Temporal changes in shear-wave splitting at an isolated swarm of small earthquakes in 1992 near Dongfang, Hainan Island, southern China

An isolated swarm of small earthquakes occurred in 1992, near Dongfang on Hainan Island, southern China. The Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau of China, monitored the swarm with five DCS-302 digital accelerometers for three months from 1992 June 1. 18 earthquakes, with magnitudes M _L ranging from 1.8 to 3.6, were well located by five stations, and shear-wave splitting varying azimuthally was analysed on 27 seismic records from these events. The mean polarization azimuth of the faster shear wave was WNW. Time delays between the split shear waves at two stations varied with time and space. The time delays at one station fell abruptly after earthquakes of magnitudes 3.1 and 3.6, but did not change significantly at the second station. This behaviour is consistent with the delay-time changes being caused by changes in the aspect ratio of vertical liquid-filled (EDA) cracks. Thus, the variation in shear-wave-splitting time delay could be due to changes in crustal stress related to nearby small-magnitude earthquake activity. The connection between earthquake activity and crustal stress variation measured by shear-wave splitting leaves the door open for possible observations of crustal stress transients related to the onset of an earthquake; however, our data cannot be considered as definite evidence for such precursors.     

Shear-wave polarizations in the Peter the First Range indicating crack-induced anisotropy in a thrust-fault regime

Summary. Three-component seismograms of small local earthquakes recorded in the Peter the First Range of mountains near Garm, Tadzhikistan SSR, display shear-wave splitting similar to that previously observed near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. The Peter the First Range is in a region of compressional tectonics, whereas the North Anatolian Fault is a comparatively simple strike-slip fault. Detailed analysis of the Turkish records suggests that the splitting is diagnostic of crack-induced anisotropy caused by vertical microcracks aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Preliminary examination of paper records from Garm shows that most shear waves arriving within the shear-wave window display shear-wave splitting, and that the polarizations of leading shear-waves are consistently aligned in a NE/SW direction. The area is complicated and the tectonics are not well-understood, but the NE/SW direction is approximately perpendicular to the compressional axis in many of the fault-plane mechanisms of the earthquakes. These earthquakes are usually at depths between 5 and 12 km, although there are some deeper events nearby.
Parallel shear-wave polarizations, such as those observed, are expected to indicate the strike of nearly vertical parallel microcracks, which would be aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Thus the shear-wave polarizations in the Peter the First Range indicate that the directions of principal stress are reversed in the rock above the earthquake foci where thrust faulting is taking place.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – III. Observations of temporal changes.

Summary. Almost all shear-waves from local earthquakes recorded on closely-spaced three-component seismometer networks deployed near the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey, in two experiments in 1979 and 1980, display shear-wave splitting. The observations are consistent with the presence of EDA (extensive-dilatancy anisotropy), distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks aligned by the regional stress field. Temporal changes in the stress-field, which may occur before an earthquake, may modify the geometry and possibly the orientation of the EDA-microcracks, and lead to corresponding changes in the behaviour of the split shear-waves. A third experiment was undertaken in 1984 to investigate EDA further and to search for possible temporal variations of the polarization of the leading split shear-wave and the time delay between split shear-waves. Observations indicate that the polarization alignments, which are parallel to the strike of the parallel vertical EDA-cracks, are unaltered between 1979 and 1984, implying that the direction of the regional stress field has not changed significantly. Temporal changes in the stress field are more likely to cause changes in the crack density and/or aspect ratio, which would result in a corresponding change in time delay between the split shear-waves. We examine observations of time delay in relation to their propagation path with respect to the crack geometry since it is then possible to separate the effects of changes in crack density and changes in aspect ratio. With this procedure, a small temporal variation of time delays is found between 1979 and 1984, consistent with a decrease in crack density, and consequently a relaxation of stress, in this time period. No evidence was found for any observable variation of time delay over a six month observation span in 1984. We suggest that analysis of repeated shear-wave VSPs offers a technique for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes.     

Shear-wave anisotropy and the stress field from borehole recordings at 2.5 km depth at Cajon Pass

53 local earthquakes recorded at 2.5 km depth in the Cajon Pass scientific borehole are analysed for shear-wave splitting. The time delays between the split shear waves can be positively identified for 32 of the events. Modelling these observations of polarizations and time delays using genetic algorithms suggests that the anisotropic structure near Cajon Pass has orthorhombic symmetry. The polarization of the shear waves and the inferred strike of the stress-aligned fluid-filled intergranular microcracks and pores suggests that the maximum horizontal compressional stress direction is approximately N13°W. This is consistent with previous results from earthquake source mechanisms and the right-lateral strike-slip motion on the nearby San Andreas Fault, but not with stresses measured within the uppermost 3 km of the borehole. This study suggests that the San Andreas Fault is driven by deeper tectonic stresses and the present understanding of a weak and frictionless San Andreas Fault may need to be modified. The active secondary faulting and folding close to the fault are probably driven by the relatively shallow stress as measured in the 3.5 km deep borehole.     

The basis for earthquake prediction

Summary. Recent advances in understanding the behaviour of shear waves propagating in the crust make the routine prediction of earthquakes seem practicable. Accumulating evidence suggests that most of the Earth's crust is pervaded by distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks that are aligned by the contemporary stress-field so that the cracked rockmass is effectively anisotropic to seismic waves. This causes shear-waves to split, and shear-wave splitting is observed whenever shear-waves propagating along suitable raypaths in the crust are recorded by three-component instruments. These distributions of cracks are known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy or EDA. Many characteristics of the crack- and stress-geometry can be monitored by analyzing shear-waves propagating through the cracked rockmass. Observations of temporal variations of the behaviour of shear-wave splitting in seismic gaps confirm these hypotheses, and suggest that stress changes before earthquakes may be monitored by analyzing shear-waves. In particular, monitoring earthquake preparation zones with three-component shear-wave vertical-seismic-profiles could lead to techniques for the routine prediction of earthquakes.     

The Turkish Dilatancy Project (TDP3): multidisciplinary studies of a potential earthquake source region

Summary. The section of the North Anatolian Fault lying near the city of Izmit, at the east of the Marmara Sea, has been identified as a seismic gap and the possible site of a future major earthquake. Previously published studies of records from an earthquake swarm within the gap (TDP1 and TDP2) provided the first evidence that shear-wave splitting occurs in earthquake source regions, a conclusion since verified by many studies at other locations. A third field study (TDP3) was mounted in the Izmit region during the summer of 1984. Observations were made over an eight-month period and included geomagnetic and geoelectric measurements in addition to a series of observations utilising dense arrays of three-component seismometers. Earthquake activity in the principal study area was monitored over a period of eight months. Records showed features similar to those observed in the earlier studies. In particular: (1) almost all shear waves emerging within the shear-wave window displayed shear-wave splitting; and (2) the polarizations of the first arriving (faster) split shear-waves showed sub-parallel alignments, characteristic of propagation through a distribution of parallel vertical cracks striking perpendicular to the minimum compressional stress.
These and other observations support the conclusion of earlier studies – that the upper crust is pervaded by distributions of micro-cracks aligned by stress, known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy. A search for time dependence in shear-wave phenomena has revealed temporal variations in the delays between the split shear-waves throughout the course of the TDP3 study, but as yet this has not been correlated with specific earthquake activity.     

Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress forecast (with hindsight)

A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – I. Evidence for anisotropy-induced shear-wave splitting

Summary. The Turkish Dilatancy Projects (TDP1 in 1979 and TDP2 in 1980) recorded small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault with closely-spaced networks of three-component seismometers in order to investigate the possibility of diagnosing dilatancy from its effects of shear-wave propagation. This paper examines the polarizations of shear wavetrains recorded in the shear-wave window immediately above the earthquake foci. Abrupt changes in the orientation and/or ellipticity of the shear-wave polarizations are almost always observed during the first few cycles following the initial shear-wave arrival on each seismogram. The horizontal projections of the polarizations of the first shear-wave arrivals at any given station show nearly parallel alignments with approximately the same orientations at each of the recording sites (with one exception). It is difficult to explain this uniform alignment over a wide area in terms of scattering at the irregular surface topography or by earthquake focal mechanisms. We demonstrate that the shear-wave splitting is likely to be the result of anisotropy in the region above the earthquake foci, which could produce polarizations displaying the observed alignments. The temporal change of the azimuth of alignment, observed at one locality between 1979 and 1980, may be due to the release of a local stress anomaly by a very near earthquake.     

Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—II. Response to temporal changes before earthquakes

There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.     

Earthquake prediction: a new physical basis

Summary. Subcritical crack growth in the laboratory occurs slowly but progressively in solids subjected to low stresses at low strain rates. The cracks tend to grow parallel to the maximum compressive stress so that, when this stress is aligned over a large enough region, the cracks will also be aligned and possess effective seismic anisotropy. It is suggested that such subcritical crack growth produces extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) throughout earth-quake preparation zones. This process is a possible driving mechanism for earthquake precursors observed at substantial distances from impending focal zones, and provides, in the shear-wave splitting which has been observed in several seismic regions, a possible technique for monitoring the build-up of stress before earthquakes.     

The NW Scotland earthquake swarm of 1974

Summary. A swarm of earthquakes occurred in the Kintail area of NW Scotland in 1974 August with magnitudes up to M_L = 4.6 and reported intensities up to VI MM. One earthquake of the series was recorded by about 60 temporary stations of the LISPB refraction experiment in addition to the permanent LOWNET network. This allowed the determination of an accurate epicentre for that event which was then used as a control event to locate other earthquakes of the Kintail series. The events of that swarm had a strikeslip focal mechanism and seemed to be associated with the Strathconon Fault.     

Focal mechanisms of recent earthquakes in the Southern Korean Peninsula

We evaluate the stress field in and around the southern Korean Peninsula with focal mechanism solutions, using the data collected from 71 earthquakes ( M_L = 1.9–5.2) between 1999 and 2004. For this, the hypocentres were relocated and well-constrained fault plane solutions were obtained from the data set of 1270 clear P -wave polarities and 46 SH / P amplitude ratios. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the prevailing faulting types in South Korea are strike-slip-dominant-oblique-slip faultings with minor reverse-slip component. The maximum principal stresses (σ₁) estimated from fault-slip inversion analysis of the focal mechanism solutions show a similar orientation with E–W trend (269°–275°) and low-angle plunge (10°–25°) for all tectonic provinces in South Korea, consistent with the E–W trending maximum horizontal stress (σ_Hmax) of the Amurian microplate reported from in situ stress measurements and earthquake focal mechanisms. The directions of the intermediate (σ₂) and minimum (σ₃) principal stresses of the Gyeongsang Basin are, however, about 90 deg off from those of the other tectonic provinces on a common σ₂–σ₃ plane, suggesting a permutation of σ₂ and σ₃. Our results incorporated with those from the kinematic studies of the Quaternary faults imply that NNW- to NE-striking faults (dextral strike-slip or oblique-slip with a reverse-slip component) are highly likely to generate earthquakes in South Korea.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – II. Interpretation in terms of crack-induced anisotropy

Summary. The polarizations of shear waves recorded by networks of digital three-component seismometers immediately above small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey display shear-wave splitting on almost all shear-wave seismograms recorded within the shear-wave window. This splitting is incompatible with source radiation-patterns propagating through simple isotropic structures but is compatible with effective anisotropy of the internal structure of the rock along the ray paths. This paper interprets the phenomena in terms of widespread crack-induced anisotropy. Distributions of stress-induced cracks model many features of the observations, and synthetic polarization diagrams calculated for propagation through simulated cracked rock are similar to the observed patterns. This evidence for widespread crack-induced anisotropy lends strong support to the hypothesis of extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) suggested by laboratory experiments in subcritical crack-growth. The crucial evidence confirming some form of EDA would be observations of temporal changes in shear-wave splitting as the stress field alters the crack density and crack geometry. There is some weak evidence for such temporal changes at one site, but further analysis of suitable digital three-component seismometer networks in seismic areas is required to confirm EDA.     

Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—I. Response of shear-wave splitting to differential stress

We show that seismic shear waves may be used to monitor the in situ stress state of deep inaccessible rocks in the crust. The most widespread manifestation of the stress-related behaviour of seismic waves is the shear-wave splitting (shear-wave birefringence) observed in almost all rocks, where the polarizations of the leading split shear waves are usually subparallel to the direction of the local maximum horizontal stress. It has been recognized that such shear-wave splitting is typically the result of propagation through distributions of stress-aligned fluid-filled microcracks and pores, known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy or EDA. This paper provides a quantitative basis for the EDA hypothesis. We model the evolution of anisotropic distributions of microcracks in triaxial differential stress, where the driving mechanism is fluid migration along pressure gradients between neighbouring microcracks and pores at different orientations to the stress field. This leads to a non-linear anisotropic poroelasticity (APE) model for the stress-sensitive behaviour of fluid-saturated microcracked rocks. A companion paper shows that APE modelling matches a range of observed phenomena and is a good approximation to the equation of state of a stressed fluid-saturated rock mass.     

Shear wave anisotropy in the crust around the San Andreas fault near Parkfield: spatial and temporal analysis

We systematically analysed shear wave splitting (SWS) for seismic data observed at a temporary array and two permanent networks around the San Andreas Fault (SAF) Observatory at Depth. The purpose was to investigate the spatial distribution of crustal shear wave anisotropy around the SAF in this segment and its temporal behaviour in relation to the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield M 6.0 earthquake. The dense coverage of the networks, the accurate locations of earthquakes and the high-resolution velocity model provide a unique opportunity to investigate anisotropy in detail around the SAF zone. The results show that the primary fast polarization directions (PDs) in the region including the SAF zone and the northeast side of the fault are NW–SE, nearly parallel or subparallel to the SAF strike. Some measurements on the southwest side of the fault are oriented to the NNE–SSW direction, approximately parallel to the direction of local maximum horizontal compressive stress. There are also a few areas in which the observed fast PDs do not fit into this general pattern. The strong spatial variations in both the measured fast PDs and time delays reveal the extreme complexity of shear wave anisotropy in the area. The top 2–3 km of the crust appears to contribute the most to the observed time delays; however substantial anisotropy could extend to as deep as 7–8 km in the region. The average time delay in the region is about 0.06 s. We also analysed temporal patterns of SWS parameters in a nearly 4-yr period around the 2004 Parkfield main shock based on similar events. The results show that there are no appreciable precursory, coseismic, or post-seismic temporal changes of SWS in a region near the rupture of an M 6.0 earthquake, about 15 km away from its epicentre.     

The variation of delays in stress-induced anisotropic polarization anomalies

Summary. Polarization anomalies in seismic shear wavetrains, diagnostic of propagation through anisotropic media, have now been observed in dilatancy zones in seismic regions. Stress-induced dilatancy will open cracks with preferred orientations, which will be effectively anisotropic to short-period seismic waves. The polarization anomalies are due to the shear waves splitting, in propagation through anisotropic media, into components with different polarizations and different velocities. This writes characteristic signatures into the shear wavetrains. The paper examines ways in which the differential shear-wave anisotropy (the delay between the split shear-waves) varies with direction by plotting stereograms of the relative delays, and their polarizations, for possible dilatancy symmetry-systems. It seems likely, that if sufficient observations of these anomalies can be obtained at each stage of the dilatancy episode, it will be possible to estimate the symmetry directions of the dilatancy and the geometry of the stress-induced crack-system, as well as monitoring the progress of the dilatancy episode.     

Dynamic rupture and stress change in a normal faulting earthquake in the subducting Cocos plate

A large nearly vertical, normal faulting earthquake ( M _w = 7.1) took place in 1997 in the Cocos plate, just beneath the ruptured fault zone of the great 1985 Michoacan thrust event ( M _w = 8.1). Dynamic rupture and resultant stress change during the 1997 earthquake have been investigated on the basis of near-source strong-motion records together with a 3-D dynamic model.
Dynamically consistent waveform inversion reveals a highly heterogeneous distribution of stress drop, including patch-like asperities and negative stress-drop zones. Zones of high stress drop are mainly confined to the deeper, southeastern section of the vertical fault, where the maximum dynamic stress drop reaches 280 bars (28 MPa). The dynamically generated source time function varies with location on the fault, and yields a short slip duration, which is caused by a short scalelength of stress-drop heterogeneities. The synthetic seismograms calculated from the dynamic model are generally consistent with the strong-motion velocity records in the frequency range lower than 0.5 Hz.
The pattern of stress-drop distribution appears, in some sense, to be consistent with that of coseismic changes in shear stress resulting from the 1985 thrust event. This consistency suggests that the stress transfer from the 1985 event to the subducting plate could be one of the possible mechanisms that increased the chance of the occurrence of the 1997 earthquake.     

Modelling the effect of atmospheric pressure variations on gravity

Summary. The 1973 Hawaii earthquake occurred north of Hilo, at a depth of 40 to 50km. The location was beneath the east flank of Mauna Kea, a volcano dormant historically, but active within the last 4000 yr. Aftershocks were restricted to a depth of 55–35km. The event and its aftershock sequence are located in an area not normally associated with the seismicity of the Mauna Loa and Kilauea calderas. The earthquake was a double event, the epicentres trending NE-SW. The events were of similar size and faulting mechanism. The fault plane solutions obtained by seismic waveform analysis are a strike-slip fault striking EW and dipping 55° S, the auxiliary plane a NS vertical plane with a faulting plunge of 35°. The axis of maximum compressive stress is aligned with the direction of the gravity gradient associated with the island of Hawaii. The fault plane striking EW parallels a surface feature, the Mauna Kea east rift zone. The earthquakes were clearly not associated with volcanic activity normally associated with Mauna Loa and Kilauea and may indicate a deep seated prelude to a resumption of activity at Mauna Kea.     

Aseismic fault movement before the 1995 Kobe earthquake detected by a GPS survey: implication for preseismic stress localization?

By inversion analysis of the baseline changes and horizontal displacements observed with GPS (Global Positioning System) during 1990–1994, a high-angle reverse fault was detected in the Shikoku-Kinki region, southwest Japan. The active blind fault is characterized by reverse dip-slip (0.7±0.2  m yr⁻¹ within a layer 17–26  km deep) with a length of 208±5  km, a (down-dip) width of 9±2  km, a dip-angle of 51°±2° and a strike direction of 40°±2° (NE). Evidence from the geological investigation of subfaults close to the southwestern portion of the fault, two historical earthquakes ( M _L=7.0, 1789 and 6.4, 1955) near the centre of the fault, and an additional inversion analysis of the baseline changes recorded by the nationwide permanent GPS array from 18 January to 31 December 1995 partially demonstrates the existence of the fault, and suggests that it might be a reactivation of a pre-existing fault in this region. The fact that hardly any earthquakes ( M _L>2.0) occurred at depth on the inferred fault plane suggests that the fault activity was largely aseismic. Based on the parameters of the blind fault estimated in this study, we evaluated stress changes in this region. It is found that shear stress concentrated and increased by up to 2.1 bar yr⁻¹ at a depth of about 20  km around the epicentral area of the 1995 January 17  Kobe earthquake ( M _L=7.2, Japan), and that the earthquake hypocentre received a Coulomb failure stress of about 5.6 bar yr⁻¹ during 1990–1994. The results suggest that the 1995  Kobe earthquake could have been induced or triggered by aseismic fault movement.     

Stress accumulation between volcanoes: an explanation for intra-arc earthquakes in Nicaragua?

Destructive upper crustal earthquakes in Central America are often located between active volcanic centres—a geometric relationship that we study using finite element Coulomb failure stress (CFS) models that incorporate the rheologically heterogeneous nature of the volcanic arc. Volcanoes are simulated as mechanically weak zones within a stronger crust. We find that deformation of the volcanic centres within a regional stress field dominated by dextral shear causes stress increases in surrounding crust, with a maximum CFS change between neighbouring volcanoes. This increase in CFS enhances the probability of fault slip on arc-normal faults that are located between volcanic centres; for example, the Tiscapa fault, which ruptured during the 1972 December 13,   M _s   6.2 Managua earthquake. The amount of stress increase due to long-term (100 yr) volcano shearing is on the order of 0.1–0.6 bars, similar to values estimated for subduction zone earthquakes.