IMPACT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON FLOOD AND WATER LOGGING DISASTERS IN LIXIAHE REGION

ＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＦＵＴＵＲＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＦＬＯＯＤＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＬＯＧＧＩＮＧＤＩＳＡＳＴＥＲＳＩＮＬＩＸＩＡＨＥＲＥＧＩＯＮ许朋柱ＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＦＵＴＵＲＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＦＬＯＯＤＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＬＯＧＧＩＮＧＤＩ...     

Impact of future sea level rise on flood and water logging disasters in lixiahe region

Lixiahe region is one of the susceptible area to flood and waterlogging disasters in China due to its low topographic relief and having difficulty in draining floodwater away. The condition will be more serious if sea level rises in the future. The estimated results by some scientists indicate that the sea level could rise probably 20–100 cm by 2050. However, what the effect will future sea level rise exerts on flood drainage and on flood or waterlogging disasters? A hydrological system model has been developed to study the problem in the lower reaches of the Sheyang River basin. Predicted results from the model show that, if sea level rises, drainage capacity of each drainage river will decrease obviously, and the water level will also rise. From the change of drainage capacity of drainage rivers the trends of flood and waterlogging disasters are analyzed in the paper if the severe flood that happened in the past meets with future sea level rise. Some countermeasures for disaster reduction and prevention against sea-level rise are put forward.     

IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL EROSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NORTH JIANGSU COASTAL PLAINO

（季子修）（蒋自巽）ＩＭＰＡＣＴＳＯＦＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＣＯＡＳＴＡＬＥＲＯＳＩＯＮＩＮＴＨＥＣＨＡＮＧＪＩＡＮＧＲＩＶＥＲＤＥＬＴＡＡＮＤＮＯＲＴＨＪＩＡＮＧＳＵＣＯＡＳＴＡＬＰＬＡＩＮＯ￥ＪｉＺｉｘｉｕ（ＮａｎｊｉｎｇＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ...     

Impacts of sea level rise on coastal erosion in the Changjiang River delta and north Jiangsu coastal plain

At present, approximately 36% of coasts are experiencing net erosion in the Changjiang River delta and the north Jiangsu coastal plain. Future sea level rise will accelerate the process of coastal erosion. According to the ratio of the calculated value of coast retreat by Bruun rule to the estimated value by using measured data, the proportion affected by sea level rise in total coastal erosion has been estimated in this paper. When sea level rises by 20cm, the proportion determined by sea level rise will increase from 1.0% at present to 2.2% in the future in the coasts of abandoned Huanghe River delta and from 8.5%–9.6% to 13.5%–15.2% in the north and south banks of the Changjiang River delta. This result is lower than that from the similar research in the world, and this phenomenon is related with the special development process of the coasts in this area. The mechanism of accelerating coastal erosion by sea level rise is that sea level is will increase the intensity of tidal current, wave and storm surge and decrease the ability to reduce the force of waves on the tidal flat and coastal wetland due to the loss of their areas. Therefore, the length of erosion coasts will increase, the sedimentation rate of accretion coasts will decrease or even turn accretion into erosion, the width of tidal flat will reduce and coastal slope will increase. So the project of coastal protection of this area must be reinforced. Project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Extreme Sea Level Rise off the Northwest Coast of the South China Sea in 2012

Tide gauge data are used to investigate sea level variability off the northwest coast of the South China Sea (SCS) in 2012, and a significant sea level elevation with a magnitude approaching 79 mm is observed. Analysis suggests that an abnormal sea surface heat flux and freshwater flux may have contributed to this abnormal rise in sea level, together with the remote influence of an ENSO event. Further investigation shows that the event was dominated by the positive freshwater flux, where large volumes of water entered the ocean, and a maximum is centered to the south of Guangdong province, China. Simultaneously, a positive anomalous heat flux occurred in the northwestern part of the SCS, which is considered to have made a positive contribution to the high local sea level elevation. In addition to the heat flux, the ENSO event also had a significant effect on the event, where the La Niña-induced northwest Pacific cyclone contributed to sea level rise over the northwestern SCS through dynamic and thermodynamic interactions.     

RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE AND ITS EFFECTS ON ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES IN CHINAS COASTAL AREAS

ＲＥＬＡＴＩＶＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＡＮＤＩＴＳＥＦＦＥＣＴＳＯＮＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＮＤＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＳＩＮＣＨＩＮＡＳＣＯＡＳＴＡＬＡＲＥＡＳ￥ＹａｎｇＧｕｉｓｈａｎ（杨桂山）（ＮａｎｊｉｎｇＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｇｒａｐｈｙａｎ...     

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary. By correlative analysis of chlorinity, discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity, distribution of the Changjiang River estuary, the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm. The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.     

岭南文学中的一抹湛蓝——论湛江本土文学作品中的海洋韵味与海洋色调

近年来,湛江的本土作者踵武前贤,致力于＂海洋文章＂,创作出了一批具有海洋韵味与海洋色调的作品,为岭南文学版图添加了一抹湛蓝。湛江本土作者发表了一批＂女人与海＂的小说,塑造出具有＂深广博大＂情怀的＂海的女儿＂形象。另外,湛江本土诗文＂面朝大海＂,表现了＂天容海色＂的人文与自然景观,创造了＂湛蓝渺远＂的艺术境界。湛江本土文学的意义在于,优秀的本土文学作品可以让外界认识湛江,树立湛江的文化形象。湛江本土文学的未来在于,本土作家应该发挥＂地灵福气生天外＂的地理优势,奋力开创＂自有高人出世才＂的局面。     

Relative sea level rise and its effects on environment and resources in China’s coastal areas

Due to global climate warming and natural and man-made land subsidence etc., relative sea level rise in the coastal plains of China will exceed 2–3 times over the golbal mean value during the first half part of the 21st century. It will result in a series of adverse impacts on evolution of natural environment and socioeconomic development of the coastal area. This paper analyses environmental and resource effects induced by relative sea level rise in China’s coastal areas on the basis of rough estimate of future relative sea level rise. These effects include inundating tidal flat and wetlands and increase in inundated risk of coastal habitable land, exacerbating storm surge. coastal erosion, flooding and salt water intrusion hazards, as well as endangering land, water, tourism and living resources and their utilization.     

Relationship between Antarctic sea ice and the climate in summer of China

The variations of sea ice are different in different regions in Antarctica, thus have different impacts on local atmospheric circulation and global climatic system. The relationships between the sea ice in Ross Sea and Weddell Sea regions and the synoptic climate in summer of China are investigated in this paper via diagnostic analysis methods by using global sea ice concentration gridded data covering Jan. 1968 through Dec. 2002 obtained from Hadley Center, combined with Geopotential Height on 500hPa and 100hPa over North Hemisphere and monthly precipitation and air temperatures data covering the corresponding period over 160 meteorological stations in China obtained from CMA （ China Meteorological Administration）. Results disclose that both these two regions are of indicative meanings to the climate in summer of China. The Ross Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the precipitation in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will result in less precipitation in Northeast China in the following June. Weddell Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the air temperature in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will contribute to lower air temperature in Northeast China in the following June.     

Coast sea level and Asian monsoon system a downscaling exercise for Chinese coast

In this study, the authors examined the relationship between monthly sea level data and concurrent large-scale monthly mean sea level pressure and SST data for 1960 to 1990, which are reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; sea level variations due to variations of regional atmospheric forcing and oceanic circulation, are not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. The authours applied a statistical “down scaling” strategy to sea level along the Chinese coast. Two interrelated processes were identified: one process is the local wind or wave set-up of water due to Asian monsoon wind anomalies; the other is the rainfall diluting effect in spring. At interdecadal time scale, the later becomes more important and most likely plays a major role in the planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction taking place in the eastern North Pacific. Contribution No. 3236 from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Key project 39630060 and Project 49476274 supported by NSFC, and also supported by president's fund of Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Long term sea level change and water mass balance in the South China Sea

Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993–2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea. The altimeter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of (3.5±0.9) mm yr-1 during the period 1993–2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly d...     

COAST SEA LEVEL AND ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM A DOWNCALING EXERCISE FOR CHINESE COAST

CDntnbutionNo.3236fromtheInstituteofthenology,ChinaseAcadeInyofSdenas.KeyprojeCt396MandProjeCt4M76274supp0rtedbyNSFC,andabosupportedbypnsident'sboofCh1nereAedernyofSdenas.IwnODUruONThemonsoonisacirculationfeaturethatisplanetaryinscaleandhasanidentiliablesignalregardingitSsubsequentintensitysomeninemonthspriortotheaCtivestageofthesummrmonsoon(WbsterandYang,l992,Vemekar,l994).Furthertnre,thernagnitudeofthemons00n'svariabilityissubstantialandidentifiableoveralargearmindudingthePadficd…     

加拿大Hudson海湾地区的水文研究

Hudson海湾的河川径流量在整个加拿大河川径流量中占有很大的比例，所有河流排泄量约30％流人了Hudson和James海湾。研究了该地区河川径流与当地气候变化之间的关系；把河川向James海湾的排泄与曼尼托巴省Churchill地区海水位的变化联系起来，讨论了其对Hudson海湾再循环的影响；根据曼尼托巴省Churchill地区海水位的观测资料重点讨论了该地区海水位在历史时期的变化及未来的预测变化等三个重要水文问题。最后指出了今后在Hudson海湾地区进行水文研究的方向。     

FORECAST OF IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THELOW COLONIZED ISLANDS AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER MOUTH

Thethreatagainstthecoastallowlandcausedbysea-levelriseisoneofthefocusesoftheworid'sat-tention.Thebestestimatevalueofglobaltheoreticalsea-levelriseinthe2lstcenturyisO.66m(SCOR,l99l)byworldwideauthoritativeorganizationsuchasIPCC(IntergovernmentPanelofClimateChange)etal.ThecrustofChangiiangDeltaissubsiding.Theaveragesubsidencerateinthelast2OOOaisl.2mm/a(PANetal.,l985).TheislandsoftheChangiiangRivermouthareaccumulatinglowlandislandsandtheirnat-uralelevationisbelowthehightidallevelofsprin…     

Inventory and geometrical changes in small glaciers covering three Northern Patagonian summits using remote sensing and GIS techniques

In the last few decades, a large quantity of research has been performed to elucidate the current behavior of glaciers in southern Chile, especially with respect to the volumetric changes in the outlets of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields (NPI and SPI, respectively). Calculations have shown a generalized thinning and withdrawal, which greatly contributes to the increase in sea level attributed to the ice melt from non-polar glaciers. However, these icefields are surrounded by many small icecaps, which have yet to be studied in detail. A precise estimation of the volume of ice located in these mountain chains could provide new information with respect to this area's exact contribution to the increase in sea level. Thus, this study presents an inventory of relatively small Northern Patagonian glaciers in the surrounding of the three summits: Mount Queulat, and the Macá and Hudson volcanoes. The study used remote sensing techniques in a GIS environment to determine the margins, surface areas, thickness changes and hypsometry for the glaciated zones. Landsat images from different dates were analyzed using standard band ratio and screen delineation techniques. Additionally, digital elevation models from different dates were compared using map algebra, calculating thickness changes. Based on the results, we propose that there are important volumetric changes in the glaciers studied, which could be explained by precipitation trends in a general context, and an influence of the glaciers' sizes in some local response. Therefore, we suggest the exact contribution of the Patagonia to the increase in sea level corresponds to a regional pattern rather than just the behavior of a single ice field.     

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罗圈期—东坡期地层格架研究及时代讨论

罗圈组堆积冰碛在沉积海盆地中的搬运方式主要为浊流，由浊流沉积物的层状构造特征（块状、似层状、层状、板状）和组合方式可反映其移动距离的远近和相对海平面变化情况。在陆源物质供应间歇阶段，沉积海盆地中生成碳酸盐岩沉积，构成连接含小壳化石的深海沉积与不含化石的浅海沉积的物理地层纽带。罗圈组为一穿时地层单位，时代为震旦纪—早寒武世。罗圈组与东坡组是因陆源物质搬运距离远近、沉积环境改变所形成的同期异相沉积     

海陆过渡带氯离子迁移规律分析研究

伴随全球气候变暖导致的海平面上升及沿海地区对地下水资源的超量开采,将会诱发海咸水入侵内陆地下水,导致海陆过渡带的迁移,影响区域社会经济及水资源安全。该文以山东半岛蓝色经济区为研究背景,选取区域内龙口、招远滨海区域作为研究区,首先对研究区内的地下水流场规律进行刻画,然后以模拟因子,对目前地下水超采情景下的海陆过渡带迁移规律进行量化分析研究,研究结果表明:龙口、招远滨海区域海陆过渡带的宽度约为1.5～4.5km,且内陆地下水位越高,海陆过渡带向内陆迁移的速度越慢、范围越小。该成果对研究山东半岛蓝色经济区海陆过渡带的迁移具有重要指导意义。