Precipitation extremes in a karst region: a case study in the Guizhou province, southwest China

The topography of hilly landscapes modifies crop environment changing the fluxes of water and energy, increasing risk in these vulnerable agriculture systems, which could become more accentuated under climate change (drought, increased variability of rainfall). In order to quantify how wheat production in hilly terrain will be affected by future climate, a newly developed and calibrated micro-meteorological model for hilly terrain was linked to a crop growth simulation model to analyse impact scenarios for different European regions. Distributions of yield and growing length of rainfed winter wheat and durum wheat were generated as probabilistic indices from baseline and low (B2) and high (A2) emission climate scenarios provided from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3). We used site-specific terrain parameters for two sample catchments in Europe, ranging from humid temperate (southeast UK) to semi-arid Mediterranean (southern Italy). Results for baseline scenario show that UK winter wheat is mainly affected by annual differences in precipitation and yield distributions do not change with terrain, whilst in the southern Mediterranean climate yield variability is significantly related to a slope × elevation index. For future climate, our simulations confirm earlier predictions of yield increase in the UK, even under the high emission scenario. In the southern Mediterranean, yield reduction is significantly related to slope × elevation index increasing crop failure in drier elevated spots but not in wet years under baseline weather. In scenarios for the future, the likelihood of crop failure rises sharply to more than 60%, and even in wet years, yields are likely to decrease in elevated spots.     

Modelling the sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance to climate change in Southeast Australia

A simulation study was carried out to assess the potential sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance components to likely climate change scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia. Specific processes considered include crop development, growth rate, grain yield, water use efficiency, evapotranspiration, runoff and deep drainage. Individual impacts of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) and the combined impacts of these three variables were analysed for 2050 ([CO₂] = 570 ppm, T +2.3°C, P ?7%) and 2070 ([CO₂] = 720 ppm, T +3.8°C, P ?10%) conditions. Two different rainfall change scenarios (changes in rainfall intensity or rainfall frequency) were used to modify historical rainfall data. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate the growth and water balance processes for a 117 year period of baseline, 2050 and 2070 climatic conditions. The results showed that wheat yield reduction caused by 1°C increase in temperature and 10% decrease in rainfall could be compensated by a 266 ppm increase in [CO₂] assuming no interactions between the individual effects. Temperature increase had little impact on long-term average water balance, while [CO₂] increase reduced evapotranspiration and increased deep drainage. Length of the growing season of wheat decreased 22 days in 2050 and 35 days in 2070 conditions as a consequence of 2.3°C and 3.8°C increase in temperature respectively. Yield in 2050 was approximately 1% higher than the simulated baseline yield of 4,462 kg ha^???1, but it was 6% lower in 2070. An early maturing cultivar (Hartog) was more sensitive in terms of yield response to temperature increase, while a mid-maturing cultivar (Janz) was more sensitive to rainfall reduction. Janz could benefit more from increase in CO₂ concentration. Rainfall reduction across all rainfall events would have a greater negative impact on wheat yield and WUE than if only smaller rainfall events reduced in magnitude, even given the same total decrease in annual rainfall. The greater the reduction in rainfall, the larger was the difference. The increase in temperature increased the difference of impact between the two rainfall change scenarios while increase in [CO₂] reduced the difference.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

During this century global warming will lead to changes in global weather and climate, affecting many aspects of our environment. Agriculture is the sector of the United States economy most likely to be directly impacted by climatic changes. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 3) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 4) in response to a set of climate change scenarios. In this paper we assess to what extent, under these same scenarios, water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the US. In addition, we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We apply the 12 climate change scenarios described in Part 1 to the water resources and crop growth simulation models described in Part 2 for the conterminous United States. Drawing on data from Parts 3 and 4 we calculate what the aggregate national production would be in those regions in which grain crops are currently produced by applying irrigation where needed and water supplies allow. The total amount of irrigation water applied to crops declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. Under certain of the scenarios and in particular regions, precipitation decreases so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions precipitation becomes so plentiful that little value is derived from irrigation. Nationwide grain crop production is greater when irrigation is applied as needed. Under irrigation, less corn and soybeans are produced under most of the climate change scenarios than is produced under baseline climate conditions. Winter wheat production under irrigation responds significantly to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO₂] and appears likely to increase under climate change.     

Assessing Winter Wheat Responses to Climate Change Scenarios: A Simulation Study in the U.S. Great Plains

Hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a major crop in the Great Plains region of the U.S. The goal of this assessment effort was to investigate the influence of two contrasting global climate change projections (U.K. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) on the yield and percent kernel nitrogen content of winter wheat at three locations in Nebraska. These three locations represent sub-humid and semi arid areas and the transition between these areas and are also representative of major portions of the winter wheat growing areas of the central Great Plains. Climate scenarios based on each of the projections for each location were developed using the LARS-WG weather generator along with data from automated weather stations. CERES-Wheat was used to simulate the responses for two contrasting cultivars of wheat using two sowing dates. The first sowing date represented current sowing dates appropriate for each location. The second sowing date was later and represents the approximate date when the mean air temperature from the climate scenarios is the same as the mean air temperature from the actual climate data at the current sowing dates. The yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios generally decrease going from the sub-humid eastern to the semi arid western parts of Nebraska. Results from these simulations indicate that yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios could not both be maintained at levels currently simulated. Protein content (directly related to kernel nitrogen content) and end-use quality are the primary determinants for the use of hard red winter wheat in baked goods. Nitrogen management and new cultivars, which can enhance the uptake and translocation of nitrogen, will be proactive steps to meet the challenges of global climate change as represented by these climate scenarios.     

Effect of storm clustering on water balance estimates and its implications for climate impact assessment

Daily and monthly-based water balance computations are made for areas with climates ranging from humid (Coshocton, Ohio) through Mediterranean (Watsonville, California) and semi-arid (Dodge City, Kansas) to arid conditions (Tucson, Arizona). Monthly procedures lead to an underestimate of observed mean annual runoff by 14% in Coshocton, 59% in Tucson, and an overestimate by 9% in Watsonville. Daily balance calculations increase model accuracy. The improvement in runoff estimates by using the daily method is most significant for arid climates. Daily-monthly departures are greater in the semi-arid and arid areas than in the humid and Mediterranean areas. In terms of mean annual runoff, the difference between monthly estimates and daily estimates is 42.5% in arid Tucson, 58.2% in semi-arid Dodge City, but only 8.9% in humid Coshocton and 5.6% in Mediterranean Watsonville. The daily-monthly departures in soil moisture estimates are generally less than 10% in the humid and Mediterranean climates, but well above 50% in most months in the arid and semi-arid climates. Regression analysis indicates the daily-monthly difference in moisture surplus estimates correlates well with the amount of storm clustering within a month. Monthly computations depart increasingly from daily computations as storm clustering increases. The hydrological impacts of changes in storm clustering are studied by forcing the water balance model with daily precipitation sequences based on hypothetical storm scenarios. Total annual moisture surplus tends to increase with increased storm clustering. In the arid and semi-arid climates, the differences between the most and least clustering scenarios equal 35% up to 60% of surplus water generated by normal storms. They are about 20% in the cases of the humid and Mediterranean climates. These results suggest future potential changes in climatic variability such as storm delivery patterns can have significant impacts on water resource availability.     

Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO₂ concentration [CO₂] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO₂], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t?ha^?1, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.     

Modelling the impacts of climate change on wheat yield and field water balance over the Murray�CDarling Basin in Australia

The study used a modelling approach to assess the potential impacts of likely climate change and increase in CO₂ concentration on the wheat growth and water balance in Murray?CDarling Basin in Australia. Impacts of individual changes in temperature, rainfall or CO₂ concentration as, well as the 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios, were analysed. Along an E?CW transect, wheat yield at western sites (warmer and drier) was simulated to be more sensitive to temperature increase than that at eastern sites; along the S?CN transect, wheat yield at northern warmer sites was simulated to be more sensitive to temperature increase, within 1?C3°C temperature increase. Along the E?CW and S?CN transects, wheat at drier sites would benefit more from elevated [CO₂] than at wetter sites, but more sensitive to the decline in rainfall. The increase in temperature only did not have much impact on water balance. Elevated [CO₂] increased the drainage in all the sites, whilst rainfall reduction decreased evapotranspiration, runoff and drainage, especially at drier sites. In 2050, wheat yield would increase by 1?C10% under all climate change scenarios along the S?CN transect, except for the northernmost site (Dalby). Along the E?CW transect, the most obvious increase of wheat yields under all climate change scenarios occurred in cooler and wetter eastern sites (Yass and Young), with an average increase rate of 7%. The biggest loss occurred at the driest sites (Griffith and Swan Hill) under A1FI and B2 scenarios, ranging from ?5% to ?16%. In 2070, there would be an increased risk of yield loss in general, except for the cool and wet sites. Water use efficiency was simulated to increase at most of the study sites under all the climate change scenarios, except for the driest site. Yield variability would increase at drier sites (Ardlethan, Griffith and Swan Hill). Soil types would also impact on the response of wheat yield and water balance to future climate change.     

气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究

利用随机天气模型, 将气候模式对大气中CO₂倍增时预测的气候情景与CERES-小麦模式相连接, 研究了气候变化对我国冬小麦和春小麦生产的可能影响.结果表明, 气候变化后小麦发育将加快, 生育期缩短, 冬小麦平均缩短7.3天, 春小麦平均缩短10.5天, 春小麦生育期缩短的绝对数和相对数均大于冬小麦.籽粒产量呈下降趋势, 冬小麦平均减产7%~8%, 雨养条件下比水分适宜时减产幅度略大.春小麦的减产幅度大于冬小麦, 水分适宜时平均减产17.7%, 雨养时平均减产31.4%.     

SENSITIVITY OF THE RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE, CO2 AND TROPOSPHERIC OZONE CONCENTRATIONS AND SOIL FERTILITY

Russian agriculture sensitivity to changes in climate, soil and atmosphere chemistry were analyzed. Calculated data are presented on crop productivity of grain crops and grasses (C₃) under arid and humid scenarios of climate taking account of one-, two-, three and four-factor natural environment impacts. All four factors under studies (climatic parameters, CO₂ and tropospheric ozone concentrations, soil degradation extent) greatly impact agriculture productivity. The effect of interaction between all considered factors on agroecosystem productivity is studied. It is established that a simple additive scheme for explaining the complex effect of some factors can be much violated. In this case, not only variations in the mean crop yield levels but also variations in the degree of crop stability have been assessed in some regions, that may be more important for determining the social-economic consequences. It turned out that the recurrence of critically very low yields in steppe regions may increase two fold as a result of global warming.     

Sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to CO2-induced climate change: Comparison of four scenarios based on general circulation models

The potential impacts of CO₂-induced climate change on terrestrial carbon storage was estimated using the Holdridge Life-Zone Classification and four climate change scenarios derived from general circulation models. Carbon values were assigned to life-zones and their associated soils from published studies. All four scenarios suggest an increase in area occupied by forests although details of predicted patterns vary among the scenarios. There is a poleward shift of the forested zones, with an increase in the areal extent of tropical forests and a shift of the boreal forest zone into the region currently occupied by tundra. Terrestrial carbon storage increased from 0.4% (8.5 Gt) to 9.5% (180.5 Gt) above estimates for present conditions. These changes represent a potential reduction of 4 to 85 ppm on elevated atmospheric CO₂ levels.     

末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区干湿变化的模拟研究

利用国际古气候模拟对比计划第四阶段的多模式结果,分析了末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区的干湿变化及机制。多模式集合平均结果表明,末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区年降水减少0.7％,其中中亚地区的年降水减少2.8％,新疆地区年降水增加1.8％。水汽收支方程表明,末次间冰期中亚地区在雨季（冬春季）的降水变化主要与垂直动力项有关,新疆地区在雨季（夏季）的降水变化主要与垂直动力与热力项有关。此外,基于Penman-Montieth方法计算的亚洲中部干旱区的干旱指数在末次间冰期减小约10.2％,表明末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区气候明显变干且存在旱区扩张的现象,这主要受到潜在蒸散变化的调控。潜在蒸散的增加进一步受到有效能量增加与地面风速增大的调控。本研究从模拟的角度揭示了末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区干湿变化的可能特征及机制,在一定程度上有助于理解旱区气候在增暖情景下对轨道参数的响应特征。     

Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use in China

Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties from global climate models and emission scenarios, causing difficulties for impact assessments and for planners taking decisions on adaptation measure. Here, we developed an approach to deal with the uncertainties and to project the changes of maize productivity and water use in China using a process-based crop model, against a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961?C1990 values. From 20 climate scenarios output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, we adopted the median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations and driven the CERES-Maize model to simulate maize production under baseline and future climate scenarios. Adaptation options such as automatic planting, automatic application of irrigation and fertilization were considered, although cultivars were assumed constant over the baseline and future. After assessing representative stations across China, we projected changes in maize yield, growing period, evapotranspiration, and irrigation-water use for GMT changes of 1°C, 2°C, and 3°C, respectively. Results indicated that median values of projected decreases in the yields of irrigated maize without (with) consideration of CO₂-fertilization effects ranged from 1.4% to 10.9% (1.6% to 7.8%), 9.8% to 21.7% (10.2% to 16.4%), and 4.3% to 32.1% (3.9% to 26.6%) for GMT changes of 1°C, 2°C, and 3°C, respectively. Median values of projected changes in irrigation-water use without (with) consideration of CO₂-fertilization effects ranged from ?1.3% to 2.5% (?18.8% to 0.0%), ?43.6% to 2.4% (?56.1% to ?18.9%), and ?19.6% to 2.2% (?50.6% to ?34.3%), which were ascribed to rising CO₂ concentration, increased precipitation, as well as reduced growing period with GMT increasing. For rainfed maize, median values of projected changes in yields without (with) consideration of CO₂-fertilization effects ranged from ?22.2% to ?1.0% (?10.8% to 0.7%), ?27.6% to ?7.9% (?18.1% to ?5.6%), and ?33.7% to ?4.6% (?25.9% to ?1.6%). Approximate comparisons showed that projected maize yield losses were larger than previous estimates, particularly for rainfed maize. Our study presents an approach to project maize productivity and water use with GMT increases using process-based crop models and multiple climate scenarios. The resultant impact function is fundamental for identifying which climate change level is dangerous for food security.     

近50年中国干湿气候界线波动及其成因初探

文中在 10a际尺度上详细分析了中国干湿气候界线波动与气候的干湿变化 ,得出 :过去 5 0a中国干湿气候界线波动显著 ,区域差异大 ,呈现出整体移动和东西、南北相异波动的特征。 2 0世纪 6 0～ 70年代中国干湿气候存在一次突变 ,由较湿润变为干旱 ,但各地干旱程度不同。干湿气候界线波动与气候的干湿变化具有显著的年代际特征。在此基础上分析了气候界线波动的可能原因 ,中国干湿气候界线的波动与气候的干湿变化是西太平洋副热带高压强度位置导致的东南季风、孟加拉湾暖流所导致的西南季风以及高原季风、中纬度西风环流等综合作用的结果。中国各地区干湿位相变化不一致 ,区域差异大 ,是不同环流以及环流的不同强弱组合所致。东南季风、西南季风、高原季风、中纬度西风环流、西太平洋副热带高压的年代际变化是过去 5 0a中国干湿气候界线波动与气候干湿变化年代际变化的根本原因。 2 0世纪 6 0～ 70年代的干湿突变 ,是整个北半球大气环流异常的结果     

内蒙古夏季不同气候区短时强降水检验及制定

利用1991—2015年夏季(6—8月)内蒙古地区111个国家气象站小时降水量资料,对内蒙古不同气候区(极干旱、干旱、半干旱、半湿润和湿润)短时强降水(1 h降水量≥20 mm)进行检验分析,采用累积概率方法定义内蒙古夏季不同气候区短时强降水。检验结果表明:内蒙古地区年平均降水量和小时降水量极值自西部极干旱区向东部半湿润、湿润区递增,高值区位于大兴安岭东部,次高值区位于阴山山脉以南。内蒙古极干旱区小时降水量极值低于20 mm,半湿润区和湿润区小时降水量极值高于50 mm,个别站点甚至达到100 mm以上。但在半湿润区和湿润区东部小时降水量超过20 mm年平均发生仅为1次,其余地区均1次。在内蒙古极干旱区、干旱区、半干旱区、半湿润区和湿润区小时降水量分别达到6.1、9.8、12.5、15.2和14.3 mm·h~(-1)属于极端降水事件,小时降水量≥20 mm不宜作为内蒙古短时强降水定义。综合上述研究,结合内蒙古地区地形、地貌等因素,将内蒙古极干旱区和干旱区短时强降水定义为5 mm·h~(-1),半干旱区、半湿润区和湿润区短时强降水定义为10 mm·h~(-1)。     

Assessing the impact of climate change on representative field crops in Israeli agriculture: a case study of wheat and cotton

Climate changes, associated with accumulation of greenhouse gases, are expected to have a profound influence on agricultural sustainability in Israel, a semi-arid area characterized by a cold wet winter and a dry warm summer. Accordingly this study explored economic aspects of agricultural production under projected climate-change scenarios by the “production function” approach, as applied to two representative crops: wheat, as the major crop grown in Israel’s dry southern region, and cotton, representing the more humid climate in the north. Adjusting outputs of the global climate model HadCM3 to the specific research locations, we generated projections for 2070–2100 temperatures and precipitations for two climate change scenarios. Results for wheat vary among climate scenarios; net revenues become negative under the severe scenario (change from −145 to −273%), but may increase under the moderate one (−43 to +35%), depending on nitrogen applied to the crop. Distribution of rain events was found to play a major role in determining yields. By contrast, under both scenarios cotton experiences a considerable decrease in yield with significant economic losses (−240 and −173% in A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). Additional irrigation and nitrogen may reduce farming losses, unlike changes in seeding dates.     

Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agriculturalcrops under climate change in the Southeastern USA

Summary  It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO₂, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO₂ were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium , the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO₂ were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming. Received July 20, 1999/Revised April 18, 2000     

人工增雨是缓和干旱半干旱地区水资源匮乏的一个补充途径

第三纪开始青藏高原隆升,改变了东亚的地理和大气环流的格局,由此形成了西北以干旱和半干旱为主的气候条件,但也存在相对的干湿气候的时期性摆动。近若干年即便新疆等地一些地方降水有所增加,但仍难缓解西北的干旱和半干旱状态,必须思考及运用工程措施解决水资源的匮乏问题。合理节约用水,进行水利工程调配是解决此问题的主要有效途径,但充分运用在有条件的地方人工增雨也是一个有益的补充方式。人工增雨也因其科学技术上尚不十分成熟和难于检验的事实,受到一部分科学工作者所质疑。本文简单地论述了人工增雨的科学性,国内外的一些实践证明的有效性及在西北干旱和半干旱地区人工增雨的可行性和关键点,以此希望能推动此项工作的开展,从流经我国西北上空的大气中多转换一些水汽形成雨(雪)降落在我国大地上,为缓和干旱作一些贡献。     

Fluctuations of the Semi-Arid Zone in China, and Consequences for Society

Herein, we calculate an aridity index, D, based on annual precipitation, P, and measured evaporation, PET, from φ20 evaporation pans: D = P/PET. The data were collected between 1951 and 1999 at 295 meteorological stations operated by the Chinese Meteorological Administration. On the basis of the index, three climatic regions are recognized in China: an arid zone in which D ≤ 0.20, a semi-arid zone with 0.20 < D ≤ 0.50, and a humid zone in which D > 0.50. Temporal fluctuations of the climate boundaries are substantial, and differ significantly regionally, and have the shifting features in the same direction in some areas and in opposite directions in others over the past 50 years. The semiarid zone lies along the border of the monsoon, and is thus highly susceptible to environmental change in China. In the period from the late 1960s to the early 1970s, the climate became drier in most parts of the regions of northern China. Moreover, the drought has an increasing trend. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the alternation from drier to wetter climate have substantial inter-decadal features. The main factors affecting the fluctuations in climate boundaries are the East Asian summer monsoon, the Indian Monsoon, the plateau monsoon in Tibetan Plateau, the westerly circulation, and the West Pacific Subtropical High. The different types of circulation and the strength of these circulations result in regional and temporal differences in aridity. Inter-decadal variations of the dry- and wet climate boundary fluctuations and of the arid and humid climate result from the inter-decadal changes of East Asian summer monsoon, Indian Monsoon, plateau monsoon, westerly circulation, and West Pacific Subtropical High. The anomalous general atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the late 1960s to the early 1970s is the cause of the remarkable change in arid and humid climate in China. Major natural disasters produced by arid and humid change are drought and flood disasters. They cause enormous economic losses to agriculture and industry. Furthermore, the loss has a substantial increasing trend. More than 110 cities are in severe water-deficiency conditions because of shortage of water resource in China. Drought has been a limiting factor of economic and social development in China.     

Impacts of carbon dioxide warming on climate and man in the semi-arid tropics

Tropical semi-arid climates occur between 10 and 35 deg latitude and are characterised by highly variable summer rainfall of between 300 and 750 mm in a rainy season of at least 4 months, generally adequate for rainfed cropping but with considerable drought risk. They support a mesic savanna vegetation. They have a land extent of 4.5 million km², mainly occupied by Third World nations with rapidly increasing populations which in the main are predominantly rural and largely agricultural with low per capita incomes, consequently vulnerable to climate change. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ by the year 2030 is predicted to cause a rise in equilibrium mean temperature of 1–3 °C; however there is continuing uncertainty regarding the consequences for rainfall amount, variability and intensity, length of rainy season or the frequency of extreme rainfall events. Two scenarios are considered, with reduction and increase in rainfall respectively, involving corresponding latitudinal shifts in present climatic boundaries of about 200 km. Because of their variability, a clear signal of the greenhouse effect on these climates may be delayed, whilst regional responses may differ. Vegetational and hydrological responses under the alternative scenarios are considered. The possible consequences for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, water and energy supplies and disease and pest ecology are discussed. Lands of the semi-arid tropics are already extensively desertified, with consequent lowered productivity and heightened vulnerability to drought, and the possible impacts of greenhouse warming on desertification processes and on measures for land rehabilition to the year 2030 are reviewed. Measures to conserve the biological diversity of savanna lands in face of greenhouse warming are discussed.     

Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China

This article reviews recent progress in semi-arid climate change research in China.Results indicate that the areas of semiarid regions have increased rapidly during recent years in China,with an increase of 33%during 1994-2008 compared to 1948-62.Studies have found that the expansion rate of semi-arid areas over China is nearly 10 times higher than that of arid and sub-humid areas,and is mainly transformed from sub-humid/humid regions.Meanwhile,the greatest warming during the past 100 years has been observed over semi-arid regions in China,and mainly induced by radiatively forced processes.The intensity of the regional temperature response over semi-arid regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities.The decadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is modulated by oceanic oscillations,which induce land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts and affect the intensities of westerlies,planetary waves and blocking frequencies.In addition,the drier climates in semi-arid regions across China are also associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon in recent years.Moreover,dust aerosols in semi-arid regions may have altered precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.Finally,semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand in the 21st century,which will increase the risk of desertification in the near future.