩幅度约为7.0 m.a-1,1970-2004年平均退缩幅度为8.3 m.a-1.观测得到2004-2005年的平均退缩量约9.5 m.a-1,2005-2006年的平均退缩量为17.0 m.a-1.古仁河口冰川变化的现状,显示出冰川退缩幅度呈增大趋势.这预示着在全球气候变暖影响下,羊八井地区的冰川消融在逐渐增大,冰川水资源锐减,由此引起冰川面积的缩小.     

可可西里马兰山冰川的近期变化

位于可可西里地区的马兰山冰帽，冰川覆盖了整个山体，冰川面积达195km^2，属极大陆型冰川，雪线海拔在5340－5540m之间，大多数冰川末端存在小冰期的碛垄，一般可分辨出3道，自小冰期以来，随着气候的变化，马兰山冰帽表现出波动退缩趋势。小冰期时，冰舌末端南坡比现在低20m，北坡低20－40m，由冰川退缩引起的冰川面积的减小相当于现代冰川面积的4．6％，略小于整个羌塘高原地区小冰期以来冰川面积减小的幅度（8％）。近百年来，冰川的退缩量为45－60m左右，而从1970年以来的30a中，马兰山冰川的退缩量为30－50m，平均年退缩量为1－1．7m。虽然小于高原边缘和其它地区冰川退缩幅度，但是退缩速率正在逐渐增大，这将对高原内陆脆弱的生态系统和生态环境产生较大的影响。     

20世纪初以来青藏高原东南部岗日嘎布山的冰川变化

采用地形图、航空摄影相片、中巴资源卫星和Landsat TM数字影像, 对青藏高原东南部岗日嘎布山区20世纪初以来的冰川变化进行了研究, 分析了该地区冰川对20世纪后期全球变暖的响应. 结果表明: 20世纪初期至1980年, 研究区的冰川基本处于退缩状态, 期间冰川面积减少了13.8%, 储量减少了9.8%, 储量减少量相当于249.2×108 m3水当量, 因冰川萎缩导致其对河川径流的调节作用减弱了一半左右. 1980年以来, 本区气候表现出升温和降水增加, 在此气候变化背景下, 冰川总体呈面积减小的退缩状态, 但有一定数量的冰川处于前进之中, 这可能与不同规模冰川对气候变化的响应特点和响应时间有关.     

1970—2000年羌塘高原冰川变化及其预测研究

采用地学信息图谱方法,分析了羌塘高原1970—2000年的冰川变化.结果表明：1970—2000年期间,羌塘高原整体呈萎缩趋势,冰川面积退缩的年平均速率（APAC）为0.145%.a-1,年平均退缩面积3.004 km2.a-1,但也有部分冰川处于前进状态.1970—2000年羌塘高原冰川退缩加剧,但与中国西部大部分地...     

近几十年来喜马拉雅山冰川变化及其对水资源的影响

对近几十年来喜马拉雅山地区冰川变化的研究成果进行了综述,可以看出:气温普遍升高、冰川加剧退缩和冰川湖泊扩大是喜马拉雅山地区气候和冰川变化的主要特征和后果.冰川退缩导致冰川灾害的危险性增加并对本地区河流径流和水资源产生较长远的影响.但各段的气候、冰川变化及其影响存在区域差异,还需要对冰川变化和水资源影响方面的预估进行更广泛和深入的研究.     

1959-2013年中国境内萨吾尔山冰川变化特征

萨吾尔山冰川条数少,中国冰川编目将萨吾尔山南北坡的冰川分别附入了天山和阿尔泰山区的冰川,不便于冰川变化研究,因此应给予其特殊考虑.鉴于前人工作中鲜有涉及该区的冰川研究,以萨吾尔山区冰川为研究对象,利用地形图、冰川编目数据以及Landsat遥感影像数据结合实测探地雷达数据,分析萨吾尔山地区冰川变化特征.通过目视解译结合野外实地观测的方法,得到1959-2013年该区的冰川变化特征.结果表明:总体上,萨吾尔山冰川持续退缩明显,1959-2013年中国境内的冰川面积由17.69 km²退缩为10.13 km²,退缩率42.74%,平均每年退缩0.14 km²;萨吾尔山北坡的冰川退缩率为37.57%,南坡退缩率为72.69%,南坡冰川退缩率基本为北坡的两倍.分析认为,南坡冰川退缩率较高的原因除了与坡向因素有关外,单条冰川面积大小是该差异的主要影响因素;基于木斯岛冰川探地雷达测厚结果,对该冰川体积进行了初步估算并与1959年地形图估算出的体积进行对比,发现该冰川体积减少约44.6%.     

1980-2015年青藏高原东南部岗日嘎布山冰川变化的遥感监测

基于地形图、航空摄影相片和Landsat OLI遥感影像,对青藏高原东南部岗日嘎布山1980-2015年间的冰川变化进行了研究。结果表明： 1980-2015年,岗日嘎布山冰川面积减少679.50 km²（-24.91%）,年平均面积退缩率为0.71%·a^-1,末端海拔平均抬升了111 m。研究区范围内有10条冰川处于前进状态,冰川长度平均增加566.17 m;其余冰川均处于退缩状态,冰川长度平均减少823.49 m。与中国其他山系冰川相比,岗日嘎布山冰川面积年平均退缩速率较大,冰川长度变化速率最大,是冰川退缩最强烈的地区之一。岗日嘎布山冰川变化与气候变化关系密切,对研究区附近三个气象站5-9月平均气温和降水变化分析表明,自1980年以来,岗日嘎布山5-9月平均气温显著上升,降水变化不明显,是导致该区域冰川呈现快速退缩的主要原因。     

青藏高原唐古拉山口第四纪冰碛层划分及其地质环境意义

在对唐古拉山口现代冰川和古冰川考察研究的基础上，结合定位观测资料和TL、^10B-^26Al-^21Ne及^14C测年数据，对区内第四纪冰川遗迹进行了深入讨论，划分出二次冰期(即中更新世晚期的倒数第二次冰期、晚更新世中一晚期的末次冰期)和二次全新世冰进(即新冰期和小冰期)。提出在早更新世时，由于山体未达到当时冰川发育的雪线高度，所以未发育冰川。但在唐古拉山口地区，截止目前还未找到中更新世早期的倒数第三次冰期的冰川遗迹，由于高原隆升的滞后性和冰川发育的延滞效应及“亚洲干极”的耦合，推测仍只发育局部冰川作用。进一步研究表明，古今雪线由高原边缘向腹地升高，唐古拉山地区高出边缘1500m左右，生动表现了“亚洲干极”的作用；广泛分布的湖群说明羌塘地区是一个大江大河尚未伸入的内流地区，意味着青藏高原是个年青的高原。由于青藏高原的隆升，对高原腹地引起的干旱化过程和水分严重不足，使唐古拉山地区的冰川自倒数第二次冰期以来，冰川规模一次比一次明显地减小。     

青藏高原东南部他念他翁山全新世早中期冰进事件研究

他念他翁山位于横断山脉西部,是海洋性冰川向亚大陆性冰川的过渡区,维持冰川发育的降水补给主要由西南季风带来,该区第四纪冰川进退对西南季风波动有较为直接的反映。正是这一地理位置的特殊性,使得该区第四纪冰川研究具有重要意义。采用野外地貌调查与宇宙成因核素测年技术相结合的方法,试图查明他念他翁山青古隆槽谷全新世期间冰川地貌学特征,并确定其发生的具体时间,探讨其响应机制。结果显示：他念他翁山全新世早中期冰川波动的时限介于（6.13±0.37）~（8.83±0.50） ka,可能是当时西南季风强盛,降水增加的结果。研究可为探究冰川作用与西南季风气候变化及全球气候变化之间的动力学联系提供新依据。     

The Glacial History of Landscape in the Batura Muztagh, NW Karakoram

The most recent glacial history of the Bar Valley on the Batura south side of the great Karakorum main ridge shows a marked retreat of the Kukuar and Baltar glaciers since 1915 by 8 km. This tendency is continuing. A great lateral moraine (GLM), which shows the latest, historical maximum postglacial stage, is accompanied by a higher level, which reflects a neoglacial glacier level whose ice margins no longer exist. An earth-pyramid moraine rising high above the glacier, as also occurs on the northern declivities of the Batura, does not mark a specific level, but bears witness to a valley-filling glacier, for which further indicators can be found along the valley flank. In the gorge-like narrow trough valley, the flanks of which are covered by steep debris cones originating from the postglacial, numerous former glacial characteristics contrast with the current glaciation of the far retreated Kukuar and Baltar glaciers. Moraine material found at the valley outlet at Chalt and also on the Talmutz pass demonstrates complete ice filling of the Bar valley, also supported by the Daintar glacier. From a glacial geomorphological perspective, this confirms a late to high glacial connection of the Bar glacier to a Hunza glacier, as postulated by Kuhle (2005).     

The glacial history of landscape in the Batura Muztagh, NW Karakoram

The most recent glacial history of the Bar Valley on the Batura south side of the great Karakorum main ridge shows a marked retreat of the Kukuar and Baltar glaciers since 1915 by 8 km. This tendency is continuing. A great lateral moraine (GLM), which shows the latest, historical maximum postglacial stage, is accompanied by a higher level, which reflects a neoglacial glacier level whose ice margins no longer exist. An earth-pyramid moraine rising high above the glacier, as also occurs on the northern declivities of the Batura, does not mark a specific level, but bears witness to a valley-filling glacier, for which further indicators can be found along the valley flank. In the gorge-like narrow trough valley, the flanks of which are covered by steep debris cones originating from the postglacial, numerous former glacial characteristics contrast with the current glaciation of the far retreated Kukuar and Baltar glaciers. Moraine material found at the valley outlet at Chalt and also on the Talmutz pass demonstrates complete ice filling of the Bar valley, also supported by the Daintar glacier. From a glacial geomorphological perspectives, this confirms a late to high glacial connection of the Bar glacier to a Hunza glacier, as postulated by Kuhle (2005).     

Palaeoglaciation of Bayan Har Shan,northeastern Tibetan Plateau: glacial geology indicates maximum extents limited to ice cap and ice field scales

Key locations within an extensive area of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, centred on Bayan Har Shan, have been mapped to distinguish glacial from non‐glacial deposits. Prior work suggests palaeo‐glaciers ranging from valley glaciers and local ice caps in the highest mountains to a regional or even plateau‐scale ice sheet. New field data show that glacial deposits are abundant in high mountain areas in association with large‐scale glacial landforms. In addition, glacial deposits are present in several locations outside areas with distinct glacial erosional landforms, indicating that the most extensive palaeo‐glaciers had little geomorphological impact on the landscape towards their margins. The glacial geological record does indicate extensive maximum glaciation, with local ice caps covering entire elevated mountain areas. However, absence of glacial traces in intervening lower‐lying plateau areas suggests that local ice caps did not merge to form a regional ice sheet on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau around Bayan Har Shan. No evidence exists for past ice sheet glaciation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Landscape modification by meltwater channels at margins of cold-based glaciers, Dry Valleys, Antarctica

This article describes distinctive lateral meltwater channels at the margins of low-elevation cold-based glaciers in the Dry Valleys. The channels significantly modify the ground surface and indicate that cold-based glaciers can be active geomorphic agents. Summer meltwater from the glacier surface flows over ice-aprons and erodes into the frozen ground creating channels up to 3 m deep and 10 m wide adjacent to unmodified ground that is protected beneath the glacier itself. Rapid fluvial excavation in the channels leads to undercutting and collapse of channel walls, which is capable of overturning large boulders. During glacial retreat, a succession of channels is incised into newly exposed ground creating a distinctive series of nested lateral channels and ridges. These represent the most obvious and persistent geomorphological signature of cold-based glacier activity in the region. Cold-based glaciers may advance and retreat over the same area many times without necessarily destroying older features, thereby creating a complex series of channels, deposits and remnant surfaces with a disordered chronology. Recognizing the role of cold-based glaciers and their meltwater channels on landscape evolution is critical for interpreting the timing and style of glacial events in the Antarctic.     

Timing of glacier fluctuations and trigger mechanisms in eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau during the late Quaternary

It is highly debated whether glacial advances on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) occurred as a response to temperature cooling, or whether they were forced by an increase in moisture brought by the intensive Indian summer monsoon. We here report a case study investigating this issue. Multiple moraine series in the Yingpu Valley, Queer Shan ranges of the Hengduan Mountains, and eastern QTP, provide an excellent archive for examining the timing and trigger mechanism of glacier fluctuations. Twenty-seven optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) samples of glacial sediments were collected from this valley. The quartz OSL ages show that the moraine series of Y-1, I, M and O were formed during the Late Holocene, Late Glacial, the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (likely mid-MIS-3). The youngest Y-2 moraines probably formed during the Little Ice Age (LIA). The oldest H moraines formed before MIS-3. We found that glacial advances during the late Quaternary at the Yingpu Valley responded to cold stages or cold events rather than episodes of enhanced summer monsoon and moisture. As a result, glaciers in the monsoonal Hengduan Mountains were mainly triggered by changes in temperature. Millennial time scale temperature oscillations might have caused the multiple glacial advances.     

基于GIS的玛旁雍错流域冰川地貌及现代冰川湖泊变化研究

基于多源多时相的数字遥感影像、地形图和DEM数据,利用遥感(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS)技术,对西藏玛旁雍错流域冰川地貌类型和空间分布进行了研究,并对流域内近30 a来冰川和湖泊的变化进行分析.结果表明:1974-2003年玛旁雍错流域冰川总面积减少了7.27 km²,平均退缩速率0.24 km²·a^-1;湖泊总面积减少37.58 km²,平均退缩速率1.25 km²·a^-1.多时相的监测表明,冰川在加速退缩,且阳坡冰川的消融速度大于阴坡,坡度陡、面积小的冰川消融比例大于坡度缓、面积较大的冰川;湖泊面积先减少后有所增加,但总面积还是减少了,不少小湖泊消失.分析流域附近气象资料可知,气温上升和降水量减少是玛旁雍错流域内冰川消融与退缩的主要原因.