Characterization of Stress Drops on Asperities Estimated from the Heterogeneous Kinematic Slip Model for Strong Motion Prediction for Inland Crustal Earthquakes in Japan

Dense strong motion observation networks provided us with valuable data for studying strong motion generation from large earthquakes. From kinematic waveform inversion of seismic data, the slip distribution on the fault surface of large earthquakes is known to be spatially heterogeneous. Because heterogeneities in the slip and stress drop distributions control the generation of near-source ground motion, it is important to characterize these heterogeneities for past earthquakes in constructing a source model for reliable prediction of strong ground motion. The stress changes during large earthquakes on the faults recently occurring in Japan are estimated from the detailed slip models obtained by the kinematic waveform inversion. The stress drops on and off asperities are summarized on the basis of the stress change distributions obtained here. In this paper, we define the asperity to be a rectangular area whose slip is 1.5 or more times larger than the average slip over the fault according to the previous study for inland crustal earthquakes. The average static stress drops on the asperities of the earthquakes studied here are in the range 6?C23?MPa, whereas those off the asperities are below 3?MPa. We compiled the stress drop on the asperities together with a data set from previous studies of other inland earthquakes in Japan and elsewhere. The static stress drop on the asperity depends on its depth, and we obtained an empirical relationship between the static stress drop and the asperity??s depth. Moreover, surface-breaking asperities seemed to have smaller stress drops than buried asperities. Simple ground motion simulations using the characterized asperity source models reveal that deep asperities generate larger ground motion than shallow asperities, because of the different stress drops of the asperities. These characteristics can be used for advanced source modeling in strong ground motion prediction for inland crustal earthquakes.     

Characterization of the Heterogeneous Source Model of Intraslab Earthquakes Toward Strong Ground Motion Prediction

We characterize the heterogeneous source slip model of intraslab earthquakes to compare source scaling properties with those of inland crustal and subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes. We extracted rupture area (S), total area of asperity (S _a), average slip (D) and average slip on asperity (D _a) of eleven intraslab earthquakes following the procedure proposed by Somerville et al. (Seism Res Lett 70:59?C80, 1999) and proposed the empirical scaling relationship formula of S, S _a, and D for intraslab earthquakes. Under the same seismic moment, an intraslab earthquake has a smaller rupture area and total area of asperity, and smaller average slip than an inland crustal earthquake. The area ratio of asperity area and total rupture area of intraslab earthquakes are similar to those of inland crustal earthquakes. The strong motion generation area (SMGA) scaling of intraslab earthquakes appears self-similar, and those results support the idea the characterized source model of intraslab earthquakes can be modeled in a manner similar to that of inland crustal earthquakes.     

相对局部区域震源参数随机不确定性经验关系研究

在进行未来破坏性地震的强地面运动数值模拟时,震源参数选取的准确性对地震动预测的结果影响很大。震源参数的确定存在很多不确定性因素,既包含随机的不确定性因素,又包含认知的不确定性因素。本文在大量地震事件及文献调研的基础上,运用统计学方法对具备随机不确定性特征的震源参数进行统计研究,以震源参数经验公式的形态建立解释其随机性和不确定性的数学模型。为了研究局部地区震源参数的定标关系特征,获得更加适用于局部地震密集区域,尤其是包含中国大陆地区在内的局部区域的震源参数的经验关系,本文从GCMT地震目录中选取了1 700多个M_W≥5.5的地震事件,运用统计学方法研究地震密集地区的震源参数经验关系,包括震级、地震矩、破裂面积等,增加了相对较大的局部范围内凹凸体的地震样本数量,从统计学角度计算更加适合局部区域的震源参数的经验关系。统计结果表明:局部区域震例获得的震源参数的经验关系与不限区域震例获得的经验关系存在差异,尤其是涉及到断层破裂面积、凹凸体相关参数时差异较大,局部区域内震例获得的震源参数的经验关系将更具有代表性。应用本文获得的相对局部区域的经验公式计算未来破坏性地震的强地面运动所需的震源参数时,获得的地震动预测结果将更能体现目标区域真实的地震动特征,进而提高地震动预测结果的可靠性。      

Prediction of near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active fault

1 Introduction Earthquake disaster investigations show that numerous strong earthquakes were caused by remobilization of active faults. Major casualties and severe damage to buildings as well as signi?cant economic losses resulted from the ground motions of strongearthquakescausedbyactivefaultslocatedbeneath urban areas. Recently, the potential hazard prediction of and its mitigation against active faults located beneath urban areas have become an important research topic for seismologists and…     

Effect of source parameters on forward-directivity velocity pulse for vertical strike slip fault in half space

It has been found that the large velocity pulse is one of the most important characteristics of near-fault strong ground motions. Some statistical relationships between pulse period and the moment magnitude for near-fault strong ground motions have been established by Somerville （1998）; Alavi and Krawinkler （2000）; and Mavroeidis and Papageorgiou （2003）, where no variety of rupture velocity, fault depth, and fault distance, etc. were considered. Since near-fault ground motions are significantly influenced by the rupture process and source parameters, the effects of some source parameters on the amplitude and the period ofa forward-directivity velocity pulse in a half space are analyzed by the finite difference method combined with the kinematic source model in this paper. The study shows that the rupture velocity, fault depth, position of the initial rupture point and distribution of asperities are the most important parameters to the velocity pulse. Generally, the pulse period decreases and the pulse amplitude increases as the rupture velocity increases for shallow crustal earthquakes. In a definite region besides the fault trace, the pulse period increases as the fault depth increases. For a uniform strike slip fault, rupture initiating from one end of a fault and propagating to the other always generates a higher pulse amplitude and longer pulse period than in other cases.     

复杂场地条件下震源参数对断层附近长周期地震动的影响

基于显式有限元方法和运动学震源模型并利用昆明盆地三维地下构造模型,本文研究了震源参数对断层附近长周期地震动的影响.结果表明,断层的破裂方式、埋藏深度、破裂速度以及断层面上位错的不均匀分布对断层附近长周期地震动有重要影响.不同破裂方式下,破裂的方向性强的区域分布不同,由于破裂的方向性效应和复杂场地条件的共同作用,导致不同破裂方式的断层附近地震动分布差别很大.随着破裂速度的增加,方向性效应更加明显,断层附近的长周期地震动也随之增大;对于浅源地震,随着断层埋深的增加,地震动明显下降.对于埋藏深度很浅的断层,当Asperity靠近断层上沿时,会显著增大其在地表投影附近的长周期地震动.能否合理地估计这些基本震源参数,是预测未来发震断层周围地震动场的关键.     

Statistical Analysis of Ground Motions Estimated on the Basis of a Recipe for Strong-motion Prediction: Approach to Quantitative Evaluation of Average and Standard Deviation of Ground Motion Distribution

For seismic hazard assessment, we study the variabilities of predicted ground motion on the basis of a ??recipe for predicting strong ground motion?? and propose approximations to evaluate spatial distributions of the standard deviation for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0 in the estimated ground motions. For strong-motion prediction, we use a finite difference method for a long period range (>1.0?s). To estimate variabilities, a Monte Carlo simulation is used and we adopt the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique to reduce computations. In this article, we consider only aleatory variabilities in source parameters among all possible variabilities, such as those in the source parameters, the propagation characteristics and site characteristics. Model sources are assumed for dip-slip fault and strike-slip fault, and the variabilities are considered for parameters such as asperity location, rupture starting point, average asperity slip contrast, stress drop and rupture velocity. On the target site, 100 instances of PGV, R1.0, R2.0 and R5.0 data are obtained for 100 sets of parameters and an average and a standard deviation of the log normal distribution, corresponding to the variability for ground motion estimation, are statistically analyzed. For all target sites uniformly distributed in the area around the faults, the average and the standard deviation are statistically analyzed and spread to spatial maps. It is found that the spatial distributions of standard deviation values for both the dip-slip and strike-slip faults are not uniform. Approximations are attempted to develop a quantitative evaluation for spatial distributions of the standard deviation of the log normal distribution for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0. The spatial distributions by these approximations are considered to almost reconstruct the characteristics, which are statistically analyzed by the finite difference method.     

Response spectral attenuation relationships for Singapore and the Malay Peninsula due to distant Sumatran‐fault earthquakes

As part of the effort to assess the seismic hazards of Singapore and the Malay Peninsula, representative ground motion prediction models have to be established. Seven existing attenuation relationships developed for shallow crustal earthquakes in stable continent and active tectonic regions are examined, and they are found to consistently over‐predict the ground motions of Sumatran‐fault earthquakes recently recorded in Singapore. This may be attributed to the differences in the regional crustal structures and distance ranges considered. Since the number of recorded ground motions in the region is very limited, a new set of attenuation relationships is derived based on synthetic seismograms. The uncertainties in rupture parameters, such as stress drop, focal depth, dip and rake angles, are defined according to the regional geological and tectonic settings as well as the ruptures of previous earthquakes. Ground motions are simulated for earthquakes with Mw ranging from 4.0 to 8.0, within a distance range from 174 to 1379km. Besides magnitude and distance, source‐to‐station azimuth is found to influence the amplitudes of the ground motions simulated. Thus, the azimuth is taken as an independent variable in the derived ground motion attenuation relationships. The Sumatran‐fault segments that have the potential to generate a specified level of response spectral accelerations in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur are identified based on the newly derived ground motion models. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

实际地形对2010年玉树MS7.1地震动力学破裂过程及地震动特征的影响

基于震源动力学模型,采用曲线网格有限差分法模拟了水平自由地表及实际地形条件下2010年玉树MS7.1地震的震源破裂过程及相应的地面地震动,获取了断层面上的破裂传播过程、最终滑移量分布及峰值地面速度分布,讨论了实际地形对玉树地震破裂过程及相应地震动的影响.基于本文设定的动力学模型,模拟结果显示:断层面上的高应力降是玉树地...     

广州市主要断裂带特征震源模型研究

在广州市目标区内的主要活动断层危险性评价的基础上,综合活断层探测的研究成果和资料,对于具有潜在发震可能的主要断层,基于凹凸体震源模型建模理论进行了特征计算模型的建模。根据断层地震危险性分析确定的断层发震震级和几何参数,进行了断层的宏观参数和微观参数的设定。为通过复核预测方法计算与合成近断层强地震动场和城市危害性评价提供了科学的依据。     

2010年墨西哥Baja Mw7.2地震与中国玉树Mw6.9地震强地震动特征的对比研究

2010年4月4日墨西哥Baja地区发生Mw7.2地震,2人遇难;同年4月14日中国青海省南部玉树地区发生Mw6.9地震,截至2010年4月25日,已造成2220人遇难.有报道指出,玉树地震矩震级小于Baja地震,人员伤亡却远大于后者,主要原因在于玉树地区抗震设防标准低、建筑物抗震性能差.地震造成破坏程度的大小并非仅仅...     

Bounding of near-fault ground motion based on radiated seismic energy with a consideration of fault frictional mechanisms

The energy radiated as seismic waves strongly depends on the fault rupture process associated with rupture speed and dynamic frictional mechanisms involved in the fault slip motion.Following McGarr and Fletcher approach,we derived a physics-based relationship of the weighted average fault slip velocity vs apparent stress,rupture speed and static stress drop based on a dynamic circular fault model.The resultant function can be approximately used to bound near-fault ground motion and seismic energy associated with near-fault coseismic deformation.Fault frictional overshoot and undershoot mechanisms governed by a simple slip-weakening constitutive relation are included in our consideration by using dynamic rupture models named as M-and D-models and proposed by Madariaga(1976) and Boatwright.We applied the above function to the 2008 great Wenchuan earthquake and the 1999 Jiji(Chi-Chi) earthquake to infer the near-fault ground motion called slip weighted average particle velocity and obtained that such model-dependent prediction of weighted average ground velocities is consistent to the results derived from the near-fault strong motion observations.Moreover,we compared our results with the results by McGarr and Fletcher approach,and we found that the values of the weighted average particle velocities we obtained for these two earthquakes are generally smaller and closer to the values by direct integration of strong motion recordings of the near-fault particle velocity waveform data.In other words,if this result comes to be true,it would be a straightforward way used to constrain the near-fault ground motion or to estimate source parameters such as rupture speed,static and dynamic stress drops.     

Seismological asperities from the point of view of dynamic rupture modeling: the 2007 Mw6.6 Chuetsu-Oki,Japan, earthquake

We study the ground motion simulations based on three finite-source models for the 2007 Mw6.6 Niigata Chuetsu-oki, Japan, earthquake in order to discuss the performance of the input ground motion estimations for the near-field seismic hazard analysis. The three models include a kinematic source inverted from the regional accelerations, a dynamic source on a planar fault with three asperities inferred from the very-near-field ground motion particle motions, and another dynamic source model with conjugate fault segments. The ground motions are calculated for an available 3D geological model using a finite-difference method. For the comparison, we apply a goodness-of-fit score to the ground motion parameters at different stations, including the nearest one that is almost directly above the ruptured fault segments. The dynamic rupture models show good performance. We find that seismologically inferred earthquake asperities on a single fault plane can be expressed with two conjugate segments. The rupture transfer from one segment to another can generate a significant radiation; this could be interpreted as an asperity projected onto a single fault plane. This example illustrates the importance of the fault geometry that has to be taken into account when estimating the very-near-field ground motion.     

近场强地震动数值模拟的简化计算方法

近场强地震动除受场地条件的影响外,还受到震源破裂面上子源的空间分布特点、子源破裂先后顺序的强烈控制,基于数值格林函数法的近场强地震动数值模拟方法可以综合考虑震源、传播途径及局部场地条件的影响,对计算过程进行合理简化,分2步完成地震动模拟:第1步,在介质均匀区采用矩张量的解析解计算所有子源在盖层底面的位移,形成下一步有限元计算的输入场;第2步,在盖层介质不均匀区,结合局部人工透射边界技术,采用时、空解耦的波动显式有限元方法计算地表强地震动。在有限断层模型中,采用具有9个力偶的等效地震矩张量表达断层产状、滑动方向等的影响,采用Brune模型定义各子源的滑动时间函数,描述滑动的时、空不均匀分布特征,从而细化震源模型。通过对Northridge地震中4个基岩台站地表地震动的模拟结果和强震记录,验证了此简化计算方法的可行性     

Ground Motion Modeling for Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Near-source Regime: An Asperity Model

—A new, yet simple, method using the asperity model to estimate ground motion in the near-source regime for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses is proposed in this study. This near-source model differs from conventional empirical attenuation equations. It correlates peak ground motions with the local contributing source in terms of the static stress drop released non-uniformly on the causative fault plane rather than with the whole seismic source in terms of magnitude. Here the model is simplified such that ground motions at a rock or firm soil site near extended vertical strike-slip faults are dominated by direct shear waves. The proposed model is tested by comparing its predictions with strong ground motion observations from the 1979 Imperial Valley and the 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. The results have revealed that ground motions in the near-source region can be adequately predicted using the asperity model with appropriate calibration factors. The directivity effect of ground motion in the near-source region is negligible for high-frequency accelerations. The cut-off frequency (?_max?) at a site is an important parameter in the near-source region. Higher values of ?_max yield higher estimates of peak ground accelerations. For high-frequency structures, ?_max should be carefully estimated. In the near- source region both non-uniform and uniform source models can produce non-stationary high-frequency ground motions. Peak motions may not be caused by the nearest sections of the fault (even if the uniform source model is considered).     

Basin and crustal velocity structure models for the simulation of strong ground motions in the Kinki area,Japan

We constructed a prototype of the basin and crustal structure model for the Kinki area, southwest of Japan, for the simulation of strong ground motions of hypothetical crustal and subduction earthquakes. We collected results of the deep seismic velocity profiles obtained by the reflection experiments and seismic imaging results, which were conducted in the Kinki area. The obtained profiles give underground velocity structures of the crust, from the surface to the subducting slab. We also gather the basin velocity structure information of the Osaka, Kyoto, Nara, and Ohmi basins. To examine the applicability of the constructed velocity structure model to the ground motion simulation, we simulated waveforms of an intermediate size event occurred near the source area of the hypothetical subduction earthquakes. Simulated ground motions using the basin and crustal velocity structure model are fairly well reproducing the observations at most of stations, and the constructed basin and crustal velocity structure model is applicable for the long-period ground motion simulations.     

Characterization of Earthquake Strong Ground Motion

— Some underwater landslides are triggered by strong ground motions caused by earthquakes. This paper reviews current concepts and trends in the characterization of strong ground motion. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude-distance-soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near-fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes.     

2013年7月22日甘肃岷县-漳县M_S6.6地震震源破裂过程

2013年7月22日,在甘肃岷县漳县交界处发生MS6.6地震,地震震中位置靠近临潭—宕昌断裂.本文通过构建有限断层模型,利用国家强震动台网中心提供的12条强地面运动三分量资料,通过波形反演方法来研究这次地震的震源破裂过程.结果显示这次地震是发生在甘东南地区岷县—宕昌断裂带东段附近的一次MW6.1级逆冲兼具左旋走滑破裂事件,最大滑动量约为80cm.发震断层走向及滑动性质与岷县—宕昌断裂吻合,推断本次地震与东昆仑断裂向北的扩展和推挤密切相关,是岷县—宕昌断裂进一步活动的结果.     

用连续GPS与远震体波联合反演2015年尼泊尔中部M_S8.1地震破裂过程

由于印度-欧亚板块碰撞,位于板块边界带的喜马拉雅地区大震频繁,但对其活动性的认识仍十分有限.2015年4月25日尼泊尔中东部地区时隔80年再次发生8级地震,为研究板缘地震提供了一次难得机遇.本文用西藏和尼泊尔的GPS连续观测数据和全球分布的远震地震波记录联合反演此次特大地震的破裂过程,结果显示此次地震发生在印度板块与青藏高原接触边界面——喜马拉雅主滑脱断层上.北倾11°、近东西(295°)走向的断层面破裂约100km长(博卡拉到加德满都),130km宽(从加德满都深入我国西藏吉隆县),破裂以逆冲滑动为主,平均幅度达到2.4m,释放的地震矩高达9.4×1020 N·m.反演结果还显示,震源体主要破裂分布深度范围为5~25km,应无地表破裂,属于一次盲地震.基于GPS资料推测的地壳现今运动速率及1833年地震的震源位置,我们推测地震在此次地震破裂区域复发的周期可能为150~200a,而极震区以南的深部滑脱断层仍保持闭锁,未来仍有导致灾害性大震的可能性.