苏州地域开发适宜性分区

中国经济发达地区在工业化和城市化快速发展过程中,出现的地域开发过密和无序的状况,导致自然生态及农业发展受到较大破坏,可持续性受到威胁。以生态-经济为导向的地域开发适宜性分区,强调让开发成本低、资源环境容量大、发展能力强的地区承担高强度社会经济活动;而让生态价值高、开发难度大的区域承担农业和生态维护功能,以此促进经济、人口、资源、环境相互关系及空间秩序的协调。在借鉴已有区划方法的基础上,讨论了评价单元划分、评价指标选择与处理等技术方法,通过生态和经济重要性指数的矩阵分类分析,将苏州地域划分为优先开发、适度开发、适度保护以及禁止开发等四大类型,并针对不同类型提出分区管制要求。     

以生态-经济为导向的江苏省土地开发适宜性分区

随着城市化和工业化进程的加快,经济发达地区大量的农业及生态保护用地被侵占,开发可持续性受到威胁。从协调经济、人口、资源、环境相互关系出发,空间开发强调因地制宜,即让开发成本低、资源环境容量大的地区承担高强度的工业化和城市化等社会经济活动;而让生态价值高、开发难度大的区域承担农业和生态维护功能。土地开发适宜性分区,以生态-经济为导向,借鉴已有区划方法,采用要素层-关系层-逻辑层-应用层的技术路线,评价适宜各单元的开发强度,划分开发与保护空间。将这一方法运用于江苏省的案例研究之中,以县和省辖市市区为基本评价单元,通过选择自然生态与经济社会两方面的指标,综合分析生态和经济重要性指数,将江苏全省划分为优先开发区域、适度开发区域、适度保护区域、优先保护区域和灰色区域等五大类型区。这一结果可以作为引导空间开发秩序、实施区域建设空间管制的重要依据。     

海岸带的空间功能分区与管制方法——以宁波市为例

海岸带空间资源的合理开发和利用关系到海洋经济发展质量和优质资源利用效率,成为影响沿海城市区域可持续发展的重要内容。根据区域自然、经济、社会特征,运用相关分区方法,划分海岸线和海岸带开发与保护的适宜性空间,获取较高的空间资源配置效率,成为地理学研究关注的热点。大部分学者从经济和生态两个方面要素构建指标体系,并对分区方法进行了有益探索和尝试,但是由于海岸带具有自然地理的特殊性,所以在指标选择上有较大不同。以宁波海岸带为例,讨论海岸线及海岸带的空间区划指标体系选择和方法应用问题。在借鉴已有区划方法的基础上,重点讨论评价单元划分、评价指标选择与处理等技术方法,在评价海岸线开发适宜基础上,做进一步的海岸带空间功能分区,将宁波市海岸带空间划分为生态空间、生产空间和生活空间,并结合宁波市空间开发现状,提出不同类型区域空间布局调整引导方向和管制要求。     

区域发展的空间失衡模式与状态评估——以江苏省为例

从收入增长和生态改善的空间均衡角度来看,区域发展空间失衡是空间开发状态与其区位供给能力不相匹配,空间的经济社会活动没有按照开发供给的比较优势进行地区分工配置。当区域开发规模及程度超过其可能的供给容量视为开发过度;若没有充分利用供给容量,则为开发不足。以江苏省县(县级市) 单元为例,采用开发强度与反映空间供给能力的生态重要性指数、环境敏感性指数、规模集聚指数、资源保障指数、运输经济指数的相关关系以及协调度,可以判断和评价空间失衡的状态。同时,资源环境价格市场不完善,政府调控要素导向不合理以及开发导向的财税和政绩考核体系等安排,都是导致空间失衡的制度原因。     

区域空间功能分区的目标、进展与方法

本文主要回顾了我国功能区划的发展历程,指出已有区划在解决新问题时存在的不足。提出进行以可持续发展为目标的区域空间功能分区,其目标是充分协调利用和保护区域空间多功能性即其社会功能、经济功能、生态环境功能等。区域空间功能分区分为三个步骤:针对不同地区关键领域的功能识别与确定、区域空间功能发展目标导向确定和区域空间发展工具确定。区域空间具有多项功能,区域多种功能的识别和定量以及主体功能的选择可采用区域空间功能函数群方法,区域空间功能分区的整个流程可用决策树方法将区域空间功能分区结果表达在空间上形成一系列主题功能区图谱。     

基于空间开发适宜性分区的城镇建设用地配置——以海安县为例

依据经济社会发展需求和资源环境承载能力的区域差别,进行建设用地配置,是区域空间引导和控制的重要内容.借助GIS空间分析方法.基于资源、环境、经济和社会等各方面要素进行空间开发适宜性分区分析,综合考虑城镇建设用地扩展的经济社会发展需求和资源环境承载力及其用地发展潜力,讨论了城镇建设用地数量和空间配置的方法.基于该方法,以海安县为案例区进行验证,分析表明:2020年该区城镇建设用地集中分布在县域中部和东南部资源环境约束较小、发展潜力较大的地区,有助于发挥不同地区的主体功能,实现区域人口、经济和资源环境的协调发展.     

基于适应性循环模型的重庆市国土空间生态修复分区

明确国土空间生态修复分区是有序实施国土整治与生态修复的前提与基础。重庆市是长江上游生态屏障的最后一道关口,在国家生态安全格局中的战略地位突出。本文以重庆市为例,探讨基于适应性循环模型的国土空间生态修复分区研究框架,构建评价指标体系诊断国土空间系统潜力、连通度和韧性3维属性的时空演变趋势,识别县域单元所处适应性循环阶段,划定国土空间生态修复分区,并明确基于分区的生态修复策略。结果表明：① 2000—2020年重庆市国土空间系统3维属性整体呈现东高西低的空间特征。当前各县域单元大多处于重组阶段、开发阶段和协调开发阶段,少部分处于保护阶段,尚未进入释放阶段。② 重庆市国土空间生态修复分区包含4个大区和9个亚区。总体而言,生态修复区应关注建成区的系统性生态修复工程,加强环境综合改良与治理力度;生态提升区应逐步提高生态保护修复工程的实施标准,优化各类生态要素的协调度,提升综合生态效益;生态控制区应限制国土空间开发强度,降低人类活动干扰的负面影响;生态保育区应优化自然生态系统功能,加强生态保护区管理与生态问题治理。     

长江经济带开发与保护空间格局构建及其分析路径

长江流域经济—社会—生态系统完整,是中国国土空间开发最重要的东西轴线,在区域发展总体格局中具有重要战略地位。当下,为应对全球经贸格局重组、国家与区域经济社会转型以及资源环境约束趋紧等新形势,国家提出依托长江黄金水道,构建横贯东西、辐射南北、通江达海、经济高效、生态良好的中国经济新支撑带,这就要求长江经济带形成人口资源环境协调的均衡化开发与保护格局。本文基于“点—轴”、分区式与多中心网络式等空间组织结构,明确空间格局的推演逻辑与思路。进而,在区域差异性分析与空间开发适宜性评价基础上,认为长江经济带需重点构建以“一轴两翼,三区六廊”为主体的开发格局、以“六大片区”为主体的农业发展格局、以“五大屏障”为主体的生态安全格局,并提出不同区域差异化发展导向、路径与制度建议,以及今后长江经济带空间结构需进一步研究的主要科学问题。     

南通海岸带滩涂开发类型选择与空间功能配置研究

海岸带滩涂开发类型选择与空间布局是海岸带综合管理研究的重要内容,对于促进海岸带可持续发展具有重要意义。以海岸带资源环境-社会经济条件与滩涂开发类型对应关系透视为基础,结合南通海岸带滩涂条件、开发类型演变和区域发展背景分析,提出该地区生态旅游、农业和港口–工业–城镇多元化的滩涂综合利用模式,集成适宜性评价与分区、多部门规划冲突与协调等方法,探讨了南通海岸带滩涂地区生态与旅游、农业和港工城等功能区的空间配置路径。南通海岸带地区三类空间适宜比例分别23.5%,32.7%和43.8%,可以作为海岸带综合管理政策制定的参考。     

山坝分区视角下的贵州省国土空间功能协调演化特征

开展国土空间功能协调分析是国土空间优化的重要路径之一。根据山坝分区,基于“三生功能”视角,从各功能的影响因素出发,构建了贵州省国土空间功能评价指标体系,综合运用熵权法、耦合协调度模型量化1995、2000、2010、2015年贵州省国土空间功能耦合协调度,进而探讨其在山坝分区下的时空演化特征。结果表明:(1)贵州省国土空间功能协调度总体呈“黔中丘原区(坝区)高—环黔山区带(山区)低,西高—东低”的空间分布格局,时间维度上坝区功能协调发展水平较山区快,且耦合协调度向高度协调发展;(2)国土空间功能两两耦合协调之中“生产—生活”山坝分异显著,且坝区协调类型两级分化严重;山区与坝区的生产、生态功能矛盾突出,表现出山区、坝区生产、生态空间博弈过程中2015年生态功能处于弱势地位;“生活—生态”功能协调较其它两组耦合协调水平低,但处于稳定发展的状态,且山坝差距逐渐缩小。未来应基于贵州省国土空间功能的时空分异特征及发展规律,设计差异化的山坝优化路径,引导国土空间功能均衡、有序发展。     

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Suitability of Agricultural Land in Myanmar

Myanmar is a country with an economy based on agriculture. It has rich agricultural resources and great potential for development. The development of agriculture in Myanmar is becoming increasingly important to international food security. Assessments of agricultural land resources in Myanmar are the basis for the country’s agricultural development and for food security evaluations. In this paper we used the MaxEnt model to analyze the relationship between the suitability of land for agricultural reclamation and the main environmental variables in Myanmar, and then constructed a model to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. The results show that: 1) the overall accuracy of the MaxEnt model is high (AUC>0.8), which means there is a high correlation between the database of selected environmental indicators and the true distribution of cultivated land in Myanmar. 2) Soil depth is the most important factor affecting the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. When the thickness of soil layer is less than 100 cm, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to topographic conditions, slope is the main factor affecting suitability. When the slope is greater than 20 degrees, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to climate conditions, precipitation is the main influencing factor. There is a positive correlation between river network density and land suitability. 3) Currently, 400 000 km² of the land resources in Myanmar are suitable for agriculture, and of this amount 290 000 km² are highly suitable, accounting for nearly 40% of the country's land area. The highly suitable land is distributed mainly in Magway, Sagaing, Ayeyarwady and Yangon provinces. The provinces are also important grain production areas in Myanmar, and this serves to validate the effectiveness of the method used in this paper.     

Retrospective validation of the time association of precursors

This paper examines the problems raised by the retrospective association of events, a process which underlies any search for precursors to geophysical phenomena. Association is analysed here with respect to time only, disregarding the spatial component, so the results are more readily applicable to volcanic eruptions than to earthquakes. Two sources of bias are examined, viz. the time lag between the precursor and event series, and the tolerance or time window accepted on that lag, which is also linked to the number of associated events. These parameters are typically chosen a posteriori to minimize the apparent probability of random association in the given series. In general, given different input data, optimal association of the two series will be achieved for different values of these parameters. Thus, any valid system of significance testing must include a step which estimates the effect of retrospectively choosing optimal parameters rather than fixing them in advance. This paper shows that, as long as at least one of the two time-series—either the precursors or the events—is Poissonian, the correction factors for the significance level can be written in a simple closed form. The correction scheme is applied to a proposed association between seismic clusters and flank eruptions of Mount Etna. Although the association appears to be highly significant when assessed using simple standard tests, this significance is not confirmed when the effect of retrospective parameter optimization is taken into account. The key point is that retrospective studies can be investigated using standard techniques, but where such techniques are employed, the threshold for significance of association must be greatly lowered in order to account for the bias due to the optimal choice of parameters.     

Efficiency of rainwater harvesting of microcatchments and the role of their design

Microcatchment is a technique for collecting, storing and conserving local surface runoff in order to grow trees/shrubs. In this system, runoff water is generated on a plot and stored in the soil during runoff events, and trees/shrubs may utilize this water during the next dry season.Microcatchments have relatively small runoff generation areas (from dozens to hundreds sq. m) and are cheap and simple to implement Their collection area is usually a small depression located nearby the runoff generating area in which one or a few trees/shrubs may be planted Due to the short overland flow path runoff generation is efficient and even short low intensity storms may generate runoff. The drawback is however that due to the small size of the generating area small volumes of water are conveyed to the storage plots. Another drawback is susceptibility of the augmented water to evaporation. The main objective of present research presented hereafter was to estimate the effect the depth of the depression has on the efficiency of the water conservation in the soil profile. In the present study the storage plots were circular pits and the effect their depth had on evaporative losses and water distribution were studied.The results clearly show that the depth of the pit significantly affects evaporative water losses. The losses were separately computed for the soil cylinder whose upper surface is the bottom of the pit and for the surrounding shell. No differences between treatments were evident for losses from the inner cylinder. Significant differences in water losses were however observed for the surrounding shell where the shallow pits losing as much as six times more than the deeper pits.     

Small-area estimation of land cover statistics by post-stratification of a national area frame survey

The objective of this paper is to examine a method for estimation of land cover statistics for local environments from available area frame surveys of larger, surrounding areas. The method is a simple version of the small-area estimation methodology. The starting point is a national area frame survey of land cover. This survey is post-stratified using a coarse land cover map based on topographic maps and segmentation of satellite images. The approach is to describe the land cover composition of each stratum and subsequently use the results to calculate land cover statistics for a smaller area where the relative distribution of the strata is known. The method was applied to a mountain environment in Gausdal in Eastern Norway and the result was compared to reference data from a complete in situ land cover map of the study area. The overall correlation (Pearson’s rho) between the observed and the estimated land cover figures was r = 0.95. The method does not produce a map of the target area and the estimation error was large for a few of the land cover classes. The overall conclusion is, however, that the method is applicable when the objective is to produce land cover statistics and the interest is the general composition of land cover classes - not the precise estimate of each class. The method will be applied in outfield pasture management in Norway, where it offers a cost-efficient way to screen the management units and identify local areas with a land cover composition suitable for grazing. The limited resources available for in situ land cover mapping can then be allocated efficiently to in-depth studies of the areas with the highest grazing potential. It is also expected that the method can be used to compile land cover statistics for other purposes as well, provided that the motivation is to describe the overall land cover composition and not to provide exact estimates for the individual land cover classes.     

发展潜力视角的海岸带土地利用模式——以杭州湾南岸为例

基于海岸带土地利用的困境与本质解读,集成模糊综合评价、网络层次分析与GIS空间分析等方法构建海岸带土地发展潜力评价体系,依据土地发展潜力评价内容辨析海岸带土地利用模式的要素逻辑,诠释了海岸带土地利用类型优化、土地利用空间结构重组、空间管控策略之关联,提出了杭州湾南岸经济—生态协同型土地利用模式。研究发现：① 科学地测度经济发达区的海岸带经济与生态关系是评估海岸带土地效益的关键,采用反比例关系衡量土地生态与经济发展关系构建土地发展潜力评价体系的方法,可以有效地发现经济与生态的区域矛盾问题,为解决海岸带土地开发向生态敏感区拓展问题提供方法支持。② 杭州湾南岸极高潜力区和高潜力区占57.07%,中、低潜力区占42.93%,具有较高的发展潜力,呈南强北弱的分布格局。随着人工化地类面积逐渐趋少,自然化地类渐增,土地发展潜力分区呈现等级递减的规律。③ 凝练出经济—生态协同型海岸带土地利用模式是杭州湾南岸以经济发展为导向的海岸带土地利用的实践趋势与基本模式,构建该模式须遵循“稳定经济开发、严控生态保育、调控双向功能”为主线的海岸带土地利用类型优化、“陆海系统并行,多功能组团”为核心的土地利用空间结构重组方向、“生活—生产—生态”分段式协同管控的空间治理三重系统的逻辑体系。     

Modelling quartz cementation of quartzose sandstones

Cementation of quartzose sandstones is modelled assuming that the main source of silica is quartz dissolved at stylolites. The cementation process is shown to operate in one of two different regimes depending on the Damköhler number for diffusion. The regime, where diffusion of silica from the stylolites is a faster process than precipitation, is characterized by a nearly constant supersaturation between the stylolites. This regime, which spans the depth interval of quartz cementation for close stylolites, allows for approximate analytical expressions for the porosity evolution as a function of time and temperature. An expression is derived for the temperature where half the initial porosity is lost during constant burial along a constant thermal gradient. This expression is used to study the sensitivity of all parameters which enter the cementation process. The cementation process is shown to be particularly sensitive to the activation energy for quartz dissolution. The expression for the porosity decrease under constant burial is generalized to any piecewise linear burial and temperature history. The influence of the burial histories on the cementation process is then studied.     

新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应初探

计算新疆三大区域地表水资源与气候的相关性,建立两者间的回归方程,进而探讨新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应,得到以下几点主要结论:①新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应具有明显的地域特点:北疆以对水文年降水的正响应为主;南疆以对5~9月温度的正响应为主,以对高山区前年的水文年降水的正响应为辅;东疆对水文年降水的正响应及5~9月温度的负响应并重,对降水的响应更重要些。②北疆:当北疆8站水文年平均降水偏多(或偏少)10%时,北疆地表水资源会偏多或偏少7.2%。③东疆:当沁城5~9月平均温度为多年平均值时,巴音布鲁克水文年降水变化±10%,东疆地表水资源会出现±5.4%的变化;当巴音布鲁克水文年降水为多年平均值时,沁城5~9月平均温度偏高(或偏低)1℃,东疆地表水资源会减少(或增多)8.3%。④南疆:当南疆4站5~9月平均温度为多年平均值时,塔什库尔干前年的水文年降水变化±10%,南疆地表水资源会出现±1.3%的变化;当塔什库尔干前年的水文年降水为多年平均值时,南疆4站5~9月平均温度偏高(或偏低)1℃,南疆地表水资源会增多(或减少)11.7%。     

珠穆朗玛峰重力值的推估──兼论推估方法的基本原理

在山区 ,尤其是在有全球第三极之称的喜马拉雅山区 ,当相邻点间距不大时 ,如何利用这些点上的重力与地形 (高程 )数据推估待求点的重力值 ,这对难以攀登和不能用仪器观测的山峰很有意义。研究指出 ,在地形负荷的波长很短时 ,具有一定强度的地壳足以能够支撑这种负荷 ,因此 ,不能用Airy Heiskanen和Pratt Hayford局部补偿模型作重力推估 ;由于空间异常主要受地形起伏制约 ,因此借助于邻近重力点的地形 (高程 )作推估会得到满意的结果。基于这一思路 ,我们采用了 4种有关公式 ,有效地推估了第三极之巅珠穆朗玛峰顶上的重力值 ,该值为(976 970± 7)× 1 0 - 5m·s- 2 。这一结果为精确推求珠峰大地水准面和正高提供了必要的数据 ,若用均衡的方法来推估 ,则可能相差近 1 0 0× 1 0 - 5m·s- 2 。     

五台山旅游气候及其舒适度评价

气候是一个地区旅游发展的基本因子。本文分析了五台山气候状况和气象景观 ,计算了各月舒适度指数、寒冷指数和平均着衣指数 ,得出了人体气候舒适度的时间分布。根据舒适度指数、寒冷指数和穿衣指数对各月旅游气候适宜性进行分析评价 ,并提出穿衣建议 ,从而为五台山旅游发展规划和游客选择旅游时间提供了科学的依据     

Variations of bank shift rates along the Yinchuan Plain reach of the Yellow River and their influencing factors

It is important to examine the lateral shift rate variation of river banks in different periods. One of the challenges in this regard is how to obtain the shift rate of river banks, as gauging stations are deficient for the study of river reaches. The present study selected the Yinchuan Plain reach of the Yellow River with a length of 196 km as a case study, and searched each point of intersection of 153 cross-sections (interval between two adjacent cross-sections was 1.3 km) and river banks in 1975, 1990, 2010 and 2011, which were plotted according to remote sensing images in those years. Then the shift rates for the points of intersection during 1975–1990, 1990–2010 and 2010–2011 were calculated, as well as the average shift rates for different sections and different periods. The results show that the left bank of the river reach shifts mostly to the right, with the average shift rates being 36.5 m/a, 27.8 m/a and 61.5 m/a in the three periods, respectively. Contemporarily, the right bank shifts mostly to the right in the first period, while it shifts to the left in the second and third periods, with the average shift rates being 31.7 m/a, 23.1 m/a and 50.8 m/a in the three periods, respectively. The average shift rates for the left and right banks during the period 1975–2011 are 22.3 m/a and 14.8 m/a, respectively. The bank shift rates for sections A, B and C are different. The shift rate ratio of the left bank in the three sections is 1:7.6:4.6 for shift to the left and 1:1.7:3.8 for shift to the right, while that of the right bank is 1:1.8:1.2 for shift to the left and 1:5.6:17.7 for shift to the right during the period 1975–2011. Obviously, the average shift rate is the least in section A, while it is maximum in section B for shift to the left and in section C for shift to the right. The temporal variation of the shift rate is influenced by human activities, while the spatial variation is controlled by the local difference in bank materials.