Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is \(113\pm 1.6~\mbox{days}\) while we detected much longer periodicities (\(327\pm 13\), \(312 \pm 11\), and \(256\pm 8~\mbox{days}\)) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding \(55\pm 0.7~\mbox{days}\) during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a \(113\pm 1.3~\mbox{days}\) period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only \(31\pm 0.2~\mbox{days}\) for Cycle 22 and \(72\pm 1.3~\mbox{days}\) for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was \(327\pm 13~\mbox{days}\) during Solar Cycle 23.     

GONG p-Mode Parameters Through Two Solar Cycles

We investigate the parameters of global solar p-mode oscillations, namely damping width \(\Gamma\), amplitude \(A\), mean squared velocity \(\langle v^{2}\rangle\), energy \(E\), and energy supply rate \(\mathrm{d}E/\mathrm{d}t\), derived from two solar cycles’ worth (1996?–?2018) of Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) time series for harmonic degrees \(l=0\,\mbox{--}\,150\). We correct for the effect of fill factor, apparent solar radius, and spurious jumps in the mode amplitudes. We find that the amplitude of the activity-related changes of \(\Gamma\) and \(A\) depends on both frequency and harmonic degree of the modes, with the largest variations of \(\Gamma\) for modes with \(2400~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\le\nu\le3300~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\) and \(31\le l \le60\) with a minimum-to-maximum variation of \(26.6\pm0.3\%\) and of \(A\) for modes with \(2400~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\le\nu\le 3300~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\) and \(61\le l \le100\) with a minimum-to-maximum variation of \(27.4\pm0.4\%\). The level of correlation between the solar radio flux \(F_{10.7}\) and mode parameters also depends on mode frequency and harmonic degree. As a function of mode frequency, the mode amplitudes are found to follow an asymmetric Voigt profile with \(\nu_{\text{max}}=3073.59\pm0.18~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\). From the mode parameters, we calculate physical mode quantities and average them over specific mode frequency ranges. In this way, we find that the mean squared velocities \(\langle v^{2}\rangle\) and energies \(E\) of p modes are anticorrelated with the level of activity, varying by \(14.7\pm0.3\%\) and \(18.4\pm0.3\%\), respectively, and that the mode energy supply rates show no significant correlation with activity. With this study we expand previously published results on the temporal variation of solar p-mode parameters. Our results will be helpful to future studies of the excitation and damping of p modes, i.e., the interplay between convection, magnetic field, and resonant acoustic oscillations.     

CCD <Emphasis Type="Italic">UBV</Emphasis> photometric study of five open clusters—Dolidze 36, NGC 6728, NGC 6800, NGC 7209, and Platais 1

In this study, we present CCD UBV photometry of poorly studied open star clusters, Dolidze 36, NGC 6728, NGC 6800, NGC 7209, and Platais 1, located in the first and second Galactic quadrants. Observations were obtained with T100, the 1-m telescope of the TÜB?TAK National Observatory. Using photometric data, we determined several astrophysical parameters such as reddening, distance, metallicity and ages and from them, initial mass functions, integrated magnitudes and colours. We took into account the proper motions of the observed stars to calculate the membership probabilities. The colour excesses and metallicities were determined independently using two-colour diagrams. After obtaining the colour excesses of the clusters Dolidze 36, NGC 6728, NGC 6800, NGC 7209, and Platais 1 as \(0.19\pm0.06\), \(0.15\pm0.05\), \(0.32\pm0.05\), \(0.12\pm 0.04\), and \(0.43\pm0.06\) mag, respectively, the metallicities are found to be \(0.00\pm0.09\), \(0.02\pm0.11\), \(0.03\pm0.07\), \(0.01\pm0.08\), and \(0.01\pm0.08\) dex, respectively. Furthermore, using these parameters, distance moduli and age of the clusters were also calculated from colour-magnitude diagrams simultaneously using PARSEC theoretical models. The distances to the clusters Dolidze 36, NGC 6728, NGC 6800, NGC 7209, and Platais 1 are \(1050\pm90\), \(1610\pm190\), \(1210\pm150\), \(1060\pm90\), and \(1710\pm250\) pc, respectively, while corresponding ages are \(400\pm100\), \(750\pm150\), \(400\pm100\), \(600\pm100\), and \(175\pm50\) Myr, respectively. Our results are compatible with those found in previous studies. The mass function of each cluster is derived. The slopes of the mass functions of the open clusters range from 1.31 to 1.58, which are in agreement with Salpeter’s initial mass function. We also found integrated absolute magnitudes varying from ?4.08 to ?3.40 for the clusters.     

Stellar parameters of the two binary systems: HIP 14075 and HIP 14230

We present the stellar parameters of the individual components of the two old close binary systems HIP 14075 and HIP 14230 using synthetic photometric analysis. These parameters are accurately calculated based on the best match between the synthetic photometric results within three different photometric systems with the observed photometry of the entire system. From the synthetic photometry, we derive the masses and radii of HIP 14075 as \({\mathcal {M}}^A=0.99\pm 0.19 \mathcal {M_\odot }\), \(R_{A}=0.877\pm 0.08 R_\odot \) for the primary and \({\mathcal {M}}^B=0.96\pm 0.15 \mathcal {M_\odot }\), \(R_{B}=0.821\pm 0.07 R_\odot \) for the secondary, and of HIP 14230 as \({\mathcal {M}}^A=1.18\pm 0.22 \mathcal {M_\odot }\), \(R_{A}=1.234\pm 0.05 R_\odot \) for the primary and \({\mathcal {M}}^B=0.84\pm 0.12 \mathcal {M_\odot }\) , \(R_{B}=0.820\pm 0.05 R_\odot \) for the secondary. Both systems depend on Gaia parallaxes. Based on the positions of the components of the two systems on a theoretical Hertzsprung–Russell diagram, we find that the age of HIP 14075 is \(11.5\pm 2.0\) Gyr and of HIP 14230 is \(3.5\pm 1.5\) Gyr. Our analysis reveals that both systems are old close binary systems (\(\approx > 4\) Gyr). Finally, the positions of the components of both the systems on the stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones are discussed.     

Fourier Power Spectra of Solar Noise Storms

We analyzed three noise storms recorded on 200?–?400 MHz Trieste Callisto radio spectra on 2 July 2012, 8 July 2012, and 16 July 2012 by the Fourier method. We divided intervals of the noise storms into five-minute intervals, and in these intervals we computed the mean Fourier spectra as a function of the wave numbers in the frequency and height-scale spaces. We found that these Fourier spectra, where the spectrum from the quiet-activity interval was subtracted, are power-law spectra. The mean power-law index of these spectra in the range \(\ln(k_{z}) = [1.8, 2.9]\) (where \(k_{z}\) is the wave number in the height-scale space) is \(-1.7\pm0.14\), \(-1.6\pm0.14\), and \(-1.5 \pm0.12\) for the 2 July 2012, the 8 July 2012, and the 16 July 2012 noise storms, respectively. It appears that as the number of Type-I bursts in the studied interval increases, the power-law index becomes closer to \(-5/3\); this is known as the Kolmogorov spectral index. The power-law index of the noise storms is very similar to that of the narrowband dm-spikes found in our previous studies. Furthermore, we found a break in the power spectra at \(\ln(k_{z}) \approx2.9\), and the mean power-law index values above this break are \(-2.9\pm0.46\), \(-3.1\pm0.65\), and \(-3.4\pm0.98\), respectively.     

The Pleiades apex and its kinematical structure

A study of cluster characteristics and internal kinematical structure of the middle-aged Pleiades open star cluster is presented. The individual star apexes and various cluster kinematical parameters including the velocity ellipsoid parameters are determined using both Hipparcos and Gaia data. Modern astrometric parameters were taken from the Gaia Data Release 1 (DR1) in combination with the Radial Velocity Experiment Fifth Data Release (DR5). The necessary set of parameters including parallaxes, proper motions and radial velocities are used for \(n=17\) stars from Gaia DR1+RAVE DR5 and for \(n=19\) stars from the Hipparcos catalog using SIMBAD data base. Single stars are used to improve accuracy by eliminating orbital movements. RAVE DR5 measurements were taken only for the stars with the radial velocity errors not exceeding \(2~\mbox{km}/\mbox{s}\). For the Pleiades stars taken from Gaia, we found mean heliocentric distance as \(136.8 \pm 6.4\) pc, and the apex position is calculated as: \(A_{CP}=92^{\circ }.52\pm 1^{\circ }.72\), \(D_{CP}=-42^{\circ }.28\pm 2^{\circ }.56\) by the convergent point method and \(A_{0}=95^{\circ }.59\pm 2^{\circ }.30\) and \(D_{0}=-50^{\circ }.90\pm 2^{\circ }.04\) using AD-diagram method (\(n=17\) in both cases). The results are compared with those obtained historically before the Gaia mission era.     

Photometric study of three ultrashort-period contact binaries

We carried out high-precision photometric observations of three eclipsing ultrashort-period contact binaries (USPCBs). Theoretical models were fitted to the light curves by means of the Wilson-Devinney code. The solutions suggest that the three targets have evolved to a contact phase. The photometric results are as follows: (a) 1SWASP?J030749.87?365201.7, \(q=0.439\pm0.003\), \(f=0.0\pm3.6\%\); (b) 1SWASP?J213252.93?441822.6, \(q=0.560\pm0.003\), \(f=14.2\pm1.9\%\); (c) 1SWASP?J200059.78+054408.9, \(q=0.436\pm0.008\), \(f=58.4\pm1.8\%\). The light curves show O’Connell effects, which can be modeled by the assumed cool spots. The cool spots models are strongly supported by the night-to-night variations in the \(I\)-band light curves of 1SWASP?J030749.87?365201.7. For a comparative study, we collected the whole set of 28 well-studied USPCBs with \(P < 0.24\) day. Thus, we found that most of them (17 of 28) are in shallow contact (i.e. fill-out factors \(f<20\%\)). Only four USPCBs have deep fill-out factors (i.e. \(f>50\%\)). Generally, contact binaries with deep fill-out factors are going to merge, but it is believed that USPCBs have just evolved to a contact phase. Hence, the deep USPCB 1SWASP?J200059.78+054408.9 seems to be a contradiction, making it very interesting. Particularly, 1SWASP?J030749.87?365201.7 is a zero contact binary in thermal equilibrium, implying that it should be a turn-off sample as predicted by the thermal relaxation oscillation (TRO) theory.     

Statistical Properties of Ribbon Evolution and Reconnection Electric Fields in Eruptive and Confined Flares

A statistical study of the chromospheric ribbon evolution in H\(\alpha\) two-ribbon flares was performed. The data set consists of 50 confined (62%) and eruptive (38%) flares that occurred from June 2000 to June 2015. The flares were selected homogeneously over the H\(\alpha\) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) classes, with an emphasis on including powerful confined flares and weak eruptive flares. H\(\alpha\) filtergrams from the Kanzelhöhe Observatory in combination with Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms were used to derive the ribbon separation, the ribbon-separation velocity, the magnetic-field strength, and the reconnection electric field. We find that eruptive flares reveal statistically larger ribbon separation and higher ribbon-separation velocities than confined flares. In addition, the ribbon separation of eruptive flares correlates with the GOES SXR flux, whereas no clear dependence was found for confined flares. The maximum ribbon-separation velocity is not correlated with the GOES flux, but eruptive flares reveal on average a higher ribbon-separation velocity (by ≈?10 km?s^?1). The local reconnection electric field of confined (\(cc=0.50 \pm0.02\)) and eruptive (\(cc=0.77 \pm0.03\)) flares correlates with the GOES flux, indicating that more powerful flares involve stronger reconnection electric fields. In addition, eruptive flares with higher electric-field strengths tend to be accompanied by faster coronal mass ejections.     

Corotating Shock Waves and the Solar-wind Source of Energetic Ion bundances: Power Laws in $$/Q$Q$

We find that element abundances in energetic ions accelerated by shock waves formed at corotating interaction regions (CIRs) mirror the abundances of the solar wind modified by a decreasing power-law dependence on the mass-to-charge ratio \(A\)/\(Q\) of the ions. This behavior is similar in character to the well-known power-law dependence on \(A\)/\(Q\) of abundances in large gradual solar energetic particles (SEP). The CIR ions reflect the pattern of \(A\)/\(Q\), with \(Q\) values of the source plasma temperature or freezing-in temperature of 1.0?–?1.2 MK typical of the fast solar wind in this case. Thus the relative ion abundances in CIRs are of the form \((A\mbox{/}Q)^{a}\), where \(a\) is nearly always negative and evidently decreases with distance from the shocks, which usually begin beyond 1 AU. For one unusual historic CIR event where \(a \approx 0\), the reverse shock wave of the CIR seems to occur at 1 AU, and these abundances of the energetic ions become a direct proxy for the abundances of the fast solar wind.     

Subsurface Zonal and Meridional Flow During Cycles 23 and 24

We study the solar-cycle variation of subsurface flows from the surface to a depth of 16 Mm. We have used ring-diagram analysis to analyze Dopplergrams obtained with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) Dynamics Program, the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument. We combined the zonal and meridional flows from the three data sources and scaled the flows derived from MDI and GONG to match those from HMI observations. In this way, we derived their temporal variation in a consistent manner for Solar Cycles 23 and 24. We have corrected the measured flows for systematic effects that vary with disk positions. Using time-depth slices of the corrected subsurface flows, we derived the amplitudes and times of the extrema of the fast and slow zonal and meridional flows during Cycles 23 and 24 at every depth and latitude. We find an average difference between maximum and minimum amplitudes of \(8.6 \pm0.4~\mbox{m}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) for the zonal flows and \(7.9 \pm0.3~\mbox{m}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) for the meridional flows associated with Cycle 24 averaged over a depth range from 2 to 12 Mm. The corresponding values derived from GONG data alone are \(10.5 \pm0.3~\mbox{m}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) for the zonal and \(10.8 \pm0.3~\mbox{m}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) for the meridional flow. For Cycle 24, the flow patterns are precursors of the magnetic activity. The timing difference between the occurrence of the flow pattern and the magnetic one increases almost linearly with increasing latitude. For example, the fast zonal and meridional flow appear \(2.1 \pm 0.6\) years and \(2.5\pm 0.6\) years, respectively, before the magnetic pattern at \(30^{\circ}\) latitude in the northern hemisphere, while in the southern hemisphere, the differences are \(3.2 \pm 1.2\) years and \(2.6 \pm 0.6\) years. The flow patterns of Cycle 25 are present and have reached \(30^{\circ}\) latitude. The amplitude differences of Cycle 25 are about 22% smaller than those of Cycle 24, but are comparable to those of Cycle 23. Moreover, polynomial fits of meridional flows suggest that equatorward meridional flows (counter-cells) might exist at about \(80^{\circ}\) latitude except during the declining phase of the solar cycle.     

Photospheric Shear Flows in Solar Active Regions and Their Relation to Flare Occurrence

Solar active regions (ARs) that produce major flares typically exhibit strong plasma shear flows around photospheric magnetic polarity inversion lines (MPILs). It is therefore important to quantitatively measure such photospheric shear flows in ARs for a better understanding of their relation to flare occurrence. Photospheric flow fields were determined by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method to a large data set of 2548 coaligned pairs of AR vector magnetograms with 12-min separation over the period 2012?–?2016. From each AR flow-field map, three shear-flow parameters were derived corresponding to the mean (\(\langle S\rangle \)), maximum (\(S_{\mathrm{max}}\)) and integral (\(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\)) shear-flow speeds along strong-gradient, strong-field MPIL segments. We calculated flaring rates within 24 h as a function of each shear-flow parameter and we investigated the relation between the parameters and the waiting time (\(\tau \)) until the next major flare (class M1.0 or above) after the parameter observation. In general, it is found that the larger \(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\) an AR has, the more likely it is for the AR to produce flares within 24 h. It is also found that among ARs which produce major flares, if one has a larger value of \(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\) then \(\tau \) generally gets shorter. These results suggest that large ARs with widespread and/or strong shear flows along MPILs tend to not only be more flare productive, but also produce major flares within 24 h or less.     

The radio and $\gamma$-ray variability analysis of S5 0716+714

We have studied the variability of S5 0716+714 at radio 15 GHz and \(\gamma\)-ray band using three different methods. A possible periodicity of \(P_{15~\text{GHz}}=266.0\pm11.5\) and \(P_{\gamma}=344.0 \pm16.4\) days are obtained for radio 15 GHz and \(\gamma\)-ray light curves, respectively. The variability may be related to the intrinsically emission mechanism. The difference between the variability timescales of radio 15 GHz and \(\gamma \)-ray may be due to that the emission of radio 15 GHz is produced via the synchrotron process, while the \(\gamma\)-ray is produced by both the SSC and EC processes.     

Photometric Study of Comet C/2014 S2 (PANSTARRS) After the Perihelion

We analyzed the BVR photometry of comet C/2014 S2 obtained between March and June 2016, in observatories installed in Europe and the United States. Using the Lomb–Scargle periodogram, we found that the most probable periodicity deduced from the V-band magnitudes is 2.70 days, suggesting that it is the period of rotation of the nucleus of this comet is \(2.70 \pm 0.07\) days or \(68 \pm 2\) h, with a peak-to-peak light curve amplitude of \(0.4 \pm 0.1\) magnitudes. We verify that the absolute magnitude \(H_0\) and the activity index n differ from each other when they are calculated from the visual or CCD magnitudes. Considering the absolute magnitude \(H_{v0}=\) 6.0, obtained from visual magnitudes, we estimate that the lower limit of nuclear radius is 1.3 km. Analyzing the variation of magnitude R with the photometric aperture, we suggest that the coma of this object was in steady-state within the time limits of our observational interval. The coma had a mean color index B–V\(=0.79\pm 0.22\), which is typical of active comets. Additionally, we have shown that the use of a variable photometric aperture, linked to geocentric distance, is probably unnecessary for the comet PANSTARRS .     

Local stellar kinematics from RAVE data—VIII. Effects of the Galactic disc perturbations on stellar orbits of red clump stars

We aim to probe the dynamic structure of the extended Solar neighborhood by calculating the radial metallicity gradients from orbit properties, which are obtained for axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric potential models, of red clump (RC) stars selected from the RAdial Velocity Experiment’s Fourth Data Release. Distances are obtained by assuming a single absolute magnitude value in near-infrared, i.e. \(M_{Ks}=-1.54\pm0.04\) mag, for each RC star. Stellar orbit parameters are calculated by using the potential functions: (i) for the MWPotential2014 potential, (ii) for the same potential with perturbation functions of the Galactic bar and transient spiral arms. The stellar age is calculated with a method based on Bayesian statistics. The radial metallicity gradients are evaluated based on the maximum vertical distance (\(z_{max}\)) from the Galactic plane and the planar eccentricity (\(e_{p}\)) of RC stars for both of the potential models. The largest radial metallicity gradient in the \(0< z_{max} \leq0.5\) kpc distance interval is \(-0.065\pm0.005~\mbox{dex}\,\mbox{kpc}^{-1}\) for a subsample with \(e_{p}\leq0.1\), while the lowest value is \(-0.014\pm0.006~\mbox{dex}\,\mbox{kpc}^{-1}\) for the subsample with \(e_{p}\leq0.5\). We find that at \(z_{max}>1\) kpc, the radial metallicity gradients have zero or positive values and they do not depend on \(e_{p}\) subsamples. There is a large radial metallicity gradient for thin disc, but no radial gradient found for thick disc. Moreover, the largest radial metallicity gradients are obtained where the outer Lindblad resonance region is effective. We claim that this apparent change in radial metallicity gradients in the thin disc is a result of orbital perturbation originating from the existing resonance regions.     

Establishing the Galactic Centre distance using VVV Bulge RR Lyrae variables

This study’s objective was to exploit infrared VVV (VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea) photometry for high latitude RRab stars to establish an accurate Galactic Centre distance. RRab candidates were discovered and reaffirmed (\(n=4194\)) by matching \(K_{s}\) photometry with templates via \(\chi ^{2}\) minimization, and contaminants were reduced by ensuring targets adhered to a strict period-amplitude (\(\Delta K_{s}\)) trend and passed the Elorietta et al. classifier. The distance to the Galactic Centre was determined from a high latitude Bulge subsample (\(|b|>4^{\circ}\), \(R_{\mathit{GC}}=8.30 \pm 0.36\) kpc, random uncertainty is relatively negligible), and importantly, the comparatively low color-excess and uncrowded location mitigated uncertainties tied to the extinction law, the magnitude-limited nature of the analysis, and photometric contamination. Circumventing those problems resulted in a key uncertainty being the \(M_{K_{s}}\) relation, which was derived using LMC RRab stars (\(M_{K_{s}}=-(2.66\pm 0.06) \log {P}-(1.03\pm 0.06)\), \((J-K_{s})_{0}=(0.31\pm 0.04) \log {P} + (0.35\pm 0.02)\), assuming \(\mu _{0,\mathit{LMC}}=18.43\)). The Galactic Centre distance was not corrected for the cone-effect. Lastly, a new distance indicator emerged as brighter overdensities in the period-magnitude-amplitude diagrams analyzed, which arise from blended RRab and red clump stars. Blending may thrust faint extragalactic variables into the range of detectability.     

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21?–?24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about \(140 \pm30\) solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of \(135 \pm25\). This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near \(2025.2 \pm1.5\) year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.     

Discovery of GeV gamma-ray emission from the LMC B0443-6657 with the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Fermi</Emphasis> Large Area Telescope

We report the discovery of gamma-ray detection from the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) B0443-6657 using the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. LMC B0443-6657 is a flat-spectrum radio source, possibly associated with a supernova remnant in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC N4). Employing the LAT data of 8 years, our results show a significant excess (\(>9.4\sigma \)) of gamma rays in the range of 0.2–100 GeV above the gamma-ray background. A power-law function is found to adequately describe the 0.2–\(100\mbox{ GeV}\)\(\gamma \)-ray spectrum, which yields a photon flux of \(3.27\pm 0.53\ \text{photon}\,\mbox{cm}^{2}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) with a photon index of \(2.35\pm 0.11\), corresponding to an isotropic gamma-ray luminosity of \(5.3\times 10^{40}~\mbox{erg}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\). The hadronic model predicts a low X-ray and TeV flux while the leptonic model predicts an observable flux in these two energy bands. The follow-up observations of the LMC B0443-6657 in X-ray or TeV band would distinguish the radiation models of gamma rays from this region.     

Dust color temperature distribution of two FIR cavities at IRIS and AKARI maps

By systematically searching the region of far infrared loops, we found a number of huge cavity-like dust structures at \(60\,\mu \hbox {m}\) and \(100\,\mu \hbox {m}\) IRIS maps. By checking these with AKARI maps (\(90\,\mu \hbox {m}\) and \(140\,\mu \hbox {m}\)), two new cavity-like structures (sizes \(\sim \) \( 2.7\,\hbox {pc} \times 0.8\,\hbox {pc}\) and \(\sim \) \( 1.8\,\hbox {pc} \times 1\,\hbox {pc}\)) located at R.A. (\(\hbox {J}2000)=14^{h}41^{m}23^{s}\) and Dec. \((\hbox {J}2000)=-64^{\circ }04^{\prime }17^{{\prime }{\prime }}\) and R.A. \((\hbox {J}2000)=05^{h}05^{m}35^{s}\) and Dec. \((\hbox {J}2000)=-\,69^{\circ }35^{\prime } 25^{{\prime }{\prime }}\) were selected for the study. The difference in the average dust color temperatures calculated using IRIS and AKARI maps of the cavity candidates were found to be \(3.2\pm 0.9\,\hbox {K}\) and \(4.1\pm 1.2\,\hbox {K}\), respectively. Interestingly, the longer wavelength AKARI map gives larger values of dust color temperature than that of the shorter wavelength IRIS maps. Possible explanation of the results will be presented.     

$$M_{\bullet } - \sigma $$ relation in spherical systems

To investigate the \(M_\bullet -\sigma \) relation, we consider realistic elliptical galaxy profiles that are taken to follow a single power-law density profile given by \(\rho (r) = \rho _{0}(r/ r_{0})^{-\gamma }\) or the Nuker intensity profile. We calculate the density using Abel’s formula in the latter case by employing the derived stellar potential; in both cases. We derive the distribution function f(E) of the stars in the presence of the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at the center and hence compute the line-of-sight (LoS) velocity dispersion as a function of radius. For the typical range of values for masses of SMBH, we obtain \(M_{\bullet } \propto \sigma ^{p}\) for different profiles. An analytical relation \(p = (2\gamma + 6)/(2 + \gamma )\) is found which is in reasonable agreement with observations (for \(\gamma = 0.75{-}1.4\), \(p = 3.6{-}5.3\)). Assuming that a proportionality relation holds between the black hole mass and bulge mass, \(M_{\bullet } =f M_\mathrm{b}\), and applying this to several galaxies, we find the individual best fit values of p as a function of f; also by minimizing \(\chi ^{2}\), we find the best fit global p and f. For Nuker profiles, we find that \(p = 3.81 \pm 0.004\) and \(f = (1.23 \pm 0.09)\times 10^{-3}\) which are consistent with the observed ranges.     

An Event-Based Verification Scheme for the Real-Time Flare Detection System at Kanzelhöhe Observatory

In the framework of the Space Situational Awareness program of the European Space Agency (ESA/SSA), an automatic flare detection system was developed at Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO). The system has been in operation since mid-2013. The event detection algorithm was upgraded in September 2017. All data back to 2014 was reprocessed using the new algorithm. In order to evaluate both algorithms, we apply verification measures that are commonly used for forecast validation. In order to overcome the problem of rare events, which biases the verification measures, we introduce a new event-based method. We divide the timeline of the H\(\upalpha\) observations into positive events (flaring period) and negative events (quiet period), independent of the length of each event. In total, 329 positive and negative events were detected between 2014 and 2016. The hit rate for the new algorithm reached 96% (just five events were missed) and a false-alarm ratio of 17%. This is a significant improvement of the algorithm, as the original system had a hit rate of 85% and a false-alarm ratio of 33%. The true skill score and the Heidke skill score both reach values of 0.8 for the new algorithm; originally, they were at 0.5. The mean flare positions are accurate within \({\pm}\,1\) heliographic degree for both algorithms, and the peak times improve from a mean difference of \(1.7\pm 2.9~\mbox{minutes}\) to \(1.3\pm 2.3~\mbox{minutes}\). The flare start times that had been systematically late by about 3 minutes as determined by the original algorithm, now match the visual inspection within \(-0.47\pm 4.10~\mbox{minutes}\).