Bayesian Spatial Modelling of Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray logging is a method routinely employed by geophysicists and environmental engineers in site geology evaluations. Modelling of gamma ray data from individual boreholes assists in the local identification of major lithological changes; modelling these data from a network of boreholes assists with lithological mapping and spatial stratigraphic correlation. In this paper we employ Bayesian spatial partition models to analyse gamma ray data spatially. In particular, a spatial partition is defined via a Voronoi tessellation and the mean intensity is assumed constant in each cell of the partition. The number of vertices generating the tessellation as well as the locations of vertices are assumed unknown, and uncertainty about these quantities is described via a hierarchical prior distribution. We describe the advantages of the spatial partition modelling approach in the context of smoothing gamma ray count data and describe an implementation that may be extended to the fitting of a more general model than a constant mean within each cell of the partition. As an illustration of the methodology we consider a data set collected from a network of eight boreholes, which is part of a geophysical study to assist in mapping the lithology of a site. Gamma ray logs are linked with geological information from cores and the spatial analysis of log data assists with predicting the lithology at unsampled locations.     

高放废物地质处置阿拉善预选区工程地质适宜性评价

区域工程地质适宜性评价是高放废物处置库选址的关键问题之一。基于ArcGIS平台,采用综合指数模型对我国高放核废物处置库阿拉善预选区进行了区域工程地质适宜性评价。在现场工程地质调查与资料系统收集的基础上,综合考虑了核废料选址的特殊目的和要求,比选确定岩性、断裂构造、地震、构造应力、地形变作为阿拉善区域工程地质适宜性评价的因子。利用专家-层次分析法确定了各评价指标的权重,基于评价指标及权重的确定,按适宜性好、适宜性较好、适宜性中等、适宜性较差和适宜性差5个级别对阿拉善区域进行了工程地质适宜性分区。评价分区结果为阿拉善预选区高放废物处置适宜性地段选取提供了依据,其中的塔木素和诺日公区段是适宜性良好的两个地段,进一步的选址工作可在这两个地段开展。     

高放废物深地质处置地下水数值模拟应用综述

开展地下水数值模拟研究是高放废物处置场地安全评价的重要组成部分,然而深地质处置介质类型的复杂性、基岩深部资料的相对匮乏性导致模拟结果存在不确定性,如何刻画深部地下水动力场并评估可能引起的风险已成为高放废物处置安全评价中重点关注的问题。在大量文献调研的基础上,综述了世界典型国家高放废物深地质处置场地的地下水数值模拟与不确定性分析应用,并归纳总结该领域研究经验,得到以下认识:（1）深地质处置场深部构造、裂隙的发育与展布决定了地下水循环条件,探究适用于基岩裂隙地区新的水文地质试验方法是提高地下水数值模型仿真性的基础;（2）不同尺度模型融合是解决深地质处置地下水模拟的有效技术方法,区域尺度多采用等效连续介质法,场地尺度使用等效连续多孔介质和离散裂隙网络耦合模型,处置库尺度使用离散裂隙网络方法,其次需重点关注未来大时间尺度下放射性核素在地质体中的迁移转化规律,模拟预测场址区域地下水环境长期循环演变对核素迁移的潜在影响;（3）考虑到不同的处置层主岩岩性以及在多介质中发生的THMC（温度场—渗流场—应力场—化学场）过程,目前国内外常用的地下水模拟软件有:Porflow、Modflow、GMS及MT3DMS等用于模拟孔隙或等效连续介质,Connectflow、Feflow及FracMan等用于模拟地下水和核素在结晶岩、花岗岩等裂隙中的迁移,TOUGH系列软件主要应用于双重介质的水流、溶质及热运移模拟;（4）指导开展有针对性的模型和参数的不确定性分析工作,减少投入工作量,提高模型精度,并可针对处置库长期演变、废物罐失效、极端降雨等多情景预测模拟,为处置库安全评价及设计提供基础数据支撑;（5）针对我国深地质处置地下水数值模拟研究现状,下一步应加强区域地质、水文地质、裂隙测量以及现场试验等相关的调查及监测工作,多介质耦合、多场耦合模拟及不确定性分析研究将会是未来的研究重点。     

放射性废物处置研究进展

放射性废物的处置是制约核能可持续发展的关键因素,目前已成为国际社会关注的热点问题之一.针对处置场地核素运移污染的风险问题,对放射性废物的处置及其选址、核素运移试验和核素运移模型进行了回顾和论述.指出采用多重屏障系统进行放射性废物的处置,其安全性是可以得到保障的;处置场的选址应遵循就近原则,并应从环境水文地质的角度来构建...     

A solid waste disposal site selection procedure based on groundwater vulnerability mapping

In this study, a new, GIS-based solid waste site selection tool (DUPIT) is introduced to obtain a systematic and unbiased methodology during the evaluation phases of alternative solid waste disposal areas with regards to vulnerability to groundwater pollution. The proposed tool is an index technique based on the linear combination of five different hydrogeological parameters including Depth to groundwater table, Upper layer lithology, Permeability of the unsaturated zone, Impermeable layer thickness and Topographic slope. Five different categories are developed to classify each alternative based on the suitability of the site for a solid waste disposal area. As a result, each site is ranked according to the contamination risks for groundwater resources. The proposed technique is applied to the District of Torbali near Izmir, Turkey to determine the most appropriate solid waste disposal site location. The Torbali application is implemented by using a GIS database developed for the area. Based on the results of this application, the best alternative solid waste disposal site for Torbali is selected to be located in the northern portions of the city where the groundwater table is deep, the permeability is low and the topographic slope is mild.     

Case studies in organic contaminant hydrogeology

The effective management of domestic solid waste and hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste is a major problem in the area of environmental geology and water sciences over the world. This series of case studies of organic contaminants from both solid and hazardous waste disposal facilities provides examples of these problems. The facilities were investigated to determine risks and liabilities before acquisition, to determine the site hydrogeologic conditions for design of appropriate groundwater monitoring plans, and/or to determine the potential for groundwater contamination. The results of these studies and investigations by Waste Management Inc. (WMI) and its consultants have shown certain relationships in the distribution of organic pollutants to the different geologic and hydrogeologic charac teristics of each facility. In each of the case studies, all 129 priority pollutants were analyzed in private wells and/or monitoring wells at the request of regulatory agencies. The 31 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) of the priority pollutant list were the majority of the organic compounds detected and these data are evaluated in each case study. The case studies are on disposal facilities located in glacial tills, carbonaceous weathered clay soils, weathered shale, limestone bedrock, dolomite bedrock, and alluvial and sedimentary deposits. A brief discussion of groundwater quality impacts and remedial measures also is included.Presented at the Second Annual Canadian/American Conference on Hydrogeology: Hazardous Wastes in Ground Water—A Soluble Dilemma. Banff, Alberta, Canada, June 26, 1985.     

Environmental geological assessment of a solid waste disposal site: a case study in Sivas, Turkey

The selection of the disposal site is probably the most important step in the development of solid waste management. In site selection, geology plays a determining role. This study evaluates the characteristics of the environment on the basis of the geological, hydrogeological and geo-engineering properties of the solid waste site of the Sivas city, Turkey. The area is underlain by the Oligocene-Miocene rocks which have limited aquifer properties. Thin Quaternary alluvium and soil cover overlie the Oligo-Miocene rocks, which are represented as well graded sand and inorganic silt of low plasticity. The Quaternary alluvium and soil cover are classified as inorganic clays having a low plasticity and the permeability varies from 1.2×10⁻⁶ to 3.11×10⁻⁶ m/s. These values are much higher than 1×10⁻⁸ m/s, which is accepted for waste disposal standards. Seepage waters have a potential to pollute the ground water and the Kızılırmak River, which is 500 m to the southwest of the waste disposal area and because the disposal site is close to the river, the potential for flash flooding poses a high pollution risk. The waste disposal area must be covered by clay layers or an impervious artificial membrane. In addition, seepage must be controlled and removed from the site.     

Importance of geologic characterization of potential low-level radioactive waste disposal sites

Using the example of the Geff Alternative Site in Wayne County, Illinois, for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste, this paper demonstrates, from a policy and public opinion perspective, the importance of accurately determining site stratigraphy. Complete and accurate characterization of geologic materials and determination of site stratigraphy at potential low-level waste disposal sites provides the frame-work for subsequent hydrologic and geochemical investigations. Proper geologic characterization is critical to determine the long-term site stability and the extent of interactions of groundwater between the site and its surroundings. Failure to adequately characterize site stratigraphy can lead to the incorrect evaluation of the geology of a site, which in turn may result in a lack of public confidence. A potential problem of lack of public confidence was alleviated as a result of the resolution and proper definition of the Geff Alternative Site stratigraphy. The integrity of the investigation was not questioned and public perception was not compromised.     

核废物处置场岩体断裂的遥感分析

本文利用ＴＭ和ＳＩＲ－Ａ遥感图像对甘肃北山区４个预选的核废物处置场址的岩体断裂进行了解释和编图。并运用线性构造统计分析方法，对岩体断裂发育程度进行了统计分析。     

Engineering geological evaluation of geological barrier rocks at landfills and repositories

 A site specific evaluation of geological barriers is required for landfills and waste repositories. The waste-repository-rock system has to be taken into consideration for this. Since the geotechnical barrier in conjunction with geological barriers contributes considerably to long-term isolation of the harmful substances from the biosphere, it is absolutely necessary to use engineering geology and hydrogeological methods for a quantitative assessment of the barrier effect of the host rock and the geological environment. For a waste disposal mine, the load-bearing capacity of the rock, the protective properties of the surrounding rock formations and the geological stability of the area are important factors in a safety analysis, of which the geotechnical stability analysis is an important part. Such an analysis comprises an engineering geological study of the site, laboratory and in situ experiments and model calculations, long-term monitoring, and special geological and geochemical investigations. Existing geomechanical modelling techniques provide a useful tool to perform barrier integrity calculations and to design an underground disposal mine. As an example, the barrier performance of the rock salt of the Gorleben salt dome is demonstrated using various safety indicators. Received: 3 January 1997 · Accepted: 29 January 1997     

Geologic uncertainty in a regulatory environment: An example from the potential Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository site

Regulatory geologists are concerned with predicting the performance of sites proposed for waste disposal or for remediation of existing pollution problems. Geologic modeling of these sites requires large-scale expansion of knowledge obtained from very limited sampling. This expansion induces considerable uncertainty into the geologic models of rock properties that are required for modeling the predicted performance of the site.One method for assessing this uncertainty is through nonparametric geostatistical simulation. Simulation can produce a series of equiprobable models of a rock property of interest. Each model honors measured values at sampled locations, and each can be constructed to emulate both the univariate histogram and the spatial covariance structure of the measured data. Computing a performance model for a number of geologic simulations allows evaluation of the effects of geologic uncertainty. A site may be judged acceptable if the number of failures to meet a particular performance criterion produced by these computations is sufficiently low. A site that produces too many failures may be either unacceptable or simply inadequately described.The simulation approach to addressing geologic uncertainty is being applied to the potential high-level nuclear waste repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. Preliminary geologic models of unsaturated permeability have been created that reproduce observed statistical properties reasonably well. A spread of unsaturated groundwater travel times has been computed that reflects the variability of those geologic models. Regions within the simulated models exhibiting the greatest variability among multiple runs are candidates for obtaining the greatest reduction in uncertainty through additional site characterization.     

宁安盆地航空伽马能谱特征及铀成矿远景预测

利用最新的航空伽马能谱数据,分析了宁安盆地以及501铀矿床的航空伽马能谱特征。并利用铀转换参数(初始铀、活性铀、铀迁移系数)分析了本区的铀源条件,结合盆地基底、构造、岩相岩性、水文地质等成矿条件进行了铀成矿分析和远景预测。最终预测了3处铀成矿远景区段,对本区进一步找矿具有指导意义。     

紫坪铺库区断层分布规律统计分析

定量描述地质构造的分布规律对诸如核废料地质处置、边坡稳定性分析、采矿工程以及水利水电工程都具有十分重要的意义。本文根据紫坪铺水库工程区域地质图,通过提取断层信息的方法,获得了断层分布图。对紫坪铺水利枢纽工程库区内尺度跨越3个数量级、共126条断层进行了统计分析,获得了断层长度-数量间的幂律关系,即N(r)~r-D。并通过分段线性拟合的方法,计算了幂指数的值。发现当断层长度r2.5km时,幂指数D=0.32;而当断层长度r2.5km时,幂指数D=1.58。该幂律关系对推演更小或更大规模断层分布具有重要意义。     

Safety concept and criteria for hazardous waste sites

The problem of waste disposal in Germany has been solved by using a combination of above-ground and underground disposal. Site selection criteria and precise criteria for the performance assessment of various types of waste disposal are available. In view of long-term safety of disposal, it is necessary to include geological and hydrogeological viewpoints in addition to purely engineering viewpoints.

In particular, the geotechnical site-specific safety assessment is described, as defined by the government in “Technical Regulations on Wastes” (TA-Abfall) in the section “Underground Disposal”. This safety assessment must cover the entire system comprising waste, cavern/mine and surrounding rock. For this purpose geo-mechanical models have to be developed.

According to the multi-barrier principle, the geological setting must be able to contribute significantly to isolation of the waste over longer periods. The assessment of the integrity of the geological barrier can only be performed by making calculations with validated geomechanical models.

Various engineering geological data are required for the selection of a site, for the design and construction of a repository, and for a safety analysis for the post-operational phase. These data can only be attained by the execution of a comprehensive site-specific geomechanical exploration and investigation program. The planning and design of an underground repository in rock salt layers are described, as an example for the various steps of this type of safety assessment.     

A comparative study of waste landfill disposal in different countries

This study draws attention to the fact that natural processes can mobilize thallium （Tl）, a highly toxic metal, which may enter the food chain with severe health impacts on the local human population. A rural area having independent Tl mineralization in southwestern Guizhou, China, was chosen for a pilot study. Tl contents of soils extracted by HNO3 in the study area range from 35-165 mg/kg in soils from the mining area, 14-78 mg/kg in alluvial deposits downstream, and 〈0.2-0.5 mg/kg in soils from the background area. Tl contents in ammonium acetate EDTA-extracted fraction are 0.013-1.3 mg/kg, less than 1% of concentration in HNO3-extracted fraction. The amounts of Tl in NH4Ac-extracted fraction were thought to be more exchangeable and bioavailable, i.e., immediately available to plants and/or available to plant roots over a period of years. Tl concentration in crops exhibits species-dependent preferences. The enrichment of Tl in edible crop species decreases in the following order： green cabbage〉chili〉Chinese cabbage〉rice〉com. The highest level of Tl in green cabbage is up to 500 mg/kg （DW）, surpassing the values of Tl in the soils （13-59 mg/kg）. The enrichment factor for TI in green cabbage is up to 1-10 when considering the HNO3-extracted Tl, but the factor highly rises to 30-1300 while considering the NH4Ac-extracted Tl. The average daily uptake of Tl by the local villagers through consumption of locally planted crops was estimated at about 1.9 mg per person, which is 50 times the daily ingestion from the Tl-free background area.     

高放废物地质处置系统核素迁移模型研究

高放废物地质处置系统核素迁移研究是高放废物安全处理和处置的重要内容。从整个系统的角度出发,把高放废物地质处置系统核素迁移过程分为三种模式:工程屏障中的释放—扩散模型;地质屏障中的对流—弥散模型和在生物圈中的分区传递模型。在分区传递模型中利用转移系数描述核素在各分区之间的迁移。通过对每种模型核素迁移机理的分析得出概化模型,并给出了相应的数学描述。     

随钻脉冲中子-伽马密度测井响应数值模拟

随钻过程中采用D-T可控中子源和2个NaI晶体探测器系统,记录两个探测器的非弹性散射和俘获伽马射线,采用俘获伽马计数比值进行含氢指数校正后,建立非弹性散射伽马计数比和地层密度的响应关系,从而实现脉冲中子-伽马密度测井.利用蒙特卡罗方法模拟地层条件下非弹性散射和俘获伽马分布,得到非弹伽马计数与地层密度和含氢指数都有关,但近、远探测器俘获伽马计数比反映含氢指数灵敏度高,利用其对含氢指数校正后就可以得到非弹伽马计数与地层密度的关系;通过二元回归方法得出地层密度校正后的响应公式,校正后视密度和真密度值相差很小.研究结果表明,在随钻过程中利用脉冲中子伽马测井方法可以确定地层密度.      

The triple multimineral barrier for hazardous waste encapsulation

According to the present state of science and technology, the ultimate disposal of critical substances such as chemotoxic wastes, metal slurries, radioactive substances, etc., as well as houshold waste, necessitates enclosure within a multi-barrier system. The geology of the disposal site plays an important role. The site itself defines the geological barrier which has to fulfill at least two requirements: namely low permeability and retention, respectively retardation qualities. These can be achieved to a certain degree either by clay minerals, zeolites or an artificial product such as active coal. In order to increase the imperviousness and retardation potentials of e.g. clayey geological barriers, technical barriers have to be added. One of them and the most important is the mineralogic barrier. It consists of clay dominated layers and according to the multimineral barrier concept the different layers have to meet different functions.     

Using data from natural environments to improve models of uranium speciation in groundwaters

It is essential that computer-based models used in the safety assessment of radioactive waste repositories accurately represent the processes occurring in real field systems. Confidence in long-term predictions of radionuclide migration will then depend upon the completeness of data available, particularly those obtained from the disposal site, and correct implementation of the model. The study of natural geochemical systems provides information on the adequacy of the underlying “generic” database and enhances our understanding of the transport mechanisms which form the basis of performance assessment. This paper concentrates on speciation-solubility modelling and describes four natural occurrences of uranium, each of which displays a different facet of uranium migration behaviour. The attributes of each site and the means by which uranium is immobilised are described. Retardation is highly species specific and this is illustrated through the use of site data in equilibrium speciation and coupled chemical transport calculations. Oxidation of U(IV) to U(VI) species promotes leaching of uranium ore at all the locations studied, emphasising the need to ensure that reducing conditions persist in a repository dominated by its actinide inventory.