Understanding climate coping as a basis for strategic climate change adaptation – The case of Queenstown-Lake Wanaka,New Zealand

Weather conditions that influence natural resource-based tourist destinations are likely to be affected by climate change, but our understanding of how businesses and destinations manage for present and future conditions is limited. In this study we report on the relationships between weather and tourism activities in the Queenstown-Lake Wanaka region, South Island, New Zealand. Key stakeholder interviews and a workshop form the empirical basis of this paper. Coping range application ideas derived from ecological management literature are used to develop a framework to understand and inform thinking and strategies around how tourism businesses and destinations are currently responding to the weather and perhaps could in future respond to climate change. Results show that within a destination individual businesses have widely varying relationships with the weather, with each type of activity operating within its own coping range to particular environmental gradients, for example temperature. Coping, which can be observed outside the ‘ideal’ range of a particular environmental gradient, requires business adjustments so as to cope with increasingly marginal conditions, up to a Critical Stop Point – the ultimate threshold. The data suggest that increased need for adjustments impacts on business viability, and more planned adaptation measures would be necessary to increase viability under increasingly detrimental climatic conditions. Discussion at a destination level workshop indicates that at and beyond thresholds, keystone industry and destination level strategic adaptation planning is required to ensure the viability of the destination as a whole.     

Diversity to decline-livelihood adaptations of the Namaqua Khoikhoi (1800–1900)

An environmental history of the Leliefontein community of Namaqualand, Northern Cape provides a detailed case of the nexus between social and ecological stresses shaping livelihood change. By combining an historical proxy precipitation data set with a livelihood change study the value of historical research in integrated studies of past human-environment systems is illustrated. The identification of effective livelihood adaptation to extreme climatic conditions is examined, illustrating the tradeoffs made between adaptation and ‘coping’ strategies which were unsuccessful over the long term. During the course of the 19th century the Namaqua Khoikhoi population changed from a sustainable nomadic pastoral community to a poverty stricken rural community with a diversity of livelihood strategies. For the Namaqua increased livelihood diversity – usually an effective adaptation in times of stress – instead of promoting resilience, contributed to their material decline. Widespread transhumance between different climatic regions is shown to have been a successful adaptation to climatic extremes, but external economic exposure and restricted access to land become drivers of decline. The ‘double exposure’ framework used in contemporary studies, proved useful in accounting for this decline as it can accommodate both environmental and economic stressors.     

适应性治理与气候变化：内蒙古草原案例分析与对策探讨

适应性治理通过边学边做,针对各地方的社会经济条件、自然生态系统、地方知识文化等基本特征,基于一个动态、自下而上和自组织的过程不断测试和修正制度安排与知识体系,形成一个旨在解决实际问题的循环过程。通过内蒙古3个地区案例的对比分析研究,基于对其气候变化风险和社会脆弱性的评估,发现其在气候变化影响下形成的不同程度的社会脆弱性正是源于不同的草原利用机制和基于此的社会合作机制。正是因为3个案例地的牧民有着不同的社会资本和社会记忆,所以他们面对极端天气导致的自然灾害时,采取了不同的应对方式,有的牧户可以依赖于社会资本移动牲畜来渡过难关,有的牧户则可以在嘎查范围内重启社会记忆,通过合理安排草场利用和移动牲畜提高自身的抗灾能力,而有的牧户则只能通过买草料独立抗灾。这样不同的结果有力证明了适应性治理在提升这些地区气候变化应对能力方面的必要性和可行性。在地区层面引入适应性治理,可以满足各利益相关方的需求,有利于自然、社会及管理的多学科协同,与“未来地球计划”的协同设计、协同实施和协同推广理念不谋而合,是“未来地球”思想在气候变化适应研究中的实践。     

Smallholder Maize Production and Climatic Risk: A Case Study from Mexico

The article explores the strategies employed by smallholder farmers in Mexico to cope with the affects of climatic variability, and how seasonal climate forecasts may assist these farmers in mitigating climatic risk. Recognizing that the decisions of smallholder farmers are intricately tied to the political-economic circumstances in which they operate, the article discusses how agricultural policy in Mexico affects the vulnerability of small-scale producers and may inhibit their ability to use climatic forecasts to their advantage. The article first reviews the literature on smallholder adaptation in Mexico, and discusses briefly policy and institutional issues affecting adaptation at the farm-level. Using the case of small-scale maize producers in Tlaxcala, Mexico, as an illustration, the article then argues that political-economic uncertainty outweighs climatic variability as a determinant of the production strategies of small-scale producers. In these circumstances, the farmers are unlikely to use new seasonal climate forecasts.     

Unpacking multilevel adaptation to climate change in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

Multilevel governance is regarded as a promising approach to deal with the multidimensional nature of climate change adaptation. However, the policy context in which it is implemented is very often complex and fragmented, characterised by interacting climate and non-climate strategies. An understanding of multilevel decision-making and governance is particularly important, if desired adaptation outcomes are to be achieved. This paper examines how climate change adaptation takes place in a complex multilevel system of governance, in the context of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region. It examines over one hundred adaptation strategies at federal, state, regional and local levels in terms of type, manifestation, purposefulness, drivers and triggers, and geographic and temporal scope. Interactions between strategies are investigated both at the same level of governance and across governance levels. This study demonstrates that multilevel approach is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition in responding to complex multiscale and multisector issues, such as climate change adaptation. Short-term adaptation measures; a predominant incremental, sectoral, top-down approach to adaptation; and the lack of a framework for managing interactions are major threats to effective climate adaptation in the GBR region. Coping with such threats will require long-term transformative action, establishing enabling conditions to support local adaptation, and, most important, creating and maintaining strategic interactions among adaptation strategies. Coordinating and integrating climate and non-climate strategies across jurisdictions and policy sectors are the most significant and challenging tasks for multilevel governance in the GBR region and elsewhere.     

Health and climatic hazards: Framing social research on vulnerability,response and adaptation

Floods, windstorms, drought and wildfires have major implications for human health. To date, conceptual advances in analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to climatic hazards from the environmental and social sciences have not been widely applied in terms of health, though key progress is being made particularly in relation to climate change. This paper seeks to take this conceptual grounding further, examining how key themes relate to health concerns, exploring connections with existing health literatures, and developing an organising framework to aid analysis of how vulnerability to health impacts varies within society and how actors make decisions and take action in relation to climatic hazards and health. Social science research on this theme is challenging in part because of the complex mechanisms that link hazard events to health outcomes, and the many-layered factors that shape differential vulnerability and response within changing societal and environmental contexts (including the dual effect of hazards on human health and health systems, and the combination of ‘external’, ‘personal’ and ‘internal’ elements of vulnerability). Tracing a ‘health impact pathway’ from hazard event through health risk effects to health outcomes can provide a research tool with which to map out where the different factors that contribute to vulnerability/coping capacity come into effect.     

The adaptation and mitigation potential of traditional agriculture in a changing climate

The threat of global climate change has caused concern among scientists because crop production could be severely affected by changes in key climatic variables that could compromise food security both globally and locally. Although it is true that extreme climatic events can severely impact small farmers, available data is just a gross approximation at understanding the heterogeneity of small scale agriculture ignoring the myriad of strategies that thousands of traditional farmers have used and still use to deal with climatic variability. Scientists have now realized that many small farmers cope with and even prepare for climate change, minimizing crop failure through a series of agroecological practices. Observations of agricultural performance after extreme climatic events in the last two decades have revealed that resiliency to climate disasters is closely linked to the high level of on-farm biodiversity, a typical feature of traditional farming systems.Based on this evidence, various experts have suggested that rescuing traditional management systems combined with the use of agroecologically based management strategies may represent the only viable and robust path to increase the productivity, sustainability and resilience of peasant-based agricultural production under predicted climate scenarios. In this paper we explore a number of ways in which three key traditional agroecological strategies (biodiversification, soil management and water harvesting) can be implemented in the design and management of agroecosystems allowing farmers to adopt a strategy that both increases resilience and provides economic benefits, including mitigation of global warming.     

Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt?

Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development.     

Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning

This study explores the implications of recent extreme rainfall and flood events in the Sahel and the wider West African region for climate change adaptation. Are these events merely a temporal nuisance as suggested by the lingering desertification discourse or will more climatic extremes characterize the region over the next century? After reviewing incidences of severe rainfall and projected future climate variability, the paper examines local flood knowledge and decision-making, drawing upon a case study in Ghana. The data demonstrate that a variety of response strategies to flooding exist; yet, knowledge of and access to climate forecasts and other learning tools are essentially absent. So far, floods have not triggered mass displacement although cumulative environmental deterioration is likely to cause environmental refugees. The paper recommends to lay to rest the desertification narrative, consider the possibility of both floods and droughts, and mobilize local memory for anticipatory learning and practical adaptation.     

Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt?

Abstract

Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development.     

Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies

For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). This paper reviews seven National Adaptation Strategies that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008. The strategies are analysed under the following six themes. Firstly, the factors motivating and facilitating the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms of multi-level governance to implement the proposed actions. Fifthly, how the strategy addresses integration and coordination with other policy domains. Finally, how the strategy suggests the implementation and how the strategy is evaluated. The paper notes that the role of National Adaptation Strategies in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even though the strategies show great resemblance in terms of topics, methods and approaches, there are many institutional challenges, including multi-level governance and policy integration issues, which can act as considerable barriers in future policy implementation.     

The 2007 dry spell in Luzon (Philippines): its cause, impact and corresponding response measures

Climate change, involving both human-induced global warming and natural climate variability, has been called upon to explain the occurrences of weather extremes with their associated natural hazards. The Philippines experienced a dry spell in 2007 specifically in parts of Luzon which occurred during the rainy season. On the other hand, areas in Mindanao, southern Philippines which were supposed to be dry, were wet due to the non-migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone northward. The 2007 dry spell in Luzon, northern Philippines affected the agricultural, power, water and health sectors. The local effects of this weather extreme have to be documented and studied to ensure that the appropriate response measures are adopted should there be a recurrence. The building up of the database on this weather extreme and related natural hazards will definitely help the country cope with future similar events.     

Prioritising resilience policies to reduce welfare losses from natural disasters: A case study for coastal Bangladesh

Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind.     

Damaging Rainfall and Flooding: The Other Sahel Hazards

Damaging rainfall and rain-induced flooding occur from time to time in the drought-prone Sahel savanna zone of Niger in West Africa but official records of these events and their socioeconomic impacts do not exist. This paper utilized newspaper accounts between 1970 and 2000 to survey and illustrate the range of these flood hazards in the Sahel. During the study interval, 53 newspaper articles reported 79 damaging rainfall and flood events in 47 different communities in the Sahel of Niger. Collectively, these events destroyed 5,580 houses and rendered 27,289 people homeless. Cash losses and damage to infrastructure in only three events exceeded $4 million. Sahel residents attribute these floods to five major causes including both natural and anthropogenic, but they view the flood problem as driven primarily by land use patterns. Despite such awareness, traditional coping strategies appear inadequate for dealing with the problems in part because of significant climatic variability. Analysis of several rainfall measures indicates that the cumulative rainfall in the days prior to a heavy rain event is an important factor influencing whether or not heavy rainfall results in flooding. Thus, despite some limitations, newspaper accounts of historical flooding are largely consistent with measured climatic variables. The study demonstrates that concerted effort is needed to improve the status of knowledge concerning flood impacts and indeed other natural and human hazards in the Sahel.     

Views from the vulnerable: Understanding climatic and other stressors in the Sahel

In much of sub-Saharan Africa, considerable research exists on the impacts of climate change on social-ecological systems. Recent adaptation studies emphasize sectoral vulnerability and largely physical adaptation strategies that mirror anti-desertification plans. The adaptive role of subsistence farmers, the vulnerable ‘target’ population, is largely overlooked. This article aims to fill this gap by putting the views from the vulnerable in the center of the analysis. Drawing from participatory risk ranking and scoring among smallholders in central Senegal, data on multiple hazards indicate that farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change is undermined by poor health, rural unemployment, and inadequate village infrastructure. Results from conceptual mapping reveal incomplete understanding of causes and consequences of climate change. Yet, shared knowledge and lessons learned from previous climatic stresses provide vital entry points for social learning and enhanced adaptive capacity to both wetter and drier periods now and in the future.     

Adaptation,adaptive capacity and vulnerability

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs.     

‘Strange changes’: Indigenous perspectives of climate change and adaptation in NE Arnhem Land (Australia)

Despite growing global attention to the development of strategies and policy for climate change adaptation, there has been little allowance for input from Indigenous people. In this study we aimed to improve understanding of factors important in integration of Yolngu perspectives in planning adaptation policy in North East Arnhem Land (Australia). We conducted workshops and in-depth interviews in two ‘communities’ to develop insight into Yolngu peoples’ observations and perspectives on climate change, and their ideas and preferences for adaptation. All participants reported observing changes in their ecological landscape, which they attributed to mining, tourism ‘development’, and climate change. ‘Strange changes’ noticed particularly in the last five years, had caused concern and anxiety among many participants. Despite their concern about ecological changes, participants were primarily worried about other issues affecting their community's general welfare. The results suggest that strategies and policies are needed to strengthen adaptive capacity of communities to mitigate over-arching poverty and well-being issues, as well as respond to changes in climate. Participants believed that major constraints to strengthening adaptive capacity had external origins, at regional, state and federal levels. Examples are poor communication and engagement, top-down institutional processes that allow little Indigenous voice, and lack of recognition of Indigenous culture and practices. Participants’ preferences for strategies to strengthen community adaptive capacity tended to be those that lead towards greater self-sufficiency, independence, empowerment, resilience and close contact with the natural environment. Based on the results, we developed a simple model to highlight main determinants of community vulnerability. A second model highlights components important in facilitating discourse on enhancing community capacity to adapt to climatic and other stressors.     

Climatic change impacts on the ecohydrology of Mediterranean watersheds

Impact of climate change on ecohydrologic processes of Mediterranean watersheds are significant and require quick action toward improving adaptation and management of fragile system. Increase in water shortages and land use can alter the water balance and ecological health of the watershed systems. Intensification of land use, increase in water abstraction, and decline in water quality can be enhanced by changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Ecohydrologic changes from climatic impacts alter runoff, evapotranspiration, surface storage, and soil moisture that directly affect biota and habitat of the region. This paper reviews expected impacts of climatic change on the ecohydrology of watershed systems of the Mediterranean and identifies adaptation strategies to increase the resilience of the systems. A spatial assessment of changes in temperature and precipitation estimates from a multimodel ensemble is used to identify potential climatic impacts on watershed systems. This is augmented with literature on ecohydrologic impacts in watershed systems of the region. Hydrologic implications are discussed through the lens of geographic distribution and upstream-downstream dynamics in watershed systems. Specific implications of climatic change studied are on runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, lake levels, water quality, habitat, species distribution, biodiversity, and economic status of countries. It is observed that climatic change can have significant impacts on the ecohydrologic processes in the Mediterranean watersheds. Vulnerability varied depending on the geography, landscape characteristics, and human activities in a watershed. Increasing the resilience of watershed systems can be an effective strategy to adapt to climatic impacts. Several strategies are identified that can increase the resilience of the watersheds to climatic and land use change stress. Understanding the ecohydrologic processes is vital to development of effective long-term strategies to improve the resilience of watersheds. There is need for further research into ecohydrologic dynamics at multiple scales, improved resolution of climatic predictions to local scales, and implications of disruptions on regional economies.     

An essay on the impact of climate change on US agriculture: weather fluctuations, climatic shifts, and adaptation strategies

The impact of climate change on US agriculture has been debated for more than two decades, but the estimates ranged from no damage at the lower end to 80 % losses of grain yields at the higher end. This essay aims to help understand such divergent predictions by clarifying the concepts of weather and climate. First, the widely-read panel fixed effects models capture only the impacts of weather fluctuations but not of climate normals. Random weather fluctuations and climatic shifts are two different meteorological events and they have distinct implications on farming decisions. The former is perceived as random while the latter is perceived as non-random by the farmers. Using the historical corn yield data in the US, I explain the differences between the impact of random weather and that of climate change. Second, adaptation strategies to climatic changes and increased climate risks cannot be accounted for by the panel fixed effects models. Using the farm household data collected in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, I discuss quantitative significance of modeling adaptation strategies in the estimates of climate damage. Distinction between random weather fluctuations and climatic shifts is critical in modeling farming decisions, as they are fundamental to climate science, but is poorly understood by the impact researchers.