Ground Water Monitoring Statistics Update: Part I: Progress Since 1988

Current federal ground water monitoring statistical regulation dates from the revised RCRA Subtitle C Final Rule of 1988. That rule was a considerable advance over previous RCRA statistical rules. However, two major problem areas remained: facility-wide false positive rate (FWFPR) control and spatial variability. Progress has been made in the 1991 Subtitle D Final Rule and in guidance: the 1992 Addendum to Interim Final Guidance in particular includes a substantial conceptual advance toward resolving the FWFPR problem. Other areas of improvement include normality testing and distribution assumptions, dropping the four independent samples per monitoring period requirement, allowing a preliminary evaluation short of a 40 CFR Part 258 Appendix II assessment upon finding a statistically significant increase, and suggesting superior alternatives to analyses of variance (ANOVAs) and tests of proportions.
The problem of dealing with natural spatial variability remains. Although certain techniques listed in the regulations can control for inherent spatial variability and the performance standards require doing so "when necessary," little attention has been paid to the ubiquity of such spatial variation. Moreover, regulatory traditions favoring upgradient-downgradient comparisons often make control of natural spatial variation difficult and ineffective. With new. lined facilities easily implemented statistical solutions are available; however, dealing with the several existing solid waste facilities which will now be regulated under Subtitle D will present major challenges.
In short, the 1988 revision of the Subtitle C rules made it more possible to provide statistically sound monitoring programs, and there has been steady progress since then. Challenges remain, however. These vary from slate to slate, particularly with regard to controlling false positives and false negatives in the presence of natural spatial variability.     

The third asymptotic distribution of largest magnitudes in the Balkan earthquake provinces

Summary The third asymptotic distribution of the theory of largest values is applied to sixteen earthquake provinces in the Balkan area. The model which assumes an upper magnitude limit fits the observations better than the first distribution. Graphs and tables provide estimates of return periods of largest magnitudes.Communication presented at the XV General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission in Krakow, 22–28 September, 1976.     

Groundwater monitoring strategies for variable contaminant migration boundaries

Abstract

Detection efficiencies of alternative groundwater monitoring networks were evaluated in relation to distance to a buffer zone (contaminant migration) boundary. This boundary establishes a distance limit within which contaminant plumes should pass through monitoring wells, located on curvilinear segments (monitoring loci) near a waste storage facility. Alternative strategies allocated monitoring wells to loci at specified distances, measured parallel to groundwater flow, from the downgradient boundaries of a landfill. One approach constrained wells to equal spacing, measured perpendicular to groundwater flow. Compressing well locations 10% closer to the downgradient corner of the landfill rendered alternative monitoring configurations. Computations by a monitoring efficiency model indicated: (a) networks largely maintained detection efficiency for different contaminant migration boundaries; (b) one network most efficiently attained a target detection capability for all contaminant migration boundaries; and (c) compressed networks slightly outperformed equal-spaced counterparts. Compressed networks with more wells along closer monitoring loci best maintained the detection efficiency when shifting the contaminant migration boundary closer to the landfill. Procedures described in this paper may be useful for examining trade-offs between monitoring efficiency and distance limits of contaminant travel at landfills posing potential hazards to underlying groundwater.     

A Comparative Plume Study of DRO,GRO, Benzene,and MTBE: Implications for Risk Management

Groundwater remediation and no-further action decision making at petroleum underground storage tank (UST) sites has largely been based on an understanding of plume length, plume stability, and attenuation rates for key hydrocarbon constituents. Regulatory guidance to support and guide such decisions is based in part on plume studies involving individual hydrocarbon constituents, namely benzene and methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE). Questions remain regarding whether current guidance is applicable to chemical mixtures such as gasoline range organics (GRO), diesel range organics (DRO), and oxygen containing organic compounds (OCOCs) resulting from hydrocarbon biodegradation. To help address this concern, data from California's GeoTracker database were used to estimate maximum plume lengths, plume stability, and attenuation rates of DRO (which can be used as an analytical surrogate for OCOCs) and GRO relative to benzene and MTBE. The distributions of maximum plume lengths were similar for the four constituents with medians ranging from 27 to 32 m. The fraction of monitoring wells with a decreasing concentration trend ranged from 19% for DRO to 40% for MTBE, while fewer than 7% of the wells had an increasing concentration trend for any of the constituents. Median attenuation rates ranged from 0.10% day⁻¹ for DRO to 0.17% day⁻¹ for MTBE. The results suggest attenuation based risk management is appropriate for DRO and GRO plumes at most petroleum UST sites.     

Limitations of Monitoring Wells for the Detection and Quantification of Petroleum Products in Soils and Aquifers

Theoretical analysis and laboratory column experiments were carried out to investigate the conditions required for petroleum products (oil) to flow into a well installed through a sandy porous medium contaminated with the oil. The results indicated that oil would flow into a well only after a layer of "free oil" is formed in the adjacent porous medium. Because significant quantities of oil could be stored in the porous medium under the influence of capillary suction prior to the formation of the zone of free oil, the presence of oil in a well would indicate an advanced stage of oil contamination of the subsurface. While monitoring wells could be used to delineate the extent of the free-oil plume and the plume of dissolved petroleum constituents, they are not useful for delineating the extent of capillary held oil.
The experimental results also indicated that the ratio of the oil-layer thickness in the well to that in the porous medium is not a constant as is sometimes assumed in practice. Further, estimates of the oil thickness in the medium based on the oil thickness in wells and on capillary properties measured in the laboratory were sensitive to the values of the parameters used in these estimates. The measured thickness of the oil layer in a monitoring well alone may not yield reliable estimates of the amount of oil in the subsurface, and assuming that the oil-thickness ratio is a constant can lead to inadequate site assessments and inappropriate remedial plans.     

Cryogenic Drilling: A New Drilling Method for Environmental Remediation

Cryogenic drilling is a technique developed at the University of California (UC), Berkeley, for drilling in unstable sediments of environmental monitoring, for characterizing, and for remediation wells, The method uses standard air rotary drilling techniques, but with cold nitrogen rather than ambient air as the circulating fluid in order to freeze and stabilize the borehole wall. Several laboratory and full-scale field tests have been performed. A.52-foot-deep (16 m) soil boring and 24 foot (7 m) monitoring well have been drilled as part of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Site Characterization Project. Continued testing and refinement of the equipment and operational method are in progress. The method has been proposed for use as part of the Department of Energy (DOE) weapons site cleanup at locations with unstable sediments such as Hanford, Sandia, and Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL).     

Organic Contaminants in Portland Cements Used in Monitoring Well Construction

We report the results of two independent laboratory investigations to evaluate total and leachable concentrations of glycols, glycol ethers, phenol, and other compounds in representative Type I and Type I/II Portland cement products that United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), The American Society of Testing and Materials (ASTM) and others recommend as annular sealants in monitoring well completions. Water well drillers also use these cements in their well completions. The EPA has included some of these compounds for analysis in their National Hydraulic Fracturing Study to evaluate the effects of hydraulic fracturing on ground‐ and surface water resources. During any contaminant investigation, materials used in monitoring or water well drilling, completion, development, and sampling must be free of the chemicals being targeted by the regulatory agency. Three of five bulk cement products we tested contained part per million (ppm) (mg/kg) concentrations of diethylene glycol, ethylene glycol, tetraethylene glycol, and triethylene glycol; chemicals added as grinding aids during manufacture. Some cements also contained ppb (µg/kg) concentrations of benzoic acid, phenols, propylene glycol, and 2‐butoxyethanol. Leaching of cured cement samples in water produced ppm (mg/L) concentrations of glycols in the supernatant. These results show that cured cements in monitoring or water wells can contaminate groundwater samples with glycols and phenol. Our findings should help prevent future sample bias and false positives when testing for glycol compounds and phenol in groundwater samples from monitoring or water wells and highlight the need to test materials or products used in monitoring or water well drilling, completions, development, and sampling to avoid false positives when sampling and analyzing for less common analytical constituents.     

Atrazine in a Stream-Aquifer System: Estimation of Aquifer Properties from Atrazine Concentration Profiles

Lincolns municipal wellfield consists of 44 wells developed in an alluvial aquifer adjacent to the Platte River near Ashland, Nebraska Induced recharge from the river is the primary source of water for the wellfield. Wafer samples were collected on a periodic basis from the Platte River arid two transects of monitoring wells. These samples were analyzed for the herbicide atrazine, which was used as a tracer of induced recharge in this stream-aquifer system. Atrazine concentrations in the river and aquifer were much less than 1.0 ppb during late fall and winter, but increased to as high as 18.9 ppb during spring and summer, associated with runoff from upgradient agricultural lands. There was approximately a 21-day lag time from the first detection of increasing atrazine concentration in the river to the first detection in monitoring wells immediately adjacent to the river. This lag time was relatively constant throughout the year and from one year to the next, even with major fluctuations of river stage and wellfield production. This consistency of lag time indicated that the travel times from the river to the first set of monitoring wells immediately adjacent to the river were fairly constant.
Paths of preferential flow were identified in the aquifer at a depth of 25 to 35 feet below land surface. This aquifer zone appeared to play a significant role in movement of water from beneath the river into the wellfield.
Aquifer dispersivity was calculated using a method described by Hoehn and Santschi (1987). Macrodispersivity (A_L) was shown to increase linearly over the scale of the wellfield. Calculated values of A_L were within limits of other reported values for this type of aquifer material and agreed well with values reported by Hoehn and Santschi (1987); These findings will be extremely beneficial for planning and management of the municipal wellfield.     

Monitoring well interception with fractures in clayey till

When using monitoring wells for investigation of contaminant sources in clayey till, there is a high risk that fractures may cause mobile contaminants to bypass the monitoring wells. This paper indicates that the probability of interception between monitoring wells and hydraulic conductive fractures is often significantly less than 50%. Based on a field experiment and application of a calibrated discrete fracture matrix diffusion numerical model (FRAC3Dvs), the paper also evaluates pesticide-monitoring results for different positions of monitoring well screen relative to fractures. For well screens situated 0.25 and 2 m from a conductive fracture, the first concentrations of the pesticide metabolite (2,6 dichlorobenzamide, "BAM") would be measured two years and 18 years, respectively, after the contaminant had been transported into an underlying aquifer. In this way, underlying aquifers may be subjected to contamination by downward moving contamination without being observed in monitoring wells in the till.     

水汞测量过程中干扰因素的探讨

汞是地下流体监测预报地震的灵敏组分之一,针对目前汞观测网中出现的突出问题——汞测量方法中的干扰因素进行了剖析,指出蒸馏水、化学试剂、温度和吸附作用是造成观测结果波动大的主要原因,并提出了减少误差、排除干扰和识别异常的方法。     

Temporal (Un)correlations Between Coda <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> and Seismicity: Multiscale Trend Analysis

This paper introduces a statistical technique, based on the recently developed Multiscale Trend Analysis (MTA), for quantifying correlations between non-stationary processes observed at irregular non-coincident time grids. We apply this technique to studying the temporal correlation between the dynamics of the ductile and brittle layers in the lithosphere. Our results confirm the previously reported strong positive correlation between the coda Q^–1 and seismicity and its drop before major earthquakes observed in California. The proposed technique has significant advantages over the conventional correlation analysis: (1) MTA allows one to work directly with non-coincident time series without preliminary resampling the data; (2) the correlation is defined via the stable objects—trends—rather than noisy individual observations, hence it is highly robust; (3) the correlations are quantified at different time scales. The suggested technique seems promising for the wide range of applied problems dealing with coupled time series.     

Movement of water infiltrated from a recharge basin to wells

Local surface water and stormflow were infiltrated intermittently from a 40-ha basin between September 2003 and September 2007 to determine the feasibility of recharging alluvial aquifers pumped for public supply, near Stockton, California. Infiltration of water produced a pressure response that propagated through unconsolidated alluvial-fan deposits to 125 m below land surface (bls) in 5 d and through deeper, more consolidated alluvial deposits to 194 m bls in 25 d, resulting in increased water levels in nearby monitoring wells. The top of the saturated zone near the basin fluctuates seasonally from depths of about 15 to 20 m. Since the start of recharge, water infiltrated from the basin has reached depths as great as 165 m bls. On the basis of sulfur hexafluoride tracer test data, basin water moved downward through the saturated alluvial deposits until reaching more permeable zones about 110 m bls. Once reaching these permeable zones, water moved rapidly to nearby pumping wells at rates as high as 13 m/d. Flow to wells through highly permeable material was confirmed on the basis of flowmeter logging, and simulated numerically using a two-dimensional radial groundwater flow model. Arsenic concentrations increased slightly as a result of recharge from 2 to 6 μg/L immediately below the basin. Although few water-quality issues were identified during sample collection, high groundwater velocities and short travel times to nearby wells may have implications for groundwater management at this and at other sites in heterogeneous alluvial aquifers.     

Characterizing the spatial variability of groundwater quality using the entropy theory: II. Case study from Gaza Strip

This paper, the second in the series, uses the entropy theory to describe the spatial variability of groundwater quality data sets. The application of the entropy theory is illustrated using the chloride observations obtained from a network of groundwater quality monitoring wells in the Gaza Strip, Palestine. The application involves calculating information measures, such as transinformation, the information transfer index and the correlation coefficient. These measures are calculated using a discrete approach, in which contingency tables are used. An exponential decay fitting approach was applied to the discrete models. The analysis shows that transinformation, as a function of distance, can be represented by the exponential decay curve. It also indicates that, for the data used in this study, the transinformation model is superior to the correlation model for characterizing the spatial variability. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

巢湖蓝藻水华监测预警与模拟分析平台设计与实践

近20年来,巢湖蓝藻水华频繁暴发,对流域内居民生活和社会生产产生了严重影响.由于缺乏蓝藻水华全方位监测、高精度模拟和智能化分析手段,传统方法难以实现"现状掌握、异常识别、原因追溯、未来模拟"的目标,无法满足巢湖蓝藻水华科学防控与应急处置的要求,蓝藻水华引起的突发事件随时可能发生.本文针对巢湖蓝藻水华的全面监测和应急决策...     

Earthquake source nucleation process in the zone of a permanently creeping deep fault

The worldwide practice of earthquake prediction, whose beginning relates to the 1970s, shows that spatial manifestations of various precursors under real seismotectonic conditions are very irregular. As noted in [Kurbanov et al., 1980], zones of bending, intersection, and branching of deep faults, where conditions are favorable for increasing tangential tectonic stresses, serve as “natural amplifiers” of precursory effects. The earthquake of September 28, 2004, occurred on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas deep fault in the area of a local bending of its plane. The fault segment about 60 km long and its vicinities are the oldest prognostic area in California. Results of observations before and after the earthquake were promptly analyzed and published in a special issue of Seismological Research Letters (2005, Vol. 76, no. 1). We have an original method enabling the monitoring of the integral rigidity of seismically active rock massifs. The integral rigidity is determined from the relative numbers of brittle and viscous failure acts during the formation of source ruptures of background earthquakes in a given massif. Fracture mechanisms are diagnosed from the steepness of the first arrival of the direct P wave. Principles underlying our method are described in [Lykov and Mostryukov, 1996, 2001, 2003]. Results of monitoring have been directly displayed at the site of the Laboratory (http://wwwbrk.adm.yar.ru/russian/1_512/index.html) since the mid-1990s. It seems that this information has not attracted the attention of American seismologists. This paper assesses the informativeness of the rigidity monitoring at the stage of formation of a strong earthquake source in relation to other methods.     

Electromagnetic‐Induction Logging to Monitor Changing Chloride Concentrations

Water from the San Joaquin Delta, having chloride concentrations up to 3590 mg/L, has intruded fresh water aquifers underlying Stockton, California. Changes in chloride concentrations at depth within these aquifers were evaluated using sequential electromagnetic (EM) induction logs collected during 2004 through 2007 at seven multiple‐well sites as deep as 268 m. Sequential EM logging is useful for identifying changes in groundwater quality through polyvinyl chloride‐cased wells in intervals not screened by wells. These unscreened intervals represent more than 90% of the aquifer at the sites studied. Sequential EM logging suggested degrading groundwater quality in numerous thin intervals, typically between 1 and 7 m in thickness, especially in the northern part of the study area. Some of these intervals were unscreened by wells, and would not have been identified by traditional groundwater sample collection. Sequential logging also identified intervals with improving water quality—possibly due to groundwater management practices that have limited pumping and promoted artificial recharge. EM resistivity was correlated with chloride concentrations in sampled wells and in water from core material. Natural gamma log data were used to account for the effect of aquifer lithology on EM resistivity. Results of this study show that a sequential EM logging is useful for identifying and monitoring the movement of high‐chloride water, having lower salinities and chloride concentrations than sea water, in aquifer intervals not screened by wells, and that increases in chloride in water from wells in the area are consistent with high‐chloride water originating from the San Joaquin Delta rather than from the underlying saline aquifer.     

Identifying the potential loss of monitoring wells using an uncertainty analysis

From the mid-1940s through the 1980s, large volumes of waste water were discharged at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State, causing a large-scale rise (>20 m) in the water table. When waste water discharges ceased in 1988, ground water mounds began to dissipate. This caused a large number of wells to go dry and has made it difficult to monitor contaminant plume migration. To identify monitoring wells that will need replacement, a methodology has been developed using a first-order uncertainty analysis with UCODE, a nonlinear parameter estimation code. Using a three-dimensional, finite-element ground water flow code, key parameters were identified by calibrating to historical hydraulic head data. Results from the calibration period were then used to check model predictions by comparing monitoring wells' wet/dry status with field data. This status was analyzed using a methodology that incorporated the 0.3 cumulative probability derived from the confidence and prediction intervals. For comparison, a nonphysically based trend model was also used as a predictor of wells' wet/dry status. Although the numerical model outperformed the trend model, for both models, the central value of the intervals was a better predictor of a wet well status. The prediction interval, however, was more successful at identifying dry wells. Predictions made through the year 2048 indicated that 46% of the wells in the monitoring well network are likely to go dry in areas near the river and where the ground water mound is dissipating.     

Statistical Comparison of Leachate from Hazardous, Codisposal, and Municipal Solid Waste Landfills

There has been considerable debate regarding the chemical characterization of landfill leachate in general and the comparison of various types of landfill leachate (e.g., hazardous, codisposal, and municipal) in particular. For example, the preamble to the U.S. EPA Subtitle D regulation (40 CFR Parts 257 and 258) suggests that there are no significant differences between the number and concentration of toxic constituents in hazardous versus municipal solid waste landfill leachate. The purpose of this paper is to statistically test this hypothesis in a large leachate database comprising 1490 leachate samples from 283 sample points (i.e., monitoring location such as a leachate sump) in 93 landfill waste cells (i.e., a section of a facility that took a specific waste slream or collection of similar waste streams) from 48 sites with municipal, codisposal, or hazardous waste site histories. Results of the analysis reveal clear differention between landfill leachate types, both in terms of constituents detected and their concentrations. The result of the analysis is a classification function that can estimate the probability that new leachate or ground water sample was produced by the disposal of municipal, codisposal, or hazardous waste. This type of computation is illustrated, and applications of the model to Superfund cost-allocation problems are discussed.     

In-Well Degassing Issues for Measurements of Dissolved Gases in Groundwater

Measurement of dissolved gases in groundwater is becoming increasingly common and important. Many of these measurements involve monitoring or sampling within wells or from water pumped from wells. We used total dissolved gas pressure (TDGP) sensors placed in the screened section of various wells (4 to 72 m deep) to assess the dissolved gas conditions for open wells compared to the conditions when sealed (i.e., isolated from the atmosphere) with a hydraulic packer (one well) or when pumped. When the packer was installed (non-pumping conditions), TDGP rose from <1.7 to >3.1 atm (<172 to >314 kPa), with declines noted when the packer was removed or deflated. While pumping, TDGP measured in many of the wells rose to substantially higher levels, up to 4.0 atm (408 kPa) in one case. Thus, when groundwater is gas charged, the background aquifer TDGP, and likewise the dissolved gas concentrations, may be substantially higher than initially measured in open wells, indicating significant in-well degassing. This raises concerns about past and current methods of measuring the dissolved gases in groundwater. Additional procedures that may be required to obtain representative measurements from wells include (1) installing in-well hydraulic packers to seal the well, or (2) pumping to bring in fresh groundwater. However, observed transient decreased TDGPs during pumping, believed to result from gas bubble formation induced by drawdown in the well below a critical pressure (relative to TDGP), may disrupt the measurements made during or after pumping. Thus, monitoring TDGP while pumping gas-charged wells is recommended.     

Stream Temperature Trends in Turkey

Stream temperature is an important property of water and affects most other water quality constituents. It is also a property which is very much influenced by exogenous factors like air temperature and stream flow. This study investigates long‐term trends in stream temperatures measured at various stream monitoring stations in Turkey to better understand links with climate change. It was found by statistical trend analysis that more streams have experienced decreasing trends than increasing ones. Moreover, stream temperatures show a rising tendency in most stations over Turkey. Flow‐adjusted temperatures were computed to eliminate flow dependency and these show more positive than negative trends. Management plans of streams and watersheds need to take this into account and incorporate the implications into plans.