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1.
We report observations of a white-light solar flare (SOL2010-06-12T00:57, M2.0) observed by the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). The HMI data give us the first space-based high-resolution imaging spectroscopy of a white-light flare, including continuum, Doppler, and magnetic signatures for the photospheric Fe i line at 6173.34 Å and its neighboring continuum. In the impulsive phase of the flare, a bright white-light kernel appears in each of the two magnetic footpoints. When the flare occurred, the spectral coverage of the HMI filtergrams (six equidistant samples spanning ±172 mÅ around nominal line center) encompassed the line core and the blue continuum sufficiently far from the core to eliminate significant Doppler crosstalk in the latter, which is otherwise a possibility for the extreme conditions in a white-light flare. RHESSI obtained complete hard X-ray and γ-ray spectra (this was the first γ-ray flare of Cycle 24). The Fe i line appears to be shifted to the blue during the flare but does not go into emission; the contrast is nearly constant across the line profile. We did not detect a seismic wave from this event. The HMI data suggest stepwise changes of the line-of-sight magnetic field in the white-light footpoints.  相似文献   

2.
The current fleet of space-based solar observatories offers us a wealth of opportunities to study solar flares over a range of wavelengths. Significant advances in our understanding of flare physics often come from coordinated observations between multiple instruments. Consequently, considerable efforts have been, and continue to be, made to coordinate observations among instruments (e.g. through the Max Millennium Program of Solar Flare Research). However, there has been no study to date that quantifies how many flares have been observed by combinations of various instruments. Here we describe a technique that retrospectively searches archival databases for flares jointly observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/EUV Variability Experiment (EVE – Multiple EUV Grating Spectrograph (MEGS)-A and -B, Hinode/(EUV Imaging Spectrometer, Solar Optical Telescope, and X-Ray Telescope), and Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). Out of the 6953 flares of GOES magnitude C1 or greater that we consider over the 6.5 years after the launch of SDO, 40 have been observed by 6 or more instruments simultaneously. Using each instrument’s individual rate of success in observing flares, we show that the numbers of flares co-observed by 3 or more instruments are higher than the number expected under the assumption that the instruments operated independently of one another. In particular, the number of flares observed by larger numbers of instruments is much higher than expected. Our study illustrates that these missions often acted in cooperation, or at least had aligned goals. We also provide details on an interactive widget (Solar Flare Finder), now available in SSWIDL, which allows a user to search for flaring events that have been observed by a chosen set of instruments. This provides access to a broader range of events in order to answer specific science questions. The difficulty in scheduling coordinated observations for solar-flare research is discussed with respect to instruments projected to begin operations during Solar Cycle 25, such as the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope, Solar Orbiter, and Parker Solar Probe.  相似文献   

3.
This work demonstrates the possibility of magnetic-field topology investigations using microwave polarimetric observations. We study a solar flare of GOES M1.7 class that occurred on 11 February, 2014. This flare revealed a clear signature of spatial inversion of the radio-emission polarization sign. We show that the observed polarization pattern can be explained by nonthermal gyrosynchrotron emission from the twisted magnetic structure. Using observations of the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager, Nobeyama Radio Observatory, Radio Solar Telescope Network, and Solar Dynamics Observatory, we have determined the parameters of nonthermal electrons and thermal plasma and identified the magnetic structure where the flare energy release occurred. To reconstruct the coronal magnetic field, we use nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) and potential magnetic-field approaches. Radio emission of nonthermal electrons is simulated by the GX Simulator code using the extrapolated magnetic field and the parameters of nonthermal electrons and thermal plasma inferred from the observations; the model radio maps and spectra are compared with observations. We have found that the potential-magnetic-field approach fails to explain the observed circular polarization pattern; on the other hand, the Stokes-\(V\) map is successfully explained by assuming nonthermal electrons to be distributed along the twisted magnetic structure determined by the NLFFF extrapolation approach. Thus, we show that the radio-polarization maps can be used for diagnosing the topology of the flare magnetic structures where nonthermal electrons are injected.  相似文献   

4.
The Multi-Application Solar Telescope (MAST) is a 50 cm off-axis Gregorian telescope that has recently become operational at the Udaipur Solar Observatory (USO). An imaging spectropolarimeter is being developed as one of the back-end instruments of MAST to gain a better understanding of the evolution and dynamics of solar magnetic and velocity fields. This system consists of a narrow-band filter and a polarimeter. The polarimeter includes a linear polarizer and two sets of liquid crystal variable retarders (LCVRs). The instrument is intended for simultaneous observations in the spectral lines 6173 Å and 8542 Å, which are formed in the photosphere and chromosphere, respectively. In this article, we present results from the characterization of the LCVRs for the spectral lines of interest and the response matrix of the polarimeter. We also present preliminary observations of an active region obtained using the spectropolarimeter. For verification purposes, we compare the Stokes observations of the active region obtained from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) with that of MAST observations in the spectral line 6173 Å. We find good agreement between the two observations, considering the fact that MAST observations are limited by seeing.  相似文献   

5.
In our previous articles (Chertok et al. in Solar Phys. 282, 175, 2013; Chertok et al. in Solar Phys. 290, 627, 2015), we presented a preliminary tool for the early diagnostics of the geoeffectiveness of solar eruptions based on the estimate of the total unsigned line-of-sight photospheric magnetic flux in accompanying extreme ultraviolet (EUV) arcades and dimmings. This tool was based on the analysis of eruptions observed during 1996?–?2005 with the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) and the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Empirical relationships were obtained to estimate the probable importance of upcoming space weather disturbances caused by an eruption, which just occurred, without data on the associated coronal mass ejections. In particular, it was possible to estimate the intensity of a non-recurrent geomagnetic storm (GMS) and Forbush decrease (FD), as well as their onset and peak times. After 2010?–?2011, data on solar eruptions are obtained with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We use relatively short intervals of overlapping EIT–AIA and MDI–HMI detailed observations, and additionally, a number of large eruptions over the next five years with the 12-hour cadence EIT images to adapt the SOHO diagnostic tool to SDO data. We show that the adopted brightness thresholds select practically the same areas of arcades and dimmings from the EIT 195 Å and AIA 193 Å image, with a cross-calibration factor of 3.6?–?5.8 (5.0?–?8.2) for the AIA exposure time of 2.0 s (2.9 s). We also find that for the same photospheric areas, the MDI line-of-sight magnetic flux systematically exceeds the HMI flux by a factor of 1.4. Based on these results, the empirical diagnostic relationships obtained from SOHO data are adjusted to SDO instruments. Examples of a post-diagnostics based on SDO data are presented. As before, the tool is applicable to non-recurrent GMSs and FDs caused by nearly central eruptions from active regions, provided that the southern component of the interplanetary magnetic field near the Earth is predominantly negative, which is not predicted by this tool.  相似文献   

6.
Some quiet-Sun days observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on-board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) during the time interval in 2010?–?2017 were used to continue our previous analyses reported by Didkovsky and Gurman (Solar Phys.289, 153, 2014a) and Didkovsky, Wieman, and Korogodina (Solar Phys.292, 32, 2017). The analysis consists of determining and comparing spatial spectral ratios (spectral densities over some time interval) from spatial (segmentation-cell length) power spectra. The ratios were compared using modeled compatible spatial frequencies for spectra from the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on-board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and from AIA images. With the new AIA data added to the EIT data we analyzed previously, the whole time interval from 1996 to 2017 reported here is approximately the length of two “standard” solar cycles (SC). The spectral ratios of segmentation-cell dimension structures show a significant and steady increase with no detected indication of SC-related returns to the values that characterize the SC minima. This increase in spatial power at high spatial frequencies is interpreted as a dissipation of medium-size EUV network structures to smaller-size structures in the transition region. Each of the latest ratio changes for 2010 through 2017 spectra calculated for a number of consecutive short-term intervals has been converted into monthly mean ratio (MMR) changes. The MMR values demonstrate variable sign and magnitudes, thus confirming the solar nature of the changes. These changes do not follow a “typical” trend of instrumental degradation or a long-term activity profile from the He?ii (30.4 nm) irradiance measured by the Extreme ultraviolet Spectrophotometer (ESP) either. The ESP is a channel of the Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) on-board SDO.  相似文献   

7.
In 2009, the Russian Complex Orbital Observations Near-Earth of Activity of the Sun (CORONAS-Photon) spacecraft was launched, carrying the Polish Solar PHotometer In X-rays (SphinX). The SphinX was most sensitive in the spectral range 1.2?–?15 keV, thus an excellent opportunity appeared for comparison with the low-energy end of Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) spectra. Common spectral measurements with these instruments cover the range where most of the flare energy is accumulated. We have chosen four consecutive small solar events observed on 4 July 2009 at 13:43 UT, 13:48 UT, 13:52 UT, and 13:55 UT (RHESSI flare peak times) and used them to compare the data and results from the two instruments. Moreover, we included Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) records in our analysis. In practice, the range of comparison performed for SphinX and RHESSI is limited roughly to 3?–?6 keV. RHESSI fluxes measured with a use of one, four, and nine detectors in the 3?–?4 keV energy band agree with SphinX measurements. However, we observed that SphinX spectral irradiances are three times higher than those of RHESSI in the 4?–?6 keV energy band. This effect contributes to the difference in obtained emission measures, but the derived temperatures of plasma components are similar. RHESSI spectra were fitted using a model with two thermal components. We have found that the RHESSI hot component is in agreement with GOES, and the RHESSI hotter component fits the SphinX flaring component well. Moreover, we calculated the so-called thermodynamic measure and the total thermal energy content in the four microflares that we studied. The results obtained show that SphinX is a very sensitive complementary observatory for RHESSI and GOES.  相似文献   

8.
On 27 June 2012, an eruptive solar prominence was observed in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and radio wavebands. At the Aalto University Metsähovi Radio Observatory (MRO) it was observed at 37 GHz. It was the first time that the MRO followed a radio prominence with dense sampling in the millimetre wavelengths. This prompted us to study the connection of the 37 GHz event with other wavelength domains. At 37 GHz, the prominence was tracked to a height of around \(1.6~\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\), at which the loop structure collapsed. The average velocity of the radio prominence was \(55 \pm 6~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\). The brightness temperature of the prominence varied between \(800 \pm 100\) K and \(3200 \pm 100\) K. We compared our data with the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) instrument’s 304 Å EUV data, and found that the prominence behaves very similarly in both wavelengths. The EUV data also reveal flaring activity nearby the prominence. We present a scenario in which this flare works as a trigger that causes the prominence to move from a stable stage to an acceleration stage.  相似文献   

9.
Power spectra of segmentation-cell length (a dominant length scale of EUV emission in the transition region) from full-disk He?ii extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) during periods of quiet-Sun conditions for a time interval from 1996 to 2015 were analyzed. The spatial power as a function of the spatial frequency from about 0.04 to 0.27 (EIT) or up to 0.48 (AIA) Mm?1 depends on the distribution of the observed segmentation-cell dimensions – a structure of the solar EUV network. The temporal variations of the spatial power reported by Didkovsky and Gurman (Solar Phys. 289, 153, 2014) were suggested as decreases at the mid-spatial frequencies for the compared spectra when the power curves at the highest spatial frequencies of 0.5 pix?1 were adjusted to match each other. This approach has been extended in this work to compare spectral ratios at high spatial frequencies expressed in the solar spatial frequency units of Mm?1. A model of EIT and AIA spatial responses allowed us to directly compare spatial spectral ratios at high spatial frequencies for five years of joint operation of EIT and AIA, from 2010 to 2015. Based on this approach, we represent these ratio changes as a long-term network transformation that may be interpreted as a continuous dissipation of mid-size network structures to the smaller-size structures in the transition region. In contrast to expected cycling of the segmentation-cell dimension structures and associated spatial power in the spectra with the solar cycle, the spectra demonstrate a significant and steady change of the EUV network. The temporal trend across these structural spectra is not critically sensitive to any long-term instrumental changes, e.g. degradation of sensitivity, but to the change of the segmentation-cell dimensions of the EUV network structure.  相似文献   

10.
On 21 September 2012, we carried out spectral observations of a solar facula in the Si?i 10827 Å, He?i 10830 Å, and H\(\upalpha\) spectral lines. Later, in the process of analyzing the data, we found a small-scale flare in the middle of the time series. Based on the anomalous increase in the absorption of the He?i 10830 Å line, we identified this flare as a negative flare.The aim of this article is to study the influence of the negative flare on the oscillation characteristics in the facular photosphere and chromosphere.We measured the line-of-sight (LOS) velocity and intensity of all the three lines as well as the half-width of the chromospheric lines. We also used the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetic field data. The flare caused a modulation of all these parameters. In the location of the negative flare, the amplitude of the oscillations increased four times on average. In the adjacent magnetic field local maxima, the chromospheric LOS velocity oscillations appreciably decreased during the flare. The facular region oscillated as a whole with a 5-minute period before the flare, and this synchronicity was disrupted after the flare. The flare changed the spectral composition of the LOS magnetic field oscillations, causing an increase in the low-frequency oscillation power.  相似文献   

11.
A new methodology is given to determine basic parameters of flares from their X-ray light curves. Algorithms are developed from the analysis of small X-ray flares occurring during the deep solar minimum of 2009, between Solar Cycles 23 and 24, observed by the Polish Solar Photometer in X-rays (SphinX) on the Complex Orbital Observations Near-Earth of Activity of the Sun-Photon (CORONAS-Photon) spacecraft. One is a semi-automatic flare detection procedure that gives start, peak, and end times for single (“elementary”) flare events under the assumption that the light curve is a simple convolution of a Gaussian and exponential decay functions. More complex flares with multiple peaks can generally be described by a sum of such elementary flares. Flare time profiles in the two energy ranges of SphinX (1.16?–?1.51 keV, 1.51?–?15 keV) are used to derive temperature and emission measure as a function of time during each flare. The result is a comprehensive catalogue – the SphinX Flare Catalogue – which contains 1600 flares or flare-like events and is made available for general use. The methods described here can be applied to observations made by Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and other broad-band spectrometers.  相似文献   

12.
Solar eruptions are the most spectacular events in our solar system and are associated with many different signatures of energy release including solar flares, coronal mass ejections, global waves, radio emission and accelerated particles. Here, we apply the Coronal Pulse Identification and Tracking Algorithm (CorPITA) to the high-cadence synoptic data provided by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to identify and track global waves observed by SDO. 164 of the 362 solar flare events studied (45%) were found to have associated global waves with no waves found for the remaining 198 (55%). A clear linear relationship was found between the median initial velocity and the acceleration of the waves, with faster waves exhibiting a stronger deceleration (consistent with previous results). No clear relationship was found between global waves and type II radio bursts, electrons or protons detected in situ near Earth. While no relationship was found between the wave properties and the associated flare size (with waves produced by flares from B to X-class), more than a quarter of the active regions studied were found to produce more than one wave event. These results suggest that the presence of a global wave in a solar eruption is most likely determined by the structure and connectivity of the erupting active region and the surrounding quiet solar corona rather than by the amount of free energy available within the active region.  相似文献   

13.
Based on energetic particle observations made at \({\approx}\,1\) AU, we present a catalogue of 46 wide-longitude (\({>}\,45^{\circ}\)) solar energetic particle (SEP) events detected at multiple locations during 2009?–?2016. The particle kinetic energies of interest were chosen as \({>}\,55\) MeV for protons and 0.18?–?0.31 MeV for electrons. We make use of proton data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron Experiment (SOHO/ERNE) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory/High Energy Telescopes (STEREO/HET), together with electron data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) and the STEREO/Solar Electron and Proton Telescopes (SEPT). We consider soft X-ray data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and coronal mass ejection (CME) observations made with the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) and STEREO/Coronagraphs 1 and 2 (COR1, COR2) to establish the probable associations between SEP events and the related solar phenomena. Event onset times and peak intensities are determined; velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) are performed for protons; TSA is performed for electrons. In our event sample, there is a tendency for the highest peak intensities to occur when the observer is magnetically connected to solar regions west of the flare. Our estimates for the mean event width, derived as the standard deviation of a Gaussian curve modelling the SEP intensities (protons \({\approx}\,44^{\circ}\), electrons \({\approx}\,50^{\circ}\)), largely agree with previous results for lower-energy SEPs. SEP release times with respect to event flares, as well as the event rise times, show no simple dependence on the observer’s connection angle, suggesting that the source region extent and dominant particle acceleration and transport mechanisms are important in defining these characteristics of an event. There is no marked difference between the speed distributions of the CMEs related to wide events and the CMEs related to all near-Earth SEP events of similar energy range from the same time period.  相似文献   

14.
We present here an interesting two-step filament eruption during 14?–?15 March 2015. The filament was located in NOAA AR 12297 and associated with a halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). We use observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Heliospheric Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). We also use \(\mbox{H}\upalpha\) data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) telescope and the Kanzelhoehe Solar Observatory. The filament shows a first step eruption on 14 March 2015 and it stops its rise at a projected altitude \({\approx}\,125~\mbox{Mm}\) on the solar disk. It remains at this height for \({\approx}\,12~\mbox{hrs}\). Finally it erupts on 15 March 2015 and produces a halo CME. We also find jet activity in the active region during both days, which could help the filament de-stabilization and eruption. The decay index is calculated to understand this two-step eruption. The eruption could be due to the presence of successive instability–stability–instability zones as the filament is rising.  相似文献   

15.
For future solar missions as well as ground-based telescopes, efficient ways to return and process data have become increasingly important. Solar Orbiter, which is the next ESA/NASA mission to explore the Sun and the heliosphere, is a deep-space mission, which implies a limited telemetry rate that makes efficient onboard data compression a necessity to achieve the mission science goals. Missions like the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and future ground-based telescopes such as the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope, on the other hand, face the challenge of making petabyte-sized solar data archives accessible to the solar community. New image compression standards address these challenges by implementing efficient and flexible compression algorithms that can be tailored to user requirements. We analyse solar images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) instrument onboard SDO to study the effect of lossy JPEG2000 (from the Joint Photographic Experts Group 2000) image compression at different bitrates. To assess the quality of compressed images, we use the mean structural similarity (MSSIM) index as well as the widely used peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) as metrics and compare the two in the context of solar EUV images. In addition, we perform tests to validate the scientific use of the lossily compressed images by analysing examples of an on-disc and off-limb coronal-loop oscillation time-series observed by AIA/SDO.  相似文献   

16.
Using in situ observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we have identified 70 Earth-affecting interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in Solar Cycle 24. Because of the unprecedented extent of heliospheric observations in Cycle 24 that has been achieved thanks to the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) instruments onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), we observe these events throughout the heliosphere from the Sun to the Earth, and we can relate these in situ signatures to remote sensing data. This allows us to completely track the event back to the source of the eruption in the low corona. We present a summary of the Earth-affecting CMEs in Solar Cycle 24 and a statistical study of the properties of these events including the source region. We examine the characteristics of CMEs that are more likely to be strongly geoeffective and examine the effect of the flare strength on in situ properties. We find that Earth-affecting CMEs in the first half of Cycle 24 are more likely to come from the northern hemisphere, but after April 2012, this reverses, and these events are more likely to originate in the southern hemisphere, following the observed magnetic asymmetry in the two hemispheres. We also find that as in past solar cycles, CMEs from the western hemisphere are more likely to reach Earth. We find that Cycle 24 lacks in events driving extreme geomagnetic storms compared to past solar cycles.  相似文献   

17.
Using multiwavelength observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), we investigate the mechanism of two successive eruptions (F1 and F2) of a filament in active region NOAA 11444 on 27 March 2012. The filament was inverse J-shaped and lay along a quasi-circular polarity inversion line (PIL). The first part of the filament erupted at \(\sim2{:}30\) UT on 27 March 2012 (F1), the second part at around 4:20 UT on the same day (F2). A precursor or preflare brightening was observed below the filament main axis about 30 min before F1. The brightening was followed by a jet-like ejection below the filament, which triggered its eruption. Before the eruption of F2, the filament seemed to be trapped within the overlying arcade loops for almost 1.5 h before it successfully erupted. Interestingly, we observe simultaneously contraction (\(\sim12~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\)) and expansion (\(\sim20~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\)) of arcade loops in the active region before F2. Magnetograms obtained with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) show converging motion of the opposite polarities, which result in flux cancellation near the PIL. We suggest that flux cancellation at the PIL resulted in a jet-like ejection below the filament main axis, which triggered F1, similar to the tether-cutting process. F2 was triggered by removal of the overlying arcade loops via reconnection. Both filament eruptions produced high-speed (\(\sim1000~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\)) coronal mass ejections.  相似文献   

18.
The solar neutron detector Space Environment Data Acquisition Equipment – Attached Payload (SEDA-FIB) onboard the International Space Station (ISS) detected several events from the solar direction associated with three large solar flares observed on 05 (X1.1), 07 (X5.4), and 09 (M6.3) March 2012. In this study, we focus on the interesting event of 05 March, present the temporal profiles of the neutrons, and discuss the physics that may be related to a possible acceleration scenario for ions above the solar surface. We compare our data with images of the flares obtained by the ultraviolet telescope Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).  相似文献   

19.
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) product that facilitates cut-out magnetograms of solar active regions (AR) in the Sun in near-realtime (NRT), taken over a five-year interval (2012?–?2016). Our approach utilizes a set of thirteen predictors, which are not included in the SHARP metadata, extracted from line-of-sight and vector photospheric magnetograms. We exploit several machine learning (ML) and conventional statistics techniques to predict flares of peak magnitude \({>}\,\mbox{M1}\) and \({>}\,\mbox{C1}\) within a 24 h forecast window. The ML methods used are multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We conclude that random forests could be the prediction technique of choice for our sample, with the second-best method being multi-layer perceptrons, subject to an entropy objective function. A Monte Carlo simulation showed that the best-performing method gives accuracy \(\mathrm{ACC}=0.93(0.00)\), true skill statistic \(\mathrm{TSS}=0.74(0.02)\), and Heidke skill score \(\mathrm{HSS}=0.49(0.01)\) for \({>}\,\mbox{M1}\) flare prediction with probability threshold 15% and \(\mathrm{ACC}=0.84(0.00)\), \(\mathrm{TSS}=0.60(0.01)\), and \(\mathrm{HSS}=0.59(0.01)\) for \({>}\,\mbox{C1}\) flare prediction with probability threshold 35%.  相似文献   

20.
Coronal holes (CHs) are regions of open magnetic field lines in the solar corona and the source of the fast solar wind. Understanding the evolution of coronal holes is critical for solar magnetism as well as for accurate space weather forecasts. We study the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) synoptic maps at three wavelengths (195 Å/193 Å, 171 Å and 304 Å) measured by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) instruments. The two datasets are first homogenized by scaling the SDO/AIA data to the SOHO/EIT level by means of histogram equalization. We then develop a novel automated method to identify CHs from these homogenized maps by determining the intensity threshold of CH regions separately for each synoptic map. This is done by identifying the best location and size of an image segment, which optimally contains portions of coronal holes and the surrounding quiet Sun allowing us to detect the momentary intensity threshold. Our method is thus able to adjust itself to the changing scale size of coronal holes and to temporally varying intensities. To make full use of the information in the three wavelengths we construct a composite CH distribution, which is more robust than distributions based on one wavelength. Using the composite CH dataset we discuss the temporal evolution of CHs during the Solar Cycles 23 and 24.  相似文献   

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