Homogenization and trend analysis of 1960–2015 in situ sea surface temperature observations along the coast of China

Sea surface temperature(SST) measurements from 26 coastal hydrological stations of China during 1960–2015 were homogenized and analyzed in this study. The homogenous surface air temperature(SAT) series from meteorological stations which were highly correlated to SST series was used to construct the reference series.Monthly mean SST series were then derived and subjected to a statistical homogeneity test, called penalized maximal t test. Homogenized monthly mean SST series were obtained by adjusting all significant change points which were supported by historic metadata information. Results show that the majority of break points are caused by instrument change and station relocation, which accounts for about 61.3% and 24.2% of the total break points,respectively. The regionally averaged annual homogeneous SST series from the 26 stations shows a warming trend(0.19°C per decade). This result is consistent with that based on the homogenized annual mean SAT at the same region(0.22°C per decade), while the regionally averaged mean original SST series from the same stations shows a much weaker warming of 0.09°C per decade for 1960–2015. This finding suggests that the effects of artificial change points on the result of trend analysis are remarkable, and the warming rate from original SST observations since 1960 may be underestimated. Thus a high quality homogenized observation is crucial for robust detection and assessment of regional climate change. Furthermore, the trends of the seasonal mean homogenized SST were also analyzed. This work confirmed that there was an asymmetric seasonal temperature trends in the Chinese coastal water in the past decades, with the largest warming rate occurring in winter. At last,the significant warming in winter and its relationships to the variability of three large-scale atmospheric modes were investigated.     

IPCC AR4模式对热带气旋热力控制因子的模拟评估

海平面温度是影响热带气旋活动重要的大尺度环境热力控制因子,根据1948-1999年热带地区(30°S-30°N)海平面温度(SST)的气候场、线性趋势、年代际变化与年际变化的空间结构特征,分别就24个IPCC AR4模式的模拟性能进行评估.结果表明,虽然24个IPCC AR4模式对SST气候场的模拟性能都比较好,但大部...     

Variation in the intensity of tropical cyclones in connection with global warming

In connection with global warming, the growth in the intensity of tropical hurricanes is predicted. The onset of this intensification is partially illustrated by the western Atlantic cyclonic zone [1]. It is noted in [1]that, due to global warming, the sea-surface temperature (SST) over the entire world has increased by 0.6°C since 1970. Since the SST basically determines the energy of tropical hurricanes, it is inferred that global warming will lead to an enhancement in their intensity. This publication presents a plot of the dynamics of SST annual mean anomalies for the northwestern Atlantic and pays special attention to significant excess mean temperatures since 1994. The anomalies are determined with respect to the mean temperature calculated from SSTs over 1901–1970. The same plot also shows that the SST at the end of the 1940s and during the 1950s exceeded the mean temperature by about 0.3 or even 0.4°C, decreasing gradually to negative anomalies (?0.3°C) in 1973. After that, the temperature started to increase again. Figure 1 shows a detail of this plot, which relates to the period 1950–2000.     

Relationships between long-term ocean warming,marine heat waves and primary production in the New Zealand region

ABSTRACT

We test the paradigm that in a future warmer ocean, shallower winter mixing will lead to less net primary production (NPP), by investigating whether warming between 2002 and 2018 led to changes in NPP in the Tasman Sea/New Zealand region. The 2002–18 trend in sea surface temperature (SST) was positive over most of the region, and was driven by increasingly warmer summers and marine heat waves (MHWs) rather than year-round warming. In contrast, the trends in sea surface chlorophyll (SSC) and NPP were generally positive over the Subtropical Front (STF) and in a subtropical band north-east of New Zealand, but negative elsewhere. Regressions between SSC and SST, and between spring SSC and the coldest SST during the preceding winter, show similar spatial patterns to the SSC trend. We suggest these findings reflect different ecosystem functioning in the subtropical and subantarctic biomes that are separated by the STF. We conclude that any future warming is likely to lead to less production in the Tasman Sea, but more production over the STF. Three recent MHWs had different impacts on production, but generally led to less surface biomass north of the STF and more biomass south of the front.     

基于均一化观测序列的成山头海表温度气候变化特征分析

文中利用加拿大环境部气候研究中心研发的惩罚最大t检验方法,选取均一的邻近气象站为参考站,结合元数据信息,对1960-2017年成山头海洋站海表温度序列进行了均一性检验与订正。利用订正后的海表温度序列对成山头海温气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明,订正前后年平均海表温度趋势发生了明显改变,表现出海温上升趋势较订正前加强的特征,增暖趋势由订正前的0.04℃/10 a上升到0.15℃/10 a,其中最暖的5个年份多发生在1980年以后,分别为1973年、1989年、2002年、2007年和2017年。海表温度总体呈显著上升趋势和明显的年代际波动,20世纪60年代至80年代末为偏冷阶段,之后开始增暖,20世纪90年代至今为偏暖阶段。1960-2017年,成山头的海温突变点在1987年,是一次增暖性突变,与中国大陆的气温突变特征和气温变化阶段性特征非常一致。     

The Indian Ocean’s asymmetric effect on the coupling of the Northwest Pacific SST and anticyclone anomalies during its spring–summer transition after El Niño

By comparing different climatologies in El Niño decaying summer with regard to the presence of Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) warming, we studied the effect of IOB warming on the Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the coupling process with the surface wind. Zonal asymmetric coupling feedback in the west and east of the Northwest Pacific were caused by the asymmetric spring–summer transition of the background tropical atmospheric circulation. Although the westward wind anomaly caused by the remote effect of IOB warming is found in the whole Northwest Pacific, reversal of the mean background surface winds in the western part leads to negative wind-evaporation SST (WES), whereas sustained trade winds lead to positive WES in the eastern part. The east–west SST gradient resulting from this zonal asymmetric evolution of SST sets off more positive feedback that strengthens the local anticyclone easterly anomalies.     

Decadal variability of the shallow Pacific meridional overturning circulation: Relation to tropical sea surface temperatures in observations and climate change models

In this study, we use existing observational datasets to evaluate 20th century climate simulations of the tropical Pacific. The emphasis of our work is decadal variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation, which links the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean. In observations, this circulation is characterized by equatorward geostrophic volume transport convergence in the interior ocean pycnocline across 9°N and 9°S. Historical hydrographic data indicate that there has been a decreasing trend in this convergence over the period 1953–2001 of about 11 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹), with maximum decade-to-decade variations of 7–11 Sv. The transport time series is highly anti-correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, implying that variations in meridional overturning circulation are directly linked to decadal variability and trends in tropical SST. These relationships are explored in 18 model simulations of 20th century climate from 14 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Significant correlation exists between meridional volume transport convergence and tropical SST in the majority of the models over the last half century. However, the magnitude of transport variability on decadal time scales in the models is underestimated while at the same time modeled SST variations are more sensitive to that transport variability than in the observations. The effects of the meridional overturning circulation on SST trends in most the models is less clear. Most models show no trend in meridional transport convergence and underestimate the trend in eastern tropical Pacific SST. The eddy permitting MIROCH model is the only model that reasonably reproduces the observed trends in transport convergence, tropical Pacific SST, and SST gradient along the equator over the last half century. If the observed trends and those simulated in the MIROCH model are ultimately related to greenhouse gas forcing, these results suggest that the Bjerknes feedback, by affecting pycnocline transport convergences, may enhance warming that arises from anthropogenic forcing in the eastern tropical Pacific.     

Current changes of the lower troposphere temperature in the Moscow region

Modern climatic changes for 1991–2013 in the lower 4-km layer of the atmosphere in the Moscow region are discussed based on long-term measurements using radiosondes in Dolgoprudny near Moscow and sensors installed on a high mast in Obninsk and on a television tower in Ostankino in Moscow. It is shown that at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century the mean-annual air temperature at all heights from 2 to 4000 m increased by an average of 0.1°C per year. In recent years, the warming has slowed. Over the last two decades, long-term changes were multidirectional, depending on the season: warming in May–December, cooling in January–February, and no statistically significant changes in March and April. The probable reason for the temperature decrease in the middle of the cold period is changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation during recent years (the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in early 2010s). In recent years, the Moscow region climate continentality has increased because of warming in summer and cooling in winter, despite the secular decreasing trend, which was noted before. Mean daily and annual warming rates in Dolgoprudny were higher than in Obninsk. The probable reason is the northward construction expansion and the strengthening of the Moscow heat island. The highest annual temperature amplitude is recorded at heights of 200–300 m.     

Trends of sea surface temperature and sea surface temperature fronts in the South China Sea during 2003–2017

The trends of the sea surface temperature(SST) and SST fronts in the South China Sea(SCS) are analyzed during2003–2017 using high-resolution satellite data. The linear trend of the basin averaged SST is 0.31°C per decade,with the strongest warming identified in southeastern Vietnam. Although the rate of warming is comparable in summer and winter for the entire basin, the corresponding spatial patterns of the linear trend are substantially different between them. The SST trend to the west of the Luzon Strait is characterized by rapid warming in summer, exceeding approximately 0.6°C per decade, but the trend is insignificant in winter. The strongest warming trend occurs in the southeast of Vietnam in winter, with much less pronounced warming in summer. A positive trend of SST fronts is identified for the coast of China and is associated with increasing wind stress. The increasing trend of SST fronts is also found in the east of Vietnam. Large-scale circulation, such as El Ni?o, can influence the trends of the SST and SST fronts. A significant correlation is found between the SST anomaly and Ni?o3.4 index, and the ENSO signal leads by eight months. The basin averaged SST linear trends increase after the El Ni?o event(2009–2010), which is, at least, due to the rapid warming rate causing by the enhanced northeasterly wind. Peaks of positive anomalous SST and negatively anomalous SST fronts are found to co-occur with the strong El Ni?o events.     

东中国海海温在增暖停滞期的变化特征及成因分析

通过HadSST3原始观测数据和HadISST1重组数据,分析了东中国海海温在增暖停滞期(1998-2014年)的变化特征.研究表明:两组数据的海温变化特征和程度相似.在增暖停滞期,渤海、黄海和东海海温线性趋势主要表现为负,降温最多的集中在长江口附近,约-1℃.渤海、黄海及东海部分区域的净热通量对海温降低起正作用,而在...     

Year aridity index patterns in northwest China and the relationship to summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature

Aim to linking the variability of drought in northwest China to the oceanic influence of North Atlantic SSTs at the background of global warming and at the regional climate change shifting stages, year aridity index variations in northwest China and summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature （SST） variations are examined for the 44 a period of 1961-2004 using singular value decomposition （SVD） analysis. Results show that the SST anomalies （SSTA）in the North Atlantic in summer reflected three basic models. The first SVD mode of SST pattern shows a dipole - like variation with the positive center located at southwest and negative center at northeast of extratropical North Atlantic. And it strongly relates to the positive trend in AI variation in northwest China. The second coupled modes display the coherent positive anomalies in extratropical North Atlantic SST and the marked opposite trend of AI variability between north and south of Xinjiang. In addition, the lag correlation analysis of the first mode of SSTA and geopotential heights at 500 hPa variations also shows that the indication of the former influencing the latter configuration, which result in higher air temperature and less precipitation when the SSTA in the North Atlantic Ocean in summer motivated Eurasian circulation of EA pattern, further to influence the wet - dry variations in northwest China by the ocean-to - atmosphere forcing.     

Temporal trends and spatial structures of the sea surface temperature in the Bay of Biscay

A time series spatial grid of sea surface temperature (SST) data provided by the archives of Meteo-France and covering the period 1972–1993 was analysed in order to define both the long-term and periodic (mainly seasonal) components at different locations in the Bay of Biscay. The study confirmed the existence of a long-term increasing trend in the SST, but showed that this trend was not homogeneous over the entire area. It revealed also that the amplitude of the cyclic components (summer-winter differences) is spatially heterogeneous. The south-eastern part of the Bay of Biscay, close to the French—Spanish border, shows the stronger warming trend (a mean increase of 1.4 °C for the period 1972–1993). This trend decreases in the adjacent regions and is not statistically significant in the northern part of the bay and the Celtic Sea. The increasing trend was recorded both in winter and summer periods with the winter slopes being slightly higher. The amplitude of the SST seasonal changes (summer-winter differences) is stronger close to the southern French Atlantic coast in the area off the Gironde estuary. The lowest values were observed in the SW of the bay in the region of intense upwelling processes. Finally, the analysis of the main components of this series provides a simple empirical model describing the time-related changes in the SST. This model could be useful for studies in the field of biological oceanography and in the context of comparative studies. The possible linkage of these observations with changes in the structure of ecosystem in this area is also discussed.     

基于CMIP6模式的热带太平洋海表温度增暖初步评估

热带太平洋是影响全球气候系统的重要区域,热带太平洋海表温度(SST)的长期变化趋势模拟是国际研究领域关注的热点。基于12个参加第六期国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式结果,本研究对1950年至1999年间多模式模拟得到的热带太平洋SST增暖现象进行了初步评估。结果表明,不同模式对热带太平洋SST增暖的模拟能力差别较大,特别在赤道东太平洋区域,部分模式模拟得到了偏强的SST降温趋势,与实际观测中的SST增温趋势相反,多模式集合平均结果给出了中部型厄尔尼诺事件的增温趋势。通过引入SST增暖变率分析方法,本研究对多模式模拟的热带太平洋SST在过去50 a中的增暖内在变化进行了进一步评估,结果表明目前各模式对热带太平洋SST增暖变率模拟偏弱,空间分布差异较大。     

CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。     

Annual and interannual variability in the South-East Atlantic during the 20th century

Long time-series of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress (τ) in six areas in the South-East Atlantic are analysed as possible inputs into fisheries models. The areas encompass oceanic and coastal regimes. A clear seasonal signal is evident in all areas, with an amplitude in SST of 3–4°C in the upwelling areas and 5°C farther offshore and on the Agulhas Bank. Warming lags in the north and offshore by 1–2 months. Monthly variability is highest in the upwelling areas. An increasing trend in SST is suggested in all areas, the post-World War II era being about 1,0°C warmer than earlier periods. Some coherence occurs between areas at times, although at other times the anomalies are distinctly out of phase. There is a suggestion of an upward trend in the equatorward wind stress in some offshore areas after 1964, with a sharp change in 1975. Benguela Niños are evident in the environmental record and have a periodicity of around 10 years.     

The long-term variability of sea surface temperature in the seas east of China in the past 40 a

The global surface temperature change since the mid-19th century has caused general concern and intensive study. However, long-term changes in the marginal seas, including the seas east of China, are not well understood because long-term observations are sparse and, even when they exist, they are over limited areas. Preliminary results on the long-term variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in summer and winter in the seas east of China during the period of 1957-2001 are reported using the Ocean Science Database of Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the coastal hydrological station in situ and satellite data. The results show well-defined warming trends in the study area. However warming and cooling trends vary from decade to decade, with steady and rapid warming trends after the 1980s and complicated spatial patterns. The distribution of SST variation is intricate and more blurred in the areas far away from the Kuroshio system. Both historical and satellite data sets show significant warming trends after 1985. The warming trends are larger and spread to wider areas in winter than in summer, which means decrease in the seasonal cycle of SST probably linked with recently observed increase of the tropical zooplankton species in the region. Spatial structures of the SST trends are roughly consistent with the circulation pattern especially in winter when the meridional SST gradients are larger, suggesting that a horizontal advection may play an important role in the long-term SST variability in winter.     

Seasonal and inter-annual variability in properties of surface water off Santander,Bay of Biscay, 1991–1995

The annual cycle of temperature, salinity and nutrients of surface waters (up to 100 m depth) was studied from June 1991 to December 1995 in a cross-shelf section over the continental shelf waters off Santander (southern Bay of Biscay). The time series showed that the temperature followed the expected seasonal warming and cooling pattern, which determines a seasonal process of stratification and mixing of the water column. The stratification period occurs annually between May and October in a layer of about 50 m depth from the neritic station beyond to the shelf-break. In the period between November and April the water column remained mixed. During spring and summer low salinity values were found in the surface due to continental runoff and advection from oceanic waters. In late autumn and winter, the salinity pattern was governed by an influx of salty water associated with the poleward current. As in other temperate latitudes, nitrates showed the highest values in winter throughout the water column and the lowest values at the surface during the stratified period. Wind-induced upwelling events were observed mainly in summer, which are characterised by low temperatures (< 12°C), high salinity and nutrient concentrations. The inter-annual variability of temperature showed a warming trend in the upper layers but this sign was not found at 100 m depth. In salinity a decreasing trend was observed throughout the water column, and this feature corresponds to the relaxing of the high salinity anomaly detected in the North Atlantic at the beginning of the 1990s. Both trends were coherent in the cross-shelf section from the coast to the slope.     

Coastal oceanic climate change and variability from 1982 to 2009 around South Africa

Changes and fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) around the South African coast are analysed at a monthly scale from 1982 to 2009. There is a statistically significant negative trend of up to 0.5 °C per decade in the southern Benguela from January to August, and a cooling trend of lesser magnitude along the South Coast and in the Port Elizabeth/Port Alfred region from May to August. The cooling is due to an increase in upwelling-favourable south-easterly and easterly winds. There is a positive trend in SST of up to 0.55 °C per decade in most parts of the Agulhas Current system during all months of the year, except for KwaZulu-Natal where warming is in summer. The warming was attributed to an intensification of the Agulhas Current in response to a poleward shift of westerly winds and an increase in trade winds in the South Indian Ocean at relevant latitudes. This intensification of the Agulhas Current could also have contributed to the coastal cooling in the Port Alfred dynamic upwelling region. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly positively correlated at a 95% level with the southern Benguela and South Coast from February to May, and negatively correlated with the Agulhas Current system south of 36° S. The correlation with the Antarctic Annular Oscillation is weaker and less coherent. El Niño suppresses upwelling along the coast, whereas La Niña increases it. Although there does not seem to be a linear relationship between the strength of the ENSO and the magnitude of coastal SST perturbation, El Niño and La Niña appear to be linked to major warm and cool events, respectively, at a seasonal scale in summer in the southern Benguela and along the South Coast. However, care must be taken in interpreting low-resolution reanalysed climate data (ERA40 and NCEP) and optimally interpolated Reynolds SST, such as used here.     

Comparative characteristics of the sea surface temperature derived from data compiled by the Russian Hydrometeorological Centre and US National Meteorological Centre,in application to the El Niño event in 1991–1993

This paper provides calculations and an interpretation of the mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the characteristics of the SST annual harmonic in the equatorial Pacific Ocean from April 1991 to February 1993, using data provided by the Russian Hydrometeorological Centre (RHC) and the US National Meteorological Centre (NMC). The magnitude of the mean annual anomalies and the SST annual harmonic amplitude in typical El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions, as derived from the RHC data set, are shown to be smaller than their NMC data-based counterparts, due to the considerable spatial smoothing of the original data provided by the RHC. However, in terms of quality, the two data sets agree well with one another, and quantitative discrepancies are rarely larger than the standard error of mean monthly SST determination.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Wave climate variability of Taiwan waters

Global sea surface wind field data derived from NCEP reanalysis were used in driving a SWAN wave model to reconstruct historical wave records from 1948 to 2008. The reconstructed wave data were compared and verified by the observation of the data buoys of the Central Weather Bureau and the Water Resources Agency, Taiwan, and the National Data Buoy Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States. Over the past six decades, the wave climate in Taiwan waters has undergone considerable changes. The annual mean significant wave heights have reduced an average of 0.31 cm/year. Winter wave heights have gradually dropped 0.86 cm/year, which are related to the weakening of winter monsoons. Regarding the inter-annual wave climate variation, the influence of El Niño/southern oscillation was substantial; the wave heights increased in La Niña years and decreased in El Niño years. In the past 60 years, extreme wave events have been concentrated in two periods: 1967–1974 and 2000–2008. More severe extreme wave events occurred in the latter compared with the former, and all were induced by typhoons. A clear trend, in which the summer (winter) extreme wave events have increased (decreased) gradually, has been identified. The 1980s was the transition period. After the transition period, the annual occurrence of extreme wave events caused by typhoons exceeded those caused by an intense outbreak of winter cold surges, although the total number of the annual extreme wave events has not changed substantially.